Printable version of thread

Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th April 2019, 05:52 PM

Given that it looks almost certain now that the United Kingdom is going to be taking part in the European Parliamentary elections on May 23rd, I thought that now is the time to open up a thread for the upcoming EU elections. This thread should be for discussion of the upcoming elections, with Brexit-based discussion remaining in the Brexit thread, although I'm sure there's going to be some overlap.

I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of members of Buzzjack who are outside the UK but within the EU on what the voting & atmosphere is like for the elections in your country, we've got some pan-European members, and I would very much would value your contributions.

Posted by: Iz~ 9th April 2019, 04:06 AM

Good point. I've started the process of setting up a proxy vote.

If these elections do take place in the UK they will almost certainly be fought along Brexit lines and will likely have the highest turnout for an EU election. They're also PR which means no tactical voting!

So that means, in my opinion, there's very little reason to vote for a party not cemented on its Brexit strategy (like Labour). Assuming that these take place under the conditions of an extension, if you would like to ultimately Remain, you should vote Liberal Democrats or Green in England, and then Plaid or SNP in their respective areas. Not sure about NI.

Of course, one should also consider what the MEPs actually do, and we definitely should not reward those who take huge salaries and end up doing very little, like UKIP's MEPs. So if you must base your vote on Leave, vote Conservative I guess. Then, after you've evaluated whether the MEPs in your area are suitable people for the job, it depends which big political grouping you want to see take charge, although I'm sure it will very likely end up with EPP as the largest, which the UK can't do anything about, cheers Cameron.

I do love me some good electoral maths so I'm sure I'll end up following this closely even if the UK isn't taking part.

Posted by: vidcapper 9th April 2019, 05:21 AM

The only think that feels certain is a high vote for UKIP from pissed-off Leavers.

Posted by: Iz~ 9th April 2019, 06:00 AM

Not necessarily. If any Leavers have been paying attention to what MEPs do, they'll know how ineffectual the UKIP ones are at engaging with the European Parliament. UKIP have really lost their way in credibility.

There's also Farage's new party, the Brexit Party, how well that does I suspect will depend on his charisma and how much the media makes them a viable option, but it does provide an alternative to those disillusioned by UKIP. And then Conservatives will also be courting Leave votes very heavily.

For which party gains the highest number of votes/MEPs I'd actually say it SEEMS like anyone's game.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 9th April 2019, 08:51 PM

The big story I imagine that will come out of these EU elections will be the much expected populist shift, with parties across Europe that had little or no representation in the prior parliament making significant gains, including Sweden Democrats, Afd in Germany, Lega in Italy, National Rally (and possibly En Marche!) in France, the Forum for Democracy in Netherlands (a party that didn't even exist 2 years ago, but won the 2019 provincial elections, taking the populist torch from Geert van Legohair's party), and Vox and Podemos in Spain, as well as populist movements in other, smaller countries. Interestingly, the only country that don't seem to have a populist party with a serious chance of winning seats is in the Republic of Ireland (although Peter Casey's result in the Irish Presidential election shows that even there, there is a market for populism).

As for the UK, it will be anyone's guess as to which party gains the most seats. Leavers could be drawn back to Ukip, which as I've mentioned before, has become a much more frightening beast since Batten took over. Nigel Farage's new party could get a few seats, and Remainers should be quietly hoping that he takes a bite out of Ukip's cherry (it is one of the strangest paradoxes in politics that the more popular Nigel Farage becomes, the greater the support for the EU). The European elections usually gives the chances of smaller parties their first opportunity to break through politically due to its PR system, as seen back in 2009 when the BNP won two seats, earning it a chair on that infamous edition of Question Time. This year (provided EU elections do happen in the EU), I can't see any parties having the same breakthrough, with the exception of the Brexit Party, and Change UK (although it will be interesting to see who they put up as election candidates - I wonder if any of their MPs will put their money where their mouth is in terms of their support of the EU by putting themselves forward for the lists at this election, and take their seats in the European Parliament if they win).

Overall, with the amount of fragmentation, I think that it will be Labour that ends up with the most seats, albeit there won't be much in it between them and some of the other parties.

In NI, it'll be the same 3 representatives - DUP, Sinn Fein & UUP.

Posted by: Suedehead2 9th April 2019, 09:20 PM

There tend to be a presumption against MPs also serving as MEPs (although there is no legal block), so I doubt any of the Chuka MPs will stand.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 9th April 2019, 09:22 PM

My thinking is that in such a scenario, they would then resign their seat in the HoC in order to go to Brussels, therefore demonstrating their loyalty to the EU in the strongest possible terms.

Posted by: vidcapper 10th April 2019, 05:21 AM

IMO it'll be like any election other than a GE : low turnout, with voters merely treating it as an opinion poll, in which case I predict UKIP will do very well again.

Posted by: Steve201 10th April 2019, 10:18 PM

I wonder if the generally public will be confused by the changes in UKIP over the past 5 years and how Farage has changed to the Brexit Party?

Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th April 2019, 10:29 PM

Short answer - yes, and it is something that troubles me greatly. It will take some incredibly intelligent persuasion skills by someone with a national platform to get it through to the general public that a) Ukip of 2019 are not the same as the Ukip of 2014, and b) to not vote for them in spite of what they are now (because unfortunately, even if people are aware of the depths that Ukip have sunk under Batten, many will still vote for them regardless).

Unfortunately, I do not think there is a persuader with the requisite skills that can navigate those choppy waters.

Posted by: Steve201 10th April 2019, 10:43 PM

It'll happen because people will inevitably think Farage is still the leader and they associate the party as the Brexit party. Or both parties could stop the other doing well.

Seen a poll today for the EU elections -

Labour 37%
Conservative 23%
Brexit Party 11%
Liberals 7%
Change UK 4%
UKIP 7%

Posted by: Rooney 10th April 2019, 11:06 PM

These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want.

Posted by: vidcapper 11th April 2019, 05:54 AM

Most won't be - Leavers will still pick an anti-EU party to vote for, they won't much care which.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 11th April 2019, 07:22 AM

I won't be voting Labour after the shambles stances Corbyn has taken, the good news is PR votes count so everyone can actually vote FOR a party rather than AGAINST one to stop them winning.

Posted by: vidcapper 11th April 2019, 02:06 PM

Although 'winning' isn't really a thing where the Euro's are concerned, because you gain nothing by finishing first.

Posted by: Common Sense 11th April 2019, 05:00 PM

I certainly won't be voting as a protest against the will of the people not being carried out. I may stand outside our polling station with a BREXIT placard.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 11th April 2019, 05:20 PM

I daresay many Remainers will thank you for your sacrifice. It will mean that their vote will count for more than it would if you were to vote yourself.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 11th April 2019, 05:23 PM

I would disagree - even you mean that winning the most seats in the UK won't give a party in its own right a massive say in the EU Parliament on a Europe-wide basis, winning the most seats in the European Parliament elections in the UK would be a massive boost for the party that comes out 1st, both in PR terms and for supporters/activists in said party. Let's not forget that Ukip topping the polls in 2014 led to the promise of a referendum on the EU's membership, the effects of which we are still seeing.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 13th April 2019, 10:32 AM

I second this. Seen nothing from them that suggests they either have a plan or if they did have a plan that it would be substantially different from the Tories.


I will be proxy voting for the SNP. Hoping they might come out with the third seat this time

Posted by: Rooney 13th April 2019, 12:42 PM

They still want Brexit, they just haven't told us what type of Brexit they want yet. I mean it took them two years to come up with a Custom's Union and they are will they/won't they with supporting a second referendum. I just think it's really important to not use the vote to default to Labour unless they are clear about what they want.

Personally I suspect there will be much more interest in these elections this time around. We only got a referendum in the first place because of UKIP, I think sending a strong message to
the government the better.

Oh and if anyone wants a laugh about the Brexit Party the below links will put a smile on your face, especially the first one.

http://thebrexitparty.eu/
https://thebrexitparty.com/

Posted by: Botchia 13th April 2019, 02:56 PM

We could end up with some very messy results based on the opinion polls but I guess campaigning hasn't started yet!

Posted by: Iz~ 14th April 2019, 01:04 PM

UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they?

If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP.

Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP.

So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost.

Posted by: vidcapper 14th April 2019, 01:45 PM

Given the short notice, the quality of candidates all round is likely to be low.

Posted by: TheSnake 14th April 2019, 02:30 PM

I am sure the Brexit Party will do better than UKIP in the European election because UKIP is becoming a bit of a tainted brand, and on the other side of the Brexit spectrum, Change UK will do better than the Lib Dems (although that will be closer between the two).

Meanwhile almost certainly the Conservatives will have a disastrous performance and probably Labour will make some slight gains, but not do as well as they should be doing under the circumstances.

Posted by: Iz~ 14th April 2019, 02:30 PM

Nah. The provisional Lib Dem list for the same area contains two former MPs, school governors, environmental scientists, people with experience in international organisations. I was impressed. People that looked like the sort of people we would send to be MEPs for the full allotted time, not those who've gotten internet famous from being intentionally abrasive and with skeletons spilling out of their closets. UKIP is scraping.

Posted by: TheSnake 14th April 2019, 02:35 PM

You think the Lib Dems will do better than Change UK then, even though Change UK have the benefit of being shiny and new?

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th April 2019, 02:46 PM

Shiny & new ≠ Good, especially when politics is involved.

Posted by: Iz~ 14th April 2019, 02:49 PM

Almost certainly I'd say, though I am a tad biased. LDs already have an infrastructure and an identity, and they've been the biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum. For those who it's an issue, they also oppose federalism in Europe, and are a bit less likely to be soulless neoliberals. CUK could gain centrist ground but I'm not seeing a world where they manage to place themselves as THE remain party.

Being the most established pro-Remain party I think will put them at least 4th overall if not better. Where they've often been held back in elections is their fragmented spread of voters that works against them with FPTP. They were 5th last time but that was at their lowest ebb of popularity, I think they'll get some more this time.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th April 2019, 02:51 PM

I guess we should be glad that Paul Joseph Watson of InfoWars, who joined at the same time, isn't on the list (as of yet), so small mercies & all that. But yes, not a good look

I imagine these internet "personalities" will be putting their emphasis on the recent EU vote over copyright reform in relation to Article 13, aka the "Meme Ban" bill. It is something that many people have issues with, especially given the shenanigans that happened to get it through, but these are definitely not the people you want flying the flag on the issue.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 14th April 2019, 03:34 PM

Biggest party by Members or MPs? Because they're second on both counts to the SNP and the SNP don't even stand outside of Scotland.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th April 2019, 03:53 PM

Let's just settle for the description "UK-wide party". Besides, he said "most established", not "biggest".

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 14th April 2019, 04:11 PM

"biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum"

Hence the Q.

Posted by: Iz~ 14th April 2019, 05:23 PM

I said both but I was simply thinking UK-wide (or, fine, just England!) as the SNP are not an option for most of the electorate.

Posted by: Rooney 14th April 2019, 06:08 PM

UKIP will do nothing in the elections, they're basically a re-branded BNP now. Sure they'll pick up some of the votes, but they're basically a Fascist party now.

