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 By-elections 2015 - 2020 |
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 8th December 2016, 12:16 PM
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#161
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 DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 
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QUOTE(PeaceMob @ Dec 7 2016, 01:48 PM)  As long as Theresa May ends freedom of movement and the UK has complete control over our borders, the European Court of Justice can no longer overrule the UK's laws and decisions, and we no longer pay towards the EU budget then I think the British people will be more than happy with the Prime Minster and the government. If she fails on any of this, Brexit voters won't see her as a traitor because she did vote to stay in the EU but she will be absolutely hated, far more than Thatcher could ever dream of, and it will throw the 2020 election wide open. Because there is no way that she's going to be able to do all of the things you say without shattering several of our most important economic sectors by leaving them open to massive tariffs from the EU - a deal which would see her completely hated and loathed for shattering our economy. So the only way around that is paying into the EU budget. Which is a solution. But one which the government has done nothing to prime people for. So it's going to go down very, very badly. |
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8th December 2016, 01:04 PM
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#162
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 Buzzjack's Finest Alcoholic.
Joined: 19 November 2011
Posts: 10,367 User: 15,367
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With the constituency apparently getting more annoyed that Brexit isn't happening quicker, is there any chance that the Conservatives and UKIP will split the Pro-Brexit vote enough for a shock Pro-EU Lib Dem challenge?
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8th December 2016, 06:51 PM
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#163
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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QUOTE(Hollyver @ Dec 8 2016, 01:04 PM) With the constituency apparently getting more annoyed that Brexit isn't happening quicker, is there any chance that the Conservatives and UKIP will split the Pro-Brexit vote enough for a shock Pro-EU Lib Dem challenge? Little prospect of a shock challenge unfortunately, a lot of the Conservative flyers almost looked like UKIP flyers so I expect UKIP may actually come third behind the Lib Dems... will be interesting to see what happens. Labour look likely to come fourth...! |
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8th December 2016, 09:56 PM
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#164
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Hollyver @ Dec 8 2016, 01:04 PM) With the constituency apparently getting more annoyed that Brexit isn't happening quicker, is there any chance that the Conservatives and UKIP will split the Pro-Brexit vote enough for a shock Pro-EU Lib Dem challenge? It's possible, but tremendously unlikely I'd imagine. A fair chunk of the Remain vote in the constituency would've been from Conservative voters, who I think are more aligned to the idea that a decision has been made and Theresa May should be allowed to get on with it. I used to work in Lincoln, which is a next door constituency, and the typical Conservative Remain voter in Sleaford and North Hykeham will be very, very different in their cultural outlook to a typical Conservative Remain voter in Richmond Park. They could possibly move to the sort of fervently anti-Brexit position where they will happily vote against the Conservatives, but it'll take a while of some pretty sustained evidence that it's an economic disaster that won't work. |
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9th December 2016, 07:42 AM
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#165
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Buzzjack's Finest Alcoholic.
Joined: 19 November 2011
Posts: 10,367 User: 15,367
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Results (Major Parties)
17570 | 53.5% | Conservative (-2.7%) 04426 | 13.5% | UKIP (-2.2%) 03606 | 11.0% | Lib Dems (+5.3%) 03363 | 10.2% | Labour (-7.1%) |
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9th December 2016, 07:45 AM
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#166
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Buzzjack's Finest Alcoholic.
Joined: 19 November 2011
Posts: 10,367 User: 15,367
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Considering all the time, effort and money UKIP ploughed into campaigning for this seat I'd say it's a loss for them!
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9th December 2016, 07:49 AM
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#167
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Cur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,130 User: 4,718
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Conservatives will win every single East Midlands seat in 2020 except the 6 that make up Leicester and Nottingham, calling it now.
This post has been edited by Harve: 9th December 2016, 07:49 AM |
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9th December 2016, 11:57 AM
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#168
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 9 2016, 07:49 AM) Conservatives will win every single East Midlands seat in 2020 except the 6 that make up Leicester and Nottingham, calling it now. Christ, if they won BOLSOVER... I'm cautiously optimistic that Labour would hold on to Derby South, Bassetlaw and Ashfield too, though Derby South could go. Chesterfield would also be a really, really big ask for the Tories to get. |
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9th December 2016, 12:07 PM
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#169
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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A good win for the Conservatives, a reassuring uplift for the Lib Dems, an okay result for UKIP, and disastrous for Labour. Interestingly, the Lincolnshire Independent candidate won back her deposit for the 3rd election in a row with an impressive 9% of the vote, which is pretty good going for a minor local party.
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10th December 2016, 04:54 AM
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#170
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Cur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,130 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Dec 9 2016, 11:57 AM) Christ, if they won BOLSOVER... It depends if Dennis Skinner retires!  I think it's very possible if UKIP collapse and all their votes go to the Tories and not Labour due to Corbyn shenanigans, even if many 2015 UKIP voters are ex-Labour. |
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21st December 2016, 02:08 PM
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#171
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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We're going to have a by-election in the New Year, as Labour MP Jamie Reed is standing down to join the nuclear industry. I'm sure Jeremy Corbyn will be happy about that.
