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Posted by: Suedehead2 18th January 2020, 11:49 AM

Now that we have a new parliament, it seems reasonable to start a new thread to discuss local byelections. The usual caveat applies - you cannot draw any real conclusions from individual results.

There was one byelection on Thursday in Bristol. Labour held what has generally been a close contest between them and the Tories with an increased majority. Last time the seat was fought (May 2016), Labour and Tories won one seat each in the ward. The Tory has since effected to the Lib Dems (in opposition to Johnson) which probably contributed to the party more than doubling their vote.

Posted by: Suedehead2 24th January 2020, 08:25 AM

There were five by-elections yesterday, four of them in Brent. Labour won all four Brent seats in 2018 with comfortable majorities but things weren't quite so smooth yesterday. They held one seat fairly comfortably although there was a big swing to the Tories. In another ward where two seats were being contested there was also a big swing to the Tories with Labour just about holding both seats.

The fourth seat was more eventful. The seat had previously been won by a Lib Dem in 2002 but he defected to Labour in 2012 and successfully defended the seat as a Labour candidate in both 2014 and 2018. He was then convicted of stealing money while acting as an executor for an estate. As if that wasn't bad enough for Labour, their new candidate was suspended when some Islamophobic tweets were discovered. Once again a party had failed to carry out some basic checks. With no "official" Labour candidate (although he was still on the ballot paper as it was too late to withdraw) the seat was up for grabs and the Lib Dems duly won. The new councillor immediately becomes the leader of a Lib Dem group of one and joins three Tories in trying to oppose the slightly diminished Labour group of 59.

The other seat was a Tory defence in Galloway but I haven't seen a result for that.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 24th January 2020, 12:15 PM

The Galloway one was a Tory win. 22% up on the last election with over 60% BUT there was an independent in the last election that came second with 28% of the vote (approx) who didn’t stand this time. Labour last behind the Greens

Posted by: Harve 24th January 2020, 12:30 PM

Two of the Brent defences, Wembley Central and Alperton, are in the top 5 wards in Britain for numbers of Hindus, with the third Brent ward being a fairly high percentage too.

In December, the three most Hindu constituencies - Brent North as well as Leicester East (safe Labour) and Harrow East (marginal Tory) - all recorded some pretty horrific swings towards the Tories. This was totally out of kilter with the normal of pattern of Remain-voting, ethnically diverse, fairly well-educated places like these, where Labour generally managed to hold steady in an election that was otherwise terrible for them (they did lose some of their vote to the Lib Dems and Greens, but so did the Tories).

So we have evidence that https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/british-indians-warn-hindu-party-not-to-meddle-in-uk-elections over India-related issues did pay off to some extent. I'm sure when the British Election Study report comes out, we'll still find that British Hindus are majority Labour, but the swing against them might have been disproportionate.

The Scottish by elections mostly count the following day, in my experience. Galloway used to be fertile territory for the SNP 25 years ago, but the SNP's voterbase has changed since they absorbed Labour and this now has very Scottish Tory-favourable demographics, so no wonder the Tories held steady.

Posted by: Suedehead2 24th January 2020, 01:30 PM

Scottish local by-elections are under AV (assuming there is only one vacancy) which takes a bit longer to count. That would be a reason for leaving the count until the following day.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 28th February 2020, 07:51 AM

There were 7 local by-elections last night. 2 interesting changes - the Conservatives lost a seat in Cambridge to the Liberal Democrats, whilst Labour lost a seat in Manchester to an independent candidate. Cambridge electing a Lib Dem isn't a surprise, although Labour losing one in Manchester is slightly more so, and even more interesting it wasn't to a different party. Plaid Cymru also gained a seat in Wrexham from an independent.

Posted by: Suedehead2 28th February 2020, 08:53 AM

Last night's results were generally terrible for Labour.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 20th March 2020, 08:16 AM

Last night in Upper Stoke, we had what's likely to be the last by-election for several months. It was a Labour hold, with turnout a minuscule 9%.

Posted by: Steve201 20th March 2020, 08:40 AM

Jesus, barely worth it!

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th March 2020, 08:23 PM

There will be a lot to come when things get back to something vaguely resembling normality.

There will have been a lot of contests being held over until the May elections. Some of these will have been vacant for some time already as byelections are not held if the term of the former councillor (i.e. the one who resigned or died) had less than six months to run.

There will also be councillors who were expecting to step down in May and who are not able or willing to continue beyond then.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 2nd October 2020, 11:17 AM

Re-upping this thread in anticipation of a potential by-election for Westminster. If it happens I don't think the election itself will happen until next year, unless there are changes to the regulations between now and then.

There was a local by-election yesterday in the Northern Isles of Scotland. Will probably take a while for these to be counted as it's off in the Orkneys and most of the ballots were postal ones.

Posted by: Andrew. 2nd October 2020, 11:54 AM

Tbf the voting process would be fairly easy to maintain distancing in I’d imagine.

If Labour’s Keir boost has any hope of reaching Scotland then they should be able to gain this seat

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd October 2020, 12:32 PM

QUOTE(Andrew. @ Oct 2 2020, 12:54 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 2nd October 2020, 12:38 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 2 2020, 01:32 PM)

Posted by: Andrew. 2nd October 2020, 12:41 PM

Yeah, I know it's completely different but for Bake Off they had over 100 people in a bubble for a certain amount of time so I imagine they could do the same for something this important

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd October 2020, 12:51 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Oct 2 2020, 01:38 PM)

QUOTE(Andrew. @ Oct 2 2020, 01:41 PM)

Posted by: blacksquare 16th March 2021, 12:05 PM

Posted by: Iz 💀 16th March 2021, 12:09 PM

Well, this'll be fun. Got visions of another Copeland happening, though Hartlepool is fairly safe Labour.

I'm sure people will extrapolate the result from this a lot.

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th March 2021, 01:01 PM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 16 2021, 12:09 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 16th March 2021, 01:18 PM

I'm surprised that it's taken as long as it has for any seats to become vacant since the last general election given COVID and the age profile of many MPs. Will be interesting to see how the pandemic and the end of the Brexit process has affected support for the major parties If Labour lose the seat, I'd think that it would be likely due to the Reform Party pulling support away from them (their leader stood their last time, so I imagine he'll stand again).

Posted by: Smint 16th March 2021, 02:47 PM

I'm predicting a Tory win sadly unless a Brexit party or REFUK or whatever they are called now split the ultra right wing vote. If it was a straight fight between Labour and Tory there would be no chance.

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 16th March 2021, 02:52 PM

I can't see past a Tory victory here.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 16th March 2021, 07:29 PM

I see one party has already announced it's standing for the first time - the Northern Independence Party, who's main policy is for the north of England to secede from the south of England and become an independent nation. How quaint.

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th March 2021, 08:01 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 16 2021, 07:29 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 20th March 2021, 07:21 AM

The Labour candidate is Paul Williams, Stockon South MP from 2017-2019, and the media's already finding stories like this: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hartlepool-by-election-paul-williams-saudi-arabia-b1819597.html - also probably more important to the specifics of Hartlepool he was a strong Remainer and it was one of the highest voting Leave areas in the country so I suspect any Reform-likes will have a great angle of attack.

labour to find some political sense please

Posted by: steve201 20th March 2021, 09:54 AM

Sounds like he’s returned because Corbyns gone so I’m suspicious! Also seemed like a party stitch up to get him selected!

Posted by: blacksquare 20th March 2021, 10:51 AM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Mar 20 2021, 10:54 AM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 20th March 2021, 11:32 AM

The NIP claim to be filling the void that Corbyn left, seeing themselves as a socialist-style party, and appear to have tried to get Momentum on board with their campaign, so will be interesting to see if that happens (which I doubt), and how many votes they get if they do indeed run - I'd say that breaking 3 figures would be a better than expected result. Although at the moment they are still trying to register as a party, so in Hartlepool their candidate may be forced to stand as an independent.

As I've implied before, if Labour wants to win seats outside of the big cities where their support is strongest, their candidates would need to be tailored to that area, so redistributive on economic issues, and more "socially conservative", or at the very least sending signals in that direction. Although as I've mentioned before, it is much easier for the Tories to move left on economics than it is for Labour to even move a small fart to the right on cultural issues.

Posted by: Iz 💀 20th March 2021, 12:02 PM

Cultural issues is always a tough one to change because it has a moralistic bent. I would imagine most of Labour's supporters would be aghast at any tack right socially, as would Conservatives supporters tacking left on the same. That's something you need to change through exposure to a diverse society (at least in my view, as I believe that that is morally better for everyone).

Better for Labour to avoid talking about cultural issues when in socially conservative areas like these except for certain positive viewpoints of such in attempts to subtly shift the needle their way, and focus on what they'll economically do for the area that the Conservatives will not.

Posted by: steve201 20th March 2021, 06:08 PM

QUOTE(blacksquare @ Mar 20 2021, 10:51 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th March 2021, 10:15 PM

QUOTE(blacksquare @ Mar 20 2021, 10:51 AM)

Posted by: Smint 20th March 2021, 11:15 PM

Maybe although the public seem to think that someone even more unprincipled and dishonest (Johnson) is worth voting for more so what hope is there?

Posted by: steve201 21st March 2021, 01:46 AM

I think the english public find it easier to vote tory for many reasons. Theres a view that the labour party have been hijacked by the liberal centre which looks down at people who they were formed to represent and judge them as rascist and idlers.

Posted by: Smint 21st March 2021, 12:12 PM

I agree that it seems to all be about identity and nationality rather than competence or accountability. The fact that the left are always infighting and that they are smaller in number anyway (especially when you factor in likelihood of the youth voting) means that one party rule will be the norm from now on. Like Trump was widely predicted to win again in 2020 if not for Covid mismanagement and there were signs that in late 2020 the Tories were slipping in the polls similarly. However, this year the vaccine success has stopped any chance of that and now in a straight fight between Conservative and Labour the latter have no chance.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st March 2021, 12:59 PM

The leader of the Northern Independence Party lives in Brighton. Perhaps they are thinking of northern Europe.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 24th March 2021, 05:40 PM

You wait ages for a by-election and 2 come along at once. Neil Gray of the SNP has resigned his seat in Airdre & Shotts to run for Holyrood. This one will be an uneventful SNP hold.

Posted by: J00prstar 24th March 2021, 06:15 PM

Did y'all see the poll recently where 40% or something of the British public said they believed Boris was in better physical health than Kier...? The public be crazy.

Posted by: T Boy 24th March 2021, 06:29 PM

The same prime minister who literally looks like he’s falling apart?

Posted by: Quarantilas 24th March 2021, 07:30 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 24 2021, 06:40 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 24th March 2021, 08:42 PM

QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Mar 24 2021, 07:30 PM)

Posted by: steve201 24th March 2021, 09:00 PM

I see John McDonnell has called for PR for the Westminster parliament - your friends are in the Labour Party SH!

Posted by: Suedehead2 24th March 2021, 09:14 PM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Mar 24 2021, 09:00 PM)

Posted by: Smint 24th March 2021, 10:33 PM

John McDonnell was the best leader this country never had - unfortunately he was seen at the time as too toxic compared with Corbyn which is ironic considering how hated Corbyn became. That said he was more pragmatic, effective and had less of Corbyn's ego.

Posted by: Dill Doe 24th March 2021, 10:43 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Mar 24 2021, 11:33 PM)

Posted by: steve201 24th March 2021, 11:17 PM

I’m baffled when people say Corbyn has an ego? He must be the least egotistical man in British politics

Posted by: Rooney 24th March 2021, 11:35 PM

All politicians have egos, I'd be hard pressed to find one who did not!

Michael, you cannot say Corbyn is the best leader we never had, the guy was not a leader. He was too busy giving his mates jobs, like all other politicians, but his advisots won't ever tell people that. He was a nice guy and he meant well, but imo his inner circle of people just advised him very badly, and when he Corbyn did actually get good advice he did not listen. There was a lot of naivety about him in a Leadership role. McDonnell I totally agree was a really good Shadow Chancellor and his stature in the party and his role definitely improved over time, but he was too closely associated to Corbyn. Whenever he spoke I always found what he had to say really interesting.

Posted by: steve201 28th March 2021, 02:58 AM

Neale Hanvey of the SNP MP has left the party to join Alba Party, will there be a by election in his Kircaldy seat?

Posted by: Quarantilas 28th March 2021, 08:10 AM

Depends. They might run a dual mandate if they get elected to Holyrood (there’s been two defections so far but everyone is hoping for Cherry as a third) but neither have mentioned anything that I’ve seen about stepping down as an MP. Under SNP rules they were obligated to

Posted by: Smint 28th March 2021, 12:46 PM

The Change MPs (or whatever they were called) didn't go for by-election so I doubt the Alba lot will. Newly formed parties would be making sure that they fall at the first hurdle by going for a by election. The more established parties would easily win.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 29th March 2021, 08:32 AM

NIP are running Thelma Walker, who lost her seat in Colne Valley in 2019 whilst running for Labour. With Hilton Dawson running for the North East Party, there are now 3 ex-Labour MPs due to run in Hartlepool.

Posted by: Iz 💀 29th March 2021, 08:55 AM

That's a good get. Stands in stark contrast to Labour's pick, will be very interesting to see how much traction the NIP get, they certainly seem to have a good handle on the social media side of things. Don't expect them to win but a signal to the Labour party what the cost of running against a left party attempting to engage voters with their old strategy is will be welcome.

like there's been so much assumptions of what voters in northern seats want by analysts, getting a test of what they do is necessary.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 1st April 2021, 08:13 PM

John Prescott (not THAT one ) is standing in the Hartlepool by-election: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExzWLz8XEAASSrA.jpg

From the recent MRP poll of 83 Northern England constituencies, it's predicting a narrow Labour HOLD.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 5th April 2021, 02:28 PM

Another by-election is on the cards following the death of Conservative Cheryl Gillan, the MP for Chesham and Amersham. She had a 16,000 majority at the last election, so unlikely to see this seat change hands when the writ comes.

Posted by: Suedehead2 5th April 2021, 02:41 PM

I'm surprised her majority was as low as 16,000.

Posted by: Harve 5th April 2021, 02:42 PM

It will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems do in such a constituency. We might get a better idea of how much the spectre of Corbyn actually was a problem in 2019 and how they fare in such a wealthy seat in a post-Brexit era with more traditional right-left politics restored. The Lib Dems scored a respectable second place in 2019 there but unlike many of their other second places, they have no history of doing well in the 90s and 00s and little council representation. The Tories have secured absolute majorities for over 70 years.

Posted by: Suedehead2 5th April 2021, 02:54 PM

QUOTE(Harve @ Apr 5 2021, 03:42 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 5th April 2021, 11:53 PM

Posted by: steve201 6th April 2021, 07:24 AM

NIP already ahead of the Libs!

Posted by: blacksquare 6th April 2021, 07:37 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Apr 5 2021, 11:53 PM)

Posted by: Harve 6th April 2021, 07:48 AM

A third-party vote of 11% or less would be far, far lower than usual for a by-election, even when they are obvious two-horse races. Only the Richmond Park by-election would compare here.

Posted by: Iz 💀 6th April 2021, 08:03 AM

Yeah I would imagine that all of those 3rd-party vote totals will be bigger, I'd call out about 10-15% split between them.

Hartlepool has been Labour since its creation so losing it would be a huge blow to Labour, a seat that Corbyn held, that held on through all the struggles of the 80s, so I wouldn't say that if it did go it reflects entirely badly on Starmer's leadership (though it certainly would be a very bad look that would indicate his current strategy is wrong for keeping these kinds of seats), but that if the Tories did win this, then they've effectively expanded their coalition of voters over and above Labour's.