If Farage hadn't founded the Brexit party then I could see things being different. Plus the Brexit party gives Farage (who was UKIP) a platform to blame everyone for not seeing through Brexit rah, rah, rah. It's just a pure populist party which is dangerous, as populist parties are but I can see why a Brexiteer would vote for them. If any Brexiteer votes for the UKIP party, well, they need their head knocking on!

Posted by: vidcapper 15th April 2019, 05:29 AM

That depends -

1. They might not realise that UKIP have changed.

2. They might be so pissed off at the fiasco over BRexit, that they'll vote for them despite the change.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 16th April 2019, 12:05 PM

Sounds like you're saying UKIP voters are too stupid to notice the changes or so extreme that they'll vote for them in spite of the move to the nutty far-right. That doesn;t sound very complimentary either way

Posted by: vidcapper 17th April 2019, 05:28 AM

That was not my intention.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 20th April 2019, 09:43 AM

well here's a depressingly potentially accurate summary of what's likely to happen....

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/19/remainers-defeat-european-elections-eu-vote

Posted by: Brett-Butler 20th April 2019, 10:00 AM

Lord Buckethead, the satirical character who stood against Theresa May in the 2017 General Election (and previously stood against Margaret Thatcher & John Major in 1987 & 1992 respectively) is hoping to stand in the EU elections against Nigel Farage. Although he has never polled greater than 1%, and due to the party list system stands no chance of getting in even if his support increased 10-fold, in this topsy-turvy political world a slight part of me can't rule him out.

Posted by: Iz~ 20th April 2019, 10:06 AM

...which is why it's more important than ever for Remain forces to start coming together. The Lib Dems need to get back into the media, Change UK need to sort out how they're batting.

Consider the narrative that comes from the result of the elections first. Which is possibly more important than the actual result. The Brexit party comes top and the conversation is how there is still desire on that side. If it's a good lead. However if they come very close behind Labour, with Lib Dem/Green/ChangeUK all polling somewhat decently, while UKIP courting only the vote from insane internet incels and the Tories floundering, then I don't know that it'd be as easy to spin the result. In fact, one would then be encouraged to count Leave MEPs/Remain MEPS and the latter would look pretty good.

It being proportional is going to help this a lot. If you understand the system, you'll see there are no wasted votes. And then to counter my other point, you have more chance of blocking a UKIP or 2nd Brexit MEP in your region by voting someone like the Greens (though try and check local polling to be sure). This is the one election where a cause being divided is actually pretty strong. As long as each party can poll ENOUGH to get over the line (i.e. at least half of the highest vote total), we could end up with an election where the average constituency sends one of each of the seven major parties. Of course, many have less.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th April 2019, 11:23 AM

I'm sure most Lib Dems would agree that the [party need to get back in the media. However, they cannot force papers to publish their press releases and they can't force broadcasters to report what the party is saying (although that changes a little in an election period). Farage, on the other hand, seems to have his every utterance reported uncritically, even when he uses inflammatory language about "putting the fear of God" into politicians at a time when many of them are receiving death threats.

Labour's ambiguity means that both sides will try and insist that the party's vote should be added to their side. Their current MEPs are overwhelmingly Remainers and they will be at the top of the party list. Therefore, most of those standing again will be re-elected. That should mean that the majority of UK MEPs will be Remainers.

The decision of the ChUKas to contest the elections may prove to be a mistake. At least the Greens can claim that they are a distinct party with their own policies and use that to justify standing against the Lib Dems. As they have almost no policies, the ChUKas can't claim that. I suspect there will be several areas where the Lib Dems and ChUKas both win no seats but where they would have won one if all the votes had gone to one of the parties.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th April 2019, 11:34 AM

What concerns me is that the Leave vote has a clear channel to be funnelled towards: the newly created Farage.. er, I mean, BREXIT party.

The Remain camp OTOH is likely to be split amongst the more progressive smaller parties, with ChUK helping to split that vote further rather than unite it. Ultimately they may end up undoing all of the momentum from the People's Vote movement and take the (currently unlikely) prospect of a 2nd referendum beyond all hope.

Posted by: vidcapper 20th April 2019, 01:53 PM

We can only hope...

Posted by: Brett-Butler 20th April 2019, 02:05 PM

Some good news for Remainers is that The SDP, which currently has one MEP, has decided not to put forward any candidates for the European Elections. I think it's madness that despite their pro-Brexit stance that they would look a gift horse in the mouth and turn down an opportunity to re-build their profile on a national level, but hey ho, that's their prerogative.

Posted by: Steve201 21st April 2019, 01:05 AM

Farage and his career reminds me of Oswald Mosley a bit albeit he was never in government!

Posted by: vidcapper 21st April 2019, 05:08 AM

Or maybe they're afraid of another MRLP style humiliation?

Posted by: Iz~ 21st April 2019, 10:48 AM

I reckon that the existence of Labour will detract from the argument that it is a proxy referendum as their votes can't be claimed for either side, that said, if you feel strongly either way about the issue, then it would be a mistake to vote Labour.

Unless CUK really get going in the next month with TV appearances, I can see them performing rather dismally. What reason do people have to vote for them that means they wouldn't already be considering voting LDs as a Remain vote? I am not seeing positive messages of support from anywhere. And I certainly see the possibility you mention happening, this tweet from FT (found by simply searching 'Change UK', of course) shows how the potential results (from poll averages) would look with them divided and them united.



I'm actually itching to go campaign right now, and wishing I could. One disadvantage of trying to leave it all behind. I'll have to settle for social media making sure people are registered.

Posted by: Suedehead2 22nd April 2019, 10:21 AM

One of the UKIP candidates is called Dick Braine. Just thought I'd mention it.

Posted by: Iz~ 22nd April 2019, 10:40 AM

Pah, Mebyon Kernow have been playing the innuendo game for 22 years.

not that ole dick cole or the entire party is even likely standing

Posted by: Brett-Butler 23rd April 2019, 11:17 AM

After Jacob Rees-Mogg’s sister was announced as a Brexit Party candidate, Change Uk have upped the ante by announcing Boris’ sister, the journalist Rachel Johnston, as their candidate (to the surprise of absolutely no one). They’ve also announced former Newsnight host Gavin Esner as a candidate.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 23rd April 2019, 03:06 PM

Hmmm let me see, someone who is the sister of a right wing Tory MP who is a barking mad liar and clearly in it for their own personal gain, but who sees the Tories as not right-wing enough, and the sister of a less-right-wing Tory MP who is barking mad and clearly in it for their own personal gain, but who sees the Tories as too right-wing and favours a public democratic vote on whatever botch deal that everyone hates but is eventually agreed upon.

Now what a dilemma, who on Earth shall I cast my vote for.....

The Lying Corrupt-we'll do-anything-to-get-our-way-even-subvert-democracy Farage Fan Club
The Lying Tory Split-for=decades Pink Elephants Fantasy Club
The staring-at-the-ground hoping no-one notices they=really=don't-agree-with-members Brexit-supporting shhh trying to not alienate two opposing sides of voters Labour Party
The Dead-as-a-dodo Nutkippers

or the referendum backing ChUK or the referendum-backing Libdems who will probably cancel each other out but we've no way of knowing which one is the lesser wasted vote.

Basically British Politics = nobody can agree on anything even when it's for the good of the country. I say let's all vote for Jon Snow (aka Aegon Targaryen)....

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th April 2019, 08:15 PM

Two new opinion polls out today in regards to the European Elections. Both put Brexit Party & Labour Party as the most popular, with the former's support coming at the expense of the Tories & Ukip.

Posted by: vidcapper 28th April 2019, 05:21 AM

I don't think I've ever seen an election with such wide variance between the polls!

Posted by: vidcapper 28th April 2019, 06:01 AM

Going off at a bit of a tangent - who has local elections in their area this week?

Alas, I do not.

Posted by: vidcapper 28th April 2019, 06:21 AM

Isn't hindsight wonderful...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/27/public-thinks-eu-referendum-was-a-bad-idea-says-poll

Posted by: Iz~ 28th April 2019, 07:42 AM

Probably fits better in the general Brexit thread but for myself I have always held that position. It should never have happened and I can point to it as being one of the main reasons I was so disheartened after the 2015 GE.

Yeah, completely unprecedented situation will do that.



There should be a thread for that one, as it’s important. None in my former residence area either so nothing I’ve been following though.

Posted by: Suedehead2 28th April 2019, 08:52 AM

I keep meaning to start a local election thread. I’ll try to do it this morning (unless a Mod gets there before me).

Posted by: Brett-Butler 30th April 2019, 10:16 PM

One candidate of note in the European Elections is Crispin Hunt, who is running for Change UK in the South West of England. This slightly excites me, as those members of Buzzjack who share a love of Britpop will immediately recognise him as the lead singer of Longpigs, who were responsible for one of my favourite songs of the era, "She Said". He has no hope of being elected, as he's the last person on ChUK's list in the region, and he is running for Change UK. But any excuse to post this wonderful song:

Posted by: Popchartfreak 1st May 2019, 06:59 AM

I'd vote for him on the basis that he's given me more pleasure than any other candidate on the ballot in the past. A bit like anyone voting Brexit Party without knowing a single policy of what they stand for bar one - but at least he can sing a tune

Posted by: Suedehead2 1st May 2019, 07:27 AM

She Said has s indeed a glorious song

Posted by: Brett-Butler 1st May 2019, 04:58 PM

Following on from this, as he is a candidate, does that mean in the run-up to the elections that radio stations can't play any songs by Longpigs, as it would count as preferential treatment of an electoral candidate, or would they have to name every other candidate running in that region every time they are played on the radio? If that's the case, then it would mean that 6music would have to find an extra hour of music to fill their playlists every week, given how much they love playing that band.

Posted by: vidcapper 8th May 2019, 05:14 AM

So who will you be voting for in the Euro elections?

It will be the Brexit Party for me - surprise, surprise.

Posted by: Iz~ 8th May 2019, 07:24 AM

There are great-looking SW candidates for the first picks of both Green and Lib Dems in the South West (and a lot of ‘celebrities’ in other parties, Anne Widdecombe, BoJo’s sister, Carl Of Swindon, feels really weird to have so many big names).

I’m going to be voting Lib Dems and hopefully they and the Greens can each get a place. They just missed out on getting one each last time, it’s possible.

that’s another thing, predictions for each constituency, go.

Posted by: vidcapper 8th May 2019, 08:46 AM

Given the enormous range of parties standing, I couldn't even hazard a guess.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 8th May 2019, 11:20 AM

Based on my friends and family who express an opinion farage fan club is going to slaughter.

I will bote libdem as always. There is no point voting any other way in dorset unless you love lying farage or lying tories.

Posted by: Harve 8th May 2019, 12:36 PM

Voting in England (West Midlands because my mum lives on the wrong side of the Derbyshire/Staffordshire border x) for the first time, otherwise it would've been the SNP.

I want to see regional polling before I sent off my vote. I'd like to vote for the Greens but if they don't stand much of a chance of winning a seat there then I'll go for the Lib Dems.

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th May 2019, 01:09 PM

I doubt there will be any regional polling. The best you can hope for is a regional breakdown of a national poll. However, the numbers in each region would be very low and, therefore, not entirely reliable. One such breakdown put the Lib Dems in first place in London. I would be surprised (although also delighted) if that happened.

