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BuzzJack Music Forum _ News and Politics _ 2018 Political Predictions
Posted by: Andrew. 25th December 2017, 09:59 PM
Merry Christmas political chums 
- Labour will spend the year maintaining their small read, with some of the 2017 voter intake moving to the Lib Dems over their Brexit policy as effects begin to be felt but that being balanced out by the Tories poor work on the deal losing them some votes, although they never fall below c.35% due to the loyal Brexit faithfuls having no alternative
- UKIP fade into complete irrelevance if they weren’t there already
- Polls at the end of 2018: LAB 39 CON 36 LIB 14 SNP/PC 4 GREEN 2 UKIP 2
- Not much goes on in Scotland with IndyRef2 remaining uncertain although the FM will maintain she plans to hold it. Lab win some votes in the polls from Tories who were only voting blue tacitly in the first place as ‘only they could stop the SNP’ but lose votes to the SNP and Lib Dems due to their Brexit policy.
- Scottish Polls: SNP 38, LAB 30, CON 21, LIB 8
- Trump has more socially backwards and incompetentent policies but gets through the year again without a major scandal although the Dems make a lot of ground in the elections
Posted by: vidcapper 27th December 2017, 10:17 AM
I can't see much of a difference in the polls over the year, though it's bound to vary somewhat due to whatever events occur
I would say Lab 42, Con 40, LD 10, others 8
Posted by: Qassändra 28th December 2017, 02:33 AM
Assessing my predictions this time last year first:
- French elections: Montebourg narrowly wins the Socialist Party nomination over Valls. Bayrou refuses to pull out and Emmanuel Macron's campaign implodes bigly, in part down to his 'apps will solve everything!'-esque vacuity. Despite Francois Fillon doing everything he can to antagonise the left, he holds on to enough elderly social conservatives that were dabbling with Front National to beat Le Pen in the run-off.
- German elections: Merkel stays in despite losing seats and forms another grand coalition with the SPD, who see seat losses despite the hyped return of Martin Schulz - though in part due to the re-entry into Parliament of the FDP and the entry of AfD, which causes sharp falls in top-up list seats for the major parties.
Taking this one, given we're probably going to get GroKo II.
- Brexit negotiations become an ongoing car-crash in the wake of constant provocation of negotiators by Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox. Theresa May's plan (and best hand) to preserve single market access for sectors such as financial services by paying more into the EU budget is received with unbridled fury by morons who seem to think it deeply unreasonable that the UK can't have its cake and eat it. The wider public begins to shuffle nervously on its feet as inflation shoots up thanks to sterling tanking. Theresa May ends the year sorely regretting not calling that snap election as Ukip are revived by the return of hardcore Brexiteers. Newspapers begin to talk up the prospect of unilaterally exiting on the harshest WTO terms in 2018, for pride reasons or something.
- Labour continue to be completely f***ing irrelevant and spend the year continuing to be caught between two stools and choosing to satisfy neither side. Corbyn voters begin to shift uneasily on their feet as Corbyn's complete inability to set the agenda becomes ever more transparent, particularly after the Conservatives gain Copeland in February. Chastened by the last leadership election backbench rebels hold fire, but grassroots murmurs shift to talking about when Corbyn will go, not if. Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry and Clive Lewis spend all year in a tense rivalry to be seen as the natural successor: Keir Starmer through keeping his head down and performing well in the Brexit brief, and Thornberry and Lewis through attempting to establish themselves as the Corbynism with competence candidate (but without Owen Smith's betrayal). Keep an eye out for how all three place themselves on the immigration dividing line.
Predicted the Copeland gain! Totally f***ed it otherwise! (though in my defence without the election I think this would've continued to be the case)
- Len McCluskey is re-elected general secretary of Unite.
- The Lib Dems make it to the heady heights of the mid-teens in the polls again and win another by-election. The polls at the end of 2017: CON 34, LAB 21, UKIP 18, LD 17, SNP 4, GRN 4
LOL
- Keith Ellison is elected as DNC chair as the Democrats decide to accept the Sanders agenda wholesale for 2020. An attempt to impeach Trump is made early on on the basis of his business conflicts of interest. Despite being entirely legally justified, it falls in the House as Republicans spit blood at an "attempted subversion of democracy", with Breitbart christening it the 'cuck coup'.