Main thing I'm now interested in watching is that if that poll plays out, whether the NIP votes exceed the vote gap.

Posted by: Iz 💀 6th April 2021, 08:07 AM

btw I do think NIP are a riot from my position as a solely social media observer, actually having fun with their campaign, a solid set of branding and ideals, and a great environment for them to test the waters of a left nationalist party in even if it does risk Labour an MP. I think they will exceed 2%.

I reckon even if Labour do lose it it's a likely flip back at the next GE unless this is the beginning of true pasokification.

Posted by: Harve 6th April 2021, 04:25 PM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Apr 6 2021, 10:03 AM)

Posted by: steve201 6th April 2021, 09:59 PM

Looks like that bloody Corbyn is now costing Labour seats it won twice under his leadership

Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th April 2021, 07:07 PM

There are SIXTEEN candidates running in the Hartlepool by-election, the most for a by-election in a long time I believe:

SDP - David Bettney
Monster Raving Loony - The Incredible Flying Brick
North East - Hilton Dawson
Women's Equality - Gemma Evans
Green - Rachel Featherstone
Independent - Adam Gaines
Liberal Democrats - Andrew Hagon
Freedom Alliance - Steve Jack
No description - Chris Killick
Independent - Sam Lee
Heritage Party (UK) - Claire Martin
Conservative - Jill Mortimer
Reform UK - John Prescott (not that one)
Independent - Thelma Walker
Independent - W. Ralph Ward-Jackson
Labour - Paul Williams

The party with the racist acronym failed to fill in their paperwork correctly, so Thelma Walker is listed as an Independent on the ballot. Quite a few parties taking part in their first by-election, like the North East Party, Freedom Alliance (an anti-lockdown party), and the Brexit continuity party, Reform UK.

Posted by: steve201 8th April 2021, 07:18 PM

Is the SDP the party formed in 1981?

Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th April 2021, 07:20 PM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 8 2021, 08:18 PM)

Posted by: steve201 8th April 2021, 09:27 PM

What a strange turn for them lol, must be so small that any group can influence if they join.

Posted by: Iz 💀 9th April 2021, 02:55 AM

Shame that Northern Independence couldn't make it on (I'd imagine that most would think of a short version of 'nipple' before a dated racial slur but it might be wise for them to address that, maybe just their Twitter handle - Free North Now - would be better, FNN doesn't have any bad connotations). As far as I can understand by browsing Twitter their original application was rejected on a minor technical omission in their party constitution and they resubmitted the same day they were informed but too late. That will probably cost them their deposit having to refer to Walker as 'an independent backed by the Northern Independence Party' though I'd still think she has a good chance of coming third.

This is a good article I've read that matches my thoughts on why I am taking them seriously as a prospect for now even though I acknowledge that at the moment they have some things to take care of, like filling in forms correctly: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/04/why-you-should-take-tongue-cheek-northern-independence-party-seriously. There's a lot of historical Labour practices towards the north that are not currently in the party's platform and are in the kind of ideas that Northern Independence are advocating.

Wouldn't call them amateurish though, surely a good part of their appeal is their ability to use rhetoric outside of the box and liven up politics, anyone chastising them for their lack of formality is missing a lot of the point of political disengagement by many voters.

Posted by: Smint 4th May 2021, 12:00 PM

Absolutely shocking poll today puts the Tories SEVENTEEN points ahead of Labour in the Hartlepool by election. Remember this is a seat that has never voted Tory. So depressing that they get away with it again and again...

Posted by: Brett-Butler 4th May 2021, 12:03 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 4 2021, 01:00 PM)

Posted by: Smint 4th May 2021, 12:07 PM

I just hope that in the Scottish parliamaeant the SNP (plus other independence parties) do well enough to wipe the smile off the Tories face this Thursday with a mandate for Indyref2.

Posted by: steve201 4th May 2021, 12:09 PM

Whether a it’s 17 points or 5 points a Tory win would be ridiculous there. Looks like turning centre has just meant losing votes to the greens/NIP and right votes to the tories!

Posted by: Quarantilas 4th May 2021, 12:26 PM

Flawed tho the poll may be, it shows that it’s not just the Greens/NIP that is taking support. There is a failure to recapture the vote that went ukip/Brexit in the past that once upon a time was labour or death.

Fundamentally, labour finds itself on the wrong side of the argument in Scotland and the North from its core vote base and does literally nothing to reconcile that while bemoaning the loss of support and blaming literally everything apart from the actual things causing them to lose votes.

Posted by: Dill Doe 4th May 2021, 12:36 PM

Will Keir resign?

Posted by: steve201 4th May 2021, 01:23 PM

Course he won’t resign lol!

He should just learn to steer left and build on his competence as leader to work to gain voters back!

Posted by: Rooney 4th May 2021, 02:10 PM

QUOTE(steve201 @ May 4 2021, 02:23 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 4th May 2021, 02:22 PM

I do not trust that that poll is close to the reality, but in Hartlepool specifically, Conservative win seems likely. More perhaps for Conservative promising the North for investment (in agreement with you there Rooney), but definitely a problem for Labour that they are looking to lose a seat they held in 2019 and held very well in 2017, against an incumbent government.

I do however think that Labour will end up doing quite okay from the local elections, but will lose Hartlepool and that'll be the big headline because one seat in Parliament representing an idiosyncratic constituency is apparently more reflective of the country and more dramatic to columnists than the thousands of councillors being elected across the nation.

QUOTE(Rooney @ May 4 2021, 02:10 PM)

Posted by: Rooney 4th May 2021, 02:37 PM

While I get your point about the Brexit Party voters, I suspect if Farage was not standing candidates in a large amount of areas, a LOT of the votes would have gone for the Tories (look at Doncaster and Barnsley for example) - where do these voters go now. I'm not saying some of the voters were not anti-establishment, but a lot of them were Brexit related. And like I said before, how many of us commenting actual live in the North? Let me tell you, it is grim up here. If the Tories come and offer investment, central Government money etc. that's a massive vote win. It's interesting in the polling data a lot of people seem to have no idea Brexit has been reformed as Reform. Farage barely gets any airtime these days as he has nothing to talk about, so that is not too surprising.

Posted by: Oliver 4th May 2021, 04:40 PM

Totally agree there Rooney regarding the north east, investment opportunities was one of the main reasons Blyth Valley (along with Brexit) went to the Tories (something which I didn’t think I’d see for a very long time, and even then thought it would be Lib Dems)... Ronnie Campbell had become very lacklustre around here and I’m not surprised it took something like Brexit to change things.

Posted by: Smint 4th May 2021, 06:34 PM

I wish it was a case of the "North" as you put it voting for redistribution of wealth (but funnily enough they turned their nose up on Corbyn who put forward a case for genuine wealth redistribution in 2019). But we all know that a lot of the appeal is due to the flag waving Nationalism, war on the "woke", bashing the EU and other small minded stuff dictated to them by the Mail, Sun and other press.

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th May 2021, 06:44 PM

The Tories are claiming to have created 180,000 well-paid jobs in Hartlepool - a town of 90,000 people.

Posted by: Rooney 4th May 2021, 08:02 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 4 2021, 07:34 PM)

Posted by: steve201 4th May 2021, 11:53 PM

Oh come on so the tories offer some investment(which I’m yet to see the details of) and the people there after voting Labour for generations just accept it? It’s clearly the cultural realignment brexit and it’s effects have created within British politics as a whole. The tories could have offered these kinds of things at any time since the war and people in these areas wouldn’t have voted for them.

This cultural dismantling has taken place over generations by undermining the trade unions, destroying the industries, allowing people to buy their council houses its all created more individualism and the hell with everyone else type of society which is what the tories intimately wanted.

The fact is that yes the government have a vaccine boost to ride on but they also failed to pin the government as having one of the worst pandemic responses in the world and one of the biggest death rates per population size. That’s on Starmer imo. Failure to get a decent result here would be a step back there’s no doubt especially after 11 years of Tory rule.

In 2015, Labour won 35.6% of the vote in Hartlepool - less than it did in 2019 - while 28% voted for UKIP - more than voted for the Brexit Party in 2019. But in 2017, Labour benefited from UKIP's collapse and won 52.5%.

So why isn't the same happening today?

Posted by: Iz 💀 5th May 2021, 06:25 AM

QUOTE(steve201 @ May 4 2021, 11:53 PM)

Posted by: Smint 5th May 2021, 10:30 AM

One other thing is that as Owen Jones points out is that house ownership is high in Hartlepool and there is a large correlation between that and voting Tory. There are undoubtedly very poor people up there but they aren’t the ones voting for Johnson. It’ll be culturally backwards older people who love the Tories divisive language.

Posted by: Rooney 5th May 2021, 11:10 AM

QUOTE(steve201 @ May 5 2021, 12:53 AM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 5th May 2021, 11:18 AM

Can I drop a postal vote at a polling station? Or if I post it today will it arrive in time?

Posted by: Oliver 5th May 2021, 12:13 PM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ May 5 2021, 12:18 PM)

Posted by: Klaus 5th May 2021, 12:54 PM

You can drop a postal vote at the polling station if you’ve left it too late!

https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote

Posted by: steve201 5th May 2021, 01:30 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ May 5 2021, 12:10 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 5th May 2021, 04:30 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 4 2021, 07:44 PM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 5th May 2021, 05:02 PM

QUOTE(Klaus @ May 5 2021, 01:54 PM)

Posted by: Oliver 5th May 2021, 08:17 PM

QUOTE(Klaus @ May 5 2021, 01:54 PM)

Posted by: steve201 6th May 2021, 10:54 PM

Thagum Debbonaire didn’t exactly passionately defend Starmers leadership if he lost Hartlepool but then again she likes planning coups against her leader!

Posted by: Rooney 6th May 2021, 11:38 PM

QUOTE(steve201 @ May 6 2021, 11:54 PM)

Posted by: Smint 7th May 2021, 12:00 AM

They may have voted Labour for ages but they’ve not been in power for 11 years. Oh well, I would hope their Tory vote makes them happier if I wasn’t moreconcerned about the culture war on the most vulnerable, the people from lgbt community, foreigners and people of colour which has gone rampant in the last few years.

Posted by: Rooney 7th May 2021, 12:11 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 7 2021, 01:00 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 7th May 2021, 02:14 AM

QUOTE(Rooney @ May 7 2021, 12:11 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 7th May 2021, 02:16 AM

One sentence: you clearly cannot blame Corbyn for this, you can perhaps blame the lingering media-dominant message of Labour = traitors, but that's on the current leadership for not replacing any of that with a strong cut-through message that WOULD replace it.

Corbyn reversed a decline in two years under hostile conditions, why can Starmer not do the same when he's made such a point of being different? (about the only point he has made)

Posted by: common sense 7th May 2021, 06:43 AM

Excellent Tory win in Hartlepool. Once again Labour have the WRONG leader. Get Sadiq Khan in, seems a vote winner. He'll be the next Labour PM.

Posted by: Quarantilas 7th May 2021, 06:52 AM

Posted by: Brett-Butler 7th May 2021, 07:29 AM

Didn't expect the Tories to win an outright plurality of the votes, looks like that opinion poll was more on the money than I expected. The Great Realignment continues apace.

Posted by: steve201 7th May 2021, 07:45 AM

Terrible from Starmer. His shadow cabinet is too bland and stale and safe. I mean look at Biden in America, he has realised that the voters the Dems lost were old blue collar workers and has shown he will invest in them Starmer has done nothing but appeal to the toxic Labour right.

Posted by: Iz 💀 7th May 2021, 07:55 AM

The Labour messaging this morning is pathetic. "We haven't changed quickly enough?" If you going to be changing towards the Tories, then voters will just say to themselves, then why not vote for the real thing.

That is an awful result for an opposition party and one a governing party would be ecstatic at.

(by the way, this big Tory coalition cannot last, it will come crumbling down, either through leafy southern suburbs or their new voters feeling betrayed, depends on the hopefully CONCRETE and MEANINGFUL direction the Labour party goes in, but it looks like they'd rather stumble towards Pasokification instead)

Posted by: RabbitFurCoat 7th May 2021, 07:58 AM

The conditions are incredibly favourable to the government and I certainly never expected any other result but that margin is huge and a terrible result.

Posted by: Smint 7th May 2021, 08:31 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ May 7 2021, 08:55 AM)

Posted by: Rooney 7th May 2021, 08:42 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 7 2021, 09:31 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 7th May 2021, 08:51 AM

QUOTE(Rooney @ May 7 2021, 08:42 AM)

Posted by: Rooney 7th May 2021, 08:51 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ May 7 2021, 03:14 AM)

Posted by: Smint 7th May 2021, 08:53 AM

Corbyn did well in 2017, badly in 2019 mainly due to the Brexit disagreement and I think personally he wasn't strong enough to ride the despicable media storm against him. But he held the seat and share of the vote wasn't as bad as Starmer.
Johnson is ridiculously popular and that is a huge problem I agree. Someone with a more compelling vision has to rise above it. But no point being a fake but dull Boris in the meantime like Starmer did.

Posted by: Rooney 7th May 2021, 09:10 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 7 2021, 09:53 AM)

Posted by: Smint 7th May 2021, 09:17 AM

God if w@nking over a union jack flag is what people want to make them happy then it'll be even sweeter when the Scots go their merry own way and the blue has to be removed!

Posted by: Suedehead2 7th May 2021, 09:40 AM

QUOTE(common sense @ May 7 2021, 07:43 AM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 10:18 AM

QUOTE(common sense @ May 7 2021, 07:43 AM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 10:22 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ May 7 2021, 08:55 AM)

Posted by: steve201 7th May 2021, 11:51 AM

Then you get w*n**rs like Andrew Adonis coming on saying Labour need to be more like Tony Blair with a big picture of William Gladstone behind him!

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 12:12 PM

I did try to warn Suedehead and Rooney - although his idea of centrism is being moderate right wing, even preferring weak authoritarian Mad May to Corbyn - that centrism is dead... Labour need to move left of centre and AVOID culture wars, building up a patriotism about investing and believing in Britain, Better for Britain, etc. They need to move to a position on Scottish indie. I recommend total federalism, or an EU-style union of independent UK nations, with a UK-wide defence managed by Westminster, thus not upsetting anybody with dekusions of British military grandeur. The Lib Dems need to generally become more left wing economically, whilst using their position as a third party ro focus on LOCAL CONCERNS WHEN CAMPAIGNING. No one expects them to get in, especially in a one party state, so hust improve their overall reputation as left wing, whilst focusing on individual seats and local issues. Meanwhile, with a move to the left, Green, SNP (perhaps, indie not withstanding) Lib Dems and Labour can have a more comfortable alliance, and Libs and Lab can revert to their Blair years understanding r.e seats. It is an uphill struggle in a one party state, where the government rules the media, but with a left wing alliance and an actual altetnative, they MIGHR scrape enough seats to bring in PR, rwset the culture wara, rejoin the single market, and reform the media and ban BBC news from eeeever reporting on UK politics again.

Posted by: Klaus 7th May 2021, 12:27 PM

Agree that culture wars is a huge issue, not helped by the media’s reporting. Stuff like the banning of certain Dr Seuss books has far more resonance with people than who paid for the redecoration of Downing Street.

Posted by: Suedehead2 7th May 2021, 12:45 PM

QUOTE(Klaus @ May 7 2021, 01:27 PM)

Posted by: Klaus 7th May 2021, 12:52 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 7 2021, 01:45 PM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 01:11 PM

QUOTE(Klaus @ May 7 2021, 01:52 PM)

Posted by: Rooney 7th May 2021, 01:22 PM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ May 7 2021, 01:12 PM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 01:25 PM

Just heard that a councillor who lost her seat in Sunderland has resigned from politics due to "horrific abuse" levelled at her and her family from the far right!!!