Posted by: Iz~ 8th May 2019, 01:39 PM

Hard at the moment as we haven't got post-local election polls but as an example, for the South West, which has 6 MEPs elected.

Last time they elected 2 UKIP, 2 Conservative, 1 Labour and 1 Green, Cons and UKIP getting a second as half of their vote total was more than the Liberal Democrats got overall, and indeed more than either Greens or Labour. Now, I would expect most of those UKIP votes to be migrating to Brexit, and the Conservative votes... who knows? I doubt heavily either of those parties will get two MEPs again - which thankfully has the side-effect of keeping a certain despicable Youtuber out of power.

Anyway, I'll plug in the most recent poll from YouGov, the one with BP on 30%, into the turnout numbers from the South West (rounding up to 1.6 million, it was 1.54 in 2014 and 1.44 in 2009 so that's a fair increase, not even counting that this election will likely see higher turnout) and see how it goes.

Brexit Party 480k (240k when counting their second, 160k when counting their potential third)
Labour 336k (168k for their second)
Conservative 208k
Lib Dem 160k
Greens 144k
Change UK 144k
UKIP 64k

Which gives Brexit Party 2 MEPs, Labour 2, Conservative 1 and then one of either Brexit or Liberal Democrats. Now I didn't account for Labour likely getting a lot less than that, it's the South West after all, so this is less of an accurate prediction and more of a reminder of how d'Hondt works. And if there really is that much of a spoiler effect on the Remain parties going on then I'll be quite sad. But rationally, comparing to last time's, the UKIP voters should mostly transplant to Brexit, if the Conservatives do no real campaigning their high levels of votes last time should go somewhere between Brexit, Lib Dems and Change UK and Labour might be competing with Greens.

So I'm going to go with:
Brexit 3
Labour 1
Conservative 1
Lib Dem 1

as my SW prediction.

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th May 2019, 02:33 PM

The Farage Fanclub is a very odd sort of party. First, it has no members. It only has "supporters" who have to pay £25 for the privilege.

Those supporters don't really get much for their £25. They have no role in deciding policy - that is all done by The Fuhrer Farage. Given his reluctance to do any work, apart from self-promotion, I'm not expecting much policy to emerge at any time, let alone before May 23. They cannot vote to depose the leader. Only the Politburo can do that. And who appointed the Politburo? Farage of course.

Then there is the matter of funding. It has been reported that somebody has made a donation of a six-figure sum. However, under Electoral Commission rules, the source of that money doesn't have to be declared until June. Indeed, because of the timing of the "party" registering with the Electoral Commission, none of their donors needs to be identified before June. Of course if, as Farage claims, there is nothing at all iffy about the source, there is nothing to stop him disclosing it now.

Posted by: Iz~ 8th May 2019, 02:47 PM

Their donations were, from the start suspicious. Remember the '£750,000 in donations online, all in small sums of less than £500'? Conveniently, £500 is the amount one needs to disclose a donor's information, and sums under that are completely private. How convenient.

Great twitter thread on the subject:

Posted by: Iz~ 8th May 2019, 02:50 PM

I crunched the numbers for that Yougov poll countrywide by the way, using estimated turnout numbers to simulate these elections in a haphazard way. Unlike with what I did above, I used YouGov's regional stats to differentiate the regions.

All-in-all, it comes out to:

Brexit Party - 29
Labour - 16
Conservatives - 9
Lib Dems - 6
Greens - 5
Change UK - 2
SNP - 2
UKIP - 0

I mean, subject to change of course and somebody probably did something official with those numbers when the poll came out but at least it's visualised for me how each of the different regions is likely to go.

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th May 2019, 03:14 PM

I suspect the ChUKas will end up with none. A combination of last week's local election results and the fact that the social media battle seems to be between Lib Dems and Greens will probably see ChUK (or whatever they are called now) squeezed out.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th May 2019, 05:23 PM

My own predictions for Great Britain are

Labour to come out on top, with seat numbers in the mid 20s
Brexit Party to be close runners up, with their seat numbers comfortably in the 20s
Conservatives well behind, with seat numbers in the mid 10s.
Lib Dems, Greens & Change UK to have single digit seat numbers, in that order, then
SNP to win 3 seats in Scotland
Ukip somehow managing 2 seats.

As for Northern Ireland, the leaders of three of the firmly-remain parties have done what ChUK members didn't do and put their money where their mouth is and put themselves forward for the European elections, with the SDLP, Alliance & Green Party NI leaders all in contention (although in fairness, it's not a direct comparison as all three are MLAs rather than MPs, although Naomi Long was previously one). One interesting candidate is the Conservative candidate - they usually don't run many candidates here, and when they do they rarely get enough votes to win the deposit. Their candidate is Amdeep Singh Bhogal, who is a Sikh of Indian descent, which is not the sort of candidate that usually contests elections here in Northern Ireland.

My predictions for NI are for the 3 MEPs elected to be from Sinn Fein, DUP & Alliance, with the UUP losing their seat.

Posted by: vidcapper 10th May 2019, 06:47 AM

Descending into the ridiculous...

https://order-order.com/2019/05/09/mad-remainer-files-official-complaint-brexit-partys-logo-good/

Posted by: Iz~ 10th May 2019, 09:06 AM

It is indeed ridiculous. Nigel Farage has racked up his record 33rd appearance on Question Time after complaining about a lack of coverage (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nigel-farage-on-question-time-1-6040398/), then summarily on said show could not name a country that trades solely on WTO rules (https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/question-time-can-you-name-a-country-nigel-farage-silenced-by-furious-member-in-trade-deal-example-blunder/).

And then over here we have Guido f***ing Fawkes thinking he can dismiss a professor of clinical psychology (who might have the danger of actually knowing what he’s talking about on the issue of subliminal psychology) by using the loaded language of ‘spluttered’.

Posted by: Iz~ 10th May 2019, 09:12 AM

Not that the logo itself should be banned really even if it is yet another example of how manipulative and shady this whole party is, but, you know, how people still listen to what that man says in 2019 is baffling.

Posted by: vidcapper 10th May 2019, 01:34 PM

Or, the other parties are just jealous that they didn't think of it first...

Posted by: Iz~ 10th May 2019, 01:43 PM

Seems like they put all their thinking into the logo then, because they didn't think about how to draft either a manifesto or be a party one can join.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th May 2019, 05:24 PM

As I've said before, the Brexit Party's persuasion tactics have been second to none since they've started, and the quoted psychologist isn't the only one who's picked up on that. Nigel Farage has said that his aim is to win the election, and so far he has been bust ticking all the boxes to hit that target (although I still can't personally see them topping the poll). The fact the party doesn't have proper policies or a manifesto means nothing, it is not an impediment to them winning (if anything, it would be a hindrance).

Change UK on the other hand have been, and continue to be woeful, and any attack that they or any Remain alliance party can make on Farage, just won't stick. They are making the same mistakes they made in 2015 and 2016, and more or less making the exact same arguments against him as well - they didn't stick then, and they won't stick now. The definition of insanity etc. Remain parties should be going more for the emotional arguments rather than the rational arguments if they want to prosper in the election, especially in areas that had voted leave. Whether they are able to is another question.

Posted by: Suedehead2 10th May 2019, 05:44 PM

This is where the SDP showed far more political nous than ChUK. There was more to the deal with the Liberal Party than simply the fact that standing against each other made no electoral sense. It also meant that the SDP could benefit from the Liberals' superior campaigning skills. Most of the MPs = and many of the activists - had only ever worked in safe Labour seats. Their campaigning style - such as it was - reflected that. The Liberals, OTOH, had lots of experience in gaining seats from other parties. Without that experience, the SDP would soon have sunk without trace and the Liberals would probably have continued to make only modest gains in general elections. ChUK, by refusing any sort of co-operation, seem to be trying to set a new record for shooting themselves in the foot.

Posted by: Rooney 10th May 2019, 05:59 PM

Well this is it in a nutshell when a Brexiteer tells you we should trade on WTO trade terms. No-one does it cos they are shite.

Posted by: Suedehead2 10th May 2019, 06:10 PM

And, of course, those rules are written by unelected bureaucrats without even having to be endorsed by an elected parliament because the WTO doesn't have one. Furthermore, unlike the EU, being a democracy is not a requirement for membership.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th May 2019, 10:38 PM

Just watched Change UK's PEB from this evening. Goodness, it was woeful. Obviously they didn't take anyone with a background in making political spots when they jumped ship.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th May 2019, 10:42 PM

Also, have added a poll to this thread, so we can get a good grasp on what parties we're gravitating towards.

Posted by: Iz~ 11th May 2019, 04:01 AM

Oh I do know how effective it’s being, but one can only hope that continually pointing out how little substance exists behind the Farage blank cheque has some counter-effect.

Voted Lib Dem in the poll. Unfortunately a lot of what I’m seeing is infighting as the Remain parties once again devour themselves, this time over Gina Miller’s tactical voting website, largely because it says to vote the LDs wherever you are in England for a Remain vote. England does have some very good Green MEPs but there is a stronger Lib Dem base*.

*this whole issue is of course assuming that Remain is your only concern in this election. What the MEPs will stand for in the European Parliament is just as important.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 11th May 2019, 10:39 AM

Have i got news for you is pulled because it has heidi allen on as guest. Nigel farage meanwhile gets to promote his fan club for the 34th time on question time. If you cant invite other members of a socalled "political party" instead of the self promoting head of a personality based one issue cult then you shouldnt get pissy about a politician having a laugh. Imho of course. Plus farage was on the show for the last european elections so allen claims. If true hypocrisy much.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 11th May 2019, 10:53 AM

Meanwhile man of the blokey poverty stricken wannabe politician nigel "im buggering off when the shit hits the fan" farage has problems with his range rover and chauffeur.....

This is in the sun....

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9049369/nigel-farage-fled-driver-crashed-13-month-old-toddler/

Yes, The Sun!

Posted by: Suedehead2 11th May 2019, 12:02 PM

It goes beyond that. Just one week before the local elections there was a Tory MP on HIGNFY. That, apparently, was perfectly OK. The BBC / Hat Trick Production went ahead and recorded the programme on Thursday night knowing that there was an election due in just two weeks' time. They obviously went ahead in t he belief that there wouldn't be a problem. They spent Friday editing the programme and were all set to show it. Then, less than an hour before it was due to be shown, the show was pulled. The whole thing stinks.

Meanwhile, Farage is on the Andrew Marr show tomorrow along with a Labour and Tory guest. No doubt he will be given the usual soft ride. There will be no Lib Dem on the show. There wasn't one on the show last week either, despite the fact that it came just a few days after the party had performed spectacularly well in the local elections. I look forward to the whole of next week's show being given over to Vince Cable or Tom Brake (EU spokesman) just to restore balance

Posted by: vidcapper 11th May 2019, 01:25 PM

Don't hold your breath, though.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 11th May 2019, 02:00 PM

The feeble excuse is that leaders of political parties will be able to cause bias on light entertainment shows specialising in slagging off all politicians especially the guests, but non leaders wont. That nobody has heard of heidi allen by and large must mean that, say, boris johnson would have been fine and while she is going to boost the pro eu cause but johnson isnt. Simplistic. Thats the bbc who have issues of logic and clearly just opt for bias in the name of non bias. Pathetic.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 12th May 2019, 05:53 PM

I loved their tweet:



Stupid decision really, especially as they had a Conservative MP (Johnny Mercer) on the week of the Local Elections. He was totally DESTROYED (as they say on Twitter/YouTube) by Ian Hislop though.

