Predict: End of decade 2010-2019 early predictions

BuzzJack - Entertainment Discussion _ Music Charts _ UK Charts

Latest Site News

Hozier climbs to number one

A chart double for Beyonce

Benson Boone remains at number one

3 Pages

1 2 3 >

Predict: End of decade 2010-2019 early predictions, Predict for the end of the decade

Display modes

Track this thread - Email this thread - Print this thread - Download this thread - Subscribe to this forum

danG View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:45 PM Post #1
🔥🚀🔥 Joined: 30 August 2010 Posts: 74,503 User: 11,746	I know its really really early but what and how many of 2010s songs will appear in the end of decade top 100 - you can also guess 2011. Only 10 songs sold 1 million last decade (of course this is before SOF, IGF, PF, BL and Crazy all passed a million in 2010), so you can guess how many songs will sell a million this decade Example, predict where a song will be on the end of decade chart, or how much it'll sell by the end of the decade. 2010s sales have been good but who knows if sales will be better by 2014 or worse. I wouldn't be suprised if the following made the end of decade top 10 or high top 20: Eminem - Love The Way You Lie Bruno Mars - Just The Way You Are Bruno Mars - Grenade Jessie J - Price Tag (its selling massively so can see this doing well) Rihanna - Only Girl In The World Matt Cardle - When We Collide. Oh, and the whole top 15 of 2010 and 'Firework' I can see making the end of decade top 100. 'What's My Name' by Rihanna maybe. Make your early predictions for the end of the decade.


Soy Adrián View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:47 PM Post #2
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	10-15 songs will sell 1,000,000 in the decade (excluding older songs which pass the milestone before 2019). Adele's "21" will be in the top 10 albums of the decade, along wih one greatest hits album - possibly by Rihanna.


Chez Wombat View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:48 PM Post #3
The owls are not what they seem Pronouns: He/him Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,095 User: 9,232	probably the whole top 15 plus maybe Firework and She Said, it wasn't a particularly bad year for sales I think When We Collide, Love The Way You Lie, Just The Way You Are and Only Girl will all get over a million by the end of this year or next year This post has been edited by chart wizard: Feb 27 2011, 02:51 PM


Mart!n View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:48 PM Post #4
Infamy Infamy they all got it in for me Joined: 5 March 2006 Posts: 129,133 User: 2	Hate to burst your bubble, what happens if the human race was wiped out by 2017


danG View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:51 PM Post #5
🔥🚀🔥 Joined: 30 August 2010 Posts: 74,503 User: 11,746	QUOTE(MancunianGiraffe @ Feb 27 2011, 02:47 PM) 10-15 songs will sell 1,000,000 in the decade (excluding older songs which pass the milestone before 2019). Adele's "21" will be in the top 10 albums of the decade, along wih one greatest hits album - possibly by Rihanna. A greatest hits album by Rihanna would do really well, she really is a singles artist! Unfortunately I wouldn't buy it as I have most of her singles either from Now albums or from me downloading them. Take That's Progress could land top 5 for the decade, it sold so much so quickly. And of course Adele will do massively with '21'. Now is a great time for sales so hopefully more million sellers this decade! And if the human race was wiped out before 2020, then we wouldnt have an end of decade chart - but its unlikely to happen This post has been edited by danielGaGa: Feb 27 2011, 02:53 PM


Eric_Blob View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:54 PM Post #6
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 18 February 2010 Posts: 25,005 User: 10,665	Well, statistically, there'll be 10 songs from each year in the top 100, and 1 song from each year in the top 10. Obviously, this isn't entirely true for two main reasons. Firstly, there'd be more songs from the earlier years, because they have longer to sell. Secondly, sales in general can vary from year to year. The sales in 2010 were so much higher than in, say, 2005. We don't know what trends will happen this decade. If sales steadily increase for the whole of the decade, then the 2010 songs might struggle. However, I doubt that will happen. I think during this decade, sales will get to a peak in the next few years, and then start dropping. Anyway, I think a song from 2010 should make the end of decade top 10. I think the highest-selling 2010 song as of 2019 will probably be Just the Way You Are. However, judging by last decade, the decade-end top 10 will probably be mainly charity songs and reality TV songs. This post has been edited by Eric_Blob: Feb 27 2011, 02:55 PM


