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> European Election Thread 2019, EU, baby.
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European Elections
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Botchia
post Apr 13 2019, 02:56 PM
Post #21
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We could end up with some very messy results based on the opinion polls but I guess campaigning hasn't started yet!
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 14 2019, 01:04 PM
Post #22
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UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they?

If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP.

Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP.

So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost.
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vidcapper
post Apr 14 2019, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 14 2019, 02:04 PM) *
UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they?

If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP.

Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP.

So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost.


Given the short notice, the quality of candidates all round is likely to be low. sad.gif
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TheSnake
post Apr 14 2019, 02:30 PM
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I am sure the Brexit Party will do better than UKIP in the European election because UKIP is becoming a bit of a tainted brand, and on the other side of the Brexit spectrum, Change UK will do better than the Lib Dems (although that will be closer between the two).

Meanwhile almost certainly the Conservatives will have a disastrous performance and probably Labour will make some slight gains, but not do as well as they should be doing under the circumstances.


This post has been edited by TheSnake: Apr 14 2019, 02:34 PM
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 14 2019, 02:30 PM
Post #25
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Nah. The provisional Lib Dem list for the same area contains two former MPs, school governors, environmental scientists, people with experience in international organisations. I was impressed. People that looked like the sort of people we would send to be MEPs for the full allotted time, not those who've gotten internet famous from being intentionally abrasive and with skeletons spilling out of their closets. UKIP is scraping.
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TheSnake
post Apr 14 2019, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 14 2019, 03:30 PM) *
Nah. The provisional Lib Dem list for the same area contains two former MPs, school governors, environmental scientists, people with experience in international organisations. I was impressed. People that looked like the sort of people we would send to be MEPs for the full allotted time, not those who've gotten internet famous from being intentionally abrasive and with skeletons spilling out of their closets. UKIP is scraping.


You think the Lib Dems will do better than Change UK then, even though Change UK have the benefit of being shiny and new?
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 14 2019, 02:46 PM
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QUOTE(TheSnake @ Apr 14 2019, 03:35 PM) *
You think the Lib Dems will do better than Change UK then, even though Change UK have the benefit of being shiny and new?


Shiny & new ≠ Good, especially when politics is involved.
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 14 2019, 02:49 PM
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Almost certainly I'd say, though I am a tad biased. LDs already have an infrastructure and an identity, and they've been the biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum. For those who it's an issue, they also oppose federalism in Europe, and are a bit less likely to be soulless neoliberals. CUK could gain centrist ground but I'm not seeing a world where they manage to place themselves as THE remain party.

Being the most established pro-Remain party I think will put them at least 4th overall if not better. Where they've often been held back in elections is their fragmented spread of voters that works against them with FPTP. They were 5th last time but that was at their lowest ebb of popularity, I think they'll get some more this time.
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 14 2019, 02:51 PM
Post #29
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 14 2019, 02:04 PM) *
UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they?

If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP.

Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP.

So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost.


I guess we should be glad that Paul Joseph Watson of InfoWars, who joined at the same time, isn't on the list (as of yet), so small mercies & all that. But yes, not a good look

I imagine these internet "personalities" will be putting their emphasis on the recent EU vote over copyright reform in relation to Article 13, aka the "Meme Ban" bill. It is something that many people have issues with, especially given the shenanigans that happened to get it through, but these are definitely not the people you want flying the flag on the issue.
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Silas
post Apr 14 2019, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 14 2019, 03:49 PM) *
Almost certainly I'd say, though I am a tad biased. LDs already have an infrastructure and an identity, and they've been the biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum. For those who it's an issue, they also oppose federalism in Europe, and are a bit less likely to be soulless neoliberals. CUK could gain centrist ground but I'm not seeing a world where they manage to place themselves as THE remain party.

Being the most established pro-Remain party I think will put them at least 4th overall if not better. Where they've often been held back in elections is their fragmented spread of voters that works against them with FPTP. They were 5th last time but that was at their lowest ebb of popularity, I think they'll get some more this time.

Biggest party by Members or MPs? Because they're second on both counts to the SNP and the SNP don't even stand outside of Scotland.
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Suedehead2
post Apr 14 2019, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 14 2019, 04:34 PM) *
Biggest party by Members or MPs? Because they're second on both counts to the SNP and the SNP don't even stand outside of Scotland.