Purdah means fuck all, especially for the Euros where turnout is notoriously low and nobody even knows (or cares) who their MEP is.

Posted by: Harve 13th May 2019, 07:54 AM

What would your ranked choice voting be in a truly proportional system be? (I quite like STV, preferably with large constituencies, which is used in Scottish council and non-Westminster NI elections)

I think it'd go SNP -> Green -> Lib Dems -> Labour -> ChangeUK -> Tories -> BREX -> UKIP for me.

Posted by: vidcapper 13th May 2019, 10:17 AM

IT would be Brexit > UKIP and that's all.

Posted by: Steve201 13th May 2019, 04:33 PM

Voted other - Sinn Fein most likely.

Likely Labour if I lived in the UK or the Brexit Party as a protest at the handling of Brexit by the MPs in parliament.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 13th May 2019, 06:31 PM

I know that Buzzjack is not a representative sample of the general public, but I'm quite surprised that no-one has voted for Labour in the poll so far. Has their dithering over their EU-position put a lot of people off? Less surprised, but still somewhat surprised, that no-one's plumped for the Tories either.

I know I'm not one to judge anybody else's political preferences...but really??

Posted by: Klaus 13th May 2019, 08:13 PM

Looking purely at a European Election basis, I'd go Lib Dems > Greens >>>>>>>> Change UK >>>>> Labour >>>> Conservative (last ditch attempt to block the remaining)

Posted by: Steve201 13th May 2019, 10:50 PM

Yes definitely, democracy should be upheld imo: swiftly followed by a border poll!!

Posted by: Suedehead2 13th May 2019, 10:56 PM

The only way of upholding democracy is to accept that the advisory referendum was won fraudulently and that, therefore, the result should be disregarded.

Posted by: Steve201 13th May 2019, 11:01 PM

The result was always going to be implemented the PM of the time said in official government literature that it would be.

Posted by: Suedehead2 13th May 2019, 11:11 PM

Parliament is sovereign. Parliament legislated for an advisory referendum. A statement from the PM cannot override that.

Posted by: vidcapper 14th May 2019, 04:51 AM

If you *like* civil unrest, yes...

Posted by: Steve201 14th May 2019, 06:30 AM

The obvious answer to that is that the people are sovereign.

Posted by: vidcapper 14th May 2019, 06:40 AM

Quite so, Parliament derives their power from The People.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 14th May 2019, 07:44 AM

errr, it's Remainers who should be pissed off at an illegally financed referendum and rioting. Threatening civil unrest as the end result of ignoring illegality and having actual democracy is not democracy.

Just as having a final people's say on any agreed Brexit, or Hard Brexit, is not ignori.ng democracy. Tried to tell 2 Brexit friends this on holiday, just try saying "You don;t know why everyone voted Brexit" or "You can;t read the kinds of 17.4million people" or "Nigel Farage lied during the campaign when he said he wanted the Norway option" and you get abuse:

"Shut up! Lallalalalalalalal, not listening. Don;t care what you say. Don;t care wghat you think. Don;t care. Lalalalalalal"

So, Brexit fans have reached the stage where they can;t even be f***ed trying to argue a case at all, because they actually really don;t give a f*** what happens, they are so blinkered and obsessed and now want just any old piece of shit even if it ruins the country.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th May 2019, 08:56 AM

In a parliamentary democracy, parliament is sovereign.

Posted by: vidcapper 14th May 2019, 10:06 AM

Remind me - from whom does Parliament derive their power?

Posted by: vidcapper 14th May 2019, 10:09 AM

I was not threatening it, merely warning of the possible consequences, based on what has happened in other countries who have tried ignoring the result of a democratic vote...

Posted by: Doctor Blind 14th May 2019, 11:05 AM

I think inviting it and/or scaremongering more than warning though, no?

Also, it is not the first time the result of a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Scottish_devolution_referendum was ignored in THIS country.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 14th May 2019, 11:33 AM

countries which run fixed non-democratic votes are not by and large "democracies" in any real sense. They are usually dictatorships aided and abetted by sections of the population that happen to like said non-democratic BS.

We can sort all the arguing and accusations and lies and promises and bullying out with one simple solution. Ask people what they want, and make sure they have the facts, and there is no interference from rich foreign billionaires and hostile countries shit-stirring. Brexit will either go ahead quickly, as agreed, go ahead with a Hard Brexit, or not go ahead at all. Decision sorted BY THE PEOPLE.

THAT is called democracy when everyone finds they have a system that can't come to a clear agreed solution and spends eternity arguing. Brexiters Trying to Project Fear an argument is the biggest laughable hypocritical desperate, when they have spent years arguing facts and logical prohectyions of what will happen as Project Fear, and then when they turn out to be true resort to scaremongering rather than accept the ballot box as a solution. Total Project Fear.

The technique currently being used by some: "I want my way and I'm going to hold my breath and scream and bully until I get my way and I dont want democracy sorting it out because I know what 17.4 million think (even the 2 million dead ones and those who weren;t old enough to vote) because I have telepathy" Especially by those that have changed their minds since the referendum about the Norway/Canada/Fantasy Football league Options that all said was a piece of piss and certain to have been sorted inside 12 months, and now want a No-Deal Brexit which most people know will be hugely damaging when they all lied it would be marvellous. Basically everyone in the illegally-funded, data-stolen Cambridge Anal-Lickita still being FBI investigated and especially Nigel (I heart Assange, Le Pen, Hitler Youth songs, Trump & Putin) Farage, still a "person of interest" for anti-democratic practices.

Just a reminder that everytime you try and call it undemocratic, I'm going to list why it's Remainers who should be rioting in the streets indignant at having their democratic rights ignored. At length.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th May 2019, 01:14 PM

The sovereign. Clearly you also need reminding that MPs are representatives, not delegates. They are required to vote for what they believe to be in the best interests of the country.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th May 2019, 01:15 PM

What, like the Swiss referendum that was annulled recently? Perhaps the reports of riots have been suppressed.

Posted by: vidcapper 14th May 2019, 01:23 PM

And if necessary, suffer the consequences of defying the electorate, incidentally STV would make it far easier to punish MP's for such transgressions.

Posted by: vidcapper 14th May 2019, 01:24 PM

What was that referendum about?

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th May 2019, 03:09 PM

Tax.

The Swiss government also ignored a referendum on freedom of movement because they ruled that staying in the single market was more important. Again, no riots.

Posted by: vidcapper 15th May 2019, 04:49 AM

Why is it that countries can't be in the single market without freedom of movement...

Ah right, just because the EU says so.

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th May 2019, 07:23 AM

It’s a fundamental part of a single market. It really is that simple

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 15th May 2019, 08:47 AM

Because you can’t have a true single market that allows for the free movement of goods, services and capital without also allowing for the free movement of labour. Freedom of movement allows people to take jobs anywhere in Europe and contribute to building a strong economy for the continent. Like the other 3 freedoms the freedom of movement comes with a truck load of legislation that allows us to exercise control over migration from other EU states. The UKs failure to implement these controls is not a failure of the EU

Don’t confuse free movement of EU nationals with the immigration rights of non-EU nationals. Non-EU nationals do not have the right to free movement and must have a visa from the country they live/work in and that visa is the limited to that country alone. If they want a holiday to another EU country they need a visa, even if that country is a Schengen state.

Posted by: vidcapper 15th May 2019, 09:12 AM

It's a 'fundamental part' only because the EU says it is - nothing more.

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th May 2019, 09:18 AM

No, EU member states agreed it. "The EU" cannot decree anything without the agreement pf member states and the European parliament.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 15th May 2019, 09:21 AM

No, it's fundamental because each of the states that constitute the EU have different relative advantages over others in labour, capital, goods and services - it provides a more level playing field.

Posted by: Steve201 15th May 2019, 05:22 PM

Does anyone know when the votes of the elections next Thursday are counted? We don't hAve an all Nighter to look forward to do we?

Posted by: Brett-Butler 15th May 2019, 05:26 PM

Apparently, they will be announced on https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/european-elections-explained-everything-you-16239812, so an all nighter, but at the end of the weekend.

Posted by: Steve201 15th May 2019, 05:36 PM

Disappointing, I'm off the Friday although the Mondays a bank holiday so will be able to watch it anyway!

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th May 2019, 06:06 PM

In the past, the verification process (checking that the number of ballot papers in each box matches the number issued) has taken place on the Thursday night with the count itself on Sunday. This year (here at least), the verification process is on Sunday morning. I have been led to believe that the count will start in the afternoon which may mean a declaration very soon after the polls have closed in the countries sensible enough to vote on Sunday.

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th May 2019, 09:41 PM

And, just to add to the mix, the BBC are due to show the first episode of o five=part series about Thatcher on Monday night. According to my EPG her inner circle will be revealing how she rose to be PM. That makes it sound like a series of one-hour Tory PPBs, but apparently that's OK a few days before an election.

Posted by: Steve201 15th May 2019, 10:09 PM

Doesn't sound fair - is it from one of her auto/biographies? I've read a few and they're quite good. But yeh propaganda just before a vote. Might help to highlight how her system has caused the flaws we are living with nowadays though!

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th May 2019, 07:20 AM

If so, I suspect that won’t be until later episodes - after the election.

Posted by: Iz~ 22nd May 2019, 03:05 PM

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/8-top-10-brexit-party-16179913

The vast majority of Brexit Party supporting accounts on social media are, shock horror, bots.

Meanwhile,
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48351281

large numbers of UK expats in the EU worried their votes won't count because of postal voting incompetencies.

Happy voting day tomorrow everyone, make sure you go and vote and make the democratically elected EU something you participated in.

Posted by: LexC 22nd May 2019, 06:39 PM

Andrea Leadsom has resigned from the cabinet.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 22nd May 2019, 06:48 PM

Interestingly, she signed the letter in a pen colour that matches the colour of the Brexit Party. Not sure whether it's purposeful, or I'm reading more into it than I should, in my usual way.

Posted by: Suedehead2 22nd May 2019, 07:09 PM

And so Theresa May extends her lead as the PM to suffer the most Cabinet resignations per month in office.

Gavin WIlliamson was sacked the day before the local elections. Loathsome has resigned the day before the European elections. Who will go the day before the Peterborough byelection?

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 22nd May 2019, 07:12 PM

Hopefully the prime minister

Posted by: Rooney 22nd May 2019, 07:24 PM

May needs to go of course, she's finished now. Problem is the person we get in is likely to be far worse and willing to cave to the far-right of the Party.

For anyone in Yorkshire - looks like Lib Dems are on course for 1 seat. Not sure they have enough for 2, might be worth going for the Green Party.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 22nd May 2019, 07:44 PM

I'm voting Green tomorrow as it will hopefully stop an additional Brexit Party seat: https://www.remainvoter.com/how-to-vote-south-west

Posted by: Rooney 22nd May 2019, 07:56 PM

I still think The Brexit Party are being over-egged in the polls. I'm sure they will probably get the majority, but the polls look a bit off to me. Be interesting to see.

