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 OPINION POLLS 2017, A whole new world |
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 22nd September 2015, 10:48 PM
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#61
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 BuzzJack Legend
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Sep 22 2015, 11:41 PM)  Not quite. There was an incumbency effect - people recognised in private polling they had good local Lib Dem MPs who they'd be ordinarily favourable to voting for under ordinary circumstances. It just wasn't strong enough to stand up to the overriding 'vote Tory this time for stability' message. It's telling that the seats the Lib Dems lost where they generally stood up best were in Scotland. Yes, so when it came to how people actually voted, the incumbency effect was minimal. One of the reasons why the Lib Dems came close to saving a few Scottish seats may have been that the SNP scare stories played differently in Scotland. I've heard a lot of Lib Dem activists say over the last few months that the anti-SNP message was one of the most effective messages of the campaign. In many Scottish seats, the same message was almost an invitation to vote Lib Dem to defeat the SNP. |
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23rd September 2015, 12:17 AM
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#62
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 I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Sep 22 2015, 11:15 PM) Second, I heard that large numbers of Labour members in Ed Balls' constituency spent a lot of the campaign in Sheffield Hallam. Therefore, their desperate (and unsuccessful) attempt to oust Nick Clegg may have cost them their Shadow Chancellor. I was campaigning in Hallam for two years and I never met anyone from Morley and Outwood. Most of Yorkshire were discouraged from coming because until very near polling day it was seen as unwinnable. We ended up coming far closer than in many target seats. |
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23rd September 2015, 01:50 PM
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#63
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DROTTNING!
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Morley and Outwood definitely would've spent a lot of time in target seats though - nobody thought there was a chance of us losing it until the night.
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23rd September 2015, 04:46 PM
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#64
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Sep 23 2015, 02:50 PM) Morley and Outwood definitely would've spent a lot of time in target seats though - nobody thought there was a chance of us losing it until the night. Yeah definitely, I'm guessing they were in Elmet & Rothwell and Dewsbury most of the time though. |
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23rd September 2015, 08:41 PM
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#65
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BuzzJack Legend
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Any Tory with a brain (insert your own oxymoron joke here) should be eternally grateful to Crispin Blunt. Of course, a certain type of Tory will never forgive him for leaving his wife for another man, but they should look beyond their prejudice.
Blunt was the first Tory MP openly to challenge Iain Duncan Smith's leadership. Ultimately, Duncan Smith was toppled with Michael Howard replacing him. While Howard was another unpopular leader with the public, he made some very important changes to the Tory party. Before that, both Labour and the Lib Dems had some very good strategists. Those strategists were very good at identifying where the party's efforts should be targeted. As a result, both parties took seats from the Tories which they would not have won on a uniform swing. Howard was the first Tory leader to try the same strategy. As a result, his party did better in 2005 than they would otherwise have done. By 2010, the Tories had perfected that strategy (with a lot of help from Michael Ashcroft's money). However, partly because of Ashcroft, they were able to take it a step further. My own constituency of Bournemouth (after boundary changes took me out of the Poole constituency) was, at one time, a Lib Dem target. However, Ashcroft poured a lot of money into the nearby seat of Mid Dorset ands North Poole. The Lib Dems won it (just) in 2001 before winning it easily in 2005. For a long time, that meant that it was regarded as reasonably safe for 2010. The Ashcroft money changed that. When it became evident that Mid Dorset and North Poole could be lost, Bournemouth W ceased to be a priority. In other words, the Ashcroft money didn't just affect the targets seats. Before 1997, the Lib Dems (and the Liberals) had been very good at taking seats by stealth. They were better at winning seats from several thousand votes behind than seats where they had come close at the previous election. In short, they exploited Tory complacency. In seats like Morley and Outwood, the Tories may have pulled off the asme trick themselves (although it should be remembered that Balls didn't win by much in 2010). |
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23rd September 2015, 09:02 PM
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#66
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Sep 23 2015, 09:41 PM) Any Tory with a brain (insert your own oxymoron joke here) should be eternally grateful to Crispin Blunt. Of course, a certain type of Tory will never forgive him for leaving his wife for another man, but they should look beyond their prejudice. Blunt was the first Tory MP openly to challenge Iain Duncan Smith's leadership. Ultimately, Duncan Smith was toppled with Michael Howard replacing him. While Howard was another unpopular leader with the public, he made some very important changes to the Tory party. Before that, both Labour and the Lib Dems had some very good strategists. Those strategists were very good at identifying where the party's efforts should be targeted. As a result, both parties took seats from the Tories which they would not have won on a uniform swing. Howard was the first Tory leader to try the same strategy. As a result, his party did better in 2005 than they would otherwise have done. By 2010, the Tories had perfected that strategy (with a lot of help from Michael Ashcroft's money). However, partly because of Ashcroft, they were able to take it a step further. My own constituency of Bournemouth (after boundary changes took me out of the Poole constituency) was, at one time, a Lib Dem target. However, Ashcroft poured a lot of money into the nearby seat of Mid Dorset ands North Poole. The Lib Dems won it (just) in 2001 before winning it easily in 2005. For a long time, that meant that it was regarded as reasonably safe for 2010. The Ashcroft money changed that. When it became evident that Mid Dorset and North Poole could be lost, Bournemouth W ceased to be a priority. In other words, the Ashcroft money didn't just affect the targets seats. Before 1997, the Lib Dems (and the Liberals) had been very good at taking seats by stealth. They were better at winning seats from several thousand votes behind than seats where they had come close at the previous election. In short, they exploited Tory complacency. In seats like Morley and Outwood, the Tories may have pulled off the asme trick themselves (although it should be remembered that Balls didn't win by much in 2010). On the last point, the complacency comes from the fact that we weren't expected to lose any non-Scottish seats except a couple of ultra-marginals. It wasn't helped by the fact that Lancashire and West Yorkshire were both loaded with target seats so resources had plenty of other places to go. |
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24th September 2015, 04:29 PM
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#67
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BuzzJack Gold Member
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Very interesting analysis of Labour's problems:
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/content/u...9-spreading.pdf Essentially, for all the Blairites witter on about the South, much of the south-east actually seems to be on the verge of trending Labour as it becomes more "Londonised" (more ethnic minorities, young people and uni graduates). On the other hand, it's the Midlands (outside of the big cities) which is going the wrong way for Labour, as their standing with the white working-class rapidly weakens. |
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24th September 2015, 04:49 PM
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#68
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DROTTNING!
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QUOTE(Danny @ Sep 24 2015, 05:29 PM) Very interesting analysis of Labour's problems: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/content/u...9-spreading.pdf Essentially, for all the Blairites witter on about the South, much of the south-east actually seems to be on the verge of trending Labour as it becomes more "Londonised" (more ethnic minorities, young people and uni graduates). On the other hand, it's the Midlands (outside of the big cities) which is going the wrong way for Labour, as their standing with the white working-class rapidly weakens. I mean, it's a bit of a stretch to say the South East is on the verge of trending Labour. What it means is that if 1997 happened today we'd probably win Broxbourne rather than it staying Tory (and vice versa if the Tories had 1983 tomorrow for some safe Midlands seats) - in practice, we aren't going to be winning those seats for a while. |
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24th September 2015, 04:55 PM
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#69
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BuzzJack Gold Member
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Sep 24 2015, 05:49 PM) I mean, it's a bit of a stretch to say the South East is on the verge of trending Labour. What it means is that if 1997 happened today we'd probably win Broxbourne rather than it staying Tory - in practice, we aren't going to be winning those seats for a while. By "trending", I mean that it's got comparitively better for Labour compared to the national average changes in their vote. In any case, it certainly gives the lie to this mantra that Labour's problems are with middle-class/"aspirational" voters. |
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24th September 2015, 05:42 PM
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#70
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DROTTNING!
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Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Danny @ Sep 24 2015, 05:55 PM) By "trending", I mean that it's got comparitively better for Labour compared to the national average changes in their vote. In any case, it certainly gives the lie to this mantra that Labour's problems are with middle-class/"aspirational" voters. I mean...we do still have huge problems with that type of voter, it's just there are more of the sort of person who votes Labour moving into those seats. Those seats are still by and large dominated by Mondeo Man/Worcester Woman/Aldi Mum/other invariably narrow middle class generalisation of your choice. |
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24th September 2015, 06:28 PM
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#71
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BuzzJack Gold Member
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Posts: 4,259 User: 457
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Sep 24 2015, 06:42 PM) I mean...we do still have huge problems with that type of voter, it's just there are more of the sort of person who votes Labour moving into those seats. Those seats are still by and large dominated by Mondeo Man/Worcester Woman/Aldi Mum/other invariably narrow middle class generalisation of your choice. But that report shows that some of the London/southern areas which have seen huge increases in house prices/incomes have trended Labour, whereas some of the Midlands areas which have most strongly trended Tory are lagging behind on house prices/incomes. Their problems are mostly cultural, not wealth-related. This post has been edited by Danny: 24th September 2015, 06:29 PM |
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26th September 2015, 02:45 PM
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#72
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
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The middle class voters - culturally at least - are still the ones in those Midlands seats. They might be going backwards, but they still don't feel like Labour is the party for them (witness how we've done so badly in Derbyshire). Those Labour-friendly voters moving into the SE aren't automatically middle class just because house prices are high around them. If they're young that often puts them in a worse position.
