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> The lovely discussion of all things EU and/or Brexit, Part V
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Doctor Blind
post 17th January 2019, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(ScottyEm @ Jan 17 2019, 09:40 PM) *
I was a big supporter of the people’s vote however I’ve gonna cold on the idea. I think it’ll cause more instability within communities etc. One thing everyone will agree on is that there is no solution that a majority will be happy with. I think the best solution and I predict will happen will be another several months of watering down and chipping away until we get something that will pass through parliament. I think we will get some line in line with the Norway model albeit it’ll take us bloody ages to get there.


Yes, I currently think that Norway+ (EFTA) is the most likely outcome, though it doesn't remove all of the issues. I'm actually coming around to the idea of a new EU referendum but am still worried about the potential for it to be framed by Leave as Westminster saying to the general public ‘You got this wrong, try again’ which could potentially lead to an even higher leave vote.
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crazy chris
post 17th January 2019, 10:00 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 17 2019, 09:55 PM) *
Yes, I currently think that Norway+ (EFTA) is the most likely outcome, though it doesn't remove all of the issues. I'm actually coming around to the idea of a new EU referendum but am still worried about the potential for it to be framed by Leave as Westminster saying to the general public ‘You got this wrong, try again’ which could potentially lead to an even higher leave vote.


Yes that's a possibilty but I think it would actually get more young people/students out to vote and give a remain result. Am sure remain would win any second referendum comfortably.
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Brett-Butler
post 17th January 2019, 10:51 PM
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Some random musings - if Article 50 is delayed by six months, as it could be, then we could be in a position where the UK could end up voting in the EU Parliamentary elections, which are due to take place in May - it was taken as a given that the UK wouldn't vote in this as we would have been outside of the EU by this point, but if the UK does vote, then it could end up being quite interesting indeed. What would also be interesting is whether the deal that will be on the table post-election will be any different - given the populist shift in the past 5 years, the make-up of the Europe-wide Parliament c.2019 will be a very different beast of the c.2014 parliament - it could be possible that this EU, which is likely to be of a more Eurosceptic bent than the current one, could end up offering the UK a deal that is more palatable to Westminster, and could lead to a Brexit-deal in the year.

As I said, just random musings. I'm reluctant to make predictions as I have no idea what's going to happen, but the scenario I've outlined above might not beyond the realms of reality.
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crazy chris
post 17th January 2019, 11:29 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 17 2019, 10:51 PM) *
Some random musings - if Article 50 is delayed by six months, as it could be, then we could be in a position where the UK could end up voting in the EU Parliamentary elections, which are due to take place in May - it was taken as a given that the UK wouldn't vote in this as we would have been outside of the EU by this point, but if the UK does vote, then it could end up being quite interesting indeed. What would also be interesting is whether the deal that will be on the table post-election will be any different - given the populist shift in the past 5 years, the make-up of the Europe-wide Parliament c.2019 will be a very different beast of the c.2014 parliament - it could be possible that this EU, which is likely to be of a more Eurosceptic bent than the current one, could end up offering the UK a deal that is more palatable to Westminster, and could lead to a Brexit-deal in the year.

As I said, just random musings. I'm reluctant to make predictions as I have no idea what's going to happen, but the scenario I've outlined above might not beyond the realms of reality.


Gordon Brown says that the way forward is a delay of 12 months of A50 to allow further negotiations with the EU and lots of local consultation meetings to find out what the public really wants.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: 18th January 2019, 03:33 PM
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vidcapper
post 18th January 2019, 06:35 AM
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Jan 17 2019, 06:25 PM) *
The fact that we are barely 2 months away from the exit date and have no deal/plan for what happens next surely makes even the most moronic people realise that Brexit wasn’t a very good idea.


The notion that we should remain in the EU merely 'because the exit process would be extremely complicated' holds no weight with me.


QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 17 2019, 06:44 PM) *
She's lying - again. And it's about time somebody asked her why it would be wrong to overturn the result of an advisory referendum o which the winning side broke the law. There is little point in bothering with electoral law if there are no consequences for breaking it.


Generally speaking, the punishment for doing that is a fine, not overturning the result.

Only if the result is *extremely* close, say within 0.5%, might there be a legitimate reason to challenge the validity of it.

QUOTE(Calum @ Jan 17 2019, 09:46 PM) *
Chris can't comprehend the fact that many migrants that come to the UK do make worthy and substantial contributions to society, and instead opts to believe that all migrants must be the root cause of rising pressure on the DWP, NHS, etc. No UK nationals would ever be part of the issue. drama.gif


I'm not one of those who claims that most immigrants do not make a contribution, but conversely, I feel that those immigrants who commit crimes should be given no second chances!
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Popchartfreak
post 18th January 2019, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 18 2019, 06:35 AM) *
The notion that we should remain in the EU merely 'because the exit process would be extremely complicated' holds no weight with me.
Generally speaking, the punishment for doing that is a fine, not overturning the result.