Brer View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 02:59 PM Post #7
I'll just stick around and do some more damage Joined: 14 February 2009 Posts: 115,023 User: 8,300	QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Feb 27 2011, 02:54 PM) However, judging by last decade, the decade-end top 10 will probably be mainly charity songs and reality TV songs. Charity songs don't seem to sell anywhere near as much as they used to - HH started off well but in the end 3/4 of its sales were in week 1 and another 1/6 were in week 2. The only way I can see there being a massive selling charity single again is if there's a Band Aid 30 version of DTKIC? in 2014. Although XF winner's singles could still finish highly, When We Collide looks like it'll only barely sell a million if at all and he was literally the most popular XF winner of all during the series (he came 2nd in the voting for live show 1 but won every single other vote, although his lead got smaller towards the end presumably due to his illness) so I doubt it somehow. This post has been edited by Bray: Feb 27 2011, 03:01 PM


Soy Adrián View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 03:02 PM Post #8
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Feb 27 2011, 02:54 PM) Well, statistically, there'll be 10 songs from each year in the top 100, and 1 song from each year in the top 10. Obviously, this isn't entirely true for two main reasons. Firstly, there'd be more songs from the earlier years, because they have longer to sell. Secondly, sales in general can vary from year to year. The sales in 2010 were so much higher than in, say, 2005. We don't know what trends will happen this decade. If sales steadily increase for the whole of the decade, then the 2010 songs might struggle. However, I doubt that will happen. I think during this decade, sales will get to a peak in the next few years, and then start dropping. Anyway, I think a song from 2010 should make the end of decade top 10. I think the highest-selling 2010 song as of 2019 will probably be Just the Way You Are. However, judging by last decade, the decade-end top 10 will probably be mainly charity songs and reality TV songs. A decade is such a long time in musical terms that it's impossible to tell... in the 90s many of the massive sellers were novelty hits and songs that were tied in with films. Consequently, that decade was synonymous with such things. Likewise, in years to come the 00s could be seen as the peak of the reality/charity hit and the current decade could see more download hits get right to the top. Obviously it's impossible to predict what sales will be like in eight years but I can see relatively few songs going over 1-1.2 million but LOADS between 600k and 1 million - a far more consistent decade-end chart than the one for 2000-2009.


gilly010 View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 03:33 PM Post #9
BuzzJack Enthusiast Joined: 13 October 2010 Posts: 977 User: 12,017	I can see the top selling song selling around 1.5 million with about 20 songs selling a million and also to get into the top100, a song will need to sell about 700k


Brer View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 03:42 PM Post #10
I'll just stick around and do some more damage Joined: 14 February 2009 Posts: 115,023 User: 8,300	We managed 11 600k sellers last year and a few other 2010 songs are likely to / have already passed 600k since then so I'd hope 600k at the very least is the threshold for the top 100 at decade-end.