Posted by: Suedehead2 22nd May 2019, 08:00 PM

Some of their recommendations are decidedly weird. In at least one region they are saying people should vote for ChUK even though I suspect - as I said a few weeks ago - that they will not win any seats.

Posted by: Harve 22nd May 2019, 09:46 PM

The South East and London regions are too large for tactical voting to be useful, even if the polling is very close to the actual result (if it's an Australia-sized error then tactical voting anywhere is useless/will backfire). There I would 100% recommend voting how you feel.

Posted by: Bré 22nd May 2019, 10:05 PM

I was wondering if I should look up what a good tactical vote would be but yeah, I'm in the southeast where it's not really a thing. And I'm definitely not going to vote for the CUKs like that site recommends. Wavering between Lib Dem and Green but I think I'm leaning towards the latter. My first vote for anyone other than Labour!! (only because voting Labour in an EU election feels entirely pointless)

Posted by: Rooney 22nd May 2019, 11:30 PM

Hopefully the pummeling Labour get in this election will be a lesson in how to re-think their strategy. My message to anyone is don't vote Labour if you want to stay in the EU.

Posted by: Iz~ 23rd May 2019, 12:50 AM

I'm voting Lib Dems in the South West, against some tactical voting sites but with what I want to vote for, because the whole business of tactical voting on this system is (well, that site already says that 'Lib Dems already have an MEP', well someone needs to make sure that's the case, we still need to make sure both parties get an MEP and there's enough space to work with it. Very much hope that for both Lib Dems and Green.

The unfortunate thing is that I happen to know that all of the candidates for Labour in the south west are for Remain, but the party nationally isn't.

Posted by: vidcapper 23rd May 2019, 04:54 AM

Only when the bots start walking into polling stations & voting, will I become concerned.

BTW, any guesses on what the turnout level will be?

Posted by: Iz~ 23rd May 2019, 05:15 AM

The concern is well-founded. Social media is well-used by many people, and seeing 'people' agree with it will reassure them of their views if they were a swing voter. Then they start parroting what they've heard off of social media to others. What starts as bots spreading political messages far more often than any human would turns into artificial grassroots, or, well, astroturfing. Making an idea spread when it shouldn't have the support to. You talk about bots walking into polling stations, if a voter has made their choice to vote for a party from listening to these bot accounts, then they might as well be.

This should break electoral funding fairness laws. It happened in 2016, it's happening now and there needs to be regulation over political discourse in the online sphere so it isn't taken over by people with money and inclination to create bot accounts unduly influencing people.

I reckon a turnout somewhere around 40%. Several percentage points up on the other EU elections but nothing too crazy.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 23rd May 2019, 07:04 AM

happening in the US where pen and paper have been dropped for internet-based. Good to know you are in favour of staying old fashioned.

Farage under investigation (again!) this time the EU for not declaring half a million from Aaron Banks corrupt multi-millionaire who's done a runner and not co-operating in investigations as to where his money support came from

Posted by: vidcapper 23rd May 2019, 02:01 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if it's rather less, especially if some Leavers won't think we'll be in for long, and therefore not bother.

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd May 2019, 02:04 PM

Update - as I said earlier, the votes are being verified on Sunday. In my region (South East England), the votes will be counted on Sunday afternoon. This means that the result can be sent to the regional returning officer when the last polls close, i,e, 10pm. (I assume that must be in Portugal). Therefore, the result should be declared fairly shortly after that. I have read that some parts of Scotland (possibly limited to those where the church is still highly influential) will not be counting until Monday.

As it is OK for the votes to be counted (but not declared) before polls close elsewhere, I would guess that most UK regions will do the same as South East England. It makes no sense to count overnight on Sunday and the costs of counting on a Bank Holiday are probably the same as the costs of counting on a Sunday.

I shall be at the Brighton and Hove part of the count for at least part of the day.

In summary, if you are only interested in the results from the UK, you should be able to go to bed before midnight. If you are interested in results from elsewhere, you may have to wait rather longer.

Posted by: vidcapper 23rd May 2019, 03:39 PM

I don't see why we can't count votes on Friday, but then simply not release them until Monday?

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd May 2019, 04:36 PM

I would guess it is largely a matter of reducing the time that people have to keep quiet about the result. Counting on a Friday also takes people away from their regular job, in some cases for the second time this month.

Posted by: Envoirment 23rd May 2019, 04:56 PM

Voted today! The candidate list was so long though, it was almost touching the floor when I was holding it. Went with the Lib Dems - hopefully they'll do even better than what the opinion polls show.

Posted by: Harve 24th May 2019, 12:18 AM

Counting won't be till Sunday, but some councils have verified the turnout tonight. It looks to be roughly the same as 2014 (35.6%), which is less than many were expecting given this year's prominence. Waiting for more results before jumping to conclusions about where turnout has changed in terms of BXP vs. Remain strength, which will be crucial.

Posted by: Steve201 24th May 2019, 01:35 AM

Lower will mean bigger win for Farage?

Posted by: Harve 24th May 2019, 11:17 AM

Really difficult to say.

- Most polls were projecting a higher turnout.
- The BXP vote was stickier, with by far the most supporters declaring that they won't change their mind. Does that also mean that they were definitely gonna turn up to vote? And conversely the other parties could easily stay at home?
- BUT turnout seems to be flat in Leave areas, up slightly in Remain areas, especially if those areas aren't dominated by the two main parties.

Suspect this could mean the Labour result is (even) worse than what polls were showing. Don't want to even try to make predictions about the other parties.

Posted by: Steve201 24th May 2019, 11:21 AM

Yeh I agree. Heard northern areas had lower turnout and south and south west had higher than average. That suggests for me remain voters were out.

My prediction:

Brexit 27%
Labour 15%
Tory 10%
Lib Dems 19%

Posted by: Harve 24th May 2019, 11:33 AM

Also could be a case of elderly voters turning out and younger voters not voting, compared to 2014. Which is a bit yikes.

Posted by: vidcapper 24th May 2019, 02:15 PM

WE'll have to wait several days to find out, though.

Posted by: Envoirment 24th May 2019, 04:52 PM

Or the opposite. All of my friends/cousins voted and my parents/a lot of my aunts/uncles didn't. I don't believe my grandad voted either. I've seen a lot of young(er) people being quite active on social media in regards to the vote. Of course action speaks louder than words though and my experience is rather small/limited.

Hopefully any increases in turnout will be due to remain-backing voters coming out in force.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 24th May 2019, 07:25 PM

Labour MP in the South West has lamented-tweeted polling at the voting hall suggested that area has gone for LibDems in quite a big way. That would be fun if the anecodotal claim is true...

Posted by: Brett-Butler 24th May 2019, 07:30 PM

Tory MEP Daniel Hannan tweeted yesterday that he anticipating the Conservatives winning zero seats in the EU election. Whether he's managing expectations or knows something nobody else knows will be revealed on Sunday - I think the former, they'll probably end up with double digit seats, perhaps high single figures at the very worst. I also revise my original prediction and say that the Brexit Party have topped the poll.

Posted by: LexC 26th May 2019, 04:41 PM

My seats prediction for the UK (minus NI)

Brexit: 25 (+25)
Labour: 16 (-4)
Lib Dem: 16 (+15)
Green: 8 (+5)
Conservative: 2 (-17)
SNP: 2 (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1 (=)
Change UK: 0 (=)
UKIP: 0 (-24)

I reckon the Tories vote is going to be in complete freefall and they'll probably only have one seat apiece in the South East and East Mids. Lib Dems could outpoll Labour in terms of votes but I think they'll be about level in seats.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 05:14 PM

I think a Labour disaster rather than just a mediocre performance will be the real surprise of the night. Their voters have almost definitely not turned out as they did in 2014. Tory voters on the other hand may have done, but of course a large portion will have gone off to the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems - their disaster has already been anticipated.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 05:20 PM

My percentage prediction for GB. Haven't put too much thought into the exact percentages but:

BXP: 34
LD: 23
Lab: 12
Grn: 9.5
Con: 9.5
SNP: 4.5
UKIP: 4
CUK: 2
Plaid: 1

That's more pessimistic than most of those analysing the turnout figures. Hoping I'm wrong.

Posted by: Rooney 26th May 2019, 05:39 PM

Yeah I think they're going to perform pretty terribly. There is loads of PR coming out at the moment from Labour, which makes me think know they will finish 3rd, perhaps even 4th, which is shocking really. I think in total if you add Lib Dems, Greens and SNP together you'll get more seats than the Tories + Brexit Party.

Labour are pretty much finished in terms of being able to gain a majority imo unless they come out and support a 2nd referendum. I think the results will show us there is a large percentage of Labour voters who won't vote for them until they back a 2nd Referendum. What I can't understand is if they did manage to almost win a General Election, surely they would need Lib Dem/Green support. And you would suspect any deal would probably indicate there must be another referendum. Honestly I do worry about the strategies of some of these people.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 05:53 PM

Would agree with all of that! ^

Think another thing the results could suggest to us is that BXP and to a lesser extent Brexit as a whole has become a lot more middle class-friendly since 2016 and UKIP's 2014 win. It's not necessarily promising that posh shire districts which had a roughly equal Remain-Leave split like Chiltern have seen an increased turnout whereas working class, Brexit-voting areas like Wigan have switched to apathy rather than FPBE-style Remain.

Posted by: Steve201 26th May 2019, 05:59 PM

Surely you have to divide Labours seats/vote up between Brexit and remain though and not just say Tory & Brexit Party will be beaten by lib Dems and Greens?

Posted by: Rooney 26th May 2019, 06:31 PM

But right now they are a Brexit supporting party. The general rhetoric from the 2017 election was 80% of people voted for Brexit supporting parties. This is turn has been used by the right of the Conservative Party to justify a Brexit in fantasy land and has what has truly split the country up. You can't call Labour a Remain Party right now as their stance is not clear from the Leadership. I think a lot of Labour voters remember this and won't use their vote to be justified as going for a No Deal Brexit.

To think all this mess could have been avoided if May went for a Soft Brexit in the first place.

Posted by: Andrew. 26th May 2019, 06:41 PM

I’m hoping the SNP will win 3. I’m not sure why all the pollsters seem to be projecting 2 as all the full polls in Scotland have showed us on 3 seats and one showed us possibly getting 4!! Unless they’re basing it off subsamples of UK polls. Think the result up here will be 3 SNP, 1 Brexit, 1 Lib Dem with the last seat being Green or Labour. For the whole UK I’m hoping the Brexit party will underperform (the reports of low turnout in leave areas and higher turnout in remain areas is giving me hope for this), Lib Dems come second, the Greens to do well and also Plaid Cymru to beat labour in Wales, but I’m not 100% sure about that.

Posted by: TheSnake 26th May 2019, 06:46 PM

I was reading a i newspaper article a few days ago that said not only that populist parties were forecast to do well across Europe (which i knew) but also liberal parties were having a revival across Europe (which i didn't know about), so it just goes to show that the UK really fits in with the rest of Europe in terms of electorical trends, with the Lib Dems forecast to do well.

Posted by: *Tim 26th May 2019, 06:52 PM

The Greens gaining *.*

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 26th May 2019, 07:15 PM

The Greens in Germany are predicted to do so well they broke the vote trend graph on ARD! Initial estimates from polling says that a third of under 30’s in Germany backed the Greens. Their turnout was up 4% vs last elections at the halfway point of the day

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th May 2019, 08:21 PM

Britain Elects' predictions are below. Greens' predicted seats are below what some may have expected, but the rest of the seat are in line with what was expected.

