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BuzzJack Music Forum _ News and Politics _ Next Labour leader
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 08:42 PM
So who do you think Labour should go for next? Jess Philips is the first to say she'll stand.
John McDonnell has ruled himself out and says he won't be in the new leader's shadow cabinet either.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 08:44 PM
Voted Starmer and am certain it'll be him or Rayner. Don't think they should just go for a woman because they haven't had a female leader yet though.
Angela Rayner and RLB then for Shadow Chancellor and Home Secretary.
Posted by: Jester Dec 14 2019, 09:04 PM
Starmer is the viable candidate imo. I would be happy with Emily Thornberry however.
Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 14 2019, 09:30 PM
I don't really have a strong opinion here as I'm not that knowledgeable about most of these people but from what I've seen so far Starmer and Rayner seem like the most reasonable choices. Possibly leaning to Rayner because she represents the type of voters that Labour is going to need to win back to have any realistic chance of being back in contention to win elections (and finally having a female leader won't hurt x I'm not one to say they 'should' have a female leader just because, but I worry that if Starmer wins against a field that is predominantly female we'd see a lot of 'Labour is sexist!!1' smears).
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 10:12 PM
I don't think the next leader will ever be PM anyway as they'll lose in 2024. It'll be the one after with a better chance.
Posted by: Santa Klaus Dec 14 2019, 10:15 PM
Keir Starmer or Angela Rayner out of the current frontrunners.
I would like to see Jess Phillips as part of the shadow cabinet but I don’t think she would be right for leader.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 14 2019, 10:27 PM
As I've said in the other thread, the ideal candidate should be someone who is not intrinsically linked to the Corbyn project i.e didn't serve in his Shadow Cabinet or wasn't as prominent in it, represents a constituency in the North, preferably in a town rather than a university city (and definitely not in London), is able to build bridges to the more conservative-minded working class voters Labour lost in this year's election, and of course, should preferably be Catholic. I was surprised to learn that Rebecca Long-Bailey, one of the possible front-runners, matches at least two of those requirements (although not what I would deem the most important one).
I'd need to do a bit more research into Labour's candidates before I can say which one I would say would be a good replacement for Corbyn (it could end up being one that doesn't have any name recognition outside real politicos, I know Corbyn didn't prior to 2015), but given that the Corbyn machine has spent the last 4 years building up an infrastructure that makes it much easier for a Corbynista to become leader again (the rule changes now mean that a nomination need the support of just 10% of the Parliamentary Labour Party and 5% of constituency Labour Parties, which makes it both easier for a Corbynite to be elected by Labour MPs, and harder for more "centrist" MPs to get selected by a more Corbyn-minded membership), we're likely to see Corbynism sans Corbyn as the next leader - if it's Diane Abbott, it would not surprise me in the slightest.
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 14 2019, 10:32 PM
My personal choice would be someone like Dan Jarvis or Yvette Cooper, but would be equally happy with the current favourites of Kier Starmer and Angela Rayner.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 10:41 PM
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 14 2019, 10:32 PM)
My personal choice would be someone like Dan Jarvis or Yvette Cooper, but would be equally happy with the current favourites of Kier Starmer and Angela Rayner.
Can't see Dan standing this time as he's Sheffield Mayor as well as being Barnsley Central MP.
Posted by: Liаm Dec 14 2019, 10:48 PM
Angela Rayner 100%. She feels totally right for the direction we need to go in to have the best chance of rebounding from this election's crushing and disappointing defeat.
I love Jess Phillips but she's not right for leader, I'd take Keir Starmer though. Much as I love Diane Abbott we don't need her as leader, she gets enough shit as it is, let alone as a leader!
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 14 2019, 10:49 PM
QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 14 2019, 10:41 PM)
Can't see Dan standing this time as he's Sheffield Mayor as well as being Barnsley Central MP.
He only JUST survived and now has a majority of just 3500 odd after The Brexit Party ran him quite close. Glad he's still there though - you're right it is unlikely, but I wouldn't completely rule it out.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 10:50 PM
Whoever gets it really has to have a clear-out of the Shadow Cabinet. So Abbott out and off the front-bench to start with. Another of my cousins in Penistone told me today that that the reason he voted Tory in Penistone, despite thinking Boris is an idiot, was because of "Corbyn who is anti-semitic and that Abbott idiot" His words not mine.
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 14 2019, 10:53 PM
I'd like to see Chaos with Ed Miliband back in the Shadow Cabinet - he's still got a lot to offer IMO.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 10:56 PM
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 14 2019, 10:53 PM)
I'd like to see Chaos with Ed Miliband back in the Shadow Cabinet - he's still got a lot to offer IMO.
Rather David Miliband. Ed looks funny.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 14 2019, 11:01 PM
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 14 2019, 10:49 PM)
He only JUST survived and now has a majority of just 3500 odd after The Brexit Party ran him quite close. Glad he's still there though - you're right it is unlikely, but I wouldn't completely rule it out.
Would have loved it if the BP had got their only MP there.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 14 2019, 11:03 PM
A slight non-sequitur, but one of the good things (for me) about Jeremy Corbyn no longer being Labour leader is that I can finally enjoy "Seven Nation Army" again without having to hear that ruddy chant ever again. It has annoyed me for some time - the chant uses six syllables, whilst the main riff for "Seven Nation Army", quite famously, has 7.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 10:03 AM
McDonnell wants Rebecca Long-Bailey but definitely thinks it should be a female from the North.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 15 2019, 10:10 AM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 14 2019, 11:03 PM)
A slight non-sequitur, but one of the good things (for me) about Jeremy Corbyn no longer being Labour leader is that I can finally enjoy "Seven Nation Army" again without having to hear that ruddy chant ever again. It has annoyed me for some time - the chant uses six syllables, whilst the main riff for "Seven Nation Army", quite famously, has 7.
I know '7 Nation Army', but not the chant you refer to?
Posted by: Harve Dec 15 2019, 10:31 AM
I have absolutely no idea about who is most electable so I'll just go for my favourite of those likely to be candidates: Dawn Butler. Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy could be okay, maybe. Rebecca Long-Bailey would be a mistake.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 15 2019, 10:35 AM
QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 15 2019, 11:10 AM)
I know '7 Nation Army', but not the chant you refer to?
Oooooh, Je-re-my Cor-byn.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 15 2019, 10:56 AM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 14 2019, 11:27 PM)
As I've said in the other thread, the ideal candidate should be someone who is not intrinsically linked to the Corbyn project i.e didn't serve in his Shadow Cabinet or wasn't as prominent in it, represents a constituency in the North, preferably in a town rather than a university city (and definitely not in London), is able to build bridges to the more conservative-minded working class voters Labour lost in this year's election, and of course, should preferably be Catholic. I was surprised to learn that Rebecca Long-Bailey, one of the possible front-runners, matches at least two of those requirements (although not what I would deem the most important one).
One candidate that fitted the bill when I looked in to it was Conor McGinn. He represents a northern town (St. Helens), famous fell out with Jeremy Corbyn after Coybyn allegedly threatened to phone his father, and of course is Catholic. One potential drawback is that his father was a Sinn Fein councilor - given the scrutiny that Corbyn got for his links to the IRA, McGinn being leader would open many cans of worms.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 15 2019, 11:31 AM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 15 2019, 10:35 AM)
Oooooh, Je-re-my Cor-byn.
Never heard that
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 11:32 AM
QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 15 2019, 11:31 AM)
Never heard that
Me neither and I know the song well.
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 15 2019, 11:36 AM
If you thought that the cult of Corbyn was bad, the cult of Jess Phillips may be even worse!
Posted by: Holly and Izzy Dec 15 2019, 12:03 PM
I am currently rather ambivalent about the Labour leadership. I expect to form a stronger opinion on who I want when the frontrunners emerge, though either Starmer or Rayner seem okay at this point.
The one thing you can't say about Jess Phillips is that she wouldn't be boring or dull and we certainly need a charismatic candidate. At times she can really attract a rather violent type of hate though. It might be the difference needed.