superbossanova View member profile	Feb 27 2011, 06:39 PM Post #11
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 5,948 User: 50	Justin Bieber will definitely have the biggest single of the decade. I also think he'll have another one in the top 10, and another three more between 11-50. The Black Eyed Peas will also be in the top 10 with their modern twist on Cyndi Lauper's Girls Just Wanna Have Fun. I myself hope for a big 90s revival - some like Flo Rida have already started it (see Sugar) - as the 80s are getting tired now. QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Feb 27 2011, 02:54 PM) Well, statistically, there'll be 10 songs from each year in the top 100, and 1 song from each year in the top 10. Obviously, this isn't entirely true for two main reasons. Firstly, there'd be more songs from the earlier years, because they have longer to sell. Secondly, sales in general can vary from year to year. The sales in 2010 were so much higher than in, say, 2005. We don't know what trends will happen this decade. If sales steadily increase for the whole of the decade, then the 2010 songs might struggle. However, I doubt that will happen. I think during this decade, sales will get to a peak in the next few years, and then start dropping. Anyway, I think a song from 2010 should make the end of decade top 10. I think the highest-selling 2010 song as of 2019 will probably be Just the Way You Are. However, judging by last decade, the decade-end top 10 will probably be mainly charity songs and reality TV songs. I don't think reality TV will be as dominant as it was last decade, frankly. It will still exist but the days of it being guaranteed million-selling #1s will probably come to a close very shortly - especially when X Factor inevitably wanes (which could happen this year) and I doubt any other reality TV show will ever be able to match it in terms of success. The public are getting tired anyway, if any new show did come it would need a fresher format. And it's not necessarily that hard to predict sales trends - the more astute person could have predicted the decline in sales at the beginning of the 2000s by noticing the massive drop from 1999 to 2000 and linking it to the opening of sites like Napster, thus predicting an even further drop. Not necessarily obvious, but someone with a more of a keen mind could definitely have predicted it (and I wouldn't be surprised if some did, frankly). Going by what we see at the start of this decade now it's probably not unrealistic to link streaming into the UK charts somehow. I know there were rumours about it being incorporated recently, but I believe a spokesperson from the OCC said they wouldn't do it unless they felt it was absolutely necessary in the way people are consuming music is changing. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw that change in the next 8 years, really. This post has been edited by superbossanova: Feb 27 2011, 06:45 PM


danG View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 09:52 AM Post #12
🔥🚀🔥 Joined: 30 August 2010 Posts: 74,503 User: 11,746	As it's coming to the end of the year, which means 1 fifth of the decade has already gone I have decided to bump this thread so we can re-predict end of decade charts etc. Firstly I'm going to have fun quoting people QUOTE(danielGaGa @ Feb 27 2011, 02:45 PM) I know its really really early but what and how many of 2010s songs will appear in the end of decade top 100 - you can also guess 2011. Only 10 songs sold 1 million last decade (of course this is before SOF, IGF, PF, BL and Crazy all passed a million in 2010), so you can guess how many songs will sell a million this decade I wouldn't be suprised if the following made the end of decade top 10 or high top 20: Eminem - Love The Way You Lie Bruno Mars - Just The Way You Are Bruno Mars - Grenade Jessie J - Price Tag (its selling massively so can see this doing well) Rihanna - Only Girl In The World Matt Cardle - When We Collide. Oh, and the whole top 15 of 2010 and 'Firework' I can see making the end of decade top 100. 'What's My Name' by Rihanna maybe. Make your early predictions for the end of the decade. Wasn't I right on that one All of those have done well, except now I think Grenade will be lucky to make the decade top 20 as long as sales don't suddenly drop for the rest of the decade. QUOTE(MancunianGiraffe @ Feb 27 2011, 02:47 PM) Adele's "21" will be in the top 10 albums of the decade, along wih one greatest hits album - possibly by Rihanna. Not only that, but she's in the top 10 albums of all time QUOTE(chart wizard @ Feb 27 2011, 02:48 PM) probably the whole top 15 plus maybe Firework and She Said, it wasn't a particularly bad year for sales I think When We Collide, Love The Way You Lie, Just The Way You Are and Only Girl will all get over a million by the end of this year or next year Expect WWC that was right QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Feb 27 2011, 02:54 PM) I think the highest-selling 2010 song as of 2019 will probably be Just the Way You Are. Someone Like You? QUOTE(Bray @ Feb 27 2011, 02:59 PM) Charity songs don't seem to sell anywhere near as much as they used to - HH started off well but in the end 3/4 of its sales were in week 1 and another 1/6 were in week 2. The only way I can see there being a massive selling charity single again is if there's a Band Aid 30 version of DTKIC? in 2014. Although XF winner's singles could still finish highly, When We Collide looks like it'll only barely sell a million if at all and he was literally the most popular XF winner of all during the series (he came 2nd in the voting for live show 1 but won every single other vote, although his lead got smaller towards the end presumably due to his illness) so I doubt it somehow. As predicted charity singles aren't doing well at all but apart from Matt Cardle, winners singles aren't doing well (I can't see next years winners single doing well at all) QUOTE(superbossanova @ Feb 27 2011, 06:39 PM) Justin Bieber will definitely have the biggest single of the decade. I also think he'll have another one in the top 10, and another three more between 11-50. The Black Eyed Peas will also be in the top 10 with their modern twist on Cyndi Lauper's Girls Just Wanna Have Fun. I myself hope for a big 90s revival - some like Flo Rida have already started it (see Sugar) - as the 80s are getting tired now. I don't think reality TV will be as dominant as it was last decade, frankly. It will still exist but the days of it being guaranteed million-selling #1s will probably come to a close very shortly - especially when X Factor inevitably wanes (which could happen this year) and I doubt any other reality TV show will ever be able to match it in terms of success. The public are getting tired anyway, if any new show did come it would need a fresher format. Justin Bieber is already getting less popular here, so I think JB having a massive selling single is 90% not going to happen. There hasn't been a 90s revival as yet but we've had lots of eurodance come in like it did in the 90s. And you're right about reality TV and X Factor popularity going down. ---- Let's predict then you could be right (or terribly wrong) like these people above I think SLY, JTWYA, LTWYL, OG(ITW) and MLJ are guaranteed for a top 10 placing at the decade end (we only got 10 million sellers last decade but I think we'll get more this one and PRA, PT will just miss out) We Found Love should sell a million too sometime next year. Any song selling 750k+ is guaranteed to be in the decade top 100, this includes the whole T10 of the year to date and Military Wives after 3 weeks. Ed Sheeran will probably get a massive number one with his lead single from album #2 - remember I said it first The Black Eyed Peas' massively hyped comeback single in 2014 will be a million seller and David Guetta is long overdue a number one. This post has been edited by *xmasG*: Dec 24 2011, 09:54 AM


