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 By-elections 2015 - 2020 |
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 21st January 2017, 09:30 PM
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#221
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,093 User: 3,474 
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Stoke isn't far from me. Tempted to go throw things at Paul Nutjob tbh
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21st January 2017, 10:40 PM
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#222
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 21 2017, 09:22 PM)  I'd make Labour slight favourites to win Stoke-on-Trent Central, but I could genuinely realistically see any of Labour/Ukip/Conservatives/Lib Dems taking it. Which is the first time I think that's ever been the case. I don't think Ukip will win though. What reason to vote Ukip is there over the Conservatives at the moment? Theresa May is showing no signs whatsoever of needing her feet held to the fire as far as hardcore Leave voters would be concerned. Indeed. Why vote for a UKIP MP to sit on the opposition benches when you can vote for a UKIP MP who can join the UKIP Prime Minister on the government benches? |
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22nd January 2017, 03:00 PM
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#223
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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I'm not aware of the demographics on the constituency although I assume it's old labour so maybe some would never vote for the Tories so would find it easier to transfer from Labour to UKIP?
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22nd January 2017, 03:02 PM
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#224
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jan 22 2017, 03:00 PM) I'm not aware of the demographics on the constituency although I assume it's old labour so maybe some would never vote for the Tories so would find it easier to transfer from Labour to UKIP? The winning post has been 38% for the last two elections. If it craters even more the winner could conceivably do it with just a third of the vote. Also I wouldn't be quite so sure. There hasn't been a more Old Labour-friendly Tory leader than Theresa May in quite some time. |
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22nd January 2017, 03:08 PM
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#225
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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I understand that but is there not some old labour voters who would never vote Tory?
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22nd January 2017, 03:48 PM
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#226
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,093 User: 3,474
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Theresa May is a lot more 'old labour' than Corbyn ever could dream of being. Her Hard Brexit rhetoric will go down well in a 70% leave constituency.
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22nd January 2017, 03:51 PM
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#227
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jan 22 2017, 03:08 PM) I understand that but is there not some old labour voters who would never vote Tory? Oh of course there'll always be. But 'old Labour' often gets conflated with 'Bennite Labour'. A lot of people forget that most of the time, old Labour was closer the Labour "old right" position now of being eye-wateringly hardline on things like crime and immigration but broadly redistributive on the economy. That isn't Theresa May's position by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if an old Labour voter who voted Leave and has only paid passing notice to the news would be perhaps more inclined to vote Tory when the comparison is her vs Corbyn, at least compared with when it was Cameron vs Corbyn. For a quick illustration of that you only need to go back to Danny's cautious positivity on Theresa May when she first got in and general non-chalance/luke-warm approval of her Brexit position. |
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22nd January 2017, 04:45 PM
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#228
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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Can't see the Lib Dems coming through the middle in either Copeland or Stoke to be honest. Would expect a 1,000-ish majority for the Tories in Copeland and Labour in Stoke. If either party can win both it'll be an interesting night.
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22nd January 2017, 05:01 PM
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#229
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jan 22 2017, 04:45 PM) Can't see the Lib Dems coming through the middle in either Copeland or Stoke to be honest. I don't think it's likely, but the pool of Remain votes in every by-election means it can't really be ruled out so long as it's a seat where Labour's vote likely predominantly voted Leave (and ergo is having to compete for that vote with Ukip and the Tories). Especially somewhere where the winning post can conceivably be as low as a third of the vote, which means the Lib Dems would notionally only need to unite about, say, 7,000 votes out of the ~20,000 that voted Remain in the Stoke seat (assuming a potentially optimistic turnout of about 21k for the by-election, given they only manage about 30k for general elections). |
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23rd January 2017, 09:41 AM
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#230
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Copeland projected as an easy win for the Conservatives by Labour canvass returns, according to the Telegraph.
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23rd January 2017, 12:21 PM
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#231
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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Chances that it's been deliberately leaked to manage expectations and it's actually going to be much closer?
Somehow after the fiasco the leadership made of the selection, I'm not holding my breath. |
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23rd January 2017, 12:32 PM
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#232
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jan 23 2017, 12:21 PM) Chances that it's been deliberately leaked to manage expectations and it's actually going to be much closer? Somehow after the fiasco the leadership made of the selection, I'm not holding my breath. I imagine the only advantageous expectation management here will be "we're going to lose anyway so let's get it priced in way beforehand", given holding it would've been seen as a success either way. |
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4th February 2017, 04:07 PM
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#233
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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The full list of candidates for the Copeland by-election are:
Independent - Michael Guest Liberal Democrat - Rebecca Hanson Conservative - Trudy Harrison Independent - Roy Ivinson Green - Jack Lenox UKIP - Fiona Mills Labour - Gillian Troughton No real surprise packages within the candidates to note. My prediction is for a Conservative gain. The candidates for the Stoke-On-Trent By-Election are - Independent - Mohammad Akram Liberal Democrat - Zulfiqar Ali Conservative - Jack Brereton Monster Raving Loony - The Incredible Flying Brick Green - Adam Colclough Christian Peoples - Godfrey Davies Independent - Barbara Fielding BNP - David Furness UKIP - Paul Nuttall Labour - Gareth Snell A much wider range of candidates in this constituency. Outside the question of whether newly minted Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will win the seat (my prediction is that Labour will hold on to it, with Ukip a closer than expected 2nd), one candidate of note is Barbara Fielding, who has a reputation as a vexatious litigant. According to someone familiar with her actions, she's claimed "that the media are affecting her heartbeat, reporters led to the downfall of Kings and Queens and she’ll therefore remove all homosexuals from the media as well as all Jewish reporters." Other bad smells running include seemingly the only member of the BNP left. |
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5th February 2017, 01:31 AM
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#234
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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Still can't get over that candidate labour have in Stoke!
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5th February 2017, 08:15 PM
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#235
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Feb 5 2017, 02:31 AM) Still can't get over that candidate labour have in Stoke! What is it about him that's caused this flurry of disbelief? |
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6th February 2017, 11:08 AM
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#236
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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He's an ardent remainer and former adviser to Tristram!
Totally the opposite of the kind of candidate Labour need to stand in that seat! |
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6th February 2017, 01:55 PM
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#237
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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It's a balancing act - the Lib Dems aren't completely moribund in Stoke, so having a Labour Leave member (not to mention that there's relatively few of them who are viable candidates in many places) might have spoiled our chance to drive up anti-UKIP turnout. Our candidate backs the triggering of Article 50, which at this point is all that matters.
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7th February 2017, 01:15 PM
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#238
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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Wonder if Tristram would have done the same?
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17th February 2017, 07:23 PM
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#239
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Having read the BBC's guide to the Stoke-On-Trent by-election, I am getting a feeling that there's one of the candidates that the BBC is less keen on than the others. Look at the photo of the 4 main candidates on the page and note for which one they chose to use a photo that makes him look like a right eejit.
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17th February 2017, 07:58 PM
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#240
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,093 User: 3,474
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That's amazing!!!
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