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 Eurovision Song Contest 2017 · Odds, Top 5 | Italy · Portugal · Bulgaria · Sweden · Armenia |
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  19th February 2017, 12:04 AM
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#1
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 
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 Of course, it's very very very early to start looking at odds but Betfred has opened their Eurovision betting for 2017 which means we can start to see hype trains form and fade as the national selections come and go. As always, at such an early stage, just a couple of people making bets can cause big shifts in the market and the odds are based on that little bit of money in the market rather than expert opinions, but still let's have a look! Italy currently lead the way with Francesco on odds of 4/1, no surprise considering his media coverage all over Europe. Following them are the power trio of Sweden, Russia and Australia who are of course up there just for being those countries. Those three are on 9/2, 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Then we have the comeback kids both on 10/1. These are of course Greece, after their significant misfire last year, and Romania, after their significant misfire too followed by disqualification. Then we have hosts Ukraine on 12/1 and Estonia on 14/1, the latter no doubt due to the strength of their national final. All other countries are 20/1 or higher at the moment. Probably worth pointing out Iceland at 50/1 and Belarus joint-outsiders at 100/1 considering the former's strong national final and the latter being the go-to fan favourite at the moment! It's never too early to spend your coins on Belarus if you truly think they are top 5 possibilities. Full list here: Eurovision @ Oddschecker |
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19th February 2017, 12:04 AM
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#2
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
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As always I'll copy these over from the 2016 thread so I don't forget about them. They are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum which always provide very interesting reading.
2016 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 13 2016, 06:03 PM)  01 (01) | 007/4 |  Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 3rd02 (07) | 013/2 |  France · Amir - J'ai cherché 6th03 (02) | 011/1 |  Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry 5th04 (04) | 014/1 |  Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 2nd05 (05) | 020/1 |  Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water 12th06 (09) | 020/1 |  Ukraine · Jamala - 1944 1st07 (11) | 022/1 |  Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 7th08 (06) | 022/1 |  Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat 15th09 (08) | 025/1 |  Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 18th10 (15) | 033/1 |  Spain · Barei - Say Yay! 22nd11 (14) | 035/1 |  Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 4th12 (12) | 040/1 |  Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation 16th13 (03) | 045/1 |  Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 23rd14 (19) | 050/1 |  Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 8th15 (21) | 050/1 |  The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down 11th(Oddschecker) 2015 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 25 2015, 06:38 PM) 01. 006/4 | Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes 1st02. 007/2 | Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore 3rd03. 005/1 | Australia · Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again 5th04. 010/1 |  Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday 7th05. 025/1 |  Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää 16th (SF)06. 025/1 | Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices 2nd07. 025/1 |  Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me 8th08. 025/1 |  Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You 14th09. 033/1 |  Azerbaijan · Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf 12th10. 050/1 |  Iceland · Maria Olafs - Unbroken 15th (SF)11. 050/1 |  United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You 24th12. 050/1 |  Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside 4th13. 066/1 | Spain · Edurne - Amanecer 21st14. 066/1 |  Albania · Elhaida Dani - I'm Alive 17th15. 080/1 | Armenia · Genealogy - Face The Shadow 16th(Oddschecker) 2014 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 7 2014, 05:03 PM) 01. 