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Posted by: Iz 🌟 16th April 2024, 02:09 PM

Today is the deadline to register to vote if you have an election in your area this year at the locals - so a good time to start this topic about the next big step on the road to the general, and of course electing representatives for the nitty-gritty of local politics.

Not all areas have an election, this year it is largely councils in England that had their last local elections scheduled for 2020 but were in actual fact delayed to 2021. You can find out if there is an election in your area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_local_elections for a start.

Several mayors are also up for election including London, Manchester and West Midlands, the first of which is going to be the biggest individual race of the night. It also includes Police & Crime Commissioner elections across England and Wales, which will give most places in E&W an election they can vote in even if it is not the usual council election.

As with last year, you have to show a valid photographic ID to vote at the polling station.

Last time the Conservatives won a lot of these seats, so you might expect they have a lot to lose.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 16th April 2024, 03:07 PM

Disgusting that they copied the far right's voter suppression from the usa

Posted by: Smint 16th April 2024, 05:54 PM

I'll definitely be voting Sadiq Khan over Susan Hall in London and despite all the horrific abuse he gets, don't think he's got anything to worry about in terms or the result.

Posted by: Envoirment 16th April 2024, 07:40 PM

Looking forward to seeing Susan lose spectacularly.

Also a lot of the abuse Sadiq gets is from white people who live outside London. I'll let you put the rest together on a big reason why he gets so much of it. It makes me angry to see so many abusive and dismissive comments of him on social media only to see the people critisising are not even London residents.

Of course that's not to say he is perfect or exempt from criticism.

Also a lot of what people moan about being "his fault" is actually the fault of the government Particularly about TFL and the terms and conditions they imposed on the bailout of TFL during the pandemic. All those "bring Boris back" people - Boris is the reason TFL no longer gets government funding I cannot wait for the Tory government to be decimated in the next election.

Posted by: Steve201 16th April 2024, 08:46 PM

It’ll be interesting to see the votes in the London suburbs as it’ll show how the GE might go in the less obviously Labour areas albeit it might be affected by local issues like last year!

Posted by: Chez Wombat 16th April 2024, 09:18 PM

I can see him struggling a bit more in the outer areas (including where I am, quite vocal anti-ULEZ/Khan in general here), but that shouldn't cost him it overall. Last time, the government were riding the vaccine boost pre-partygate and actually seemed fairly popular, with how badly they've done in every election recently, I can't see this being any different.

I'm undecided myself, Khan is way overhated and I do think he is quite powerless with the government we have, but at the same time, I'd struggle to name a big positive outside of free school meals. I'd take him in a heartbeat over Susan Hall though (Her 'mugging' story is utterly hilarious) if that's the way the wind's blowing.

Posted by: Envoirment 17th April 2024, 07:39 PM

I would say as much as people moan about the ULEZ I am glad he has been so stern in its implementation and expansion. Since his time in office, Khan has done really well in regards to air pollution. Latest report into air pollution in London shows big decreases from 2016-2023 and air pollution is decreasing in London faster than the rest of the UK.

https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-dramatic-improvements-londons-air-quality-2016

Still plenty of work to be done, but as a London resident I am very happy about that.

Posted by: Smint 21st April 2024, 11:28 AM

One of the most (out of many, many) depressing themes in modern politics is when even the most minimal attempts to reverse the undisputedly scientifically proven damage of climate heating is met with the most well funded aggressive, mendacious, non compliant reaction. What hope have we - the science and environment doesn't care about people's reaction. What kind of future are we providing for the next generation?

Re: the London mayoral election, I note the Evening standard (owned by a Russian Tory donor) had on its cover the other day picture of Khan and Hall's profile with a headline saying that Susan Hall was closing the gap in Mayoral opinion polls. You would have assumed from the cover that it was neck and neck but it turned out that Khan was still NINETEEN points ahead and she had only reduced the gap by 7 points. So misleading like so much of our toxic, biased rubbish media.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 29th April 2024, 01:17 PM

The North East Mayoral Election will be an interesting with independent candidate Jamie Driscoll now neck and neck with the Labour candidate Kim McGuiness. Results of that one expected during the afternoon on May 3rd.

Posted by: Smint 29th April 2024, 01:30 PM

Driscoll seems really good. So upfront, honest and wanting to help the people. Much better than a Starmer stooge.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 29th April 2024, 01:57 PM

He is the talk on everybody's lips!! Supported striking workers, a socialist, and kicked from Labour for being too left ieng during the Establishmemtarian Starmer's Leftist Purge. The problem is, with the split left vote, Tories mighr get in, thanks to the scabs

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 29th April 2024, 03:50 PM

The https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/north-east-poll-suggests-a-dead-heat-between-mcguinness-and-driscoll/ - they're polling ridiculously low - Reform would have a better chance at taking the top place in event of the vote being split - but it looks as though the winner will be either Driscoll or McGuiness even with a split vote. The strange thing is one of the biggest groups Driscoll is actually 2019 Conservative voters who you'd expect to resent everything a old left winger like him stands for. I think McGuiness will win it but only because of people worried Reform/The Tories could take it with a split left wing vote.