Posted by: LexC 26th May 2019, 08:23 PM

Brexit Party as Continuity UKIP making zero net gains is acutally not as bad as I feared it could be.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 08:35 PM

The Greens have done SO well across the continent, proud <3

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 08:36 PM

Hoping they have also done well in the UK as they were very borderline for getting the final seat in lots of regions (West Midlands, SW, Yorkshire, East, Scotland). If they get somewhere like East Midlands then they've absolutely smashed it but that would be beyond my wildest expectations.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 08:36 PM

Well, I have a pretty good idea what happened in Brighton & Hove. However, it would be illegal for me to tell you anything.

Posted by: Rooney 26th May 2019, 08:46 PM

Yeah if that poll is correct it basically shows that the lost seats have esentially gone to Remain. Shows Labour doing better than I thought they would too, but I guess for some of the final seats it's going to be really close.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 08:55 PM

Exactly. It doesn't matter whether you count Labour as in, out or shake it all about, the big winners would be Remain parties.

Posted by: Rooney 26th May 2019, 09:00 PM

Even bigger if Labour actually backed a 2nd Referendum. Seen some stuff on Twitter that the People's Vote campaign (obviously with the support of Tom Watson probably) are going to go hard on Corbyn over the next few weeks in hope of him either resigning or backing a People's Vote.

I'm sure it will be spun though as barely anybody turned up to vote as we all want to leave the EU. Be interesting to see the Vote Split too as it may effect the Tory Leadership. There's definitely no majority for HOC for a No Deal Brexit and there probably isn't one in the General Public too. Which makes you wonder if they do go through with it somehow, it's going to cost them running the country for 20 years.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:03 PM

It appears I've wasted a day. According to the BBC introduction, the Lib Dems weren't taking part in this election.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:21 PM

Tory representative on the BBC - no idea who she is. That means they expect to do very badly indeed,

Lib Dem representative - there doesn't appear to be one. WTF is going on? The party that looks like coming second isn't invite on to the programme.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 09:21 PM

BXP party.... probably not as disappointing as some were hoping. Even if you account for Leave-voting areas having a lower turnout, it looks like they could get around their highest poll projections...

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th May 2019, 09:24 PM

No Brexit Party representative either - just Suzanne Evans, who was ex-MEP for Ukip, but didn't stand for the Brexit Party.

Let's see if they'll have Lib Dem or Brexit Party people (who will likely be the 2 biggest parties at the end of the night) in the studio when they change the in-studio guests in a few hours.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th May 2019, 09:28 PM

First seats on North East - Brexit won 2 seats, Labour won 1. Labour lost 1 seat since 2014, Ukip lost their seat.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:30 PM

They have three people from Leave parties and none from Remain parties. Now they are talking to another Leave representative.

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 09:30 PM

Hopefully we'll see some surprises by the end of the night - Green/Lib Dems doing better than expected and Labour doing as badly as the conservatives.

Really happy to see how well the Greens seem to be doing! Looks like they're going to gain a decent amount compared to last election. It's also nice to see that it looks to be remain-backing parties getting the boost. The brexit party's gains are mainly from UKIP/Conservative voters (+some labour), so not much in the way of a leave surge when looking at it like that. More so a redistribution of leave voters.

Posted by: Andrew. 26th May 2019, 09:34 PM

Omg the SNP are slaying

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:36 PM

Result from Gibraltar

Lib Dem 7,220
Farage 746
Green 467
Lab 411
Con 256
UKIP 84
ChUK 77
Eng Dem 55
Spoilt papers 110, beating UKIP and ChUK

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:39 PM

Kingston result (Vince Cable country)

Lib Dem 25,006
Far 10,197
Green 4,892
Con 4,176
Lab 4,005
ChUK 2,165
UKIP 1,035

The BBC don't seem to have twigged what is going on yet.

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 09:40 PM

Lib Dems won Islington from Labour - where Jeremy Corbyn's seat is. I would say that's quite a big victory for the Lib Dems and may be indicative of what could happen in the next GE.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:40 PM

Labour fifth in Scotland so far

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:43 PM

The Tories got 6.8% in Jack Mogg's local authority area.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 09:50 PM

Stephen Yaxley-Lennon has conceded that he has failed to win a seat.

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 09:52 PM

Looking at some of the polling data, Labour look to be doing almost as bad as the conservatives. Of course still a ways to go.

Posted by: Iz~ 26th May 2019, 09:57 PM

Lib Dems & Greens outperforming both Labour and Conservatives in the East Of England - making it Brexit 3, Lib Dem 2 with Green and Conservatives getting 1 apiece. I think way better than my expectations for the Remain parties.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th May 2019, 09:58 PM

Don't think that was ever in doubt. Having said that, if he ended up with a vote into 5 figures, then that would be rather troubling. I doubt an independent candidate would ever win an EU seat in the UK - the particracy of the list-system makes sure of that.

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 10:00 PM

It looks likely the greens will get a seat in the North-West as well. The polls predict they'll gain 4 seats, but I believe they may get more with how the votes are going! Lib Dems doing very well as well. It's quite refreshing to see. Now if only they could get the same media coverage as other parties.

Posted by: Andrew. 26th May 2019, 10:03 PM

LIB DEMS 1ST IN LONDON *.* *.* *.*

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 10:04 PM

The Lib Dem gains in London!!! So happy *_*

Posted by: Iz~ 26th May 2019, 10:05 PM

Lib Dems topping the poll in London! I didn't think they were going to get away with that!

That means 3 MEPs from that. Hey hey.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 10:06 PM

I believe I dismissed the idea of the Lib Dems coming first in London as ridiculous a couple weeks ago. Rarely have I been so pleased to be proved wrong!

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 10:09 PM

Tbf the Lib Dems have done a fantastic job campaigning in London. I've seen them multiple times campaigning around whilst out.

Greens also get 1 seat in the London area - that's 2 for them so far tonight!

Posted by: Rooney 26th May 2019, 10:12 PM

They might get one in Yorkshire too. Big win for the Remain parties.

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 10:13 PM

No conservatives in sight:

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 10:21 PM

Wow, Alastair Campbell has said he voted Lib Dem!

Posted by: Andrew. 26th May 2019, 10:24 PM

Plaid Cymru beating Labour

Posted by: coi 26th May 2019, 10:28 PM

Brexit Party take two in Wales, one PC and one Lab.

Posted by: coi 26th May 2019, 10:30 PM

West Midlands goes for three Brexit Party MEPs, one each for Labour, Lib Dem, Green and Conservative.

Posted by: coi 26th May 2019, 10:38 PM

Yorkshire and the Humber has three for the Brexit Party and one each for Labour, Lib Dem and Green

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 10:41 PM

Remain parties lucky in Yorkshire and the West Midlands in the way the votes fell and the way D'Hondt works: the Lib Dems and Greens won one seat each off the Tories and Labour, with their strong performances meaning that BXP don't make gains in terms of MEPs over UKIP. That would make up for the Cuks denying them seats in the East and Wales.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 26th May 2019, 10:50 PM

SNP destroying the vote in Scotland

Posted by: coi 26th May 2019, 10:50 PM

Three Brexit Party MEPs including Annunziata Rees-Mogg in the East Midlands, with one Lib Dem and one Labour.

Posted by: Iz~ 26th May 2019, 10:51 PM

Lib Dem + Green getting more votes than the Brexit party overall in the South West!

3 MEPs on each side of the divide but that's incredible for both of them.

Posted by: Envoirment 26th May 2019, 10:54 PM

The Greens up to 5 MEPs so far - they'll likely add some more once all the results are in. Outperforming polls already.

The Lib Dems on 10 MEPs so far, with their vote share above 20%!

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 10:55 PM

The clearest example yet that the Tories have done extraordinarily badly - they have now put up Mark Francois on the BBC coverage,

Amazingly, the BBC have finally got a Lib Dem on the panel. I wonder if she will be allowed to speak.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 26th May 2019, 11:04 PM

Yes, The Lib Dem who would have just lost her seat back to the SNP had this been a GE and not the Euros.


It’s excellent to see the SNP getting coverage on the BBC.......oh wait

Posted by: coi 26th May 2019, 11:29 PM

South East has four for the Brexit Party, three for Lib Dems, and one each for Green, Conservative and Labour.

Posted by: Andrew. 26th May 2019, 11:32 PM

The people at the North West Count laughing at Tommy Robinson’s flop vote total *.*

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th May 2019, 11:33 PM

An ex-Revolutionary Communist has been nominated as an MEP for the North West Region. Surprisingly, for the Brexit Party.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2019, 11:41 PM

The Brexit Party will finish on 29 seats across the UK, 5 MEPs more than UKIP's 2014 performance when EU membership was a fringe issue.

Not too bad when you word it like that. But quite a shake-up otherwise: the Peterborough by-election will look very interesting.

Posted by: coi 26th May 2019, 11:42 PM

So far then, with just Scotland and NI to go, it’s 28 for the Brexit Party, 15 for the Lib Dems, 10 for Labour, 7 for the Greens, 3 for the Conservatives, and one for Plaid Cymru.

Posted by: Suedehead2 26th May 2019, 11:48 PM

Now that I can say a bit more, the Greens won in Brighton and Hove with the Lib Dems, who didn't win any council seats three weeks earlier (even where I was the candidate), second.

Oh, it's just been confirmed.

Posted by: Steve201 26th May 2019, 11:57 PM

It wasn't a fringe issue in 2014, the referendum was the elephant in the room with a Tory win one year later meaning it would be on the horizon. The UKIP win then affected that result hugely!

Posted by: Steve201 26th May 2019, 11:58 PM

Tories haven't come top of the poll in a single Local Authority - worst performance since 1832. In a GE they would have won 0 seats in the House of Commons.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 12:10 AM

Given that it’s only the Western Isles still to declare (they won’t count on a Sunday) the Scottish result is de facto in. The islands aren’t big enough to change anything.

3 SNP
1 Nazi
1 Lib Dem
1 Cuntservative

Great for the SNP. Substantially more than double the percentage of 2nd and a substantial rejection of Ruth Davidson’s “vote Tory to tell Nicola no more referendums (for those counting this is now the 4th election Ruth has fought and lost substantially to the SNP on that platform”


The mainland has gone wholly SNP yellow, we were 5% behind in Shetland which is amazing and we will probably win the Western Isles tomorrow. When you look on a map, it’s mad to think that Scotland is the same country as England/Wales. You’d never think it

Posted by: Harve 27th May 2019, 12:13 AM

It might've been a topic at Tory conference but the public weren't engaged with the issue of EU membership at all. Even the 2014-15 UKIP campaigns focused on migration as much as they did EU membership.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th May 2019, 12:17 AM

Oh dear, what a shame

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 12:24 AM

It isnt the same country though

What's the difference between a c**t and a Nazi?

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 12:25 AM

GE a different beast obviously but fun to see all the same. Awaits new Tory leadership candidates to become arch brexiteers all of a sudden!!

Posted by: coi 27th May 2019, 12:26 AM

When even the SNP are set to get more votes than UKIP or Change UK...