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 01:26 PM

Bernie is the most popular politician in America and got cheated out of thr nomination TWICE. The DNC even admitted it in court, as the primaries are NOT consitutionally protected. He would have destroyed Trump. Biden scraped in on a few votes!

Posted by: J00prstar 7th May 2021, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 7 2021, 09:31 AM)

Posted by: common sense 7th May 2021, 02:33 PM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ May 7 2021, 11:18 AM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 7th May 2021, 04:47 PM

I never supported Starmer, but he is FAR better than Blojo.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 9th May 2021, 05:20 PM

There will be another by-election in a Labour marginal seat coming up. As Tracy Brabin is almost guaranteed to be elected mayor of West Yorkshire, her seat in Batley & Spen will be up for contention soon (a seat she inherited from the murdered MP Jo Cox). Her majority in 2019 was 3,500 , and in the local elections the Tories ran Labour close, so it is one that could be a toss-up, although I think the odds will be in Labour's favour this time around.

Posted by: Suedehead2 9th May 2021, 05:32 PM

Batley and Spen is one of the seats Labour won from the Tories in 1997 (the Tories had won it narrowly in the three previous elections) and they have held it ever since.

Posted by: Rooney 9th May 2021, 06:27 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 9 2021, 06:20 PM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 9th May 2021, 09:54 PM

The Labour woman I voted for Police and Crime Commissioner won!! And by a yuge, increased majority! Finally, someone I vote for wins I'm not sure what one does, but it's good it's a Labour position, especially to help chip away at the one party Tory state!

Posted by: Suedehead2 12th May 2021, 08:55 PM

Jo Cox's sister is putting her name forward as a potential candidate for the Batley and Spen byelection.

Posted by: Rooney 12th May 2021, 08:58 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 12 2021, 09:55 PM)

Posted by: Smint 12th May 2021, 09:05 PM

Sadly still think it's a win for the Tories but she'll do better than the Hartlepool election (in terms of swing against Labour) and she's extremely brave to do it. Maybe the Lib Dems and Greens and Northern independence party should step aside?

Posted by: Suedehead2 12th May 2021, 09:09 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ May 12 2021, 10:05 PM)

Posted by: Quarantilas 12th May 2021, 09:23 PM

Airdrie and Shotts is this week! It should be an SNP win. The current MP just won election to Holyrood for the same constituency so it’s be a Shock a week later to see that reversed! Not sure why they couldn’t hold them on the same day tho

Posted by: Harve 12th May 2021, 11:16 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ May 7 2021, 03:22 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 13th May 2021, 07:48 AM

As I've mentioned since the 2019 election, the realignment isn't between the north and south, but between the cities and the towns and villages, which is why we've been seeing not only Labour losing a lot of the old industrial towns, but the Tories losing seats in London, and with no chance of making breakthroughs in the cities where Labour hold a strong position, even in the North - I can't imagine many seats in Newcastle & Liverpool falling to the Tories.

Posted by: Rooney 13th May 2021, 08:49 AM

QUOTE(Harve @ May 13 2021, 12:16 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th May 2021, 04:46 PM

The Chesham & Amersham byelection is on June 18, just before the target date for the lifting of most restrictions. That might be seen as an attempt to stop the Lib Dems mounting a full campaign but it could backfire if the government has to delay the next stage of their plan.

Posted by: Quarantilas 20th May 2021, 05:02 PM

QUOTE(Quarantilas @ May 12 2021, 11:23 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 26th May 2021, 04:41 AM

Few days ago, but the Batley and Spen by-election is being contested by Jo Cox's sister, Kim Leadbeater - for Labour of course. Which is instantly a much better choice than the previous big one, and Batley and Spen is a less vulnerable seat for Labour than Hartlepool, though I'm still expecting a close race.

Chesham and Amersham, mildly interesting but I don't even think the LD + Lab vote will outpace the Tories here.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2021, 05:32 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ May 26 2021, 05:41 AM)

Posted by: Smint 26th May 2021, 09:54 AM

The way things are going I'm half expecting Chesham and Amersham to be closer than Batley and Spen. But both will be two Tory wins. Starmer is seen as a huge liability now by the voters as he stands for nothing.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th May 2021, 07:01 PM

George Galloway has announced he's standing in Batley & Spen for the Workers Party of Great Britain (not to be confused with the Workers Party). The last time he stood in a parliamentary constituency in 2019 he got 489 votes, standing in West Brom East, and can't see him doing much better here. I think Batley & Spen will be a Labour hold - they've picked the one candidate who can beat the Tories here.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 28th May 2021, 11:03 PM

I wonder if the Heavy Woollen District Independents will stand again - they got over 12% in 2019.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 29th May 2021, 09:40 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 29 2021, 12:03 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 29th May 2021, 03:23 PM

The Batley & Spen byelection will be on 1 July.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 31st May 2021, 03:57 PM

The candidates for the Chesham & Amersham by-election on 17th June are -

Green - Carolyne Culver
Rejoin EU - Brendan Donnelly
Conservative - Peter Fleet
Liberal Democrats - Sarah Green
Breakthrough Party - Carla Gregory
Freedom Alliance - Adrian Oliver
Labour - Natasa Pantelic
Reform UK - Alex Wilson

Breakthrough Party are contesting their first by-election; they appear to be a youth-orientated democratic socialist party. An anti-lockdown party, the Freedom Alliance, will be contesting the last election where they could have any relevance, whilst Brendan Donnelly is a former Tory MEP turned pro-EU campaigner. Think this will be a Tory win, with Lib Dems 2nd.

Posted by: Harve 31st May 2021, 07:14 PM

Only thing notable is that the Tories have a possibility of getting a smaller vote share in a constituency they've won absolute majorities in for decades than their vote share in Hartlepool (52%) that they gained midterm after decades of Labour wins.

But their victory could be a lot better than 52% too. If the home counties start turning away from the Tories in favour of the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour then this isn't the first place where this will happen. The remain vote, housing crisis, ethnic diversity and out-migration of young families from London - all factors that could play a part in a Tory downfall - is happening more so in other suburban constituencies.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 3rd June 2021, 01:41 PM

https://medium.com/@ianjohnwarren/batley-spen-labours-challenge-95b369651ee4 which outlines why it is highly likely that Labour will retain the seat despite it voting 60% to Leave. Basically, Batley is not Hartlepool.

Posted by: Harve 4th June 2021, 01:13 PM

Hartlepool was perhaps the worst Labour-held constituency for a by-election to be held in this parliamentary cycle. Batley isn't so bad, although I'd say that it's still a bit worse than the average of Labour's 200 seats*. But I think if the Hartlepool result was replicated with Batley's demographics then it would still be a defeat for Labour, so they need to run a better campaign rather than just relying on more favourable demographics.

Of course, for the Tory majority to be threatened next general election, a sign would be them losing Batley not just by a little but fairly handily.

It's also important to recognise that this seat has only had a Labour majority once, in 2017. It only switched to Labour in 1997 after voting for the Tories in Thatcher's time, and even at the height of Tony Blair's popularity, Labour could only manage a plurality.

*You can go into census breakdowns if you want, but honestly I find that the 2015 UKIP vote is a pretty good indicator for everything that follows, and at 18% it was rather high here. The BNP presence has also historically been large.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 7th June 2021, 09:04 PM

After a massive range of candidates in the recent Hartlepool by-election, the Batley & Spen by-election also has a mammoth ballot, with sixteen different candidates taking part in the Labour marginal on 1st July. The candidates are -

• Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance
• Mike Davies - Alliance For Green Socialism
• Jayda Fransen - Independent
• George Galloway - Workers Party
• Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
• Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats
• Howling Laud Hope - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Susan Laird - Heritage Party
• Kim Leadbeater - Labour Party
• Oliver Purser - Social Democratic Party
• Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
• Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU
• Ryan Stephenson - Conservative Party
• Jack Thomson - UK Independence Party
• Jonathan Tilt - Freedom Alliance
• Anne Marie Waters - The For Britain Movement

Posted by: Harve 7th June 2021, 10:20 PM

Jayda Fransen, Anne-Marie Waters AND George Galloway on the same ballot, and no doubt some of the others are rather unsavoury too. The fash are spoilt for choice.

Here's hoping that Jayda gets crowded out and gets fewer votes than the 46 she had in Glasgow South, although given that it's in England I imagine she'll get a few more.

Posted by: Rooney 7th June 2021, 10:24 PM

Think the one to keep an eye on here is the Yorkshire Party- did really well in the Mayoral elections. Be interested to see if they can finish 3rd or 4th here.

Posted by: Quarantilas 7th June 2021, 10:43 PM

The sight of fash having the audacity to stand in this seat makes me sick.

Posted by: Iz 💀 8th June 2021, 05:53 AM

Galloway could well be the spoiler that turns this into a closer race than it should be. It may have been a while but he has form in mobilising the Muslim vote and some left-wing votes. I'd say him third with Labour narrowly losing to the Conservatives.

Posted by: Rooney 8th June 2021, 10:46 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Jun 8 2021, 06:53 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 8th June 2021, 11:34 AM

There's less of a Muslim vote than in Bradford West which he won in 2012, but still a significant one in Batley. It has been a while which is why I'm not certain but this is an experienced left populist with a track record - I'd be very worried about him if I were Labour, and hope their ground game, what they're able to do, can counter it.

Posted by: Dill Doe 8th June 2021, 11:38 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Jun 8 2021, 12:34 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 16th June 2021, 03:48 PM

Could be an upset in the offing tomorrow..

Posted by: Harve 16th June 2021, 06:29 PM

When more people approve of the government's performance than disapprove, which historically is exceptional, then I don't think that the national environment allows for a Lib Dem win, and if local issues are at play then a narrow loss I don't think means much for everyone else either.

Posted by: Botchia 16th June 2021, 06:42 PM

It would be quite a turnout for LDs to take Chesham & Amersham but I don't see it happening.

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th June 2021, 07:10 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 16 2021, 04:48 PM)

Posted by: Smint 17th June 2021, 10:06 PM

Even though it’s not a win, that result would be a big boost to Ed Davey and will make the Tories think again about their “Red Wall” obsession. Wonder what the reason is for that huge swing? Well despite the Tories being useless and corrupt obviously but that’s not affected their vote in last few years.

Posted by: Harve 17th June 2021, 10:28 PM

The opposition parties managing to deny the Tories an outright majority in Chesham tonight, which has never happened in this constituency, even at their nadir in the early 00s, would still be a pretty encouraging result given the favourable national environment for the government. I think expectations management has gone a bit awry here where, say, 50% Tory/35% Lib Dem/8% Green/7% Labour + others would be seen as a disappointment and an anti-climax.

Posted by: Harve 18th June 2021, 12:35 AM

Posted by: Harve 18th June 2021, 12:55 AM

Ok the Tories actually got demolished lmao

Posted by: Smint 18th June 2021, 01:07 AM

Fantastic news! Tories demolished (oh it feels good to write that even for a by election). The seat isnt a million miles away from Uxbridge, Johnson's old seat either. Well done Lib Dems

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 18th June 2021, 01:32 AM

How did they manage to turn a 16,000 Tory majority in 2019 into an 8,000 victory here? I haven't really been keeping tabs on this by-election admittedly, but that seems unprecedented to me.

(especially as I expected the death of the Tory MP to have triggered this by-election would have created a fair bit of goodwill for their successor, if that's an OK thing to say)

Posted by: Iz 💀 18th June 2021, 02:01 AM

Holy.. hell.

That's very good news for my theory that Tories chasing northern votes has left them vulnerable to Lib Dems in certain parts of the leafy, localist south. Maybe anti-HS2 sentiment played a specific part, but otherwise this looks like an average Home County seat.

Definitely should get the same amount of coverage that Hartlepool got, it won't.

Posted by: Harve 18th June 2021, 02:04 AM

QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Jun 18 2021, 03:32 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 18th June 2021, 02:14 AM

Also Labour on less than 2% of the vote when they got 11,000 in 2017, definitely tactical voting going on and few enough people in this constituency who'd vote for Labour regardless.

Posted by: Suedehead2 18th June 2021, 05:35 AM

That's an amazing result. The number of emails I've had from the Lib Dems over the last few weeks was a clear sign of optimism but I didn't expect a win on this scale.

It is pretty disgraceful that there has been no pre-vote coverage of this byelection at all. It must have been clear for at least a week but I have seen nothing in the press and nothing on the BBC website apart from a brief mention when Johnson paid a visit. Even now, the result is only the second story on the BBC site.

Posted by: Suedehead2 18th June 2021, 05:41 AM

Minister for propaganda Laura Kuenssberg tweeted last night that the Tories were not worried about the possibility of losing the seat. She clearly didn't get permission from her boss at Number Ten to speak to anyone from the Lib Dems who might have given a different view.

Posted by: steve201 18th June 2021, 07:03 AM

QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Jun 18 2021, 02:32 AM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 18th June 2021, 07:21 AM

Looks like the Lib Dems will have to upgrade their parliamentary offices from a phone box to a small caravan.

Definitely got this prediction wrong, another one to add to the list. I imagine there were a lot of local factors in play here - The Great Realignment cuts both ways.

Posted by: Botchia 18th June 2021, 07:39 AM

Stunning result for the Lib Dems

And they managed to do it without sustained daily media hype like the Tories had with Hartlepool.

Posted by: Quarantilas 18th June 2021, 07:40 AM

Zero coverage of this on the homepage of bbc News. Hartlepool however was the lead story for like a week

This only appears when you click into the UK.


Unless of course the main page is configured differently for international viewers but they’ve never buried a Tory gain like this…

Posted by: Brett-Butler 18th June 2021, 07:46 AM

QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Jun 18 2021, 08:40 AM)

Posted by: Quarantilas 18th June 2021, 08:02 AM

I’ve got the Iranian election as the lead off story. It’s only when I hit the UK tab that I see this story at all. Wasn’t the case for Hartlepool

Posted by: Rooney 18th June 2021, 09:02 AM

Yeah it's the lead story on the BBC News, disappointing there was a lack of coverage in the way Hartlepool generated or evern Batley is generating now. I guess people suspected it was a very safe seat and there was no chance of an upset, how wrong.

This is great news though, reading between the lines it does appear once again as local issues have played a huge part in people's voting. Sounds like a lot of it is to do with the Housing Bill and HS2. Totally agree this is where the Tories are going to foot them in to foot big time.

Posted by: steve201 18th June 2021, 09:49 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 18 2021, 08:21 AM)

Posted by: blacksquare 18th June 2021, 10:26 AM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Jun 18 2021, 09:49 AM)

Posted by: Quarantilas 18th June 2021, 11:57 AM

that might be the funniest thing I have seen all day.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 18th June 2021, 12:24 PM

I used to live in suburban Chesham back in the mid-60's, went to Primary School there. When I last went back in the 90's or early 00's nothing had changed. So that'll be a lesson to the Tories about HS2 and Nimbyism in rural areas. It's also possible that a few people were bothered by the 140,000 Covid deaths, though granted large numbers of folk would rather huge numbers of people die rather than them having to wear a face mask while shopping, or have a jab, even if they work in care homes for the vulnerable....

All those UKIP votes were up for grabs, so....they were never going to vote Labour, and potential Labour voters saw the writing on the wall with LibDem local election successes and voted tactically now labour doesn't appear to do anything much except in-fight and the Tories literally get away with killing off a fair part of the population through incompetence and callousness. Based on D. Cummings viewpoint, of course. And facts.

Posted by: Smint 18th June 2021, 04:46 PM

I'd hope some of the swing was due to the naked ugly Tory populism in a Remain constituency.