Posted by: blacksquare Dec 15 2019, 12:09 PM
QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 15 2019, 12:03 PM)
I am currently rather ambivalent about the Labour leadership. I expect to form a stronger opinion on who I want when the frontrunners emerge, though either Starmer or Rayner seem okay at this point.
The one thing you can't say about Jess Phillips is that she wouldn't be boring or dull and we certainly need a charismatic candidate. At times she can really attract a rather violent type of hate though. It might be the difference needed.
The problem with Jess Phillips is she isn't going to be a unifying leader at all — there is a large percentage of the membership base that cannot stand her. I would fully expect there to be more in-fighting if she is chosen, although I find it unlikely that she will.
Rayner and Starmer are the correct choices for me.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 03:40 PM
QUOTE(blacksquare @ Dec 15 2019, 12:09 PM)
Rayner and Starmer are the correct choices for me.
Those two seem to be the ones that can maybe bring unity.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 04:11 PM
QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 15 2019, 12:03 PM)
The one thing you can't say about Jess Phillips is that she wouldn't be boring or dull and we certainly need a charismatic candidate. At times she can really attract a rather violent type of hate though. It might be the difference needed.
She was on TV this morning and is certainly not dull or boring as you say. She came across quite well.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 04:12 PM
Was reading about the female front-runners and Angela Rayner had a son at 16 and was a grand-mother at 37. Not that it matters but wonder if the Tories may get a few digs in.
Posted by: Santa Klaus Dec 15 2019, 04:24 PM
If they do, they have no understanding of the seats that helped them win.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 15 2019, 04:42 PM
QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 15 2019, 04:12 PM)
Was reading about the female front-runners and Angela Rayner had a son at 16 and was a grand-mother at 37. Not that it matters but wonder if the Tories may bet a few digs in.
At least she has been perfectly open about the number of children and grandchildren she has.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 04:47 PM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 15 2019, 04:42 PM)
At least she has been perfectly open about the number of children and grandchildren she has.
Yes she has and she's a huge supporter of the NHS as one of her younger sons had health problems and she says they were brilliant.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 15 2019, 08:42 PM
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 14 2019, 10:53 PM)
I'd like to see Chaos with Ed Miliband back in the Shadow Cabinet - he's still got a lot to offer IMO.
😂 I love that twitter post - retweeted it quite a lot over the past 4 years.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 15 2019, 08:47 PM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 15 2019, 10:56 AM)
One candidate that fitted the bill when I looked in to it was Conor McGinn. He represents a northern town (St. Helens), famous fell out with Jeremy Corbyn after Coybyn allegedly threatened to phone his father, and of course is Catholic. One potential drawback is that his father was a Sinn Fein councilor - given the scrutiny that Corbyn got for his links to the IRA, McGinn being leader would open many cans of worms.
Would be quality if it was Conor but I'd say making it in the shadow cabinet would be his aim this term! They'd probably accuse him of being on the army council if he got it.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 15 2019, 08:48 PM
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 15 2019, 11:36 AM)
If you thought that the cult of Corbyn was bad, the cult of Jess Phillips may be even worse!
Not a fan at all....
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 15 2019, 08:50 PM
QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 15 2019, 04:12 PM)
Was reading about the female front-runners and Angela Rayner had a son at 16 and was a grand-mother at 37. Not that it matters but wonder if the Tories may get a few digs in.
Why would they? Would look pretty terrible if they did!
Posted by: LexC Dec 15 2019, 09:27 PM
Has to be Angela Rayner for me. I think it has to be somebody who can bridge the gap between the two "wings" of the Party (although she's been loyal and been out to bat for the Corbyn leadership, she isn't really what you'd call an out and out Corbynite) and is somebody whose backstory of growing up in poverty and working sh
Keir Starmer would be my second choice as a solid, dependable, keep the ship steady and do the necessary work to purge the party of antisemitism and the cranks for five years Kinnock style choice before passing the torch on to a new generation in 2024. Of the other candidates, Emily Thornberry would be fabulous from a Gay Icon perspective but I think she gives off too much of a "Posh woman sneering" vibe, Jess Phillips I wouldn't trust not to do something lowkey racist or transphobic and end up being "cancelled" by the Twitterati plus I don't think she'd have support in the membership and Lisa Nandy is all "we have to listen to the concerns of small towns" and then no policy suggestions and just gets on my tits!
This is all assuming that there isn't another candidate waiting in the wings that nobody's heard of yet but is worth taking a chance on. Frankly after the last nine years I think it might be worth taking a punt on a relative unknown?
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Dec 15 2019, 09:52 PM
The more I think about it, the more I really want Angela Rayner to be the next leader. I love her so much!
Posted by: December Dong Dec 15 2019, 09:53 PM
QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Dec 15 2019, 09:52 PM)
The more I think about it, the more I really want Angela Rayner to be the next leader. I love her so much!
This!
Corbyn mlced the Overton Window. She can get Labour in and Bojo out.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 10:27 PM
QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Dec 15 2019, 09:52 PM)
The more I think about it, the more I really want Angela Rayner to be the next leader. I love her so much!
Steady on.
Think she has a partner.
Posted by: JingleBellJüpes Dec 15 2019, 11:34 PM
QUOTE(LexC @ Dec 15 2019, 09:27 PM)
Has to be Angela Rayner for me. I think it has to be somebody who can bridge the gap between the two "wings" of the Party (although she's been loyal and been out to bat for the Corbyn leadership, she isn't really what you'd call an out and out Corbynite) and is somebody whose backstory of growing up in poverty and working sh
Keir Starmer would be my second choice as a solid, dependable, keep the ship steady and do the necessary work to purge the party of antisemitism and the cranks for five years Kinnock style choice before passing the torch on to a new generation in 2024. Of the other candidates, Emily Thornberry would be fabulous from a Gay Icon perspective but I think she gives off too much of a "Posh woman sneering" vibe, Jess Phillips I wouldn't trust not to do something lowkey racist or transphobic and end up being "cancelled" by the Twitterati plus I don't think she'd have support in the membership and Lisa Nandy is all "we have to listen to the concerns of small towns" and then no policy suggestions and just gets on my tits!
This is all assuming that there isn't another candidate waiting in the wings that nobody's heard of yet but is worth taking a chance on. Frankly after the last nine years I think it might be worth taking a punt on a relative unknown?
Pretty much agree with all of this. I don't think Long-Bailey has the right look and a double-barrel name will work against her in a lot of quarters. Same could be said for (Sir) Keir Starmer I think. Rayner would be my pick purely for the fire she delivered on the debate as well as hitting a number of things I'd prefer in a leader - younger than Corbyn but not so young as to be taken for a ride, more life experience than the likes of a Jo Swinson, and Northern.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 15 2019, 11:50 PM
I just hope against hope that what I'm reading around the Net isn't true that Momentum want to tick the female and ethnic boxes at once and elect Abbott as leader. I actually wouldn't put it past them....
Still as caretaker leader for 5 years don't suppose it really matters much.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 15 2019, 11:57 PM
Angela Rayner is the one guys - it has to be - can't wait to see the new shadow cabinet going forward. Surely this cannot take as long as late March to sort out.
Not looking forward to seeing Jezza having to stand at PMQs after last week - the arrogance will be startling.
Posted by: Harve Dec 16 2019, 12:07 AM
My very, very premature hunch:
I think Labour are going to select Angela Rayner due to hearing constantly that 'Labour doesn't represent white working class voters anymore' line, only I have so little faith in the English electorate that I think we're going to find out the problem is rather social conservatism from all classes, and that snobbery against her background and education history will hurt Labour more than what working class credentials are supposed to bring. Sweden can elect a former welder as their PM because they have a functional society but I don't think Britain has the maturity to elect someone who left school pregnant aged 16.
This is a country where 50% of C2 voters were happy going for Boris Johnson this week. I'm not sure if a progressive working class woman is really what they're crying out for.
Posted by: December Dong Dec 16 2019, 12:14 AM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 15 2019, 11:57 PM)
Angela Rayner is the one guys - it has to be - can't wait to see the new shadow cabinet going forward. Surely this cannot take as long as late March to sort out.
