  |
 UK Local Elections 2023, 4th May 2022 (Engerland)/18th May 2023 (Norn Iron) |
| Track this thread | Email this thread | Print this thread | Download this thread | Subscribe to this forum |
 23rd February 2023, 07:08 PM
Post
#1
|
|
 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,801 User: 10,455 
     |
Sounding the alarm bell that it is now 10 weeks until the Local Elections take place in England on 4th May 2022. It is also 12 weeks until the Local Elections In Northern Ireland on 18th May - these were delayed by 2 weeks so the counting didn't clash with the coronation of King Charles on 6th. I'm presuming the reason why it was delayed in NI but not in England is because Northern Irish local elections use Proportional Representation therefore take longer to count, whilst English local elections use the simpler & easier to count First Past The Post system.
If you are in England, depending on what area you are in you may not be required to vote, as not all councils and local authorities will be up for election, and even within some local authorities not all seats will be up for election. As a starting point, you can check here for a basic overview to see if you are likely to be able to vote in May. One important note for those in England - this will be the first election where you will need to be required to show ID at the polling station. Usual forms of ID such as passports & Drivers' Licences will be accepted, but if you don't have one you can apply for a free Voters Authority Certificate. You can find out more at the Electoral Commission website. In Northern Ireland, all seats across all eleven NI councils will be fought. Unlike in England, voter ID has been in place here for some time (definitely during my adult lifetime), so we are used to it by this stage. Will likely be making my own predictions closer to the time, but interesting questions in England will be how far will the Tories fall in an election where they control many of the district councils, how much of a bounce will Keir Starmer's Labour have, and having won its first new council seat in 3 decades, will the SDP make it a second in Leeds? |
 |
 
|
|
23rd February 2023, 09:31 PM
Post
#2
|
|
 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,834 User: 3,272
       |
I can't stand this time as I am an employee of Brighton & Hove CC. I suspect Labour will win a majority here. The big question is how an Independent group will do. The only councillor elected as an Independent last time has built a very good reputation and has now recruited several other candidates. A number of prominent Tories are not standing again, presumably to avoid the ignominy of losing.
In my old stamping ground of Woking I assume the Lib Dems will make further progress and increase their majority. In another former home, I hope the Tories will get a hammering in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole. Countrywide, it has to be remembered that the Tories did pretty badly four years ago. That means that the number of seats the Tories lose may not seem too bad. We may need to look more closely at the councils they don't control in traditionally Tory areas (Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole is an obvious example) for a better picture. As ever, no conclusions should be drawn from the first few results. |
|
|
|
|
26th February 2023, 07:35 PM
Post
#3
|
|
 BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 14,609 User: 3,002
  |
I'm looking forward to seeing how badly the Tories do across the board; last time these council elections were contested they had a bit of a bump due to the vaccine roll out.