Posted by: Dill Doe 18th June 2021, 04:51 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 18 2021, 06:41 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 18th June 2021, 05:50 PM

Some of the comments from Tories on the BBC website and elsewhere are extraordinary. The Lib Dem candidate (now MP) is being criticised for opposing HS2 despite the fact that Lib Dem policy is in favour. They overlook the fact that the previous Tory MP also opposed HS2, as did the Tory byelection candidate, while national Tory policy is in favour. An MP's duty to their constituents should override loyalty to their party. That's what Cheryl Gillan did and that is what the two leading byelection candidates pledged to do.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 18th June 2021, 07:11 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 18 2021, 06:50 PM)

Posted by: sn👠ke 18th June 2021, 08:54 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 18 2021, 10:02 AM)

Posted by: blacksquare 19th June 2021, 10:31 AM

Posted by: Envoirment 19th June 2021, 10:41 AM

QUOTE(blacksquare @ Jun 19 2021, 11:31 AM)

Posted by: Quarantilas 19th June 2021, 02:44 PM

Posted by: Suedehead2 19th June 2021, 04:30 PM

QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Jun 19 2021, 03:44 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th June 2021, 08:40 PM

Part of the Tories' campaigning message in Hartlepool was that their town would get some much-needed funding if they elected a Tory MP. They made it pretty clear that any requests for funding would be ignored if they came from a Labour MP. Sunak wrote to voters in Chesham saying something very similar and now the (heavily defeated) Tory candidate has repeated the message. There used to be an assumption that this sort of thing just didn't happen in UK politics. Now, the Tories are not only doing it but also doing it out in the open yet still it gets ignored.

Posted by: Rooney 20th June 2021, 09:17 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 20 2021, 09:40 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 21st June 2021, 03:11 PM

The lesson for by-elections if anything from Chesham has got to be that when you take voters for granted, they might just find somewhere else to go. The same is going to happen in Batley and it'll come to an opportunistic and vote-chasing Labour Party who will deserve the loss - this time not because they chose the wrong candidate (they chose perhaps the best and that's why a loss will lie squarely as the fault of the national party), but because the party itself just has no vision.

By-elections are the time to make this dissatisfaction known and it looks like the British Muslim community is poised to do just that.

A progressive alliance sounds good on paper but there's a whole host of logistical issues, takes a lot of voters for granted just from its nature and an explicit anti-Tory message probably isn't the most effective.

Posted by: Smint 21st June 2021, 06:17 PM

For a Progressive Alliance to work Labour would need a hell lot more inspiring Leader than Starmer.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st June 2021, 07:31 PM

After the current clown, many of us would be perfectly happy with a boring PM.

Posted by: Rooney 21st June 2021, 07:44 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jun 21 2021, 07:17 PM)

Posted by: Harve 21st June 2021, 08:20 PM

A progressive alliance isn't really necessary and is just tinkering around the edges of the First Past the Post system that's inherently flawed.

The Chesham election - and indeed the Hartlepool one - shows that when it is obvious who the leading anti-Tory contender is, the other parties are going to be squeezed anyway. Voters aren't stupid. And there is no guarantee that the 6% of Chesham or 5% of Hartlepool who voted for a non-Tory progressive would actually be willing to lend their vote for the contender - there's a reason why they stuck with voting for a no-hoper in the first place! It's far more likely that if there was only a Lib Dem on the ballot paper, or only a Labour candidate, then the minority who aren't willing to countenance voting for the contender would just stay at home.

Voters are also idiosyncratic and not every Lib Dem or Green voter would choose a different progressive to their preferred one over a Tory MP! You only have to look at Scottish council election preference rankings under STV to see that. Yes, the majority behave as you would expect, but these are the people who already tactically vote without a progressive alliance having been put in place.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st June 2021, 08:37 PM

The biggest problem with a non-aggression pact (as effectively happened in 1997) is that Labour has to be led by someone Lib Dem (and other) supporters are prepared to see as PM. Even left-leaning Lib Dem voters found it hard to vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party but they are far more likely to be prepared to vote for a Starmer-led one. Ed Davey's comments at the weekend were about as close as we are likely to get to a Lib Dem leader encouraging voters to vote Labour in an individual constituency.

Posted by: Rooney 21st June 2021, 08:57 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 21 2021, 09:37 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st June 2021, 09:16 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 21 2021, 09:57 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 22nd June 2021, 02:28 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 21 2021, 07:31 PM)

Posted by: Rooney 22nd June 2021, 08:35 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Jun 22 2021, 03:28 AM)

Posted by: ElectroBoy 22nd June 2021, 09:59 AM

Starmer's issue is he has a total lack of personality and at the moment I think that you need to be engaging and have some form of charisma to cut through. Yes there loads of other things as well, but for all of Boris' shite (and there is a huge heap of that) he unfortunately has a personality which has been built up for years since he was London Mayor.

I'd say the only Labour person who could potentially cut through at the moment is someone like Andy Burnham given the press he has had over the last year during the Pandemic. He is someone who seems to genuinely care, is engaging, passionate and seems up front and honest about things. I also can't really see Labour bringing back the North until it has some form of Northern, working class leader. Starmer may be a good speaker for the POV of his previous job etc, but he is dull and seemingly ineffectual. However given there has been a pandemic and the Tories have such a majority, it would be difficult for any leader to be able to do anything in Parliament right now.

Basically its a mess.

Posted by: Smint 22nd June 2021, 10:04 AM

Andy Burnham is probably the only realistic candidate but it would take a long time for him to get elected as an MP and would probably want to cement his reputation as Mayor of Manchester for a few more years.

Starmer is an absolute disaster - the electorate find him extremely uncharismatic but also that he doesn't have any vision or believe in anything. Rather than uniting the Labour party he is purely focused on attacking the left and chasing "Red Wall" voters who aren't interested.

Posted by: Dill Doe 22nd June 2021, 10:05 AM

Rememebr: there IS a right wing alliance. They lie to the press about it not existing to throw Labour off, but it exists. They all use the same talkong points at the same time - currently all screaming about "cultural Marxism"????, whatever that is supposed to be - and they do deals in elections, just like last time, but keep it secret. The left and centre right must do the same.

Posted by: Smint 22nd June 2021, 11:26 AM

True and a generalisation here slightly but Right wingers play dirty, break the rules and are completely ruthless - regard how people like Cummings can go from hero to zero in a flash. Whereas the left make sure they are being ultra fair, dot their i's and cross their t's and carry on losing. Some would say "They Go Low, We Go High" isn't working really.

Posted by: Suedehead2 22nd June 2021, 04:33 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 22 2021, 09:35 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 22nd June 2021, 05:11 PM

In the Batley and Spen doc that Owen Jones put out a lot of the constituents seemed to be in favour of Andy Burnham running for leader of the Labour Party.

IF Labour do lose that by-election (and it looks increasingly likely now that they will) then no question Keir has to resign or be challenged - it looks like the most likely challenger will be Angela Rayner should he refuse to resign and it's likely that he/those around him will refuse to do so with all the excuses already coming out nice and early.

Posted by: Harve 22nd June 2021, 08:07 PM

QUOTE(ElectroBoy @ Jun 22 2021, 11:59 AM)

Posted by: steve201 22nd June 2021, 09:16 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jun 22 2021, 12:26 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 22nd June 2021, 09:20 PM

Nobody cares but me - however if Batley and Spen does end up going to the Conservatives, the last time that a governing party has won 2 by-elections (previously not held by them) in the same Parliament was by Ramsay MacDonald in 1929.. one of which was a defection from the Liberals and other completely uncontested in a seat won previously by a (by that point, defunct) Irish Parliamentary MP.

So basically this would be unprecedented!

Posted by: steve201 22nd June 2021, 09:22 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 22 2021, 10:20 PM)

Posted by: Smint 22nd June 2021, 09:49 PM

Rayner would be good as a caretaker and put some oomph in it. Nandy would be ok too.

Posted by: steve201 23rd June 2021, 12:28 PM

Johnson having a right go at the Liberals today regarding planning at PMQs!

Posted by: Popchartfreak 23rd June 2021, 01:36 PM

Andy Burnham is Labour's best opportunity for rehabiliation, he's made subtle comments about being Party leader.

If parties want to defeat what the Tories are doing to this country, exactly as I predicted they would during Brexit voting (and got into heated arguments about it), then they have to work together and swallow their arrogance. Otherwise same result as last time and they will again get what they deserve.

I always vote tactically. My opinion is any party (that isn't bordering on the insane) is better than Tories, and the ultra-right-wing Tories (currently engaged in paying back reasonable C4 commentary on their behaviour by selling it off) are worse than any alternative.

Tories I know are utterly blinkered and removed from reality. Cummings was a hero now he's "a devil and they never really liked him anyway they were just cheering him on and Boris never lies about anything it's just sour grapes from lefties" or else they just get annoyed with you for bringing it up that their opinion on Cummings was wrong and others were right - the whole House Of Cards is in danger if they admit anything at all, as it's all based on lies and bullshit. As a party they have become as lost to reason as the Republicans have. Once you start trying to justify the unjustifiable and engage in trying to call provable facts lies, then you are now an extremist.

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd June 2021, 01:43 PM

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Jun 23 2021, 02:36 PM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak 23rd June 2021, 04:00 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 23 2021, 02:43 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 23rd June 2021, 05:25 PM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Jun 23 2021, 01:28 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd June 2021, 05:39 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 23 2021, 06:25 PM)

Posted by: Smint 23rd June 2021, 06:25 PM

The North East outside of the city centers seems to believe that Johnson and this new brand of Tories walks on water. I'm expecting a very big defeat for Labour - they don't help matters much either.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 23rd June 2021, 06:38 PM

I'm still going to predict Batley & Spen as a win for Labour. Even though I've been reading stories all week about George Galloway pulling away support from potential Labour supporters all week (and I think he will finish in a better-than-expected 3rd place), I think that there will be enough support to get Labour over the line.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 24th June 2021, 07:50 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 23 2021, 07:38 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 24th June 2021, 10:03 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 24 2021, 08:50 AM)

Would you like to put some money on it?

Posted by: Smint 27th June 2021, 08:54 PM

This Batley and Spen by election is so depressingly toxic. So many odious troublemakers in politics and it's always the left wing parties that get physically attacked.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/27/labour-activists-allegedly-egged-kicked-batley-and-spen-campaign-trail

Posted by: Rooney 27th June 2021, 09:04 PM

All Galloway isn't it? Absolute horrible excuse for a human being. Calls himself a Socialist he just stirs up hatred and the irony being he'd f*** over Muslims at any opportunity given.

Posted by: Smint 27th June 2021, 09:09 PM

If he's a socialist then why does he want the Tories to win the seat?

Theres also the, ahem lovely, Jayda Fransen in the mix.

Dont worry Keir Starmer might say something in support of his assaulted activists in like 3 weeks time after it's been past a focus group and the Tories say it first...

Posted by: Rooney 27th June 2021, 09:15 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jun 27 2021, 10:09 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 28th June 2021, 12:46 PM

Future years will likely see this as the ugliest by-election since Bermondsey back in 1983. Seeing the vile Chris Williamson campaigning with George Galloway doesn’t help things.

Labours odds have lengthened to 4-1, so Inshould have waited a few days before putting my wager on.

Posted by: Smint 28th June 2021, 01:16 PM

So Williamson wants a Tory in too. The Labour party really is the most toxic organisation ridden with infighting The problem is that it allows the Tories a free pass.

Posted by: Rooney 28th June 2021, 02:34 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jun 28 2021, 02:16 PM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 28th June 2021, 03:23 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 28 2021, 03:34 PM)

Posted by: Rooney 29th June 2021, 12:40 AM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Jun 28 2021, 04:23 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 29th June 2021, 02:18 AM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 28 2021, 02:34 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 30th June 2021, 07:56 PM

Stuck another tenner on Labour to win at odds of 4/1, so I've raised the stakes on this. Will be watching the bookies with interest tomorrow to see if the odds shorten during the day.

Posted by: Smint 30th June 2021, 10:16 PM

Is it tomorrow? Thank God as it’s such a toxic by election. I hope Brett Butler you win and although I can find huge faults with Labour under Starmer’s leadership still better than the Tories and a huge shame if Galloway gifts it to the Tories as he seems to be just another Laurence Fox bigot going on about woke (including horrible transphobic views). I’m warming to Kim Leadbeater, hope she gets a sympathy vote for the shit she’s put up with.

But if Labour do lose badly then Starmer should go, no ifs no buts.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 30th June 2021, 10:20 PM

If I lived there I would absolutely vote for Kim Leadbeater.. but the complete lack of vision from the Labour Party would make it difficult to be motivated enough to actually go out and vote tbh.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. I'm about 90% confident that the Tories will win this unfortunately but you never know!

Posted by: Bré 30th June 2021, 10:41 PM

Based on how the last couple of major by-elections have gone I have a feeling this isn't even going to be close. Mind, I still don't know who will win. Just have a feeling that whoever it is will be by a surprisingly large margin.

Posted by: Smint 1st July 2021, 08:13 PM

The odds are shortening in Labour’s favour!

Apparently there IS a sympathy vote for Leadbeter according to Labour activists.

Tories favourite still at this point though. Recent opinion polls have shown a lowering of the Tory lead. Possibly due to the Hancock affair.

Posted by: Envoirment 1st July 2021, 08:43 PM

I do hope Labour win. I think it would boost them in the polls and give them some momentum. Over the last month Labour have started to trend upwards again in the polls and the conservatives down. Hopefully that is a trend that will continue.

Posted by: Smint 1st July 2021, 10:01 PM

70% turnout which is insane for a by election, even greater than 2019 GE. Result not expected until between 4-5 though.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 1st July 2021, 10:22 PM

70% turnout means that either the result will be less clean-cut than expected, or that one particular group of voters have managed to get more fired up than usual and the winner will get well over 50% of the vote. Either way, with that sort of turnout, at least Batley & Spen will at least get a representative that large swathes of the population actually want.

Posted by: Harve 1st July 2021, 11:26 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jul 2 2021, 12:01 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 2nd July 2021, 12:57 AM

Yeah, 70% really sounded out of normality's sphere if it's whole turnout, makes sense for it to be postal votes, official turnout now out:

Posted by: Iz 💀 2nd July 2021, 04:45 AM

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 2nd July 2021, 05:12 AM

Oh wow I genuinely wasn't expecting this at all. Hooray!

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 06:12 AM

Given that Galloway got 22% of the vote, this is a good result for Labour. He very nearly achieved his aim of costing them the seat. As the Tories have continued their habit of keeping their candidate out of the spotlight - not giving interviews, not turning up to hustings - it’s good to see a seemingly very good candidate win.

Posted by: Quarantilas 2nd July 2021, 06:14 AM

Truly abhorrent to see that man get such a high percentage of the vote

Posted by: Brett-Butler 2nd July 2021, 07:31 AM

Congratulations to Kim Leadbeater for coming through in the end. As discussed, the fact the Tories' candidate barely campaigned in person during the campaign cost him a fairly decent chance of a victory, whilst George Galloway once again showed his ability to build up support of a large amount of a electoral population in a short length of time. Of course, the biggest winner of all is me, given I've won £80 from the various bets I made on this income.

Now looking forward to hearing from those who would have demanded Keir Starmer to resign if Labour didn't win this election to claim that this victory was due to Kim Leadbeater and Kim Leadbeater alone.

Posted by: Iz 💀 2nd July 2021, 08:05 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jul 2 2021, 07:31 AM)

Posted by: Botchia 2nd July 2021, 08:10 AM

Wow, I didn't expect Labour to hold on here especially seeing how many votes Galloway took (gross). Hopefully the Chesham and Batley results will put an end to the 'Tories are invincible' narrative now.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 08:17 AM

The Tory candidates in the last three English byelections have kept a very low profile. The obvious assumption is that they have all been weak candidates.