Posted by: Steve201 29th April 2024, 06:39 PM

Starmer is just a state plant!

Posted by: Doctor Blind 29th April 2024, 09:43 PM

I've been following this since he started his fundraiser last spring. Such an impressive politician, definitely in the job for all the right reasons, speaks sense and campaigns in a way that feels very inclusive and speaks to people offering hope and vision for the future. I'd really hope he could cause an upset this week and just squeak through to victory, he really deserves it.

He decided to quit the Labour party and run as an independent after he was dropped from the shortlist (despite being the incumbent) because he *shock horror* https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-65798765!!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 29th April 2024, 09:45 PM

100%!!

Posted by: Smint 29th April 2024, 09:53 PM

Utterly pathetic..all of the anti semetism smears of the Corbyn years are proved to be utterly bullshit.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 29th April 2024, 11:24 PM

Just a way for the establishment snd their plant to destroy the left wing. It was a purge.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 30th April 2024, 05:12 AM

He wasn't technically incumbent for the position as the North East Mayor (and the new North East Mayoral Combined Authority) is a new position that covers the entire north east rather than just the North of Tyne mayor area that he was elected mayor for. This new post replaces that. Most of the new Mayoral area have previously only had 'not directly elected mayors' to cover the smaller council areas.

But yes he was dropped for refusing to condemn comments made by Ken Loach after Loach - who made some unsavoury comments about jews and Israel - not because Loach is a socialist or just for appearing with him as Driscoll's team have tried to spin it it as. I'm honestly undecided on who to vote for but I'm certainly not naïve enough to fall for this framing that he was kicked out just for being a left-winger - had he been grown up enough to apologise rather than blinkered by his factionalism he'd be on the ballot.

Posted by: Smint 30th April 2024, 08:27 AM

Whereas Tories who vote for crippling austerity year after year to damage the poorest and most marginalised and support Prime Ministers and Home Secretaries who stir up racism and demonise immigrants like Christian Wakeford and Dan Poulter are welcomed to the Labour party with open arms nowadays and given key roles.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 30th April 2024, 03:41 PM

Neither of them should have been let into the party - that doesn't mean antisemitism doesn't exist.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 30th April 2024, 05:34 PM

Strange it existed under Corbyn only, and then vanished overnight once an establishment plant was in charge... There is a lot more antisemitism over on the right as well!

Posted by: Steve201 30th April 2024, 11:32 PM

Of course unfortunately anti semetism exists but it’s now used as a smear to discredit any person with an alternative viewpoint rather than confronting what is rascism through and through. These smears totally undermine actual antisemitism we should all fight against daily and any other form of fascism of course!

Posted by: Smint 1st May 2024, 09:10 PM

Tomorrow's poll day. Got my passport to hand and ready to vote Khan. The odds and polls look great for him but even though inconvenient to vote (as missed postal deadline and had planned to be elsewhere) learned after Brexit, where I voted Remain at the last minute, that can't take anything for granted.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 1st May 2024, 09:28 PM

Disgusting we need photo id. Has estanlishment plant Starmer said anything about getting rid of that? Oor keeping it?

Posted by: Steve201 1st May 2024, 10:19 PM

In NI we have always needed photo ID, it’s really just a part of voting and no big deal to me. I usually bring the National ID card I get with my full Irish passport which is accepted and fits in my wallet beside my back cards!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 1st May 2024, 11:21 PM

It's not a part of voting. What it is is a pwrt of voter suppression.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 2nd May 2024, 05:43 AM

I'd imagine he'll keep a system that's designed to and does prevent voter fraud, it would be a rather bad luck weird if he got rid of it. The next step should be getting rid of postal voting so people can't coerce family members to vote the same way as them and show them it as is common in some communities.

Everybody has had plenty of warning that they need Voter ID to vote - and the longer we have it the more I agree with it. It's almost shown up how open to abuse the old system was given they never even checked your poll card and just took it at face value you were who you said you were.

Posted by: Iz 🌟 2nd May 2024, 07:01 AM

Yeah sadly it's one of those laws, much like the draconian protest laws, that's hard to repeal as the reasons why will sound arcane and weird in the media even when they're perfectly good like 'improve access to voting' and 'stop people being arrested because the government says so' - the media (and many in the government tbf) will see 'allows voter fraud' (even though the cases of voter fraud are infinitesimally small while the number of people who lose their vote as a result is... not) and 'gives protesters a free pass'.

So it'll probably be a law that makes everyone's life worse but is never gotten rid of because the impetus is always more bureaucracy never less.

Only way I can see it being repealed is if it's conclusively proven in a study to deter people from disadvantaged backgrounds from voting and that'll take a few election cycles, during which more people will get ID - while it still pushes apathetic people away from voting.

anyway yay voting time

Posted by: Smint 2nd May 2024, 12:51 PM

My concern is that to have a lot of people turn up to a certain area with their passports in hand could be a green light for criminals*, not to mention an opportunity to lose the passport itself (done that once before and such a hassle!) Especially at the General Election when more crowded.