Soy Adrián View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 10:02 AM Post #13
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	QUOTE(xmasG @ Dec 24 2011, 09:52 AM) Someone Like You? It was released this year? I can see about 20-25 million sellers this decade. There'll be four or five from 2011 within the next few months and while I can't see sales continuing to rise as much as they have recently, it should be going strong for the foreseeable future at least. "21" will most likely be the decade's biggest album. I still stand by a Rihanna Greatest Hits being massive almost on an "Immaculate Collection" level, and GaGa should score at least one more million-selling album along with a couple of platinum singles. Muse will also release a Greatest Hits and it will become their first million seller, and both they and The Killers will score low-selling #1 singles next year.


danG View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 10:34 AM Post #14
🔥🚀🔥 Joined: 30 August 2010 Posts: 74,503 User: 11,746	QUOTE(X M A S ? @ Dec 24 2011, 10:02 AM) It was released this year? that's why I put a ":lol:" emoticon in it - of course we didn't know that ADELE would have a massive selling number one at the start of the year, but that's part of the fun of predicting. I'm with you about the Rihanna Greatest Hits, I won't be surprised if she does that after the Talk That Talk era has died off (probably next christmas to cash-in) I don't think that Muse and The Killers could get #1 singles, but indie music is long overdue a comeback and I think with Coldplay 'Paradise' being massive and Gotye 'Somebody That I Used To Know' going to be a future smash indie songs will get more popular This post has been edited by *xmasG*: Dec 24 2011, 10:36 AM


Klumzee View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 10:44 AM Post #15
#TeamAnneMarie Joined: 3 July 2010 Posts: 18,270 User: 11,421	QUOTE(xmasG @ Dec 24 2011, 10:34 AM) that's why I put a ":lol:" emoticon in it - of course we didn't know that ADELE would have a massive selling number one at the start of the year, but that's part of the fun of predicting. But you were talking about the biggest song from 2010 in the EOD charts


PaPa Ri View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 10:55 AM Post #16
JanWasRobbed Joined: 20 February 2009 Posts: 8,229 User: 8,335	Amen to a rock comeback to the charts!