The initial SDP response to the embarrassment who was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Darlington_by-election was to have a proper system of vetting candidates. Johnson's Tory party has decided that "hide them away and hope nobody notices" will work. If that approach continues and the Tories get away with it, we can expect to see future ministers even more incompetent than the current lot.

Posted by: Smint 2nd July 2021, 08:25 AM

Really pleased that Labour and Leadbeter won and congratulations on the win Brett Butler!

I don't think Starmer should claim any credit - it should have been an easy win based on our godawful government. Let's see if he can capitalise on this and whenever the next electoral test comes he does better.

I hope that the sleaze factor is sticking to the Tories and people are seeing them for what they are. There was an extremely encouraging article in the Guardian saying that contrary to Johnson's narrative it was HS2 that lost the recent byelection, the Chesham and Amersham voters were certainly unimpressed with the Tories adoption of populist policies and rejection of previous "One Nation" (not that I would have called it that) conservatism. That and the failure of GB News is giving small grains of comfort over the last few weeks.

Posted by: Rooney 2nd July 2021, 08:30 AM

I do wonder if the Tory candidates kept a low profile because of how toxic the battle here seemingly became too. It’s disheartening to see Galloway get so many bloody votes, I do agree he probably ate in to the Tory vote a little bit but he went far bigger into Labour’s vote.

While yes there is still lots to be cautious about, I think this is a fairly good hold for Labour. I’d like to hope this helps propel the Labour Leadership now going forward seeing as the covid vaccine bounce will wear off in the future/ is already wearing off. Be interesting to see the doom and gloom mongers opinions on Twitter today.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 08:45 AM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jul 2 2021, 09:30 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 09:52 AM

In other news, the Lib Dems won a council byelection last night in what had previously been the safest Tory ward in Dominic Raab's seat. I can assure you that Cobham (the ward in question) is pretty posh.

Posted by: Dill Doe 2nd July 2021, 10:38 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jul 2 2021, 08:31 AM)

Posted by: Smint 2nd July 2021, 11:06 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jul 2 2021, 10:52 AM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 2nd July 2021, 11:23 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jul 2 2021, 12:06 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 12:25 PM

Interestingly, a number of people (not all of them Lib Dems) are speculating that the presence of a Lib Dem candidate helped Labour win. The logic goes like this -

A lot of Lib Dem members may well have voted Labour.
A significant number of other Lib Dem voters may well have voted Tory as their general political beliefs are more ant-Labour than pro-anything.

BUT

Anti-Johnson Tories may have voted Lib Dem. Again, these may be people who are more anti-Labour than pro-Tory. Had there been no Lib Dem candidate, they may well have held their nose and voted Tory. Bear in mind that Tory-inclined voters are more likely than Labour-inclined voters to feel they have a duty to vote.

I don't know how valid that argument is. Of course, when a candidate wins by such a slim margin, there are always lots of theories about what made the difference but it is an interesting contribution to the debate about whether the Lib Dems should stand aside in some Tory-Labour marginals.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 12:27 PM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Jul 2 2021, 12:23 PM)

Posted by: Bré 2nd July 2021, 01:04 PM

QUOTE(Bré @ Jun 30 2021, 11:41 PM)

Posted by: common sense 2nd July 2021, 01:14 PM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Jul 2 2021, 11:38 AM)

Posted by: Smint 2nd July 2021, 01:27 PM

Rather refreshingly for a Tory, Amanda Miller, the co chair did say that the Hancock affair could have been a vote loser for the Tories and it came up on doorsteps - she could have spun this as a win in a Labour seat anyway with a high profile candidate. Although she didn't go as far as to talk about Johnson's numerous scandals and dishonesties (Acuri, bodies high, protecting Patel/Hancock etc) Funny that one man's behaviour is enough to cause a fall but the leader is impervious to any such attack. We'll see if the public still continue to have this blindspot as time goes on.

Posted by: Quarantilas 2nd July 2021, 01:33 PM

QUOTE(common sense @ Jul 2 2021, 03:14 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd July 2021, 02:01 PM

QUOTE(common sense @ Jul 2 2021, 02:14 PM)

Posted by: Dill Doe 2nd July 2021, 02:23 PM

QUOTE(common sense @ Jul 2 2021, 02:14 PM)

Posted by: common sense 2nd July 2021, 03:49 PM

QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Jul 2 2021, 02:33 PM)

Posted by: common sense 2nd July 2021, 03:50 PM

QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Jul 2 2021, 03:23 PM)

Posted by: zenon 2nd July 2021, 04:23 PM

So many possible reasons why Labour won last night.

Hancock scandal
Johnson failed to sack Hancock
Greens pulled out
Symphony vote as sister of murdered MP
Tactical voting
The split Galloway vote
Torys did not campaign enough in constituency

Posted by: Dill Doe 2nd July 2021, 06:13 PM

Lib Dems siphoning off disgrunted Tories might offset the new influx of new "Tories", jumping on thr political bandwagon, laughing at "woke culture", ans supporting "our Boris". Labour should consider working more closely with them.

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 2nd July 2021, 06:23 PM

Rayner more than has what it takes to be a fantastic leader, I would back her 100%!

I wanted her to go for it last time.

Posted by: Dill Doe 2nd July 2021, 06:27 PM

QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Jul 2 2021, 07:23 PM)

Posted by: common sense 2nd July 2021, 07:43 PM

QUOTE(zenon @ Jul 2 2021, 05:23 PM)

Posted by: Smint 2nd July 2021, 08:26 PM

Why oh why did Rebecca Long Bailey stand instead of her housemate in that leadership election?

The only consolation would be that Rayner is gaining experience as deputy for when she makes the move. Unless she waits for Burnham in a few years.

Posted by: Envoirment 2nd July 2021, 09:37 PM

QUOTE(common sense @ Jul 2 2021, 02:14 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 2nd July 2021, 10:15 PM

A brilliant result, especially for Labour.. although that IMO is testament to Kim Leadbeater's strength as a candidate more than anything else.

Well done to Brett-Butler who actually called it right!

Posted by: Dill Doe 2nd July 2021, 11:30 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jul 2 2021, 09:26 PM)

Posted by: steve201 3rd July 2021, 12:09 AM

QUOTE(common sense @ Jul 2 2021, 02:14 PM)

Posted by: steve201 3rd July 2021, 12:10 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jul 2 2021, 11:15 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 3rd July 2021, 02:07 AM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Jul 3 2021, 12:09 AM)

Posted by: steve201 3rd July 2021, 07:49 AM

Can’t win can they?

Posted by: ElectroBoy 3rd July 2021, 03:04 PM

QUOTE(common sense @ Jul 2 2021, 02:14 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 13th August 2021, 02:40 PM

Some interesting results in yesterday's local byelections.

The most interesting result in England was a near miss for the Lib Dems is Suffolk in a seat they didn't even contest last time. The lack of an Independent or Green candidate (after they got just over half the vote between them last time) made comparisons slightly awkward but it adds to other good results for the Lib Dems in eastern England. The Lib Dems easily held a seat in South Lakeland (Tim Farron's constituency) but it would have been a big surprise if they had managed to lose it. In Tower Hamlets, Aspire (one of a number of splinter groups in that part of London) gained a seat from Labour.

Perhaps more interesting, though, is the fact that the Lib Dems gained two seats in their former Scottish strongholds - Inverness and Caithness. Maybe the party isn't quite as dead in Scotland as is often reported.

Posted by: Smint 13th August 2021, 04:12 PM

Lib Dems has more comebacks than Cher. I think the weak Labour leader helps them.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 13th August 2021, 07:23 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 13 2021, 03:40 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 13th August 2021, 07:28 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Aug 13 2021, 08:23 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th August 2021, 12:51 PM

Among yesterday's results was a Lib Dem gain from the Tories in Rutland. The successful candidate first stood as a Liberal in 1970 and this is the first time he has won

More later (or over the weekend). The byelection for the Wiltshire Police and Crime Commissioner was also held yesterday (after the winning Tory candidate was immediately disqualified for having a criminal record). No result from that yet.

Posted by: Quarantilas 20th August 2021, 01:38 PM

It’s tough to read anything into the Inverness and Caithness results. They’re Single seat STV elections but Scottish Councils are multi-member so seats have a tendency to change hands in by-elections. also there was major changes in who stood for the election in Wick - they had ⅔ of the vote going spare from the last time out with 9% from Labour who weren’t standing and also from the 55% vote share of the Indy who stood down.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th August 2021, 03:13 PM

Rather unexpectedly, Lib Dems and Labour (who were almost level in second place last time) have both been knocked out of the Wiltshire PCC contest by an independent. If Lib Dem and Labour voters gave their second preferences to each other (which would have made sense based on the May result), the Tory will probably win.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th August 2021, 03:59 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 20 2021, 04:13 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th August 2021, 09:46 AM

An interesting result from Medway (Kent) yesterday. In a ward where three of the last four elections (including the last one in 2019) have seen the Tories win two seats and Labour one, Labour gained a seat from the Tories. The Tory vote was down even without a UKIP candidate (who got 14.5% last time). In another Medway byelection, the Tories won easily. Again there was no UKIP candidate but, this time, their vote does seem to have transferred to the Tories.

In Cumbria, the Lib Dems romped home in a straight fight against the Tories in a seat previously held by a popular independent councillor. Before the independent gained the seat, it was held by the Tories.

There was also a byelection in a Tory-held seat in Newport (South Wales) but there is no result yet.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th August 2021, 10:30 AM

The Tories held the Welsh seat although there was a pro-Labour swing.

Posted by: Harve 28th August 2021, 01:48 PM

That Labour gain in Kent was the first (off the Tories at least - not sure about other parties) in a by-election since Keir became leader. Given there are dozens of these a month, that's a bit yikes.

Posted by: Suedehead2 28th August 2021, 07:29 PM

QUOTE(Harve @ Aug 28 2021, 02:48 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 3rd September 2021, 08:51 PM

Nothing very exciting this week. In Cheshire, a Wilmslow Residents candidate won easily, despite a hefty fall in their vote. The Tories, Lib Dems and Greens all gained. There was no Labour candidate.

There were two contests in Calderdale, West Yorkshire. One of them them was in a ward that has generally been solidly Tory but where there was one Independent who won comfortably in 2019. The net effect was that his vote went more or elss equally to the Tories and Labour, so the Tories won. Labour held the other Calderdale contest very easily with 83% of the vote.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th October 2021, 10:47 AM

There will be a by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup following the death of Conservative MP and former NI Secretary James Brokenshire from lung cancer. He had a thumping majority so likely to be a Tory hold, but the last few by-elections have been quite unpredictable.

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th October 2021, 11:02 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Oct 8 2021, 11:47 AM)

Posted by: Rooney 8th October 2021, 12:32 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Oct 8 2021, 11:47 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 8th October 2021, 12:42 PM

Aye, for example, it hasn't had a strong Lib Dem presence in the past but you can imagine that they'll want to try for an outer London middle class seat to build off Chesham and Amersham.

Estimated a decently strong Brexit seat though, it'll be quite a long shot for anyone but the Tories, I feel predictability will return for this one.

Posted by: Smint 8th October 2021, 01:29 PM

I'm hoping for a Lib Dem upset - the Chesham and Amersham swing was huuuuge. The only thing is that the Tories will be fighting harder for this as it wouldn't be such a surprise and they are Uturning on the housing policy which affected C&A.

But with the country going to hell on a handcart with rising covid cases, supply issues, fuel crisis, cost of living the voters are going to respond in some way.

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th October 2021, 01:46 PM

The Lib Dems were some way behind Labour in 2019 and have come third (or worse) from 1992 onwards. It also voted 61% Leave.

Posted by: Smint 8th October 2021, 02:14 PM

Said I'm hoping than expecting - by elections can be very unpredictable. Certainly interesting to see who the main opposition is out of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens and how much the Tories fall.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th October 2021, 05:09 PM

The Tory Police and Crime Commissioner for North Yorkshire has resigned following his comments on the Sarah Everard murder. The law says that a byelection must be held within 35 days which may mean it happens at the beginning of December.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th October 2021, 06:59 PM

There's the likelihood on a by-election in Leicester East after MP Claudia Webbe (formerly Labour, now independent) was found guilty of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-58913968 a woman. If she loses her appeal and is sentenced to more than a year, then she's automatically disbarred from being an MP. If it's less than a year (which is more likely), then there'll be a recall petition, which will trigger a by-election if 10% of the constituency sign the recall petition. Presuming that she doesn't resign of course.

Labour won this seat with 50.8% of the vote in 2019, albeit with a reduced share from 2017, and their majority is only 6k. Interestingly, this isn't the first time the MP for this constituency could lose their seat in ignominious circumstances. Webbe's predecessor was one Keith Vaz.

Posted by: Smint 14th October 2021, 09:45 PM

If she loses appeal I think it's a given she'll be recalled. If they get a better candidate they can win still a la Batley.

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th October 2021, 10:59 AM

As expected, Labour and the Lib Dems will not be contesting the Southend West byelection after the murder of David Amess.

Posted by: Suedehead2 9th November 2021, 05:35 PM

The North Shropshire byelection has been called for 16 December. The Tories clearly don't want either Labour or the Lib Dems building up the momentum required to have a chance of winning.

Posted by: Envoirment 9th November 2021, 07:17 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Nov 9 2021, 05:35 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 9th November 2021, 10:05 PM

The Old Bexley and Sidcup byelection is on 2 December, two weeks before N Shropshire. Labour will be looking for a strong performance to give them a boost for N Shropshire. If Labour perform poorly, the Lib Dems will aim to present themselves as the main challenger in N Shropshire.

Posted by: steve201 9th November 2021, 11:24 PM

Be interesting to see if Labour continues to do well in southern remain seats!

Posted by: chartfridays 10th November 2021, 12:27 AM

The anti-sleaze candidate should it happen might be a shoe-in for Paterson's seat.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th November 2021, 09:07 PM

The Lib Dems clearly think they have a good chance of doing well in North Shropshire. All their effort seems to be concentrated on this seat with Old Bexley & Sidcup being ignored. The gamble is that a poor showing in OB&S (which is highly likely) will not damage the chances of a good performance in Paterson's old seat. Even if the Tories still win them both, a decent showing by their main opponent will be encouraging for those of us who want to see the back of them asap.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th November 2021, 05:01 PM

The candidates for the North Shropshire by-election on December 16th following the resignation of Owen Patterson have been announced -

Independent - Suzie Akers-Smith
UKIP - Andrea Allen
Rejoin EU - Boris Been Bunged
Reclaim - Martin Daubney
Party Party - Russell Dean
Heritage - James Elliot
Monster Raving Loony - Alan "Howling Laud" Hope
Freedom Alliance - Earl Jesse
No description - Yolande Kenward
Green - Duncan Kerr
Liberal Democrats - Helen Morgan
Conservative - Neil Hurst-Shastri
Reform UK - Kirsty Walmsley
Labour - Ben Wood

A bumper 14 candidates at this by-election; I'm not sure why but it seems that in this parliament there's been a lot more candidates/parties willing to put themselves forward for by-elections than usual. Rejoin EU continue their quixotic quest, this time selecting a Boris Johnson impersonator as their vandidate. Martin Daubney is a former Brexit Party MEP, he's now standing for Laurence Fox's Reclaim Party for reasons known only to himself. Continuity Brexit Party is also standing, and Freedom Alliance, a party I thought would peter out once lockdown stopped is running again; presumably news of vaccine passports has spurred them on.