Not looking forward to seeing Jezza having to stand at PMQs after last week - the arrogance will be startling.
100% this to everything.
We won't watch. We won't watch it, we won't see it, and that way Corbyn won't be humiliated and Bojo and co will be screaming arrogance in an echo chamber.
Posted by: JingleBellJüpes Dec 16 2019, 12:18 AM
On the other hand, actually having the child could be spun as family values rather than having an adoption or an abortion.
I do believe sexism is alive and well in British society though and a large reason why (especially older) people resisted both May and Swinson.
To be honest, as long as Labour can nail down a certain proportion of voters though, they can discard certain others instead of needing to try and be everything to everybody at once. I actually feel like that was one of the failings of the Corbyn campaign in retrospect. Rayner may well have left school and had a child at a young age - but so what? She's not the first person in the country to have done so. It's not like the Prime Minister - with multiple children out of wedlock, multiple marriages, allegations of cheating and a girlfriend the same age as one of his daughters - is some shining beacon of sexual conservatism in the other corner.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 16 2019, 12:26 AM
Rebecca Long-Bailey energes as early bookies favourite to succeed Corbyn after McDonnell endorsed her earlier today on Marr and Union leaders seem to back her too. Seems she's the chosen one folks.
Dianne Abbott has ruled herself out. So there is a God after all folks. 
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 16 2019, 12:29 AM
QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 16 2019, 12:07 AM)
My very, very premature hunch:
I think Labour are going to select Angela Rayner due to hearing constantly that 'Labour doesn't represent white working class voters anymore' line, only I have so little faith in the English electorate that I think we're going to find out the problem is rather social conservatism from all classes, and that snobbery against her background and education history will hurt Labour more than what working class credentials are supposed to bring. Sweden can elect a former welder as their PM because they have a functional society but I don't think Britain has the maturity to elect someone who left school pregnant aged 16.
This is a country where 50% of C2 voters were happy going for Boris Johnson this week. I'm not sure if a progressive working class woman is really what they're crying out for.
There's a few working class examples in history though is there not - Jim Callaghan, Ramsay McDonald come to mind?
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 16 2019, 05:57 AM
QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 15 2019, 09:53 PM)
This!
Corbyn mlced the Overton Window. She can get Labour in and Bojo out.
Usually I can work these things out, but 'mlced'?
QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 15 2019, 11:50 PM)
I just hope against hope that what I'm reading around the Net isn't true that Momentum want to tick the female and ethnic boxes at once and elect Abbott as leader. I actually wouldn't put it past them....
I thought it was Xmas coming up, not Apr 1st.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 16 2019, 07:25 AM
She's ruled herself out!
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 16 2019, 07:49 AM
QUOTE(JingleBellJüpes @ Dec 16 2019, 01:18 AM)
I do believe sexism is alive and well in British society though and a large reason why (especially older) people resisted both May and Swinson.
To be honest, as long as Labour can nail down a certain proportion of voters though, they can discard certain others instead of needing to try and be everything to everybody at once. I actually feel like that was one of the failings of the Corbyn campaign in retrospect. Rayner may well have left school and had a child at a young age - but so what? She's not the first person in the country to have done so. It's not like the Prime Minister - with multiple children out of wedlock, multiple marriages, allegations of cheating and a girlfriend the same age as one of his daughters - is some shining beacon of sexual conservatism in the other corner.
Margaret Thatcher won 3 elections during a period that one could argue was even more sexist, and Theresa May's Conservatives actually increased their vote in 2017. I've theorised before that people are happy to have a female leader as long as she's more conservative-leaning (which is why I believe the first female President of the US is going to be a Republican).
And "social conservatives" are under no illusions surrounding Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party as a whole. They do not consider any of the actions of the Tory Party over the last 9 years to show anything even remotely socially conservative, and I think you know exactly the reason why I dislike Boris Johnson.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 16 2019, 08:26 AM
I agree with your points but let's hope it doesn't turn out that way.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 16 2019, 08:50 AM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 16 2019, 07:49 AM)
Margaret Thatcher won 3 elections during a period that one could argue was even more sexist, and Theresa May's Conservatives actually increased their vote in 2017. I've theorised before that people are happy to have a female leader as long as she's more conservative-leaning (which is why I believe the first female President of the US is going to be a Republican).
And "social conservatives" are under no illusions surrounding Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party as a whole. They do not consider any of the actions of the Tory Party over the last 9 years to show anything even remotely socially conservative, and I think you know exactly the reason why I dislike Boris Johnson.
Both Thatcher (to a large extent) and May (to a lesser extent) downplayed their femininity. Swinson didn’t, and suffered as a result.
Incidentally., half of the Lib Dem MPs (five out of eleven) and more than half of Labour MPs are women.
Posted by: RabbitFurCoat Dec 17 2019, 06:41 PM
Looks like it'll be between Long Bailey and Nandy, with Starmer always in with a shout - I just don't think he'll be the type they'll go for.
Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 17 2019, 06:49 PM
Rayner apparently only running to be Long-Bailey's deputee leader, aw.
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Dec 17 2019, 07:27 PM
QUOTE(Michael Bubré @ Dec 17 2019, 06:49 PM)
Rayner apparently only running to be Long-Bailey's deputee leader, aw.
I'm still praying this doesn't end up being true, it'd be such a MAMMOTH mistake if it is. It should be the other way around!
Isn't Long-Bailey essentially Coybyn mk II anyway? (but with the charisma of a wooden spoon)
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 17 2019, 07:35 PM
The dream ticket, supposedly, is LB as leader and Rayner as her deputy.
Posted by: December Dong Dec 17 2019, 07:38 PM
It should really be the other way round 
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 17 2019, 07:39 PM
QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 17 2019, 07:38 PM)
It should really be the other way round
Yes I agree. Having seen Rayner on TV a few times she seems okay. RLB is a bit shouty.
Posted by: Santa Klaus Dec 17 2019, 07:41 PM
If they pick Long-Bailey, they don’t even deserve my vote.
Posted by: Rooney Dec 17 2019, 07:48 PM
If they pick Long-Bailey then just f*** the Labour Party in general. They have no idea what they are doing. I'm sure I'll get called a plonker in here, but there is zero chance Long-Bailey wins an election for Labour, you can quote me in 2024 if you like, as I know I'm right.
Just proves to me Momentum and the Unions are more interested in controlling the party rather than winning a power outside of their idealistic fantasy world.
Posted by: Harve Dec 17 2019, 07:58 PM
I mean, for me the electability matters less because this is just the leader they have for their time in the wilderness. The scale of the defeat means that the Tories are extremely likely to govern until 2029 (can I write YIKES in size 72 font) and that means a new leader in 2024-25 to launch a credible challenge when I'm in my 30s anyway.
They also have time for two leadership elections this cycle if they so wish.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 17 2019, 07:59 PM
I don't think Long-Bailey would be a good leader for a few reasons, mainly being too closely linked to the Corbyn project, but hey, it's not my party.
Although I have been debating whether to join the party in the hope of trying to influence its direction from the inside (and to be able to vote in the upcoming Leadership Contest), although being from Northern Ireland and being me, I doubt I would win as many people over as I would like.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 17 2019, 08:36 PM
If Angela's not running for leader they can't choose her can they. RLB will run on a sort of joint dream ticket, Sky are saying, with her as leader and Angela as her Deputy. Angela should have insisted it was the other way round.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 17 2019, 09:43 PM
QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 17 2019, 07:58 PM)
I mean, for me the electability matters less because this is just the leader they have for their time in the wilderness. The scale of the defeat means that the Tories are extremely likely to govern until 2029 (can I write YIKES in size 72 font) and that means a new leader in 2024-25 to launch a credible challenge when I'm in my 30s anyway.
They also have time for two leadership elections this cycle if they so wish.
I think that's unduly pessimistic. If Labour can win, say, 30 seats from the Tories at the next election with the Lib Dems picking up around another ten, that's the Tory majority gone.
