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 Who will win the 2020 U.S Presidential election? |
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 27th October 2020, 09:39 PM
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#21
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 21 January 2007
Posts: 23,772 User: 2,666 
        
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and if everything remains the same as in 2016 (blue states, which probably will) that's 232 EC already so technically Biden only needs PA, MI, and WI to put him at 278, which is enough to win so finger crossed.
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27th October 2020, 09:43 PM
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#22
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 is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,071 User: 8,300
              
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QUOTE(Addyablo! @ Oct 27 2020, 09:34 PM)  Gosh you gave me anxiety just reading that cause I can totally see something like that to happen. Like the next president won't be announced until week or two later and have us live in nightmare!!! Sorry!!  Some more reassuring news that I have read, apparently polls of the presidential race at the congressional district level are pointing to even better results for Biden than the state and national polls are - and in 2016 those district level polls were an early indicator that Trump was doing better than the conventional wisdom. So that would seem to point to a very believable possibility that Biden is actually being underpredicted. |
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27th October 2020, 09:47 PM
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#23
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753
 
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I'm quietly optimistic of a Biden win and that we'll finally see off Trump. The polls seem a lot more stable and as Bray has pointed out, I think they're over compensating for Trump this time round than previously if anything. Surely the polls aren't going to be that historically wrong?!
I just hope Biden will win comfortably to avoid the inevitable rigged election chaos that Trump has already instigated. If it's a close result, I dread to think what Trump will incite his supporters to do. |
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27th October 2020, 10:11 PM
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#24
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 Schlagerdrottningen
Joined: 23 August 2010
Posts: 31,877 User: 11,709
   
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I do think Biden will win, my worry is more so for downballot races such as the senate and some state level offices - they will prove just as important over the next decade. If Biden wins but only has 50 senate seats it’ll be a lot harder to pass any bold initiatives, plus with the census and redistricting in 2021 the more states offices Democrats win the less likely things will get this bad again for some time. Plus a total and utter repudiation of Trumpism is the only way to ensure we don’t end up with the same disgusting platform with a “nicer” face in 2024.
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27th October 2020, 10:26 PM
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#25
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,668 User: 3,272
  
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QUOTE(Grim Bréaper @ Oct 27 2020, 09:22 PM) According to FiveThirtyEight's choose your own adventure map, Trump has essentially 0 chance of winning without winning Florida, but Biden is still a 2 to 1 favourite even if Trump does win Florida. Pennsylvania is a lot more concerning (Trump would be a 70% favourite to win if he wins Pennsylvania) - but again that goes back to my point that polls would need to be historically wrong, Biden would still be winning PA even if the polls are exactly as wrong this year as they were in 2016. We're expected to know the result from Florida (and some other states where a Biden win would mean he has a 98+% chance of winning overall) on the night - the panic time comes if he loses all of those states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona being the main ones) because then it'll depend on whether Biden wins in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania which will take longer to be confirmed. (don't know if you can tell I have spent an unhealthy amount of time reading FiveThirtyEight the last few weeks  )Some of us remember 2000 when we had to wait weeks fir the Florida result  If that happens again, let's hope Biden has already won without it.
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27th October 2020, 10:34 PM
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#26
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,150 User: 5,138
 