6/4 Armenia (Aram MP3 - Not Alone) 4th02. 11/2 Sweden (Sanna Nielsen - Undo) 3rd03. 12/1  Denmark (Basim - Cliché Love Song) 9th04. 12/1 Norway (Carl Espen - Silent Storm) 8th05. 18/1  Hungary (András Kállay-Saunders - Running) 5th06. 20/1 United Kingdom (Molly - Children Of The Universe) 17th07. 20/1 Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock) 6th08. 20/1 Azerbaijan (Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire) 22nd09. 25/1 Belgium (Axel Hirsoux - Mother) 14th (SF)10. 25/1  Romania (Paula Seling & OVI - Miracle) 12th11. 40/1 Russia (Tolmachevy Sisters - Shine) 7th12. 66/1 Italy (Emma Marrone - La Mia Città) 21st13. 66/1  Greece (Freaky Fortune feat. Risky Kidd - Rise Up) 20th14. 66/1  Israel (Mei Finegold - Same Heart) 14th (SF)15. 66/1  Ireland (Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat) 12th (SF)(Oddschecker) 2013 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 18 2013, 06:06 PM) 01. 6/4 Denmark (Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops) 1st02. 8/1 Norway (Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love) 4th03. 12/1 Ukraine (Zlata Ognevich - Gravity) 3rd04. 16/1 Russia (Dina Garipova - What If) 5th05. 16/1 Sweden (Robin Stjernberg - You) 14th06. 19/1 The Netherlands (Anouk - Birds) 9th07. 25/1  Germany (Cascada - Glorious) 21st08. 25/1  Georgia (Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall) 15th09. 25/1 Italy (Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale) 7th10. 33/1 Azerbaijan (Farid Mammadov - Hold Me) 2nd11. 40/1  San Marino (Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola)) 11th (SF)12. 50/1 United Kingdom (Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me) 19th13. 66/1 Ireland (Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives) 26th14. 66/1  Belarus (Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh) 16th15. 75/1 Greece (Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free) 6th(Oddschecker) 2012 QUOTE(David @ Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM) 01. 9/4
Sweden (Loreen - Euphoria) 1st02. 8/1 Italy (Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina (Out Of Love)) 9th03. 10/1 Russia (Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody) 2nd04. 11/1 Serbia (Željko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar) 3rd05. 14/1 Denmark (Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better) 23rd06. 14/1 United Kingdom (Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free) 25th07. 16/1 Ireland (Jedward - Waterline) 19th08. 18/1 Spain (Pastora Soler - Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)) 10th09. 20/1 Germany (Roman Lob - Standing Still) 8th10. 20/1 Norway (Tooji - Stay) 26th11. 22/1 Iceland (Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - Never Forget) 20th12. 25/1 Greece (Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac) 17th13. 28/1 Romania (Mandinga - Zaleilah) 12th14. 28/1  Turkey (Can Bonomo - Love Me Back) 7th15. 33/1  Cyprus (Ivi Adamou - La La Love) 16th(Sky Bet) |
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19th February 2017, 12:04 AM
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#3
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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2011
QUOTE(Pop B!tch @ Apr 24 2011, 08:45 PM) 01. 4/1 France (Amaury Vassili - Sognu) 15th02. 13/2 Estonia (Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street) 24th03. 7/1 United Kingdom (Blue - I Can) 11th04. 8/1 Hungary (Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams?) 22nd05. 10/1 Sweden (Eric Saade - Popular) 3rd06. 10/1  Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind) 6th07. 12/1 Azerbaijan (Ell & Nikki - Running Scared) 1st08. 12/1 Norway (Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba) 17th (SF)09. 12/1 Germany (Lena - Taken By A Stranger) 10th10. 20/1 Russia (Alexej Vorobjov - Get You) 16th11. 20/1 Ireland (Jedward - Lipstick) 8th12. 20/1 Denmark (A Friend In London - New Tomorrow) 5th13. 33/1 Italy (Raphael Gualazzi - Madness Of Love) 2nd14. 40/1 Romania (Hotel FM - Change) 17th15. 40/1 Poland (Magdalena Tul - Jestem) 19th (SF)(Paddy Power) 2010 QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 6 2010, 11:36 AM) 01. 5/2 Germany (Lena - Satellite) 1st02. 5/2 Azerbaijan (Safura - Drip Drop) 5th03. 8/1 Denmark (Chanée & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This) 4th04. 8/1 Israel (Harel Skaat - Milim) 14th05. 14/1 Armenia (Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone) 7th06. 16/1 Croatia (Feminnem - Lako Je Sve) 13th (SF)07. 20/1 Norway (Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours) 20th08. 