*Obviously that happens at airports but there's more security there

I might think of getting a form of photo ID purely for voting purposes as it makes me feel uneasy.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 01:16 PM

That's beyond ridiculous. There qere hafdly any cases of fraud, ever, ever, ever, in voting. Ever. All it does is stop people from actuqlly voting. It's very easyto say, fo get photo id,but apathetic voters won't bother, people might forget rhe id and nor go back, oe some might not be able to afford a passport etc.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 2nd May 2024, 02:08 PM

They need to get rid of postal voting and make everyone vote in person with ID. it's coercion not fraud that's the biggest issue.

Most countries around the world use voter ID. It's frankly absurd we used to just take people at face value that they were who they said they were to be honest. The fact we still do for postal votes is absurd.

It's not that hard to get Photo ID, and most people have multiple anyway. It's one of the few things this government has done that makes any sense.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 03:35 PM

Compare how many cases of frsud there were vs how many tuened away for not having id. I'll wait x Many people simply cannot afford photo id, so why does a poor person's vote not get to count?

Postal votes are fine, except dor thst they are run by Tories ans the Blojo evil government knew what the postal votes werd saying LONG before election day... Plus them going missing in student areas... if there is corruption there, it's based on voter suppression ans Tory sleaze, not on people. People can be trusted to have postal votes; the Tory establishment on the other hand...

Voter id, ans any restrictions on postal voting, is abelist, authoritarian tosh, that only seeks to suppress the vote of the poorer among us and those with debilitating conditions. Tske away postal votes and suddsnly you depreive agorraphobic people of a vote, people with social anxities, some autistic people, and some disabled people or people with mobility/ transport/ time/ family issues.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 2nd May 2024, 03:47 PM

I personally think it should be scrapped, it disenfranchises would-be voters, many of which are elderly and/or vulnerable and aren't necessarily aware of this change in the rules since 2023.



Jacob Rees-Mogg said:

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 03:49 PM

Boom!! 100% it disenfranchises the vulnersble AND the apathetic, disproportionately affects the poor and deprived and, as we all knew and as confirmed by Reese Smogg its ONLY PURPOSE WAS TO SUPPRESS THE LABOUR VOTE!! They copied the American right wingers, just as they did with gerrymandering the constituencies. Evil party.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 2nd May 2024, 04:09 PM

I can't debate with people who are this blinkered by their own support for certain parties. I just can't. The Boundary Commission - an independent body that has nothing to do with the Conservatives - redraw the boundaries based on population sizes and other factors. It's not gerrymandering and would have happened regardless of party in power.

Everyone has had plenty of warning they need ID to vote - if they don't have it by now that's on them.

The Tories are evil - as evidenced by their attitude to disability benefits in recent days - but lets not make stuff up.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 2nd May 2024, 04:58 PM

Did enjoy this though:

Quite a few total Hunts in the Conservative Party aren't there...

Posted by: Hassaan 2nd May 2024, 05:05 PM

Looking forward to an annihilation of the Tories.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 05:13 PM

The commission reacts to instructions handed down by THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY! The whole redrawing of the boundary map and REDUCING THE NUMBER OF MPS - again, dictated by thr TORIES, ans kot any external advice - was a political choice by the government, not an expediente political reality. Those posh nrolib evil twats never have anyone's interrsts at heart but their own. It wasn't for the good of thr country, or for parliament; it was designed to improve their own electoral successes. They wanted a one party authoritarian Tory state.

Again, this voter id law is arbitrary and unnecessary and NEVER REQUIRED BEFORE. It disenfranchises people, and some cannot afford it, others do not have the time, or have mental health issues that preclude them doing so, to go and get id. It makes a mockery of democracy. Time for ranked voting proportional reprrsentation and with no voter id laws. That will sort it.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 2nd May 2024, 05:32 PM

You might be disappointed - the polls are almost always worse for the Tories than the reality.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 05:34 PM

That hasn't been true for some years now.

Posted by: Liam sota 2nd May 2024, 06:10 PM

For London mayor I voted Susan hall mainly because I don't like sadiq, he's been around too long and hasn't done anything worthwhile I suspect he will win in a close race

Posted by: Hassaan 2nd May 2024, 06:14 PM

I think it's different now though. There seems to be an even greater sentiment of "we're sick of the Tories" and it's not just online noise, like it might have felt like in 2019.

Posted by: Iz 🌟 2nd May 2024, 06:25 PM

I don't think it happened but never wise to dismiss out of hand the governing party interfering in an independent commission's business, especially as it's projected to favour them further even after their winning 4 elections in a row. Very healthy to be vigilant over levers of democracy as this Tory party have shown they're not above similar things like stacking the media with friends to weigh the scales in their favour there.

Polling has long taken into account 'shy Tory' effects and all signs point towards it really being that bad for them this time. When they're putting up absolutely dreadful candidates like Susan Hall and even their best (Street and Houchen) are being talked about in terms of 'just about hanging on', there's very few ways they come out of this round with their dignity intact.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 06:38 PM

She's just more Tory trash. Sadiq is 100 times the politician that Tory could ever be.

