Printable version of thread

Posted by: Padamic Tension 5th February 2024, 02:50 PM

Jay's edit:

Predict how Taylor Swift's upcoming studio album 'The Tortured Poets Department' will do in the UK by voting in the above poll!

View this post on Instagram

--------------

Post by Padamic Tension which was originally in the Friday Chart Predictions thread:

I just feel its total overkill by Taylor doing another album so soon, i know her fans will disagree but it just feels like she is is releasing non stop.

Posted by: Jessie Where 5th February 2024, 03:17 PM

I do agree, I mean I like a bit of TayTay as much as the next person but it's beyond overkill at this point. I was hoping for at least a 2-year break from her once all the Taylor's Versions releases were complete.

Posted by: John-James 5th February 2024, 03:46 PM

It only feels too soon because of the re-recordings, it will be around 18 months since Midnights which is pretty standard. You can't blame her for wanting to put out a brand album instead of re-recordings and a few vault tracks you wrote years ago.

Posted by: Tafty³³³ 5th February 2024, 03:47 PM

Tbf we probably will, once the TVs are all released. This is about a 16 month gap between Midnights and the new album. Yeah she released a couple of Taylor’s Versions in between but the TVs are never pushed as hard as a normal campaign so I donmt think it’s fair to hold those releases against her.

We should really blame Scooter and co for forcing their hand and not letting her buy her masters back.

Posted by: Azure 5th February 2024, 03:53 PM

I doubt Taylor will take a break until she's rereleased Reputation and her debut album. She'll probably squeeze in another new album after TTPD as well. She could wind up with another four charttoppers in the next few years.

Posted by: Anita Hanjaab 5th February 2024, 03:56 PM

Latest rumour has it she WAS told about the Scooter Braun sale and WAS offered the first option to buy them, but she went for the TV option instead!

Posted by: No Sleeep 5th February 2024, 04:30 PM

To be fair 99% of artists don’t own their masters, that’s kind of the trade-off when you sign a record deal!

Posted by: Jessie Where 5th February 2024, 05:29 PM

Yeah but even outside the TV's she's been pumping out regular studio albums at an exhaustive rate aside from those, the Midnights era only just concluded. A little breather would be nice is all.

Posted by: 777666jason 5th February 2024, 06:23 PM

16 months before midnight's, 22 months before was Evermore, 4months Folklore although there's an argument that's 1 giant album 12 months lover

That's kind of the opposite of what you said if we take out TVs

Posted by: No Sleeep 5th February 2024, 06:48 PM

That is a very very short time between albums though? It’s similar to Rihanna from 2005-2012 except with the way streaming works, those songs never really go away - look at Cruel Summer! When Dua started the Future Nostalgia era, Taylor had just released Lover, by the time it finished she was almost onto Midnights - 4 albums (and 2 TVs) later! It’s an excessive amount of music to be putting out and you really can’t discount the TVs as they’re made up of so many new/“unreleased” tracks. I mean it’s clearly working for her but personally, I AM TIRED!

Posted by: Brer 5th February 2024, 06:50 PM

Well yes the gaps between her releases look longer if you ignore some of the releases

She has still been making a separate 'era' to some degree out of each of the re-recordings (not as extensively as for her main albums but it's not like they were low-key releases) so I think it's pretty valid to include them when commenting on how relentless her release schedule has been. And even if you do ignore them the gaps you've quoted there are still not that long in the grand scheme of things!

Plus in the interim between releases she's not exactly gone silent, she pretty regularly churns out new vault tracks / belated streaming releases for previously physical only songs. It really does feel like she's been in constant release mode for the best part of the last 5 years.

Posted by: Anita Hanjaab 5th February 2024, 06:50 PM

Yeah it's waay too much. She needs to calm doqn and go a bit slower. Give the harts some breathin space

Posted by: Jessie Where 5th February 2024, 07:36 PM

I completely fail to see how 🤷‍♂️ but hey ho

Posted by: 777666jason 5th February 2024, 11:48 PM

Clearly the public doesn't care what you think she almost did 200k of 1989 TV an album practically 10 years old so the public demand is clearly there

Posted by: Brer 5th February 2024, 11:50 PM

No one said it isn't? I'm confused x

Posted by: 777666jason 5th February 2024, 11:54 PM

Well complaining about oversatutation when 2 out the last 3 albums had her best numbers ever

Posted by: Jessie Where 6th February 2024, 12:02 AM

I also don't see how that correlates to me saying I feel like it's overkill? You addressed my post where I questioned your "logic" with something completely unrelated to try and look clever.

If you've got a point here, make it already.

Posted by: 777666jason 6th February 2024, 12:14 AM

It's only overkill when the public stop buying streaming it

Posted by: Brer 6th February 2024, 12:19 AM

He was just saying it feels like overkill to him personally. Nothing to do with popularity.

