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 By-elections 2015 - 2020 |
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 19th February 2017, 04:55 PM
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#241
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 
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So with 4 days until the polls open in the by-election, my predictions are -
Copeland - Conservative gain over Labour, about 1000 votes in it. Stoke Central - a Labour hold, with Ukip a very distant second. Although anything could happen in the next few days. |
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19th February 2017, 07:36 PM
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#242
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 I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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Was in Stoke today but it was hard to tell how it was going. I'm inclined to agree on Copeland.
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20th February 2017, 08:41 PM
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#243
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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The Tories' odds in Stoke have tumbled from 25-1 to 7-1 in the past 24 hours, I'm sorely tempted to put a couple of quid on their chances, even though I still think Labour's going to hold this seat.
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20th February 2017, 09:52 PM
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#244
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561
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Theresa May was in Stoke earlier drumming up support and likely hoping to capitalise on the recent UKIP controversies, that is likely the reason for the shortening odds, there doesn't seem to be any other evidence to suggest that the Tories will gain here. Hard to call it but a narrow Labour hold seems the most likely outcome at this point with UKIP in a very close second (all the private polling is said to show UKIP narrowly ahead, at the moment).
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20th February 2017, 10:01 PM
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#245
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Feb 20 2017, 09:52 PM)  Theresa May was in Stoke earlier drumming up support and likely hoping to capitalise on the recent UKIP controversies, that is likely the reason for the shortening odds, there doesn't seem to be any other evidence to suggest that the Tories will gain here. Hard to call it but a narrow Labour hold seems the most likely outcome at this point with UKIP in a very close second (all the private polling is said to show UKIP narrowly ahead, at the moment). Whose private polling? If it's leave.eu's they'll be doing everything they can to make it look like Ukip are still in with a shot. |
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20th February 2017, 10:09 PM
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#246
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Feb 20 2017, 10:01 PM) Whose private polling? If it's leave.eu's they'll be doing everything they can to make it look like Ukip are still in with a shot. Not sure of the source, it was reported in the Independent. Leave.EU are of course claiming it is a significant lead but I don't believe that! |
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20th February 2017, 11:16 PM
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#247
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Feb 17 2017, 08:23 PM) Having read the BBC's guide to the Stoke-On-Trent by-election, I am getting a feeling that there's one of the candidates that the BBC is less keen on than the others. Look at the photo of the 4 main candidates on the page and note for which one they chose to use a photo that makes him look like a right eejit. Interestingly, it appears that the BBC have since changed the picture to make said eejit look a little less eejity. I'm guessing that someone complained? |
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21st February 2017, 08:50 AM
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#248
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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The Tories might have had a good shot at it had Copeland not been on the same day. I suppose we'll see what the Labour turnout is like on Thursday, but if we only win narrowly and lose by 1,000 or more in Copeland then the Tories might regret putting all their resources on the easier one and not gambling.
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24th February 2017, 09:15 AM
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#249
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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The Conservatives have gained Copeland from Labour, with a majority of 2000.
Labour however managed to hold on to Stoke Central, with a 2,500 majority over 2nd placed Ukip. |
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24th February 2017, 09:32 AM
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#250
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 4 November 2014
Posts: 527 User: 21,342 |
A great night for the Conservatives and these results show that it is possible for the Conservatives to take lots of seats in the North. It's looking more and more like a possible Tory 400+ seats with a 100 majority in the 2020 general election.
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24th February 2017, 09:38 AM
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#251
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,113 User: 18,639
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Lol not in the north east. The north wants nothing to do with the Eton lot ruling the Tories. Nothing to do with us.
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24th February 2017, 09:41 AM
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#252
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Corbyn should go as he's such a liability but he won't. Will he even go after they're crushed in 2020? Heard some Labour guy on Sky News saying they're well on course to form the next Government with Corbyn as PM in 2020 and nearly choked on my coffee with laughing.
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24th February 2017, 09:41 AM
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#253
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 4 November 2014
Posts: 527 User: 21,342 |
QUOTE(Queen LeQueefa @ Feb 24 2017, 09:38 AM) Lol not in the north east. The north wants nothing to do with the Eton lot ruling the Tories. Nothing to do with us. Yeah cause Labour has done so much for the North East in the last CENTURY. |
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24th February 2017, 09:57 AM
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#254
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(PeaceMob @ Feb 24 2017, 09:41 AM) Yeah cause Labour has done so much for the North East in the last CENTURY. Have you even been to Newcastle any time in your life? Get to fuck. |
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24th February 2017, 10:14 AM
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#255
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Buzzjack's Finest Alcoholic.
Joined: 19 November 2011
Posts: 10,367 User: 15,367
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Blyth Valley will never go anything other than Labour. Honestly, I hate our MP but he's part of the furniture now (he's been our MP for 30 years) and our constituency has been around over 50 years and we've only ever had four MPs (that's how long they last up here
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24th February 2017, 10:20 AM
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#256
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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Virtually nothing changed in Stoke, which probably spells doom for Paul Nuttall. UKIP collapsing is good news for the Tories in the short to medium term as it gives them more of an avenue in some Labour seats in the North (by no means all, it's not every day that you have to defend a seat where your leader has 30 years of vocal opposition to its only industry). In the long term, UKIP eating itself makes it more likely that we can retain our status as the undisputed second party in the country until the time comes that we can actually win an election.
As you might be able to tell, I'm trying really hard to be positive. |
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24th February 2017, 10:33 AM
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#257
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Can't do it anymore. Rejoined Labour.
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24th February 2017, 10:34 AM
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#258
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,486 User: 21,753
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QUOTE(Oliver @ Feb 24 2017, 10:14 AM) Blyth Valley will never go anything other than Labour. Honestly, I hate our MP but he's part of the furniture now (he's been our MP for 30 years) and our constituency has been around over 50 years and we've only ever had four MPs (that's how long they last up here ).My constituency has had 7 MPs since 1885 Speaking of which, I think Gisela Stuart will be gone this time. Her majority has been narrowing each election and the fact she supported Leave will probably go against her. My dad will be pleased, he can't stand her! So quietly hopeful ~ |
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24th February 2017, 10:37 AM
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#259
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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I don't think it'll spell immediate doom for Paul Nuttall, I think he'll stay on as leader in the medium term, but it does deal a real hammer blow to Ukip. If the upcoming local elections see Ukip either losing or maintaining about the same level of seats, then that'll be the sign that Ukip is spent as a political force.
I've said before that there is a market that Ukip could exploit post-Brexit - one that mixes a populist approach with economic policies that directly help, and appeal to, the working classes. However, the last year has shown that Ukip can't go beyond being the "anti-EU" party, and their perceived stance towards the NHS will be a millstone around their neck that they just can't remove. Personally, I'd love to see a Christian Democracy-type party, a la those on mainland Europe, become a force within UK politics, although in Great Britain at least, I think that ship has well and truly sailed. |
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24th February 2017, 10:39 AM
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#260
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Feb 24 2017, 11:33 AM) Can't do it anymore. Rejoined Labour. Will you be rejoining the Lib Dems again the next time they win a by-election? 
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