EU Referendum Discussion, Thursday 23rd June |
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18th January 2017, 03:16 PM
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#281
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,486 User: 21,753 |
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18th January 2017, 04:10 PM
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#282
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596 |
Not saying this is relevant to you, but the events that have transpired since the referendum have been a rather good rebuke of Lexit as a valid political idea.
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18th January 2017, 07:55 PM
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#283
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,678 User: 3,272 |
The Leave brigade's optimism about trade deals makes no sense. The countries who are supposedly keen to do trade deals are generally counties who will be negotiating from a position of strength. It's not as if we can present the USA with a proposed deal and expect them to say "We won't bother reading it. Where do we sign?". Any deal proposed by Trump is bound to be a very one-sided one.
The EU and US have been trying to negotiate a deal for years. One reason it has taken so long (with no sign of an agreement any time soon) is that the EU can negotiate from a position strength. The UK will have no such luxury. Ultimately, the US can (if they so choose) get to the point where they say "This is our final offer. Take it or leave it". The same applies to any deal with the EU. They, as I said earlier, will have the upper hand and will act in the interests of its members. Each member state will consider their own interests with little or no regard for the UK's interests. As all 27 member states (and the European Parliament) will need to agree any deal, it's not going to be as simple as many people seem to think. Of course, many of them are well aware of this but will continue to behave as if a deal should be simple so that they can blame the EU when it isn't. |
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18th January 2017, 08:09 PM
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#284
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561 |
Not saying this is relevant to you, but the events that have transpired since the referendum have been a rather good rebuke of Lexit as a valid political idea. Are you referring to Paul Mason? I must admit I did sympathise with the idea initially - there are certain things like state aid (ref- the steel industry) and the treatment of Greece as well as the complete and utter shambles that is the (ongoing) refugee crisis that did make me want to vote to leave the EU, though I reluctantly voted to remain because IMO the benefits still outweigh these rather annoying cons and perhaps some serious reform could be initiated from within, plus of course, and this is a much bigger factor in my decision ultimately... Britain outside the EU with the Conservatives in power will be a VERY bad thing indeed. |
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18th January 2017, 08:12 PM
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#285
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,856 User: 17,376 |
One thing that bugs me about Theresa's headline in her speech, she says no deal is better than a bad deal. But under Article 50, both the UK and EU HAVE to conclude an agreement for both its withdrawal and future relationship. It's also really not in the interests of either party to end up needing to use paragraph 3. It will cause so much instability for both the UK and EU. Please can we just get a quick and amicable deal done. Yes the EU doesn't want to make it easy for us to leave, since it will create a precedent, but making it difficult for us will just strengthen the populist movement across Europe. As someone who voted Leave, it's a very wrong move to reject the EEA. The strength of the Remain vote should also have been taken into account. Adding both the Leave voters who support the EEA but not the EU and Remain voters surely would give an easy majority for staying in the single market. If anything, I'd now like a second referendum on whether we stay in the EEA because I'm quite convinced Remain would win. They're over estimating the power of the leave vote / UKIP, imo. May knows exactly what she's doing, she's always been essentially not a fan of the EU and avoided saying anything of consequence in the referendum so she could swing whichever way the wind went afterwards. A new referendum would absolutely give a different result now people have seen what it involves without all of the lies that were told in the campaign (as regards what politicians said they would do vs what they actually have done) which is why it's never gonna happen in a million years. Same reason there won't be Gen Election. Don't need one. They have power, they won't give it up because that might mean we don't leave the EU. May has already had meetings with Rupert Murdoch, and given interviews (exclusive) on Sky, and hasn't given key vital speeches in Parliament where MP's might ask some rather awkward questions she can't answer. She tried to get the Bill through by ignoring UK law, she isn't giving Parliament a final say on the EU agreement (It's consultative only, and no doubt too late to to come up with Plan B some time in 2019) because again she won't get what she wants. She runs a government who weren't elected, with policies that weren't voted for. In short, the most undemocratic government of the last 70 years in the UK, under the sway of foreign billionaires (why the f*** is she even meeting media billionaire foreigners while she has so much vital to sort out with the EU, if it wasn't because she either is working with them, or frightened of them). Still at least she's not the unstable, dumbass racist mess that Trump is, looking on the bright side. A cold, calculating two-faced speechifying-drivel robot is at least better than that. |
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18th January 2017, 09:08 PM
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#286
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 11 April 2006
Posts: 4,259 User: 457 |
The Leave brigade's optimism about trade deals makes no sense. The countries who are supposedly keen to do trade deals are generally counties who will be negotiating from a position of strength. It's not as if we can present the USA with a proposed deal and expect them to say "We won't bother reading it. Where do we sign?". Any deal proposed by Trump is bound to be a very one-sided one. The EU and US have been trying to negotiate a deal for years. One reason it has taken so long (with no sign of an agreement any time soon) is that the EU can negotiate from a position strength. The UK will have no such luxury. Ultimately, the US can (if they so choose) get to the point where they say "This is our final offer. Take it or leave it". This was the main reason I voted to Remain -- because, as shite as the EU is, and as infuriating and offensive as I found the Remain campaign, having all the European countries on the same page in a big club atleast offered the chance of SOMEDAY forcing the biggest countries and big companies who run the global economy and global trade arrangements to change their ways. I still think a campaign along those lines, with a message along the lines of "let's stick with the biggest gang in the playground so that we can get our way over China, Putin and Trump" would've had a much better chance of success, present those other countries who we'd be vulnerable to after Brexit as a greater evil than the EU. Instead, the genius Remain strategists somehow thought it would be a great idea to run a campaign with a message of how great the economy was during the middle of a living-standards Depression, and how bad it would be if some selfish rich big businessmen and bankers decided they didn't want to grace our shores with their presence anymore, topped off with regular doses of a US President thinking he's entitled to give instructions to us on how we should vote -- all of which combined to present a Leave vote as the only way to stick up for national pride and for the "little guy". This post has been edited by Danny: 18th January 2017, 09:09 PM |
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19th January 2017, 09:03 AM
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#287
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596 |
This is what happens when Lynton Crosby runs a campaign with most of the press not on his side, in essence.