Posted by: Jessie Where 6th February 2024, 12:24 AM

Jesus Harold Christ 🤦‍♂️

I don't see the need to be that needlessly obnoxious, I even said I actually like her 🤷‍♂️

Posted by: Tafty³³³ 6th February 2024, 01:47 AM

Outside of the TV's, it's pretty normal for albums to be released 18-24 months apart, isn't it? (I could be wrong nowadays tbh) Back in the late 00's a pop act of Taylor's calibre had far less between eras (especially Q4 acts). The last single ('Karma') was released back in May.

It's just unfortunate for her that she had 'Cruel Summer' take off the way it did, so the gap feels more non-existent than it would if it was just each era with the TV's in between

Posted by: Bjork 6th February 2024, 08:56 AM

(This post originally from Feb 5 2024, 06:59 PM)
Taylor is a genius, the title being inspired by the whatsapp group that Joe Alwyn and Paul Mescal had after they broke up with Taylor and Phoebe Bridgers respectively, the Tortured Man Club 😀 genius

---------

(This post from Feb 6 2024, 08:56 AM)
As expected many people are already claiming overexposure. She can't be more overexposed than she already is, people have made Cruel Summer the supernova hit without Taylor doing anything at all, zero, nada... Her albums are all charting in the UK, she's been having 4/5 albums in the top 20 for the last year and that's with just touring the US. People obviously crave Taylor content plus her fanbase is so gigantic that even if she alienates 50% of them, there are still millions that remain... I say hit it while the iron is still hot. Better that that doing an Emeli Sande

Posted by: Fact Checker 6th February 2024, 10:14 AM

I personally feel it has reached saturation point, I don't dislike her in anyway and I know alot of it is the media's fault as they constantly use her in headlines attempting to gather clicks. For me personally I just don't really want to hear her anymore or see her name everywhere I look. I got the same way with Adele, but I am listening to her again, so I probably will listen to TS again, just not right now lol

Posted by: Bjork 6th February 2024, 11:48 AM

if someone think Adele is overexposed releasing 1 album every 5 years
then Taylor has no chance

she's not milking the TS versions, barely putting them out there but not pushing single after single
and as I said, most of the overexposure feeling is cos of Cruel Summer
but they haven't pushed that either
imagine if she had made a video x Cruel Summer or made a new version as a duet or something...
it's fand and people out there making Cruel Summer what it is, so don't blame Taylor

Posted by: Jessie Where 6th February 2024, 12:00 PM

It really isn't because of 'Cruel Summer', it's because this will be her 4th studio album in less than 3 years on top of everything else. I was hoping for a bit of a break after all the TV versions were wrapped up.

My instant reaction when I saw the new album announcement:

Posted by: DJ Cheeky Magpie 6th February 2024, 12:01 PM

Album chart just to many Taylor swift album in there another one clog up album chart

Posted by: Bjork 6th February 2024, 12:15 PM

and what you wanna do? delete albums that people are actually properly streaming unlike the Weekend playlist or Elton's playlist, these are propers albums being playlisted

stop complaining and do crochet instead

Posted by: -Jay- 6th February 2024, 12:35 PM

This froot looks familiar… https://forum.popjustice.com/threads/taylor-swift-the-tortured-poets-department-apr-19.75047/page-18#post-9199404



Lol

Posted by: Mangø 6th February 2024, 01:04 PM

Yes, I think the real solution is to move all of Taylor's albums into a separate chart!

Posted by: Liam sota 6th February 2024, 01:10 PM

I know a lot of people who solely listen to Taylor swift, nothing else

Posted by: No Sleeep 6th February 2024, 01:18 PM

That’s pretty depressing!

Posted by: Sour Candy 6th February 2024, 02:19 PM

My observation is that people who love/like Lana love/like Taylor and vice versa. They go hand in hand. Lana is big in streaming as well even though she is not getting as huge HITS as Taylor.

Posted by: Anita Hanjaab 6th February 2024, 02:31 PM

Posted by: sammy01 6th February 2024, 02:48 PM

I'm not sure Taylor is over exposed or even that exposed. My mum would know her name but not really any of her songs but she could name a few Adele or Ed songs.

Taylor just has a massive hardcore fanbase who stream her 24/7 and are a bit scary how much they worship her. She absolutely doesn't need the GP, not in the UK and I don't think that many of your average Joe cares or listens to her beyond her being on a playlist they might listen too.

It is basically Kylie times 10.

Posted by: Bjork 6th February 2024, 03:10 PM

I'd same the opposite, everybody knows Taylor now, especially the GP
My mum for instance lives in Spain, doesn't speak English or know any other singer that sings in English, and she knows Taylor.