Posted by: Envoirment 2nd May 2024, 07:05 PM

Hoping that Sadiq wins by a landslide and the battle between him and Susan turns out to not be close at all. Susan is nothing but a bag of lies and her party are directly or indirectly responsible for a lot of the aggrevation voters have had with Sadiq Khan about things like ULEZ/Knife Crime/TFL etc.

She's nothing but slogans.

I think things will be better for London as a whole with Sadiq as mayor with a likely labour government coming to power - removing the current tactic of the conservatives forcing him to do unpopular things and getting the blame instead of the government.

Posted by: Liam sota 2nd May 2024, 07:13 PM

I don't rate him at all. I'm not really a fan of lawyers in general they always seem sketchy. Susan Hall doesn't seem the brightest but at this point anyone would be a nice change from Sadiq. I also don't like the idea of 3 terms, it becomes too much. For me a mayor should get two terms then leave but he won't step down for another candidate, too power hungry.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 07:44 PM

I hope Labour are taking note! They should have employed these same dirty tcatics vs Blojo as mayor. He eas useless anyway.

Posted by: Iz 🌟 2nd May 2024, 08:00 PM

Sadiq's managed to be the most powerful elected Labour official in the country for several years prior and has been relatively effective as a lawmaker for London, even taking party loyalty out of the equation he's a much better candidate than any of his opponents I think on most metrics.

Yes three terms is a fair amount of time and I might have expected him to return to MP so he could run for party leader at the next available opportunity, but well, it's not a presidency, we don't need to be enforcing 2-term limits and the effective incumbent is still up for giving it another go.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd May 2024, 08:01 PM

The Tories changed the law so that the government controls what the Electoral Commission's priorities are.

There is no evidence that voter ID fraud is a significant issue. The voter ID requirements are an attempt to tackle a problem that doesn't exist. Just look at what would be needed to change the outcome of an election.

First, the party planning to commit the fraud would need to identify which seats will be decided by wafer-thin majorities. That is almost impossible. Then, they would have to find people on the electoral register who will definitely not vote. Get that wrong, and a problem will be identified when the second person claiming to be that voter turns up. The party attempting to commit fraud would need to recruit dozens of fake voters for each polling station. The more people involved, the greater the risk of the fraud being detected. It simply isn't practical.

Posted by: Smint 2nd May 2024, 08:14 PM

Guess Burnham and Khan are staying put as they can implement policies/take positions not as predictable or reactionary as Starmer. Not worth it whilst Starmer is rock solid in the Labour Party. Shame what could have been though as both are miles more human and seem to want to change things for the better.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 08:59 PM

PREACH!!!

Tories are to blame for this electioneering and gerrymandering. Amazinf that some see how corrupt and evil the partu is, its dodgy links with postal votes at the last election, irs i troduction of id laws ro disenfranchise people they presumed would be Labour voters - shot themselves in the foot - they thrn go, oh, but I'm SURE it's just a COINCIDENCE that this clear attempt at gerrymandering just HAPPENS to also favour the corrupt rifht wingers in power! Jesus H Christ!!!

Posted by: Steve201 2nd May 2024, 09:22 PM

It helps stop voter fraud which is surely a good thing?

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd May 2024, 09:26 PM

Where is the evidence that voter fraud is a problem?

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 09:30 PM

There is no voter fraud. It is taking a sledgehammer to a corkboard. 2.3 million are now ineligible to vote thanks to id laws, plus however many forget and don't bother returning to the polling station, or don't have the time to return. It also deprives the poorest of the right to vote, which is a VERY historical Tory thing to do. Id voting is not needed at all.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 10:03 PM

LMAO!!! SWINE IN CHIEF, BLOJO JOHNSON, WAS TURNED AWAY DUE TO HIS OWN VOTER ID LAWS!!! They were never interested in TORIES needing id; they always just wanted to affect Labour's voteshare.

Posted by: Hassaan 2nd May 2024, 10:17 PM

The cynic in me thinks he did that on purpose for the sake of the headlines and the attention.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 10:22 PM

But why draw attention ro his disastrously authoritarian law?

Posted by: Hassaan 2nd May 2024, 10:26 PM

Maybe so they can justify it or something.

Plus it's Boris Johnson. He'd do anything for attention.

I mean, this is just catnip for the Facebook mums who think he's a loveable funny man.

Posted by: Smint 2nd May 2024, 10:33 PM

Polls closed but hours to wait for any decent news it seems.....Saturday for big mayoral elections inc London

Posted by: Steve201 2nd May 2024, 10:34 PM

Half the votes in the Belfast West elections come from people buried in Miltown Cemetary!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 10:43 PM

That is not true.

Posted by: Steve201 2nd May 2024, 10:45 PM

Our forecast for Blackpool South:

LAB: 50% (+12)
CON: 30% (-20)
REF: 14% (+8)
GRN: 5% (+3)
LDEM: 3% (-)

Any interesting forecast here by You Gov for Blackpool South with all the parties polling what the opinion polls show except the tories are on 30%!

