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 2024 United States Presidential Election Thread, Four More Seasons of Total Landscaping |
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 2nd January 2024, 01:43 PM
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#1
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561 
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It is a leap year, and you know what that means*
Yes- that's right. It is election year in America, with the vote due to be held on Tuesday 5 November 2024. Primaries and Caucuses commence very soon, with Iowa and New Hampshire expected later this month - please use this thread for any discussion and debate here. I think this could become another historic thread like the 2020 one with potentially the first rematch since 1956, along with some firsts like the probable Republican candidate facing multiple indictments! *excluding 1800 and 1900 because years ending with '00' aren't unless they are also divisible by 400. |
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2nd January 2024, 01:50 PM
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#2
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,094 User: 8,300
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I'm gonna try my best to tune out of this more this time around honestly. I overdosed on doom too much in 2016 and especially 2020. (Also the primaries seem pretty boring anyway since a solid majority of Republicans are apparently ride or die for Orange Man). Back to doom in a few months!
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2nd January 2024, 04:36 PM
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,108 User: 18,639
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We all know Trump will win anyway. Just tune it out.
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2nd January 2024, 05:04 PM
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#4
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,552 User: 20,053
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Trump to pull a Grover Cleveland!
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2nd January 2024, 05:33 PM
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929        |
I am feeling marginally less excited about the whole primary season with a rematch looking likely, but I'll only start to accept it once results come in and actually yes a majority of registered voters want a geriatric rematch. It does seem from vibes like that prospect is historically unpopular among large parts of both bases, but there's just no one in the gap.
Also RIP to FiveThirtyEight being a good source of info for the current state of the polls, it still exists but its excellent website has been gutted by being inexplicably moved to a subsection of ABC, and Nate Silver is no longer a part of it. With that in mind, the field is a whole lot more defined than it was in 2020 so I think I can get away with a relatively short post summing up where we're at with the Republican Iowa caucus amazingly less than 2 weeks away... Democratic Primaries Mostly a foregone conclusion of current president Joe Biden getting the nomination but Marianne Williamson is running a small primary challenge to him, you might remember her by her other name, ~Orb Mommy~. And some other guy but I don't remember his name, ed: it's Dean Phillips, a no-name MN rep. Probably 80%+ of all primary votes will go Biden so there's not even much to talk about there but Williamson could act as a sponge for dissatisfaction with Biden from the Democratic base, particularly any part that is left-wing/progressive/pro-Palestine/anti-system etc. Democratic Iowans are voting all mail-in with results on March 12 so the first contest for them is New Hampshire on Jan 23rd. Republican Primaries Nearly as pointless but there are still 6 major candidates left in the race and one of the 5 who aren't Donald Trump, polling at roughly 50-58%, could spend the next months emerging as the one to beat with the backing of the party's beleaguered """traditional Republicans""" (they're all fascists at this point, this is barely an exaggeration). Trump would not go in as the favourite against Biden I don't think but obviously he'd run it close and it would be another fraught campaign similar to 2020, so yeah, let's not have that please. Nikki Haley seems the most promising for Republicans who actually want to beat Biden, she's a bit more moderate than the other candidates, attacks Biden incredibly strongly in his weak areas and is the only one of this crowd I think Biden would go in to the general as an underdog with. She's tying with Ron DeSantis for polling about 15%, and while DeSantis was touted as a contender before now he hasn't shown much of a fight on the campaign trail yet and just seems like a fundamentally unappealing guy even for fascists, they normally need at least a bit of spice and feeling from their leaders, not empty suits. Vivek Ramaswamy certainly has more charisma, but he makes Trump's dictator-like tendencies look sane - fortunately I think he'll only be a major factor in the race if Trump is removed from contention by legal or mortal means. Meanwhile, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson have, uh, survived. Neither will win. Iowa's on January 15th, and that'll be probably the most interesting one of this race. Caucus, so potential weirdness anyway, Republican evangelicals are a huge factor in Iowa caucuses, so it remains to be seen which morally greasy candidate they're abandoning their "Christian" "principles" to back (probably still Trump). New Hampshire is on Jan 23rd. Apparently there's also a legal challenge that may affect the NH date but I don't know how much of that is just an old note on Wiki. Legal challenges still coming, Trump's off Colorado and Maine on the ballot for now, potentially more to come, and that'll probably affect how the primaries shake out a little. Really depends how far it goes and at what point SCOTUS steps in and with what ruling. Others Greens, Libertarians, etc etc, not relevant. Only major concern is Robert F Kennedy, formerly a Democratic primary challenge, switched to independent once he realised he was attracting more Republican voters (because he's insane and anti-vax). Once he opens his mouth he will be disqualified as a serious candidate, I don't mean that unkindly but people with such a bad medical condition affecting their public presentation cannot succeed in this sort of race. He might pick up a decent number of voters if he stays the course, god willing from those who would otherwise vote Republican. |
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2nd January 2024, 05:36 PM
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#6
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929 |
As for issues, expect the economy (which is doing well thanks to Biden but people don't think is doing well thanks to Biden, a symptom of incredibly polarised information sources) to be the main one.