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17th October 2015, 11:32 AM
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#73
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DROTTNING!
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The government will lose the next proper vote on tax credit cuts before it even goes into action I think. Zac Goldsmith has come out in opposition, bringing the number of open Tory rebels to five - Goldsmith, Boris, Guto Bebb, Andrew Percy and David Davis. Eight's the magic number for the tipping point where the government loses its notional majority.
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20th October 2015, 11:28 PM
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#74
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
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Seumas fucking Milne appointed as Head of Communications and Strategy. He of 'America brought this on themselves!!!' two days after 9/11, '7/7/the murder of Lee Rigby were justified as part of a global war', 'the West is causing the war in Ukraine, not Putin', and 'the Soviet Union wasn't all bad and Joseph Stalin DIDN'T kill 20 million people it was actually just 13 million so stop trying to discredit him thanks' fame.
Sorry Danny, I know you have your theories that Corbyn doesn't plan on sticking around, but this is more than 'moving the centre of gravity' stuff, this is stuff that's actively not only damaging his cause, but the Labour Party as a whole with it - particularly as you'd assume the intent is for Milne to stay on whatever happens now he's retained staff (otherwise, what's the point of hiring him?). The Tories will literally be able to print Milne quotes verbatim with nothing else other than 'Labour's Head of Strategy and Communications' as billboards at the next election, and most people - including solid Labour voters - will be viscerally disgusted. |
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21st October 2015, 05:51 AM
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#75
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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As someone on Twitter pointed out, OWEN JONES WAS RIGHT THERE.
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21st October 2015, 09:55 AM
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#76
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,683 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Oct 17 2015, 12:32 PM) The government will lose the next proper vote on tax credit cuts before it even goes into action I think. Zac Goldsmith has come out in opposition, bringing the number of open Tory rebels to five - Goldsmith, Boris, Guto Bebb, Andrew Percy and David Davis. Eight's the magic number for the tipping point where the government loses its notional majority. The number of Tory MPs to vote against the government on this last night - zero. It's the same old story. A threatened Tory rebellion ends up as the dampest of damp squibs. |
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21st October 2015, 04:25 PM
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#77
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,865 User: 17,376
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the future's so bright i gotta wear shades. That'll be thd brightness of the nuclear inferno coming from somerset after a decade of right-wing selling-off uk property industry and the no-longer-working class. to add my 2pence worth corbyn is reminding me more of movie dr strangelove and the final scene of the movie - ironic given his nuclear stance, and the armageddon is just politically the labour party and any chance of getting the tories out.
Next general election is rumoured to be cancelled because there is literally no party worth voting for in england? ! |
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21st October 2015, 07:08 PM
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#78
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Oct 21 2015, 06:51 AM) As someone on Twitter pointed out, OWEN JONES WAS RIGHT THERE. I'm guessing that that intellectually dishonest leprechaun took a look at how much The Guardian and Random House were paying him for his pontifications and decided against taking a massive pay cut. |
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21st October 2015, 09:07 PM
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#79
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Oct 21 2015, 08:08 PM) I'm guessing that that intellectually dishonest leprechaun took a look at how much The Guardian and Random House were paying him for his pontifications and decided against taking a massive pay cut. I'd take him over Milne (who will not be cheap, and hasn't even left his job at the Guardian) any day of the week. |
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21st October 2015, 09:30 PM
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#80
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,683 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Oct 21 2015, 08:08 PM) I'm guessing that that intellectually dishonest leprechaun took a look at how much The Guardian and Random House were paying him for his pontifications and decided against taking a massive pay cut. I don't know how much Owen Jones is paid by the Guardian, but I do know that his salary at the Independent was a lot lower than you might expect. |
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