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Thought about bumping the general US thread but this fits with what we did last time. Significant elections impact the United States on Tuesday, and with them, the likelihood of markets staying stable and the Biden administration able to get things done in face of the rise of Republican fascism.

Also I've been unable as ever to stay off sites like 538 which have very fun prediction maps. See here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

The elections are for one-third of the Senate, the entire House of Representatives and a large number of governorships, plus many statewide races, so if you're American there's lots to vote for.

Currently:
Senate is 50-50, with Kamala Harris breaking ties as VP, this means that the Democrats haven't been able to get much done as shitlords blue conservatives called Manchin and Sinema have been blocking anything remotely progressive

House has a narrow Democrat majority, but now face a redistricted map.

Many of the governorships are in Republican hands, as well as a large majority of state legislatures and of course the Supreme Court. The supposed Democrat trifecta is about as weak as a trifecta can be.

Biden himself has pretty bad approval ratings.

Projections:
Democrats were favoured to take the Senate to a small majority in the summer with pickups swinging their way, but the races have narrowed and the Senate outcome is essentially a tossup, entirely depends on what happens on the day.

Democrats are widely expected to lose the House which of course ends in gridlock on Capitol Hill.

Governors are probably less dramatic and will get less media attention but there could be some changes which means some states stuck with Republicans making their laws.

Key races

John Fetterman vs Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania)

Probably the highest profile race, Pennsylvania's Senate race has gotten a lot of attention as assuming no other changes to the map, it gives Democrats their 51st seat so one Manchin can't block progress (Manchin and Sinema still can, but that's by the by). You have Fetterman, a small-town former mayor with essentially the politics of Bernie Sanders and a large imposing physique (don't underestimate this selling point) against TV doctor and celeb Mehmet Oz, promoter of pseudoscience and unsurprisingly a conservative Republican. Like Trump. Until recently I'd have said that Fetterman had a huge advantage and he probably still does, but unfortunately he suffered a stroke in the summer and there was a widely publicised debate in which he was, unfortunately barely coherent up against Oz's media-trained experience. Though Fetterman's campaign still lucked out and got Oz saying 'an abortion should be between the woman, her doctor and her local political leaders', plus they are way better at emphasising that Oz is a parachuted candidate who doesn't live in Pennsylvania.

It's the big race to watch in any case.

Raphael Warnock vs Herschel Walker (Georgia)
Georgia's late-arriving Senators that got the Democrats their Senate in 2020 have a test too. Warnock was elected on a special election so he has to fight again. His opponent is former NFL player Herschel Walker, again a trend of Republicans relying on former celebrities gone conservative politicians. It's a good pick, though this time it's the Democrats who by far have the better speaker. I am having it down that Warnock will squeak home, Walker's had his own scandals and up against a squeaky-clean pastor like Warnock, the right candidate should prevail. 538 has this more likely of a Republican win than Democrat but my prediction would be Georgia is more likely to hold than Pennsylvania is a win.

Mark Kelly Vs Blake Masters (Arizona)
Former astronaut Kelly up against Zuckerberg lookalike Masters, I think this should be a safe Democrat hold but Arizona is where there have been most reports of "ballot guards", so watch out for news from here.

Catherine Cortez Masto vs Adam Paul Laxalt (Nevada)
Barely getting as much attention as other close Senate races but this is also a tossup, the Democrats could lose an incumbent here too.

Senate-wise, Longshots for Democrats include Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin, which all COULD flip but are unlikely as things stand, where as if the Democrats have a really bad night, they could lose New Hampshire, Colorado or Washington.

For House seats, there's so many more and they aren't as high profile, so I would pick Alaska's race, a rematch of the August special election and one that could well see new congresswoman Mary Peltola see off Sarah Palin again, would be a big morale boost to hold the House seat in a state that is otherwise very red.

American posters, share your thoughts and feelings about the elections here, everyone else, these will be key in how Biden continues for the next few years and the Democrat chances of retaining the presidency in 2024. Also Biden so far has, whatever else he's done (most of it good as far as presidents go) has been the best American president for foreign policy in my lifetime.