This post has been edited by ElectroBoy: 26th February 2023, 07:36 PM |
|
|
|
|
26th February 2023, 08:51 PM
Post
#4
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,834 User: 3,272
|
QUOTE(ElectroBoy @ Feb 26 2023, 07:35 PM)  I'm looking forward to seeing how badly the Tories do across the board; last time these council elections were contested they had a bit of a bump due to the vaccine roll out. These seats were last contested in 2019 , before we'd heard of Covid. The Tories did pretty badly then so they are already starting from a low base. |
|
|
|
|
26th February 2023, 09:01 PM
Post
#5
|
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 14,609 User: 3,002
|
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 26 2023, 08:51 PM) These seats were last contested in 2019 , before we'd heard of Covid. The Tories did pretty badly then so they are already starting from a low base. Oh  I thought the ones coming up with last contested post Vaccine roll out. Either way they should still get a thrashing - although looking at those sets of results from 2019, the Tories had a fair thrashing then too This post has been edited by ElectroBoy: 26th February 2023, 09:10 PM |
|
|
|
|
13th April 2023, 08:10 PM
Post
#6
|
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,801 User: 10,455
|
The number of candidates from each party taking part in the Local Elections in England on 4th May are (source: Election Maps UK) -
Conservative: 7,512 (93%) Labour: 6,232 (77%) Liberal Democrats: 4,816 (60%) Green: 3,322 (41%) Independents: 1,870 (23%) Locals: 827 (10%) Reform UK: 471 (6%) TUSC: 254 (3%) Heritage Party: 64 (1%) UKIP: 45 (1%) Freedom Alliance: 40 (0%) Yorkshire Party: 38 (0%) SDP: 36 (0%) Lincolnshire Independents: 23 Alliance for Democracy & Freedom: 22 Liberal: 16 Communist Party of Britain: 14 Britain First: 8 British Democrats: 8 Monster Raving Looney: 6 CPA: 6 Women's Equality Party: 6 There's also a spreadsheet if you want to find who is running in a specific location, or see where a particular party is running. The Tories, Labour & Lib Dems are standing in a plurality of seats, and the Greens are standing in a substantial amount as well. The Freedom Alliance are remarkably still going strong, long after their r'aison d'etre has long faded. The only party on the list I wasn't previously familiar with on that list (which tells you how much of a politics nerd I can be) is Alliance for Democracy & Freedom. Although given that they talk about "medical apartheid" on their website, and given their party leader bangs on about experimental vaccinations (despite being a medical doctor), you can guess what their orientation is. Outside of whether the Tories will suffer massive losses, I will be keeping a close eye as to the fortunes of the SDP. They won their first new seat in a generation at the local elections in 2022 when they picked up a seat in Leeds, and will be standing candidates in 13 wards in the council this year, including in the one they won in 2022. The nominations for the local elections in Northern Ireland closes on 24th April, and I'll include an update on candidate numbers here once these are confirmed. |
|
|
|
|
13th April 2023, 09:20 PM
Post
#7
|
|
|
BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,741 User: 124,514
|
Surprised Labour only standing for 77% of seats (compared to the tired wayward Conservatives on 93%) if they are going to be the next Government.
|
|
|
|
|
13th April 2023, 09:32 PM
Post
#8
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,834 User: 3,272
|
QUOTE(Smint @ Apr 13 2023, 10:20 PM) Surprised Labour only standing for 77% of seats (compared to the tired wayward Conservatives on 93%) if they are going to be the next Government. All parties are finding it increasingly difficult to get people to stand, even in seats where their chances of success are precisely zero. Unfortunately, people who raise their heads above the parapet to identify themselves with a particular party are increasingly likely to face hostility. |
|
|
|
|
14th April 2023, 12:55 AM
Post
#9
|
|
|
BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,741 User: 124,514
|
Sadly I can well believe that.
|
|
|
|
|
14th April 2023, 05:12 PM
Post
#10
|
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,801 User: 10,455
|
I also believe that in some councils there are non-compete agreements between Labour and the Lib Dems and the Lib Dem/Greens to maximise their chances of beating the Tory in their constituency.
|
|
|
|
|
14th April 2023, 08:14 PM
Post
#11
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,834 User: 3,272
|
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 14 2023, 06:12 PM) I also believe that in some councils there are non-compete agreements between Labour and the Lib Dems and the Lib Dem/Greens to maximise their chances of beating the Tory in their constituency. All parties have limited resources. That means they will concentrate on wards where they think they have a chance of winning. I would guess that they will all want to put up as many candidates as possible but, in some cases, handing in the nomination papers will be the last part of their "campaign" in that ward. |
|
|
|
|
29th April 2023, 09:04 AM
Post
#12
|
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,801 User: 10,455
|
The number of candidates each party are running in the Northern Ireland elections on May 18th are as follows -
Sinn Féin: 162 DUP: 152 Alliance: 110 UUP: 101 SDLP: 86 TUV: 46 Greens: 37 Aontú: 19 PBP: 16 Workers Party: 7 Conservatives: 5 PUP: 4 Cross-Community Labour Alternative: 2 IRSP: 2 Socialist Party: 2 Independents: 56 My early predictions are that Sinn Fein will be the largest party of local government following the elections, the DUP will treat water with a similar number of seats or marginal losses, Alliance will surge, and both UUP and SDLP will suffer catastrophic losses (with the latter having one of the notable local government stories in the run up to the election when Paul McCusker, one of their most popular Belfast councilor with such a strong personal vote that he polled more than 2 quotas the last time the elections were held,left the party acrimoniously and is now running as an independent this time around). Of the smaller parties, I expect the Greens to continue to lose ground, the same with the Trotskyite PBP. the TUV should gain a few seats at DUP/UUPs expense, whilst Aontú will likely double the seats they gained last time. It'll also be the first election where I will be actively cheering for a particular unionist candidate to make their way over the line come May 18th. |
|
|
|
|
30th April 2023, 09:05 AM
Post
#13
|
|
|
Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,584 User: 5,138
 |
Why you cheering that?
