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BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Friday Chart Predictions
Posted by: Mart!n 27th December 2015, 12:24 PM
I didn't forget, usually the topic drops on a Saturday, but it was a tad pointless with hardly new releases, it seems all the Christmas tracks have dropped out and the old music returning back inside the top 40 singles chart. Nothing new in the album chart just some albums will be rebounding back up the chart since the January sales have started alreaady.
In case any chart info drops today, I doubt it, there will be the chart update from Radio 1 and the full Top 100 from OCC at some point Monday evening. And finally please read the following footnote when asking for any chart requests this week before posting..
Breakdown of the week
- Saturday and Sunday: Information on Twitter from MintRoyale only. Please do not make requests, we do not have any information other than what's posted.
- Monday: OCC Top 100 + Radio 1 Chart Update 5:30pm to 5:45pm.
- Tuesday: Top 40 update as and when we receive them with requests, this is NOT 100% guaranteed however. The OCC may publish sales flashes of their own accord but likewise, this is not guaranteed. Twitter and social media is your friend for today. Please post any information you find with a source. Do not nag for updates, we will post a top 40 update if we receive one.
- Wednesday: Top 40 update from Music Week from 5:45, and potential top 5 sales but this is not guaranteed.
- Thursday: See Tuesday.
Other notes (please read)
- Please do not demand a midweek update, one will be posted as and when we receive the information. Patience is a virtue.
- Sales information will be given out as deemed necessary by a moderator, please bear this in mind when making requests.
- To keep everyone in the loop of all chart action, please refer to the iTunes and Spotify threads.
**NOTE: At this time of year, we are NOT GUARANTEED any of the above updates other than the Monday update. Please DO NOT NAG for an update, because you will only get a blank response!**
Posted by: JimmyTinsel 27th December 2015, 12:41 PM
Minty tweeting about Louisa being at #56....
Posted by: slowdown73 27th December 2015, 12:44 PM
That's embarrassingly bad if true. I suspect Bieber will dominate the top two positions, maybe even top 3.
Posted by: Mart!n 27th December 2015, 01:02 PM
I should imagine there is a lot of streaming data missing, probably 2 days worth because of the Christmas/ Boxing Day has not been collated.
Posted by: -SCOTT- 27th December 2015, 01:08 PM
Wouldn't that push her down even further?
Posted by: SLlewellyn 27th December 2015, 01:17 PM
Sadly, yes. I'd say I'm confused as to why this particular winner's song is doing so poorly, but it was an awful song choice from Simon. I wonder how Reggie n' Bollie's version would've fared, had they won.
Fully expecting to see a similar albums chart to last week (bar the Christmas albums dropping a bit). Singles-wise, a Bieber top 2 with "What Do You Mean?" somewhere in the T5 - hard to believe that this'll be it's 18th week in the T10 and isn't looking to be falling out fast; who would've thought it!
Posted by: sammy01 27th December 2015, 01:30 PM
Fully expecting to see a similar albums chart to last week (bar the Christmas albums dropping a bit). Singles-wise, a Bieber top 2 with "What Do You Mean?" somewhere in the T5 - hard to believe that this'll be it's 18th week in the T10 and isn't looking to be falling out fast; who would've thought it!
Sadly I think most of us saw this coming, the chart stagnating due to streaming.
Posted by: Bjork 27th December 2015, 01:34 PM
guess Louisa is so low cos shops were closed and people couldn't buy the CD
Posted by: scratchy23 27th December 2015, 01:36 PM
Not to mention the fact that Christmas songs will have dominated everything over Xmas Day cos of streaming. By the end of the week I think she'll still comfortably be Top 40.
Posted by: FrostytheBeaver 27th December 2015, 04:25 PM
Wow for an X Factor winner's single to be looking to miss top 40 on its third week or fourth week is unprecedented! No wonder ITV has bought the rights to The Voice - lining up X Factor's replacement which after this week will be seen as a lame duck.
Posted by: Martyn 27th December 2015, 04:34 PM
The BBC will make no effort with The Voice 2016, if anything knowing that ITV has it from 2017 they will be trying to sabotage it.
Posted by: FrostytheBeaver 27th December 2015, 04:55 PM
I didn't think about that 
They might try to make it seem extra boring to turn.mlre people off
This might be the end of TV singing shows for now!
Posted by: slowdown73 27th December 2015, 09:17 PM
NHS choir has fallen out of top 10 on ITunes so big drop from number one likely this week.
Posted by: GTH 27th December 2015, 09:39 PM
Doesn't help the CD is £3.99. Very expensive for a CD single, even if it is for charity.
A big problem is that the song simply is not very good. Poorest winners single choice so far.
Posted by: 777666jason 28th December 2015, 09:11 AM
Tbh i think the main selling point of the voice will have ost its appeal by the time it debuts on itv it self has already been in decline so far
This may have been answered but will there still be a full update today since its a bank holiday ? Couldnt find it in first post
Posted by: Doctor Blind 28th December 2015, 09:28 AM
No update on R1 today but here for the biggest fall from number 1 in UK chart history! *.*
Posted by: Hayzayy 28th December 2015, 09:30 AM
This may have been answered but will there still be a full update today since its a bank holiday ? Couldnt find it in first post
I think there is still life in The Voice. In France it's on the biggest TV channel and in 2015 the two biggest selling albums of the year are by two contestants from the show. The show has been on for 4 or 5 years and it's still having huge figures. I'm sure the ITV impact will make it bigger than it is on the BBC.