- Media outlets that criticise the Trump administration are denied White House press access, leading to a chilling effect on political reporting and an awakening of a resistance-mentality approach to reporting among a few select outlets that refuse to be cowed. Teen Vogue becomes the unlikely must-read magazine of the liberal elites.
Eh, half and half.
- Riots occur across major US cities after Trump's full throated support of the police when a police officer is caught on camera beating and killing a black man in custody. An assassination attempt or terrorist attack leads to Trump declaring a state of emergency.
- Vladimir Putin invades a Baltic NATO nation specifically to provoke the fallout from Trump's likely refusal to abide by the invocation of Article 5, putting the existence of NATO in chaos. This unprecedented break in US foreign policy leads to John McCain and Lindsey Graham defecting to the Libertarian Party, and not much else.
Christ I'd spun into full on bleak by this point. LONG MAY THIS CONTINUE TO NOT HAPPEN
Posted by: Qassändra 28th December 2017, 04:00 AM
- Labour and the Conservatives continue to nip at each other in the polls at the 40-all level for most of the year, with *maybe* some seepage to take Labour to the mid-40s and sag the Tories to the mid-30s. The 2018 locals see Labour absolutely demolish it in London and make decent seat gains nationally thanks to their rise since 2014, but gain relatively fewer councils nationwide than expected thanks to a stronger than expected turnout for the Tories.
- Theresa May is still prime minister by the end of 2018, but a vote of no confidence is called among Tory MPs at some point by the hard Brexiteers out of dissatisfaction at the negotiations. May wins comfortably with at least 250 votes despite everyone still thinking she's useless, as the various factions other than the hard Brexiteers combine to back her in the hope of keeping her in place until after Brexit negotiations are completed.
- Labour's overwhelming performance in the cities compared with towns leads to another futile round of murmurs and fretting among Corbynsceptics over whether Corbyn can win a general election. Corbyn still leads with overwhelming support in the party by the end of the year. On succession plans, Angela Rayner becomes the default candidate of the party's right, while Emily Thornberry continues to flirt with the party base and maintains her position as the activists' darling. The radical left begin to panic as Rebecca Long-Bailey fails to establish herself with supporters as the natural successor to Corbyn and increasingly turn towards grooming Kate Osamor as their preferred candidate.
- UKIP marginally increase in the polls after Theresa May wins her vote of no confidence, despite Henry Bolton being utterly useless.
- Vince Cable either resigns or is close to resigning as leader of the Lib Dems after a year of failing to make headway. If he leaves, he is replaced uncontested by Jo Swinson. Layla Moran wins the deputy leader election. A fresh face sees the Lib Dems start hitting double figures again in the polls from time to time, but not consistently.
- GB poll average at the end of 2018: LAB 43, CON 37, LD 8, UKIP 7, NAT 3, GRN 2
- Richard Leonard and Ruth Davidson continue to marginally chip away at the SNP poll lead, with Leonard winning over some old-time religion voters and Davidson winning over some of the more centre-ground voters (of the type won over by the SNP council tax freeze) who increasingly lose patience with the SNP. The SNP still lead - by a whisker - the end of 2018. Murmurs start to gather around Davidson's future plans despite the bump as the Tories consistently poll in third place, leading to fretting columns rising back to the surface over whether the Tories can actually win in Scotland.
- Scottish poll average at the end of 2018: SNP 34, SLAB 32, SCON 27, SGREEN 3, SLD 2
- The 2018 US midterms see a wave election for the Democrats, who retake the House and the Senate with astounding gains, including winning both Arizona Senate seats after John McCain dies and unseating Ted Cruz in Texas. After a year of demonisation by Republican activists for 'obstructing' Trump's plans in the Senate, Susan Collins defects from the GOP to the Democrats after the election.
- Macron's plans for closer fiscal union in the EU27 fail despite support from Merkel and Schulz, thanks to co-ordinated opposition from the Netherlands, Greece, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland.
- Rhetoric flames throughout the year from Trump surrogates that special prosecutor Robert Mueller is leading a witch-hunt, culminating in Donald Trump ordering Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to fire him and Rosenstein resigning rather than doing so. Mueller's investigation concludes that Trump colluded with Russia in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election. The Democrats announce they will immediately bring articles of impeachment against Trump once Congress is seated after the midterms in January 2019. Republicans in Congress say Trump's actions are worrying and Mueller's charges persuasive but most fall short of saying they will vote for Trump's impeachment. The US heads into 2019 facing the nightmare scenario of Trump's guilt being established but the required supermajority for impeachment not being present in the Senate.