Posted by: -Jay- 6th February 2024, 04:25 PM

These posts about Taylor Swift were originally in the Friday Chart Predictions thread, the discussion is now repurposed as an album predictor thread.

Also included a new poll

Remember that there is also a Taylor Swift forum to discuss her too! http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/Taylor-Swift-f177.html

Posted by: WhoOdyssey 6th February 2024, 04:28 PM

I know it's all anecdotal obviously, but I've just asked my mum (54) and she can't name a single Taylor Swift song.

Posted by: conorw 6th February 2024, 04:41 PM

I’m not sure sales wise. It already has a much larger pre order number than midnights did but it’ll depend on variants. I think it’ll open similarly to 1989tv did

Posted by: -Jay- 6th February 2024, 04:51 PM

I went with

Yes #1 (of course)
160,000 - 169,999 sales (which is well under Midnights' 204,501, so it could very well be an underestimation, but I just have a feeling that 'Poets' won't reach those heights in the UK)
No (I can see why people feel this way, but for me personally I'm not tired of her and I'm excited for this new album)

Posted by: Tafty³³³ 6th February 2024, 05:08 PM

I went for:

Yes > I think this is obvious? <
180k-189k > I think similarly to '1989 (TV)' numbers, butttt this doesn't have the Q4 sales period that both 'Midnights' & '1989 (TV)' had however I am pretty sure it will be over 150k. I guess we'll see what variants she'll give us. If any (more)! If it's just what we have now, I'll say 100k. But if we have a similar amount of variants as both 'Midnights' and '1989 (TV)' have, then closer to my choice of 180k. <
Don't Feel Strongly Either Way > I don't think she's as over exposed as many like to say/think she is, but I do understand why some may feel the way they do. <

Posted by: Jessie Where 6th February 2024, 05:10 PM

Yes (#1)
Around about 150k

I'm gonna go with no on the last option as I wasn't saying she's overexposed as such, more that she's overloading with constant releases and I feel exhausted!

Posted by: Tafty³³³ 6th February 2024, 05:12 PM

I think this is how I feel too tbh and a good way to describe it all really (and I get why it may be tiring to casuals/those who aren't fans)

Posted by: Envoirment 6th February 2024, 05:26 PM

I'm thinking #1 and definitely 100k+. I went with 120-130k as I feel the album is going to be in the same vain as Folklore & Evermore which won't have as much broad appeal as Midnights and 1989 (Taylor's Version) had. Although it's Taylor and she could end up doing 300k+ or something stupid.

In terms of overexposure - yes definitely. I can't wait until she finished the TVs and takes a break so she's not completely clogging chart and streaming around the world. Although I am looking forward to seeing her become the most certified artist in the world. She'll likely overtake Drake by the end of the decade at her current rate *_*

Also lol @ people saying the TVs don't count. They most certainly do, especially as they have produced multiple hits. If the UK didn't have a 3-track rule it would be pandamonium in the chart. *_*

We won't see the peak of Taylor in the UK until this summer when she comes here to tour doing 13 stadium dates include 8(!) dates in Wembley. She's going to have like the top 10 in the album chart to herself this summer.

Posted by: Sour Candy 6th February 2024, 05:34 PM

Easily over 200k

Posted by: seven. 6th February 2024, 05:35 PM

over 200k

#2 debut behind Everything Everything's eighth week at the top (the usb sticks are coming out that week)

Posted by: Brer 6th February 2024, 05:37 PM

Real

Posted by: TomJ1991 6th February 2024, 05:41 PM

I think the idea of an artist being "overexposed" only matters if they are pumping out an album every year, of poorer quality than they can achieve at their best. If she can still put out a top quality album that people love, then I don't think it matters.

Posted by: Steve201 6th February 2024, 05:50 PM

What I shouted out loud when I seen this 😂

She need to keep the exposure going don’t forget when she turns 35 she won’t get promo anymore 😬

Posted by: Steve201 6th February 2024, 05:52 PM

I thought the poll was for her single so voted 50-99k can I change to 190-199k for the album?

Posted by: -Jay- 6th February 2024, 06:08 PM

Done

Posted by: Tafty³³³ 6th February 2024, 06:19 PM

They aren't pushed as proper eras though. She kinda throws them out there with only hype off her name (and the fact they're re-records). 'All Too Well' got a video and was sent (I think it was anyway - or were radios just playing it coz they kinda had to? Icr) to radio, but it wasn't really promoted and only got traction due to Swifties being so heavy and loyal as a fanbase.

'I Can See You' got a video but didn't get a major push beyond first week hype. '1989' is just an unstoppable era overall and although it spawned a number 1 hit, that wasn't planned to be pushed as a single and kind of just happened to be one in the end because people gravitated to that track more than the intended one (which I believe was meant to be 'Slut!'). But even then, no videos were made and IION only got sent to radio because people were just naturally taking to it/it was a part of the re-record of her biggest era.