Posted by: vidcapper 28th December 2015, 09:37 AM
They might try to make it seem extra boring to turn.mlre people off
Surely that ship has long since sailed...
Posted by: Bjork 28th December 2015, 10:25 AM
also, in the US the Voice is still big, huge audiences, contestants going to #1 on itunes... although I'm not sure if they've made a big star yet...
Posted by: chartdj 28th December 2015, 10:29 AM
is the OCC posting an update?
Posted by: Mart!n 28th December 2015, 10:47 AM
I'm assuming so, since the top 100 charts were posted on Christmas Day in the evening.
Posted by: girl_from_oz 28th December 2015, 12:44 PM
Melanie Martinez was on The Voice in the US, she's doing pretty well, her album even made top 40 here in the UK
Posted by: Mateja 28th December 2015, 01:04 PM
They haven't. Biggest success is one platinum single by season 3 winner Cassadee Pope. Most of their winners don't even get to release an album because they are not marketable and Republic Records couldn't care less. They don't have a SYCO behind them.
The Voice is just a game show for 4 celebrity coaches and the contestants are their pawns. The blind auditions are the most interesting and they try to finish the live shows as soon as possible which results in the viewers not connecting with the contestants.
Posted by: buzz_person 28th December 2015, 01:45 PM
The Voice still gets huge ratings for NBC with the blind auditions but quickly fades off as soon as battles and lives begin. As for contestants going #1 on iTunes, most are only there for a couple of hours after the live show and that's about it. This is primarily because the contestants gets their votes multiplied by 10, should the song they perform (studio version) reaches iTunes Top 10 within the voting time-frame.
Posted by: Luciano 28th December 2015, 01:47 PM
I agree... The Voice is actually the only singing competition show I've seen that is more about the judges than the contestants, and the fact that the show hasn't been able to produce a single profitable artist out of it is proof enough, imo.
Posted by: chartdj 28th December 2015, 02:05 PM
The Voice is just a game show for 4 celebrity coaches and the contestants are their pawns. The blind auditions are the most interesting and they try to finish the live shows as soon as possible which results in the viewers not connecting with the contestants.
isn't an album in the contract for the winner?
Posted by: Mateja 28th December 2015, 02:18 PM
I don't know what their contract is like. But Republic Records gets all non-country winners. The first two winners flopped, #5 had "a quiet release" (in her own words), #6 didn't release anything and briefly appeared in theater production. #8 released an EP (he is a folk singer/songwriter) and now #9 seems most fitting for a career in christian contemporary music, which sells very little.
Country winners go to Big Machine Label Group. Big Machine released debut albums of two female winners (#3 and #4) and had a little bit of success with Cassadee. The third country winner, (#7, guy over 30 years old) asked to be let go from his contract before he released anything.
Posted by: Hadji 28th December 2015, 03:32 PM
I hope physicals can give Louisa another week in the top 40
Posted by: slowdown73 28th December 2015, 03:57 PM
The UK version of the Voice is dreadful. I am utterly surprised it has managed to keep going. None of the winners have been successful and I couldn't even remember who has won from each of the series.
Posted by: mowino 28th December 2015, 04:11 PM
Hopefully Bieber can claim #1, 2 & 3 this week
Posted by: Bjork 28th December 2015, 05:33 PM
no chart update on r1 it seems 
Posted by: Mart!n 28th December 2015, 07:29 PM
I'm surprised OCC haven't updated considering they posted the top 100 charts on Friday unless I'm missing something, probably waiting until the morning now.
Oh well... makes the chart more interesting on Friday if nothing is revealed all week 
Before anyone asks, we don't have other chart info
Posted by: BellyClarkson 28th December 2015, 07:30 PM
Bieber won't get #1, #2 & #3
Adele has #3 confirmed I think
he will be 1,2 & 4 though
We need new music
Posted by: Mart!n 28th December 2015, 07:32 PM
Welcome to the forum and the madness that goes with it, don't worry the lions don't bite unless you feed them
Posted by: 777666jason 28th December 2015, 08:03 PM
Oh well... makes the chart more interesting on Friday if nothing is revealed all week
Before anyone asks, we don't have other chart info
Yes but Friday was a chart day and the Christmas one at that today is just an update though maybe that has something to do with it ?
Posted by: SKOB 28th December 2015, 08:08 PM
Adele has #3 confirmed I think
he will be 1,2 & 4 though
We need new music
Can you see from that crystal ball which team will win the Premier League in May?
Posted by: Mart!n 28th December 2015, 08:33 PM
Or this week's winning lottery numbers
Posted by: d22ghj 28th December 2015, 11:00 PM
Wow Louisa surely won't be top40 given she will probably be out of the iTunes top100 in the next day.
Posted by: sammy01 28th December 2015, 11:15 PM
I think her, Simon and Syco would just like the song gone as quickly as possible now any way.
Posted by: Envoirment 29th December 2015, 12:48 AM
Isn't it because it was a bank holiday monday? So they didn't update because of that?
Posted by: Hadji 29th December 2015, 01:07 AM
Simon is to blame for Louisa only spending two weeks in the top 40
Posted by: Jason 29th December 2015, 01:39 AM
Don't worry for him, I have no doubt he is still millionaire.