Posted by: Botchia Dec 17 2019, 10:24 PM
There's no reason why Labour cannot win the next election with an electable leader like Keir, Jess etc.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 17 2019, 10:55 PM
QUOTE(Botchia @ Dec 17 2019, 10:24 PM)
There's no reason why Labour cannot win the next election with an electable leader like Keir, Jess etc.
Can't see anyone beating Boris. So after he's no longer PM.
Posted by: Liаm Dec 17 2019, 11:24 PM
Picking RLB would be an absolute disaster! Such a resounding election defeat should be a kick up the arse, knowing that there's a lot of change that needs to happen. As much as I love the idea of the society Corbyn wanted to build, clearly the public didn't and to try go and for that again is only going to lead to another crushing defeat.
The more I think about it, the more I come around to Jess. I think she'll be a strong Leader Of The Opposition, she's not for everyone and she won't be a Labour prime minister, but there's 5 years of the Tories yet for Labour to rebuild themselves and stepping away from Corbyn's side of Labour, I think Jess is the best woman to do that.
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 17 2019, 11:39 PM
I would LOVE to see Jess Phillips v Boris Johnson and PMQs, I think she would do very well.
It will be interesting to see what policies all the potential leaders will put forward, as even though this was a heavy defeat Liam, I would say the evidence points to the fact that a lot of the policies on say public ownership of rail and water ARE popular with the public and I for one would be disappointed if they were dropped now. The missed opportunity of the Green New Deal that wasn't explained well at all during the campaign needs to be part of the next leadership programme too IMO.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 17 2019, 11:49 PM
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 17 2019, 11:39 PM)
I would LOVE to see Jess Phillips v Boris Johnson and PMQs, I think she would do very well.
It will be interesting to see what policies all the potential leaders will put forward, as even though this was a heavy defeat Liam, I would say the evidence points to the fact that a lot of the policies on say public ownership of rail and water ARE popular with the public and I for one would be disappointed if they were dropped now. The missed opportunity of the Green New Deal that wasn't explained well at all during the campaign needs to be part of the next leadership programme too IMO.
You're right about PMQs but I'm not convinced that makes much difference.
If the performance of the leaders at PMQs is considered to be significant, Johnson will be very vulnerable - even if he keeps up his current record and only does about four sessions per year. That still leaves the question of how to beat him. Do you try to expose him at his bullying worst? If so, go for someone like Jess Phillips. Or do you expose his lack of attention to detail? That would favour someone like Keir Starmer, a trained barrister.
Posted by: JingleBellJüpes Dec 17 2019, 11:56 PM
Long Bailey looks like Swinson 2.0. Obviously the woman can't help how she looks naturally, but the way she styles herself looks very school prefect imo.
Posted by: Liаm Dec 17 2019, 11:58 PM
That's true about the policies Doctor Blind, Jess put it best when she said that trust needs to be rebuilt because a lot of the problems are because of the trust in the Labour party that's distengrated more and more, to the point where Boris is somehow seen as a better option. That's why we need a strong leader of the opposition like Jess who will speak up for whatever she believes in and keep fighting, but will resonate with the working class that seem to have abandoned Labour for this election. She would absolutely eviscerate Johnson and that's what needs to be done, it will be hugely satisfying to see and hopefully chip away until people see through the Tories next election (here's hoping).
Big worry is that she seems to be getting a lot of flack for being a TERF, but I actually can't find anything on that? I've also seen racist banded at her because she seems to have clashed with Diane Abbott, but I don't know if that's really just the "woke" Twitter brigade tearing her down because she's more to the centre than they'd like, I've not seen enough of things to judge that. Retract my support if she turns out to be either of those things, but the more I see of her personality, the more I think she's got the right fire about her for a leader of the opposition.
Posted by: Liаm Dec 18 2019, 12:01 AM
QUOTE(JingleBellJüpes @ Dec 17 2019, 11:56 PM)
Long Bailey looks like Swinson 2.0. Obviously the woman can't help how she looks naturally, but the way she styles herself looks very school prefect imo.
HAHAHA oh my god that's too accurate.
I know it's not Big Brother or who you'd want to go for a pint with, but I get that same "can't put my finger on it" feeling with her as I do with Jo Swinson.
Posted by: blacksquare Dec 18 2019, 12:10 AM
Well, he’s definitely going for it then.
Posted by: Rooney Dec 18 2019, 12:17 AM
The problem with Jess Phillips is that she is a hothead. Yes she will give the Tories as good as it gets but she's also a very decisive figure. The Labour Party probably needs a unifying figure right now to firstly bring everyone to sign off the same sheet. I feel she would probably create greater divides in the party rather than unifying it. Saying that she's probably a much better fit than Long-Bailey.
For me Starmer is that guy to lead the party at least in the short term. I don't see anything wrong with appointing someone who is the best fit for the role rather than trying to appoint someone purely because Labour needs a female leader.
Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 18 2019, 12:27 AM
The allegations of Jess Phillips being a TERF seem to come from this Twitter thread, of her supporting a group called Woman's Place UK who apparently have used transphobic dogwhistles, and Jess not directly answering when being questioned if she thinks trans women are women.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/931093574011191296
She's also been accused of 'laughing at men's suicide' (which I'm certain is a gross misinterpretation, and she has denied that, I'm sure she's just a very strong feminist but that's being twisted to her being against men, but this idea seems to have been pretty pervasive).
I don't think she's necessarily done anything wrong but I'd have a very bad feeling about her being the leader with the amount of shit that's been thrown at her already. Not that any of the other contenders are without their own qualities that the right-wing media is gonna right-wing media about but still.
I don't really know anything about RLB so I'll reserve any judgement on her... if she really is Corbyn 2.0 then I guess her being leader would at least give a more decisive answer of whether the public would accept Corbyn's policies if presented by a leader with less baggage? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 18 2019, 12:35 AM
QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Dec 17 2019, 07:27 PM)
I'm still praying this doesn't end up being true, it'd be such a MAMMOTH mistake if it is. It should be the other way around!
Isn't Long-Bailey essentially Coybyn mk II anyway? (but with the charisma of a wooden spoon)
The media are towing that line but truth is we don't know yet.
I'd imagine the membership will be happy to vote for her. Jennie said today she supports Starmer because it'd be patronising to have a northern woman because that's what labour believe it needs rather than the right candidate.
Surely Starmer is too associated with remain to be leader?
Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 18 2019, 12:39 AM
I would hope that by the time of the next election 'leavers vs. remainers' isn't going to be an issue people will care about any more, since we'll be out already. I'm sure there will be at least some presence of a 'rejoin' sentiment though.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 18 2019, 12:44 AM
Yeh but I've a feeling the trade negotiations could takes years no matter what Johnson said today. And it's an easy attack line for the tories especially for their new found friends in the north.
Posted by: Holly and Izzy Dec 18 2019, 01:29 AM
My preference is that the eventual leader does not have to be the one that represents the Labour party in 2024. If things look really bad for the party in two years, they should be ready to step aside, get a new polling boost and waste two years of Tory attack ads the efforts of the printed press.
With that in mind I can see the upsides to RLB. Then, Starmer is looking like a good uniter if he is cautioning about becoming too centrist - he could win the Lib Dems and Tory remainers that Corbyn couldn't with some balanced and sensible economics - if we're still fighting on the leave/remain lines might be an issue up north, but I also expect where the process will be in a few years will have reduced the amount of tie someone feels to their Brexit position.
My initial thoughts about Jess Philips have been retracted with all that in mind, the key for now is to get the MSM to stop talking about the Labour party and for it to look like a boring united front in the face of Tory government, though I can't deny I'd enjoy PMQs with her. And I'd be interested from a purely academic standpoint, to see if the right-wing media could twist their pretty horrifically regular transphobia into suddenly being staunchly anti-TERFs because now they're suddenly concerned with that issue.
Posted by: Liаm Dec 18 2019, 01:30 AM
QUOTE(Michael Bubré @ Dec 18 2019, 12:27 AM)
The allegations of Jess Phillips being a TERF seem to come from this Twitter thread, of her supporting a group called Woman's Place UK who apparently have used transphobic dogwhistles, and Jess not directly answering when being questioned if she thinks trans women are women.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/931093574011191296
She's also been accused of 'laughing at men's suicide' (which I'm certain is a gross misinterpretation, and she has denied that, I'm sure she's just a very strong feminist but that's being twisted to her being against men, but this idea seems to have been pretty pervasive).