The Tories won this seat with over 50% of the vote in 2019, but given the circumstances of Patterson's resignation, one of the other parties might think they've got a shot. Labour were 2nd in 2019 with 22% and Lib Dems 3rd on 10%

Posted by: Smint 26th November 2021, 05:09 PM

Reform UK is Farage's new outfit too. The right wing members of Shropshire North have plenty of choice which is good for progressives.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd December 2021, 05:20 PM

As of this morning, the Tories were very clear favourites to win the Old Bexley and Sidcup byelection today. They are also favourites to win N Staffs on the 16th, but their odds are lengthening while Lib Dem odds are shortening. According to the bookies, there is a good chance chance of the Tories losing that contest.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 2nd December 2021, 05:45 PM

Given that I have an 100% track record of winning bets on by-elections (I've currently bet on one by-election), I'm considering extending my luck and sticking £10 on the Lib Dems winning the North Staffordshire by-election. They're currently on 2/1 to win, although they were 10/3 to win yesterday, so their odds have been shortening.

Posted by: Iz 💀 3rd December 2021, 02:58 AM

Old Bexley & Sidcup result:

CON 11,189
LAB 6,711
REF 1,432
GRE 830
LIB 647

others negligible

Pretty standard and expected result, turnout is way down* which could be used to make a point about voters being apathetic at current Tory mess rather than voting for anyone to oust them, and the Conservative win is 13 points down from 2019, but otherwise pretty tumbleweed. North Shropshire might, might be a bit more interesting.

*34% which is low compared to Hartlepool, Batley and Chesham which were between 42-52.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 3rd December 2021, 08:29 AM

QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Dec 3 2021, 02:58 AM)

Posted by: Smint 3rd December 2021, 08:46 AM

Personally I'm thinking its disappointing for Labour as its mid term and people tend to vote as a protest. Plus this Government are immoral and shit. Should have been a lot closer especially as the LibDem and Green look like they've voted tactically.

Starmer fails to deliver. Again.

Posted by: Rooney 3rd December 2021, 09:26 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ Dec 3 2021, 08:46 AM)

Posted by: Smint 3rd December 2021, 09:37 AM

The Lib Dems managed to get a massive swing against a Tory who died in tragic circumstances just a few months ago in Chesham and Amersham. I wasn't expecting a win but a bit more of a fight. I agree with the turnout being supressed by covid/ultra cold weather and it's difficult to get out the vote.

Posted by: Rooney 3rd December 2021, 09:48 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ Dec 3 2021, 09:37 AM)

Posted by: Smint 3rd December 2021, 10:06 AM

Sadly I agree it's not atrocious enough to make me think that they would dump Starmer and potentially get a more charismatic, electable leader but neither do I feel that the Tories should be at all worried and they will comfortably win the next General Election especially when the media bring out the attack dogs. This middling result just means eternal Tory governments and that in itself is disappointing.

Posted by: Rooney 3rd December 2021, 01:47 PM

QUOTE(Smint @ Dec 3 2021, 10:06 AM)

Posted by: Grandwicky 3rd December 2021, 01:50 PM

A 10% swing from Tory to Labour is the biggest swing towards Labour in a by election since they were in government (the other bigger swings in he last ten years have been Tory to Lib Dem or in a couple of cases Tory to UKIP) and this is a safe Tory seat and it shows the polls are correct for now and they are recovering from 2019 so what exactly do you want? Deny all the problems Labour are actually trying to fix now and just let the racists back in? Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some)

This is a long game and Labour are slowly fixing the problems they have and only then can really add any meat to the bones of what they've presented so far in terms of what they'd do and then announce more in terms of policy closer to an actual election. People are only starting to listen to them again now after they've shown they will actually respect voters (and news isn't dominated by covid) so what is your big quick fix? Who is the so called charismatic person who will magically turn things around in an instant you have in mind?

Starmer hasn't been perfect but at least he's serious about tackling the problems with Labour and making them a party of government again rather than a protest group full of people who only want to use the Labour brand for their own personal agendas. Going from 26 points behind to being neck and neck at this stage is certainly an achievement and the gloves are off now so unless you live in a twitter bubble I don't see why anyone say he's the problem right now especially as his ratings have recovered to the point that he's actually way ahead of both Miliband and Corbyn at this stage but there is still a lot of work to do and they've been all over the corruption scandals right now so I don't see what the magic solution is here.

Posted by: Smint 3rd December 2021, 03:15 PM

QUOTE(Grandwicky @ Dec 3 2021, 01:50 PM)

Posted by: cider man 3rd December 2021, 05:17 PM

Well done to my party for holding the seat. Must buoy Boris up for Christmas. They shouldn't care about the recent bad polls. It's mid-term. That's what you expect. When it matters the voters will know who's got Brexit done and got the nation vaccinated.

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th December 2021, 12:05 AM

QUOTE(cider man @ Dec 3 2021, 05:17 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 4th December 2021, 12:18 AM

QUOTE(Grandwicky @ Dec 3 2021, 01:50 PM)

A 10% swing from Tory to Labour is the biggest swing towards Labour in a by election since they were in government (the other bigger swings in he last ten years have been Tory to Lib Dem or in a couple of cases Tory to UKIP) and this is a safe Tory seat and it shows the polls are correct for now and they are recovering from 2019 so what exactly do you want? Deny all the problems Labour are actually trying to fix now and just let the racists back in? Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some)

This is a long game and Labour are slowly fixing the problems they have and only then can really add any meat to the bones of what they've presented so far in terms of what they'd do and then announce more in terms of policy closer to an actual election. People are only starting to listen to them again now after they've shown they will actually respect voters (and news isn't dominated by covid) so what is your big quick fix? Who is the so called charismatic person who will magically turn things around in an instant you have in mind?

Starmer hasn't been perfect but at least he's serious about tackling the problems with Labour and making them a party of government again rather than a protest group full of people who only want to use the Labour brand for their own personal agendas. Going from 26 points behind to being neck and neck at this stage is certainly an achievement and the gloves are off now so unless you live in a twitter bubble I don't see why anyone say he's the problem right now especially as his ratings have recovered to the point that he's actually way ahead of both Miliband and Corbyn at this stage but there is still a lot of work to do and they've been all over the corruption scandals right now so I don't see what the magic solution is here.

Posted by: cider man 4th December 2021, 08:53 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 4 2021, 12:05 AM)

Posted by: T Boy 4th December 2021, 01:27 PM

QUOTE(cider man @ Dec 4 2021, 08:53 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th December 2021, 02:24 PM

QUOTE(cider man @ Dec 4 2021, 08:53 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th December 2021, 08:33 PM

The Lib Dems are now narrow favourites to win N Shropshire next week.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 8th December 2021, 11:17 PM

Given the absolute shitshow that the government are currently embroiled in I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it Simon, and am definitely here for it. Would make Boris' Christmas very awkward!

Posted by: Envoirment 8th December 2021, 11:55 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 8 2021, 08:33 PM)

Posted by: Christmasteve201 8th December 2021, 11:56 PM

QUOTE(Grandwicky @ Dec 3 2021, 01:50 PM)

A 10% swing from Tory to Labour is the biggest swing towards Labour in a by election since they were in government (the other bigger swings in he last ten years have been Tory to Lib Dem or in a couple of cases Tory to UKIP) and this is a safe Tory seat and it shows the polls are correct for now and they are recovering from 2019 so what exactly do you want? Deny all the problems Labour are actually trying to fix now and just let the racists back in? Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some)

This is a long game and Labour are slowly fixing the problems they have and only then can really add any meat to the bones of what they've presented so far in terms of what they'd do and then announce more in terms of policy closer to an actual election. People are only starting to listen to them again now after they've shown they will actually respect voters (and news isn't dominated by covid) so what is your big quick fix? Who is the so called charismatic person who will magically turn things around in an instant you have in mind?

Starmer hasn't been perfect but at least he's serious about tackling the problems with Labour and making them a party of government again rather than a protest group full of people who only want to use the Labour brand for their own personal agendas. Going from 26 points behind to being neck and neck at this stage is certainly an achievement and the gloves are off now so unless you live in a twitter bubble I don't see why anyone say he's the problem right now especially as his ratings have recovered to the point that he's actually way ahead of both Miliband and Corbyn at this stage but there is still a lot of work to do and they've been all over the corruption scandals right now so I don't see what the magic solution is here.

Posted by: Suedehead2 10th December 2021, 06:56 AM

The Tories were defending six seats last night in council byelections. I have seen the results from three of them and the Tories lost them all, two to Labour (including one in true-blue Bracknell) and one to the Lib Dems.

Posted by: Suedehead2 10th December 2021, 01:43 PM

The other by-elections were in Tonbridge & Malling in Kent. Three Tory defences and one Independent. The Tories gained the Ind seat. The Lib Dems might well have won it without the intervention of a Green candidate. Of the other three, the Tories held one and lost one to each of the Lib Dems and Greens. I don’t think the Tories have had as bad a night as that all year.

Posted by: MajIzstica 💀 16th December 2021, 01:48 PM

Well, if anything, North Shropshire is showing just how futile a "progressive alliance" would be. Labour and Lib Dem activists tearing shreds out of each other over Twitter - though numbers and media talk do seem to favour Lib Dem as the "correct" choice.

I predict the Tory squeaking home within 3,000.

Posted by: RabbitFurCoat 16th December 2021, 01:59 PM

Having not really paid any attention, how come the alternative has changed from 2019? Whenever I see anything it is as you suggest, people saying to vote Lib Dem as the only chance to stop and others saying but Labour are the choice as they were a comfortable second last time. Is it just somewhere that normal tory voters will only move away if unsatisfied to a party that isn't Labour or is there something specific that's cause the swing?

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 16th December 2021, 02:03 PM

Can see you the Tories holding this by virtue of a split Lib Drm / Labour alliance.

The comment on futility of a progressive alliance is wrong, the idea is it let's parties agree where to stand down to avoid this situation wherethry both think they have claim as best alternative

Posted by: MajIzstica 💀 16th December 2021, 02:05 PM

QUOTE(RabbitFurCoat @ Dec 16 2021, 01:59 PM)

Posted by: MajIzstica 💀 16th December 2021, 02:11 PM

QUOTE(ChristmasFridays @ Dec 16 2021, 02:03 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th December 2021, 04:04 PM

It really is infuriating that Labour seem to have stepped up their campaign (on social media at least) in the last few days. It is obvious from the bookies' odds that the Lib Dems are the only challengers to the Tories, but it seems that some Labour supporters would prefer a Tory win to a Lib Dem win. To be fair, I have also seen Labour supporters despairing at what they are doing and urging people to vote Lib Dem.

As well as Labour's sudden interest in the seat, the Lib Dems also have to contend with the fact that broadcasters have given the Tories two party political broadcasts this week and Labour one. The other parties haven't been granted any.

Posted by: Smint 16th December 2021, 04:11 PM

It is infuriating and will mean the Tories will continue to be in power ad infinitum causing great misery and despair for the most unfortunate in society. And our oppositions will have done nothing to stop it.

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 16th December 2021, 10:31 PM

Anyone know what time the by-election result is supposed to be announced?

Posted by: MajIzstica 💀 16th December 2021, 10:54 PM

Based off Old Bexley 2 weeks ago, about 3 hours from now, though local factors may vary.

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 16th December 2021, 11:17 PM

QUOTE(MajIzstica 💀 @ Dec 16 2021, 10:54 PM)

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 16th December 2021, 11:19 PM

https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1471574262456668172

Posted by: Botchia 16th December 2021, 11:19 PM

I hope I'm wrong but I feel the Tories will just about hold on now :/

Posted by: Doctor Blind 17th December 2021, 12:17 AM

QUOTE(ChristmasFridays @ Dec 16 2021, 10:31 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind 17th December 2021, 01:48 AM

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 17th December 2021, 02:09 AM

It's a protest vote. Nothing more.

A lib Dem special that will go back to Tories next election.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 17th December 2021, 02:28 AM

Posted by: MajIzstica 💀 17th December 2021, 04:36 AM

Posted by: slowdown73 17th December 2021, 04:39 AM

Fantastic news re the by-election outcome. So glad the won! This is sweet revenge for the Tories abysmal management of covid and covid party breaches.

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th December 2021, 06:34 AM

That's a fantastic result! I had prepared myself for the disappointment of just missing out; a 6,000 majority is well beyond what I hoped for

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th December 2021, 06:40 AM

Before the Tories blame the result on their supporters staying at home, it is worth pointing out that the total votes cast for the Lib Dems and Labour combined is 3,500 higher than in the general election.

Posted by: ChRiMbO LeG PiPe 17th December 2021, 07:04 AM

Thought I would never see the day in this one party state!!

Posted by: cider man 17th December 2021, 07:45 AM

Mid-term blip. Nothing more. Ages to go until the next GE election, which is what really matters. Am not unduly worried as Starmer is unelectable.

Posted by: Chez Reindeer 17th December 2021, 07:52 AM

Great news, anything to keep piling the pressure on Johnson.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 17th December 2021, 08:24 AM

Posted by: Botchia 17th December 2021, 08:25 AM

Stunning victory for the Lib Dems wow! I thought it would be much much closer than that and expected the Tories to hang on after the Covid stuff this week and Labour making an effort with campaigning.

Posted by: Botchia 17th December 2021, 08:28 AM

QUOTE(cider man @ Dec 17 2021, 07:45 AM)

Posted by: slowdown73 17th December 2021, 08:33 AM

QUOTE(cider man @ Dec 17 2021, 07:45 AM)

Posted by: MajIzstica 💀 17th December 2021, 08:42 AM

QUOTE(Botchia @ Dec 17 2021, 08:28 AM)

A mid term blip It's an ultra safe seat that's voted Conservative for nearly 200 years. Serious alarm bells should be ringing with the Tories!

Posted by: Quarantilas 17th December 2021, 08:49 AM

I mean it’ll probably bounce right back to them at the next GE but yeah this is a nice wound in the interim.

Everything that helps to undermine the Tories and continue their infighting spiral helps

Posted by: Smint 17th December 2021, 09:30 AM

Excellent news - normally on By Election nights, I have a quick peak at the result when I wake up to use the loo at 4am. Sometimes like Hartlepool that can lead to feeling dread but this was excellent news.

I am delighted at the tactical voting too - almost too much as yet again shows no real love for Starmer and his cynical, calculated leadership style. Ed Davey on the understand with virtually no coverage whatsoever tends to impress with his more authentic kinder brand of politics.

Mid term blip - maybe for the Conservatives but certainly not for Johnson. Apparently the imbecilic Peppa Pig and the lockdown parties came up on doorsteps. He is a laughing stock and is a marked man but hopefully he doesn't go quietly and causes damage to the brand.

Posted by: Smint 17th December 2021, 10:08 AM

Oh and what was pleasing about this vote was that there wasn't a lurch to the hard/far right despite there being plenty of options for people to do. Reform (what the short lived extremely successful Farage's ex Brexit party merged into) got 3.7% of the vote, the original UKIP, who are presumably even more extreme nowadays, only got 1% of the vote plus ultra tosser Laurence Fox's outfit, Reclaim only got 1% of the vote. For a leave seat that's pretty impressive.

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th December 2021, 11:08 AM

QUOTE(cider man @ Dec 17 2021, 07:45 AM)

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 17th December 2021, 11:17 AM

Truly glorious 🥰

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 17th December 2021, 12:08 PM

One really interesting thing that should worry the Tories is that a lot of Con-Lib Dem switchers were talking about the cuts in services. Those of us in Labour areas who were hit harder during the coalition and ever since have been moaning about this ever since, but it looks as though Con voters might finally be appreciating the Lib Dems moderating I fluence in the coalition now we've had nearly 7 years of outright Tory rule.

If that's genuinely the case it's a breakthrough. A Lib Dem Tory coalition is marginally better for the left than outright Tory rule. The issue the Lon Dems are going to have with this new base is it makes very hard any coalition with Labour.

