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 Eurovision 2011 · Predictions |
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 2nd March 2011, 05:50 AM
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#1
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 DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 
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Well, with just ten more entries left to be chosen we're beginning to get a pretty good picture of what the final may or may not look like, and early March is the traditional time to start predictions - so, without further ado, I unveil my first prediction.
Bear in mind the first one is notoriously off - although last year I did manage to predict 6/10 qualifiers from SF1 and 8/10 qualifiers from SF2 in the first prediction, I also predicted Latvia and Slovenia would finish 2nd and 3rd in SF1 (they came bottom two), that Croatia and Ireland would be top three overall, and that Germany would finish 15th. So let's see if I manage anything hilariously off this time around - I'm certain I'm going to have this Hungary prediction rammed in my face in two and a half months' time! SF1 01 · 127 · Russia 02 · 123 · Finland 03 · 117 · Hungary 04 · 091 · Norway 05 · 087 · Greece 06 · 084 · Serbia 07 · 076 · Azerbaijan 08 · 071 · Turkey 09 · 069 · Armenia 10 · 064 · Georgia - 11 · 059 · Lithuania 12 · 051 · Poland 13 · 049 · Albania 14 · 044 · Switzerland 15 · 033 · San Marino 16 · 028 · Croatia 17 · 027 · Malta 18 · 019 · Iceland 19 · 008 · Portugal Obviously there's a fair bit of guesswork going on there, but I'm seeing disappointing Portuguese and Croatian NF results leading to DNQs, and I reckon Russia are due a return to form by now. Finland have an incredibly strong package in Paradise Oskar, who seems to be alone in emulating Belgium last year and may score big off the back of being the sole cute man with acoustic guitar entry which normally yields a good result. Hungary got a good result off the back of random.org giving them the pimp slot of SF1 closer and me working on the assumption they choose the v hyped Wolf Kati, which would work fantastically as a closer. Looking on these results, it REALLY is going to be incredibly difficult for the Eurasian crescent of success (Serbia, Greece, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia) to all qualify without there being tears before bedtime - I think something notionally big with the juries, like Lithuania's entry, may miss out by a few points and that Albania may end up disappointed for the first time since 2007. SF2 01 · 142 · Denmark 02 · 112 · Slovenia 03 · 110 · Israel 04 · 105 · Austria 05 · 104 · Sweden 06 · 089 · Latvia 07 · 080 · Estonia 08 · 078 · Ukraine 09 · 072 · Bosnia 10 · 067 · Romania - 11 · 064 · Netherlands 12 · 062 · Slovakia 13 · 051 · Bulgaria 14 · 039 · Moldova 15 · 032 · Belarus 16 · 028 · Ireland 17 · 023 · Cyprus 18 · 018 · Belgium 19 · 004 · Macedonia This one's far easier as we have a far better idea of what this semi's like - I'm working under an assumption of Eric Saade or Danny representing Sweden, both of which should yield fairly similar results, an assumption of Dana International representing Israel, and an assumption of Ukraine's artist remaining unchanged. I reckon it'll be an absolute walkover for Denmark with the real fight being for 2nd and 10th. Denmark will hoover up a lot of 7s and 8s from going down big with juries, and I reckon that'll be the biggest threat to Romania, who I think will just about inch it but aren't going to be pleased at all to be in the same semi as Denmark. Austria I'm seeing doing very well off the back of its fairly rousing qualities, but also as it's in a semi with Italy, Slovenia, France and Germany - all of whom Austria can rely on for fairly big points for their traditionalist entry. Dana International will do well with televoters across Europe but won't smack the ball out of the park with an entry that is weaker than Diva, and name power will be responsible for a lot of Israeli points, and Sweden will be competing with Israel for the uptempo televotes, and a draw in the first half will make it harder to compete - but I can't see a schlagerfiaskot on the cards. The Netherlands and Slovakia I think will come very, very close to qualification but just miss out, and I think Bulgaria will be in for a repeat of Gerli Padar's fate for Estonia a few years back with a fairly similar entry. Jedward will go nowhere with a doubtless obnoxious performance, and Moldova are lucky to get as high as 14th - although they're very fortunate to have Romania, Belarus, Ukraine and Israel all in the same semi. Macedonia lack cultural companions in this semi and a song worthy of receiving votes. Overall, I think my predictions most likely to be wrong are those for Slovenia, Hungary, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, and the Netherlands... I think it's a little early to do final predictions, but I reckon victory will come from any of the top four from SF1 or any of the top five from SF2. |
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2nd March 2011, 08:28 AM
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#2
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,047 User: 116
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Blue/UK for the win!