As a personal thing, it kinda irritates me that they are considered as different albums by people when really, they're just extensions (and at the moment alternatives) of those said albums But seeing people refer to her new album announcement as "TS11" reassures me that Taylor's Versions are just being used to replace the OG's rn.

Posted by: Envoirment 6th February 2024, 07:12 PM

Yet they last about as long as or longer than most artists' normal eras (one of the by-products of the streaming eras with people releasing 1-2 singles then the album and basically done with the era). She most certainly doesn't "kinda throws them out there" - they are planned with many formats for the albums, a number of original songs and a music video or two filmed.

Additionally, everytime a TV album is released her whole catalogue gets a boost.

It's amazing just what level she's on and for the most part her overexposure isn't entirey her fault. Like for instance her new boyfriend - she gets more screen time when watching one of his games than he does during the game (media's fault)

Posted by: Steve201 6th February 2024, 07:15 PM

Cheers!

Posted by: sammy01 6th February 2024, 07:17 PM

She hasn't had one of those hits that you just cant escape from like Someone like you, Hello or Shape of you. We are also in an era where tv performances are so few. You can be absolutely huge these days but still be sort of in a bubble. Like she is huge on Instagram but only if you use Instagram or follow her does that matter.

Adele/Ed at their peak were everywhere, Brits, X factor, big TV chat shows, ITV specials and so on. You can easily not really know a Taylor Swift song or who she really is if you want.

Most people wont even know how many albums Taylor has. Again it isn't like Adele where you were hit in the face with a big stand with her new album in every supermarket.

What Taylor does have is fans now can add waaaaay more sales to an artist than before. The multiple formats and endless streaming mean Taylor fans add way more album sales to her now than my 1 copy of Spice back in 1996 that I played endlessly.

Posted by: Sour Candy 6th February 2024, 07:27 PM

To be fair nobody knows any more with all the TVs etc

Posted by: Steve201 6th February 2024, 07:46 PM

Tbf to Taylor she’s American so won’t be on our tv as much and most older people like Whoys mum will have heard of her just maybe can’t name a song.

Posted by: spiceboy 6th February 2024, 07:47 PM

Favourite gif everrr

Posted by: Liam sota 6th February 2024, 07:54 PM

I think that Taylor’s popularity and name recognition has never been higher. A lot of her older music has been played to death and thus anything new is a good change. Given the fact it’ll be hyped to oblivion too I can see extremely high numbers but I’m not familiar with UK album sale numbers. For US I can see near a million for UK probably 180-220 range.

Posted by: Padamic Tension 6th February 2024, 08:27 PM

A definite number 1 and i think 100k and 1000% think she is overexposed, and its total overkill.

Posted by: spiceboy 6th February 2024, 09:23 PM

I think #1 and between 110-120k. I don't have strong feelings about overexposure but that is because I am a very casual fan and I don't feel like she is 'everywhere' like other huge artists of her calibre. She has never quite been omnipresent like Adele, Spice Girls, Ed Sheeran were so you can choose to take what you want from her.

I guess for those who follow the charts or her career more may feel different.

Posted by: Tafty³³³ 6th February 2024, 10:03 PM

They last longer than most artists' normal eras because it's Taylor Swift. The biggest artist in the world right now. I imagine if she was to release a live album (something that major artists have done but are never guaranteed #1) or something, it would storm to #1 with sales that most artists now would die for on opening week, and it'd still hang around due to it being Taylor. I feel like '1989' is the only TV album that had so many variants (like a "normal" album release). 'Fearless' and 'Red' most certainly didn't. 'Speak Now' had 3 different shades of purple (and weren't staggered iirc - all on sale at the same time, so people had a choice whether to buy all 3 or just one etc..) vinyl, but was pushed aside almost immediately as not long after that (about a month or so? Icr) she announced '1989 TV'.

But even with those, they hang around the charts, sure, but Taylor never really promotes them beyond their first weeks like she would a new album. So I would definitely say they are more or less "just thrown out there", regardless of how many formats are available etc... (which surely only benefits mainly in the opening week sales? - not sure I can think of many people who would think, week 3 into an albums release "oh I should get all of those variants of that album")

EDIT: Also the last part about her getting more screen time etc... someone worked it out and she gets like half a minute of screen time across and entire 3+ hours game of Football

Idk... I think (most) people would know 'Shake It Off' was a Taylor Swift song...

Posted by: spiceboy 6th February 2024, 10:13 PM

This is a good example tbf, I didn't think of that one.

Posted by: ...ready for it 7th February 2024, 01:43 AM

It's not overkill for me!

