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> Predict: Phoenix, Debut predictions
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Predict: Phoenix
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Joe.
post Sep 23 2018, 01:41 PM
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Finally album 2 is coming! How will it do?
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Joe.
post Sep 23 2018, 02:02 PM
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Iíve gone for #3 with around 32k
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danuary
post Sep 23 2018, 03:16 PM
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#2 with just over 30k (picked the 31-40 bracket). It's up against Take That so there's really not much chance of a #1 for Rita.
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SamJudd
post Sep 23 2018, 05:26 PM
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Gone for #1 debut with a 41-50k opening.
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soundseekerz
post Sep 23 2018, 07:55 PM
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I went for #2 with 31-40K
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Joe.
post Oct 2 2018, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(danG @ Sep 23 2018, 04:16 PM) *
#2 with just over 30k (picked the 31-40 bracket). It's up against Take That so there's really not much chance of a #1 for Rita.


23rd is the rumoured date for Little Mix too.
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Tawdry Hepburn
post Oct 2 2018, 01:57 PM
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#6 with 23k
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Cremey
post Oct 2 2018, 01:59 PM
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Itís up against Yandhi now too. No idea how thatíll do but could be competition.
Looking like a huge week for releases.
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Theo.
post Oct 2 2018, 02:37 PM
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So her competition to be top 10 that week, including albums already out, is:

A Star Is Born OST (depending how well the film holds up in the box office)
Alfie Boe - As Time Goes By
Cliff Richard - Rise Up
Dua Lipa - Dua Lipa (depending how well the re-release holds up)
Eminem - Kamikaze (possibly)
The Greatest Showman OST (will definitely still be top 5/10 with the sing-along edition out)
Jess Glynne - Always In Between (her debut album spent its first 39 weeks in the top 10)
Kanye West - Yandhi
Little Mix - TBA
Michael Bublť - Love
Mumford & Sons - Delta
Muse - Simulation Theory (their last album spent its first two weeks at #1 and five weeks top 10 in total)
Queen - Bohemian Rhapsody OST (ditto ASIB OST)
Take That - Odyssey

And I'm sure there are more albums to be released in November that haven't been announced yet. Little Mix, Take That, Michael Bublť and Mumford & Sons will all definitely chart above her (the latter two are released on the 17th and will likely be that week's top two). She should chart higher than Cliff and Kanye but the latter will likely have huge streaming numbers which may push her out of the top five sad.gif

So the highest that I think she can achieve in the first week is #5 with about 27k sold although hopefully the label won't be discouraged by its position and focus on pushing album sales in the New Year. Brits nominations will be announced at the end of January so fingers crossed she gets asked back to perform next year.
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Joe.
post Oct 4 2018, 05:24 PM
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I think she can do about 35k with some good promo (She already has X Factor booked I'm told) and the fact her single will most likely smashed. I agree she might end up 4/5 but I think the sales might surprise people!
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Jay ☆
post Oct 4 2018, 08:05 PM
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Gosh it is looking set to be a busy release period. Hmm I agree with Joe, I'll predict #4 and sales in the region of 31 - 40k.
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Feel_The_Fever
post Oct 5 2018, 01:55 AM
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Number 6 and less than 25000.
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Mack.
post Oct 25 2018, 11:10 AM
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#7 with 23k first week sales.

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Jordan Lee
post Nov 18 2018, 02:45 PM
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43,000

#4 debut behind Take That, Buble and Little Mix.

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Tawdry Hepburn
post Nov 19 2018, 10:54 PM
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QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Oct 2 2018, 01:57 PM) *
#6 with 23k


I'm gonna keep the same position, but the sales probably above 30k now that 'Let You Love Me' has been a really big hit.
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slowdown73
post Nov 21 2018, 12:30 AM
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Might be optimistic but Iíve gone for no2 with sales of 40-50k. I think Take That will be no1 but Rita May sell more in the long run than them!
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Jordan Lee
post Dec 30 2018, 02:21 PM
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Almost all of us over estimated her sad.gif
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slowdown73
post Jan 1 2019, 08:31 PM
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The album has drastically under-performed what many expected. Why do people think that might be? I think the release strategy has been wrong. The album should have come much sooner after the first single. Itís been a year since Anywhere and longer since your song. Clean Bandit have suffered a similar fate. Albums used to be released after the first or second single and even more of a need to do this now in the streaming era when albums are in less demand.
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Jordan Lee
post Jan 3 2019, 12:38 PM
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QUOTE(slowdown73 @ Jan 1 2019, 08:31 PM) *
The album has drastically under-performed what many expected. Why do people think that might be? I think the release strategy has been wrong. The album should have come much sooner after the first single. Itís been a year since Anywhere and longer since your song. Clean Bandit have suffered a similar fate. Albums used to be released after the first or second single and even more of a need to do this now in the streaming era when albums are in less demand.


With Clean Bandit they have other artists on nearly every song they release and theyíre partly the reason why they have success. Theyíre kinda like David Guetta and Calvin where theyíre just not album artists but will always be big on singles.

With Rita I think the album shouldíve came sooner. But maybe not in Q4 maybe if she released the album in February it couldíve done a bit better. It underperformed but itís held up better than I imagined after seeing the week 2 drop, itís set to climb further this week to just outside the top 20. I think the Xmas rush meant she got lost in the mix as housewives faves like Buble, Olly, Take That released then older acts like Cliff overshadowed her slightly.

The album coming after so many singles though I donít see many more being released unless she re releases the album later this year.
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Joe.
post Jan 3 2019, 01:02 PM
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Meh, i think the album is holding up just fine. Itíll be an easy 150k for her by this time next year at least Iíd say. Itís back up to #20 in the mids today.
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