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19th January 2017, 12:03 PM
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#288
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 |
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19th January 2017, 12:09 PM
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#289
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596 |
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19th January 2017, 12:25 PM
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#290
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,856 User: 17,376 |
topped off with regular doses of a US President thinking he's entitled to give instructions to us on how we should vote err poor obama, one sentence about trade talk realities, at the behest of cameron, and he gets slagged off by the press and everyone else. as opposed to farage, who actually went and campaigned for Trump, and Trump who keeps sticking his nose in the referendum beforehand, Scottish affairs, political trade appointees in the UK, and European affairs generally. Trumps; front of the Q, by the way, will be front of a great deal for the USA around about 2022, assuming he's still in office then...or unless he has plans on making the UK the next state of the USA... |
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19th January 2017, 12:37 PM
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#291
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 |
I was under the impression that there was a lot of pressure from Cameron's group to run the campaign along his usual lines. Oh definitely, but Lynton stayed out and apparently the campaign was weakened a lot from being run as almost a parody of what a Crosby campaign is supposed to be. In the words of Mandelson, "as one of the so-called proponents of focused messaging, even I never ran it to the stage where it meant literally talking about one thing over and over and saying absolutely nothing else". And of course as you say, it's impossible to run an 'economy is safer this way' campaign without the media onside. |
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19th January 2017, 12:44 PM
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#292
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596 |
Ultimately I suppose it came down to how the two sides managed the contrasting ideologies and messages of their constituent parts. Leave did a better job of pitching to voters who wanted stricter immigration / more "sovereignty" / less regulation without putting off those who were turned off by one or more of them, than Remain did trying to balance economic security / protection of progressive reforms / liberal Europhilia (the last one is a bit clunky but I couldn't really think of another way to put it).
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19th January 2017, 01:45 PM
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#293
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 11 April 2006
Posts: 4,259 User: 457 |
err poor obama, one sentence about trade talk realities, at the behest of cameron, and he gets slagged off by the press and everyone else. Whether it was "reality" or not, it was still horrible politics. The whole tone of what he said sounded arrogant and presumptuous, reminding people of the humiliation when Britain was seen as "America's poodle" in the Blair years (something which was never just confined to lefties). Hence why, from that day on, Leave being the "patriotic" choice became MUCH more widespread belief than it had previously, to prove to ourselves that we don't just do what we're told by other countries. |
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19th January 2017, 01:50 PM
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#294
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 11 April 2006
Posts: 4,259 User: 457 |
Oh definitely, but Lynton stayed out and apparently the campaign was weakened a lot from being run as almost a parody of what a Crosby campaign is supposed to be. In the words of Mandelson, "as one of the so-called proponents of focused messaging, even I never ran it to the stage where it meant literally talking about one thing over and over and saying absolutely nothing else". And of course as you say, it's impossible to run an 'economy is safer this way' campaign without the media onside. The Tories completely misunderstood why they won the 2015 election. It wasn't because of "economic security" at all -- it was because, just like most of the successful campaigns of recent years, they pointed to some villains (in the Tories' case, the villains were immigrants, welfare claimants, and most importantly, the "uppity Scots") and implicitly made the message "if we take something from those villains, there'll be more for People Like You". A happy-clappy "centrist" message of "we can all be winners" as peddled by Clinton and Miliband just can't compete (whereas a Bernie Sanders-style campaign of identifying different villains - namely greedy rich people, banks and big multinational companies - would atleast have a chance of beating the populist right at their own game). |
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19th January 2017, 07:28 PM
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#295
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,856 User: 17,376 |
Whether it was "reality" or not, it was still horrible politics. The whole tone of what he said sounded arrogant and presumptuous, reminding people of the humiliation when Britain was seen as "America's poodle" in the Blair years (something which was never just confined to lefties). Hence why, from that day on, Leave being the "patriotic" choice became MUCH more widespread belief than it had previously, to prove to ourselves that we don't just do what we're told by other countries. and you're right, Leavers don't want to hear facts and, yes, reality (trade deals take years, those that don't are badly-written for one side - "whatever you want Mr Trump, yessirreeee that'll do for us no prob") from one of the smartest, well-meaning and most reasonable world politicians of my lifetime, they want a spot of brainless flag-waving pumped up by a load of lying rich right-wingers. Soon find out how much we are not going to be told what to do by other countries when we want their trade, raw materials and goods and they want our...errr....weapons of mass destruction? |