Oh eek. I didn't want to get sucked in because I thought it was the "woke" brigade making a mountain out of a molehill but the fact that she didn't at least say after that that yes trans women are women is concerning. She has been one of the voices fighting against the anti LGBT+ activists who protested inclusive education in schools, so I didn't want to be disappointed in thinking she'd be a great Labour leader when her name came up
The latter I have seen about, to me that came across as her thinking International Men's Day was a joke (making a good point about the fact that her being the only woman on a panel, feeling like every day is Men's Day) but to do that when Phillip Davies was bringing in up in tandem with the issue of rising male suicide was really not the time. I agree with Rooney she's a hothead which can be a good and bad quality, as a potential leader it could be her making or her downfall.
You are right though, the shit flinging before anything has even begun may not be a great sign for when things ramp up!
Posted by: Santa Klaus Dec 18 2019, 09:53 AM
The problem I have is that Keir Starmer is possibly the best fit of a leader for me, and the most excited I would be for a leader since I became interested in politics and possibly the first I could strongly get behind. However, I appreciate he may not be the best fit in terms of getting the public/traditional labour voters back as a whole due to his strong remain stance (which he really puts across so eloquently but even if he ditches it, it will come back to bite him by the media) and he may solidify that divide between the city votes and the working class town votes.
Posted by: Holly and Izzy Dec 18 2019, 02:10 PM
Emily Thornberry now in. I expect predictable sneering from the right as she's everything they find annoying about Labour-in-London-and-elitist in one. I think she's a great voice on her own and I like her a lot, but aside from being a woman (which is only a mentionable positive because it nullifies for good the Tory attack line of 'only major party to have never had a female leader'), everything she can do, Starmer can do better and without people from the north despising the new leader from the get go.
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Dec 18 2019, 04:30 PM
I love Emily a lot, but it really cannot be her.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 18 2019, 05:18 PM
Emily said this in 2013 on Question Time:
Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry has been dragged into the row over Boris Johnson’s controversial comments about Muslim women, after it emerged she told a television audience: “I wouldn’t want my four year old looked after by somebody wearing a burka – I wouldn’t want my elderly mum looked after by somebody wearing a burka."
"They need to be able to show their face,” she told BBC1’s Question Time in November 2013, during a discussion on whether the burka should be banned as she sat next to then Ukip leader Nigel Farage on the panel.
Ms Thornberry said that it was “really important” that in court cases juries get the opportunity to “assess people.” She added that with “certain careers” it was also important to for people's faces to be visible.
Posted by: blacksquare Dec 18 2019, 05:38 PM
QUOTE(Santa Klaus @ Dec 18 2019, 09:53 AM)
The problem I have is that Keir Starmer is possibly the best fit of a leader for me, and the most excited I would be for a leader since I became interested in politics and possibly the first I could strongly get behind. However, I appreciate he may not be the best fit in terms of getting the public/traditional labour voters back as a whole due to his strong remain stance (which he really puts across so eloquently but even if he ditches it, it will come back to bite him by the media) and he may solidify that divide between the city votes and the working class town votes.
I'm not
entirely sure his remain position will be that much of an issue in five years, especially if Brexit fails to live up to expectations. It could end up benefiting him.
Unrelated (somewhat) but why are we all suddenly pretending that a future PM needs to be working-class themselves? I even fell into the trap of thinking Labour
must choose a working-class Northerner. Johnson certainly isn't.
Posted by: Santa Klaus Dec 18 2019, 05:51 PM
I don’t think being working class should be an essential requirement, similarly to how I don’t think it must be a woman. However, I think it could help as Labour are currently excelling in cities (but as we’ve also seem with Brexit), that perhaps somehow enforces an idea of it being the establishment/elite even though the reality is that there’s sort of an upper layer above that which involved Johnson, Mogg, Goldsmith etc. I think a working class leader may help dispel that myth and ensure someone is more ‘in touch’ with the local communities. We’re sort of seeing cities v towns and particularly London v everywhere else.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 18 2019, 06:23 PM
If Labour are trying to appeal to less middle-class voters, it would be surprising for them to have as a leader someone who was literally sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for sneering at the working classes. But apparently a lot of people consider her to be fun, and the Labour membership post-2015 might have got to like her more over the years, so you never know.
Conor McGinn is apparently considering running for the Deputy Leadership, so will be interesting to see if that pans out.
Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 18 2019, 11:48 PM
QUOTE(blacksquare @ Dec 18 2019, 12:10 AM)
Well, he’s definitely going for it then.
After reading this (and with the knowledge that Rayner doesn't seem interested in running for leader) I'm feeling like Starmer is probably the most reasonable choice, and the most likely to be able to mend the divide between the leftists and the centrists in the party.
For what it's worth he's also back to being the favourite to win with some of the bookies.
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Dec 19 2019, 12:19 AM
I'd back him. I still feel Rayner is their absolute best choice and that they could really do with a female leader, but I dont feel any other female candidate is as good as he is (except maybe Dawn Butler if she went for it).
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 19 2019, 12:22 AM
Yeah if Rayner's not standing for leader then think Starmer's their best bet. Bookies have RLB as favourite now though. My feeling is they'll make a mistake again and go for her and Rayner.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 19 2019, 08:24 AM
They need to try and persuade at least one other man to stand. It wouldn't look good if Keir Starmer wins otherwise made up entirely of women. It shouldn't be relevant, but it would reinforce some people's perception of the party.
If Starmer does win (and Johnson is still PM going in to the next election), I suspect there will be no leaders' debates. Starmer would hammer Johnson in such a debate in a way that Corbyn could not. It also wouldn't surprise me if Starmer made it very clear at the start of the campaign that he would be doing an interview with Andrew Neil (or an equivalent if Neil has retired) regardless of whether Johnson did so.
Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 19 2019, 06:14 PM
Clive Lewis has already confirmed he's standing so there is at least one other man.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 19 2019, 10:24 PM
If Rayner is not going to stand then I have come round to the fact Starmer could be a decent leader - he's a former human rights lawyer which would be perfect to forensically take apart Johnsons lies in parliament. One thing I would say is that Starmer is far from a leftist candidate intact he would be exactly like Blair imo but then again at least he stood alongside the current leader when many others wouldn't.
One downside is that they do need a woman leader which he is not. But the candidates aren't good enough for me other than Rayner so why have a woman leader if they don't Fit the bill on this occasion just to make a point?
I like Lewis but he's not a leader and I like Thornbury as she's charismatic but she has history with her comments about the old labour right. I also think she is a political chameleon in terms of the fact she was a blairite earlier in the decade and became a Corbynista in the last four years.
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 19 2019, 10:32 PM
I'm also coming around to the idea of (Sir) Keir Starmer, with the lack of any other decent potential contenders at the moment. I think he is generally on board with the platform as laid out post-2015, the policies and the party movement and is certainly a strong performer in the House of Commons.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 20 2019, 06:15 AM
Clive Lewis throws his hat in the ring...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7812255/Clive-Lewis-launches-Labour-leadership-bid-pledge-party-left.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/19/clive-lewis-joins-race-to-be-labour-leader-pledging-to-unleash-party
I'm sure he'll have full support from the party - the *Tory* party, that is...
Posted by: mald487 Dec 20 2019, 01:49 PM
My two cents having been away for a few days..
The best option(IMO) is Starmer.
True, it definitely wouldn't hurt Labour to finally get rid of the "only party not to have had a female leader" tag, but now more than ever it's so important that they select the best available option rather than just selecting a woman for the sake of it. At the end of the day the press are going to pick apart whoever Labout chooses.
Having said that I would have been totally fine with Angela Rayner but as has been mentioned she has ruled her self out and thrown her support to Long Bailey(who really doesn't represent direction that Labour need to be going in right now in my opinion).
