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| Christmas Number 1 odds |
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 11th December 2019, 10:30 PM
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#161
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138 
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Wonder if Ellie will be first look no1 on Sunday?
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11th December 2019, 10:33 PM
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#162
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,608 User: 11,746
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 11 2019, 10:30 PM)  Wonder if Ellie will be first look no1 on Sunday? I highly suspect LadBaby will be #1 on Sunday due to a day's streaming being missing and him being likely to have great opening day sales. Still can't see him getting #1 for the week but that may just be wishful thinking. |
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11th December 2019, 10:42 PM
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#163
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 is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,111 User: 8,300
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I think after what happened this week it's not worth putting much stock in what the First Look chart says next week. It'll probably be fairly clear if LadBaby is heading for an easy #1 anyway (and indeed he's likely to have the First Look #1 regardless due to the bias to sales).
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11th December 2019, 10:48 PM
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#164
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What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
Joined: 16 October 2008
Posts: 5,862 User: 7,475
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My prediction for the Christmas chart
1) Ladbaby (82,000) 2) Stormzy (64,000) 3) Tones (59,000) |
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11th December 2019, 10:55 PM
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#165
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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You think DM will be as high as 3 with ACR?
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11th December 2019, 10:58 PM
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#166
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Michael Bubré @ Dec 11 2019, 10:42 PM) I think after what happened this week it's not worth putting much stock in what the First Look chart says next week. It'll probably be fairly clear if LadBaby is heading for an easy #1 anyway (and indeed he's likely to have the First Look #1 regardless due to the bias to sales). Yeh true, I forgot about Ladbaby having preorders and likely to have big opening sales. |
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11th December 2019, 11:02 PM
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#167
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What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
Joined: 16 October 2008
Posts: 5,862 User: 7,475
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 11 2019, 10:55 PM) You think DM will be as high as 3 with ACR? I debated it for a while but I do think she’ll sneak into the top 3 still EDiT - Changed my mind there’s no way is there as if she managed to increase in sales on other platforms she’ll have to increase overall then she won’t be on ACR! Lewis or Mariah then 
This post has been edited by Mr. C. Joel: 11th December 2019, 11:04 PM |
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11th December 2019, 11:04 PM
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#168
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Mr. C. Joel @ Dec 11 2019, 11:02 PM) I debated it for a while but I do think she’ll sneak into the top 3 still. If not Mariah. I guess it's possible as she's still selling on all formats remarkably well and it's 28-35k for the 5-10 positions over the past few weeks. Usually the biggest hits have a 1-10/11 fall once falling into ACR. But DM is bigger than 'Senorita' for example. This post has been edited by ChristmaSteve201: 11th December 2019, 11:11 PM |
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11th December 2019, 11:05 PM
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#169
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What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
Joined: 16 October 2008
Posts: 5,862 User: 7,475
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 11 2019, 11:04 PM) I guess it's possible as she's still selling on all formats remarkably well and it's 28-35 for the 5-10 positions over the past few weeks. Usually the biggest hits have a 1-10/11 fall once falling into ACR. But DM is bigger than 'Senorita' for example. I’ve changed my mind I can’t see her sticking around as she’s already dropped to #2 behind Stormzy on Apple Music.... |
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12th December 2019, 01:05 AM
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#170
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,111 User: 8,300
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You really think LadBaby is going to sell more than he did last year (despite iTunes being even more a thing of the past) by repeating the same joke? I think even if he does get #1 it'll still be on lower sales than last year.