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21st January 2017, 11:52 AM
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#296
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,092 User: 3,474 |
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/j...EMCNEWEML6619I2
Turns out those assurances that Theresa May gave Nissan might not be up to much scratch after all. CEO of Renault-Nissan admitted this week that post-Brexit a 'competitiveness review' would be done on Sunderland. It's worth keeping in mind that while Nissan is still technically an independent entity: it shares a CEO with Renault, Renault own over 40% of the shares in Nissan with voting rights (Nissan's 30% Renault stake has no voting rights) and most importantly the largest shareholder in Renault that has voting rights is the French Government at just under 20%. A French government that regardless of who is in power backs it's motor industry to the nth degree, in return for assurances on factories in France. During 2008 crisis when both PSA and Renault SA got hit by major sales collapses, neither shut a single factory in France and got some nice loans from the French state in return... |
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21st January 2017, 02:48 PM
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#297
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,856 User: 17,376 |
So even with a sweetener (undisclosed, the usual government/local gov Get Out OF Jail Free card "financial confidentiality" - with OUR tax payer money!) Nissan may leave anyway if Brexit goes tits up and they can't sell cars in Europe without hefty tax hikes.
Pound at it's lowest in decades, and we haven't yet left, or negotiated a thing, and the only reason the conomy hasnt plummeted too so far is due to the BoE support measures (the UK has been on BofE life support for nearly a decade now). Yet things look warm and glowing to idiots believing Tory press headlines.... Shock on the way down the line... |
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23rd January 2017, 12:43 AM
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#298
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,561 User: 10,030 |
So even with a sweetener (undisclosed, the usual government/local gov Get Out OF Jail Free card "financial confidentiality" - with OUR tax payer money!) Nissan may leave anyway if Brexit goes tits up and they can't sell cars in Europe without hefty tax hikes. Pound at it's lowest in decades, and we haven't yet left, or negotiated a thing, and the only reason the conomy hasnt plummeted too so far is due to the BoE support measures (the UK has been on BofE life support for nearly a decade now). Yet things look warm and glowing to idiots believing Tory press headlines.... Shock on the way down the line... I suppose the good thing is that the economic turmoil hasn't been as bad as it could've been so far and doesn't look to be a huge disaster for the future. A lot of businesses will likely reshuffle themselves to either move to a country in the EU or move part of their activities there (like banks rellocating some employees/jobs to the EU). Consumer spending has been keeping the economy afloat a good degree as well, and with inflation rising we'll see how long that'll last - although wage growth was outpacing inflation at the end of last year, it may fall behind it this year. The government are set to spend more on infrastructure than previously (when Cameron was PM) and are pumping more money into R&D. Both of those things could help the economy, although the benefits of the big infrastucture projects - HS2, Hinkley Point & Heathrow's third runway, won't be seen for another decade or so (if they do make a positive impact). Which isn't a bad thing as investing in the future, as they seem to being doing, can be very beneficial. In the short term Brexit is going to cause a lot of uncertainty and slow growth, but long term it may not cause too much damage if a decent deal can be made and the government spend accordingly. Although I'm hoping they will avoid making the UK a tax haven and focus on maintaining/increasing living standards for most people instead of lining the pockets of a few. A conservative government doesn't give me too much hope about that last bit though. P.S: The pound may go either way - the more clarity on brexit and negotiations the less likely the pound will suffer and it may just stagnate at around its current value for the next year or two. If a good deal is reached, it'll likely rise a bit. If a bad deal is reached or we just leave without a deal, I'd expect the pound to drop significantly. In saying that Trump's in office now and a lot of what he does and its effects on the dollar (which is overvalued and there may be efforts to devalue somewhat) will also determine the pound's value. As well as interest rate rises in the US and possibly in the UK. This post has been edited by Envoirment: 23rd January 2017, 12:45 AM |
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26th January 2017, 08:13 PM
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#299
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,163 User: 5,138 |
I see Jezza has put a three line whip on the Article 50 vote - such a strange thing to do IMO!
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26th January 2017, 08:39 PM
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#300
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 |
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