Foreign policy seems like a huge one particularly among younger voters who seem to be expecting their government to be taking a much more principled stand than they are currently on Israel/Palestine (i.e. pushing for a ceasefire and being less friendly to Israel's hostile government). Could also be big on the Republican side with regards aid to Ukraine/Israel, while Republican evangelicals will support aid to Israel Republican voters as a whole are much more isolationist and have been particularly gnarly about aid to Ukraine - which is partly why Ukraine's slipping a bit in the war sadly. Democracy will probably be the other main one, but that's all tied up with legal challenges and Trump's relatively overt references to installing himself as dictator-for-life, so, you know, pretty clear-cut there. |
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2nd January 2024, 08:39 PM
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,094 User: 8,300
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Nate Silver has his own website now, but yes it's a shame what's happened to FiveThirtyEight (although that will help me to pay less attention).
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2nd January 2024, 10:43 PM
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#8
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
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Great write ups. Nikki Haley does come over as a good communicator and refreshing to see a woman do well in the Republican base but her rhetoric against immigrants, Palestinians, trans people etc etc is hideous and she is just as much a danger as all the other ones. Her recent denial of slavery being a factor in the US Civil War was pretty low.
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2nd January 2024, 10:58 PM
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#9
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
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Anyway the system that is used to elect the Democratic and Republican nominees in the most convoluted, complicated BONKERS system ever. What with caucuses, primaries, some states having delegates proportionally and some being winner takes all, plus the infamous superdelegates. And that's just selecting the candidates - the actual election makes the UK's FPTP be a beacon of fairness - still ridiculous that Hillary Clinton can get more than 3 million votes more than Trump and not be president in 2016.
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16th January 2024, 08:25 AM
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#10
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929 |
as expected, a blowout in Iowa for Trump, neither Haley or DeSantis did good enough to expect that anything interesting will happen this primary season aside from maybe Haley running Trump a little close in New Hampshire. geriatric rematch as inevitable as ever
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16th January 2024, 02:57 PM
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
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To be fair, all 3 are absolutely awful (especially the way they attack the LGBTQ community) but Trump really is another level of scary, especially the hold he has over a significant chunk of the US. And Biden's many accomplishments are not getting noticed and his position on the middle East will put a lot of left wingers off.
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16th January 2024, 03:34 PM
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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Some of the things Americans sincerely believe to be true absolutely f***ing terrify me. It’s absolute brainwashing cult levels of insanity and head in the sand ignorance. Like how many people genuinely believe that trump won in 2020 even tho there isn’t a single atom of evidence and they just go off a tantrum of a wannabe dictator unable to process the fact that someone told him no for the first time
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16th January 2024, 05:43 PM
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#13
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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On that note:
"God looked down on his planned paradise and said, 'I need a caretaker,'" a voiceover intones over a minimalist piano track. "So God gave us Trump." It's shocking that 70%, at least, of Republicans belueve that thr election was "stolen"!!! Especially after Hillary won thr public vote via 3 million votes the first time. The Repubs then say abput that, thoufh, that they were "dead", or non-documented sometimes, voters stuffing the ballots in Cali!! Total delusion. |
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16th January 2024, 07:05 PM
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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I hear it was minus 25 in Iowa on polling day!!
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16th January 2024, 08:03 PM
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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9pm ITV1. Trump. Can he really win again? "As Trump enters what he calls his 'final battle', ahead in polls and betting, can he really win the Presidency again?" Robert Moore reports.