His majority was about 2,500 votes in the last general election, and his constituency, Copeland, was a very strong "leave" voice in the EU referendum (62% voted for Brexit there), so there's a real danger of Labour losing their seat there. Who to though is anyone's guess. Definitely not the Lib Dems anyway. |
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21st December 2016, 02:57 PM
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#172
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
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If Corbyn can't win a Labour seat, against a Tory government, and having been lukewarm towards the EU at best, and clammering for an instant Brexit next day, and assured his support for any Tory Brexit (more or less, give or take bland wishful thinking for a soft Brexit), not been bothered about Parliament being involved (it got him off the hook if he could blame it all on Tories when it goes tits up), then he's finished as Leader Of The Opposition. There won't be another coup, but he'll be a dead political duck, just quacking till even his blindest followers realise he's a going to take them all down with him.
Better get stuck in then...... |
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21st December 2016, 03:01 PM
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#173
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 21 2016, 02:08 PM) We're going to have a by-election in the New Year, as Labour MP Jamie Reed is standing down to join the nuclear industry. I'm sure Jeremy Corbyn will be happy about that. His majority was about 2,500 votes in the last general election, and his constituency, Copeland, was a very strong "leave" voice in the EU referendum (62% voted for Brexit there), so there's a real danger of Labour losing their seat there. Who to though is anyone's guess. Definitely not the Lib Dems anyway. Very unlikely the Lib Dems, but not *completely* impossible. In the exceptionally unlikely event of a four-way race, the winning post would probably only be around 30%. Not an impossible figure to get to from ~17,000 Remain votes in the constituency. Just deeply unlikely the Lib Dems will be able to unify all that from a very low starting base. Having Tim Farron's local machine next door can't hurt though. |
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21st December 2016, 06:36 PM
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#174
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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I can't see Farron being the kind to warrant that kind of rabid support though. LibDems need a new leader but they've got no one to chose from.
If ukip get this seat we're f***ed as a country |
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21st December 2016, 08:20 PM
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#175
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Hey, he's increased the Lib Dem's number of MPs by 12.5% in less than 18 months, that's not too bad going.
As for Ukip, I'm not sure if they've got much of an infrastructure in Cumbria to mobilise a by-election campaign, so Labour's biggest opposition in the by-election is most likely going to be the Conservatives. |
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21st December 2016, 08:52 PM
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#176
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Silas @ Dec 21 2016, 06:36 PM) I can't see Farron being the kind to warrant that kind of rabid support though. LibDems need a new leader but they've got no one to chose from. If ukip get this seat we're f***ed as a country People in Richmond Park weren't voting Lib Dem for Tim Farron. Unless by that you were referring to him having a local machine. In that respect - rebuilding the party through their traditional by-election wins - he's actually a pretty good leader for the Lib Dems to have. He turned a safe Tory seat into a safe Lib Dem seat (he was one of the few successes of the Lib Dems' 2005 decapitation strategy, which aimed to take out Tory Shadow Cabinet members) to the extent that he's pretty much the only Lib Dem with a majority to write home about. If he can get that campaign infrastructure camped out in Copeland for the next three months they could make a real dent in the Remain vote there. After all, as it stands there isn't *really* a good reason to vote Ukip, and there won't be unless Theresa May looks like she's on the verge of backsliding on Brexit or abandoning ending free movement as a red line. Conversely, given Brexit dominates at the moment, if stopping Brexit or making it as soft as possible is your number one issue, the Lib Dems are a far more obvious choice in that respect than Labour are. Labour will be hoping voters aren't deciding on the basis of the EU for this by-election, because changing the subject is the only way they can really make themselves the answer as things stand. Annoyingly for Labour, nuclear (obviously huge in Copeland because of Sellafield) isn't a way they can do that - the Lib Dems reversed their opposition to nuclear power in 2013. And Trident...is probably something the Labour leadership would prefer to avoid discussing. |
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21st December 2016, 09:37 PM
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#177
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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Labour will win Cumbria. The North and Scotland wsnt no part in thi Tory government.
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22nd December 2016, 12:54 AM
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#178
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Two of Cumbria's six seats are *already* Conservative. They're 800 votes off taking Barrow and 2,500 off taking Copeland. And that was for a Prime Minister much less popular than Theresa May is, as things stand. Labour could keep Copeland, but there's no chance in hell a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party will hold Barrow.
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22nd December 2016, 02:26 AM
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#179
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Cur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,130 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 21 2016, 09:37 PM) Labour will win Cumbria. The North and Scotland wsnt no part in thi Tory government. Parts of Scotland have a sleeping centre-right that will usurp the SNP in rural, unionist areas. The Tories' rise in May was only the beginning, I just don't know how much further it will go. |
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22nd December 2016, 02:03 PM
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#180
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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I can imagine the main opposition to a centre left dominant SNP in Scotland will be a unionist tory party, no doubt about it!
In terms of Jamie Reed, I haven't seen the resignation of a backbencher get so much coverage in the uk press before.... |
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