Posted by: Steve201 2nd May 2024, 10:48 PM

It’s well known to have been true in the 1980s and 90s albeit never proven but like voter fraud why would it be in the interests to prove!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 10:54 PM

What was the polling like for that area before toneet?

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 10:54 PM

It's just not the case at all. Urban legend.

Posted by: Steve201 2nd May 2024, 11:36 PM

See the +\- beside I assume they indicate!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 2nd May 2024, 11:48 PM

I mean the prediction polling

Posted by: Steve201 3rd May 2024, 12:28 AM

Hetton (Sunderland) council election result:

LAB: 46.6% (+1.9)
IND: 29.2% (+9.5)
REF: 10.9% (+10.9)
CON: 5.9% (-13.5)
GRN: 5.0% (+2.1)
LDEM: 2.5% (+0.3)

Labour HOLD.

First council declared obv had to be Sunderland and skewed by those pesky Indepndents. But Reform polling at 11% must be worrying for the tories!

Posted by: Steve201 3rd May 2024, 12:29 AM

Burbage (Leicestershire) council election result:

LDEM: 51.3% (+9.6)
CON: 30.2% (-18.2)
LAB: 13.8% (+4.6)
GRN: 4.7% (+4.7)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

Here’s a seat the reform party doesn’t stand in, interesting the difference in Tory vote but the LDs gain this!

Posted by: Steve201 3rd May 2024, 12:31 AM

Byker (Newcastle Upon Tyne) council election result:

GRN: 56.8% (+42.2)
LAB: 35.6% (-22.3)
CON: 5.1% (-17.1)
LDEM: 2.5% (-2.8)

Green GAIN from Labour



Just WOW!

Posted by: Smint 3rd May 2024, 02:05 AM

Labour symbolically win Hartlepool from NOC. Their loss of the parliamentary sest to the Conservatives when they were extremely popular under Johnson a couple years back was the darkest hours for Labour before their recovery.

Great swings too for Labour in North East Lincolnshire

Posted by: Doctor Blind 3rd May 2024, 04:04 AM

Incorrect data, Tories actually polled just 17.5%.. not even 1% ahead of Reform. Not that you can draw any sig conclusions from a by-election but the swing is bigger than predicted by the MRP poll.

Posted by: Smint 3rd May 2024, 07:50 AM

That's a terrible vote for Tories in Blackpool South and great for Labour. The council elections aren't that great for Labour, although some good wins like Thurrock and Rushmoor. Lots of Green and Independent wins, showing lack of enthusiasm for Starmer.

But so far does indicate in a GE that they will win. Loads more results to go though.

Posted by: Steve201 3rd May 2024, 11:50 AM

Yeh the data i posted was a forecast so as you say its much worse for the tories especially with the Reform votes in Northern seats. Although in Blackpool South the turnout was only 32.5%.

Im desperate for the GE all nighter now, could be a great watch!

Posted by: Scene 3rd May 2024, 12:11 PM

Same!! It can't come soon enough!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 3rd May 2024, 01:16 PM

Fine. Obviously no enthusiasm for wstablishmwnt plant Starmer, but we can tell a scab when we see one. Corbyn would have done better.

Posted by: Smint 3rd May 2024, 01:47 PM

Jamie Driscoll did lose in the end and by a significant margin too. London Mayoral loads of rumours going around that Hall has upset Khan. At first I thought it was some Trumpian cast aspersion on the votes nonsense by the right wing but even Khan's team is saying it's going to be closed. Think it's a bit much waiting till Saturday to count the vote, that allows these rumours to take part - FWIW I think Khan has won comfortably but being cautious/downplaying expectations. Definitely would be a tale of Inner vs Outer London too.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 3rd May 2024, 01:48 PM

Oh

Posted by: Liam sota 3rd May 2024, 02:36 PM

I imagine it will be close because the anti-Khan vote was a lot stronger in feeling than the anti Susan hall(nobody knows her) or pro-Khan vote. Plus the last one polls were way off and the Tory guy came a lot closer than polled. In London especially I imagine there is a quiet Tory type of vote. It would be a real miracle if he lost though.

To something said earlier “ Khan’s lead in the mayoral race is not built on high levels of satisfaction with his previous performance in the role. Our February 2024 poll showed that only 27% of Londoners say they are “very” or “somewhat” satisfied with the way he has performed since becoming Mayor of London. Meanwhile, 45% claim they are “somewhat” or “very” dissatisfied. Khan’s rather lacklustre approval ratings make his lead appear rather more shallow.”

