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Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 4 2018, 12:05 PM

I couldn't post in the other thread, so I though I'd start a new thread if that is ok with everyone?

Interesting YouGov survey which looked at polling for 18-24 year-olds only.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1036900674573934592

Posted by: YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! Sep 4 2018, 12:11 PM

I SAW THAT!!

The young don't watch the BBTory or read the Murdoch press. Disgusting we have this government and Beexit when thr young despise both.

Posted by: Popchartfreak Sep 4 2018, 12:15 PM

QUOTE(YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! @ Sep 4 2018, 01:11 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Sep 4 2018, 01:48 PM

The PC and SNP numbers look a little lower than I would expect based on what has actually happened at elections. I’d also expect a higher green vote.

Probably a by-product of a small sample.

The number for the Tories isn’t a shock at all. You could expand that to 35 and they’d still struggle to gain a seat

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 4 2018, 02:27 PM

The projection if only over-65s were allowed to vote, of course, showed the Tories winning well over 500 seats.

Posted by: YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! Sep 4 2018, 02:32 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Sep 4 2018, 03:27 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 4 2018, 02:49 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Sep 4 2018, 03:27 PM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak Sep 4 2018, 04:03 PM

QUOTE(YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! @ Sep 4 2018, 03:32 PM)

Posted by: danG Sep 4 2018, 04:03 PM

Instead we'll most likely just have a new generation of over 65s who vote Tory, there's a clear trend the older you are the more likely to vote conservative.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 4 2018, 04:14 PM

QUOTE(danG @ Sep 4 2018, 05:03 PM)

Posted by: YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! Sep 9 2018, 07:28 PM

QUOTE(danG @ Sep 4 2018, 05:03 PM)

Instead we'll most likely just have a new generation of over 65s who vote Tory, there's a clear trend the older you are the more likely to vote conservative.

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 12 2018, 06:08 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Sep 4 2018, 03:49 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 12 2018, 06:11 AM

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Sep 4 2018, 05:03 PM)

Posted by: YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! Sep 12 2018, 08:45 AM

Wrong to both viscapprr.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Sep 12 2018, 09:43 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 12 2018, 08:11 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 12 2018, 03:27 PM

Any thoughts on the rise of the AfD, Silas?

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Sep 12 2018, 07:58 PM

Concerning but their numbers seem to fluctuate quite heavily as they’re down to 4th in the most recent poll with the Greens ahead of them and the SPD having lost 3% between polls.

Chemnitz was a bit scary and I think the weekend before in Berlin there was an AfD/NeoNazi March and multiple people were charged with making the Nazi salute (which is a crime in Germany)

It will be interesting to see how Merkel responds going forward to such blatant marching of Nazis on the streets. Immigration itself seems to be a lesser issue than it was their support might start to fall away in the west but the East remains their best breeding ground for support. I don’t think they’ll be going away any time soon. Almost 30 years post reunification the East still lags behind the West in living standards and GDP

Posted by: YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! Sep 12 2018, 08:02 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Sep 12 2018, 08:58 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 12 2018, 08:29 PM

QUOTE(YOUSHALLNOTPEEN! @ Sep 12 2018, 09:02 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Sep 12 2018, 08:47 PM

I'm not really sure that the North/South divide is really comparable to the East/West split in Germany because of the circumstances that lead to the variation in Standards and Economic performance. Three states, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bayern and Baden-Württemberg each on their own have a higher GDP that the entirety of east Germany combined. I think if you include West Berlin then it's a tight battle for 3rd sport with BW and still over €200bn behind NRW.

30 years ago these states were still under communist rule and life was very tough. It's remarkable what has been achieved to date in reintegrating them with West Germany but there's still a long way to go until the inequality between DDR and BDR is reduced to negligible levels.

Posted by: Brett-Butler Sep 19 2018, 05:19 PM

Tweet from https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1042119111797616640 -

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 20 2018, 04:30 PM

Latest from Ipsos/Mori

Con - 39
Lab - 37
LibD - 13

Usual caveats (only one poll, blah, blah, blah) apply.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 20 2018, 05:15 PM

Slightly more details on that poll...

CON: 39% (+1)
LAB: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 13% (+3)
GRN: 5% (+2)
UKIP: 2% (-4)

via @IpsosMORI, 14 - 18 Sep
Chgs. w/ 24 Jul

Note that the polling started before the Lib Dem conference, not that it was exactly prominent in the news bulletins.

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 21 2018, 05:20 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Sep 20 2018, 06:15 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 26 2018, 03:19 PM

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (+1)
CON: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
UKIP: 8% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Sep
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-18th-september-2018-2/

Over half (56%) of the public think that there should be another general election if the UK does not secure a deal with the EU by 29th March 2019

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 27 2018, 05:14 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Sep 26 2018, 04:19 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 30 2018, 05:31 AM

See how quiet/boring this forum gets when I hardly post.

YOuGov poll

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/09/28/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-36-24-25-/

Posted by: Doctor Blind Oct 3 2018, 11:13 AM

Some more polling from BMG (28/29 September)

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 12% (+2)
UKIP: 5% (-)

via @BMGResearch, 28 - 29 Sep: https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/huffpost-bmg-voting-intention-polling-results/
Chgs. w/ 22 Sep

and on that EU question:

REMAIN: 47%
LEAVE: 43%
PLEASE STOP ASKING ME THIS QUESTION/DON'T KNOW: 10%

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 4 2018, 05:21 AM

THere does seem to be more variation between polls now...