Posted by: Andrew. 28th December 2017, 10:26 PM
- Scottish poll average at the end of 2018: SNP 34, SLAB 32, SCON 27, SGREEN 3, SLD 2
I think most of the centre-ground voters have already moved over to Davidson tbh. A bigger concern for us coming into the year and from the election is Labour who were very close to taking a lot more seats from us, I'm not saying the Tory gains in rural and traditionally conservative areas aren't a worry but we expected most of them would fall before the election anyway (with the exception of maybe Stirling and we were very hopeful in Gordon). Labour closing in on us wasn't something we saw coming and appealing to those voters who Corbyn appealed to is a huge priority.
Posted by: Soy Adrián 29th December 2017, 09:06 PM
- Theresa May is still prime minister by the end of 2018, but a vote of no confidence is called among Tory MPs at some point by the hard Brexiteers out of dissatisfaction at the negotiations. May wins comfortably with at least 250 votes despite everyone still thinking she's useless, as the various factions other than the hard Brexiteers combine to back her in the hope of keeping her in place until after Brexit negotiations are completed.
- Labour's overwhelming performance in the cities compared with towns leads to another futile round of murmurs and fretting among Corbynsceptics over whether Corbyn can win a general election. Corbyn still leads with overwhelming support in the party by the end of the year. On succession plans, Angela Rayner becomes the default candidate of the party's right, while Emily Thornberry continues to flirt with the party base and maintains her position as the activists' darling. The radical left begin to panic as Rebecca Long-Bailey fails to establish herself with supporters as the natural successor to Corbyn and increasingly turn towards grooming Kate Osamor as their preferred candidate.
- UKIP marginally increase in the polls after Theresa May wins her vote of no confidence, despite Henry Bolton being utterly useless.
- Vince Cable either resigns or is close to resigning as leader of the Lib Dems after a year of failing to make headway. If he leaves, he is replaced uncontested by Jo Swinson. Layla Moran wins the deputy leader election. A fresh face sees the Lib Dems start hitting double figures again in the polls from time to time, but not consistently.
- GB poll average at the end of 2018: LAB 43, CON 37, LD 8, UKIP 7, NAT 3, GRN 2
- Richard Leonard and Ruth Davidson continue to marginally chip away at the SNP poll lead, with Leonard winning over some old-time religion voters and Davidson winning over some of the more centre-ground voters (of the type won over by the SNP council tax freeze) who increasingly lose patience with the SNP. The SNP still lead - by a whisker - the end of 2018. Murmurs start to gather around Davidson's future plans despite the bump as the Tories consistently poll in third place, leading to fretting columns rising back to the surface over whether the Tories can actually win in Scotland.
- Scottish poll average at the end of 2018: SNP 34, SLAB 32, SCON 27, SGREEN 3, SLD 2
- The 2018 US midterms see a wave election for the Democrats, who retake the House and the Senate with astounding gains, including winning both Arizona Senate seats after John McCain dies and unseating Ted Cruz in Texas. After a year of demonisation by Republican activists for 'obstructing' Trump's plans in the Senate, Susan Collins defects from the GOP to the Democrats after the election.
- Macron's plans for closer fiscal union in the EU27 fail despite support from Merkel and Schulz, thanks to co-ordinated opposition from the Netherlands, Greece, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland.
- Rhetoric flames throughout the year from Trump surrogates that special prosecutor Robert Mueller is leading a witch-hunt, culminating in Donald Trump ordering Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to fire him and Rosenstein resigning rather than doing so. Mueller's investigation concludes that Trump colluded with Russia in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election. The Democrats announce they will immediately bring articles of impeachment against Trump once Congress is seated after the midterms in January 2019. Republicans in Congress say Trump's actions are worrying and Mueller's charges persuasive but most fall short of saying they will vote for Trump's impeachment. The US heads into 2019 facing the nightmare scenario of Trump's guilt being established but the required supermajority for impeachment not being present in the Senate.
Broadly agree and can't be arsed to do my own.
On the US points, I'd expect Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker to spend the year vying to be seen as acceptable to the Sanders wing of the Democrats with a lot of grandstanding against the GOP in the Senate and big statements on single payer healthcare etc. Bernie himself will probably continue to be Bernie, leading to speculation that he's going to run again in 2020.