Posted by: Mace Spindu 29th December 2015, 01:53 AM
Adele has #3 confirmed I think
he will be 1,2 & 4 though
We need new music
Crying at your username and avatar
welcome to the forum 
I think Adele will be #3 but I think it'll be closer than you are suggesting
Posted by: 777666jason 29th December 2015, 02:50 PM
Yes i asked that on firsr page and im gurssing what i put is why there was an update on friday and not yesterday
Posted by: JosephCarey 29th December 2015, 02:51 PM
Yesterday was indeed a bank holiday, hence no update.
Posted by: chartdj 29th December 2015, 05:38 PM
When the OCC don't update their website on a monday, don't they do on the following days?
Posted by: Joe. 29th December 2015, 07:58 PM
They did it on a Tuesday last time (with a Monday update), but it's up to them I guess, as they haven't today.
Posted by: Rafael x 29th December 2015, 08:12 PM
History is at #4 on iTunes and #10 on Spotify.... any chance for a new peak, maybe #6?
Posted by: Hadji 30th December 2015, 01:59 AM
I only wanted Louisa to go as far as missing Xmas #1, not just spending only two weeks in the top 40
Posted by: Ellsmere 30th December 2015, 08:08 AM
Bieber for 1,2 and 3 i'm hoping, i like The streaming Effect on The chart.... It means number 1 singles are less frequent and in turn harder to acheive thus making them more prestigious.
Not just any old shit release for The likes of example or guetta hitting Top spot.
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 09:00 AM
^^Exactly right, good point about no1s. It was ridiculous a few summers back when preorders meant there was a new no1 almost every week.
Posted by: Ellsmere 30th December 2015, 09:46 AM
Yeah exactly, i think 2011 was the worst year for it.
Posted by: Dasher 30th December 2015, 10:21 AM
2000 says hello
Posted by: Mart!n 30th December 2015, 10:46 AM
The iTunes top 10 can't be that far off from the official chart, nothing has been updated all week on OCC they are probably on holiday till next week, apart from updating the official chart on Friday.
Posted by: 777666jason 30th December 2015, 10:52 AM
That was the case before streaming heck one wee justin beiber was number 7 on sae but number 1 overall so the actual chart is likely to be very different
Posted by: slowdown73 30th December 2015, 12:27 PM
The problem is the charts appear to have gone the other way now and become very stagmated and boring. I certainly don't want to see Bieber at number one every week. He's not very good even. We badly need some new releases to liven things up!!
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 12:41 PM
Yeh but it will change as new artists and releases start their campaigns.
Posted by: Doboggan 30th December 2015, 12:55 PM
The field is wide open at the moment I'm surprised someone isn't taking advantage of it with some new material.
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 12:58 PM
Someone will release something on friday, they always do on the first of the year Kanye West released Only One last yr!
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 01:08 PM
Update on the (lack of) midweek update: There still seems to be no-one in the Music Week offices so the likelihood of an update today is remote. That said, a random news story was posted yesterday so perhaps someone is there but they have very little to do!
Posted by: Dan_ 30th December 2015, 01:08 PM
Maybe ANTI will finally get released next week
(lol)
Posted by: Mart!n 30th December 2015, 01:28 PM
MW will have to get the chart from OCC first, its looking more unlikely there won't be anything from MW this evening they are not going to hang around till the evening if someone is flying solo
, as OCC haven't even updated the Monday chart update
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 02:13 PM
So fridays chart will be interesting
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 03:24 PM
, as OCC haven't even updated the Monday chart updatePosted by: Euphorique 30th December 2015, 03:39 PM
Not just any old shit release for The likes of example or guetta hitting Top spot.
Give me a #1 every week with plenty of chart entries over this borefest of a chart
Especially with such a lame song at the top.The UK is no longer the most interesting chart in the world, and hasn't been for many years now.
Posted by: chartdj 30th December 2015, 03:42 PM
not for the top2 spots though, which we know anyway even without midweeks.
interesting to see if the choir is outside top 20
Posted by: Hilderic 30th December 2015, 03:46 PM
Especially with such a lame song at the top.The UK is no longer the most interesting chart in the world, and hasn't been for many years now.
Which one is the most interesting?
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 04:14 PM
Will the 11th January edition have all the charts from over xmas?
Off topic a bit - does anyone know if the chart on friday is on at the usuak time?
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 04:17 PM
interesting to see if the choir is outside top 20
It will be lucky to be top 40 the way its dropping on itunes now
Posted by: Christmaseve201 30th December 2015, 04:22 PM
Presumably one which has a new no1 every week (many of whom arent actually overly popular when their chart runs comes to an end) and jump in at the top of the chart due to built up pre orders gained as their airplay increased.
Not really all that exciting really whereas yes now the current chart is quite boring but in a few weeks there will be new releases on a friday which will move up the chart or be big artists which will jump into the top 10 due to demand for new material.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 30th December 2015, 04:37 PM
Yes, it is listed as 4.00-5.45 in the Radio Times for 1st January.
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 04:39 PM
Off topic a bit - does anyone know if the chart on friday is on at the usuak time?
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 04:42 PM
I notice that the Music Week twitter account has been a little more active than the website over the past couple of days so about an hour ago I sent a tweet asking if there will be a midweek update this afternoon. I haven't had a reply though...
Posted by: gooddelta 30th December 2015, 04:56 PM
My initial estimate for NHS Choir was 1-70 iirc, won't be far off probably!