22/1 Sweden (Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life) 11th (SF)09. 25/1 Ireland (Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You) 23rd10. 28/1 Greece (Giorgos Alkaios and Friends - OPA) 8th(William Hill) 2009 QUOTE(David @ Apr 7 2009, 12:16 AM) 01. 6/4 Norway (Alexander Rybak - Fairytale) 1st02. 9/2 Greece (Sakis Rouvas - This Is Our Night) 7th03. 8/1 Turkey (Hadise - Düm Tek Tek) 4th04. 8/1  Montenegro (Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life) 11th (SF)05. 10/1 Azerbaijan (AySel and Arash - Always) 3rd06. 12/1 Sweden (Malena Ernman - La Voix) 21st07. 14/1 Malta (Chiara - What If We?) 22nd08. 18/1 United Kingdom (Jade Ewen - It's My Time) 5th09. 25/1 Estonia (Urban Symphony - Rändajad) 6th10. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Regina - Bistra Voda) 9th11. 25/1 France (Patricia Kaas - Et S'il Fallait Le Faire) 8th12. 25/1 Spain (Soraya - La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me)) 24th13. 25/1 Russia (Anastasiya Prikhodko - Mamo) 11th14. 33/1 Finland (Waldo's People - Lose Control) 25th15. 33/1 Iceland (Yohanna - Is It True?) 2nd(Paddy Power) 2008 QUOTE(David @ Apr 23 2008, 10:40 PM) 01. 7/2 Russia (Dima Bilan - Believe) 1st02. 9/2 Serbia (Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić - Oro) 6th03. 5/1 Ireland (Dustin The Turkey - Irelande Douze Pointe) 15th (SF)04. 11/2 Armenia (Sirusho - Qele, Qele) 4th05. 7/1 Ukraine (Ani Lorak - Shady Lady) 2nd06. 9/1 Sweden (Charlotte Perrelli - Hero) 18th07. 18/1 Bulgaria (Deep Zone and Balthazar - DJ, Take Me Away) 11th (SF)08. 20/1 Greece (Kalomira - Secret Combination) 3rd09. 20/1 Spain (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre - Baila El Chiki-Chiki) 16th10. 22/1 France (Sébastian Tellier) 19th11. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Laka - Pokušaj) 10th12. 25/1 Latvia (Pirates Of The Sea - Wolves Of The Sea) 12th13. 25/1 Turkey (Mor ve Ötesi - Deli) 7th14. 25/1  Switzerland (Paolo Meneguzzi - Era Stupendo) 13th (SF)15. 25/1 Romania (Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume) 20th(Paddy Power) 2007 QUOTE(David @ Apr 16 2007, 09:54 PM) 01. 5/1
Switzerland (DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive) 20th (SF)02. 7/1 Sweden (The Ark - The Worrying Kind) 18th03. 8/1 Serbia (Marija Šerifović - Molitva) 1st04. 8/1 Belarus (Koldun - Work Your Magic) 6th05. 11/1 Ukraine (Verka Serduchka - Dancing Lasha Tumbai) 2nd06. 11/1 Bulgaria (Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov - Water) 5th07. 12/1 Russia (Serebro - Song #1) 3rd08. 14/1 Greece (Sarbel - Yassou Maria) 7th09. 16/1 Romania (Todomondo - Liubi, Liubi, I Love You) 13th10. 16/1 Cyprus (Evridiki - Comme ci, Comme ça) 15th (SF)11. 20/1 Slovenia (Alenka Gotar - Cvet Z Juga) 15th12. 20/1 United Kingdom (Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)) 22nd13. 20/1 Malta (Olivia Lewis - Vertigo) 25th (SF)14. 25/1 Latvia (Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte) 16th15. 25/1 Spain (D'NASH - I Love You Mi Vida) 20th(Paddy Power) |
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19th February 2017, 12:15 AM
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#4
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,040 User: 116
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Hoping 2017 has the unpredictability of 2011 and 2014, but more like the latter seeing as those surprise results were fantastic and 2011's surprise results were completely crap
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19th February 2017, 12:27 AM
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#5
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 10 July 2008
Posts: 2,146 User: 6,614
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Wow at that 2014 list - neither Conchita or the Common Linnets anywhere near the top two! I suppose Austria were seen as too novelty and Netherlands too chilled until the semi-finals arrived.
Odds didn't do too badly last year for the top seven picks (Malta instead of Bulgaria being the only odd one out) but Russia were by far the favourites right up until the contest, Australia and (eventual winners) Ukraine having a late charge after the semis - even then I think few of us actually predicted 1944 to win. Surprises can certainly still happen! |
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19th February 2017, 12:41 AM
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#6
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 13,207 User: 66
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How did they get the winner so wrong in 2007?