Posted by: Qassändra 30th December 2017, 11:55 AM
Gillibrand is killing it at the moment, but I didn't bother making nominee predictions mostly as I remember Scott Walker, Jeb! and Chris Christie were the favourites for the Republicans in 2013.
Posted by: Brett-Butler 30th December 2017, 12:34 PM
I'll start with my predictions for 2017, and I'll put up my predictions for 2018 tomorrow.
1. UK Politics - both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives will gain a seat in by-elections. In the aftermath of the Conservative by-election victory, there will be a groundswell of support among the press and many MPs for Teresa May to call an immediate General Election, which will come to nothing and peter out after a few weeks.
Jeremy Corbyn will still be the Labour leader come the end of 2017, and with no leadership challenges for his position for the current year. Although there will be rumours that several major Labourites will defect to the Lib Dems, aside from a few token shadow cabinet resignations, it will be business (or no business?) as usual for Labour.
I'd take that as a "correct", albeit if I thought there'd be a General Election in 2017 I wouldn't have predicted that.
UKIP will continue to maintain the same level of support, finishing 2nd in several by-elections but not breaking through in any meaningful way. Nuttall will do the impossible and see out the year without Farage taking the reigns again.
A swing & a miss. No Scottish referendum called, and SNP's power has diminished slightly this year.
Arlene Foster will resign as First Minister in Northern Ireland, with Nigel Dodds taking over as DUP Leader/1st Minister. This results in a by-election in Belfast North, which Brett-Butler will stand in as an independent candidate on a strong Battenberg platform (and he will insist that his fellow members of Buzzjack hold him to his word on this if the prediction of a Belfast North by-election happens in 2017).
Brett-Butler did not stand in the General Election on a strong Battenberg platform.
2. French presidential elections - In the first round, Marine Le Pen will get the most votes by a margin of 5% over Les Repubicans in 2nd place. In the run-off, this will be reversed, with Les Republicans winning the presidency with 55% of the vote.
Like most people, I didn't see Macron making the final two (and winning in the first round), although I called Le Pen making the run-off. Macron however has proven himself to be quite racist as President.
3. German elections - despite a strong challenge from the far-right AfD, Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats will still remain in power as part of a coalition. However, its minor coalition partner will make her resignation as chancellor one of the key terms of their partnership, and she will not be in power by the end of 2017.
I also predict that there will be a major terrorist attack in either France or Germany in the first 3 months of 2017, although I pray to God that it is one prediction that I am wrong about.
I was wrong about this, however I did not predict the horrific terrorist attacks that took place in the UK.
The website https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ gives Trump an aggregate approval rating of 38%. The wall has not been built. Deportations in 2017 actually reduced compared to Obama's final year (2016) by 6%, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-obama-mexico-immigrants-deportations-remove-fewer-2016-2017-a8132461.html.
Posted by: Soy Adrián 30th December 2017, 01:35 PM
True, although I'd argue that it'll probably be easier to predict the frontrunners in the Dems' 2020 race than the GOP's in 2016. I feel like political journalists have a half decent grasp of the mechanics of the Democrat base now (particularly with the left already having 'emerged' with a stong-ish second place last time and continuing to shape the narrative, that won't be a surprise next time), whereas there was little to no understanding of just how Fox News-y the GOP base had become by the time the 2016 race came around.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 30th December 2017, 01:50 PM
Nobody predicted there would be a general election in 2017, and I certainly wouldn't have anywhere near predicted the result!
Right..
Well yes, but this was a pretty obvious prediction in hindsight - still, good use of around £1.5 million to look like you are sticking it to the so-called 'enemies of the people' eh Theresa?
FAIL. I think this was wishful thinking on my part - even at GE2017 there was still a substantial majority for the Tories here.
Inflation is at 3.1%, but interest rates have been raised to 0.5% - this was actually quite a shock given they hadn't moved before that for 10 years. Still think Carney won't move them any further however..
Thankfully proven wrong here, did not see Macron storming to the final two - always expected Le Pen to be there.
Well this could be interpreted a number of ways, broadly there has been some agreement and negotiation on the exit bill, citizenship rights of EU nationals and (a very loose) agreement on the future of the Republic of Ireland/Northern Ireland border but really what progress has there been? Also Merkel did struggle but has struggled so much to form a coalition that she still hasn't done it!