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 05:00 PM
Especially with such a lame song at the top.The UK is no longer the most interesting chart in the world, and hasn't been for many years now.
But the UK chart is quite dull these days. It's a pity because after many years of the chart having too much of a fast turnover, the chart became quite interesting between 2006 and 2009 before the CD singles market completely collapsed. Streaming has just added to the lack of turnover. That said, in recent weeks there has been an increase in the speed of the chart. Take out the Christmas hits and there are quite a few records in the upper reaches of the chart that have been on the chart for two months or less.
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 05:07 PM
http://www.ariacharts.com.au/chart/singles
http://www.ariacharts.com.au/chart/download/singles (PDF version)
I quite like that the chart compiler ARIA allow the chart to be downloaded as a PDF. I would like the OCC to do the same with the UK charts as it means that the charts could be saved to a computer. The OCC chart pages are something of a mess as things stand and trying to print the charts produces a messy looking document.
Posted by: Ethan 30th December 2015, 06:08 PM
well considering that the nhs choir have already slumped out of the top100 on iTunes and haven't graced the spotify top200 ~ surely they're going to struggle to remain in the combined top100 this week~
in any case such a comical fall from the top spot should precipitate the tightening of the anti-hyping chart rules to include orchestrated facebook campaigns which distort the chart~
Posted by: Dircadirca 30th December 2015, 06:10 PM
in any case such a comical fall from the top spot should precipitate the tightening of the anti-hyping chart rules to include orchestrated facebook campaigns which distort the chart~
Not that it helps a lot, but the NHS Choir are currently #123 on Spotify, so they should at least last in the top 100.
Posted by: gooddelta 30th December 2015, 06:14 PM
http://www.ariacharts.com.au/chart/singles
http://www.ariacharts.com.au/chart/download/singles (PDF version)
I quite like that the chart compiler ARIA allow the chart to be downloaded as a PDF. I would like the OCC to do the same with the UK charts as it means that the charts could be saved to a computer. The OCC chart pages are something of a mess as things stand and trying to print the charts produces a messy looking document.
Yeah the Aussie chart is quite cool, they seem to be open to buying and listening to new music at a quicker rate than we do in the UK these days. It's not a rapid turnover but enough big climbers and new entries most weeks to look interesting.
Most charts around the world have been ground to a halt by streaming, the most extreme example being in Sweden which is boring as hell these days but used to be the most volatile chart in the world, due to low sales. The days when a shopping mall signing could cause a No.1 re-entry were great
Posted by: Bré 30th December 2015, 06:17 PM
NHS Choir will have shifted enough on Friday to stay comfortably top 100 and possibly even still top 40 I think. (The fact 'even' appears in that sentence speaks volumes about how disastrous this drop is going to be though )
Posted by: Fgiboy2511 30th December 2015, 08:00 PM
)Deservedly so, it is the most apalling record to hit number one since "Wake Me Up" last year and before that The Justice Collective. These horrible cover versions are far worse than any X Factor winning single ever released. Remember when charity records used to be decent? Perfect Day & S Club?
It is quite fascinating to see how it will drop and Louisa Johnson as well. You can never say the UK charts are boring though.
Posted by: Jason 30th December 2015, 08:26 PM
)I'd bet all my money that NHS Choir won't be top 40 tomorrow.
Posted by: Joe. 30th December 2015, 08:28 PM
Yeah I really can't see them being top 40 either.
Posted by: liamk97 30th December 2015, 08:58 PM
The usual cut off for the Top 40 as of late has been 13-14k and there's no question it'll be higher this week, not sure how much but definitely higher, so I really can't see NHS Choir staying Top 40. Possibly so on the sales chart, but not by much.
Posted by: Robbie 30th December 2015, 09:34 PM
Further update on the midweek update: Music Week still haven't published a midweek update and there's been one tweet made from their twitter account since I sent them a tweet a few hours ago (to which I received no reply) so I think it's safe to say that nothing is going to appear on their website. It looks like we'll have to wait until Friday afternoon for the weekly chart show before we find out anything.
Posted by: mdh 30th December 2015, 11:13 PM
And I thought Louisa was falling quickly 
Posted by: JimmyTinsel 30th December 2015, 11:15 PM
in any case such a comical fall from the top spot should precipitate the tightening of the anti-hyping chart rules to include orchestrated facebook campaigns which distort the chart~
You really think they will take action to stop charity singles making the Xmas no.1?
Good luck with that campaign!
Really don't understand why anyone is surprised by the NHS choir single performance this week, it's bleedin obvious.
The standout, even historic one in the last decade, is the XFactor winners song performance.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 30th December 2015, 11:24 PM
If it's so 'bleeding obvious' why is it completely unprecedented? No single has fallen out of the Top 20 before from #1. I think for that reason it is somewhat noteworthy.
Even Rage Against the Machine had enough support to make it to #2 in week 2.
Posted by: Fgiboy2511 30th December 2015, 11:30 PM
Even Rage Against the Machine had enough support to make it to #2 in week 2.
Exactly Doctor Blind
Posted by: FrostytheBeaver 31st December 2015, 03:50 AM
Yup it is very boring...
Posted by: Zárate 31st December 2015, 10:09 AM
Even Rage Against the Machine had enough support to make it to #2 in week 2.
They were even top-40 on week 3!
Posted by: JimmyTinsel 31st December 2015, 10:15 AM
Even Rage Against the Machine had enough support to make it to #2 in week 2.