Only if the result is *extremely* close, say within 0.5%, might there be a legitimate reason to challenge the validity of it.
I'm not one of those who claims that most immigrants do not make a contribution, but conversely, I feel that those immigrants who commit crimes should be given no second chances!


The decision isn't due to compexity it's due to the sheer amount of damage leaving without a deal will do, and extending time to make arrangements to not shoot ourselves in the foot NO MATTER WHAT IS THE END DECSISION.

The referendum was based on lies financed by foreign rich people and governments via a corrupt now-bankrupt company, on one side. That is fairly substantial and must have influenced quite a lot of people - otherwise why did they feel the need to make ridiculous promises that remain unfulfilled and accept illegal foreign money? They felt the ends justified the means, so the result is clearly very suspect. That Leavers are so so frightened of a re-run without corruption and lies proves they know that to be a fact.

I think we can all agree that anyone who breaks the law should be punished. What annoys me is that EU supporters get the blame for any actions taken by EU citizens as if it's our fault or the EU's fault, yet Britain-for-British supporters don't get the blame for the vast majority of crime which is carried out by British citizens. Illogic, as I pointed out to my anti-EU friend on the Tube on Saturday when an EU citizen worse for wear from booze was playing loud music, was asked to turn it off by a bloke out with his partner, and then said noise-maker got unreasonably verbally abusive and threatening, at which point I got the blame for supporting EU citizens by my friend who's other closest friends ARE ALL EU CITIZENS AND ONE OF THEIR PARTNERS ALSO VOTED FOR BREXIT. Yet somehow they aren't equally "guilty" for it, just me. I put that record straight right away. People are so hypocritical.....
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vidcapper
post 18th January 2019, 04:14 PM
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More random musings...

WE know that the 1975 referendum had 66% support for the EU (or it's predecessor), and the 2016 one had just 48% support for it. If. as claimed demographics is shifting support back to Remain, then there must've been a point between 1975 & 2016 where the support foe Leave was even higher then it was on 23/6/16 - when would that actually have been?
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Iz 🌟
post 18th January 2019, 04:53 PM
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Can't really do that kind of false equivalency.

Prior to 2015, it was such a comparative non-issue. The ref forced every voter to have an opinion and created this poisonous Leave-Remain divide nearly all by itself. Yes, you had people banging on about the EU (based on what they had read in low quality newspapers about politicians using the EU as a convenient scapegoat) and from polls taken, the highest point Leave reached was 56% in 2012, but because the wider public hadn't been even exposed to the arguments about what leaving the EU would mean, it makes those polls incomparable to ones taken after the referendum was made a certainty and even less comparable to the post-referendum ones. Incidentally, comparing 1975 to 2016 as a Remain-Leave (or EU or not?) divide is similarly an invalid comparison because of how wildly different the questions are and how non-existent those two sides were. I mean what they stand for and the culture around 'belonging' to one side, not the literal positions.

In any case, because of the short memory of the public and their changeable opinions, you're probably just looking for an event in the interim which made the EU look extra bad at the time. Post-2008 with Greece's collapse would be my guess.
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Calum
post 18th January 2019, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 18 2019, 06:35 AM) *
I'm not one of those who claims that most immigrants do not make a contribution, but conversely, I feel that those immigrants who commit crimes should be given no second chances!

Like John's just said, anyone who commits a crime should be punished. But essentially what you're saying is that you think if an immigrant commits a crime they should no longer be allowed to remain the UK and should be sent back to their home country? What about UK citizens that commit crimes? Are you going to have them exiled from the UK, or let them stay because there's an elitist and backward attitude that UK citizens are any better than EU migrants?
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TheSnake
post 18th January 2019, 07:56 PM
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jan 18 2019, 04:53 PM) *
Can't really do that kind of false equivalency.

Prior to 2015, it was such a comparative non-issue. The ref forced every voter to have an opinion and created this poisonous Leave-Remain divide nearly all by itself. Yes, you had people banging on about the EU (based on what they had read in low quality newspapers about politicians using the EU as a convenient scapegoat) and from polls taken, the highest point Leave reached was 56% in 2012, but because the wider public hadn't been even exposed to the arguments about what leaving the EU would mean, it makes those polls incomparable to ones taken after the referendum was made a certainty and even less comparable to the post-referendum ones. Incidentally, comparing 1975 to 2016 as a Remain-Leave (or EU or not?) divide is similarly an invalid comparison because of how wildly different the questions are and how non-existent those two sides were. I mean what they stand for and the culture around 'belonging' to one side, not the literal positions.

In any case, because of the short memory of the public and their changeable opinions, you're probably just looking for an event in the interim which made the EU look extra bad at the time. Post-2008 with Greece's collapse would be my guess.