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th May 2019, 12:31 AM

Lib Dems finished top in Hammersmith and Fulham by a long way. Another extraordinary result.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 12:33 AM

That depends entirely on who you ask. Becoming harder and harder for unionists to say that we’re better together or one country.


The difference appears to just be the shade of blue they prefer


And still John Curtice won’t add us to the remain parties tally and yet UKIP get added to the leave tally. His cards firmly f***ing marked

Posted by: Harve 27th May 2019, 12:39 AM

BXP: 31.5
LD: 20.5
Lab: 14
Grn: 12
Con: 9
SNP: 3.5
CUK: 3.5
UKIP: 3.5
Plaid: 1

Pretty good! I was too optimistic for all of the right wing parties so yay.

Posted by: coi 27th May 2019, 12:43 AM

So with almost all of the UK’s votes counted we can start to reflect on it. The Brexit Party finish convincingly ahead of the rest with 31.6% of the votes, the Lib Dems have a fairly impressive 20.3% to easily take second, Labour have 14.1%, the Greens have improved to a decent 12.1%, the Conservatives have dropped to just 9.1%, the SNP have 3.6% and, despite only being in Scotland, their landslide in the region gets them more votes than Change UK (3.4%) and UKIP (3.3%). Plaid Cymru have 1% and of course one MEP. Also worth considering that turnout is at 36.7%.

I’m heading off now, I’ll leave you to keep discussing it.

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 12:44 AM

Lol he can't because people vote for nationalist parties for other reasons other than Brexit so he's breaking up the vote between leave and remain!

Brexit has lead to the SNP getting an extra 5-7 years of total hegemony in Scotland and possibly another independence vote in that time.

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 12:45 AM

Yes the turnout is important. 37% compared to 72% in the 2016 referendum.

Posted by: coi 27th May 2019, 12:49 AM

Yes, more people voted to leave in that referendum than even voted in this election (so far, I expect that might change) so of course there’s only so much we can speculate!

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 12:50 AM

Both Plaid and the SNP are aggressively pro-Remain. The SNP tabled a revoke option in Westminster- they’re arguably THE most remain party in the UK. It’s misleading and manipulative to exclude 4.5% share of the vote from the pro-remain pile. The only explanation is that is distorts whatever pro-Brexit narrative the bbc we’re trying to push today.



As anyone with a brain cell has been saying all along. Brexit will end the UK and English colonialism once and for all

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 12:52 AM

That’s not a valid comparison to make. A lot of political commentators are doing everything but compare this to 2014 which is astonishing as they get paid to not make these ridiculous f*** ups

Posted by: coi 27th May 2019, 12:55 AM

Of course, it’s just to emphasise the low turnout in comparison to that referendum for people like them that are putting remain and leave piles together as if it was a second referendum. These are indeed European elections like we had in 2014, although to be fair it’s not that easy to compare as the party that had the most votes in this election didn’t even exist at the time of the last one.

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 12:58 AM

I take your point about the SNP, I mean they are only 5% behind the tories nationally 🙈 But they can't compare SNP votes in Scotland with Tory/Labour/Lib Dem votes throughout the UK which is the point at hand tbf.

Posted by: Harve 27th May 2019, 12:58 AM

About 80% of the SNP's current vote would vote Remain in a second referendum. This was as low as two thirds in the past, but the demographics of independence voters has changed since then.

John Curtice's maths also implies that just 24% (Greens + LD + Change) of Scotland voted for a pro-Remain party which is clearly ridiculous given its voting history.

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 01:23 AM

But if we are to draw any inference from SNP votes being large in Scotland it has to be that they are taking the same kind of votes that Lib Dems, Greens and to an extent Labour are taking in England. Same for Plaid, I mean, they have the remain seat in Wales now. Not the Tories and certainly not the far-right lot. As Harve points out, the amount of people voting for the SNP yet still wanting out of the EU is very low.

So Scotland is clearly pro-Remain... as it has always been.

Posted by: Andrew. 27th May 2019, 01:35 AM

I don't think the BBC are pro-Brexit. A lot of remainers think they are, but I'm sure if you asked leave voters most of them would say it's pro-remain. That both sides think they're biased against them shows they're doing the right thing, imo.

Pleased at how well the Greens have done nationwide, surprised they didn't really move in Scotland though. Also delighted at the Lib Dem's performance, they're c*nts in Scotland but I like the rUK party so nm aha

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 02:30 AM

The overarching problem with the BBC isn't that they are pro-Brexit, although too many of their top political people clearly lean that way, it's that in their relentless pursuit of neutrality they give equal weight to both sides even when one side is clearly far less credible than the other. They don't push some guests enough, and they push some guests, like Emily Thornberry earlier tonight, too far. On the other hand, when I first tuned in they gave a good interview to Ed Davey where he was challenged and gave him good opportunity to respond. There is a problem, but it's not there all the time. The worst thing is their choice of guests, whoever they are, it legitimizes their outloook and sets the stage for the argument where it perhaps shouldn't be.

But in any case, tonight's example they showcased Brexit Party acceptance speeches tonight with none of those, that I saw, from Lib Dem or Green MEP acceptances. So Anne Widdecombe et al got to peddle their nonsense acceptance speech rhetoric on a political programme, but others did not.

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 02:52 AM

On wider Europe, I'm amused to discover that beyond the old Europe For Freedom And Democracy (EFD, old UKIP alliance, now Brexit Party) reinvented itself slightly by adding 'Direct' to its name to show its support for controversial binary referenda, and the founded in 2014 Europe For Nations And Freedom (ENF, nu-UKIP), where all the racist right-wing nuts fled after EFD wasn't eurosceptic enough for them, that Lega Nord and Front National have been creating yet another group.

European Alliance Of People And Nations, yet more bluster contained within a title to disguise what they are. New anti-immigration wing of the European Parliament, and considering how well those two parties seem to have done in the elections, a reasonably significant one.

But yes, Front National out in front in France, with En Marche's alliance fairly close behind. Lega Nord dominating in Italy.

Germany looks much more sane with Merkel's CDU for the EPP leading for now, while Spain has their S&D reps leading, PSOE.

Labour/social democrat parties leading in Netherlands and Sweden too. Not certain if these are final results yet, but quite differing pictures in each country.

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 03:05 AM

And just like that found a full projection result:

https://europeelects.eu/ep2019/
EPP - centre-right - 165 (down 56)
S&D - centre-left - 141 (down 50)
ALDE - liberals - 115 (up 48)
Greens-EFA - green - 75 (up 25)
ENF/EAPD - right-wing - 74 (up 37)
ECR - conservatives - 57 (down 13)
GUE-NGL - left-wing - 42 (down 10)
EFDD - populists - 0 (down 48)*
Non-Inscrits - nazis, satirists, communists - 13 (down 2)**

*Brexit Party is officially unaffiliated right now, and UKIP did make up the bulk of this grouping, so they may join this or the new EAPD, or may remain unaffiliated because of impending withdrawal, who knows really?
**yes, this is included in the source, MEPs who are too controversial to be part of any political group

So, great results for liberals and green across Europe, right-wingers basically swallowing the populists into their new grouping to show a modest increase, a rejection of traditional centre-left and centre-right parties, which is somewhat surprising as I thought that continent-wide, S&D were going to sweep ahead of EPP into pole position, but looking at the largest groupings in each country, outside of Iberia and Sweden, it is still EPP which is the largest grouping in most of the smaller nations.

Posted by: *Tim 27th May 2019, 07:03 AM

I'm so happy with these results! It seems the people are opening their eyes regarding climate change and the mess that is Brexit prevented the EU sceptics to become even bigger. So we partly have y'all to thank I guess

Posted by: Popchartfreak 27th May 2019, 07:41 AM

So, what I take from these results:

Remain parties easily outdid Brexit parties in votes. Bearing in mind how rabidly they vote, Brexit didn;t have a convincing message to leave with no deal despite all they are hyped-up claiming, farage with his usual post-election hard-on mouth frothing. The Farage Fan Club (The FFC's) have basically just changed name and added in a few Tories. Labour haven't added to their totals, despite claims to the contrary, because most former-Labour voters switched back in 2014 to UKIP - that's what happened to all the people I know who were former Labour voters, and voted UKIP. All of the traffic from Labour voters was to Remain parties, and Corbyn has totally lost his authority. Labour either goes full-pelt for a referendum or they are finished as much as Tories, who have also lost voters to Remain parties, but mostly to FFC.

If ChUK had done a deal with LIbdems, they would have won more seats and this would have been even more obviously a big gain for Bollocks To Brexit.

Only 1/3 voted so.....Brexit parties can sod off if they think that 40% of one-third means they have authority for anything. Only Tories will be cacking their pants over what to do next. Labour's choices are very clear - choose Referendum or die. Brexit supporters arent voting Labour and havent voted Labour for 5 years. They are already lost.

Ann Widdecombe wont be turning up on reality TV shows, which is a huge relief that her homophobic views are restricted to a seat she probably wont turn up for, unless it's it's to claim her massive new pension for doing nothing.

Loads of Brexit supporters turning up for gold-plated pensions, and doing nothing for their areas as usual, when money is available to be claimed, and the marvellous site of Ress-Frogg's entitled sister getting voted in by former mining-areas is a delicious irony not lost on me. So lost in reasoning that they vote for rich toffs who only want to screw them further down and destroy all workers legislation, end the NHS (quote Farage himself) and make themselves richer.

As always, with half of people, the bigger picture is totally lost on them as they get worked up over their own pet peeves believing it will make life better when it won't.

Posted by: Rooney 27th May 2019, 09:10 AM

The results basically tell us the country is spilt and without Labour deciding what they want to do, there is no majority for anything. By their in/out policy they have really been given a kicking. I guess the next few days will tell us if they listen or not.

If we have a General Election right now, I don't think it will sort anything. The Tories (unless they get a Hard-Brexiteer) and Labour will take a hammering. Both will need coalition partners. Labour HAVE to come out now and support a 2nd referendum be it on the back of a general alection win or before. Lib Dems and ChUK will merge or form an alliance.

I think if you looked at the data too, a lot of the lost Tory votes actually went to the Remain parties too. Which again, if you are a strategiest and have some foresight, pushing ahead with a Hard Brexit might win ahead the support of the Backbenchers, but it will cost them dearly in the long-run.

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 09:22 AM

On the one hand you say if ChUk had done a deal with the LDs they would have won more seats and been an even more gain to the bollocks to Brexit lot then you say they can sod off if 40% of 1/3 who voted for so called No deal parties. You can't interpret it both ways to fit your view.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th May 2019, 09:24 AM

The BBC's coverage last night was shockingly bad. For the first time ever, I switched off and went to bed with several results still undeclared.

If you count the Farage Fanclub as the successor tio UKUP (which, effectively, they are), the big winners were the Lib Dems with the Greens also doing very well That was not reflected in the BBC's coverage.

The panel at the beginning of the programme had nobody from an unequivocally Remain-supporting party, despite the fact that two of them looked like finishing second and third. The failure at any point to compare the Farage Fanclub with UKIP exaggerated their success and led to them ignoring the more significant shift in votes.

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 09:47 AM

European countries generally opt for political alliances in these situations. It is unusual because in most elections, even European parties like this wouldn't do that as they're all aiming for different blocs and power blocs within the European Parliament but none of this election focused at all on what the MEPs will do in their seats beyond surface level.