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12th December 2019, 08:16 AM
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#171
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What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
Joined: 16 October 2008
Posts: 5,862 User: 7,475
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QUOTE(Michael Bubré @ Dec 12 2019, 01:05 AM) You really think LadBaby is going to sell more than he did last year (despite iTunes being even more a thing of the past) by repeating the same joke? I think even if he does get #1 it'll still be on lower sales than last year. I do think he'll have more sales this year purely because his fanbase has got bigger, it's not the casual listener so people will actively download on Amazon and iTunes as that's what's being promoted. I really hope I'm wrong though it would be nice to see Stormzy take the double. |
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12th December 2019, 08:49 AM
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#172
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Mr. C. Joel @ Dec 11 2019, 10:48 PM) My prediction for the Christmas chart 1) Ladbaby (82,000) 2) Stormzy (64,000) 3) Tones (59,000) I'd agree with that but I don't think the monkey will be top 5. |
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14th December 2019, 06:58 PM
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#173
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,111 User: 8,300
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Stormzy's odds shortening significantly has allowed me to partially cash out the cheeky bets I placed and guarantee a profit
 now at least if LadBaby does hold #1 I'll still be disappointed but at least I won't be out of all of my stake money.  Stand to win a lot more if Stormzy does get #1 but I'm up a whopping £3.68 minimum either way. x (I sat out of betting on the Xmas #1 last year iirc but the stupidly long odds for Stormzy were too tempting to resist...) |
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14th December 2019, 07:24 PM
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#174
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561
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Talking of stupidly long odds, wasn't Clean Bandit 25/1 in 2016 pretty close to Christmas?
Though I remember everybody thought Friends of Jo Cox would get to #1.. it ended up at #136. |
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14th December 2019, 07:34 PM
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#175
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,111 User: 8,300
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^ Yes, I thought at the time then that the odds were way too long as well and I put a large bet on them at (iirc) 9/1, which I ended up cashing out early and then placing another bet later at shorter odds. Still won a fair amount on that but I was kicking myself a lot for not just sticking to my original bet!
And then based on that result I had the HUBRIS to waste a lot of money betting on Bieber to beat the NHS Choir which obviously didn't turn out the same way. Moral of the story is these charity campaigns are never predictable. I still think this year's could very easily go either way. edit: actually I must be remembering this a little wrong as Bieber/NHS Choir was of course before Clean Bandit, but still, I definitely lost on Bieber but won (albeit less than I could have) on Clean Bandit x I think maybe the reason I cashed out Clean Bandit was being fooled into thinking the Jo Cox song would do the same thing the NHS Choir did? Aside: on Bet365 the odds for 'Stormzy and Ed Sheeran' are now shorter than the odds for just 'Stormzy' (6/4 and 4/1 respectively) which truly makes no sense, unless they would for some reason not pay out on a bet on just Stormzy? Meanwhile a bet for just Ed Sheeran is at 25/1, I'm going to assume that they wouldn't pay out on that for 'Own It' going to #1... |
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14th December 2019, 07:35 PM
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#176
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I'm in a vewy bad mood, Bwadley.
Joined: 24 September 2008
Posts: 35,880 User: 7,117
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I got them at 33/1 that year, a shame I only put £3 on cos I later added an extra £2 but they’d already shortened to 10/1.
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14th December 2019, 10:03 PM
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#177
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
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I’ve put £10 on Stormzy at 4/1. I won about £90 with Clean Bandit a few years back but but LadBaby thwarted what would have been a great win on Ava Max last year. Just praying he doesn’t get to No.1 this year, I respect that it’s for a good cause but the track itself is really cringeworthy. If it does make the top then it’ll probably be out of the top 40 next week.
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14th December 2019, 10:37 PM
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#178
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Dec 14 2019, 10:03 PM) I’ve put £10 on Stormzy at 4/1. I won about £90 with Clean Bandit a few years back but but LadBaby thwarted what would have been a great win on Ava Max last year. Just praying he doesn’t get to No.1 this year, I respect that it’s for a good cause but the track itself is really cringeworthy. If it does make the top then it’ll probably be out of the top 40 next week. Good luck, I am rooting for you - would be brilliant to have Stormzy at number 1 for Christmas! |
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14th December 2019, 10:41 PM
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#179
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,111 User: 8,300
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Stormzy getting the Christmas #1 would be a great bit of closure after his valiant effort to get there with 'Shut Up' that gave him his first big hit single. I do wish it was with a better song but still x
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15th December 2019, 01:02 AM
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#180
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138
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Team Stormzy for me too!
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