N.B. Opinion subject to change upon hearing the song |
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2nd March 2011, 08:31 AM
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#3
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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It really is looking possible so far, isn't it? So far I can't see past a victory for one of the top five in SF2, and they're by no means unstoppable, so if we get something more Don't Wanna Lose You Again than Get Down On It from Blue we could actually be in with a shout!
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2nd March 2011, 08:55 AM
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#4
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,047 User: 116
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QUOTE(Tyron @ Mar 2 2011, 08:31 AM)  It really is looking possible so far, isn't it? So far I can't see past a victory for one of the top five in SF2, and they're by no means unstoppable, so if we get something more Don't Wanna Lose You Again than Get Down On It from Blue we could actually be in with a shout! Seeing as they said that it was typical Blue, I'm expecting more One Love than Don't Wanna Lose You Again (a sound that I can't imagine Blue doing at all) but as long as they've spruced whatever it is up so that it doesn't literally sound straight out of 2002, we should be alright. I maintain that we're in a slightly odd position, for the UK anyway, in that we have an artist that I think a certain amount of countries would vote for anyway regardless, so if they've got a strong melodic song, I'd be incredibly surprised if we missed the top ten. And if we have a great song, which I'm far less confident about, then victory is possible. I would LOVE another If You Come Back, but I get the feeling it's going to be more like All Rise/Fly By II etc... |
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2nd March 2011, 10:08 AM
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#5
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 22 December 2009
Posts: 30,355 User: 10,275
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Haha just listened to Dana. It's so trashy.. She still can't probably sing at all but that didn't stop her last time.
Wonder if she sings it half English in Düsseldorf. |
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2nd March 2011, 04:10 PM
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#6
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 15 May 2009
Posts: 77 User: 8,851
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Nice ones
 Armenia will for sure be in top5 of its Semi... Poland will go trough for sure and judging by Croatian NF they will too.. And i think Bulgaria will go trough too.. Otherwise awesome 
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6th March 2011, 02:22 AM
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#7
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Tyron @ Mar 2 2011, 05:50 AM) SF1 01 · 127 · Russia 02 · 123 · Finland 03 · 117 · Hungary 04 · 091 · Norway 05 · 087 · Greece 06 · 084 · Serbia 07 · 076 · Azerbaijan 08 · 071 · Turkey 09 · 069 · Armenia 10 · 064 · Georgia - 11 · 059 · Lithuania 12 · 051 · Poland 13 · 049 · Albania 14 · 044 · Switzerland 15 · 033 · San Marino 16 · 028 · Croatia 17 · 027 · Malta 18 · 019 · Iceland 19 · 008 · Portugal Obviously there's a fair bit of guesswork going on there, but I'm seeing disappointing Portuguese and Croatian NF results leading to DNQs, and I reckon Russia are due a return to form by now. Finland have an incredibly strong package in Paradise Oskar, who seems to be alone in emulating Belgium last year and may score big off the back of being the sole cute man with acoustic guitar entry which normally yields a good result. Hungary got a good result off the back of random.org giving them the pimp slot of SF1 closer and me working on the assumption they choose the v hyped Wolf Kati, which would work fantastically as a closer. Looking on these results, it REALLY is going to be incredibly difficult for the Eurasian crescent of success (Serbia, Greece, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia) to all qualify without there being tears before bedtime - I think something notionally big with the juries, like Lithuania's entry, may miss out by a few points and that Albania may end up disappointed for the first time since 2007. Yeah, switch Croatia and Greece. |
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6th March 2011, 08:38 AM
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#8
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,047 User: 116
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QUOTE(Tyron @ Mar 6 2011, 02:22 AM) Yeah, switch Croatia and Greece. And add another 50 or so points onto Russia's lead 
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6th March 2011, 05:29 PM
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#9
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 my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,756 User: 8,674
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Switching Croatia & Greece? So Greece not only failing to qualify, but coming 16th?
 I do think Croatia should be making it now, Greece could miss out (or rather, hopefully), but only just if they do.