Labour is the default in London and London has been steadily becoming stronger for Labour in the last 10 years. So I don't think somebody hardly anyone wants should just get a free lifetime pass as London mayor because he's Labour. Now he has no chance to be PM I'm pretty sure Sadiq would be content to stay London mayor for as long as he can. A decade or so should be the maximum unless you're extremely popular which he isn't.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 3rd May 2024, 02:44 PM

Also, if some Muslim voters, or any left wing people angry at the Middle East situation, stayed home and decided not to vote Labour, itwill have damaged his numbers.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 3rd May 2024, 04:58 PM

In other news, all the councillors in the ward of Middleton Park in Leeds are now from the continuity SDP party after they won another seat there.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 3rd May 2024, 05:26 PM

Starmer is an establishment scab!! No changw, just more Tory policies. Shame Corbyn didn't wait to run till after 2019. He'd p4obably be on 60%, with the disastrous government, all its crises, and whilst offering REQL, leftwing change and A PROPER DEMOCRATIC CHOICE!!

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 3rd May 2024, 05:27 PM

As is, we don't have a democracy. It's akin to Chinese elites choosing who runs in Hong Kong: all the same and vetted by those in power (here, rhe British establishment, media and state).

Posted by: Liam sota 3rd May 2024, 05:32 PM

Biggest sign so far that Khan might be in trouble https://x.com/marwandata/status/1786433352037290476?s=46

Posted by: Rooney 3rd May 2024, 05:43 PM

Labour have taken York and North Yorkshire in the Mayor election. This is a massive win.

Posted by: Jessie Where 3rd May 2024, 06:21 PM

Susan Hall is an absolute unhinged NUTCASE. Pretty much on the Dorries sort of level.

Posted by: Envoirment 3rd May 2024, 06:38 PM

All figures out now and turnout was 40.5% which is 1.5% down on last time. Generally within the norm for the mayor elections though.

Hopefully he'll still win comfortably, although likely with a slightly lower lead than polls indicated - say about 5-8%.

Posted by: chartjack2 3rd May 2024, 06:40 PM

Nothing continuity about the SDP, really right wing and illiberal.

Posted by: Liam sota 3rd May 2024, 06:44 PM

It's just that all pro-khan areas are down and the outer London more Tory friendly areas are up. So if we were to replicate the last election it would within a razor tight margin if everybody voted the same, and if anything Khan lost supporters rather than gained.

I think it'll be within 5% or less either way but last week it was 99% Khan will win now I'd say 70%

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 3rd May 2024, 07:08 PM

Rishi Sunak's article in the telegraph is one hell of an exercise in denial.

Posted by: Scene 3rd May 2024, 07:28 PM

I guess it’s a difficult thing to admit your government/party messing up the country for the last 14 years

Posted by: Envoirment 3rd May 2024, 07:29 PM

I had a look and compared last time vs this year



The highlights being how strongly labour or conservative they voted in 2021. Inner vs Outer London is tricky to tell as some places are both inner and outer (Camden & Barnet for instance or Enfield & Haringey for instance).

The 3 conservative voting areas have seen increased turnout, particularly Bexley & Bromley. Although most outer London areas have had decreased turnout, but less so than inner London.

There is a slight caveat in my data above though in that the 2021 data is rounded (so increases and decreases might be off by between 0.1-0.4, but it should still given a general idea). I just couldn't be bothered to go through all 14 files and do the math for them.

I'm thinking he'll win by a smaller margin, but who knows.

I'm quite interested to see what the London Assembly will look like as if Susan does end up winnning, the conservatives will likely lose a number of seats, with Labour, Greens & Lib Dems likely gaining seats between them (+ Reform will likely end up with 1 too).

It's possible that there may be a 2/3rd majority between Labour, Greens & Lib Dems (Need 17/25 seats for that, currently Labour has 11, Greens 3 & Lib Dems 2 for 16 total) so they could majorly frustrate Susan's plans/budgets etc.

Posted by: Steve201 3rd May 2024, 09:02 PM

Don’t know much about London but you’d think the progressive vote would win easily but this is the city that voted for Johnson so who knows, must be a lot of middle class suburbs there now!

Sad Jamie Driscoll lost, I really thought he would upset the odds!

Posted by: Smint 3rd May 2024, 09:59 PM

To be fair, although I and many others in London saw through Johnson's narcissism from the get go- he was heavily promoted by an adoring press as an ultra liberal, pro EU, lively character representing the good times - it was during the golden Olympic 2012 period in London, which was an age away. He then took a sharp turn fash and Brexity when he spotted an opening to become PM.

Hall from the get go has been portrayed as a gaffe prone, hard right divisive character without a clue how to run a bath let alone a global city. Plus she's heavily Brexity in a very pro Remain city. Yes, the suburbs will be slightly more in favour of her but there will be lots there who are voting against her too as it's a very cosmopolitan area.

Khan is suffering from the general anti Starmer feeling in London, plus a lot of mendacious attacks purely because he's a Muslim but I do know lots of people who are disliking the current Labour leader and voting for him as Mayor (and Green etc other votes). Plus the polls would have to be wrong on an unprecedented level - they varied from 10 point lead to 22 point lead.