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 8 2018, 05:32 AM

Update :

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Posted by: ¡Michael Myers! Oct 9 2018, 11:17 AM

Tories must be BRICKING IT

Even their biased polls aren't doing much for them. They are over.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 15 2018, 05:21 AM

QUOTE(¡Michael Myers! @ Oct 9 2018, 12:17 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 29 2018, 06:26 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 15 2018, 05:21 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Nov 10 2018, 01:54 PM

The latest poll from Survation (9 November) shows the two largest parties still neck-and-neck. The splits for 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 are v interesting though which shows that the Conservatives have a big problem with the under 45s!

https://www.survation.com/labour-narrowly-lead-conservatives-in-new-voting-intention-poll/

Posted by: vidcapper Dec 3 2018, 06:38 AM

Snap election now could see Corbyn as Prime Minister propped up by Nicola Sturgeon's SNP, poll finds

Theresa May fighting to salvage her Brexit deal ahead of crunch Commons vote
Fears rising of a snap election as Parliament looks to be in deadlock over options
Poll of polls shows as of now Tories could be largest party but out of government

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6451939/Snap-election-Corbyn-PM-propped-SNP.html

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 3 2018, 09:53 AM

Hopes!!

Yippee!!

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 3 2018, 11:11 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Dec 3 2018, 09:53 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 3 2018, 11:15 AM

Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act (cheers Nick Clegg...) there won't be a snap general election. I cannot see the appetite for it from 2/3 of the HoC -

Secondly, even IF there were to be a snap election, the result would likely be the same hung parliament we have currently (going on recent Opinion Polls) with no party nor coalition able to command a majority.

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 3 2018, 03:38 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 3 2018, 11:15 AM)

Posted by: December's Dong Dec 3 2018, 03:51 PM

So you admit the Tories know they are done?

Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 3 2018, 05:57 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 3 2018, 11:15 AM)

Posted by: Christmasteve201 Dec 3 2018, 07:53 PM

It May loses the vote next Tuesday what will happen? Will she not have the confidence of parliament meaning JC will be asked to form a minority gov or will the bill be amended and passed?

Posted by: December's Dong Dec 3 2018, 07:59 PM

It is a deal, so cannot be amended.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 3 2018, 08:01 PM

There would have to be a separate vote of confidence if the government loses the vote on the deal. It seems almost certain that Labour would table one if the government does lose on the 11th. If that is passed (basically, if the DUP abandon the confidence and supply arrangement), Corbyn (or someone else) would have 14 days to form a government. If he can't, there will be a general election.

Posted by: Christmasteve201 Dec 3 2018, 11:43 PM

Omg!

There's a European council meeting that May will try and get an amendment!

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Dec 4 2018, 06:12 AM

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 3 2018, 01:11 PM)

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 4 2018, 06:23 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 3 2018, 08:01 PM)

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 4 2018, 06:26 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 06:12 AM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Dec 4 2018, 06:38 AM

Labour are still weak north of the border though. Scottish polling numbers look exceptionally different to that for the rest of the UK. The SNP are in the 40’s and then Tory and Labour are hanging out around the low 20’s. Labour lost a lot of votes in Scotland for good and many think Corbyns full of shite (plus the Scottish party are crap and more interested in trying to score a cheap political goal than doing anything of use). Additionally they propped up a lot of Tory council administrations, even when the SNP were the largest party and when they are supposed to be similar in political outlook. That really hurt them

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 4 2018, 06:56 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 06:38 AM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Dec 4 2018, 07:20 AM

They have long ruled out formally being part of a coalition government, but would enter a confidence and supply arrangement and have always been open about their willingness to do that in return for more devolution. That and a chance to be part of ending austerity would be a big motivator for them to join forces. They’re judged on Holyrood so more money and more power for Holyrood puts them in a good place for 2021

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 4 2018, 07:27 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 07:20 AM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Dec 4 2018, 08:30 AM

They’re two very different parties with very different leadership for a start

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 4 2018, 09:25 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 08:30 AM)

Posted by: Glühbotchia Dec 4 2018, 10:28 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 07:20 AM)

Posted by: Christmasteve201 Dec 4 2018, 12:06 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 06:38 AM)

Posted by: Christmasteve201 Dec 4 2018, 12:08 PM

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 4 2018, 09:25 AM)

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 4 2018, 02:58 PM

QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 4 2018, 12:08 PM)

Posted by: Harve Dec 4 2018, 05:28 PM

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 4 2018, 03:58 PM)

Posted by: December's Dong Dec 4 2018, 10:40 PM

DUP announced it wants an election. Tories are over. Great use of 1billion eh Mad May!

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 4 2018, 11:52 PM

But what would that election resolve? Probably we'd end up with what we've got now- and even less time to resolve Brexit.

A new poll from ComRes makes even more troubling viewing...

On "asking the EU to renegotiate the current deal if the House of Commons votes against it on 11th December":
Support: 45%
Oppose: 25%

~~

On "extending the date when the UK leaves the EU beyond 29th March 2019":

Support: 34%
Oppose: 46%

~~

On "the UK remaining a full member of the EU":

Support: 44%
Oppose: 45%

~~

On "holding a second referendum on whether to Remain or Leave":

Support: 40%
Oppose: 50%

~~

On "implementing in full the deal negotiated by Theresa May and agreed by the EU":

Support:: 26%
Oppose: 42%

On "having a 'no deal' or 'clean break' Brexit":

Support: 34%
Oppose: 41%

via @ComRes, 30 Nov - 02 Dec

And finally...

LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 37% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)


So no majority support for the current deal, none for extending A50, massively split on whether to stay in the EU, and no majority support for a 2nd referendum, nor for having a 'no deal' Brexit.

In chess they'd call that zugzwang !

Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 5 2018, 02:25 PM

Most recent polls have shown a majority in favour of a referendum on the deal. I suspect the language used may make a difference. "Second referendum" makes it sound like people are being told "You got it wrong, try again" (as Mayhem may be saying to MPs next week). "A referendum on the deal" is a more accurate description of what people ar calling for.

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 6 2018, 06:33 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 5 2018, 02:25 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Dec 6 2018, 08:17 AM

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 6 2018, 06:33 AM)

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 6 2018, 08:50 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 6 2018, 08:17 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 23 2018, 07:53 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (+1)
LAB: 39% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 6% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec
Chgs. w/ 14 Dec

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 24 2018, 06:11 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 23 2018, 07:53 PM)

Posted by: Christmasteve201 Dec 24 2018, 04:27 PM

It's a result of the polarised nature of British politics at present - democratic socialism for labour will only attract so many voters so the others turn to the tories (people who hate corbynism and won't vote LDs due to their history this decade under clegg) so the two big parties are stuck at a plateau at present. Is it not worrying for tories that JC labour reached 15 points higher than anyone from the right believed they would pre June 2017?

UKIP steady on 6% after I thought they'd disappeared must be the result of the threat to Brexit at present?

Posted by: Michaelmas! Dec 24 2018, 06:15 PM

QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 24 2018, 04:27 PM)

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 25 2018, 06:16 AM

QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 24 2018, 04:27 PM)

QUOTE(Michaelmas! @ Dec 24 2018, 06:15 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 5 2019, 11:45 PM

via https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1081678914123124741:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

Brett-Butler's usual caveats about reading too much into one opinion poll applies, but if this isn't an errant poll, then the Lib Dems must be rather proud with themselves, and Labour less so. I'm also choosing to believe that a few % of the "other" not featured in this poll is going to the SDP...

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen Jan 6 2019, 12:13 AM

Pfft. YouGov is an old people's Tory poll. I don't belive Miss 400 Seat Tory Majority YouGov for one second

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 6 2019, 12:17 AM

YouGov was the poll that was https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/09/how-yougovs-election-model-compares-final-result, but whatever makes you feel good.

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen Jan 6 2019, 12:36 AM

It said Tories would have 400 seat majorities. It loves the Tories.

Posted by: vidcapper Jan 6 2019, 06:31 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 6 2019, 12:17 AM)

QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 6 2019, 12:36 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 6 2019, 03:20 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 5 2019, 11:45 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Jan 6 2019, 03:38 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 6 2019, 03:20 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Jan 6 2019, 04:15 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 6 2019, 03:38 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jan 6 2019, 04:26 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 6 2019, 04:20 PM)

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 6 2019, 04:38 PM)

Posted by: Crazy Chris Jan 7 2019, 05:20 PM

QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 6 2019, 12:13 AM)

Posted by: Botchia Jan 7 2019, 11:14 PM

QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 6 2019, 12:13 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jan 7 2019, 11:24 PM

No that was Survation: https://www.survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/ (the last survey of which had figures of- LAB 42 (-2) CON 41 (NC) LD 10 (NC) GRE (-1) UKIP 5 (+2) AP 2 (NC))

YouGov underrepresented Labour by around 6pc in the 2017 GE but somehow got the seat share reasonably well despite this.

Personally I have seen the polls shift very little over the past 12 months, this looks like it is likely to be an outlier - used exclusively to provoke debate/discussion - but ultimately meaningless.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jan 12 2019, 08:48 AM

and speaking of which... here is the latest Survation poll.

Posted by: vidcapper Jan 12 2019, 09:16 AM

[quote name='Doctor Blind' post='6161199' date='Jan 12 2019, 08:48 AM']and speaking of which... here is the latest Survation poll.



So, basically the same as it's been for quite a while, allowing for margin of error.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jan 12 2019, 09:32 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 12 2019, 09:16 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Feb 2 2019, 08:44 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (+4)
LAB: 34% (-6)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 30 Jan - 01 Feb
Chgs. w/ 18 Jan

Quite a shift here, could be an outlier - could be a sign of things finally changing .. ?

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 10 2019, 02:58 PM

Different site than usual - still a summary of recent polls though.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/

Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 19 2019, 08:20 PM

Time to both a) look at the first post-Independent Group opinion poll, and b) check out the new Twitter embed function -

Posted by: BotchLikeThis Feb 19 2019, 08:40 PM

The Lib Dems should just disband and form a new centrist party with IG. Lib Dems are far too tainted and any new centrist party will push them further into irrelevance.