Posted by: Envoirment 17th December 2021, 04:36 PM

Happy the Lib Dems won. Hopefully it means the Lib Dems will be able to make good gains in the next general election and take a number of seats from the Conservatives.

Posted by: Smint 17th December 2021, 05:02 PM

Raab and Redwood would be the very top of my list in Lib Dem/Tory marginals. Evil men.

Posted by: slowdown73 17th December 2021, 07:14 PM

Until recently, I thought Starmer was unelectable but this week the party have been fighting back and show some grit. Not sure if Labour will win outright at the next election but I expect they will make ground and the Tories will lose most if not all of their majority. Remember, the last election was very different to normal as essentially it was about Brexit and now we’ve moved on from that, voting will differ next time.

Posted by: Rooney 17th December 2021, 08:35 PM

Honestly, Labour are never going to stop the Tories if people bang on about bloody Starmer. Labour were never going to win this seat. I think people mis the point deliberately. No matter what Labour's vote share was in 2019, this is never a seat Labour are going to be able to win. But Labour voters can switch to Lib Dems and hope enough Tory voters follow as well.

I think the by-election showed that people are starting to get fed up of the Tories. Question now probably is whether they have another election win in them after they kick Boris out before it. But it does seem like people are starting to wake up a little bit.

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th December 2021, 09:46 PM

Back in the 1980s, the BBC would have a programme covering parliamentary byelections. They would involve a lot of discussion while waiting for the result, often going on for hours, with some analysis after the result was declared. One of the great things about those programmes was that the politicians would often say things they wouldn't usually say, The assumption seemed to be that the sort of person watching into the small hours would see through the bullshit so they might as well be more honest.

The programmes would often end with a projection of the House of Commons if the swing in the byelection happened across the country. We all knew it was just for a laugh, but it was often a source of great amusement. In that spirit, I have done a couple projections on electoralcalculus.co.uk. The first was based on a straight 34% swing from Tory to Lib Dem with no change in the Labour vote. That gave a Lib Dem majority roughly equal to the Tories' current majority. The second was based on the actual changes in the vote share in N Shropshire. That gave a Lib Dem majority of about 400 In both case, the Tories were left with no seats at all.

Posted by: ChristmasFridays 18th December 2021, 12:49 AM

Those by elections normally still happen. Curious the Boris Broadcasting Corporation didn't do one last night.

Posted by: Smint 18th December 2021, 03:53 PM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Dec 17 2021, 08:35 PM)

Posted by: Christmasteve201 22nd December 2021, 12:07 AM

Well said Smint!

Posted by: Brett-Butler 7th January 2022, 05:16 PM

The Southend West by-election will take place on 3 February following the murder of David Amess. As the other major parties have stood down out of the respect, the Tories will be up against candidates from UKIP, Constitution Party and an ex-Britain First member. Should be a formality that the Tories win this seat.

There will also now be a by-election in Birmingham Erdington following the sudden death of Labour MP Jack Dromey, the husband of former deputy leader Harriet Harman. Labour won this seat with just over 50% of the vote, with the Conservatives second with a majority of 3,600 votes. Birmingham is strongly Labour, only 2 of the 10 seats in the city aren't held by them (Northfield & Sutton Coalfield, both Tories), although this particular seat voted over 60%+ for Brexit, so if that dividing line still exists, it could be an upset. But for now I'd predict a strong Labour hold.

Posted by: Suedehead2 7th January 2022, 05:27 PM

One interesting thing about the seat is that all three main parties have fielded the same candidate in each election since 2010. There can't be many seats where that is the case.

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th January 2022, 10:46 AM

The net gains/losses in local authority byelections since last May are...

Con -12
Lab -5
LibD +12
Grn +13
UKIP -1
Ind +1
Oth/Ind -8

That includes two byelections held this year so far, a Lib Dem gain from Labour on 6 Jan (unsurprisingly, the turnout was pitiful) and a Green gain from the Tories on the 13th. The figures are for principal local authorities only, i.e. they do not include Parish / Town councils or the two Lib Dem gains in parliamentary byelections.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 3rd February 2022, 07:11 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 7 2022, 06:16 PM)

Posted by: Izzy 💀 4th February 2022, 01:38 AM

Southend West: CON HOLD

Conservative: 12,792 (86.1%)
Psychedelic Movement: 512 (3.4%)
UKIP: 400 (2.7%)
English Democrats: 320 (2.2%)
Others: 834

Turnout: 24.0% (down 43.4%)

Turnout rock bottom as expected, this was literally the worst voting ballot ever if you're left of Rees-Mogg. Even the psychedelic guy was pretty sus. I'm a 'vote at every opportunity' person but this would have really tested me. For understandable reasons though.

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th February 2022, 06:35 AM

Yes, I would have been somewhat conflicted too. Before the last six weeks or so, I might have held my nose and voted for the Tory (although I would probably have bottled out in the end). By now, there is no way I could have done that but I would still have felt obliged to turn up. I would probably have joined the more than 1,000 others who spoilt their ballot paper (in my case, probably by leaving it blank).

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th February 2022, 05:20 PM

A winning candidate with a sense of decency in last night's circumstances might have thanked Labour, Lib Dems and Greens for standing aside in Southend West. The winning Tory candidate, desperate to feel at home among a bunch of lying charlatans asap, claimed that her majority shows that people like the Tory government.

Posted by: Smint 4th February 2022, 05:32 PM

What the ACTUAL? When her opponents were basically a collection of facists... And anyway, it's completely untrue. She could have said that a year ago but the times have changed!

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 4th February 2022, 05:44 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 4 2022, 05:20 PM)

Posted by: Quarantilas 4th February 2022, 06:12 PM

Spoiled ballots came in second, no mainstream party stood and she bested a couple of Nazis. Calm down hun

Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th February 2022, 10:01 PM

The candidates for the Birmingham Erdington by-election following the death of Jack Dromey, to be held on 3rd March, are -

• Robert Alden – Conservative Party
• David Bishop - Militant Bus-Pass Elvis Party
• Jack Brookes – Reform Party.
• Lee Dargue - Liberal Democrats
• Paulette Hamilton – Labour Party
• Siobhan Harper-Nunes – Green Party
• Clifton Holmes - Independent
• Michael Lutwyche – Independent
• Mel Mbondiah - Christian Peoples Alliance
• Dave Nellist – Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC)
• Thomas O'Rourke - Independent
• The Good Knight Sir NosDa - Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Posted by: Smint 8th February 2022, 10:39 PM

I predict a comfortable Labour win but the Tory vote will be depressingly high.

Posted by: Smint 3rd March 2022, 09:46 AM

By-election tonight in Brimingham Erdington and the Labour candidate, Paulette Hamilton, appears to have made some controversial comments a few years back and the right wing press and Tory MPs are asking for her to be deslected. I personally think it's an overblown way to smear her, the comments were a bit silly but an apology should suffice from her.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-candidate-queried-if-e2-80-98an-uprising-e2-80-99-would-help-black-people-more-than-democracy/ar-AAUwB9n?ocid=uxbndlbing

This may eat into her vote slightly. I expect a win for Labour but not a big one and certainly nothing to worry the Tories. I live in hope to be proved wrong though!

Posted by: Brett-Butler 3rd March 2022, 08:40 PM

The Tories' odds have been shortening during the day, albeit Labour are still the overwhelming favourites. Labour will still win, but it could end up being a more marginal win than I originally thought. Interestingly, the current odds seem to be hinting that TUSC could finish third and hold on to their deposit, which if true could have eaten in to Labour's win.

Posted by: Smint 4th March 2022, 12:32 AM

Turnout shocking for a competitive by-election (unlike Southend W say)

Birmingham Erdington parliamentary by-election, turnout:

27.0% (-26.3)
17,016 votes cast

Posted by: Smint 4th March 2022, 01:08 AM

Birmingham Erdington, by-election result:

LAB: 55.5% (+5.2)
CON: 36.3% (-3.8)
TUSC: 2.1% (+2.1)
REFUK: 1.7% (-2.4)
GRN: 1.4% (-0.4)
LDEM: 1.0% (-2.7)

Slight swing to Labour. Would it have been bigger without the Labour candidate controversy? Maybe a little but not by much.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 11th April 2022, 03:24 PM

Almost certain to be a by-election in Wakefield following this shocking news -

Posted by: Suedehead2 11th April 2022, 03:30 PM

It had been a Labour seat for decades before 2019 although often with a fairly small majority.

Posted by: Suedehead2 11th April 2022, 04:28 PM

Imran Ahmad Khan's selection for the last election was very late. The previous Tory candidate, who had stood in the previous two elections, stood down after Islamophobic and misogynist tweets were uncovered.

Posted by: Suedehead2 11th April 2022, 09:16 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 11 2022, 04:24 PM)

Posted by: Smint 11th April 2022, 09:37 PM

And isn't there likely to be a juicy one in Somerton and Frome with David Warburton's cocaine and sexual abuse scandal? Easy Lib Dem win there.

Posted by: zenon 11th April 2022, 11:57 PM

Don't rule out Reigate too.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/11/tory-mp-blasted-for-defending-colleague-who-sexually-assaulted-15-year-old-boy-16447741/

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th April 2022, 04:22 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 11 2022, 04:24 PM)

Posted by: Envoirment 14th April 2022, 07:18 PM

Hopefully Labour will win the by-election with a decent sized vote swing.

Posted by: Suedehead2 24th April 2022, 04:16 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 14 2022, 05:22 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 30th April 2022, 01:51 PM

Another one bites the dust. Neil Parish has resigned as MP for Tiverton after it was revealed he was the MP caught watching porn in the Commons chamber. Before he was outed as the offender, he actually went on Gammon News to discuss the matter.

Logically, Labour will concentrate on Wakefield and ignore Tiverton with the Lib Dems reciprocating. Labour came second in Tiverton last time but have never been anywhere near winning. The Lib Dems came close in 1997.

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th May 2022, 05:57 PM

The Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton byelections will be on 23 June. It seems pretty certain the Labour and Lib Dems will each concentrate on just one of them.

Posted by: Smint 17th May 2022, 06:02 PM

I'm going to predict it now - Lib Dems win Honiton and Tiverton. Conservatives hold Wakefield

Posted by: Smint 17th May 2022, 06:02 PM

And looks like there may be yet ANOTHER one coming very soon....

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/17/tory-mp-arrested-on-suspicion-of-and-banned-from-commons-reports

Posted by: Brett-Butler 25th May 2022, 05:34 PM

The candidates for the Wakefield by-election on the 23rd June, held following Imran Khan's conviction for sexual assault, have been announced -

Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative)
Akef Akbar (Ind)
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance)
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance)
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony)
Jayda Fransen (Ind)
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP)
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party)
Therese Hirst (English Democrats)
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party)
Simon Lightwood (Labour)
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem)
Ashley Routh (Green)
Ashlea Simon (Britain First)
Chris Walsh (Reform UK)

Labour lost this seat in 2019, so would be hoping to win this back given the circumstances of the election, mixed with the Tories' growing unpopularity. The Northern Independence party stands its first candidate in a Westminster by-election (it didn't feature on the ballot paper for the Hartlepool by-election owing to an admin error, so its candidate was listed as an independent). The far-right Britain First are standing, alongside one of its former leaders. Freedom Alliance still seem to be running candidates, long after their main raison d'etre has been declared moot.

I'm predicting a Labour victory, albeit not as strong a victory as you'd expect given the circumstances.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 25th May 2022, 05:38 PM

The candidates for the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on 23rd of June have also been announced, held due to Conservative MP Neil Parish loving tractors a little to much:

Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party)
Andy Foan (Reform UK)
Richard Foord (Lib Dem)
Helen Hurford (Conservative)
Liz Pole (Labour)
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain)
Ben Walker (UKIP)
Gill Westcott (Green)

A smaller candidate list here, although the far-right anti-Muslim, anti-Catholic For Britain are running a candiate here. The Tories won by 60% here in 2019, even with a concerted campaign by the Lib Dems I still predict they'll hold it.

Posted by: Steve201 26th May 2022, 11:53 PM

What’s the Heritage Party?

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th May 2022, 06:46 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 27 2022, 12:53 AM)

Posted by: Rooney 27th May 2022, 08:21 AM

Wakefield by-election will be the biggie - even if Labour lose it, you would hope it would be a bit more of a closely run contest and give hope for 2024.

Posted by: Smint 4th June 2022, 10:43 PM

One by election poll for Wakefield has Labour with TWENTY points ahead of Tories 48-28. Considering it's a very Brexity town - 2 to 1 were in favour of leaving EU, that's very impressive if Labour win the seat with anything like that kind of lead and would give Johnson a real scare.

Posted by: Smint 23rd June 2022, 05:30 PM

According to the Bookies and word on the ground, Tories should lose both by elections today....of course Johnson has said he won't resign but hope that does enough for more manoeuvres against him Hope when I wake up to use the loo during night cam go to bed a bit happier

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd June 2022, 07:38 PM

The Tory spin will be that Labour did badly in Tiverton & Honiton.

Posted by: cider man 23rd June 2022, 08:18 PM

All Governments become unpopular and lose mid-term by elections. This is nothing new. The Tories will be returned to power with an increased majority in 2024. I'm confident of it. They'd be foolish to dump Boris too as he's a proven vote winner.

Posted by: Rooney 23rd June 2022, 09:07 PM

QUOTE(cider man @ Jun 23 2022, 09:18 PM)

Posted by: Jessie Where 23rd June 2022, 09:16 PM

QUOTE(cider man @ Jun 23 2022, 09:18 PM)

Posted by: Izzy 💀☄ 24th June 2022, 04:23 AM

RESULTS:

Posted by: Suedehead2 24th June 2022, 05:35 AM

The Tory Party Chair Oliver Dowden has resigned. In his letter he offered continuing support for the party but, unusually for a resignation letter, not Johnson himself.

Posted by: Smint 24th June 2022, 06:34 AM

Really? Wow Dowden is one of the most odious, sycophantic, borderline far right assholes in the party. I know there are quite a lot of then mind!

Posted by: Rooney 24th June 2022, 08:41 AM

QUOTE(Smint @ Jun 24 2022, 07:34 AM)

Posted by: Jessie Where 24th June 2022, 11:58 AM

At this point I'm wondering how many horcruxes he must have left.

Posted by: Envoirment 24th June 2022, 02:01 PM

Great results. The Lib Dems swing is amazing. I hope at the next GE that Labour and Lib Dems make an alliance. They could both gain quite well if they did.

Boris still not resigning Not complaining though. The longer he stays the more damage he'll continue to do.

Posted by: Skankhunt43 24th June 2022, 04:07 PM

GET THE EVIL TOEIES OUR AND THAT VILE SLIME BLOJO, WHO SHOULD NEVER EVEE HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE CLOSE TO DOWNING STREET EEEEVER IN HISTOEY, LET ALONE BE PM!!!

I love the karma though. Neolibwral extreme centrists and Tories teñling us what would happen undee Corbyn ... and all they claimed would happen is happening under that VILE DETESTABLE BEAST'S refime

Posted by: Chez Wombat 24th June 2022, 04:58 PM

Some great news to wake up to, and canceling out the other significant news at least! I really hope Johnson can stay on now, this is becoming pretty funny to watch.

Posted by: Brer 24th June 2022, 05:08 PM

This being Labour's first gain in a by-election since 2012, lord

Better late than never.

Posted by: slowdown73 24th June 2022, 06:54 PM

Excellent results in both by-elections. Tories will certainly lose their working majority at next GE particularly if Johnson stays which I hope he does despite the fact I despise him.

Posted by: Smint 24th June 2022, 07:34 PM

Yes and both Tory candidates were pretty odious (actually pretty standard for their party).

Both seats voted for Brexit especially Wakefield (which I thought would be closer and happy to admit I was wrong) and the architect has been roundly told to get packing!