The whole Greece thing may have contributed a little bit to the rise of Euroscepticism in the UK, it did make the EU look bad, and many people thought the EU treating Greece too harshly at the time.
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*Tim
post 18th January 2019, 08:03 PM
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QUOTE(The Snake @ Jan 18 2019, 08:56 PM) *
The whole Greece thing may have contributed a little bit to the rise of Euroscepticism in the UK, it did make the EU look bad, and many people thought the EU treating Greece too harshly at the time.

I think mostly the greek thought that. The rest was just angry/annoyed that money kept going there without a noticable effort from the greek for a long time
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Silas
post 19th January 2019, 12:18 AM
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Yeah the more north and west you go from Greece the more it was about the irresponsible Greeks and why should we save them than the EU. The struggling southern states are more like to side with the Greeks but currently it seems to just be Italy. Spain and Portugal, especially the later, played by the rules (they complained and weren’t happy but they did it) from the EU and got stuck in to the reforms and are now financially in a much better position. Portugal went through a lot but they survived and came out of it because the EU forced them to make some hard choices and get their act together.

I am not overly supportive of the EUs approach to Greece or the fact that they pushed austerity but they had one thing really really right in that the countries needed to learn to live within their means and not splurge on credit that’s cheap but they’d never be able to pay back in a month of Sunday’s. It’s not comparable to where we were/are because we were living within our means by supporting the economy during a moment of crisis, it’s exactly the things governments should borrow for (the year pre-crisis where we should have been a bit better with the cash is another conversation) and it’s the cash that is then recovered when the economy stabilises. Portugal and Greece had such an aggressive tax gap that they were spending money they’d no hope of ever recovering and in the case of Greece it was on things that didn’t stimulate or grow the economy. All that cash on Olympic venues that are now rotting. It’s a waste of cash. Glasgow 2014 spent money refurbishing existing facilities that were well used and continue to be well used. The athletes village was designed to become social housing from the very very very first conversation which helped too
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vidcapper
post 19th January 2019, 06:19 AM
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QUOTE(Calum @ Jan 18 2019, 05:54 PM) *
Like John's just said, anyone who commits a crime should be punished. But essentially what you're saying is that you think if an immigrant commits a crime they should no longer be allowed to remain the UK and should be sent back to their home country? What about UK citizens that commit crimes? Are you going to have them exiled from the UK, or let them stay because there's an elitist and backward attitude that UK citizens are any better than EU migrants?


We can't get rid of British criminals, alas - but I see no reason we can't deport EU ones.

If someone arrives as a guest but doesn't abide by our laws, we should be entitled to ask them to leave - I can see nothing wrong with that.
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Suedehead2
post 19th January 2019, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 19 2019, 06:19 AM) *
We can't get rid of British criminals, alas - but I see no reason we can't deport EU ones.

If someone arrives as a guest but doesn't abide by our laws, we should be entitled to ask them to leave - I can see nothing wrong with that.

Although they will, of course, she moly be replaced by British criminals deported from other countries. Funnily enough, the right-wing press tends to get upset about that as well. Consistency has never been their strongest point.
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Popchartfreak
post 19th January 2019, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 19 2019, 09:21 AM) *
Although they will, of course, she moly be replaced by British criminals deported from other countries. Funnily enough, the right-wing press tends to get upset about that as well. Consistency has never been their strongest point.


I'd say "logic" and "reality" has never been their strongest point laugh.gif
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crazy chris
post 19th January 2019, 10:52 PM
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Sky News saying they have it on good authority that May has decided to call a general election for February 28th, just a month before we leave the EU. This comes after top level meetings with her Cabinet ministers and senior party officials today.

This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: 19th January 2019, 10:53 PM
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Silas
post 19th January 2019, 10:54 PM
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Oh for f*** sake not another one
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crazy chris
post 19th January 2019, 10:55 PM
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I frankly don't believe it. Can't see her going for an election now and risk letting Corbyn in. Can't see two-thirds of MP's voting for an election either.

Once she'd got Parliament's permission and seen The Queen this week there'd only be a month to campaign. Isn't it usually 6 weeks? rolleyes.gif


Also didn't she say she wouldn't fight another election? rolleyes.gif


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: 19th January 2019, 11:02 PM
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TheSnake
post 19th January 2019, 11:02 PM
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It's not on the BBC News website, and yes it would be a silly move from the Conservatives perspective, there would be more chance of Labour winning (albeit probably with no overall majority and having to form a coalition) than the Conservatives getting their majority back.

This post has been edited by The Snake: 19th January 2019, 11:04 PM
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crazy chris
post 19th January 2019, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(The Snake @ Jan 19 2019, 11:02 PM) *
It's not on the BBC News headlines, and yes it would be a silly move from the Conservatives perspective, there would be more chance of Labour winning (albeit probably with no overall majority) than the Conservatives getting their majority back.



Nothing on Sky's website but I heard it about 9.40pm and it was "Breaking News" as is most news on Sky. rolleyes.gif
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