Posted by: JLJ 7th February 2024, 07:50 AM

An easy #1 debut and very possibly the highest opening sales of the year too. I think it will be in excess of 150k but perhaps falling short of what Midnights managed. It could be higher if there’s a pre album single what takes off but if it’s a we get everything with the album I’m expecting around that figure.

I do think she could also manage a #1 single here on release week too as streaming will no doubt be huge but will probably have three tracks inside the top 5 come release week anyways.

Finally, I can see why some may feel Taylor’s overexposed to me she’s not quite reached take an immediate break levels yet. In the streaming era where TV and promotion in general isn’t as focused upon you doing well you can easily just choose to not listen to Taylor / follow her releases - you might see them promoted but you can just as easily be unaware. I do think a break will benefit her once her Eras tour and re-recordings are complete though.

It’s not quite the same as she wasn’t re-recording past work but Rihanna’s schedule through from 2007 - mid 2013 felt a lot more
prominent (particularly from the Rated R release through to mid 2013) but that was in a paid sales era with albums dropping at a quick rate mixed with touring, relentless promo and radio play and also featuring as a guest artist on other releases.

Posted by: Dante77 7th February 2024, 09:29 AM

Overexposed yes, and whilst she has a zillion fans, my socials are full of people who clearly don't rate her - She's becoming more marmite by the day.

She does little for me musically, but I do recognise her song writing brilliance - although there is a real sameness about her themes, and lately not much evolution. I mean how many more songs can there be about English boys that have done her wrong! I also find her whole girl-squad antics really childish. Back to the topic, yes it will be a huge No.1, but I'm predicting that we are at the peak of Taylor's imperial phase, and I wonder whether the appetite will be there in 5 years time.

Posted by: Mangø 7th February 2024, 09:40 AM

6 people genuinely believe this won't get to #1 and will open with less than 50k? Are they on drugs or are they just trolling?

Could one of those people justify why they went for that? If it's genuine, I'd love to hear your reasoning!

Posted by: danG 7th February 2024, 10:01 AM

186k will be my random guess, don't see it doing quite as well as Midnights but will be huge regardless

(and #2 behind a surprise Adele coming back rollier than ever)

Posted by: GraceAJX 7th February 2024, 12:46 PM

I'm almost certain it will cross 200K, and most likely will sell more than Midnights. There are bound to be some more variants, etc, too.

As for the "overexposure" argument, it seems she is almost immune to it, and her popularity isn't faltering at all. And people having a problem with her releasing albums are just weird, she's a musician so it's kiiiiinda her job (did you get used to lazy artists waiting 8 years to put out their album whilst stringing their fans along? lol)

Posted by: 777666jason 7th February 2024, 02:04 PM

Went with 100k , it's a tricky one as the title screams folklore/ Evermore, which weren't massive out the block but have massive longevity,

But then noone expected 200k for midnight's, also when was the last time Q2 release did over 100k,

Posted by: John-James 7th February 2024, 03:12 PM

Harry Styles?

Posted by: WhoOdyssey 7th February 2024, 03:14 PM

Harry's House sold 113,812 in its first week.

Posted by: 777666jason 7th February 2024, 03:16 PM

Yeah just looked Harry's house opened up with 113k in May 2022, thought it was longer than that

Posted by: WhoOdyssey 7th February 2024, 05:17 PM

It’s crazy to think that ‘Fine Line’ debuted behind Rod Stewart and Stormzy - I don’t think that would happen now!

Hopefully it’ll reach #1 with an anniversary re-release in the future.

Posted by: Supercell 7th February 2024, 08:19 PM

I opted for No1 and over 200k. Personally I’m not surprised she’s releasing the 11th album this year as many have said, she’s pretty much chucked one out every 2 years roughly, more the timing I was surprised at as I thought she’d have picked Q4.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if she challenges 30 or beats it for first week sales. So 250/300k with a massive second week drop wouldn’t surprise me, depends on how exhausted everyone is by then and of course how the album is received.

I can see why people are making the overexposed comments and I sort of agree, it’s more saturation at this point. Even though the TVs are fundamentally not new albums the promotion/hype around them (especially 1989) it does feel a bit like we’ve just had an era of sorts, so I can see why people are a bit worn out. Personally I’m intrigued to see how it sounds, I feel like it might be in the same vibe as midnights.

Posted by: Envoirment 7th February 2024, 08:38 PM

Overexposure doesn't equate to popularity though. You can be hugely successful/popular and overexposed (Taylor) or the opposite can happen and you're overexposed and unpopular. I would say she's immune to it from a chart perspective, but her personal life seems to suffer (people tracking her private jet, stalkers etc unfortunately).