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6th March 2011, 05:31 PM
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#10
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Jack Sykes @ Mar 6 2011, 05:29 PM) Switching Croatia & Greece? So Greece not only failing to qualify, but coming 16th? I do think Croatia should be making it now, Greece could miss out (or rather, hopefully), but only just if they do.No, not LITERALLY. I just meant in terms of qualification. |
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14th March 2011, 10:01 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 7,088 User: 9,886
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My initial prediction:
Semi Final 1: 01. Azerbaijan 02. Russia 03. Finland 04. Norway 05. Turkey 06. Serbia 07. Georgia 08. Armenia 09. Croatia 10. Hungary 11. Greece 12. Albania 13. Poland 14. Iceland 15. Portugal 16. Lithuania 17. Malta 18. Switzerland 19. San Marino I imagine the results of this semi final will be mostly political with so many heavyweight countries taking part. That said, considering the Greek entry is the worst song ever made, I think they'll be unlucky this year and miss out. Either that, or they'll disgracefully steal Hungary's place in the final. Semi Final 2: 01. Bosnia & Herzegovina 02. Sweden 03. Denmark 04. Ukraine 05. Romania 06. Estonia 07. Slovenia 08. Israel 09. Ireland 10. Austria 11. Belarus 12. Netherlands 13. Bulgaria 14. FYR Macedonia 15. Moldova 16. Cyprus 17. Latvia 18. Slovakia 19. Belgium With all the big name countries filtered out (Ukraine, Romania and Bosnia aside), this semi final will mostly be based on song quality. I'm fairly confident with this prediction. Maybe Netherlands or Belarus might sneak in to the top 10 over Ireland or Austria, but I think it more likely that Jedward will qualify. |
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14th March 2011, 10:29 PM
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#12
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my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,756 User: 8,674
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Don't know what to make of the English version of the Dutch entry, I now think they could miss out with Belarus getting through perhaps, as their new song is a lot better than before. The English version of the Polish entry is ok imo, but will probably miss out due to the semi it's in
 Will do proper predictions asap, but my current estimation is that it could be a fight between six for the victory. This post has been edited by Jaack Sykes: 14th March 2011, 10:59 PM |
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14th March 2011, 10:53 PM
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#13
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
Posts: 14,361 User: 10,347
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I've now heard 19 of the entries and I'm seriously gobsmacked.
Firstly, Jedward (who I detest with passion) don't have the worst entry this year. So far my least fave that I've heard is Belguim's entry 'With Love Baby'. Somewhat astonishingly, the best of the Eurovision entries I've heard so far is... ** gasp ** ...the UK entry!!!  I do, however, really like the entries from France and Turkey although I reckon I'll be alone in this. Of the 19 heard so far, I'm seriously underwhelmed with 12 of them (6 of which I would say are ok if I'm being generous). |
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14th March 2011, 11:03 PM
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#14
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 21 June 2008
Posts: 809 User: 6,472
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Isn't tomorrow the live draw for the semi's and the big 5 in the final? Will be quite telling I think (as always). If UK or France are early on in the final they could be screwed (though presumingly lines are open from the beginning again?). Its nice to see thats its quite wide open this year, theres about 6-8 songs could do it IMO
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14th March 2011, 11:05 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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QUOTE(simonf @ Mar 14 2011, 11:03 PM) Isn't tomorrow the live draw for the semi's and the big 5 in the final? Will be quite telling I think (as always). If UK or France are early on in the final they could be screwed (though presumingly lines are open from the beginning again?). Its nice to see thats its quite wide open this year, theres about 6-8 songs could do it IMO It is yes.  I'm not sure if they're doing the final draw as well though tomorrow, as I've only seen the semi final draws being mentioned anywhere online. If they're doing that thing where countries can choose where they perform in the semis, I presume they will do the finalists as well to make it fair.
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15th March 2011, 12:20 AM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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Ok then...inital predictions from me. Prepare for some drastic changes in the next few weeks though!
Semi Final I
Semi Final II
Final predictions coming over the next few days... |
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15th March 2011, 12:22 AM
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#17
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Do you really think Iceland will do so badly? I reckon juries will quite like it but it won't be enough...
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15th March 2011, 12:49 AM
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#18
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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I've only listened to it a couple of times. Was pretty horrendous from what I remember, and such a shame given the past three Icelandic entries.
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15th March 2011, 12:51 AM
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#19
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(David @ Mar 15 2011, 12:49 AM) I've only listened to it a couple of times. Was pretty horrendous from what I remember, and such a shame given the past three Icelandic entries. It's not actually a bad song, it's just terrible compared to Yohanna. It's very sweet, but incredibly twee - I think it'll get a fair amount of jury votes but completely bomb in the televote. |
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15th March 2011, 12:58 AM
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#20
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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QUOTE(Tyron @ Mar 15 2011, 12:51 AM) It's not actually a bad song, it's just terrible compared to Yohanna. It's very sweet, but incredibly twee - I think it'll get a fair amount of jury votes but completely bomb in the televote. I LOVE BELARUS. This song is going to be permanently stuck in my head for the next few weeks I can tell. What are you thinking about their chances? |
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