RATM isnt a choir song the week after Xmas, right?
Give some stats on Xmas #1 campaign choir songs the week after Xmas and you may have a point
Posted by: UltraChristmas 31st December 2015, 10:19 AM
Give some stats on Xmas #1 campaign choir songs the week after Xmas and you may have a point
Military Wives {1}-4-14-24-34
Justive Collective {1}-5-21
Both started at #1 and both choirs which we're still top 5 in their 2nd week and both practically top 20 in their 3rd week!
So the NHS Choir fall is unprecedented, especially considering no song has fallen out of the top 20 from #1!
Posted by: JimmyTinsel 31st December 2015, 10:21 AM
Justive Collective {1}-5-21
Both started at #1 and both choirs which we're still top 5 in their 2nd week and both practically top 20 in their 3rd week!
So the NHS Choir fall is unprecedented, especially considering no song has fallen out of the top 20 from #1!
By unprecedented you mean its the worst of 3 songs
oh and the Justice Collective wasnt a choir.. so lets make that worst of 2 :0)
Posted by: Mart!n 31st December 2015, 11:06 AM
I like to know where the next #1 track is going to come from, hardly any new releases for the month of January, could be a climber, love to see Grace getting there, maybe Snakehips could climb very slowly to the top 'All My Friends' is not that bad, otherwise it be Justin Bieber for the next month or so 
Needs someone like Rihanna to drop a new release.
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 11:27 AM
Needs someone like Rihanna to drop a new release.If JB is still no1 with LY on the 31/1/16 I will eat my hat and fair play if it is but theres always new tracks that are released once the new year kicks in so id say something will come along some friday or something will rise. Most campaigns for new albums released up until March will start from Jan 1st not to mention one of the sound of top 5 will release a song or a song is currently out now which will gain airplay and popularity. Also Lush Life is released on the 15/1/16 and has a preorder with the stream on spotify in the top 50 already so it should do well from early signs, although im not sure if the preorder is for a OAOS style release or if its already been premiered?
On the NHS Choir drop the previous songs did have physical singles which do help severe the song slightly esp if the christmas chart falls on the 16/12 or something so they have 2 weeks top 5 gauranteed plus the final week of the year people are still in the shops for the sales so people willpick up the cd steadying its heavy fall.
Posted by: chartdj 31st December 2015, 11:28 AM
daily updates from the OCC during xmas week to let everyone know the choir was a contender, not even a midweek update this week.
could be a coincidence, but you might suspect a support to the choir
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 11:30 AM
I would say the OCC team are off all this week but work up until the xmas chart is announced, as they always act like the christmas chart has the importance of the pre 2003 era these days with interviews from the contenders on their sites (even with non contenders like The Couteeners, Scouting for Girls etc).
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 11:38 AM
Needs someone like Rihanna to drop a new release.There probably will be releases in January, just that they don't get pre-announced. For example Birdy has a single out tomorrow - we only know about it because her website posted the story early by mistake.
But with OAOS most of them will bomb
Posted by: Suedehead2 31st December 2015, 11:41 AM
Exactly. When granting (ore refusing) holiday requests, the OCC are bound to want to make sure they have staff in the lead-up to the Christmas chart. They are less likely to insist on the same staffing levels for this week. Most of the holiday requests will have been submitted long before the choir campaign started, so any suggestions of a conspiracy are either nonsense or a Daily Mail story. Not that there is much difference between nonsense and a Daily Mail story.
Posted by: slowdown73 31st December 2015, 12:06 PM
When is the best selling singles of the year chart announced on radio one?
Posted by: Dan_ 31st December 2015, 12:24 PM
Never.
they're doing some stupid Number Ones show tomorrow instead
Posted by: slowdown73 31st December 2015, 12:27 PM
they're doing some stupid Number Ones show tomorrow instead
Really? They usually announce it on New Year's Eve. Can't believe they aren't doing anything this year.
Posted by: mr_pmt 31st December 2015, 12:38 PM
Needs someone like Rihanna to drop a new release.Zara Larsson perhaps?
Posted by: Dan_ 31st December 2015, 12:44 PM
I think Love Yourself will be #1 for the whole of January actually unless some big release happens (which probably won't, because it's January)
Posted by: Mart!n 31st December 2015, 12:53 PM
That was my first initial reaction I noted it, in one of my previous chart topics, I love to see Lush Love getting there, beautiful track. Its just January new releases have always been pretty slim for the past few years.
Posted by: ___∆___ 31st December 2015, 12:56 PM
Think this will happen too - Say hello to some 65k weeks for the #1
I never understand why some acts don't release in this period and snatch an easy #1/big hit based on the lack of anything being released!
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 01:01 PM
But with OAOS most of them will bomb
I bit like the current songs in the top 5 like Hello & Sorry
Posted by: JosephCarey 31st December 2015, 01:13 PM
Exactly
Every song in the iTunes top 10 bar Sigala had an OA/OS style release. It all depends on radio playlisting but then it did with held back pre-orders anyway.
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 01:15 PM
Yeh held back releases can obv be sucesses too but the current top 10 is full of OAOS releases, also some less huge artists than Adele like MNEK & Zara have had huge Q4 hits which have gained in popularity!