Brer View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 11:09 AM Post #17
I'll just stick around and do some more damage Joined: 14 February 2009 Posts: 115,023 User: 8,300	I don't think OG(ITW) will finish anywhere near the top 10, I can see there being loads of million sellers this decade and OG(ITW) has crawled to the million and isn't selling much on top of it. Muse and The Killers getting #1 hits seems highly unlikely (a very welcome prospect but a highly unlikely one nonetheless) unless this Gotye song is actually a hit and actually manages to return indie/rock/alternative music back to the mainstream. I do think a Muse Greatest Hits would be huge though and that a Rihanna Greatest Hits would be Immaculate Collection-scale enormous. Taking into account trickle sales over the years I think the barrier for the top 100 of the decade could end up being over 800k barring an unforeseeable massive slump in sales. '21' is absolutely guaranteed the #1 album of the decade. Another massive sales phenomenon like this is not going to happen, I guarantee it. I also think we could see at least one non-top-10 hit in the top 100, massive selling non-top-10 hits seem to be getting a lot more commonplace of late. Maybe Set Fire To The Rain could sneak in if it's a strong trickle seller. This post has been edited by Michael Bubré: Dec 24 2011, 11:13 AM


danG View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 11:41 AM Post #18
🔥🚀🔥 Joined: 30 August 2010 Posts: 74,503 User: 11,746	QUOTE(Klumzee @ Dec 24 2011, 10:44 AM) But you were talking about the biggest song from 2010 in the EOD charts oh sorry didn't read that one correctly in that case I think Eric's right - I thought he was referring to the biggest selling song of the decade, in 2019. [/braindeadmoment]


Scene View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 11:42 AM Post #19
This is where you end and I begin Joined: 9 March 2008 Posts: 13,177 User: 5,567	I think Adele is a certainty for a decade-end top 10 album. I'm actually wondering whether there will even be an album countdown by 2019. Sales (bar Adele obviously) are looking terrible for albums and I don't know whether they can last another 9 years. I think 'Someone Like You' could definitely be the biggest-selling non-charity single of the decade. If single sales increase throughout the decade, SLY still has the benefit of being released earlier in the decade and therefore has more time to increase sales. If single sales decrease throughout the decade, SLY is in a better position. I agree with the notion of reality TV and charity singles dying out. Although there could always be a shock several years down the line. I do think (and kind of hope for the sake of our generation) that a Band Aid 30 will come about in 2014. Imagine who would be on it - Adele surely (I can't see her going anywhere for a few years yet) and Take That if they are still relevant. Bear in mind that the 100 year anniversary of WWI is coming up (whether it is in 2014 or 2018 i am not sure) so there will probably be a huge charity single for that. In terms of other predictions, I really can't even think of any this early on. Who knows what could happen in 7 years? Maybe Destiny's Child will reunite, Frankie Cocozza will unleash an overwhelming singing voice and Christina Milian will come back bigger than ever! QUOTE(Bray @ Feb 27 2011, 03:59 PM) Although XF winner's singles could still finish highly, When We Collide looks like it'll only barely sell a million if at all and he was literally the most popular XF winner of all during the series (he came 2nd in the voting for live show 1 but won every single other vote, although his lead got smaller towards the end presumably due to his illness) so I doubt it somehow. But the voting demographic of XF is completely different to the music-buying public. Obviously this was posted in February but Alexandra's 'Hallelujah' sold more than Joe's 'The Climb' despite 2008 having lower sales than 2009 and she didn't do nearly as well as Joe in the votes - I believe Joe never left the top 5 and topped the vote on around 5 occasions while Alexandra only topped the vote twice (week 8 and the final) and in live shows 1 and 2, she was 6th (of 12) and 7th (of 11) I believe. Furthermore, she was one away from the bottom two in week 7. I'll stop ranting now. This post has been edited by SceneofSIXCrimes: Dec 24 2011, 11:43 AM


danG View member profile	Dec 24 2011, 11:51 AM Post #20
🔥🚀🔥 Joined: 30 August 2010 Posts: 74,503 User: 11,746	I think if there is a Band Aid 30 they will do either 1 - try to urbanise it (they already did in 2004 by adding a Dizzee rap I know) by including raps by Dizzee Rascal, Tinie Tempah and the next big UK rapper - and it will relatively flop 2 - Simon Cowell will make sure all his acts are on it - and it will relatively flop 3 - make ADELE and Ed Sheeran sing most of the song - and it will be a massive sucess (I think they'll still be relevant by then, most definately ADELE and I don't think Ed will go away anytime soon if we're about to have an indie revival)