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 OPINION POLLS 2019-2024, This thread is 'oven-ready' for the latest polls. |
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 Dec 31 2020, 09:12 PM
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#301
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561 
   
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 The Conservatives were polling 26 points ahead of Labour in late March/early April. That lead has now completely gone but the support for the Conservatives looks pretty solidly at ~40%. Next year (which starts tomorrow!  ) we have the (delayed) local elections, the Scottish Parliament election, and the (also delayed) London mayoral election.Fun! |
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Jan 1 2021, 03:03 PM
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#302
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 BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,545 User: 10,030
 
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It'll be interesting to see how things go now that Brexit is "done". I feel we could see a decent labour lead by the end of the year.
This post has been edited by Envoirment: Jan 1 2021, 03:04 PM |
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Jan 1 2021, 03:11 PM
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#303
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jan 1 2021, 03:03 PM)  It'll be interesting to see how things go now that Brexit is "done". I feel we could see a decent labour lead by the end of the year. No I believe the Tories will be bouncing back. Brexit done and a whole new bright future ahead. Covid soon under control with vaccines. Good Tory lead in a year's time. |
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Jan 2 2021, 12:10 PM
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#304
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 1 June 2013
Posts: 527 User: 19,091
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QUOTE(common sense @ Jan 1 2021, 03:11 PM) No I believe the Tories will be bouncing back. Brexit done and a whole new bright future ahead. Covid soon under control with vaccines. Good Tory lead in a year's time. 
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Jan 2 2021, 02:39 PM
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#305
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 I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753
   
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QUOTE(common sense @ Jan 1 2021, 03:11 PM) No I believe the Tories will be bouncing back. Brexit done and a whole new bright future ahead. Covid soon under control with vaccines. Good Tory lead in a year's time. Meanwhile in the real world, there will be Brexit implementation disruption, Covid will remain rampant until at least June 2021, a surge in unemployment from this summer as furlough ends and sadly an Autumn 2021 budget/spending review with the return of austerity because it's the Tories. |
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Jan 2 2021, 03:12 PM
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#306
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,597 User: 88
     
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The Tories will still have a lead for a while, but the problem I suspect will come for the Tories in 2-3 years time once the cost and enquiry of the pandemic comes out in to the public eyes. I suspect Johnson will possibly be gone by then, but Labour will focus on winning back the north and the next election will not be based on an idelogy like the last one was. Once the vaccine is administered, I suspect for a few months or possibly even the whole of 2021 they will be running off the bounce of relative normality having an effect in the polls.
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Jan 4 2021, 04:05 PM
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#307
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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Big story here is not the Tories 6pt Brexit bounce but the Lib Dems polling at FOUR percent - lowest in any poll since April 1990. Greens now the official 3rd biggest party in the UK, and growing!
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Jan 4 2021, 04:15 PM
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#308
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
   
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 4 2021, 05:05 PM) Big story here is not the Tories 6pt Brexit bounce but the Lib Dems polling at FOUR percent - lowest in any poll since April 1990. Greens now the official 3rd biggest party in the UK, and growing! 4% — wow. They're probably better off becoming a single issue party and focusing on rejoin. Not that it'll get much traction, but neither did UKIP at first. Where else is there for them to go? |
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Jan 4 2021, 04:21 PM
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#309
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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The 2008 financial crisis killed centrism and neoliberalism stone dead. The Lib Dems don't seem to have accepted that, because it's evolve or die time.
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Jan 4 2021, 07:08 PM
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#310
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,034 User: 18,639
    