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 02:19 PM
Of course the top 10 is full of OAOS releases - it would have to be, since almost everything is now. It definitely works for big artists. We're now seeing some examples of new artists also doing well (in spite of it, not because of it IMHO), but I'm still worried about the number of casualties. I'm not sure that the pros outweigh the cons. I think overall more sales are being lost by records not taking off as they would have done with a build-up, than sales that were being lost previously by holding records back. I believe the dramatic fall in downloads is partly down to OAOS as much as streaming's increased popularity.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2015, 02:22 PM
If that statement is true how come sales were increasing hugely in 2011 when OAOS was first adopted (then sabotaged by greedy record labels and UK radio), and sales dropped off starting in August 2013 and haven't recovered since?
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 02:24 PM
OAOS only lasted a few months in 2011 and was dropped because it wasn't working!
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2015, 02:27 PM
That doesn't address my point that it didn't affect sales.
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 02:31 PM
They didn't stick with it long enough for it to affect sales.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2015, 02:34 PM
Or.. the use and adoption of OAOS has little or no noticeable effect on sales, yet you/others are using the general trend seen as a result of movement from digital to streaming services as an argument against an inherently sensible policy to releases that works everywhere else in the world, but due to the incompetent nature of record companies and an ignorant UK record industry (that was itself slow to adopt digital) that still acts as though it is 1997.
This is why I actual revel at the depressing state of sales - the UK industry has partly brought it on itself.
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 02:42 PM
OAOS advocates - do you believe the current Sigala's Sweet Lovin' would have sold more copies had it been released earlier? I don't. I think it'd would've at best bounced around the top 40 for a couple months, or at worst, debuted at #45, sinking without a trace within a few weeks and killing its chances of building any radio support. It would've be have made 4 weeks in the top 10.
Is Sigma's Coming Home going to end up selling more copies because it was released OAOS, or if they'd held it back a month would it have debuted in the top 5 and still be top 10 now?
Remember the whole point of OAOS was to increase sales, and whilst we can argue all day about whether it is has an effect on reducing them, there's no evidence that it's increasing them in most cases. So what's the point? Some records are doing fine with it, but are they actually winding up selling more copies in the long-run or not? If that's the point, then it's not working. I think labels are going to realise it's too much hard work to get records by non-established acts to smash this way, and we'll see some changes in strategy in 2016.
Posted by: sammy01 31st December 2015, 02:43 PM
This is why I actual revel at the depressing state of sales - the UK industry has partly brought it on itself.
I agree completely, holding back any song that the public has access to via streaming and hearing on radio will only surely lose sales for it.
Streaming will wipe out downloads in the next year or two anyway but the UK industry hasn't helped.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2015, 02:49 PM
Here's a good OAOS comparison - both debuted the same week, one OAOS and the other held back:
Cavlin Harris + Disciples “How Deep Is Your Love”
CR: 7-6-{2}-2-3-4-4-4-3-4-7-9-11-14-17-17-21-23-22-23-26-30-33* (23 weeks so far)
Sales: 771,000
John Newman “Come And Get It”
CR: {5}-14-21-27-36-52-45-60-68-75 (10 weeks)
Sales: ~200,000
Initially John Newman is happiest because he has beaten Calvin by 2 places on the chart, but oh.. the following week he has fallen out of the Top 10 and now Calvin is out-peaking him.
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 02:51 PM
This is why I actual revel at the depressing state of sales - the UK industry has partly brought it on itself.
I don't actually agree that it does work everywhere else in the world. The U.S. has of course always been different, and it can take months for records to build there. But in many major European territories it has also become more difficult for new or less-established acts to chart, than it was 10 years ago or so.
Yes, streaming is a huge part of the reason why download sales are decreasing. But without a build-up of demand, there's no big first week sales (with the obvious exceptions), and records aren't building up steam over a number of weeks as you might expect - they're just selling in far smaller quantities, for, if they're lucky, a slightly longer period than they would've done.
If OAOS isn't working as well as it should, then the blame has to lay more with the media being so reluctant to jump on new releases. I don't see why the record companies have brought it on itself. They want this to work.
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 02:54 PM
Cavlin Harris + Disciples “How Deep Is Your Love”
CR: 7-6-{2}-2-3-4-4-4-3-4-7-9-11-14-17-17-21-23-22-23-26-30-33* (23 weeks so far)
Sales: 771,000
John Newman “Come And Get It”
CR: {5}-14-21-27-36-52-45-60-68-75 (10 weeks)
Sales: ~200,000
Initially John Newman is happiest because he has beaten Calvin by 2 places on the chart, but oh.. the following week he has fallen out of the Top 10 and now Calvin is out-peaking him.
I agree that the Calvin Harris one has done amazingly well, but I don't agree that the John Newman one hasn't because it was held back. Do you think it'd have sold more had it been OAOS? Then why did the OAOS follow-up Tiring Game (which IMHO was actually a better record) peak at #106?
Posted by: Joe. 31st December 2015, 02:59 PM
Yeah the John Newman song wouldn't have done much / any better as On Air...it probably would have done even worse. Look at Tiring Game which actually was on air (and arguably better). Calvin just happened to smash it out of the park with one of his best songs ever.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2015, 02:59 PM
It's difficult to say because it is impossible to compare different release strategies for the same song, however I'd agree with your suggestion that it works better for bigger artists- but this is only because radio is much more likely to support them and initial fan base buys get them greater visibility. UK radio need to be a lot better at supporting a wider variety of songs, and they are getting better at that.
