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 The lovely discussion of all things EU and/or Brexit, Part V |
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 Jan 14 2019, 10:12 PM
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#61
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 I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753 
     
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QUOTE(Harve @ Jan 14 2019, 05:20 PM)  My guess for tomorrow's vote. Discounting abstainers and the possibility of amendments no longer making it a straight vote on the government's deal. Against WA Conservative rebels: 98 DUP: 10 Labour: 246 Others: 57 For WA Conservatives: 219 Labour rebels: 8 (Ex-)LD rebel: 1 Ind: 3 411 against vs 231 for That was the prediction I legit told Lotti on Facebook yesterday, stop snooping my messages!! Well close, my prediction is: 230 for 409 against 11 Sinn Fein / Speaker / Deputies |
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Jan 15 2019, 06:37 AM
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#62
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(BotchLikeThis @ Jan 14 2019, 10:12 PM) That was the prediction I legit told Lotti on Facebook yesterday, stop snooping my messages!! Well close, my prediction is: 230 for 409 against 11 Sinn Fein / Speaker / Deputies I don't think the margin will be ask wide as that - maybe 130. |
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Jan 15 2019, 01:31 PM
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#63
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,812 User: 17,376
 
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 14 2019, 06:14 AM) But what this follow-up vote wouldl not determine, is whether voters have actually changed their minds over leaving Yes it would. If Leave win again then the original voters, plus those who have switched to Leave, or voted for the first time to cover those who changed their mind or died, shows that more or less people are happy with the deal they got vs the deal promised. If Remain is the end, then that is democracy in action. Brexiters are still free to come up with a realistic plan to produce the end they can all agree on BEFORE splitting up parties and the country on vagueness and lies that they can't follow-through on. A decade down the line there's no reason why either side can't test opinion again if it's still as close it has been over the last 3 years. That's democracy, and that's why we had a vote in the first and second place. |
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Jan 15 2019, 02:58 PM
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#64
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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I wonder if it's occurred to Corbyn that Labour becoming the gov't now would be the ultimate poisoned chalice?
He'll be stuck with dealing with Brexit - if he supports it, he'll have to deal with any -ve consequences - if he doesn't, he'll be deemed as showing contempt for democracy... |
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Jan 15 2019, 05:44 PM
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#65
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
  
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 15 2019, 02:58 PM) I wonder if it's occurred to Corbyn that Labour becoming the gov't now would be the ultimate poisoned chalice? He'll be stuck with dealing with Brexit - if he supports it, he'll have to deal with any -ve consequences - if he doesn't, he'll be deemed as showing contempt for democracy... The chance of Labour forming a government is very, very low. To get a GE with the Fixed Term Parliament Act is incredibly difficult - and tabling a motion of no confidence in the government (possible that this will happen tonight with increasing amounts of pressure) will be defeated anyway as the Conservatives/DUP aren't likely to vote to cause their own government to fall. Still think with abstentions etc. that the margin of defeat tonight won't be as great as the media seem to be anticipating. Still a pretty baked in defeat though all the same. |
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Jan 15 2019, 07:40 PM
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#66
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,595 User: 88
     
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Corbyn can just get out, why he is still beating the drum about a GE - absolute muffins. We need to sort the mess out we are currently in.
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Jan 15 2019, 07:42 PM
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#67
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,532 User: 11,746
       
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She lost the vote.
202 to 432 |
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Jan 15 2019, 07:43 PM
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#68
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The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,104 User: 9,232
    
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Truly a shocker.
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Jan 15 2019, 07:43 PM
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#69
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
   
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The biggest government defeat in history.
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Jan 15 2019, 07:45 PM
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#70
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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Corbyn tables motion of no confidence in the government...
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Jan 15 2019, 07:46 PM
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#71
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
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She's just called Labour's bluff about a General Election. Guess we will see what happens now.
May has completely lost the plot, I know that. |
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Jan 15 2019, 07:47 PM
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#72
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🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,532 User: 11,746
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 15 2019, 07:45 PM) Corbyn tables motion of no confidence in the government... What a non-surprise! |
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Jan 15 2019, 07:48 PM
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#73
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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The government payroll vote (ministers plus ministerial aides) is around 120. That means only about 80 backbench MPs (not all of them Tories) voted for the deal.
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Jan 15 2019, 07:49 PM
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#74
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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QUOTE(danuary @ Jan 15 2019, 07:47 PM) What a non-surprise! It is a bit surprising actually - the government should win it easily and so it puts pressure on the Labour leadership to move on to supporting 'other options' including a second referendum. |
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Jan 15 2019, 07:51 PM
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#75
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Wish the DUP would pull the plug on the Tories. Can't Corbyn promise them something in exchange for their support?
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Jan 15 2019, 07:51 PM
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#76
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,595 User: 88
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 15 2019, 07:49 PM) It is a bit surprising actually - the government should win it easily and so it puts pressure on the Labour leadership to move on to supporting 'other options' including a second referendum. I can't see him doing that when so many Labour constituencies voted to Leave. |
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Jan 15 2019, 08:03 PM
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#77
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
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Wow at her being absolutely destroyed like that!
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Jan 15 2019, 08:06 PM
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#78
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753
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As you can see from my above prediction, I knew she would lose badly but by 230 votes is catastrophic.
How on earth any government is able to pick themselves up from such a monumental defeat, I don't know. |
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Jan 15 2019, 08:07 PM
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#79
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 15 2019, 06:37 AM) I don't think the margin will be ask wide as that - maybe 130. This aged very badly |
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Jan 15 2019, 08:14 PM
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#80
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 Break the tension
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 88,874 User: 51
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May the farce be with you.
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