Let's just settle for the description "UK-wide party". Besides, he said "most established", not "biggest".
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Silas
post Apr 14 2019, 04:11 PM
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"biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum"

Hence the Q.
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 14 2019, 05:23 PM
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I said both but I was simply thinking UK-wide (or, fine, just England!) as the SNP are not an option for most of the electorate.
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Rooney
post Apr 14 2019, 06:08 PM
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UKIP will do nothing in the elections, they're basically a re-branded BNP now. Sure they'll pick up some of the votes, but they're basically a Fascist party now.

If Farage hadn't founded the Brexit party then I could see things being different. Plus the Brexit party gives Farage (who was UKIP) a platform to blame everyone for not seeing through Brexit rah, rah, rah. It's just a pure populist party which is dangerous, as populist parties are but I can see why a Brexiteer would vote for them. If any Brexiteer votes for the UKIP party, well, they need their head knocking on!
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vidcapper
post Apr 15 2019, 05:29 AM
Post #35
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 14 2019, 07:08 PM) *
UKIP will do nothing in the elections, they're basically a re-branded BNP now. Sure they'll pick up some of the votes, but they're basically a Fascist party now.

If Farage hadn't founded the Brexit party then I could see things being different. Plus the Brexit party gives Farage (who was UKIP) a platform to blame everyone for not seeing through Brexit rah, rah, rah. It's just a pure populist party which is dangerous, as populist parties are but I can see why a Brexiteer would vote for them. If any Brexiteer votes for the UKIP party, well, they need their head knocking on!


That depends -

1. They might not realise that UKIP have changed.

2. They might be so pissed off at the fiasco over BRexit, that they'll vote for them despite the change.
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Popchartfreak
post Apr 16 2019, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 15 2019, 06:29 AM) *
That depends -

1. They might not realise that UKIP have changed.

2. They might be so pissed off at the fiasco over BRexit, that they'll vote for them despite the change.


Sounds like you're saying UKIP voters are too stupid to notice the changes or so extreme that they'll vote for them in spite of the move to the nutty far-right. That doesn;t sound very complimentary either way tongue.gif
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vidcapper
post Apr 17 2019, 05:28 AM
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QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Apr 16 2019, 01:05 PM) *
Sounds like you're saying UKIP voters are too stupid to notice the changes or so extreme that they'll vote for them in spite of the move to the nutty far-right. That doesn;t sound very complimentary either way tongue.gif


That was not my intention. rolleyes.gif
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Popchartfreak
post Apr 20 2019, 09:43 AM
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well here's a depressingly potentially accurate summary of what's likely to happen....

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2...ections-eu-vote
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 20 2019, 10:00 AM
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Lord Buckethead, the satirical character who stood against Theresa May in the 2017 General Election (and previously stood against Margaret Thatcher & John Major in 1987 & 1992 respectively) is hoping to stand in the EU elections against Nigel Farage. Although he has never polled greater than 1%, and due to the party list system stands no chance of getting in even if his support increased 10-fold, in this topsy-turvy political world a slight part of me can't rule him out.
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 20 2019, 10:06 AM
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...which is why it's more important than ever for Remain forces to start coming together. The Lib Dems need to get back into the media, Change UK need to sort out how they're batting.

Consider the narrative that comes from the result of the elections first. Which is possibly more important than the actual result. The Brexit party comes top and the conversation is how there is still desire on that side. If it's a good lead. However if they come very close behind Labour, with Lib Dem/Green/ChangeUK all polling somewhat decently, while UKIP courting only the vote from insane internet incels and the Tories floundering, then I don't know that it'd be as easy to spin the result. In fact, one would then be encouraged to count Leave MEPs/Remain MEPS and the latter would look pretty good.

It being proportional is going to help this a lot. If you understand the system, you'll see there are no wasted votes. And then to counter my other point, you have more chance of blocking a UKIP or 2nd Brexit MEP in your region by voting someone like the Greens (though try and check local polling to be sure). This is the one election where a cause being divided is actually pretty strong. As long as each party can poll ENOUGH to get over the line (i.e. at least half of the highest vote total), we could end up with an election where the average constituency sends one of each of the seven major parties. Of course, many have less.
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