Posted by: gavindeejay 31st December 2015, 03:01 PM
I think songs should be on Spotify as soon as it's sent out to radio to build up it's streams, then release it after a month of building airplay, streams and pre orders.
Posted by: Joe. 31st December 2015, 03:02 PM
I think so too, or even 3 weeks.
Posted by: mr_pmt 31st December 2015, 03:05 PM
So how is it the record labels' fault, and how have they brought it on themselves if they want to apply the best strategy for any particular release? They are a business at the end of the day, and if they stand to lose out because of radio politics then they've got to utilise the best model they can.
Posted by: sammy01 31st December 2015, 03:05 PM
Yes, streaming is a huge part of the reason why download sales are decreasing. But without a build-up of demand, there's no big first week sales (with the obvious exceptions), and records aren't building up steam over a number of weeks as you might expect - they're just selling in far smaller quantities, for, if they're lucky, a slightly longer period than they would've done.
If OAOS isn't working as well as it should, then the blame has to lay more with the media being so reluctant to jump on new releases. I don't see why the record companies have brought it on itself. They want this to work.
I think you need to look at Little Mix, they obviously have a solid fanbase and a held back record of theirs can probably go top 10 but Love me like you has shown that a more spread out release instead of everything impacting first week and then falling fast has hugely helped the single and the album.
Love me like you is going to be their 2nd longest running single in the top 40 tomorrow and could well become their 2nd biggest single sales wise in the long run.
It has sustained their album in the top 10 too.
In my mind there is no doubt if you put a single up for pre-order for 5 weeks you will lose sales through people downloading illegally or streaming it that would just download it if it was on sale from the get go. Also something has to be at the top of the charts, so if everything is getting OA/OS the songs that eventually rise to the top will be getting the exposure and those that don't obviously didn't connect with the public.
Posted by: Dan_ 31st December 2015, 03:14 PM
well OA/OS obviously works for big name artists like Calvin Harris, Little Mix, One Direction, Justin Bieber etc. but some songs really do need the held-back treatment.
Sigala's 'Sweet Lovin' is doing really well now, it's top 10 on both iTunes and Spotify. This very likely wouldn't be the case if it was OA/OS.
Posted by: gooddelta 31st December 2015, 03:15 PM
We now live in an age where people have instant access to stream new music or view it on Youtube, so it's become increasingly ridiculous and essentially utterly pointless to have to wait a month or two months to buy it.
Record companies can drop OA/OS again if they like but the 'holding back' model is tired and redundant and isn't going to work anymore imo. The bigger streaming gets, and the smaller sales get, the less impact held back releases will have, because essentially within a few months time they'll need to overcome a 30k deficit just to get into the top ten on release week.
So in this transition period, yes it's undoubteldy helped John Newman, Philip George and Sigala into the top five (though I don't agree that Sweet Lovin' would have stalled in the top 40, I think it would have done at least as well as The Girl Is Mine with an OA/OS release) but that's exactly what this is - a transition period. Download sales are still quickly dying and streams are still increasing. I'd wager that MOS/AATW held back releases won't be able to garner enough support to debut in the top ten come a year from now, rendering the release model completely redundant. They may as well have a 45-35-24-30-35 run than a 12-28-52 run, because at the end of the day, when you're missing the top ten anyway - which they will - it will make little difference to anyone.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2015, 03:15 PM
Not just the record companies, massive radio conglomerates like Global Radio who refuse to playlist songs that go up for sale immediately.
In 2011 the FAA said As an industry, we're either in favour of a world where artists, labels and managers hold back releases to manipulate the charts, or we're in favour of a world where licensed download services are the first port of call for new music. Which is it?"
They made their choice and now they have to live with it IMO.
Posted by: sammy01 31st December 2015, 03:17 PM
Sigala's 'Sweet Lovin' is doing really well now, it's top 10 on both iTunes and Spotify. This very likely wouldn't be the case if it was OA/OS.
I would argue held back releases only give a 'false' chart placement and then never reflect the true popularity of the release. The Saturdays were a prime example of this, held back releases with multiple formats etc a week in the top 10 then out for most of their singles and then people wonder why they cant flog an album to save their life.
Posted by: FrostytheBeaver 31st December 2015, 03:19 PM
Needs someone like Rihanna to drop a new release.An R8 single would be lucky to inpakt top50 tbh
Posted by: gooddelta 31st December 2015, 03:21 PM
BTW, yes I can see that there are a lot more songs flopping these days, and each model has its flaws, particularly in the development of new artists, but it's really up to radio to change things now because switching release strategies back is going to have no impact at all come a year from now.
Sure, there's a good case to be made for songs picking up more support if they go top ten, but whatever the strategy, the top ten is going to be harder than ever to crack once streams come to make up 90% of the market. And though the chart is slower, and I wish people would move on more quickly rather than listening to the same five songs over and over again for months, that's something only radio and streaming platforms themselves can change by each refreshing their respective playlists far more quickly.
Posted by: Dan_ 31st December 2015, 03:21 PM
Well there's one easy way to find out very soon, DJ Fresh releases a new song in February which has been online since over a month ago.
I expect this to have a very short chart run and miss the top 10 to be honest (which would hopefully send the message that holding back releases for 3 MONTHS is not a good idea in 2016 (I'm not fully against holding back as I explained earlier but 3 months is ridiculous especially now)).
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 03:24 PM
Love me like you is going to be their 2nd longest running single in the top 40 tomorrow and could well become their 2nd biggest single sales wise in the long run.