Returning to the Blair years isn't the answer, different time, different electorate, but they need a unifying leader who can bring both sides of the party together. I think the best person to do that is Starmer.
In hindsight I think one of the things that really hurt them last week was Corbyns lack of certainty(especially concerning you know what - the whole "neutral stance" thing probably didn't sound very unconvincing to people who are sick of hearing about it constantly for the last three years and in their minds just want it "done").
I don't anticipate Labour having a realistic shot at getting back into power until 2029, but if they make the right choice here, show a unified stance and offer some certainty to the electorate, then hopefully they can make in roads, and gain back those lost seats lost in North.
I fear however, they will go with Rebecca Long Bailey, who would set them back even further.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 21 2019, 02:27 AM
QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2019, 06:15 AM)
Clive Lewis throws his hat in the ring...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7812255/Clive-Lewis-launches-Labour-leadership-bid-pledge-party-left.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/19/clive-lewis-joins-race-to-be-labour-leader-pledging-to-unleash-party
I'm sure he'll have full support from the party - the *Tory* party, that is...
That Mail article is so biased lol
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 21 2019, 05:39 AM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 02:27 AM)
That Mail article is so biased lol
If I can, I include the Guardian's article, as if I include just the Mail, I know only Chris will read it...
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 21 2019, 09:56 AM
Lol
I didn't think the guardian was as biased until I seen how they treated Corbyn! Now I read the morning star 😉
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 21 2019, 11:16 AM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 10:56 AM)
Lol
I didn't think the guardian was as biased until I seen how they treated Corbyn! Now I read the morning star 😉
You're joking...right?
Posted by: December Dong Dec 21 2019, 11:33 AM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 09:56 AM)
Lol
I didn't think the guardian was as biased until I seen how they treated Corbyn! Now I read the morning star 😉
Canary is also a better, less biased, less neolib option too.
Posted by: mald487 Dec 21 2019, 12:29 PM
I really don´t like the notion that it doesn´t matter who Labour choose as there is no way they are going to win the next GE.
Maybe not, but it absolutely DOES matter. They need to lay the groundwork NOW, at start winning back peoples trust.
The tories are going to lead opinion polls comfortably for a while I would say, especially with being seen as "getting Brexit done" during 2020, but Labour need to start putting in the grind now.
The more progress they can make in 2024 the less of an uphill battle they will have in 2029. Of course I would love to see them do it in 5 years, and I hope they win back as many seats as possible, but I´m just being realistic.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 21 2019, 09:08 PM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 21 2019, 11:16 AM)
You're joking...right?
Yeh!
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Dec 21 2019, 09:17 PM
QUOTE(mald487 @ Dec 21 2019, 12:29 PM)
The tories are going to lead opinion polls comfortably for a while I would say, especially with being seen as "getting Brexit done" during 2020, but Labour need to start putting in the grind now.
The more progress they can make in 2024 the less of an uphill battle they will have in 2029. Of course I would love to see them do it in 5 years, and I hope they win back as many seats as possible, but I´m just being realistic.
Yes they have to win some seats back next time to have any hope in 2028/9.
Think people mean that if the next leader loses in 2023/4 then he or she will resign unless they won quite a few seats back and did like Kinnock and stayed on.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 21 2019, 09:43 PM
Kinnock didn't gain much ground in 87 I don't think?
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 21 2019, 09:45 PM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 09:43 PM)
Kinnock didn't gain much ground in 87 I don't think?
The Tory majority was reduced from about 140 to about 100. So, not a lot of progress.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 21 2019, 09:55 PM
Yeh still a landslide. Where'd labour make banks back? Did they lose the red wall to thatcher or was it s more southern middle England voted then?
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 21 2019, 10:02 PM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 09:55 PM)
Yeh still a landslide. Where'd labour make banks back? Did they lose the red wall to thatcher or was it s more southern middle England voted then?
Labour still had most of Scotland then. The Tories won a lot of seats where Labour and the Lib Dems (or the Alliance as they were then) both polled well.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 21 2019, 10:15 PM
Where were those seats based?
The Scottish seats were at most 40 seats? That's why JCs seat total was down on Foot because Scotland is controlled by the snp whereas Foot could fall back on them.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 21 2019, 10:22 PM
The Tories had a lot more London seats than they have now.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 22 2019, 01:05 AM
Things have changed quite a bit then in a generation!
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 22 2019, 10:04 AM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 22 2019, 01:05 AM)
Things have changed quite a bit then in a generation!
Indeed. While some of the seats the Tories won this time were extraordinary, it is equally surprising that a Labour parliamentary party of just 203 would include members from Hove, Bedford, Canterbury and Enfield Southgate.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 22 2019, 10:16 AM
Yes Catebury staying red was a great result. And as I said if you added 25-35 Scottish seats that would have been guaranteed in their worst modern result in 1983 Corbyn was on course to be similar to Foot/Brown/Miliband so the base is still there for a comeback.
That's the problem though even with a downturn from Brexit labour still need the media/leader to be right to win a majority but it's still good to see the tories with a lot in their favour only just managed to convince the people nearly 30 years after their last majority.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 22 2019, 10:53 AM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 22 2019, 10:04 AM)
Indeed. While some of the seats the Tories won this time were extraordinary, it is equally surprising that a Labour parliamentary party of just 203 would include members from Hove, Bedford, Canterbury and Enfield Southgate.
True!
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 22 2019, 10:16 AM)
Yes Catebury staying red was a great result. And as I said if you added 25-35 Scottish seats that would have been guaranteed in their worst modern result in 1983 Corbyn was on course to be similar to Foot/Brown/Miliband so the base is still there for a comeback.
That's the problem though even with a downturn from Brexit labour still need the media/leader to be right to win a majority but it's still good to see the tories with a lot in their favour only just managed to convince the people nearly 30 years after their last majority.
I think an 80 majority is a bit more than 'only just'.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 22 2019, 10:58 AM
Yeh but they've been trying to convince them for over 10 years now and have only just won a decent majority in 2019 even with PR smooth boy Cameron as leader.
Posted by: Holly and Izzy Dec 23 2019, 11:15 AM
Keir Starmer's #AnotherFutureIsPossible is the most inspiring tag line I've seen from this contest so far.
Talk of Lammy, and while I don't think that it's a good idea for the same reasons as Thornberry (most potential voters are already on side and unlikely to desert Labour unless they start making Blue Labour the centre of the party), I have to question the sort of https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/edw5nt/lammy_hints_at_bid_to_be_labours_first_bame_leader/. The election victory seems to have emboldened all sorts of racists to come out of the woodwork.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 23 2019, 11:54 AM
QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 23 2019, 11:15 AM)
Keir Starmer's #AnotherFutureIsPossible is the most inspiring tag line I've seen from this contest so far.
Talk of Lammy, and while I don't think that it's a good idea for the same reasons as Thornberry (most potential voters are already on side and unlikely to desert Labour unless they start making Blue Labour the centre of the party), I have to question the sort of https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/edw5nt/lammy_hints_at_bid_to_be_labours_first_bame_leader/. The election victory seems to have emboldened all sorts of racists to come out of the woodwork.
What sorts do you mean, exactly?
Posted by: Holly and Izzy Dec 23 2019, 12:09 PM
QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 23 2019, 11:54 AM)
What sorts do you mean, exactly?
The precise taxonomy of racists is not really a relevant rabbithole I want a thread about the next Labour leader to go down, see this relevant comment in another thread I made for the wider issue since the election:
QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 23 2019, 10:48 AM)
Only slightly related, I've seen #OwenJonesIsAw*n**r and #Stormzyisabellend trending in recent days. Awful people ready to engage in bullying are feeling quite emboldened on Twitter lately.
However with regards to Lammy, that
is on topic, it's basically more of the Abbott thing. BAME public figure comes in for far more public ridicule than a white public figure with the same views. "Reasonable people" start saying that it's entirely deserved because of their views while painting over the issue and pretending that systemic racism doesn't exist.
