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| Adele - 30 (First Week Sales Predictions) |
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 21st October 2021, 12:37 AM
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#61
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 BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 7 May 2021
Posts: 276 User: 129,529 
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QUOTE(Bré @ Oct 20 2021, 11:25 PM)  I don't think Ed will beat 79k with this album but he could well get the 2nd highest streaming sales week behind himself (iirc there's quite a large gap between his record and 2nd place). From what I can find the Top 5 currently stands at (unless I'm missing something): 1) Ed Sheeran - '÷' (1st week) (78,944) 2) Ed Sheeran - '÷' (2nd week) (58,280) 3) Ed Sheeran - 'No.6 Collaborations Project' (49,858) 4) Drake - 'Scorpion' (49,715) 5) Ariana Grande - 'thank u, next' (43,811) I expect that by the end of the year we'll have Ed making his way to #2 between his other 2 albums with '=', then Adele blasting straight to #1 with '30'. |
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21st October 2021, 12:41 AM
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#62
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 BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 20 August 2021
Posts: 1,368 User: 135,527
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Oct 20 2021, 11:44 PM) Is there a debate to be had about changing the way album sales are counted in the streaming era. Or would that just be inflating sales? The current system deflates sales by removing the most streamed track, which given in the old days hundreds of thousands would buy albums for that one song kind of explains the deflation in the final figures This post has been edited by chartfridays: 21st October 2021, 12:42 AM |
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21st October 2021, 05:37 AM
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#63
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 November 2015
Posts: 33,299 User: 22,665
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But I actually think that's one of the very very few things the OCC got right
it's the album charts not the single charts, so it has to reflect the album doing well as a whole not 1 song doing well, that should be reflected in the singles chart and it' actually the top 2 songs that are excluded when calculating the average which is based on tracks 3-12 the solution is not including tracks 1 & 2 in the calculations thats already favouring the greatest hits or albums like Mabel that are like a compilation the solution is counting the album streams properly, excluding idiotic counts from playlists (so Mabel would be gone) and counting only when you properly stream the album, and then, giving it more weight... if you look at indie albums many are doing pretty well on streams, especially on week 2, but that doesn't translate into higher album streams cos they don't have songs on playlists... what drives album streams should be proper album streams not playlists like it's happening now |
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21st October 2021, 07:32 AM
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#64
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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Yeh I agree if you counted the main single it would be like single sales as a lot will listen to the the single only!
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21st October 2021, 12:09 PM
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#65
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 18 January 2021
Posts: 1,789 User: 122,015
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I went for 350-400. I think she can do more than Ed, but the sales for albums are so low these days that I think she'll struggle to get anywhere near what she's managed before.
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21st October 2021, 01:31 PM
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#66
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 January 2021
Posts: 7,069 User: 122,344
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I think 30 will shoot straight to the top of that list of the Top 5 weekly streams for albums and possibly by a significant margin tbh. As someone else put it in another thread, the evidence so far is she has successfully made the transition from download to streaming era while maintaining her insane level of appeal. That sounds like the backdrop for a record breaker to me.
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21st October 2021, 05:52 PM
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#67
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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I wonder if both Ed and Adele will be like Coldplay with big preorder and then slow streams added?
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21st October 2021, 06:14 PM
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#68
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 31 October 2018
Posts: 752 User: 78,351
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QUOTE(CJK @ Oct 21 2021, 05:09 AM) I went for 350-400. I think she can do more than Ed, but the sales for albums are so low these days that I think she'll struggle to get anywhere near what she's managed before. Plus, about 6 wks between album and single release.... the so-called pent up demand for an Adele record and the never ending promo may wane by the time the album is out. I'm not saying it won't be a huge seller, I just think we're overestimating its sales. |
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21st October 2021, 06:20 PM
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#69
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 is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,097 User: 8,300
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Oct 21 2021, 06:52 PM) I wonder if both Ed and Adele will be like Coldplay with big preorder and then slow streams added? Like Coldplay and like 99% of all other albums which have a physical release... 
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21st October 2021, 06:21 PM
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#70
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 16 January 2019
Posts: 4,817 User: 82,234
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Oct 21 2021, 02:52 PM) I wonder if both Ed and Adele will be like Coldplay with big preorder and then slow streams added? Adele and Ed are much bigger than Coldplay in streaming, this band still opens with impressive sales because of their solid UK fan base. |
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21st October 2021, 09:47 PM
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#71
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Bré @ Oct 21 2021, 07:20 PM) Like Coldplay and like 99% of all other albums which have a physical release... So will there be a huge slump in the second week? |
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21st October 2021, 09:59 PM
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#72
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,097 User: 8,300
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Oct 21 2021, 10:47 PM) So will there be a huge slump in the second week? ...like 99% of all other albums, yes 
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21st October 2021, 10:03 PM
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#73
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 3 February 2018
Posts: 2,041 User: 64,815
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750k, babes, 750k
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21st October 2021, 10:17 PM
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#74
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 January 2021
Posts: 7,069 User: 122,344
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Oct 21 2021, 10:47 PM) So will there be a huge slump in the second week? Almost certainly but if you're starting off on an insane high as 30 will be then the second week slump will still produce a figure that is high compared to the rest of the market. |
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21st October 2021, 11:37 PM
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#75
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Bré @ Oct 21 2021, 10:59 PM) ...like 99% of all other albums, yes I’m really just interested to see where they fall to and what sales will be like post week 1 on the road up to Christmas. I also want to see if I can get Bre to elaborate on his answers 😜 |
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25th October 2021, 04:33 PM
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#76
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 BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 13 June 2011
Posts: 19,830 User: 14,043
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5/6 Adele To Have Over 125,000 First Week UK Album Sales
Odds being offered. I'm so tempted 
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15th November 2021, 12:14 AM
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#77
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 30 November 2017
Posts: 100 User: 50,557
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I'll probably look stupid in 2 weeks but I can see her getting 400k plus she is a massive album seller but also can be a streaming giant which ABBA couldn't manage
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15th November 2021, 12:21 AM
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#78
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 2 May 2021
Posts: 1,045 User: 129,076
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ABBA had multiple formats though. I've voted 200,000 - 250,000
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15th November 2021, 03:21 AM
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#79
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 27 May 2009
Posts: 366 User: 8,915
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QUOTE(Yousee @ Nov 14 2021, 10:21 PM) ABBA had multiple formats though. I've voted 200,000 - 250,000 lol guys, are you for real? I am going for 450k+ |
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15th November 2021, 06:41 AM
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#80
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 7 January 2009
Posts: 7,064 User: 8,073
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10k. x
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