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 Predict: Woman Like Me |
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 5th October 2018, 03:17 PM
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#1
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931 
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Okay,
So bare in mind that we have no idea what the promo strategy is going to be, there's rumours they'll premiere the video during X Factor and we don't know if they'll perform it somewhere yet. Everyone underestimated Shout Out last time, and even though that had the X Factor debut, it was also released with only 4 days to go, this has a full week! |
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5th October 2018, 03:20 PM
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#2
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931
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QUOTE(Joe. @ Oct 11 2016, 02:40 PM)  I think low top 20 in week 1, if they're lucky. But should climb top 5 in a few weeks, with any luck. QUOTE(Ryan. @ Oct 11 2016, 02:44 PM) I went for #11-20 first week climbing to #6-10, although there is a part of me that thinks this could go off the scale and pull in incredible number for a #1 first week debut despite the release date. It is the most hyped release I've seen for a UK act potentially since Adele last year judging by the media coverage (probably forgetting someone obvious - maybe ZAYN but even his hype seemed more confined to the 1D fanbase). QUOTE(JosephStyles @ Oct 11 2016, 05:00 PM) #21-30 week 1 (will be top 10 on sales but it will be without almost 3 full days of streaming, and the rest of the week won't make up for it) #2-5 final peak 20-40k week 1 sales (closer to 20k) Although I'm really hoping I'm underestimating this! QUOTE(Jonjo @ Oct 14 2016, 03:01 PM) Predixxxx... #11-#20 #4 21k-40k Some Shout Out preddix from 2016! |
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5th October 2018, 03:27 PM
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#3
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931
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Like I said in the opening post, I think it's hard to predict without knowing they have up their sleeves next week. If they do literally nothing, I can see it debuting at about #5 like Reggaeton Lento (so long as they get good Spotify support and instant radio support better than Only You). Hype seems a lot higher than for Only You.
But with even a moderate performance or promo slot I think it could easily take the #1 So I went for the in-between of #3 with 40k, peaking at #1 after a probable X Factor performance the week after. |
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5th October 2018, 03:41 PM
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#4
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 I found the love, I found the love in me
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 13 December 2007 Posts: 87,451 User: 5,042
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Top 10 (#7/#8 - with no promo / #3/#4 if video premiere is during XF)
31k-40k #1 (depending on if they're on XF the following week. They need to capitalise straight away.) A lot more hype surrounding this than there was for 'Only You' so hopefully they don't mess up the first week Spotify playlisting! |
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5th October 2018, 03:49 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931
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Also, if they release their video in week 1 you have to remember that Little Mix get faster video views than any other UK act (in the UK). More than Adele and Ed Sheeran in their first weeks, and video views now count towards the chart.
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5th October 2018, 03:49 PM
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#6
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 2 September 2016
Posts: 482 User: 23,564 
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I went ahead and decided to be optimistic
#1 debut - The current big songs really aren’t selling that much and I think the opportunity is just right for someone like Little Mix to come in and blow up on the first week. I’ve seen a lot of hype for this single to so hopefully that pays off with some heavy initial radio play and good Spotify playlisting immediately. 51k-60k - This about the range they’d need to beat Promises this week (and probably next) and a I think it’s doable, especially if they have some kind of performance that they’re not telling us about yet. #1 final peak - Regardless of its debut position after hearing the demo and knowing that they will perform it eventually and release the video I think it could definitely spend a few weeks at #1 |
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5th October 2018, 04:04 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 23 September 2012
Posts: 2,177 User: 17,608
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I'm going to go for a #3 debut, since X Factor promo is the following week I believe. At the risk of being too optimistic, I can see it climbing to #1 pretty quickly. It sounds infectious as hell going by the snippets, and the hype is certainly there compared to Only You.
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5th October 2018, 04:15 PM
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#8
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931
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One Last thing, I promise (for now):
Hopefully Only You didn't suck too much hype because this week's #1 sold 56,888. And Ariana debuted on 74,200. I'd say Little Mix have the same if even more of a fanbase and general interest here in the UK, so I wouldn't rule out them surprising us with this. |
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5th October 2018, 04:31 PM
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#9
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 10 April 2016
Posts: 27,025 User: 23,155      |
They’ll need about 52k I reckon
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5th October 2018, 04:55 PM
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#10
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 i can only do one normal thing a day
Joined: 25 July 2011
Posts: 19,628 User: 14,428
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Pretty sure they'll debut at #1? when Shout Out to My Ex was able to get like 90k+ in a few days (with an X Factor slot granted but they're bigger than ever now)
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5th October 2018, 05:11 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2006
Posts: 9,448 User: 2,021
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Number 1 debut I think - I don't think they're playing with this and the snippets have been well received. There'll definitely be something planed for release week.
They'll 'sell' at least 55k so it should be a comfortable number 1. |
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5th October 2018, 06:19 PM
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#12
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 Break the tension
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 88,969 User: 51
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I'm actually confident they'll debut at #1 again.
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5th October 2018, 06:46 PM
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#13
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"Jayrusaleminians" - Umi.
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 4 April 2007 Posts: 41,452 User: 3,217
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Nooo idea, I'll say #2 just to be a tad pessimistic, with 41 - 50k opening. Eventual #1 peak.
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5th October 2018, 07:40 PM
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#14
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Is anyone here a marine biologist?
Joined: 23 January 2010
Posts: 2,504 User: 10,505
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#1 debut I reckon. I wouldn't be surprised if it did 70k+ in the first week tbh.
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6th October 2018, 04:56 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Idol
Joined: 29 June 2006
Posts: 128,433 User: 845
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Top 20 debut with around 26,000 and number 3 peak but I'm hoping number 1.
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7th October 2018, 12:50 AM
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#16
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,078 User: 18,639
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Flop.
They are on the way down now and past their sell by date. Happens to all acts. |
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7th October 2018, 01:32 AM
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#17
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Creole Lady Mayonnaise
Joined: 16 March 2012
Posts: 9,971 User: 16,548
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it happened to you
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7th October 2018, 01:43 AM
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#18
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I found the love, I found the love in me
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 13 December 2007 Posts: 87,451 User: 5,042
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QUOTE(¡Michael Myers! @ Oct 7 2018, 01:50 AM) Flop. Lets be honest. Spending 9 weeks at #1, becoming another "millionaire" for them and managing to shift 100k in week one of albums and you'd still deem them a flop...
They are on the way down now and past their sell by date. Happens to all acts. |
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7th October 2018, 01:48 AM
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#19
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Is anyone here a marine biologist?
Joined: 23 January 2010
Posts: 2,504 User: 10,505
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QUOTE(¡Michael Myers! @ Oct 7 2018, 01:50 AM) Flop. They are on the way down now and past their sell by date. Happens to all acts. I'm even more optimistic of a #1 now seeing as your predictions are generally ABYSMAL  
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7th October 2018, 07:35 AM
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#20
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931
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Actually their popularity has increased a lot since Shout Out went to #1. Take a look at their engagement increases:
     
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