For what it's worth he's a reasonable outspoken politician and engaging in systemic racism doesn't make you a bad person, as long as you accept that that's what's going on and seek to correct yourself in the future.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 29 2019, 11:31 PM
Rebecca Long Bailey has written an article in The Guardian setting out her stall for https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/29/rebecca-long-bailey-labour-party-britain. Which in all honesty...I actually think comes across as quite reasonable to me. It doesn't stick to the Labour narrative that they lost because of Brexit, acknowledges the communities they need to win back in order to take power, and evokes an interesting phrase that could be key if Labour wants to win over more traditional-minded supporters - "progressive patriotism". And interestingly, Jeremy Corbyn is not mentioned once.
I still don't think that she'll be the new leader, for one reason that will be highlighted by her rivals as the campaign starts. Actually, for three reasons. Actually, for one reason and three reasons at the same time.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 30 2019, 05:59 AM
QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 23 2019, 12:09 PM)
The precise taxonomy of racists is not really a relevant rabbithole
Not here perhaps, but IMO it does need discussing, because ATM it feels like the definition has become absurdly wide - basically including anyone who questions the 'progressive/PC' agenda.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Dec 31 2019, 02:31 PM
Richard Burgon has announced he's standing for Deputy Leader. My condolences to every member of the Labour Party.
Posted by: vidsanta Dec 31 2019, 02:51 PM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 31 2019, 02:31 PM)
Richard Burgon has announced he's standing for Deputy Leader. My condolences to every member of the Labour Party.
Never heard of him.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Dec 31 2019, 05:11 PM
In fairness he's a prominent human rights lawyer.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 31 2019, 08:33 PM
QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 31 2019, 02:51 PM)
Never heard of him.
Richard Burgon was the Labour representative on the Question Time panel when an audience member was denouncing the party's income tax policy. He claimed that his £80K salary didn't even put him in the top 50% of earners let alone the top 5%. Poor Burgon simply didn't seem to know how to respond to such complete ignorance.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Jan 1 2020, 12:22 AM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 31 2019, 08:33 PM)
Richard Burgon was the Labour representative on the Question Time panel when an audience member was denouncing the party's income tax policy. He claimed that his £80K salary didn't even put him in the top 50% of earners let alone the top 5%. Poor Burgon simply didn't seem to know how to respond to such complete ignorance.
Yeah remember that very well. Only a few weeks ago actually.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 1 2020, 10:19 PM
Keir Starmer the favourite at the moment. Although at this point a poll like this is more "name a Labour MP that you've heard of", at least until the nominations close and the hustings begin. And don't forget that this early in the 2015 leadership contest Jeremy Corbyn was somewhere between a rank outsider and unheard of.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Jan 1 2020, 11:41 PM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 31 2019, 08:33 PM)
Richard Burgon was the Labour representative on the Question Time panel when an audience member was denouncing the party's income tax policy. He claimed that his £80K salary didn't even put him in the top 50% of earners let alone the top 5%. Poor Burgon simply didn't seem to know how to respond to such complete ignorance.
Thankfully a member of the audience ridiculed the idiot QT member to make him look the fool he is.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Jan 1 2020, 11:42 PM
I'd take Starmer at the moment even though he's a blairite figure, he would be a decent leader imo!
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Jan 1 2020, 11:59 PM
QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Jan 1 2020, 11:42 PM)
I'd take Starmer at the moment even though he's a blairite figure, he would be a decent leader imo!
Have a feeling it will be him actually.
Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 Jan 2 2020, 12:01 AM
I would like it to be a woman but has to be the *right* woman candidate!
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Jan 2 2020, 08:44 PM
Keir Starmer has opened up a solid lead over his rivals in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, according to the first poll of Labour members seen by Sky News.
The Shadow Brexit Secretary beats Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary and favourite of many of those around Mr Corbyn, with Jess Phillips in third place.
YouGov polled 1,059 Labour members for the Economic and Social Research Council's Party Members Project who they'd vote for in the last 10 days of December.
The Labour members were asked to list the likely contenders in terms of their order of preference, as they will be when they vote.
Labour party membership, first preference for leader:
Keir Starmer - 31%
Rebecca Long Bailey - 20%
Jess Phillips - 11%
Yvette Cooper - 7%
Clive Lewis - 7%
Emily Thornberry - 6%
Lisa Nandy - 5%
Once it goes down to a head to head between Long-Bailey and Starmer, Keir leads on 61-39.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Jan 3 2020, 09:40 AM
Here a caller to LBC says why he thinks Dianne Abbott should be next leader despite her few mathematical problems that can happen to anyone. No-one seems to know if he was being serious or on a wind-up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrPExKnztkg
Posted by: vidcapper Jan 3 2020, 10:05 AM
QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Jan 3 2020, 09:40 AM)
Here a caller to LBC says why he thinks Dianne Abbott should be next leader despite her few mathematical problems that can happen to anyone. No-one seems to know if he was being serious or on a wind-up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrPExKnztkg
It's gotta be a wind-up!
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Jan 3 2020, 10:08 AM
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 3 2020, 10:05 AM)
It's gotta be a wind-up!
Am not sure. He sounds pretty serious to me.
He seems to think she wants to stand too but others are holding her back.
Posted by: Iz~ Jan 3 2020, 02:19 PM
Stop being tiresome. She's already declined to run.
In reality, Long-Bailey vs Starmer. I suspect that's a reasonably accurate poll.
I think Starmer has a better chance than most of the non-Corbynite crowd at averting a left meltdown and split, and if chosen he should build a shadow cabinet from across the party. I think if he comes out of this leadership election as a comfortable but not dominant winner over RLB, and then offers her a prominent position within the shadow cabinet, there is hope. Labour infighting needs to be gone.
Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas Jan 3 2020, 04:36 PM
QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jan 3 2020, 02:19 PM)
I think Starmer has a better chance than most of the non-Corbynite crowd at averting a left meltdown and split, and if chosen he should build a shadow cabinet from across the party. I think if he comes out of this leadership election as a comfortable but not dominant winner over RLB, and then offers her a prominent position within the shadow cabinet, there is hope. Labour infighting needs to be gone.
I think he'd offer her Shadow Chancellor which is as high profile as you can get.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 3 2020, 10:07 PM
Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both formally entered the contest.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 3 2020, 10:21 PM
Interesting that Lisa Nandy announced her intention to enter the race through an letter to the https://www.wigantoday.net/news/politics/exclusive-wigan-mp-lisa-nandy-enters-the-race-to-become-new-leader-of-the-labour-party-1-10181778, rather than The Guardian or Channel 4 like other candidates. She's obviously setting up her stall as the Northern towns candidate, and getting the optics primed from the get-go.
Posted by: ChRiMbO LeG PiPe Jan 3 2020, 10:23 PM
Honestly never heard of her.
Posted by: JingleBellJüpes Jan 3 2020, 11:48 PM
I'd be happy with either Starmer or Phillips now. Long-Bailey would be in my opinion the wrong choice for now, although maybe a few years down the line, especially if she updates her look and image.
Frankly while I think Starmer is probably the unity candidate, I think Phillips would be better at holding Johnson to account and putting the cat among the pigeons within the Tories, Farage's latest outfit etc. and would draw back working-class folk to the party - where Starmer might be able to do that, but from authority rather than through undermining the space the Tories claim to occupy within society.
Rayner would have been even better at that, but I'll take what I can get.
Diane Abbott unfortunately is wise enough to know that she can't take this now, the media and public pressure against her is too strong. I'd advise her not to for her own mental health as well, although it does mean in a sense 'letting' the racists win. Unfortunately this has shown itself to be a nasty little country where 'we' (ie. the majority) really don't like black people to say things above their station - if they will in any way threaten the supreme power and comfort of the white majority.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 4 2020, 09:39 AM
Starmer and Phillips would hold Johnson to account in very different ways.
Starmer's attention to detail is a complete contrast to Johnson's attitude. He would be able to use his legal background to expose Johnson's complete lack of attention to detail at PMQs.
Phillips has a reputation for honesty, again very different from Johnson. I suspect Johnson would find it difficult to keep his temper with her, leaving him vulnerable to being seen as a bully. Those exchanges might get more exposure on new bulletins than Starmer's more forensic method of exposing Johnson's weaknesses.
