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> UK By-election Thread, 2017-2018
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Doctor Blind
post Jul 27 2019, 07:23 PM
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Another By-election confirmed for Sheffield Hallam as Jared O'Mara decides to stand down.

Should be a comfortable win back by the Liberal Democrats who held the seat between 1997 and 2017, 10 years of which were under Facebook apologist Nick "I'm sorry" Clegg.
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Harve
post Jul 31 2019, 09:50 PM
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QUOTE(Harve @ Jun 21 2019, 07:40 PM) *
Brecon's European Parliament vote in May:

BXP: 30.7%
LD: 23.4%
PC: 20.4%
CON: 7.9%
GRN: 6.9%
LAB: 6.0%
UKIP: 2.7%
CUK: 1.7%

I predict:

LD: 44%
CON: 41%
BXP: 8%
LAB: 6%
UKIP: 1%
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Botchia
post Jul 31 2019, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jul 27 2019, 08:23 PM) *
Another By-election confirmed for Sheffield Hallam as Jared O'Mara decides to stand down.


Oh wait how did I only see this news.

It's about time!!
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Botchia
post Jul 31 2019, 09:57 PM
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QUOTE(Harve @ Jul 31 2019, 10:50 PM) *
I predict:

LD: 44%
CON: 41%
BXP: 8%
LAB: 6%
UKIP: 1%


I just don't see the Tories that high even with the Boris bounce right now!

I bet I end up being wrong but I just don't see it laugh.gif
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Harve
post Jul 31 2019, 11:57 PM
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QUOTE(Botchia @ Jul 31 2019, 10:57 PM) *
I just don't see the Tories that high even with the Boris bounce right now!

I bet I end up being wrong but I just don't see it laugh.gif

I'm not too sure either. It's just that the incumbent MP seems to have a pretty strong personal vote, and him gaining a criminal record only seems to have created a victim mentality and bolstered that?!

I'm also seeing a ceiling for the Lib Dems and I'm not sure where it is. A 44% vote would mean a very, very large proportion of Brecon's Remain voters would approve tacitly or explicitly of the hardline 'Bollocks to Brexit' Lib Dem stance, when we know nationally that it's not quite as high as that. Even adjusting for Remain voters being more likely to vote in lower-turnout elections than 2016's ref.
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vidcapper
post Aug 2 2019, 04:41 AM
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It was *asking* for trouble, allowing Chris Davies to stand again for the Tories! rolleyes.gif
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Harve
post Aug 2 2019, 06:50 AM
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QUOTE(Harve @ Jul 31 2019, 10:50 PM) *
I predict:

LD: 44%
CON: 41%
BXP: 8%
LAB: 6%
UKIP: 1%




Not bad tbh.
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Trump2020
post Aug 2 2019, 08:46 AM
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Well done to the Lib-Dems. Boris now has a majority of just one which will disappear if the Lib-Dems take Sheffield Hallam or Labour by a miracle hold it.
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Rooney
post Aug 2 2019, 12:10 PM
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Now if Labour could join the Remain alliance things would get very interesting and No Deal certainly wouldn’t happen. The Tories must be confident of going in to a General Election and trying to hoover up The Brexit Party vote, but I wonder by doing that they will also turn off lots of swing voters as well.

But basically I just don’t see how this government holds up. The unfortunate thing is Corbyn is the key and he’s a plonker.
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vidcapper
post Aug 2 2019, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 2 2019, 09:46 AM) *
Well done to the Lib-Dems. Boris now has a majority of just one which will disappear if the Lib-Dems take Sheffield Hallam or Labour by a miracle hold it.


But the Tories didn't hold Sheffield Hallam in the first place, so not winning a by-election there could not lose them a seat. huh.gif
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Harve
post Aug 2 2019, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 2 2019, 03:02 PM) *
But the Tories didn't hold Sheffield Hallam in the first place, so not winning a by-election there could not lose them a seat. huh.gif

The seat will be most likely be vacant in September, so while it doesn't count for the Tories, it doesn't count against them, either.

When Chris Davies was removed from office in June, reducing the Tories' majority by one. It fell by one once again when Jane Dodds won this morning, meaning a loss of two overall.
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Suedehead2
post Aug 2 2019, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 2 2019, 03:02 PM) *
But the Tories didn't hold Sheffield Hallam in the first place, so not winning a by-election there could not lose them a seat. huh.gif

Indeed. Jared O’Mara has rarely attended parliament, but I think he is still included in the overall figures (unlike Sinn Fein, the Peaker and his deputies). In addition, Charlie Elphicke, suspended from the Tory party after being charged with sexual assault, is included in the opposition figures although he would be expected to vote with the government.