Posted by: Steve201 24th June 2022, 11:17 PM

Still think the tories will win the next GE though unfort, Boris will just hold out to the full five years so things will have moved on enough for the average idiot voter to forget the parties and realise Starmer hasn’t offered anything so we will be in 1992 territory imo.

Posted by: Izzy 💀☄ 24th June 2022, 11:40 PM

Yes please do give us Tory cope, I'd love to see them convince themselves that nothing is wrong so they can sleepwalk into electoral oblivion.

Posted by: cider man 26th June 2022, 03:38 PM

Boris has said that he intends to remain leader and win the next election and the one after that and stay PM in to the 2030's. So there you have it folks. Think positive Boris.


EDIT. There was apparently fury in the Tory party after his remarks and he's now been forced to say he was joking.

Posted by: cider man 26th June 2022, 03:43 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jun 25 2022, 12:17 AM)

Posted by: ElectroBoy 2nd September 2022, 01:01 PM

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th September 2022, 08:56 PM

Rosie Cooper, Labour MP for West Lancashire, will be resigning her seat to take up a job as chair of an NHS foundation trust. She had a majority of nearly 8,500 in 2019 so it should be an easy hold for Labour, although the turnout may mean a lower majority in numerical terms. I wonder if there will be people trying to get Andy Burnham to stand.

Posted by: Smint 20th September 2022, 10:16 PM

That would be pretty amazing if Burnham did. Hunch says he won't just yet as may reflect badly on ongoing Mayorship

Worried about low turnout but should be an easy Labour win

Posted by: Suedehead2 25th September 2022, 08:53 AM

A slightly weird byelection for Gwynedd council on Thursday. In May, the Plaid Cymru candidate was returned unopposed, but he didn't sign his acceptance of office and was, consequently, disqualified. He was no0minated again for the byelection and the Lib Dems also chose to put up a candidate. The PC candidate won with just over 95% of the vote on what appears to have been a pitiful turnout. Let's hope he remembers to sign the paperwork this time.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th October 2022, 11:43 AM

With all the misery the Tories are enduring in the opinion polls at the moment, it's interesting to note that they gained seats in two local by-elections that were held last night in Leicester & Epping Forest. In both cases, it was overwhelmingly local issues that lead to the Tory win. In Leicester, the Labour candidate was a supporter of the Hindu-nationalist party in India, which went down poorly in a ward with a largely Muslim population. In Epping Forest, the Green Party councillor lost his seat after failing to turn up to meetings for 6 months, and ran again in a straight run-off against the Tory candidate.

The Tories are still down circa-net 20 local seats since the start of the year, but I'm sure they'll take any win where they can.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th October 2022, 12:08 PM

Next May's local elections may well be terrible for the Tories. Conveniently for them, most of the press will be concentrating on something else over the weekend following the elections.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 19th October 2022, 09:12 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 14 2022, 01:08 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 2nd December 2022, 07:57 AM

I'd almost forgotten the City Of Chester by-election was happening, but it was in an already Labour seat with a good majority so nothing shocking. First Parliamentary-level test for Sunak though. And this was a marginal as recently as 2015.

Results:
LAB 17,309
CON 6,335
LIB 2,335
GRE 787
REF 773

Turnout similar to the Wakefield election from June. Clearly conservatives switched or stayed home. Swing is 14% which is good enough to get a strong majority, could be better but I'm not drawing big conclusions from this either way.

Stretford and Urmston up next on 15 December, and that one's a real Labour safe seat so let's root for a complete blowout.

Posted by: Smint 2nd December 2022, 10:22 AM

Turnout was low 41% and although a good win for Labour shows not a huge positive enthusiasm for the Starmer project. I reckon majority/swing/turnout would have been much higher if Truss was still PM.

Best news is the Reform UK, much lauded by the vile right wing media did not increase their vote share by more than just a trickle. Long may that last.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd December 2022, 10:24 AM

A turnout of 41% for a December byelection isn't too bad. The Lib Dem vote went up a bit which is quite surprising given the total lack of a campaign.

Posted by: zenon 2nd December 2022, 06:55 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 14 2022, 02:08 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd December 2022, 08:20 PM

QUOTE(zenon @ Dec 2 2022, 06:55 PM)

Posted by: Silas 2nd December 2022, 11:40 PM

I read there was like 8 forms of acceptable non-Passport/Driving License IDs and 4 of which are only open to the over 65s. Absolutely ridiculous

Only slight super faint silver lining is that they took the national entitlement card for Scotland which is also given to young folks for their free bus travel

Posted by: Iz 💀 16th December 2022, 05:27 AM

25% turnout and some of the lowest vote totals I've ever seen for Stretford and Urmston.

LAB 12,828
CON 2,922
GRE 789
LIB 659
REF 650

I hear Manchester is just an ice field right now or something.

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th December 2022, 06:29 AM

Something like a 25% turnout which is not surprising with a combination of cold weather, no doubt about the result and people concentrating on Christmas.

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th December 2022, 06:45 AM

A local byelection in Wigan yesterday saw a turnout of just 5.3% (468 votes). This is believed to be a post-war low.

Posted by: Smint 16th December 2022, 06:07 PM

Still a decent 10.5 swing to Labour in a very safe seat. Never heard of either Stretford or Urmston in my life must admit and thought I'd heard of all the constituencies in the UK by now!

Posted by: Silas 16th December 2022, 06:12 PM

It’s not the nicest area of Trafford tbh but also not the worst. it’s where Old Trafford is located and also covers Trafford park and the Trafford centre. Skirts around sale and altrincham so defo solidly safe die in the wool labour with some new gentrification along the water with Salford being where the LibDems and a couple Tories creep in

Posted by: Brett-Butler 28th January 2023, 09:28 AM

The candidates for the West Lancashire by-election, which takes place on 9th February following the resignation of Labour MP Rosie Cooper, have been announced -

Liberal Democrats - Jo Barton
Green - Peter Cranie
Labour - Ashley Dalton
Monster Raving Loony - Howling Laud Hope
Reform UK - Jonathan Kay
Conservative - Mike Prendergast

Unlike a lot of by-elections in the last few years, there aren't as many parties fielding candidates, and there's only one party there that you could say that's a group of oddballs and weirdos, but that's enough about Reform UK.

Will probably be a rather boring result, with Labour likely winning again with over half the votes.

Posted by: Iz 💀 10th February 2023, 03:14 AM

West Lancashire by-election results:

LAB 14,068
CON 5,794
REF 994
LIB 918
GRE 646
OMRLP 210

Official majority changed from 8,336 to... 8,326. Neat. Though of course that does indicate a Labour swing due to lower turnout. Reform also maintaining their percentage from 2019.

Posted by: Brer 9th June 2023, 06:55 PM

Saw some rumours that Alok Sharma was going to be given a peerage from Boris' resignation honours which would have given me a by-election to vote in. Alas, not the case. (Apparently there aren't going to be any by-elections triggered by the list).

Unfortunately while researching this I've also discovered that the boundary changes for the next general election are putting me in a new seat which is expected to be more Tory leaning than my current one. I fear I've missed my only chance to ever have a non Tory MP that I voted for. Sigh. (although I don't think it's quite a 'safe' seat still)

Posted by: Brett-Butler 9th June 2023, 07:08 PM

Boris Johnson has resigned. There will be a by-election to Uxbridge. Ruddy hell.

Posted by: Brer 9th June 2023, 07:13 PM

Nadine Dorries has also resigned, didn't see that until after making my last post!

Posted by: Chez Wombat 9th June 2023, 07:13 PM

Well I guess that's retribution after swiftly rewarding all his cronies apart from Nadine Dorries, who clearly was so pissed off she wasn't there she also went

Anyway, Celebration time this weekend!

Posted by: Big Fat Sue 9th June 2023, 07:19 PM

Yassss!! He didn't want to face the ignomious end of losing his seat! Vile far right BEAST. He has done immense damage to this country, as has the Russian far right chrony, Farage.

Posted by: Silas 9th June 2023, 07:22 PM

f***ing wonderful news

Posted by: Big Fat Sue 9th June 2023, 07:25 PM

CEELEBRATION TIME COME ON!!!

Posted by: Brer 9th June 2023, 07:39 PM

🦀🦀🦀 boris is gone 🦀🦀🦀



🦀🦀🦀 dorries is gone 🦀🦀🦀

Posted by: neill2407 9th June 2023, 07:56 PM

Great news about Johnston, it was only a matter of time before all his lies and misleading were found out. People like him think they are invisible and can misuse their position of power. However, Sunak should not have been left off the hook as he was part of that shambolic administration.

Posted by: Suedehead2 9th June 2023, 09:50 PM

Anyone else think the rancid binbag of custard will attempt to stand in the Mid Beds by-election?

Posted by: Jade 9th June 2023, 09:52 PM

I was sad to hear about Caroline Lucas yesterday but today's round of resignation news is a whole lot better

Posted by: uhsting 9th June 2023, 10:19 PM

Have a safe Uber ride home Boris!

Posted by: Smint 9th June 2023, 11:05 PM

Ewww at Jacob Rees Mogg Knighted and Andrea Jenkyns and Priti Patel becoming dames. At least nothing for Dorries and his wandering hands father!

Posted by: Big Fat Sue 9th June 2023, 11:27 PM

Shows what a rotten system we have for THAT THING, thst haunted Victorian creaking relic, to be knighted

Posted by: neill2407 10th June 2023, 12:02 AM

I find it incredible that Johnstown’s honours list mainly dedicated to his cronies was still allowed to go ahead in light of the Covid committee’s findings. It was clear all along that he misled parliament and yet the government have still endorsed his honours list. I cannot think of any other profession where this would be allowed if someone had been suspended or struck off for wrong doing. Yet again, another example of one rule for M.P.s and another for everyone else.

Posted by: Big Fat Sue 10th June 2023, 12:20 AM

It's just the evil Tories treating the country like their Etonian land, with us their serfs, as usual. Par for the course for those evil turds.

Posted by: Iz 💀 10th June 2023, 12:23 AM

Excellent. I didn't quite see this coming but with the ramping up of news stories about finally holding politicians accountable for the things they do and say... great news.

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 9 2023, 09:50 PM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 10th June 2023, 12:25 AM

Anyway, Labour for Uxbridge and Lib Dems to pull off a North Shropshire/Tiverton in Mid Beds eh? Ideally they'll be scheduled around the same time again, that worked really well with the Tiverton-Wakefield duo as Labour just won't focus on the unwinnable seat.

Posted by: Suedehead2 10th June 2023, 01:15 PM

And another one's gone

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-quits-nigel-adams-by-election-boris-johnson-b2355177.html

Posted by: Envoirment 10th June 2023, 05:45 PM

3 by-elections? *_* I hope the public vote accordingly and Labour/Lib dems gain seats!

Posted by: neill2407 10th June 2023, 07:59 PM

Now Johnston has been formally found guilty of misleading parliament, this can only add to the level of anger and distrust towards the government and hopefully see a further slide in support and boost for the opposition.

Posted by: steve201 11th June 2023, 09:32 AM

So is there only 3 hero’s who have resigned? Was hoping this would trigger a GE earlier!

Most of the ones who have resigned are likely gonna struggle to win their seat in a GE anyway so not maybe as heroic as they make out!

Posted by: ElectroBoy 11th June 2023, 11:15 AM

QUOTE(steve201 @ Jun 11 2023, 10:32 AM)

Posted by: Iz 💀 11th June 2023, 11:52 AM

My thinking is that assuming they're all held on the same day (reasonably likely?) that Tories retain Selby, it's a N Yorkshire seat which doesn't really have any chance of a Lib Dem shock surge, and in actuality this one also going makes it more likely that Mid Beds and Uxbridge fall away to Lib and Lab respectively. So Nigel Adams could have stayed, as could have Dorries, but they're opposed to Sunak so this looks weak for him.

assuming this isn't just the deluge of about 10 more and the forecasted start of a National Conservative Party (suggested abbreviation: NatC) - though we'd really be wanting some of Truss' lot and not just Johnson allies for that.

Posted by: Suedehead2 11th June 2023, 12:51 PM

Yes, I assume all three will be held on the same date - presumably next month. As the Selby byelection was not anticipated (unlike the other two), the Tories may mange to hold that one.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 15th June 2023, 02:34 PM

2 by-elections to be held 20th July.

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th June 2023, 03:14 PM

No date for Mid Beds yet as Dorries still hasn't formally resigned.

Posted by: Suedehead2 17th June 2023, 08:28 PM

David Warburton is reported to be resigning as disgraced MP for Somerton and Frome. While he had a large majority in 2019, it was a Lib Dem seat from 1997-2015.

Posted by: Envoirment 18th June 2023, 01:53 PM

I hope Nadine hands her notice in soon.

Meanwhile let's hope David Warburton's seat swings back to the lib dems in a landslide fashion.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 18th June 2023, 02:18 PM

Be interesting to see what occurs next and if there are any further resignations. The Tories seem to be on full on implosion mode... especially the more vocal Tories who support Boris.

Sunak meanwhile is too busy trying to find his spine to comment on, or do anything

Posted by: Suedehead2 18th June 2023, 02:51 PM

QUOTE(ElectroBoy @ Jun 18 2023, 03:18 PM)

Posted by: Smint 18th June 2023, 10:15 PM

QUOTE(ElectroBoy @ Jun 18 2023, 03:18 PM)

Posted by: Smint 20th July 2023, 10:44 PM

Lib Dems already claiming they've overturned a 19000 Tory majority in Somerton and Frome!

Posted by: Iz 💀 21st July 2023, 06:38 AM

Somerton & Frome:

LIB 21,187
CON 10,179
GRE 3,944
REF 1,303
LAB 1,009

others <1000.

Very impressive, the amount of Lib Dem votes is more than the majority they overturned.

Selby & Ainsty:

LAB 16,456
CON 12,295
GRE 1,838
YORK (IND) 1,503
REF 1,332
LIB 1,188

others <1000.

Also impressive, we have a new Baby of the House and it's the largest majority that Labour have ever overturned in a by-election. Well fought.

Uxbridge & Ruislip:

CON 13,965
LAB 13,470
GRE 893
REC (L.Fox) 714
LIB 526

others <250.

and then we have this one. Tory candidate is calling it an anti-ULEZ vote which is unfortunate but I'm sure plenty will start interpreting this one in whichever way they want, ignoring the far more significant overturns in the other two because this one went against expectations slightly.

Posted by: Rooney 21st July 2023, 08:38 AM

Agreed Iz on the Uxbridge one. That one was always going to be close, I suppose it saves Sunak's bacon a little bit, but if you look at the percentage swing it was unlucky from Labour, but also proves how hard Labour are going to have to work over the next 12-18 months.

Posted by: Iz 💀 21st July 2023, 09:02 AM

QUOTE(Izzy ��☄ @ Jun 25 2022, 12:40 AM)

Posted by: Jessie Where 21st July 2023, 09:14 AM

Was hoping for the triple whammy, oh well!

Posted by: Smint 21st July 2023, 09:30 AM

The Lib Dem successes are often underreported - surely the Blue Wall is going to be horrific for Sunak next year. South West, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc....Add in tactical voting.
The Selby vote was great for Labour as that part of the world is Brexit heaven.

For Tories to spin this night as a success is a joke!

Best news though - complete arsehole extraordinaire Laurence Fox who despite the hype and the fact that he recently posted an AI pic of him being the next Prime Minister got less than 1000 votes in a right wing seat. When will he get the message people can't stand the tosser

Posted by: Smint 21st July 2023, 10:47 AM

Although the fact that Uxbridge was a Tory hold, presumably because of people's resistance to ULEZ which is there to protect the environment means there will be a full-scale war on Green issues - when the planet is burning.