However, I'm not surprised that Lib Dems have barely lost any support to IG. I think switchers would most likely be the centrist Tories / Labour voters who are unhappy with the current extremities of these parties. Lib Dems continue to plod along and please their core voters but it's difficult to see them making any real headway in future if they couldn't do it with the current weakness of the Tories and Labour.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Feb 19 2019, 08:44 PM

The IG don't really have any real policies or platform at the moment (except 'stop Brexit') so difficult to see this initial bounce go much higher at this stage, but interesting nonetheless to see such a strong start. I still get the impression it will struggle, especially if and when Brexit is resolved and the other issues facing society became more prevalent.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Feb 19 2019, 10:25 PM

Those numbers don’t add up at all. Even counting the SNP and PC and NI you’re still a good 7% short of 100%

Posted by: Envoirment Feb 19 2019, 10:32 PM

Interesting to see the IG with such a large share right off the bat. With an 8th Labour MP joining and the potential for more (perhaps even some Tory MPs joining) it could be a nice way of eating into Con/Lab and give us a more spread out vote/seat share amongst parties, in which a colatition government is the only option. There's still a long way until 2022 though (unless there's a GE before then) and it's early days for the IG. They may fizzle out once the "hype" dies down. Hopefully they'll register as a political party and start fleshing out their policies and such. I honestly hope they do well and can cement themselves similarly to how the Lib Dems have. It'd be nice for Lab/Con to have less power and influence.

Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 19 2019, 10:36 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Feb 19 2019, 11:25 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 19 2019, 10:39 PM

Added hilarity in the more detailed breakdown - the 1% of people in Scotland who said they'd vote for Plaid Cymru. A party that is quite well known for not standing candidates in Scotland.

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 20 2019, 09:04 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Feb 19 2019, 08:20 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 20 2019, 09:12 AM

Please see my post from 10 hours ago with full polling data.

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 20 2019, 09:12 AM

QUOTE(Envoirment @ Feb 19 2019, 10:32 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Feb 20 2019, 09:36 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Feb 19 2019, 10:36 PM)

Posted by: BotchLikeThis Feb 20 2019, 12:55 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Feb 20 2019, 09:12 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 20 2019, 02:45 PM

QUOTE(BotchLikeThis @ Feb 20 2019, 12:55 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 23 2019, 06:25 AM

It'll be interesting to see how the TIG rate in the polls for the next month or two - especially as they appear to have only one policy, and no really big names...

Posted by: Steve201 Feb 23 2019, 04:21 PM

At ethe independent group standing in elections? They certainly don't seem to want to stand in a by election anyway!

Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 23 2019, 04:33 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Feb 23 2019, 05:21 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 23 2019, 05:34 PM

There are no local elections in Newport, so I suspect the by-election may be in April. The only reason for leaving it until May ould be if Labour think there is a chance they could lose the seat.

Fielding a large number of candidates in the May elections would be a huge rusk for the Tiggers. With no party organisation at the moment, they could end up getting very bad results indeed. That could kill them off before they've even started.

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 24 2019, 06:36 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 23 2019, 05:34 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 24 2019, 06:49 AM

Conservatives would win a 34-seat majority if a General Election were held tomorrow - but LOSE if Jeremy Corbyn stepped down as Labour leader, poll suggests

Theresa May would would win a 34-seat majority in a General Election, poll says
The Mail on Sunday poll puts the Conservatives on 39% and Labour on 31%
Without Corbyn as leader, Labour would win 40% over the Tories 37%, poll says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6738541/Conservatives-win-34-seat-majority-General-Election-held-tomorrow-poll-suggests.html

******************************************

OK, the numbers themselves are not that important, but the notion that there would be a considerable swing to Labour without Corbyn as leader, should provide food for thought...

Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 24 2019, 08:57 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Feb 24 2019, 06:36 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 24 2019, 09:20 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 24 2019, 08:57 AM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 25 2019, 10:54 PM

For anyone in any doubt as to why Labour are now suddenly in favour of a 2nd referendum -

Posted by: BotchLikeThis Feb 25 2019, 11:19 PM

Oh dear at Labour!

Posted by: vidcapper Feb 26 2019, 06:22 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Feb 25 2019, 10:54 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Mar 3 2019, 11:19 PM

Latest Opinium

Definitely a slump for Labour and a surge for the Conservatives! That's the Conservatives, who just had to pay out £33 million to EuroTunnel to settle a lawsuit over extra ferry services in the event of a no-deal Brexit.: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47414699

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 34% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 26 Feb - 01 Mar
Chgs. w/ 15 Feb


TIG down to 5%...

Posted by: Doctor Blind Mar 17 2019, 11:45 AM

Latest from Survation:

Posted by: vidcapper Mar 17 2019, 02:47 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 17 2019, 11:45 AM)

Posted by: Steve201 Mar 17 2019, 05:30 PM

That's a poll to frighten the torys with this weeks vote for me because labour were well behind over the past two months now all of a sudden they have a decent lead!?

Posted by: Envoirment Mar 17 2019, 05:40 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Mar 17 2019, 05:30 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Mar 17 2019, 05:53 PM

I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll.

Posted by: vidcapper Mar 18 2019, 06:26 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 17 2019, 05:53 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Mar 31 2019, 12:00 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 17 2019, 05:53 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 1 2019, 05:07 AM

I think the odds of the PM calling a GE have just lengthened greatly...