This is quite a good read. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/5050/trump...ntial-election/ This post has been edited by crazy chris: 16th January 2024, 08:43 PM |
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16th January 2024, 08:37 PM
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#16
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(Anita Hanjaab @ Jan 16 2024, 05:43 PM)  On that note: "God looked down on his planned paradise and said, 'I need a caretaker,'" a voiceover intones over a minimalist piano track. "So God gave us Trump." It's shocking that 70%, at least, of Republicans belueve that thr election was "stolen"!!! Especially after Hillary won thr public vote via 3 million votes the first time. The Repubs then say abput that, thoufh, that they were "dead", or non-documented sometimes, voters stuffing the ballots in Cali!! Total delusion. I quite enjoy pointing out parallels between Trump and the biblical antichrist, of which there are many. The polls from Iowa do show a lot of people still stuck in their ways but obviously very low turnout due to the weather and the foregone conclusion of the contest, so way too early to making final calls. embarrassing for DeSantis though, he went all around Iowa talking himself up and barely squeaked into second. One good thing that will come of this is that HIS political career is done with, no way are donors going to blow that kind of cash on him again. |
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16th January 2024, 09:24 PM
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 WELCOME TO UTOPIA
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 17 June 2022 Posts: 3,970 User: 153,406
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Idk much about politics, but i'll have a go at articulating my feelings on this (excuse me for being quite repetitive by recycling a lot of this post from other posts in this thread lol)
It would be pretty horrific if Trump was re-elected as president but It does look as though he is cruising his way to the nomination sadly (and as expected), one step closer to a lunatic controlling one of the world's biggest powers once again (a really horrifying thought)  As per usual, there isn't really any other half-decent Republicans running at all (obviously I would prefer either De Santis or Haley to Trump but both of them are still horrible people with some incredibly disgusting views). Interesting to see that Haley's popularity is quickly rising in New Hampshire, I'm guessing a Trump loss there could cause a bit of a blow for him?I'm just hoping that somehow the Democrats can pull this election back, which I think will be hard with Joe Biden as a candidate due to his lack of popularity (he has done quite well with the U.S. economy but some of his actions such as pushing for funding Israel's genocide in Gaza aren't right - not sure if the latter will have impacted on his popularity tbh). Anyway, It looks like dark, scary days may be ahead of the United States sadly.. |
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16th January 2024, 10:06 PM
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#18
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(Y @ Jan 16 2024, 09:24 PM) Idk much about politics, but i'll have a go at articulating my feelings on this (excuse me for being quite repetitive by recycling a lot of this post from other posts in this thread lol) It would be pretty horrific if Trump was re-elected as president but It does look as though he is cruising his way to the nomination sadly (and as expected), one step closer to a lunatic controlling one of the world's biggest powers once again (a really horrifying thought) As per usual, there isn't really any other half-decent Republicans running at all (obviously I would prefer either De Santis or Haley to Trump but both of them are still horrible people with some incredibly disgusting views). Interesting to see that Haley's popularity is quickly rising in New Hampshire, I'm guessing a Trump loss there could cause a bit of a blow for him?Yes and no, Trump obviously wants to win all 50 states, but it's doubtful that Haley winning there will be anything more than a temporary stumbling block on these numbers. Even if she does wrest it from him somehow, it'll probably prolong the race a little bit but with Trump winning most of the rest of the states 60 to her 30, she doesn't stand a chance at getting a nomination even with winning it as things stand. If she loses New Hampshire and I think the consensus is still that that's happening, we might as well wrap it up months early, but even her winning it wouldn't do much on current numbers unless some really big money starts changing hands. Haley's bad, but more generically bad Republican. I'd take her over the others though (if that result wouldn't make it more likely the Democrats lose), DeSantis and Trump clearly don't believe in improving the societies they want to lead, they just want power, Haley does, just her beliefs about making it that way are horrendous. That's also why I think she'd easily beat Biden, she can make a pitch to independents who wouldn't fear her as much. QUOTE I'm just hoping that somehow the Democrats can pull this election back, which I think will be hard with Joe Biden as a candidate due to his lack of popularity (he has done quite well with the U.S. economy but some of his actions such as pushing for funding Israel's genocide in Gaza aren't right - not sure if the latter will have impacted on his popularity tbh). Anyway, It looks like dark, scary days may be ahead of the United States sadly.. Biden's unfavourables are bad and Israel/Gaza is proving to be a more thorny issue than I'm sure his administration hoped, but I can't really tell until some of the Democratic primaries have been done with. I still think the Democrats go into the election as favourites if the Republican isn't Haley though, Trump is just too much of a known quantity and we know people vote against him. Good go at posting though, I always like seeing more people post in here, and it's not much of a debate club anymore (though if I try don't take it personally x), just a place to talk about the state of the world, such as it is, so no need to be scared. |
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16th January 2024, 10:16 PM
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,108 User: 18,639
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It's just awful. Trump will destroy democracy, and he has already politicised and destroyed the SC!! Biden is just too weak to rectify it.
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16th January 2024, 11:17 PM
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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QUOTE(Silas @ Jan 16 2024, 03:34 PM) Some of the things Americans sincerely believe to be true absolutely f***ing terrify me. It’s absolute brainwashing cult levels of insanity and head in the sand ignorance. Like how many people genuinely believe that trump won in 2020 even tho there isn’t a single atom of evidence and they just go off a tantrum of a wannabe dictator unable to process the fact that someone told him no for the first time 100%. The stolen votes is a particularly ludicrous example of the phenomena of objectively wrong information being believed as fact but also see the non acknowledgement of Palestinian casualties, the people who go on about a "climate scam", the anti vaxxers, idea that owning firearms makes society safer etc etc The thought was that in the information era that people would wise up but instead it seems that outlandish and very dangerous propaganda becomes "fact" and technology is used to promote it - and this year we'll see lots of fake AI content and propaganda. The biggest problem is the promotion of this crap is paid/aided for by wealthiest in society like Elon Musk, oil companies, dodgy media moguls. And with wealth being more and more uneven then this can only grow. |
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