Also I don't have any problem with her releasing albums - I was disputing the TVs almost being excluded as eras by some when (due in part to how huge Taylor is) they are more successful/massive than 99% of normal albums other artists bring out. Once her latest album is released, she would've released/re-released 8 albums in 4 years which is an insane pace (might be 9 if she releases the Reputation TV later this year).

I 100% wish my favourite artists released as regularly as Taylor (just her normal album pace!).

I think another factor to also consider is the way social media and their alogorithms work. As someone who really enjoys pop music, it's not surprising I tend to see lots of things about Taylor on social media etc. Whereas others may not have Taylor appear on their timelines. So that also plays a factor into whether some feel like she's overexposed or not.

All in all though I'm looking forward to seeing just how big her numbers get, but I am also looking forward to her (hopefully) taking a well deserved break once she's finished with the TVs, touring and original albums (I have a feeling she's going to release another original album before or after releasing her final TV).

Posted by: Padamic Tension 7th February 2024, 09:55 PM

I think one of the problems about the current over exposue is that in time none of the recent eras will stand out from each other, i know the music scene has changed a lot that way, but its nice to be able to relate songs to certain eras for artists years after the release and for me i find all of Taylors recent releases feel like they are from one on going release.

Posted by: Roba. 8th February 2024, 02:36 AM

#1
150-159k
Doesn't Feel Strong Either Way. Although I guess I could do with it not every couple of months but honestly I'd feel most were most artists could be overexposed if they were ever present in the chart without having some semi big breathers in between lol!

Posted by: jimwatts 8th February 2024, 07:27 AM

Went with over 200k (#1), think it could do anything up to 250k, but equally wouldn't be surprised with 170-180k or 180-190k, it's just that those are smaller brackets. Huge sales by 2024 standards anyway.

Don't feel strongly either way, probably not as everything she's put out seems to be well-received by her fanbase. Perhaps the difference with Ed a couple of years ago was the number of high-profile collaborations he was appearing on (similar with Rihanna in the early 2010s and Khalid around 2018) which meant continuous exposure outside the more receptive audience.

Posted by: Sour Candy 8th February 2024, 07:42 AM

This discussion of "over saturation" is interesting. Her fanbase is huge and she has gained so many new fans since the Lover era (which now in retrospect, was a tiny underperformance until the album tracks went viral). She is a master of moving the fanbase, and her hardcore fans (millions around the world) will do anything for her.

But when it comes to general public, I don't know if Taylor actually has many classic songs/albums that everybody knows? Cruel Summer is going to be one, Shake It Off, Blank Space, maybe something else? It will be very interesting to take a look at her legacy hits-wise in, let's say 20 years. Many of her high charting hits (like the recent #1 Is It Over Now) have had zero or very little impact in broader scale.

Posted by: Bjork 8th February 2024, 07:48 AM

Shake it off, Blank Space and Anti-Hero everybody knows

Posted by: GTH 8th February 2024, 07:51 AM

As an album of all new material with time for pre-orders to build, I would be surprised if this didn’t scrape 100k.

As for overexposed, it does feel like she has been unavoidable since 2022 as a chart follower. I get the comments that the general public may not feel it quite so much though. Cruel Summer sticking around the top 10 for so long hasn’t helped, though I can’t blame Taylor for that.

Posted by: BellyClarkson 8th February 2024, 04:35 PM

In terms of U.K. songs most of the general public know in order I’d say:
Shake It Off, Anti Hero, Blank Space, Love Story, Cruel Sunmer

Cruel Summer still needs more time but I think has just entered the category that it’ll be one of her known renowned songs.

Posted by: Envoirment 8th February 2024, 05:50 PM

I would add "I Knew You Were Trouble" to the list. As well as being a big hit, it cemented itself with a goat meme that I still see pop up every now and again.



If I remember correctly it went viral on vine and was quite big for a while.

"Cruel Summer" will cement itself this summer in her stadium dates when everyone will be singing it!

Posted by: Mangø 8th February 2024, 06:00 PM

That goat meme will never stop being amazing

Posted by: kimberley88 8th February 2024, 06:11 PM

Yes for number one. I reckon around 50k Mark as album sales have been low for a while now. Third question I don't feel strongly about it.

Posted by: -Jay- 8th February 2024, 07:04 PM

Taylor’s last 3 releases in first week:

Midnights
204,501 Overall
75,667 CDs
61,948 vinyl
57,964 streaming
7,087 downloads
1,835 cassettes

1989 TV
184,965 Overall
75,672 CDs
61,791 vinyl
42,150 streaming
3,892 downloads
1,460 cassettes

Speak Now TV
67,112 Overall
23,578 streaming
22,777 vinyl
16,783 CDs
2,963 downloads
1,012 cassettes

I hadn’t noticed until now that Midnights and 1989 TV vinyl & CDs sold so similarly!