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 13 2019, 09:41 AM

Voting intention for both Westminster & EU polls. As it stands, Labour ahead in EU polls, with Brexit Party & Ukip eating into the Tories at the same level:

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 13 2019, 02:16 PM

[quote name='Brett-Butler' post='6217043' date='Apr 13 2019, 10:41 AM']Voting intention for both Westminster & EU polls. As it stands, Labour ahead in EU polls, with Brexit Party & Ukip eating into the Tories at the same level:


Very fragmented, especially for the Euro's!

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 13 2019, 02:24 PM

Pretty bad for the Conservatives, but also bad for Labour, it's far away from the very polarised 2017 GE result. But on the other hand, it looks like trending to be more polarised on Brexit, that's a great result for the Brexit party at this early stage, less so for CUK.

Of course, no campaigning on EU elections yet but that may just hurt the Tories further, could they perhaps be coming to top EU Parliament 2014 as their worst ever election result?

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 14 2019, 10:14 AM

QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 13 2019, 03:24 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Apr 14 2019, 01:27 PM

Yes but they WILL have to call one in 2022, and it's only going to get worse for them. Recent Onward report:

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 14 2019, 01:43 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Apr 14 2019, 02:27 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Apr 14 2019, 01:47 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 14 2019, 02:43 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 14 2019, 02:58 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Apr 14 2019, 02:47 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 15 2019, 05:25 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Apr 14 2019, 02:47 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 15 2019, 07:42 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 15 2019, 06:25 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 15 2019, 10:48 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 15 2019, 08:42 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 15 2019, 11:48 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 15 2019, 11:48 AM)

Posted by: Bré Apr 15 2019, 07:30 PM

What I'm getting from that one EU election poll is that Change UK is already looking like a totally pointless failed experiment.

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 16 2019, 05:05 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 15 2019, 12:48 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 16 2019, 06:27 AM

QUOTE(Bré @ Apr 15 2019, 08:30 PM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 16 2019, 06:59 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 15 2019, 11:48 AM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 16 2019, 07:02 AM

QUOTE(Bré @ Apr 15 2019, 08:30 PM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 16 2019, 07:10 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 16 2019, 07:27 AM)

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 16 2019, 01:13 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 16 2019, 06:27 AM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 16 2019, 05:08 PM

QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 16 2019, 02:13 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 17 2019, 05:26 AM

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Apr 16 2019, 07:59 AM)

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 17 2019, 08:07 AM

And that’s what selling the LDs short in their coalition got them. No one but the DUP would consider the Tories, they killed compromise for themselves dead.

The issue is that they continued to treat a hung parliament like they were still a majority government, rather than opening themselves up to cross-party talks, until now, when the deadline has already passed.

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 17 2019, 11:26 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 17 2019, 06:26 AM)

What was the alternative then - Labour could not have formed a gov't without the DUP either, and they would also have needed *every* other opposition party too, and if you think the Tory coalition was unstable...

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 17 2019, 05:11 PM

So let's see how the Brexit Party is doing now that they've officially launched and are...oh f***:

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 17 2019, 05:35 PM

Brexit are acting as the figurehead for hard Leavers. Which is good for Farage's party, they can continue to propose the same sort of generic catch-all Brexit under a populist banner and gain votes and keep the Brexit conversations alive, no matter how unworkable any of the solutions are. That doesn't matter. They don't officially support any kind of Brexit, they don't have to, though accepting the """truth""" (big fat lie) that everyone has always supported hard Brexit won't hurt them. They're now mainstream.

The data shows Remain is still completely split, with the largest proportion still going to a party (Labour) that isn't operating under a Remain policy. Additionally, several Remain voters don't yet know who they'd support. Still a lot of room for the polls to normalise, and for campaigns to make sure that pro-Europeans don't stay home on the voting day.

Posted by: blacksquare Apr 18 2019, 09:09 AM

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 18 2019, 04:36 PM

QUOTE(blacksquare @ Apr 18 2019, 10:09 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 18 2019, 04:54 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 17 2019, 06:11 PM)

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 18 2019, 04:56 PM

Two new parties with built-in support appearing at the same time AND this election being incomparable to the last EU election in terms of voter awareness and EU interest in the country must be making it exceptionally hard to weight voting intentions properly.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 18 2019, 05:04 PM

QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 18 2019, 05:56 PM)

Posted by: Klaus Apr 18 2019, 05:23 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 18 2019, 05:54 PM)

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 19 2019, 03:25 AM

Meanwhile for the actual Remain-Leave voting intention, ComRes has this:

Posted by: Doctor Blind Apr 20 2019, 08:14 AM

Poll of Polls over the last 2 years.. some significant shifts taking place at the moment. That being the crumbling of Conservative support (at last!)

Posted by: Harve Apr 20 2019, 09:45 AM

Re: poll volatility of new, but prominent, parties. TIG/ChangeUK* have fluctuated between 18% and 1% of the vote I believe. Most polls have been in the reasonably consistent 5-8% zone, but that's intriguing indeed.

*god I cringe just typing that name out

Posted by: Harve Apr 20 2019, 10:21 AM

Meanwhile my hometown's Tory party, Derbyshire Conservatives (representing 1 million people), have refused to campaign for the EU elections. Many local associations will be tacitly on strike, but Derbyshire are wanting to make a song and a dance of it.

Being deep into Brexitland, Derbyshire is one of the few places that https://i.redd.it/ik63jcfab03z.png in 2017's election. It's an interesting area politically, with an equal split currently between the two main parties, but was overwhelmingly Labour during the Blair years. Just one Westminster seat is a safe (Tory) seat, although the ex-coal mining areas have been Labour for a century, albeit with increasingly small majorities.