Assuming he gets that far, I think Johnson would be reluctant to face either of them in a television debate at the next election.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 7 2020, 09:26 PM
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, who is running to be Deputy Leader of Labour, has taken a leaf out of the "Trust Me, I'm Lying" playbook by coming up with a potential policy so (intentionally) ludicrous that the media has no choice but to run with it, and people find it so ridiculous that they mockingly share it, therefore increasing her profile.
And given I'm sharing it, it worked.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 7 2020, 09:33 PM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 7 2020, 09:26 PM)
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, who is running to be Deputy Leader of Labour, has taken a leaf out of the "Trust Me, I'm Lying" playbook by coming up with a potential policy so (intentionally) ludicrous that the media has no choice but to run with it, and people find it so ridiculous that they mockingly share it, therefore increasing her profile.
And given I'm sharing it, it worked.
Ah, you've fallen for the Armando Iannucci script. Haven't you?
Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 7 2020, 09:43 PM
I mean, it's a brilliant PR strategy which means that an obscure Labour back-bencher will get to dominate the political media cycle twice.
The first is the one that's currently kicking off, where the "Ministry of Fabulosity" will be endlessly shared, commented upon, and/or mocked.
In the second cycle, which will begin in a few days time, will be the "indignant phase", Dr Rosana will act annoyed that everyone is talking about her dance-off policy and not about the NHS/Brexit/insert other bugbear, then as a kicker will say she wouldn't have got the same reaction if she wasn't a woman/Muslim etc. Thus gaining a second round of endless sharing on social media, with perhaps a BBC News website "Explainer" to boot.
It's strong media manipulation at its finest, and it could keep her in the public eye as the leadership contests get underway.
Posted by: Iz~ Jan 8 2020, 03:58 AM
I'm glad some in Labour have ideas about how to control the conversation. It needs to be done - and something harmless and silly like this is a good way to move into it.
Long-Bailey has made several missteps in that regard. On the whole her policies are great, I notice the Green New Deal is being adopted by American politicians now (and to not attach it too clearly to her, other Labour candidates like Jess Phillips also support that policy), but her campaign is all too ready to make the same mistakes again and let the media twist her into sounding unreasonable ('10/10 Corbyn' being the latest, likely made because she does admire the man but that soundbite is going to go down horribly).
If you see her in action, she's more of a firebrand than Corbyn so could bring some energy to the dispatch box. But making her leader would be an admittance that Labour isn't ready to seek government until 2029 and I don't want that.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 8 2020, 04:17 PM
Unison have become the first major union to announce who they will be supporting. They have gone for Keir Starmer. He is definitely the candidate to beat at the moment. He was at school with Norman Cook so I wonder if there will be anything from him. They were both in the year above my brother.
Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 8 2020, 10:08 PM
Yeah he's the one to beat. Keep reading on DS from Labour members that he's the one most are voting for. Most think RLB is unsuitable.
Wonder if many Tories will pay £25 to join Labour and vote. Certainly not as many as would have done for £3.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 8 2020, 10:15 PM
Keir Starmer has become the first candidate to get enough nominations to make it onto the ballot paper.
Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 8 2020, 11:48 PM
This Tweet is disgusting and she should be ashamed of herself and the Telegraph should sack her. We keep telling kids not to bully other kids because of their appearance so what message does this send?
The shadow business secretary, who looks like the love child of the Roswell alien and Mrs Merton, just confirmed that she is running to succeed Jeremy Corbyn" Writes
@allisonpearson
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1214625847983951872
Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 8 2020, 11:48 PM
Oh and for the record I think RLB is very attractive. Better than Pearson if you look at her pic.
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Jan 9 2020, 12:02 AM
Allison Pearson truly is utter scum.
Posted by: ChRiMbO LeG PiPe Jan 9 2020, 12:06 AM
This is what happens when the Tories get in.
Posted by: vidcapper Jan 9 2020, 05:43 AM
QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Jan 9 2020, 12:06 AM)
This is what happens when the Tories get in.
To what are you referring to? Labour having to pick a new leader??
Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 9 2020, 06:29 PM
I've noticed something small but interesting in relation to media coverage of Rebecca Long-Bailey. Up until a few days ago, when the BBC referred to her the 2nd time in article, she has been referred to as Ms Long Bailey (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51007164 from 6th January). However, as of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51012381, she is now being referred to as Mrs Long-Bailey.
It's a tiny thing, but it's one that raised a lot of questions for me. My understanding of the BBC in-house writing style is that when referring to women, you should use Ms as a default (even if she is married) unless the person in question asks it to be changed to Mrs, Miss or other. This would suggest that Long Bailey has requested that the BBC refer to her in that way going forward, which would raise the question as to why now. Is it because she had a low profile before now and didn't see the need to request this minor change? Is it an attempt to mimic the only other two female Prime Ministers who were also referred to as Mrs (therefore cementing her in people's minds as PM material?). Is she trying to appeal to more traditionally-minded voters by using a more traditional title? Or perhaps because she thought it would lead to people talking about it, and by extension about her Leadership bid (which if so, she succeeded in getting at least one person to notice)?
Posted by: ChRiMbO LeG PiPe Jan 9 2020, 06:37 PM
The bBTory is NOT to be trusted. Their recent bizarre rants against her probably have something to do with it.
And no. Extra bullying, especially from the right wingers. They need to gtfo.
Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 13 2020, 03:53 PM
Five candidates through to next round.
Keir Starmer has 83 nominations from MP's.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has 33
Lisa Nandy 31
Emily Thornberry 23
Jess Philips 23
All 5 Deputy leader candidates through to next round.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 13 2020, 04:23 PM
So I was right to suggest Keir Starmer would be the only male candidate.
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Jan 13 2020, 05:10 PM
It will look kind of bad if Keir wins and prevents a first female leader when all the other candidates are female - but I do feel like he really is the best choice there!
I don't even know who Clive Lewis is if I'm honest, I saw he dropped out.
Still can't believe Wrong Daily is there and Angela Rayner not, I can't put into words how gutted I am about that.
Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 13 2020, 05:29 PM
QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Jan 13 2020, 05:10 PM)
It will look kind of bad if Keir wins and prevents a first female leader when all the other candidates are female - but I do feel like he really is the best choice there!
Sky's political editor saying Jess could be the dark horse here.
Posted by: Auld Lang Peen Jan 13 2020, 05:34 PM
None of them are Corbyn Angela Raynar was the best, but maybe she is waiting for Bojo's majority to go down before running... Bojo did the same with Mad May.
Posted by: LMLou Jan 13 2020, 05:53 PM
I'd be ok with anyone but Jess Phillips. My personal choice would be RLB as I believe she will be the only one to make the drastic changes the country needs, but from a logical standpoint I think Nandy or Starmer have the best chance of winning an election
Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 13 2020, 06:13 PM
QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Jan 13 2020, 05:10 PM)
It will look kind of bad if Keir wins and prevents a first female leader when all the other candidates are female - but I do feel like he really is the best choice there!
I don't even know who Clive Lewis is if I'm honest, I saw he dropped out.
Still can't believe Wrong Daily is there and Angela Rayner not, I can't put into words how gutted I am about that.
That's exactly what I said a few weeks ago. That's why I think it is unfortunate that Starmer is the only male candidate.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 13 2020, 09:13 PM
Will lock this topic in the next few days to update the poll with the current nominated Leaders/Deputy Leaders.
In the meantime, let's take a moment to appreciate my favourite candidate-related meme account, Lisa Nandy Holding Things. This has been my favourite so far:
Posted by: Steve201 Jan 14 2020, 01:55 AM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 13 2020, 06:13 PM)
That's exactly what I said a few weeks ago. That's why I think it is unfortunate that Starmer is the only male candidate.
Labour needs a female leader but not so badly that a less competent leader is installed.
Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 14 2020, 08:53 AM
QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jan 14 2020, 01:55 AM)
Labour needs a female leader but not so badly that a less competent leader is installed.
Excellent analysis Steve.
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