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 The lovely discussion of all things EU and/or Brexit, Part V |
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 15th January 2019, 09:10 PM
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#101
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 
    
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris @ Jan 15 2019, 08:51 PM)  Wish the DUP would pull the plug on the Tories. Can't Corbyn promise them something in exchange for their support? The DUP have said that they couldn't support Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, due to his historical links to members of the IRA. They have been willing in the past to work with Labour under other leaders (they would have been willing to strike a deal with Labour in 2010 when a hung parliament became inevitable), so would likely only do it again if Labour had a different leader. Whether Labour would want to do a deal with them is another story. |
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15th January 2019, 09:13 PM
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#102
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 Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jan 15 2019, 09:03 PM) Let's be honest, all lines point to a 2nd Referendum. May will win the No Confidence vote and the Labour Centrists will use the defeat as a way to try and get Corbyn to resign. 85% of MPs realise a No Deal for this country is absolutely stupid and won't allow it to happen. We are not getting a better deal, it's a surprise May negotiated a deal as we got. I expect it will get put down to a vote between The Deal and Stay in the EU, no way I can see No Deal on that ballot paper. Labour Centrists and Second Referendum-ists might not be happy with Corbyn's current stance on Brexit, but I don't think they would call for Corbyn to resign. Especially as the Conservatives are so divided, they would probably recognize why Labour has to stay united, or as united as possible anyway. |
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15th January 2019, 09:14 PM
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#103
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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As for this, it's an absolute poo-storm. No support in parliament for Theresa's deal, for No Deal, or for Remaining in the EU. Another General Election will just kick the can down the road, and won't stop the fact that the UK is still to leave in March, and will probably still end up with neither of the main parties with enough support to command a majority, and neither of the options will have support either. I've no idea how things will sort themselves out, but a new Referendum seems likely. Although as I've said before, I'd be worried at what happens if Brexit doesn't end up happening, either through parliament or through a potential follow-up Referendum.
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15th January 2019, 09:18 PM
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#104
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,457 User: 23,308
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 15 2019, 09:10 PM) The DUP have said that they couldn't support Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, due to his historical links to members of the IRA. They have been willing in the past to work with Labour under other leaders (they would have been willing to strike a deal with Labour in 2010 when a hung parliament became inevitable), so would likely only do it again if Labour had a different leader. Whether Labour would want to do a deal with them is another story. Yep Labour would almost certainly insist that making abortion (and perhaps gay marriage too) legal in Northern Ireland would be a condition before they would do a deal with the DUP. It would still be tough for the DUP to support Labour and vice versa anyway because of their differences in the political spectrum. This post has been edited by The Snake: 15th January 2019, 09:21 PM |
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15th January 2019, 09:18 PM
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#105
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
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QUOTE(The Snake @ Jan 15 2019, 09:13 PM) Labour Centrists and Second Referendum-ists might not be happy with Corbyn's current stance on Brexit, but I don't think they would call for Corbyn to resign. Especially as the Conservatives are so divided, they would probably recognize why Labour has to stay united, or as united as possible anyway. Anyone hoping for Labour to back a second referendum if they lose tomorrow's confidence vote shouldn't hold their breath. Corbyn spokesman just made clear that repeated confidence motions and an attempt to get Labour's own Brexit plan through Commons far more likely. https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1085277714985164812 Can only see this ending with either both parties having a change of leadership shortly or a new Centrist party emerging. |
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15th January 2019, 09:19 PM
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#106
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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How does a new referendum happen with May as PM though BB? She will refuse to resign and won't ever support one!