They of course won't really care if 23 May is a disaster for their own party. But they surely plan to continue campaigning hard for the local elections 3 weeks before, and I can't help but feel that the EU elections will cast a shadow over these. Frustratingly we don't really get any polls for local elections, but here's hoping!

https://www.derbyshireconservatives.com/news/derbyshire-conservatives-make-views-clear-european-elections-we-will-take-no-part-them Quite telling that this rather gammony bunch are 75-80% men and all but 3 are over the age of 50. It's horribly insensitive and crass but I'd also be interested in any article that studies the correlation between a boomer's political leanings and their BMI.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Apr 20 2019, 11:05 AM

Not strictly related to Opinion Polls but the research that Onward (right leaning thinktank) did recently shows how big the problem is for the Conservatives in terms of the polarising of the electorate generationally:



Looking at just Labour and Conservative voters you can see that demographically the votes are evenly spread for Labour but are hugely skewed towards the 'Baby Boomer' generation for the Conservatives (e.g. those born after 1945 and before 1960) - this tends to be the generation that benefitted from free higher education, relatively inexpensive housing etc. - as we start to see them die off in the next 20 to 30 years it will be the millennial generation (born 1981-2000) that sways more influence and as you can see at the moment, they ain't voting Conservative.

Full report here: https://www.ukonward.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Onward-Generation-Why-online-PDF.pdf

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 20 2019, 11:17 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Apr 20 2019, 12:05 PM)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 27 2019, 08:17 PM

New Westminster opinion poll showing a party that doesn't even have any policies in 3rd in the rankings. Definitely feels like a honeymoon boost, but even so, rather interesting:

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Apr 27 2019, 09:46 PM

And on the other side of the border...

Posted by: Steve201 Apr 28 2019, 12:25 AM

Good luck to yous!

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 28 2019, 05:18 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 27 2019, 10:46 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Apr 28 2019, 08:48 AM

We already satisfy all the criteria by virtue of the fact that we currently are an EU member. Duh.

A growing number within the EU have been confirming that Scotland wouldn’t need to wait long at all. Mainly because of the sentence above.


We also don’t magically achieve freedom from what’s left of the English empire overnight. There will be a negotiation period where we sort out split of the assets and debts with Westminster that we can use to speak with the EU and arrange our way in.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 28 2019, 08:49 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 28 2019, 06:18 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 28 2019, 09:31 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 28 2019, 09:48 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 28 2019, 10:04 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 28 2019, 10:31 AM)

The think I find bizarre is that after gaining 'their freedom from the English', they immediately want to give it away to the EU.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Apr 28 2019, 10:12 AM

Every EU member state is a fully independent country capable of making its own decisions and you don't surrender sovereignty when you pool it. The UK is not pooled sovereignty. It is a colonial power dictating over what's left of its former Empire.

The UK and USSR and not in anyway equivalent to the EU.

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 28 2019, 01:29 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 28 2019, 11:12 AM)

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 28 2019, 01:41 PM

And you make it sound like the EU conquered Europe, when it was a mutual agreement to join and together direct its future formed by and aided with the cooperation of 28 of the most peaceful governments on the planet.

and the Scottish riots against the Act of Union in 1707 were far from insignificant.

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 28 2019, 05:29 PM

microphone dropped...!

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Apr 28 2019, 06:50 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 28 2019, 02:29 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 29 2019, 05:25 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 28 2019, 07:50 PM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 29 2019, 07:27 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 29 2019, 06:25 AM)

You are Nicola Sturgeon, AICMFP.

I didn't exactly see Scotland complaining when they shared in the economic opportunities of the Victorian era...

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 29 2019, 07:35 AM

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Apr 29 2019, 08:27 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 29 2019, 07:54 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 29 2019, 08:35 AM)

Well, duh! I didn't mean it in the literal sense.

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 29 2019, 08:38 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 29 2019, 08:54 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Apr 30 2019, 12:22 PM

Can we keep discussion in here to the topic of Opinion Polls please?

In keeping with the theme of recent weeks.. this poll from YouGov shows that the Brexit Party have in the public's opinion a clear stance, but that the recently formed Change UK has a way to go yet with as many as 44% not sure. This is clearly a massive missed opportunity and probably an own-goal with respect to killing off a potential 2nd referendum when/if The Brexit Party establish a clear lead in the EU elections.

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 30 2019, 12:57 PM

Who are the 3% that think the Brexit Party is anti-Brexit? It’s like that opinion poll a few years ago where 4% of people said they had been decapitated.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Apr 30 2019, 02:05 PM

On the same measure. What rock are people living under if they think the SNP or the LD or Greens or PC are pro-Brexit?

Posted by: vidcapper Apr 30 2019, 03:32 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 30 2019, 03:05 PM)

Posted by: Iz~ Apr 30 2019, 03:57 PM

The interesting takeaway from that poll is that far more people seem to view Labour as an anti-Brexit party... when they're not. They're struggling to agree on whether a second referendum is necessary (meanwhile the complete Conservative split is mildly funny)

The other thing is that Lib Dems being only at 53% is far worse than they should be hoping for, even disregarding that UKIP and Brexit stances should be fairly self-explanatory, the idea would be to be level with about where the SNP currently are.