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QUOTE(Grim Bréaper @ Oct 27 2020, 09:22 PM) According to FiveThirtyEight's choose your own adventure map, Trump has essentially 0 chance of winning without winning Florida, but Biden is still a 2 to 1 favourite even if Trump does win Florida. Pennsylvania is a lot more concerning (Trump would be a 70% favourite to win if he wins Pennsylvania) - but again that goes back to my point that polls would need to be historically wrong, Biden would still be winning PA even if the polls are exactly as wrong this year as they were in 2016. We're expected to know the result from Florida (and some other states where a Biden win would mean he has a 98+% chance of winning overall) on the night - the panic time comes if he loses all of those states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona being the main ones) because then it'll depend on whether Biden wins in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania which will take longer to be confirmed. (don't know if you can tell I have spent an unhealthy amount of time reading FiveThirtyEight the last few weeks )I think it looks like exactly the type of site you would thrive in Bre 😉 |
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27th October 2020, 10:35 PM
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#27
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
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I think a too-close-to-call Florida would still be most likely to happen in an environment where Biden is still winning either way - if it comes down to Pennsylvania though, that could very well be 2000 all over again.
There's the anxiety again. |
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27th October 2020, 10:35 PM
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#28
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 27 2020, 10:34 PM) I think it looks like exactly the type of site you would thrive in Bre 😉 I read 538 a lot too. |
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27th October 2020, 10:45 PM
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#29
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,150 User: 5,138
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The bbc were reporting that from postal votes already done there’s been a 20 fold rise in votes between 18-29 yo compared to 2016 in democrat AND republican seats so you would think that will be good for Biden! |
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27th October 2020, 11:53 PM
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#30
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 April 2015
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Personally I would be very shocked if Donald Trump wins the election, even more so than in 2016. I think they way he's handled the Coronavirus pandemic in particular will really mess it up for him, especially the way he's behaved and the things he's said since he caught it himself. It's possibly the most sensitive area of how emotions of Americans are right now and he's basically made light of it as if it is some sort of joke. It's surely his die hard supporters that will predominately vote for him this time.
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28th October 2020, 01:05 AM
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#31
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,417 User: 12,929      
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I'm calling 336-198 for Biden, with Texas, Ohio and Georgia within a few percentage points of being won as well.
(also unhealthy user of 538, 270towin, Yet Another Political Map Simulator, RealClearPolitics and anything else you care to mention reporting in) |
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28th October 2020, 01:23 AM
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#32
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Oct 28 2020, 01:05 AM) I'm calling 336-198 for Biden, with Texas, Ohio and Georgia within a few percentage points of being won as well. (also unhealthy user of 538, 270towin, Yet Another Political Map Simulator, RealClearPolitics and anything else you care to mention reporting in) That prediction is missing 4 electoral votes somewhere  My current gut prediction is either 305-233 or 334-204 with Biden flipping the 3 Rust Belt states plus AZ, NC, NE-2 and maybe FL (Florida is one state that I'm very wary to trust the forecast on because it was notable for being basically the only state where Republicans did better than expected in 2018, RIP Andrew Gillum & Ben Nelson, Georgia also in a similar boat). Hoping Trump can go under 200 though - IA (and/or ME-2) probably the next state to go after those which would put it at 335-203 / 340-198 (is this what your prediction is?) / 341-197, beyond that is reaching into slightly wishful thinking although not impossible territory. |
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28th October 2020, 01:41 AM
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#33
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,417 User: 12,929
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QUOTE(Grim Bréaper @ Oct 28 2020, 01:23 AM) That prediction is missing 4 electoral votes somewhere My current gut prediction is either 305-233 or 334-204 with Biden flipping the 3 Rust Belt states plus AZ, NC, NE-2 and maybe FL (Florida is one state that I'm very wary to trust the forecast on because it was notable for being basically the only state where Republicans did better than expected in 2018, RIP Andrew Gillum & Ben Nelson, Georgia also in a similar boat). Hoping Trump can go under 200 though - IA (and/or ME-2) probably the next state to go after those which would put it at 335-203 / 340-198 (is this what your prediction is?) / 341-197, beyond that is reaching into slightly wishful thinking although not impossible territory. Forgot Hawaii, it's easy to miss. So 340-198, yes. I feel that about Florida and it's the shakiest part of my prediction (closely followed by Arizona and then NC) but I would give the edge to Biden there, and if I'm giving the edge to Trump in Ohio and Georgia which are also on a knife's edge for me, it feels fair. It's only a short step from there to a 400+ landslide though, just need Ohio, Georgia and Texas to flip and you're there. I'd put a 400+ landslide for Biden on about the same likelihood as Trump winning the EC. |
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28th October 2020, 04:28 PM
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#34
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 29 April 2006
Posts: 3,392 User: 519
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By winning, do we mean fairly or by corruption? Assuming the former, Biden. I get why many are voting Trump (don’t wanna jinx it etc) but that path for Trump is sooo narrow.
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28th October 2020, 05:12 PM
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#35
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 20 January 2011 Posts: 5,907 User: 12,837
   
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QUOTE(Grim Bréaper @ Oct 28 2020, 01:23 AM) That prediction is missing 4 electoral votes somewhere 4 for Kanye maybe?
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28th October 2020, 05:15 PM
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#36
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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So 12 people think Trump will win. I voted Biden.
Wonder who the other 3 for Trump are besides me. 
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28th October 2020, 05:20 PM
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#37
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,564 User: 11,746
   
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I think/want Biden but I think it will be closer than a lot of people are predicting.
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28th October 2020, 07:34 PM
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#38
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
 
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With less than a week to go I'd predict a 359-179 with the Democrats flipping Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nebraska's 2nd District, North Carolina, Maine's Second District, Florida and Iowa (in increasing order of marginality) and missing out Georgia, Ohio and Texas by between 1 and 3 points each.
Don't intend on staying up all night because I'll have a full day of teaching the day after but the decisive blow will be Biden being declared the "apparent winner" in North Carolina at about 11PM EST. |
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28th October 2020, 08:30 PM
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#39
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,457 User: 23,308
  
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I will predict 324-214 with Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Nebraska 2nd district. Declining support amongst seniors for Trump (the 'OK boomer' insult is already becoming somewhat redundant) will mean he narrowly loses in Florida I think.
This post has been edited by Salty Melody: 29th October 2020, 03:09 PM |
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1st November 2020, 03:36 PM
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#40
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Am really surprising that, despite the polls, 14 people here still think Trump will win.
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