The reason I bring it up is that there was no political savvy reason for Change UK not to form an alliance with the Lib Dems, newly formed, even if some of them weren't liberal, they shared a common goal for what this election was truly going to be about. Talking about that is a matter of effectiveness. I reckon, without doing the maths, that it would have landed the Lib Dems 3-4 more MEPs, putting them rather close in MEP share to the Farage Party.

The take away from this is purely that the Eurosceptic lot who voted UKIP last time are still mostly extant and Eurosceptic just with a name-change. Basically everyone else with a strong opinion has deserted the two main parties to prop up smaller, Remain parties.

I'm not sure why we can't interpret the popular vote like this:
38-40% (I'm not getting consistent numbers on this but it's around there) - Unambiguous pro-Remain parties (LDs, Greens, SNP, Plaid, CUK)
35% - Unambiguous pro-No-Deal parties (Brexit, UKIP)
22% - Traditional parties that represent voters voting on tribal loyalties/softer Brexit-people's vote stances, no hard conclusions to be drawn from this batch (Lab, Con)

The low turnout muddies conclusions for future directions quite a lot but stances like strong No Deal and strong Remain are the sort that inspires turnout. Particularly the former is so insane that I reckon that most of the batch that actually want it did indeed vote for the Brexit Party on Thursday, which means that its total mandate is nowhere near enough that it should be seriously considered by the government. After all, 2014's UKIP vote ended up mattering not one bit on a GE level.

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 09:52 AM

Mind, this goddamn interview with Anne Widdecombe is playing on my mind:

imagine being from the electoral region that voted this idiot into first place... oh wait, shit.

Posted by: Rooney 27th May 2019, 09:56 AM

Just a pure populist movement. Say the things they want people to hear, but then have absolutely no idea how to implement ideas. Fortunately for them a large part of out country is stupid so they will lap it up.

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 10:09 AM

The last sentence is true but post referendum might turnout to be false is stalemate continues although it won't after this result.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 10:29 AM

Results at the moment are being interpreted to bolster whatever that persons views already are. It’s the ultimate echo chamber election.

A few things are clear though in my opinion


Wales is starting to wake up to Plaid and looks like a very polarised Farage vs Leanne future is on the cards
England is still a leave country for the most part. Neither main party will recover while living standards are so low
Still nobody exploring the narrative that Austerity = leave vote - when that is what appears to be a decisive factor
Scotland still firmly a remain country
In spite of Ruth’s mooth and the unequivocal backing of the Scottish MSM, the Tories have stood and lost an election on the same platform for 4 votes in a row, and yet they still remain unchallenged in their delusions
After 12 years in power, the SNP is clearly not going anywhere. Another election where their vote share has increased vs last time. See also the last holyrood and council elections
A green wave shows that at long last people are starting to wake up to environmental issues
Labour sitting on the fence over Brexit will ultimately harm it in the GE it craves so badly, that it cannot see that is so frustrating

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 10:42 AM

SNP tweeting 30/32 so it looks like our fundamentalist friends out in the Islands off the northwest have finally got round to counting and have returned the expected SNP win. Should see confirmation shortly of that 3-1-1-1 seat allocation from Alba

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 11:04 AM

Leanne? Leanne Wood? Adam Price is the PC leader at present.

Be interesting to see if SNP votes here turn into independence votes in a second referendum. I'm not 100% convinced.

Posted by: T Boy 27th May 2019, 11:07 AM

Leanne isn’t leading Plaid anymore, Adam Price is currently their leader.

Leanne is still outspoken on Twitter though so remains an absolute icon.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th May 2019, 11:26 AM

In South East England Alexandra Phillips was elected twice. There is a Farage Fanclub MEP of that name as well as the newly -installed mayor of Brighton and Hove who was elected as a Green MEP.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 27th May 2019, 11:32 AM

Aware that Leanne isn’t leader anymore but farage isn’t the leader of the welsh faction that will go forwards at an assembly election either. Didn’t know the new PC guys name but let’s be honest that Plaid are only where they are because of Leanne. She started the journey. Wonder if like Salmond she’ll return for another go in the future

Posted by: Andrew. 27th May 2019, 11:43 AM

Yeah, all this adding up parties to get a leave/remain vote is a bit...silly, and I’m surprised actual elected officials have been doing it. Where the labour (and to a lesser extent the tories) vote goes for example is just down to however you want to spin it.

I can’t say I completely agree. Leanne Wood was popular online, mostly with people who could never vote for her but in terms of success at elections Plaid utterly stagnated during her time, despite receiving more coverage and promenince than ever. In five years of leadership she got one good result which was gaining the Rhondda at the welsh assembly but apart from that I’m not sure.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th May 2019, 12:11 PM

Northern Ireland counting is still underway - as expected, Sinn Fein and the DUP have come 1st and 2nd and expected to be carried fairly early in the counting, but the 3rd seat looks like to have gone to Naomi Long of Alliance, which would see the UUP lose their seat.

Posted by: Iz~ 27th May 2019, 12:30 PM

But most people that are adding up the results are specifically not including either Labour or the Tories.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/11BF3/production/_107119627_brexit_pos-nc.png I think that's very fair to do.

Posted by: Chez Wombat 27th May 2019, 12:47 PM

Fantastic to see the Greens and Lib Dems do fairly well across the board (and almost on par with the Brexit Party if you're combining stances), Greens doing well around Europe is especially pleasing to see. Very pleased for London to go Lib Dems and Green got a seat as well, I was hoping they would get more but I'm glad to have helped them to that seat and no Tories festering there is bloody brilliant (even if the Brexit Party got two seats).

I guess a negative shows we're still very much divided and there's no clear stance about where the public want to go for Brexit even if it is just a small sample, just like the MPs :/ And ofc. the left wing parties surge will be completely pushed under the rug and just the Brexit Party alone will be used to determine the public's view on Brexit.

Posted by: Andrew. 27th May 2019, 01:31 PM

The tories, which ran with the slogan that 'they were the only party which can deliver Brexit' in this election should be with leave though? It was a good result for remain parties and I'm glad, but the spin from other remainers has been questionable, which is the first time I can really say that compared to the leavers.

Posted by: Rooney 27th May 2019, 01:43 PM

You can spin the results anyway really. Look at some of the cities like Liverpool/Manchester that we’re Remain, they also heavily voted Labour. Who knows really if that was because they were pro-EU or Leave. Truth is lots of people will vote Labour or stories because they have always done that. Labour have done the unique thing of alientating the working class and the lower middle-class with their Brexit stance. The Tories message was Leave but with the Withdraw agreement. No that is dead and buried we won’t know their stance until the leader is confirmed. Obviously they will still be Brexit, but what kind of Brexit will depend on their leader.

Only way you can really look at these results is clear a lot of the Tory/Labour voters have deserted them to either pro-EU or Leave at all costs parties.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 27th May 2019, 03:26 PM

I agree. Neither side has a ticket to anything because not enough voted. However, it's Farridge that is claiming the whole country wants a No-Deal Brexit, when in fact it's only been voted for by roughly one-third of one-third of the population - my Maths is shaky but I make that around 12-15% of the country, if we assume that everyone who voted FFC totally wants No Deal and accept that Farridge can read the minds of each and everyone. If everyone was that committed to it they should have turned up to vote for FFC, and obtained 52% of the vote. They didn't.

Of the rest of the nation, another 14-17% likely want a referendum, and the rest we haven't a clue. One way of finding out is to ask them to vote on the remaining option: No Deal or No Brexit. There are no other options left unless we start the whole process all over again for another 2 years.

Posted by: Rooney 27th May 2019, 03:37 PM

News coming out of the Labour camp is Corbyn is dithering around what to do, wanting to enter consultation until the next conference. They are going to get strung in any GE. I don't know who is advising him, but they are clueless. Hopefully the more conservative members of the party organise a coupe.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th May 2019, 03:47 PM

I'm willing to give Corbyn some advice. Resign.

Posted by: Popchartfreak 27th May 2019, 06:42 PM

It's his Far-Left matey obsessives that still cling to the vision of a pure Socialist utopia outside the corrupt materialistic bourgeois EU. Taking the plebs down the tube with your own country is of secondary importance to the goal they've always wanted and see as within their grasp if only Corbyn can hang in there until the Tories collapse and Labour can inherit the Crown.

An inability to see reality is usually a giveaway that they've lost the plot, if they actually ever had it, pumped up in this case by incoming naive young folk who believed in the vision they were sold by a bunch of old long-time radicals who'd tried and failed before when the previous generation spotted them for what they are, but which they still blame the failure for on others instead of their own illogic and intolerance, and inability to convince. IMHO of course.

Posted by: TheSnake 27th May 2019, 06:52 PM

Alliance are strongly linked to the Lib Dems so that's another victory for them.



Yes it seems to be a thing for the far-left to be eurosceptic, hence the aforementioned former revolutionary communist running for the Brexit Party.

Posted by: Steve201 27th May 2019, 08:15 PM

Not saying LWs leadership hasn't had an affect but it was Brexit again which had the biggest effect here as PC have been similar to the snp being hugely pro remain - if it wasn't for the LDs they'd have won even more votes.

Posted by: Iz~ 28th May 2019, 02:57 AM

The EU is an opponent to far leftists just as much if not more than for far-right wingers because they couldn't really disagree with it more, economically. The right wing disagreement with the EU is more social and cultural in nature, although they might prefer the single market to be a bit freer.

An interesting thread I read on Twitter yesterday contains the point that these elections have been dictated a lot more by culture than by economy, which is why the left-wing right now is mostly supportive of the EU while the right-wing is against it.

Posted by: vidcapper 28th May 2019, 04:49 AM

I wouldn't describe the Brexit party as 'far right' as they are basically UKIP Mk2.

Posted by: Iz~ 28th May 2019, 05:01 AM

And I wouldn't necessarily call Corbyn far-left, as he does either. He's obviously using them as relative ideological terms to categorise parties opposed to the centre though, as opposed to snarl words.

The trouble with the Brexit party right now is that they can evade being ideologically placed, so the statements of their new MEPs will be very important to place them. There is a distinction is that the Brexit Party is at this moment far more populist and less anti-immigration than Front National or Lega, which is precisely why they're in a different European Parliament grouping, they do seem to now be in the legacy UKIP position under the EFDD.

Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd June 2019, 03:04 PM

Anne Widdicombe has said that science might one day find a "solution" to homosexuality. Didn't take long for the Farage fanclub to start showing its true colours, did it?

Posted by: Popchartfreak 2nd June 2019, 06:44 PM

me-thinks she doth protest too much.

She does love cats though.

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 3rd June 2019, 10:00 AM

I wonder if science could provide a "solution" for that old gorgon.

Posted by: TheSnake 3rd June 2019, 10:14 AM

This could be a headache for Farage and the Brexit party considering that's partly why Farage left UKIP - to try and escape the controversies created by some of its candidates. Will be interesting to see how Farage responds when questioned about Widdecombe's comments, will he do better than Batten at containing the fallout.

Posted by: mald487 3rd June 2019, 10:44 AM

I wonder if science will ever find a solution to nasty, old, racist, backward, homophobic see you next Tuesdays?