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19th February 2017, 02:04 AM
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#7
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 10 July 2008
Posts: 2,146 User: 6,614
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Probably because of DJ Bobo's massive popularity in parts of Europe, although fairly unknown here - even his huge Europe-wide smash Chihuahua only went low top 40 here. Vampires Are Alive reached top 10 in a few countries even though it didn't make it out the semis.
This post has been edited by BillyH: 19th February 2017, 02:13 AM |
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22nd February 2017, 07:33 PM
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#8
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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Some of those previous odds are brilliant to read. DJ Bobo favourite in 2007 and Jade Ewen so far down in 2009 are two that stick out! Thinking back, I'd have thought Jade's odds would've been around 6/1 or 7/1.
Hope we get an unpredictable year this year, but at the moment I can see the Italian hype gaining more and more momentum. Nothing else selected stands a chance in comparison to that yet. Indeed, if we were to have the final right now with the 13 selected songs, I think the UK would be top two or three! With the possible exception of Poland, I don't think we've got a single semi final qualifier yet either... |
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23rd February 2017, 02:44 PM
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#9
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I'd expect Belarus and Georgia both to qualify as well, definitely the former. Hungary are also more likely that not in my opinion and Malta can never be ruled out with their jury support!
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20th April 2017, 11:44 PM
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#10
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 10 July 2008
Posts: 2,146 User: 6,614
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Not too long to go and Italy look unbeatable, far and away the favourite on all booking sites. In (distant) second place is Bulgaria, presumably after drastically underestimating Poli last year.
No surprises with Sweden being 3rd, amazingly though Portugal follow it in 4th - that would be a hell of a comeback for them, their first Final appearance since 2010 and first top 10 since 1996, their 6th place that year being their current all-time best. Over-optimistic hype or one of the year's biggest surprises? Belgium complete the top 5 (slipping from #2 a few weeks ago), some offering as low as 20/1 for Blanche which could well be worth a punt. I do think Italy have all but won this, but other than Sweden god knows about the rest of the top 10. Last year Russia, France, Sweden, Australia and Ukraine at least seemed assured of top ten places, this time I've no idea! |
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21st April 2017, 12:31 AM
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#11
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Ooh I should quickly jot down the top 15 so I have a record to add to my history posts above!
13/10 Italy 13/2 Bulgaria 9/1 Sweden 14/1 Portugal 20/1 Belgium 33/1 Australia 33/1 Armenia 40/1 France 50/1 Azerbaijan 50/1 Denmark 50/1 Hungary 66/1 Greece 80/1 Romania 100/1 The Netherlands 100/1 Estonia |
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23rd April 2017, 06:09 PM
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#12
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 I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
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Highly considering each way bets on Romania, Estonia and The Netherlands!
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23rd April 2017, 07:05 PM
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#13
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,175 User: 10,139
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I've put £2.50 on Netherlands each way, too tempting!
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24th April 2017, 12:08 PM
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#14
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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Bookies really think it's a foregone conclusion this year - even more so than last year! I knew Russia wouldn't win last year, but I can't see Italy being beaten this year. They're overestimating Sweden too.
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26th April 2017, 03:50 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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As we approach rehearsals, here are how the odds have settled over the past few weeks. As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds.
