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 Who should be the new leader of the Labour Party? |
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 12th July 2015, 04:34 PM
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#501
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 DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 
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Ugh at endorsing cuts to child tax credits. That's the wrong choice of something to not oppose. I agree with Harriet that we can't just be the 'WHY CAN'T EVERYTHING BE AS IT WAS IN 2010' party but I genuinely wouldn't take tax credits as the one thing people would agree with cuts to - particularly as it's the one area where this Budget will bite in the long run. It's the equivalent of the Tories endorsing Brown scrapping the 10p tax rate.
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12th July 2015, 04:35 PM
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#502
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 12 2015, 05:20 PM)  Eh? The Tories have a majority of 6, and I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few Tories from marginal seats abstain. Labour could actively allow this to happen. No, they have a majority of 16. Majority isn't just how many more seats they have than the majority line. Tories - 331 (well notionally 330 but given Deputy Speakers don't vote either it makes more sense to include the Speaker with the Tories as the Speaker votes with the government in the event of a tie anyway.) Everyone else who takes seats - 315 Sinn Fein - 4 Worth recalling that within that 315 you also have 8 DUP and 2 Ulster Unionists, and Douglas Carswell who isn't amenable to UKIP central command and is arguably worth just considering as a right wing Independent for the next five years. Some won't necessarily be in favour within that 11 but they would all be open to being bought by the Tories. In practice it's probably most advisable to consider the make-up for the Commons for the foreseeable future as 330 to the Tories, 302 to the Opposition and 11 votes that are notionally Opposition but who the Government will buy if worst comes to worst - at 341 to 302, the line above which the government's in trouble in a full turnout vote is 19 government rebels. |
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12th July 2015, 04:42 PM
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#503
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 11 April 2006
Posts: 4,259 User: 457
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jul 12 2015, 05:35 PM) No, they have a majority of 16. Majority isn't just how many more seats they have than the majority line. Tories - 331 (well notionally 330 but given Deputy Speakers don't vote either it makes more sense to include the Speaker with the Tories as the Speaker votes with the government in the event of a tie anyway.) Everyone else who takes seats - 315 Sinn Fein - 4 Fine, but the point still stands - it only takes a few rebels (less than Tory rebels on the bedroom tax) with some foresight of how their voters will receive things to swing the outcome. Labour's position on things this time is not just posturing, it could make the decisive difference. This post has been edited by Danny: 12th July 2015, 04:44 PM |
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12th July 2015, 04:58 PM
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#504
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 12 2015, 05:42 PM) Fine, but the point still stands - it only takes a few rebels (less than Tory rebels on the bedroom tax) with some foresight of how their voters will receive things to swing the outcome. Labour's position on things this time is not just posturing, it could make the decisive difference. There were only two rebels in the Tories for the bedroom tax weren't there? I'd also say it's unlikely that the government whipping operation would be so poor as to allow the first Budget to fall on lack of Tory votes, particularly when it's gone down so well in the media. If something with as much media backlash as the bedroom tax could only muster two Tory rebels, I doubt this would get as many as ten. |
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12th July 2015, 09:22 PM
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#505
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 11 April 2006
Posts: 4,259 User: 457
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jul 12 2015, 05:58 PM) There were only two rebels in the Tories for the bedroom tax weren't there? I'd also say it's unlikely that the government whipping operation would be so poor as to allow the first Budget to fall on lack of Tory votes, particularly when it's gone down so well in the media. If something with as much media backlash as the bedroom tax could only muster two Tory rebels, I doubt this would get as many as ten. No - there were loads of abstentions from Tory MPs on the bedroom tax vote in 2013. |
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12th July 2015, 09:51 PM
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#506
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Is that actual abstention or just them not being present for the vote? Because if the Tories had thought there was any chance they'd lose that vote pretty much all of them would have been three-line whipped to be there - it's not really an accurate comparison to suggest it was winnable as a result of that (unless we want to get into childish parliamentary games like every opposition MP doing double feints on the way home with Tory MPs that they commute with and hiding in the toilets and cloakrooms just before the vote. Even then that only really works once so it's not exactly a strategy for defeating the government.)
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12th July 2015, 11:24 PM
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#507
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,672 User: 3,272
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Labour's decision (well, Harriet Harman's decision) not to oppose the changes to tax credits sums up the sorry state of British politics today. Labour are so scared of being labelled "the welfare party" that they won't even oppose cuts to benefits being paid to people in work. Instead, they will refuse to oppose changes that will leave the lowest paid £1,000 per year worse off.
I don't know what the few remaining Lib Dem MPs will do. If they also fail to oppose this extremely regressive proposal, what choice do English voters have? |
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