Posted by: Sean. 8th February 2024, 08:50 PM

I really hope this is in the same vein of Evermore and Folklore, 2 of my favourite albums of all time! She cannot do any wrong, literally a superstar! Listening to her back catalogue all the time, it’s outstanding! Hope they release more versions.

Posted by: Sean. 8th February 2024, 08:52 PM

50k 😂😂😂

Posted by: Mangø 8th February 2024, 10:38 PM

From what I've heard, it's synth-pop so I think it will sound more like Midnights than Evermore or Folklore. Although the title definitely gives folky vibes so who knows!

Posted by: Brer 9th February 2024, 12:25 AM

Most of the song titles definitely don't look like 'folklore'/'evermore' type songs as well.

Posted by: Bjork 9th February 2024, 09:54 AM

It's gonna be midnights part 2

Posted by: nikos 9th February 2024, 10:09 AM

Perrsonally i dont care how many albums she is realsing and how often. The picture is set: another mediocre album sounding the same that will sell like crazy and thats all. I believe though that she is very smart ,releasing as many as she can, milking the cow to the maximum, while she is on a roll. So who cares...

Posted by: -Jay- 14th April 2024, 06:10 AM

Last few days to get predicting!

Apparently Taylor’s already sold 2m+ preorders in the US, which is quite insane. So it makes me wonder if this will in fact outdo Midnights here as well.

Posted by: Bjork 14th April 2024, 06:37 AM

been saying this for. while, think she's gonna do crazy numbers and beat Midnights

this time there are 4 vinyl variants and each has a different cover + an exclusive extra track, so I reckon many fans will buy the 4 of them... I did it myself, finally cave in and bought the 4 of them

but the main reason is the Eras tour, which has placed it at a higher level of popularity than a couple years ago

Posted by: Juranamo 14th April 2024, 08:59 AM

Didn't Midnights have about 50,000 vinyl variants though? 😂

Posted by: Supercell 14th April 2024, 09:05 AM

I can’t remember what I voted for now but I think it’ll best Midnights first week sales. Her US figures will be insane id already thought she’d clear 2 million there in the first week but if it’s there with the preorders then she might challenge Adele’s record.

Posted by: Scene 14th April 2024, 09:18 AM

Yes to #1
50,000 to 99,999 - maybe 85,000?
Don't feel strongly either way

Posted by: Mack. 14th April 2024, 12:26 PM

I got an prediction someone will say that she is 'flopping' on the Streaming thread or Friday Chart Prediction.

Posted by: Starlight 13 14th April 2024, 01:26 PM

It had 4, then the Target (US)/HMV (UK) exclusive that was available in store only on release week, so 5.. pretty standard (in fact, many big artists have released many more variants of recent albums lol)

Posted by: elincomprendido 14th April 2024, 05:28 PM

I really can’t comprehend how anyone could seriously predict this to do less than 1989 TV

Posted by: 777666jason 14th April 2024, 06:37 PM

It's not exactly like 1989TV did 10k, it did 190k no other album came close to that last year

Posted by: BellyClarkson 15th April 2024, 06:02 PM

The fact there are genuinely 10 people who think this wont debut at #1 is shocking to me, even (18) people who think this will sell less than 100k is mind blowing to me. Think just common sense alone should make those two obvious, but guess this is a true reflection of society and intelligence

Posted by: John-James 15th April 2024, 06:03 PM

^ I don’t think those are genuine responses

Posted by: BellyClarkson 15th April 2024, 06:05 PM

My prediction anyway is over 200K.

But feel like my guess is anything between 175-300K, I wouldn’t be surprised if this pulls huge sales. Tempted to guess 240K as a mid figure/definite guess.

I do think this will be her peak for her highest sales in the first week though. I think the fact the Era’s tour is coming up as well as such a successful Midnights and Cruel summer run will make this her biggest yet on initial sales.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 15th April 2024, 06:10 PM

An flop and an hit sirens and claxons at the ready!!

Posted by: Liam sota 16th April 2024, 09:39 AM

I’m sure it will hit huge heights still but I’m surprised by the lack of hype

Posted by: Bjork 16th April 2024, 09:55 AM

my bet is she's gonna do 300K if it's true that she's already got 2 million of pre-orders in the US,
the UK will follow similarly I guess

Posted by: nikos 16th April 2024, 10:03 AM

It will sell a lot and will go to no1 but who cares, its going to be one of the same...So its very clever from her side to milk the cow as much as she can, while she can.