It has sustained their album in the top 10 too.
In my mind there is no doubt if you put a single up for pre-order for 5 weeks you will lose sales through people downloading illegally or streaming it that would just download it if it was on sale from the get go. Also something has to be at the top of the charts, so if everything is getting OA/OS the songs that eventually rise to the top will be getting the exposure and those that don't obviously didn't connect with the public.
Love Me Like You has admittedly done a lot better than it looked like it was going to a few weeks in, but I don't think that it's done better than it would've done held back. It would have debuted in the top 3 and it wouldn't have fallen off the chart any quicker. The label must've felt for a long time that this single has been hard work to get going and if anything would be an example of why OAOS is more trouble than it's worth. And it still hasn't made the top 10, which looks bad regardless of how many it has sold.
Posted by: sammy01 31st December 2015, 03:32 PM
Looks bad for who? Bar a few people on here who follow the charts closely if you asked most people they would just assume Love me like you was top 10 as it has been a long running hit that they have streamed, brought or heard a lot on the radio over the last 3 months.
Given they have never had an album stay top 10 for more than 2 weeks before this album and now their album is a mainstay of the top 10 right now I'd say everything looks good for them and no one has been put off buying the album or single and actually the exact opposite. As I say it could easily end up being their 2nd biggest selling single and Get Weird will be their biggest selling album.
No one has been put off them the single or album by it not going top 10 and being OA/OS and both album and single sales speak for themselves as does their longevity.
Posted by: AcerBen 31st December 2015, 03:37 PM
Given they have never had an album stay top 10 for more than 2 weeks before this album and now their album is a mainstay of the top 10 right now I'd say everything looks good for them and no one has been put off buying the album or single and actually the exact opposite. As I say it could easily end up being their 2nd biggest selling single and Get Weird will be their biggest selling album.
No one has been put off them the single or album by it not going top 10 and being OA/OS and both album and single sales speak for themselves as does their longevity.
But is this because of or in spite of OAOS? Being held back didn't exactly damage Black Magic did it?
In any case, I don't think anyone is disputing that OAOS can work for big acts such as Little Mix. But I don't think it has actually benefited them either.
Posted by: sammy01 31st December 2015, 03:47 PM
In any case, I don't think anyone is disputing that OAOS can work for big acts such as Little Mix. But I don't think it has actually benefited them either.
It has helped by keeping the album selling, if Love me like you was held back and had shorter chart run it might be out of the charts now thus not keeping the album selling and keeping Little on the radio in the public's mind. It has also become a big selling single for them with a longer chart run than even their top 10 hits and #1 single wings.
Posted by: Joe. 31st December 2015, 03:56 PM
Part of the reason Love Me Like You stayed so stable was its promo. They performed it so many times and gave it a boost every time it seemed to be falling on iTunes, until commercial radio finally took notice and started playing it a lot more, which is why it's still so stable. Obviously they have the budget for that, lots of smaller artists won't have the same opportunities that Little Mix have.
Posted by: Bjork 31st December 2015, 04:17 PM
i think the case of John Newman allows for a good comparison of held back vs OAOS release for a relatively-known but not super famous artist, both being pre-album singles Come and Get it went top 5, Tiring Game didn't even make the top 40... John Newman doesn't have the fan base to go top 40 on OAOS
personally I'd go for something in the middle, premiere the song and put it on iTunes 2 weeks after debuting on air...
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 04:23 PM
People can pick and chose artists and songs to show why certain methods are working or not but you just have to look at each case specifically. In John Newmans case his relevancy and popularity declined alot since album one and that was the reason why he ultimately peaked low with an OAOS release which didnt reverberate with the public and the first single was given a hyped position due to being held back and ultimately fell quickly because it wasnt very popular hence the 5 week run in the top 40.
As for Sigala the follow up to a no1 single during the summer would have led it to do much better under OAOS imo but we will never know.
As DB says radio needs to go beyond the narrow capital style playlists and play fresher music and spotify has to change its playlists more often.
Posted by: Froot. 31st December 2015, 04:24 PM
I'm genuinely getting a case of deja vu looking at this last page.
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 04:25 PM
I think the initial performance of LMLY was poor considering it was LM and followed BM but i think it remained steady yes because of promo but also because the song was liked by the general public.
Posted by: Christmaseve201 31st December 2015, 04:25 PM
Ive onloy made 3 posts leave me out of it
Posted by: sammy01 31st December 2015, 04:32 PM
Exactly, if the general public like a song it will be a hit. 99 Souls are having a great hit and chart run with The girl is mine, they aren't a big name but the song is catching on and they will end up with a fantastic chart run and sales, top 10 or not.
1 week top 10's due to being held back and getting 5 weeks worth of fan sales into one week really don't help anyone. Didn't The Wanted have like 6 top 10's from their last album which pretty much bombed, as they were fan purchased, 1 week top 10 here and gone singles.
Posted by: -SCOTT- 31st December 2015, 05:29 PM
Interestingly one of them (We Own The Night) was released on air on sale.
Posted by: dandy* 31st December 2015, 07:27 PM
Only Buzzjack could manage an 8 page midweek thread about how there are no midweeks.
Posted by: niallyb 31st December 2015, 09:56 PM
ROFL yes ! And I fall for it every time ! Ooooh 8 pages ! Someone must know something. I better check it out ! D'oh
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