OTOH, one named Tory MP, Philip Lee, is said to be considering joining the Lib Dems.
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Rooney
post Aug 2 2019, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 2 2019, 03:53 PM) *
Indeed. Jared O’Mara has rarely attended parliament, but I think he is still included in the overall figures (unlike Sinn Fein, the Peaker and his deputies). In addition, Charlie Elphicke, suspended from the Tory party after being charged with sexual assault, is included in the opposition figures although he would be expected to vote with the government.

OTOH, one named Tory MP, Philip Lee, is said to be considering joining the Lib Dems.


There's also rumblings a lot of the Cameron based MPs that are fairly new MPs are slightly uninspired by the current direction to the far-right the party is going so a lot of them could either jump ship or make things difficult.

Basically we're no closer to where we were under May and if anything I think things are going to get worse from here. Especially when there are so many massive bellends in Cabinet now saying "No Deal will be fine" when turn the clock back 6 months they were dead against it. Hopefully these people who stand to make millikns betting against the £ lose loads of money instead the corrupt bellwhiffs.
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Harve
post Aug 6 2019, 07:47 AM
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The next by-election will be on 29th August in Shetland for a Holyrood seat. It's an interesting constituency but also rather unique, so the result sadly won't tell us much about the situation in the rest of the UK, or even much about the rest of Scotland, but it will tell us a bit about how the Lib Dems and the SNP are competing, which could have implications for the four marginal LD-SNP seats, including that of their new leader, Jo Swinson. Botchia shaking. x

It's very much fortress Lib Dem here: the safest Lib Dem seat in Westminster, held for nearly 70 years (this seat is shared with Orkney, but they're more-or-less on the same page politically). The last Holyrood election saw departing MSP, Tavish Scott, getting a mammoth 67% of the vote. The measly 23% of the vote that the SNP won in 2016 is actually the best that any other party has obtained in a Holyrood election there! It is also one of the most unionist parts of Scotland, with just 36% voting in favour of independence in 2014.

My favourite fact is that the Tory vote has fallen at every single Westminster election since 1983, which I don't think is the case in any other seat. This is even when there were very, very decent swings to the Tories in much of England in 2005, 2010 and 2015, and not even Ruth's successful Scottish campaign for the Ruth Davidson party in 2017 could get them over the 10% mark. You hate to see this sort of thing.

Last Holyrood election result (constituency vote), 2016:
LD: 67%
SNP: 23%
Labour: 6%
Conservatives: 4%

Latest election result, European parliament in May:
LD: 29%
SNP: 26%
BXP: 20%*
Green: 11%
CON: 5%
LAB: 4.5%
UKIP: 2%
CUK: 1%*

* Not standing in this election. Yes, Farage's party seem to have already given up on Scotland.

I don't know anything about the candidates because I just like the numbers, but know that there are four independents standing amongst the usual suspects, which could definitely throw a spanner in the works as island politics is very much dominated by independents at a council level.


This post has been edited by Harve: Aug 6 2019, 07:48 AM
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Aug 6 2019, 04:08 PM
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Coming 3% behind at the Euros was on of the most shocking results of the night. I had expected the LD to absolutely sail away with this seat.

The LD result shouldn’t dent much at all, even without the really popular previous candidate. Honestly don’t expect us to really crack 25% here. I’m not gonna even talk about “what if” because it just won’t happen.

Holyrood needs to chuck all three outlying island groups some greater autonomy and just leave them be. They’ll be alright. Plus the only way to convince them that Independence doesn’t mean centralising power in Edinburgh rather than London is to do a far larger wholesale shift of power north pre-IndyRef2
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Aug 6 2019, 04:10 PM
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Also notable that they’ve so far not mentioned Brexit up there. Interesting given that 20% vote for Farage came from somewhere and the LD was the only % to fall 👀
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Harve
post Aug 6 2019, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Aug 6 2019, 05:10 PM) *
Also notable that they’ve so far not mentioned Brexit up there. Interesting given that 20% vote for Farage came from somewhere and the LD was the only % to fall 👀

I mean, only 27% of the vote went to Brexit-supporting parties, far below their Leave vote of 44%, which was above the Scotland average. And the turnout at the Euros was far lower

But yes, like other longstanding Lib Dem strongholds that didn't have a decisive referendum result, such as North Norfolk and Westmorland, their coalition of voters will inevitably include Leave voters.

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Aug 6 2019, 05:08 PM) *
Honestly don’t expect us to really crack 25% here.


I will be bold and go for 26%. x

LD: 45%
SNP: 26%
INDS x4: 12%
CON: 8%
GRN: 5%
LAB: 3%
UKIP: 1%

My guesses are probably more accurate than my BJSC predictions so I will keep doing these like.
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