Why did McCusker leave the SDLP? Too right wing for them? |
|
|
|
|
30th April 2023, 09:22 AM
Post
#14
|
|
 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,587 User: 12,929            |
I do think this'll be a good round of elections for Tory spin, they did so abysmally in 2019 last time that there might not be much further to fall. They might even gain.
Labour should also gain but they were hammered comparatively less in 2019 (remember, May 2019) and lots of these councils are not city ones (another reason why Labour might be standing for less than all of them as mentioned above) - therefore well-placed to show results outside of what pure polls would expect. Starmer has 400 seats gained as a good number and I'd agree with him there. |
|
|
|
|
4th May 2023, 08:39 AM
Post
#15
|
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 14,609 User: 3,002
|
Be interesting to see the results as they come through.
Just voted; i'm basically in the Tory/ Lib Dem area - predominantly Tory - but the council flipped to Lib Dem when these council seats were last contested. |
|
|
|
|
4th May 2023, 06:54 PM
Post
#16
|
|
|
BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,741 User: 124,514
|
I don't get a vote as in London but hope Tories do atrociously obviously. I had a discussion with a good friend who we broadly have very similar views politically. He refuses to vote Labour point blank under Starmer as leader as doesn't trust him (rightly) and think he's too right wing (correct) Luckily he lives in an ultra safe Labour seat like I do so his vote won't matter but I still think that this evil Tory government have to be taken out of ALL costs - a decent PM would be a 'nice to have'. Just hope his views aren't copied too much in the General Election.
|
|
|
|
|
4th May 2023, 07:01 PM
Post
#17
|
|
|
IncredibleSquirrel
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 25,872 User: 118
    |
I cast my postal vote on Tuesday, the least enthused I've ever voted in something. Got a reasonable amount of material through from the two main parties. A lot said about potholes despite voting for councillors on a ward in a district council (no responsibility for roads). The state of the roads in both the County (Conservative run) and neighbouring City (Labour run) is equally abysmal anyway.
|
|
|
|
|
4th May 2023, 07:08 PM
Post
#18
|
|
 The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,315 User: 9,232
     |
My new place is having an election, however, I couldn't vote as I've moved house only recently and couldn't register in time as the deadline had passed by the time I'd moved. Tories had most control where I am now in 2019 so a dent in that would be nice x
|
|
|
|
|
4th May 2023, 08:28 PM
Post
#19
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,834 User: 3,272
|
Reports I'm getting from people involved reinforce my view that Labour will win a majority in Brighton & Hove. While the Lib Dems will probably not win any seats they may get decent results in some wards.
|
|
|
|
|
4th May 2023, 08:39 PM
Post
#20
|
|
|
BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,741 User: 124,514
|
My dad is standing as a Tory councillor in Surrey (
 ) - as a paper candidate as not expected to be elected in his ward. Weirdly we get on vast majority of the time. I hope he does lose though as he's not in the best health anyway so wouldn't be suitable to do so. |
|
|
|
|
| Time is now: 13th June 2024, 02:38 PM |
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 BuzzJack.com
About | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service