Posted by: Bré Apr 30 2019, 04:41 PM

I'm more confused at 5% of people thinking UKIP is anti-Brexit. And less people knowing about UKIP's stance in general than the Brexit Party.

Posted by: Popchartfreak Apr 30 2019, 07:41 PM

I think what we can take away from that poll is that unless the clue is in the name a large proportion of the population havent a clue, and even when the clue is IN the name 25% of people STILL haven't a clue.

Which all goes to show that about half the population is ripe for any old piece of tat, you could tell them Martians are invading and they'd ring up in panic. Sounds unlikely? Errr it happened, see Orson Welles radio broadcast of War Of The Worlds....

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 30 2019, 08:32 PM

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Apr 30 2019, 08:41 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Apr 30 2019, 09:01 PM

'Ever since I first learned about confirmation bias I've been seeing it everywhere'...

Posted by: Suedehead2 Apr 30 2019, 09:04 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Apr 30 2019, 10:01 PM)

'Ever since I first learned about confirmation bias I've been seeing it everywhere'...

Posted by: Brett-Butler Apr 30 2019, 09:06 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Apr 30 2019, 10:01 PM)

'Ever since I first learned about confirmation bias I've been seeing it everywhere'...

Posted by: vidcapper May 1 2019, 04:55 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 30 2019, 09:32 PM)

Posted by: Popchartfreak May 1 2019, 06:54 AM

errrr the principle applies, there were a few hundreds of concerned calls to the radio stations. People widely believe the moon landings were faked. the flat earth society is very much a thing, the numbers of people claiming to have been kidnapped by aliens is a virtual army (as mentioned by Vidcapper), many millions of people believe Donald Trump is not a liar despite video evidence to the contrary....

People, and I'm sorry to say it, can be persuaded to believe any old piece of fake crap even when it clearly challenges reality and science. The evidence is everywhere - or else I've fallen victim to the same confirmation bias. I haven't. I didn't say they ran screaming into the streets....

Posted by: vidcapper May 1 2019, 09:05 AM

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ May 1 2019, 07:54 AM)

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn May 1 2019, 10:04 AM

Who remembers the spaghetti tree hoax?

Posted by: Brett-Butler May 1 2019, 10:17 AM

QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ May 1 2019, 11:04 AM)

Who remembers the spaghetti tree hoax?

Posted by: Suedehead2 May 1 2019, 10:22 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 1 2019, 10:05 AM)

He's in politics, so he's a liar, period.

AS for the others, I just laugh at them.

Posted by: Doctor Blind May 11 2019, 05:22 PM

Huge lead for Nigel Farage's Brexit Party in the latest poll from OpiniumResearch.

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 34% (+6)
LAB: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 12% (+5)
CON: 11% (-3)
GRN: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-4)

via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

Posted by: vidcapper May 12 2019, 04:59 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 1 2019, 11:22 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 May 12 2019, 08:54 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 12 2019, 05:59 AM)

Posted by: Botchia May 12 2019, 09:40 AM

Posted by: Iz~ May 12 2019, 09:59 AM

SURGE

I mean it's totally wishful thinking as an election would never occur under those conditions but that is a beautiful map.

Posted by: Harve May 12 2019, 10:18 AM

I wouldn't pay much attention to Westminster polling until a fair time after the Euros have ended. And FPBE seat projections are always going to be very tricky and incredibly interesting under unprecedented circumstances. A party on 15-20% of the vote could get hundreds of seats or barely any at all.

Posted by: Harve May 12 2019, 10:21 AM

But of course while the exact numbers are fickle, we can't deny the broad trends of the Tories being in dire straits and Labour not much better.

Posted by: Harve May 12 2019, 05:30 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 11 2019, 06:22 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind May 12 2019, 05:48 PM

Unfortunately I can see the Brexit Party winning this by quite a clear margin.

The anti-Politics feeling is also being fuelled and stoked up by Change UK but they still seem to be languishing in the doldrums.

Posted by: Rooney May 12 2019, 05:57 PM

But the Brexit Party just plays on the emotions associated - you know what you're getting despite the fact it's going to be like your worst nightmare.

I feel the Remain vote is way too split.

Posted by: Doctor Blind May 12 2019, 09:37 PM

COMRES poll (with European seat projections):

BXP 27% (+27)
Lab 25% (-)
LD 14% (+7)
Con 13% (-11)
Grn 8% (-)
ChUK 6% (+6)
SNP 4% (+2)
UKIP 3% (-25)

My seat estimate
BXP 24 (+24)
Lab 21 (+1)
LD 10 (+9)
Con 8 (-11)
Grn 2 (-1)
SNP 2 (-)
UKIP 2 (-22)
PC 1 (-)
ChUK 0 (-)

A Grn/LD/ChUK and SNP coalition would be around 2 pt ahead of BXP/UKIP.

Posted by: Doctor Blind May 18 2019, 05:14 PM

Westminster voting intention (via @HanburyStrategy,):

Lab 30% (-11)
Con 21% (-23)
BXP 19% (+19)
LD 13% (+5)
ChUK 6% (+6)
Grn 5% (+3)
SNP 4% (+1)
UKIP 2% (-)

Projected Seat estimate
Lab 314 (+52)
Con 224 (-93)
SNP 53 (+18)
LD 35 (+23)
BXP 0 (-)
ChUK 0 (-)
Oth 24 (-)


*.*

Posted by: vidcapper May 19 2019, 05:12 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 18 2019, 06:14 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 May 19 2019, 08:27 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 19 2019, 06:12 AM)

Two things -

No majority for Lab even with a 9% lead.
No seats for BXP even with 19% of the vote.