Expect more incorrect/dodgy predictions tomorrow from me.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2017, 01:45 PM
Ok so after the tumultuous global political events of 2016 and 2017, I think that 2018 will go down as relatively boring and quiet. Here are some things I think may happen though:
- A much weakened Angela Merkel will quickly form a coalition with the Social Democrats in January, still as Chancellor this decision will be taken quickly primarily to avoid another election and prevent a further rise in the support for the AfD.
- The ongoing Catalonia/Spain crisis will deepen further with each entrenching in their respective positions and no real resolution agreed by the end of 2018.
- By-election held in South Thanet, caused by conviction of Craig Mackinlay ( tried for ‘knowingly making a false election expenses declaration’ relating to his 2015 general election expenses ) on 14 May 2018. Conservatives HOLD.
- Oil price continues a slow recovery through 2018 which has a knock-on effect of maintaining relatively high inflation in UK in spite of forecasts of it to ‘fall back’ to <2% it remains high in December 2018 at 2.5%. Interest rates HELD at near record lows of 0.5%.
- ‘Cost of Living Crisis’ returns as an increasing issue as wage inflation remains negative in ‘real terms’ forcing more of a squeeze on spending - productivity remains flat but GDP slightly outperforms OECD predictions and ends the year +1.5%.
- Putin easily wins reelection in Russia in March 2018 with over 50% of the vote.
- No general election is called despite further narrow defeats for the government, and the ‘EU Withdrawal Bill’ is passed early in 2018, and a transition period for leaving the EU is tentatively agreed with BAU rules extending discussions on a new trade deal through until 31 December 2020.
- Initial sketched out ‘Brexit’ deal is to be loosely similar to that of Canada’s recent free trade agreement (with bespoke UK specific differences), nobody is particularly happy with it (cue: much angry rhetoric in the papers) but it is sufficient to placate the ‘frothing Brexiteers’ - the issue of Northern Ireland / RoI border raises its head once again.
- Support in the UK remains split 50/50 for both ‘Brexit’ as well as the two main parties through the year with little change in opinion. Labour/Conservative end year near enough neck-and-neck in polls on 40%.
- Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May both end the year as leaders of their respective parties. Vince Cable too with some very good results in local elections in May. UKIP continue in the wilderness with Henry Bolton and lose yet further seats in local elections.
- Labour will move further towards a remain position with regard to single-market access and the customs union.
- No resolution on Northern Ireland Assembly crisis. Arlene Foster continues to refuse to resign over the ‘heating scandal’ and Sinn Féin continue to be locked in endless talks with the DUP which result in no resolution. Direct rule is eventually imposed later in 2018.
- Further damning revelations are released about the Trump campaign by Mueller, but he ends 2018 as the President. However, in the November midterms the Democrats do relatively well and take back a majority in midterm elections for the US House of Representatives - in the Senate they do not make any gains and the Republicans continue with a narrow majority.
Posted by: vidcapper 31st December 2017, 03:20 PM
[*]By-election held in South Thanet, caused by conviction of Craig Mackinlay ( tried for ‘knowingly making a false election expenses declaration’ relating to his 2015 general election expenses ) on 14 May 2018. Conservatives HOLD.
This is an interesting one, as one of the usual punishments is for the result to be declared null & void. But since the allegations are about an election result that has already been superceded, I don't see how that sanction could be applied in this case?
Posted by: Suedehead2 31st December 2017, 03:28 PM
If he gets a custodial sentence of more than six months he will have to resign. Otherwise, I suspect he would lose the Tory whip. That might then make it more likely that the Commons would vote to discipline him, leaving the way open for a potential recall vote.
Of course, all of that is dependent on the outcome of the court case.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2017, 06:22 PM
Of course, all of that is dependent on the outcome of the court case.
Indeed.
The sentence can be up to twelve months so if convicted he would likely have to resign.
Posted by: vidcapper 1st January 2018, 06:55 AM
The sentence can be up to twelve months so if convicted he would likely have to resign.
I always find the phrase 'up to x' to be rather ironic, since it is very rare that criminals receive the maximum allowable sentence. I expect that if he were convicted, he would be more likely to receive a non-custodial sentence - why take up prison space with someone who is no physical threat to the public?
Posted by: Qassändra 7th January 2018, 05:58 PM
I think Thanet South could be a Labour gain if it comes to a by-election you know. Outside chance, but I think it's possible.
Posted by: vidcapper 8th January 2018, 06:32 AM
The chance of a Labour gain in a by-election is a lot higher than there being a by-election in the first place.
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