Posted by: Liam sota 16th April 2024, 10:05 AM

Sounds a lil too much but ya never know

Posted by: Bjork 16th April 2024, 10:18 AM

we care , that's a chart forum and this a prediction thread lol

you clearly don't care about predicting and only here as a Taylor-hater to make a childish post saying an album you've never heard is bad, grow up and then come back and post

Posted by: -Jay- 19th April 2024, 08:49 AM

In case it escaped anyone’s attention (🤪) it’s release day! Last opportunity to predict.

Half wondering whether I should open a new thread for a couple of days to give some 200k - 300k voting options!

Posted by: JulianT 19th April 2024, 08:55 AM

We now know that it will need just over 150k to debut at #1 on the YTD albums chart. Of course it could well become the biggest album of the year even if it doesn’t debut at #1.

Posted by: Dante77 19th April 2024, 09:00 AM

Amongst the usual fawning, it's getting some stinkingly Mixed to BAD reviews:

From NME: Arriving at the peak of her imperial phase, Swift’s 11th studio album is surprisingly flat and, at times, cringeworthy. A rare mistep.

The Standard: Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department album review: underwhelming and clunky

So whilst I think it'll do big numbers initially, the backlash has truly begun, and the wheels may just start falling off this pop juggernaut. Being vicious about numerous exes may just have run it's course. We'll see. I think it'll do 110, 000 in the UK first week then drop.

Posted by: Jordanlee 19th April 2024, 09:13 AM

Hoping the full 31 track edition gets a CD release at some point.

I think we might get a Midnights esque opening possibly for week one. I’m now gonna say this could well be her biggest UK opening yet. Plus the longevity as per all her albums will be insane can see it returning back to number one when she has her shows here and I’d be surprised if anything challenged it for the year end number one.

Intrigued / excited to see the numbers on Monday and the streaming figure numbers tomorrow. Likely would’ve been huge anyways but now there’s 15 more tracks.

Posted by: omrimayo 19th April 2024, 09:30 AM

Wow those are lies... ES gave Midnights the same 2/5

All the others are praising it and TheTimes gave it 5 unlike 4 to Midnights, same as TheBestOfLine gave it 8 while Midnights a 7.
The Guardian gave it 8, The Independent gave is 5. Rolling Stones a 5. LOL that you brought the worst 2 and said all those lies in here

It's at 90 (!!) with 8 reviews on MC,
https://www.metacritic.com/music/the-tortured-poets-department/taylor-swift

Posted by: Jessie Where 19th April 2024, 09:36 AM

Can't help but think all of this may be wishful thinking on your part But I guess we'll see...

Posted by: omrimayo 19th April 2024, 09:40 AM

Yeah, 90 on MC, he for sure won!

Posted by: Supercell 19th April 2024, 09:43 AM

I think given the double album and if this is being released physically too then perhaps 300k is not out the question this week and I still think she’ll get the no1 single and it might be physicals get it there (if streaming doesn’t). The US I honestly think 3 million is quite likely now, she’s going to be gunning for that record I’d have thought given the insane pre-orders.

Posted by: omrimayo 19th April 2024, 09:48 AM

Sadly no physical edition of that double album, it there was... the numbers were something else, especially in the US.

Posted by: Sour Candy 19th April 2024, 09:49 AM

I don't think this being a double album has much effect in the UK. In the US it's of course different because all individual track streams count.

Posted by: Dexton 19th April 2024, 09:49 AM

How do streams count towards albums vs individual songs?

Posted by: Supercell 19th April 2024, 10:51 AM

Ah I see, although I would like to think she probably will do a physical release at some point if it’s not in the week. Either way it’s going to have phenomenal sales and personally I’m more interested in her US figures as I think they will just be utterly insane (not that it won’t be very impressive UK wise).

Posted by: Liam sota 19th April 2024, 11:16 AM

Everybody at the top has haters it’s normal, I don’t think it’s even close to being at a stage where the negative outweighs the positive

Posted by: Dirrty 19th April 2024, 12:00 PM

She won’t face any backlash, but those reviews are right for me. Surprised a critic even dared to say it. A rather bland album and 31 songs of it. No variety at all.

Posted by: Liam sota 19th April 2024, 12:09 PM

I was more referring to ‘run its course’ line. The album itself yeah it’s good to see more than just fawning reviews. Often they pick a Taylor fan to review the album and of course it’s a biased puff piece for supposedly credible outlet. I’ve tried to gage opinions and it’s mixed but 70-80% positive

Posted by: No Sleeep 19th April 2024, 12:22 PM

Not giving a 5 star review doesn’t make someone a hater.

Posted by: Long Dong Silver 19th April 2024, 12:59 PM

T
This and it's been thr same since the turgid Evermore and Folklore, which felt like astroturf pop versions of indie albums.

Posted by: Starlight 13 19th April 2024, 01:13 PM

Fair enough if you dislike her/the album (I'm a long term stan and admittedly its not my favourite) but please