One thing I would say is that I didn't get a single leaflet or see a single placard/flyer anywhere- I live in Waltham Forest which is as Labour as they come but the Mayoral election is a pure popularity contest covering whole of London not voted on by winning the most areas. It would be so so easy to forget it was on. So if anything it could have been due to shit campaigning if he only scrapes through

Posted by: Smint 3rd May 2024, 10:07 PM

And overall think it was a great night for Starmer - he won lots of unglamourous areas in the North and Midlands that would make all the difference in the General Election Places like Nuneaton, Hartlepool, Burnley (ie the Red Wall(. Yes people go 'Oh Greens are beating Labour in Bristol and Norwich" but there are so few parliamentary seats affected so although it may make a few headlines and be of interest to younger voters, it's not significant. There could be more of a problem with certain inner cities with large Muslim population due to the stance on Palestine but maybe Starmer will work on that issue.

God it sounds like I'm a fan - I'm not but so so so want the Tories out.

Posted by: Steve201 3rd May 2024, 10:40 PM

The national poll developed by various broadcaster following the legs face it confusing local elections in terms of the stats you are left to analyse show Labour on 35% a 10 point leads over the tories!

Posted by: Chez Wombat 3rd May 2024, 11:04 PM

Maybe it's because I live in one of the more blue boroughs in London (Bexley and Bromley), but the anti-Khan movement feels very strong here, I think the polls are underestimating just how unpopular ULEZ is with outer London. I did end up voting tactically for Khan just to prevent it. It would be bizarre and not fitting with the narrative losing such a strong Labour area, but I'm nervous about tomorrow, it's giving me 2016 vibes :x

Posted by: Rooney 4th May 2024, 12:00 PM

You can get 50/1 on Hall, I'd say it looks fairly likely Khan wins London. Probably shows the Gaza stance is hurting Labour, but you can flip that round and say if they adopted a different stance it might hurt votes too. Something for the strategists to ponder, but can't see a change unless America makes one. Probably fine in the local elections to take a slightly rogue stance, but the votes will count in the general election. Overall though, think Labour HQ will be very happy with how things have gone.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 4th May 2024, 12:02 PM

Posted by: Smint 4th May 2024, 12:05 PM

First region declaring for London Mayor- Greenwich and Lewisham show a swing of 5% TOWARDS Labour

The outer parts will have to do a lot of heavy lifting to stand a chance to pollute us all on the cheap!

Posted by: ElectroBoy 4th May 2024, 12:47 PM

The 4 areas so far have had 5%+ swing towards Labour

Labour now calling they've won - excellent stuff!

Posted by: Jacob- 4th May 2024, 12:49 PM

https://www.indy100.com/politics/darren-jones-lbc-voter-id

Official party line:
A bit non-committal but there's scope for it to be repealed, we'll have to see what the manifesto says. Let's hope so.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 4th May 2024, 01:00 PM

Posted by: Envoirment 4th May 2024, 01:01 PM

Despite lower turnouts, Khan has ended up increasing Labour's votes, whilst Susan is doing less than the conservatives did previously. He's started getting himself a nice lead which should help buffer any advantage Susan might have in some of the outer areas of London.

Results so far:

Greenwich And Lewisham
Khan: 83,792; Hall: 36,822
Difference: +46,970 (Khan)

Merton And Wandsworth
Khan: 84,725; Hall:50,976
Difference: +33,749 (Khan)

West Central
Khan: 54,481; Hall: 43,405
Difference: +11,076 (Khan)

North East
Khan: 127,455; Hall: 34,099
Difference: +93,356 (Khan)

South West
Khan: 77,011; Hall: 68,856
Difference: +8,155 (Khan)

Enfield And Haringey
Khan: 82,725; Hall: 41,389
Difference: +41,336 (Khan)

Bexley And Bromley
Khan: 48,952; Hall: 111,216
Difference: +62,264 (Hall)

Brent And Harrow
Khan: 58,743; Hall: 66,151
Difference: +7,408 (Hall)

Ealing And Hillingdon
Khan: 73,257; Hall: 75,396
Difference: +2,139 (Hall)

~162,000 lead for Khan so far.

Edit: South West results now out. Khan takes it from conservatives!! Pretty much no way he loses now. ULEZ not as big as a factor as it was made out to be it seems.
Edit 2: Enfield & Haringey added. Pretty much cements win for Khan now. Very unlikely Hall will overcome such a large lead.
Edit 3: Bexley And Bromley added. There was no swing to either Labour or Conservative with the %s being exactly the same as last time. Susan needed a big swing here to be in contention and that hasn't materialised.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 4th May 2024, 01:20 PM

BBC now calling Khan the winner too

Posted by: Liam sota 4th May 2024, 01:24 PM

From the results so far looks like 10% win for Khan. I dont think he's popular but his opponent wasn't good and the tories have never been so unpopular in my lifetime so I guess not a surprise

Posted by: Iz 🌟 4th May 2024, 01:27 PM

Yeah there was no way with Hall. The noise they've made about it is just noise and she's a terrible Conservative candidate against a good Labour candidate in an inner city. Wild baseless rumours from yesterday when not a single vote had been counted.