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 4 2021, 04:21 PM) The 2008 financial crisis killed centrism and neoliberalism stone dead. The Lib Dems don't seem to have accepted that, because it's evolve or die time. The faster the Labour centrists learn this, the better. |
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Jan 4 2021, 07:57 PM
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#311
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
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QUOTE(blacksquare @ Jan 4 2021, 05:15 PM) 4% — wow. They're probably better off becoming a single issue party and focusing on rejoin. Not that it'll get much traction, but neither did UKIP at first. Where else is there for them to go? I'd say the opposite - their numbers likely fell off a cliff because Brexit has now happened and their flagship policy - "no Brexit", ain't going to happen for a long time. They need to find a new flagship, headline grabbing policy that fully sets them apart from Labour/Tories a la tuition fees, anti-Iraq War, if they want any chance of a revival. Rejoining won't be it in my humble, yet sexy, opinion. |
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Jan 4 2021, 07:59 PM
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#312
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(blacksquare @ Jan 4 2021, 04:15 PM) 4% — wow. They're probably better off becoming a single issue party and focusing on rejoin. Not that it'll get much traction, but neither did UKIP at first. Where else is there for them to go? They'd be better off just calling it a day and joining with Labour |
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Jan 4 2021, 09:32 PM
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#313
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
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It's one poll. No conclusions should EVR be drawn from a single opinion poll. As for suggesting that the Lib Dems should call it a day, why should they? Any suggestion that the views of a country the size of England can be split into just two categories is utterly bonkers. The only major democracy with just two parties is the USA and just look at the choice electors have been presented with in many recent elections.
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Jan 5 2021, 10:57 AM
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#314
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 4 2021, 08:57 PM) I'd say the opposite - their numbers likely fell off a cliff because Brexit has now happened and their flagship policy - "no Brexit", ain't going to happen for a long time. They need to find a new flagship, headline grabbing policy that fully sets them apart from Labour/Tories a la tuition fees, anti-Iraq War, if they want any chance of a revival. Rejoining won't be it in my humble, yet sexy, opinion. I don't completely disagree — but my view is more long-term, and not an immediate pivot. At some point the realities of Brexit will become apparent and the FBPE types will become more vocal — Labour certainly aren't going to touch it. So who else? In general, with Starmer leading Labour, I struggle to see them gaining much — especially not with Davey. |
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Jan 8 2021, 09:57 AM
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#315
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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The thing with the liberals is they do far better in other parties so there are liberals in the tories and many many in labour. Plus since 2008 and Brexit especially the dominant ideology has moved the centre to the right and left at the same time so liberals cant fathom moving here as they are stuck like its 2005 forever!!
So 1000 deaths a day and the tories STILL polling 40%? What a country England (southern) is...... |
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Feb 1 2021, 08:50 AM
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#316
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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A Northern Ireland opinion poll made for interesting reading. As a result of the sea border between GB & Northern Ireland, the DUP's support has collapsed to 19%, which is below Sinn Fein who have 24% at the moment, with the non-partisan Alliance Party biting at their heels on 18%. DUP's support has seeped into the TUV, a party formed by Jim Alistair when the DUP went into government with Sinn Fein, and who make the DUP look like People Before Profit in comparison, whose support has exploded from 2% to 10%
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Feb 1 2021, 01:50 PM
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#317
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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So basically the DUP have been made to look like fools by their support of brexit and anyone who’s annoyed by the propaganda about the Irish Sea Border are moving to the TUV while the remain vote still divided between SF/Alliance/SDLP. The media in NI really are bigging up this with constant reports of products we are having a problem getting now and it just feeds into insecurities of certain sections. Mr Nolan I’m talking about you!
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Feb 1 2021, 04:17 PM
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#318
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Feb 1 2021, 01:50 PM) So basically the DUP have been made to look like fools by their support of brexit and anyone who’s annoyed by the propaganda about the Irish Sea Border are moving to the TUV while the remain vote still divided between SF/Alliance/SDLP. The media in NI really are bigging up this with constant reports of products we are having a problem getting now and it just feeds into insecurities of certain sections. Mr Nolan I’m talking about you! I think many Unionists are waking up to the fact that the Conservatives are more than happy to throw them under a bus when it suits their agenda. Bring on the Border Poll. |
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Feb 1 2021, 06:10 PM
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#319
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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I agree and it’s the fault of their political leadership.
But a quick look at history on the island proves that Westminster government have never cared which happens I guess when you have 650 MPs and at least 500 are English that’s understandable. History is important here - this was exactly why Ireland wanted home rule through the 19th century due to the democratic deficit apparent most unbelievably during the famine. But in reality unionism ignores that fact due to the views that they are as British as anyone else on these islands. So it comes down to nationality and ethnicity nearly. The media is a problem too as they generally lean to a unionist mindset as they are set in their ways, similar to in Scotland I guess. So they have been playing up any small issue with the protocol which riles up the working class in communities. I can for see protests not being to much of a leap away from the situation but the working class loyalists base can be very hard to control once you open the e Pandora’s box or the feel their unionism is undermined in some way as could be seen from the flag protests a decade ago. This post has been edited by steve201: Feb 1 2021, 06:11 PM |
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Feb 12 2021, 04:28 PM
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#320
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753
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