How would she campaign in such a referendum ? I just don't really see it happening... We're left with a government not in power, that cannot govern and cannot be removed. With complete disaster looming in just 73 days. 'Yay'. |
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15th January 2019, 09:22 PM
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#107
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jan 15 2019, 10:18 PM) Can only see this ending with either both parties having a change of leadership shortly or a new Centrist party emerging. As much as I'd love to see that happening, I can't see it becoming a thing. |
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15th January 2019, 09:22 PM
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#108
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 15 2019, 09:19 PM) We're left with a government not in power, that cannot govern and cannot be removed. With complete disaster looming in just 73 days. 'Yay'. Well it does look like the deadline will have to be extended. |
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15th January 2019, 09:26 PM
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#109
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 15 2019, 10:19 PM) How does a new referendum happen with May as PM though BB? She will refuse to resign and won't ever support one! To be honest, I have no clue. Although at this point, I wouldn't rule out the unexpected. |
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15th January 2019, 09:33 PM
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#110
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,597 User: 88
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 15 2019, 09:19 PM) How does a new referendum happen with May as PM though BB? She will refuse to resign and won't ever support one! How would she campaign in such a referendum ? I just don't really see it happening... We're left with a government not in power, that cannot govern and cannot be removed. With complete disaster looming in just 73 days. 'Yay'. A number of ways really I suspect: 1) More MPs get behind the People's Vote and the movement grows 2) The EU agree to extend the withdrawl date on the basis on a 2nd Referendum 3) May can't get the deal through and the only way it can get through is through a vote |
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15th January 2019, 09:41 PM
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#111
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jan 15 2019, 09:33 PM) 2) The EU agree to extend the withdrawl date on the basis on a 2nd Referendum A question, as I am not sure about this: Would the EU not extend the withdrawal date without conditions? I thought extending the withdrawal date would suit the EU? 
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15th January 2019, 09:44 PM
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#112
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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I think they'd be reluctant to do so because there are 5-yearly EU elections in May, and so it throws up all kinds of difficulties as to whether the UK could field/keep MEPs. Therefore, they'd probably only do it if we were holding either a second referendum or a General Election. Both seem unlikely, but as Christopher says - don't rule out the unexpected.
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15th January 2019, 09:44 PM
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#113
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,597 User: 88
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QUOTE(The Snake @ Jan 15 2019, 09:41 PM) A question, as I am not sure about this: Would the EU not extend the withdrawal date without conditions? I thought extending the withdrawal date would suit the EU? They can do whatever the hell they want, but it's in their interest for us to stay in the EU. But anyway, whatever happens the Government need to pull their fingers out cos we can't hold a referendum before March 29th. It was absolute gobbins of May to do what she did without any sort of a plan. A no-deal for us is going to be absolutely horrific. We'll basically be coordinated chaos for a month. |
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15th January 2019, 09:45 PM
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#114
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,457 User: 23,308
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Oh I forgot about the MEPs before I asked that question, oops!
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15th January 2019, 09:47 PM
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#115
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Bitch of t seet
Joined: 2 April 2012
Posts: 27,395 User: 16,660
 
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QUOTE(The Snake @ Jan 15 2019, 10:41 PM) A question, as I am not sure about this: Would the EU not extend the withdrawal date without conditions? I thought extending the withdrawal date would suit the EU? It'd need a full 27 member state backing and without a garantee for some sort of solution, I can't see it happening. Especially as the others said with the elections coming up |
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15th January 2019, 09:53 PM
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#116
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
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Or we could simply rescind the notice and cancel Article 50 and re-serve it the next day, giving us a fresh two year period ;o
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15th January 2019, 09:55 PM
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#117
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 15 2019, 09:44 PM) I think they'd be reluctant to do so because there are 5-yearly EU elections in May, and so it throws up all kinds of difficulties as to whether the UK could field/keep MEPs. Therefore, they'd probably only do it if we were holding either a second referendum or a General Election. Both seem unlikely, but as Christopher says - don't rule out the unexpected. Sky News emphasising the same. Extension only for a GE or referendum. This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: 15th January 2019, 09:56 PM |
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15th January 2019, 09:55 PM
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#118
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Bitch of t seet
Joined: 2 April 2012
Posts: 27,395 User: 16,660
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What an idea
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15th January 2019, 10:10 PM
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#119
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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QUOTE(BotchLikeThis @ Jan 15 2019, 09:53 PM) Or we could simply rescind the notice and cancel Article 50 and re-serve it the next day, giving us a fresh two year period ;o Didn’t the court rule that we could rescind Article 50 but not if this was our intention? |
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15th January 2019, 10:13 PM
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#120
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Jan 15 2019, 10:10 PM) Didn’t the court rule that we could rescind Article 50 but not if this was our intention? I don't believe it was carried through to the final ruling, but was in the original advice |
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