Gaza does seem to be hurting Labour in some key areas, and it's good that media has sourced quotes from key Labour figures like Streeting and Cooper saying that they need to win back voters as for once they might try winning back in the opposite direction, but also areas where it did affect the council like Oldham had their own issues for a long time. Very frustrating when any pro-Palestine voices say Labour's stance on I/P is still affecting their vote though as they've changed their stance already, months ago.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 4th May 2024, 02:16 PM

Bur Keir aleeady called for a ceasefire right? Not sure what else an opposition party in a European country, far removed from the Middle East and with little influence, with only Gibraltar and Cyprus close by, can do? He's not even in power. All he can do is call for a ceasefire and aak Israel to show restraint and negotiate. The only voice Israel will listen to is America's, and it's been ignoring Biden as is.

So what was with those full on articles in newspapers, saying Khan waa gonna lose?! It's the sort of tripe Kusswnbeeg would put out there

Posted by: Chez Wombat 4th May 2024, 02:25 PM

Oh phew, I do apologise on behalf of Bexley and Bromley x Clearly the only constituency that can be bothered to protest vote and not even enough!

Khan isn't perfect and my vote was entirely tactical, but it's refreshing to see an honest, moral political leader. I imagine ULEZ was the sole reason Hall got that close, utter nutcase, if that was the best her party I could do, they weren't even trying!

Posted by: Doctor Blind 4th May 2024, 03:02 PM

Apparently Labour have won the West Mids by 'a couple of thousand'.

Recount being asked for by the Tories...

Posted by: Hadji 4th May 2024, 04:57 PM

I’m surprised Sadiq won again despite ULEZ and knife crime being rife in London. One of the candidates who was running for independent called him out over this and was deliberately disrupting Sadiq during his speech

Posted by: Doctor Blind 4th May 2024, 07:06 PM

Labour has won in West Mids mayor race defeating Andy Street. Big result!

Posted by: WhoOdyssey 4th May 2024, 07:45 PM

I believe that was the Britain First candidate...

Posted by: Hadji 4th May 2024, 07:49 PM

That happened today but there was an incident about 3 weeks ago where the Independent candidate called him out and was shouting the names of kids who fell victim to knife crime

Posted by: Chez Wombat 4th May 2024, 08:10 PM

And actually https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/26/fact-check-has-sadiq-khan-really-overseen-a-surge-in-london and didn't just follow reactionary headlines, Stabbings in London, while still above the national average, has actually been on a downward trend since Sadiq Khan took over as Mayor and is higher in other parts of the country.

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th May 2024, 08:33 PM

Knife crime in London is more or less in line with the national average.

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th May 2024, 08:36 PM

Given a choice between Ben Houchen and Andy Street, I would have preferred Street to have bee the one who manged to hold on. He seems to be genuinely motivated by what is best for his region. The Labour winner's speech and Street's concession speech both strengthen that belief. Houchen's main aim seems to be to line the pockets of his mates with public money.

Posted by: Jessie Where 5th May 2024, 04:22 AM

The ULEZ thing is a drop in the ocean, and I think most sensible people with their head screwed on know that the knife crime discourse is something certain corners of the media and online right-wing activists try and perpetuate despite the problem not actually lying with him and being entirely down to central government.

Posted by: DoBelieveTheHype 5th May 2024, 07:25 AM

They've decided to wheel out Suella Braverman as face of the Conservative Party following the general election. You don't even have to listen to what she says to realise that the government have taken the wrong message from these local elections. They're going to get rightly hammered when we do eventually get a general election.

Posted by: Rooney 5th May 2024, 11:39 AM

Good for Labour. Pretty sure I've read that Reform are taking voters mainly away from the Tories and not Labour. IIRC, UKIP took away both.

Only worrying thing to take away from all this, is we're likely about to see the Tories go full Trumpism.

Posted by: Smint 5th May 2024, 01:11 PM

But she's very anti Sunak at the moment - when the electorate goes left wing for the recent elections, why do the BBC give prominent airtime to someone who is extremely far right and by every measure unpopular? They should give airtime to Green/Lib Dems/anti war parties instead. I do hope that when Labour get in they sack Kuenssberg and have less bigots on.

Posted by: Envoirment 5th May 2024, 02:08 PM

That is one thing I really dislike about BBC political coverage. They tend to be quite biased in their reporting. The fact Suella is given prominent airtime telling Sunak to go further to the right, despite the local elections showing the opposite....

I really hope that one day we get a proportional representation system, so that parties like the greens can be properly represented. I also think once a system is introduced, people will be more likely to vote for other parties outside of Labour & Conservatives.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 5th May 2024, 05:08 PM

They do it on purpose to mark the left as an aberration. Right wing is the status quo for bbc

Posted by: Suedehead2 5th May 2024, 08:23 PM

Very little attention has been paid to the fact that the Lib Dems, on a significantly lower share of the vote, won slightly more seats than the Tories. The BBC described their 100 gains as "modest" while making Labour's 10 gains sound like a massive triumph.

Posted by: Steve201 8th May 2024, 07:27 AM

Imagine having ULEZ a policy to stop car fumes ruining people’s health, terrible!