01 | 0011/8 | Italy · Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma02 | 0007/1 | Bulgaria · Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess03 | 0009/1 | Sweden · Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On04 | 0014/1 |  Portugal · Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois05 | 0025/1 | Belgium · Blanche - City Lights06 | 0025/1 | Australia · Isaiah - Don't Come Easy07 | 0033/1 | Armenia · Artsvik - Fly With Me08 | 0050/1 | Azerbaijan · Dihaj - Skeletons09 | 0050/1 | France · Alma - Requiem10 | 0066/1 | Romania · Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!11 | 0066/1 | Greece · Demy - This Is Love12 | 0066/1 | Hungary · Joci Pápai - Origo13 | 0066/1 | Denmark · Anja - Where I Am14 | 0100/1 | Estonia · Koit Toome & Laura - Verona15 | 0100/1 | Ireland · Brendan Murray - Dying To Try16 | 0100/1 | The Netherlands · OG3NE - Lights And Shadows17 | 0100/1 | United Kingdom · Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You18 | 0100/1 | Finland · Norma John - Blackbird19 | 0150/1 | Croatia · Jacques Houdek - My Friend20 | 0150/1 |  F.Y.R. Macedonia · Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone21 | 0200/1 | Ukraine · O.Torvald - Time22 | 0200/1 | Poland · Kasia Moś - Flashlight23 | 0200/1 | Norway · JOWST - Grab The Moment24 | 0200/1 | Iceland · Svala - Paper25 | 0200/1 | Serbia · Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep26 | 0200/1 | Georgia · Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith27 | 0250/1 | Israel · IMRI - I Feel Alive28 | 0250/1 | Switzerland · Timebelle - Apollo29 | 0300/1 | Germany · Levina - Perfect Life30 | 0300/1 |  Moldova · Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma31 | 0300/1 | Spain · Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover32 | 0300/1 |  Austria · Nathan Trent - Running On Air33 | 0300/1 | Belarus · Naviband - Story Of My Life34 | 0400/1 | Cyprus · Hovig - Gravity35 | 0500/1 | Latvia · Triana Park - Line36 | 0500/1 | Montenegro · Slavko Kalezić - Space37 | 0500/1 | Malta · Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly38 | 0700/1 | Albania · Lindita - World39 | 0750/1 |  Czech Republic · Martina Bárta - My Turn40 | 0750/1 |  Lithuania · Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution41 | 0750/1 | Slovenia · Omar Naber - On My Way42 | 1000/1 | San Marino · Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
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26th April 2017, 03:51 PM
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#16
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,175 User: 10,139
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1000/1 !!!!!
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26th April 2017, 03:55 PM
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#17
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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I'm feeling like I'll want to get some each ways on in the next few days before rehearsals start the odds fluctuating. Netherlands seems like a bargain at 100/1, I must say!
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26th April 2017, 04:02 PM
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#18
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,040 User: 116
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Some very attractive bets in there, I'm tempted to place a couple of quid each way on The Netherlands, Finland, Estonia and Norway for a start.
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26th April 2017, 04:04 PM
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#19
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,175 User: 10,139
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I got my each way on Netherlands yesterday, I had the same idea of getting in before rehearsals. Thinking of a couple of quid on some others but I'm not sure I really have *that* feeling about anything that's got good enough odds to bother with...
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29th April 2017, 08:34 PM
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#20
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,040 User: 116
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My bets for this year, have got them in prior to the rehearsals starting:
£1 each way on Norway at 100/1 (I'm sure this stands no chance, but it has a slim - very slim - chance of pulling an Everybody and appealing to those watching in a party mood, plus it's the most chart leaning/Spotify hit sounding song in the competition this year to my ears) £1 each way on Netherlands at 50/1 (I adore this song and I'm sure they'll deliver a great performance. If viewers are in a retro mood it could scrape into the top four somehow, I'm sure the juries will back it to some extent) £1 each way on Finland at 50/1 (something tells me the stark yet fragile nature of this song will stand out enormously and is being underrated, the odds might drop a lot when the rehearsals begin...it's not a winner but again, if everything worked in its favour I guess it could challenge for a top five) £1 on Portugal (again, this could really flop, or it could smash the competition if the juries all give it full backing and it comes in the top five of the televote, which is possible) £1 on Sweden (I can't work out if I think this will smash or not, but what it could do is what it did in Melfest and just appeal to everyone in an 8 points sort of way, which could be enough to sneak victory without winning on either metric) £1 on Bulgaria (Italy's closest challenger I guess and represents the other side of the sort of thing that Spotify/chart listeners seem to love these days). Worth £1 just in case, I could certainly see it coming top three on both metrics. £1 on Italy (hardly seems worth it at the odds, but deep down I still believe this will win and I always back the song I think will win no matter what) |
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