Does anyone here honestly think Boris will lose his seat? |
Track this topic - Email this topic - Print this topic - Download this topic - Subscribe to this forum |
Nov 4 2019, 11:01 PM
Post
#1
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
Assuming he stands there and haven't heard anything yet to suggest he's not. Assume BXP will stand there and The Lib-Dems will put up a good fight. A 5000 majority isn't huge but there are a lot less majorities in the country.
2017 GE. Conservative Boris Johnson 23,716 Labour Vincent Low 18,682 Lib. Dem Rosina Robson 1,835 UKIP Lizzy Kemp 1,577 Green Mark Keir 884 Majority 5,034 |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:04 PM
Post
#2
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
Well election expert Curtice reckons he'll be okay due to the "PM Factor" The fact that he's the PM will make many people vote for him whereas had he not been PM the seat could be lost.
This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 4 2019, 11:05 PM |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:07 PM
Post
#3
|
|
I Drink Wine
Group: Entertainment Mod
Posts: 10,480 Member No.: 21,753 Joined: 12-April 15
No Gallery Pics
|
It would be a possibility if the LD and Greens stand aside and the Brexit Party stand against him.
|
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:08 PM
Post
#4
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
|
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:08 PM
Post
#5
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Group: Moderator
Posts: 12,775 Member No.: 10,455 Joined: 16-January 10
No Gallery Pics
|
No, I'd be surprised if he did. the PM bounce and all that.
|
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:09 PM
Post
#6
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
|
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:16 PM
Post
#7
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Veteran
Posts: 36,581 Member No.: 3,272 Joined: 13-April 07
No Gallery Pics
|
The weekend before the 1997 election, the Observer published the results of an opinion poll they had commissioned in a string of key seats. It showed that there was a possibility that Michael Portillo could lose his previously very safe seat. The following Thursday, he lost his seat. Whether that poll contributed the the result can never be ascertained for certain, but it is a distinct possibility.
We know that Labour have already done a lot of campaigning in that seat over the last two years and they will be campaigning hard in the coming weeks. An opinion poll showing them at least to be within touching distance of winning could lead to a very memorable moment on election night. |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:21 PM
Post
#8
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Veteran
Posts: 36,581 Member No.: 3,272 Joined: 13-April 07
No Gallery Pics
|
No, I'd be surprised if he did. the PM bounce and all that. The PM has indeed normally done well in their seat even when their party has done badly. Look at John Major's Huntingdon in 1997. However, there was a 4% swing to Labour in Theresa May's Maidenhead last time. |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:39 PM
Post
#9
|
|
there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Group: AF Leader
Posts: 13,085 Member No.: 22,895 Joined: 21-January 16
No Gallery Pics
|
If only! Depends how he campaigns and how many face to faces he can manage to avoid.
The more people who can see what a disgusting liar and charlatan he is in person, the better chance! Absolute disgrace of a human being. |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:57 PM
Post
#10
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
If only! Depends how he campaigns and how many face to faces he can manage to avoid. The more people who can see what a disgusting liar and charlatan he is in person, the better chance! Absolute disgrace of a human being. TBH I can't really see him having time to campaign that much in his own seat. He'll probably leave it to Tory activists on the ground to go knocking on doors. |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:57 PM
Post
#11
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
If only! Depends how he campaigns and how many face to faces he can manage to avoid. The more people who can see what a disgusting liar and charlatan he is in person, the better chance! Absolute disgrace of a human being. Don't you like him? This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 4 2019, 11:57 PM |
|
|
Nov 4 2019, 11:59 PM
Post
#12
|
|
I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Group: Moderator
Posts: 114,934 Member No.: 8,300 Joined: 14-February 09
|
It'd be hilarious if he lost but I think it's very unlikely. If he was really in danger of losing he'd presumably move himself to a more solidly Tory seat.
|
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 12:04 AM
Post
#13
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
|
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 12:06 AM
Post
#14
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
|
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 12:41 AM
Post
#15
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Veteran
Posts: 36,581 Member No.: 3,272 Joined: 13-April 07
No Gallery Pics
|
|
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 05:36 AM
Post
#16
|
|
Paul Hyett
Group: Banned
Posts: 25,346 Member No.: 364 Joined: 4-April 06
No Gallery Pics
|
Has *any* PM ever lost their seat in a GE?
|
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 07:57 AM
Post
#17
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
From Wiki.
No. This is the closest actually. Arthur Balfour was the Prime Minister until December 1905. He quit, taking his party into opposition. Liberal leader Henry Campbell Bannerman succeeded him and called a general election. In this ensuing February 1906 general election, Mr Balfour lost his Manchester seat, but was back in the Commons weeks later when he won the safe City of London by-election created by the deliberate vacancy. This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 5 2019, 07:58 AM |
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 06:12 PM
Post
#18
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Group: Members
Posts: 8,481 Member No.: 10,030 Joined: 21-November 09
No Gallery Pics
|
It would be a possibility if the LD and Greens stand aside and the Brexit Party stand against him. This is pretty much the only way. It would be quite the shock, but I feel even with the above he'll manage to get the seat, albeit by a small margin - perhaps as small as Justine Greening's in the last election. |
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 07:21 PM
Post
#19
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
I think IDS could well lose his seat. He only had a majority of 2,342 at the last election in Chingford and Woodford Green.
Labour and the Lib-Dems will both try to unseat him. This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 5 2019, 07:36 PM |
|
|
Nov 5 2019, 07:25 PM
Post
#20
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Group: Members
Posts: 21,996 Member No.: 53 Joined: 7-March 06
No Gallery Pics
|
Here are the 10 most marginal seats in the UK.
1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew Sinn Féin 4 2. Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson Labour 42 3 North Warwickshire Daniel Byles Conservative 54 4 Camborne and Redruth George Eustice Conservative 66 5 Bolton West Julie Hilling Labour 92 5 Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price Conservative 92 7 Oldham East and Saddleworth* Phil Woolas Labour 103 8 Hendon Matthew Offord Conservative 106 9 Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield Labour 165 10 Solihull Lorely Burt Liberal Democrat 175 This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 5 2019, 07:32 PM |
|
|
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 29th March 2024 - 12:59 PM |
Copyright © 2006 - 2023 BuzzJack.com
About | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service