Posted by: Steve201 May 19 2019, 10:55 AM

Mental that 19% of the vote can still give you 0-5 seats max. Shows how the vote spread is important!!

Posted by: Doctor Blind May 19 2019, 12:21 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 19 2019, 11:55 AM)

Posted by: Harve May 19 2019, 12:49 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 19 2019, 01:21 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 May 19 2019, 12:53 PM

Is the increase back to 2015 levels for the SNP due to the Brexit situation. I got the general feeling that their support was on the wane(or plateux at least) maybe at devolved level at least.

Posted by: Doctor Blind May 19 2019, 01:06 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 19 2019, 01:53 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner May 19 2019, 06:20 PM

Ruthie had a very successful catch phrase in “no indyref2” (no actual policies of course) which did what it was designed to do an get unionists to vote tactically. The SNP actually got more votes in 2016 than in 2011. Their council vote is higher than ever as well. They’ve got on with the day job while being a clear and consistent voice against Brexit. Their support isn’t going anywhere.

Davidson like to mouth off that she will be the next FM but they’re not even on half the level of support of the SNP on a bad poll for the SNP. On a good day, Ruth has about 45% of the level of support that Nicola has.

Posted by: Suedehead2 May 19 2019, 08:33 PM

Given how long they have been in power in Scotland (including the period when they were propped up by the Tories), the SNP are doing very well at the moment. They have made themselves the leading pro-Remain party in Scotland, well ahead of the Lib Dems and Greens. Whether that translates into a majority for independence remains to be seen.

Posted by: Botchia May 30 2019, 08:11 PM

Leaked poll due to come out shortly has Lib Dems now in the lead on 24%!! Followed by Brexit and then Labour and Tories on 19% each.

Lib Dems *.*

Posted by: Suedehead2 May 30 2019, 08:40 PM

If the rumoured figures are confirmed, electoral calculus shows the Lib Dems first in the popular vote but fourth un seats. Labour, joint third in the popular vote would have the most seats. Welcome to First Past The Post.

Posted by: Brett-Butler May 30 2019, 09:41 PM

Confirmation:

Posted by: Botchia May 30 2019, 09:58 PM

This feels like such a moment for the Lib Dems!

Posted by: Botchia May 30 2019, 10:05 PM

So it's the first time Lib Dems have led in a Westminster poll since YouGov's own back in April 2010(!)

And just like that the coalition years are a distant memory *.*

Posted by: Bré May 30 2019, 10:49 PM

The next election is going to be seriously spicy.

Posted by: Envoirment May 30 2019, 11:57 PM

Come on Lib Dems!! *_* The Greens on 8% as well... Now if only that could translate into enough seats for a Green/SNP/Lib Dem coalition of sorts. I'm hoping the Conseratives and Labour will continue to fall. I think people are finally realising they have the power to completely change the stagnant Con-Labour governments. A lot of people think you're wasting a vote by not voting for Lab or Con, so glad to see that changing significantly.

Hopefully the next leader of the Lib Dems will be able to carry this momentum forward.

Posted by: Iz~ May 31 2019, 12:38 AM

I couldn't even begin to imagine how an election would look under that poll. Of course it does mean that the new PM won't even think about having one unless forced to by a VoNC, I've seen reports that suggest the Conservatives would get obliterated down to under 100 seats, which I'm very sceptical would ever happen but, not a good time to be a new Tory PM.

Posted by: vidcapper May 31 2019, 05:12 AM

I suspect a lot of people will revert to their traditional allegiences by the time the next GE comes around.

Posted by: Popchartfreak May 31 2019, 07:02 AM

you're assuming there wont be a GE in the next few months and that Brexit will be sorted one way or the other. With a NO Deal PM they may not have a choice - Parliament wont allow it, so that means either a referendum or a GE. Either way whatever the result half the country is going to be pissed off and vote against the Tory Party for what they've done. Boris Johnson is not the Messiah and Saviour if half the country still believes ending No Deal Brexit is the answer to all our current woes, such as mass closures of Doctors surgeries - the CBI has just said it will harm small businesses, which means we all get poorer and die sooner.

So, Corbyn, hard-brexit new Tory PM, and suddenly Jo Swinson looks fresh and trustworthy in comparison if she wins the Libdem election.

Posted by: Botchia May 31 2019, 12:48 PM

Jo Swinson is the candidate to keep building the momentum. I have nothing against Ed Davey but I can see the Lib Dems having a greater risk of plateauing under his leadership!

Posted by: Steve201 May 31 2019, 06:38 PM

Yeh Swinson would be a much better leader amongst the general public.

Remember JC was 23% at the start of the last GE campaign so things change a lot and if Brexit is done before any election it'll change dramatically too.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Jun 1 2019, 03:14 PM

This bounce back is very much an English narrative which is particularly risky for Jo as she stands in a Scottish seat that she's already lost once before to the SNP.

Posted by: Popchartfreak Jun 1 2019, 04:59 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Jun 1 2019, 04:14 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Jun 1 2019, 07:30 PM

The EU election vote in her constituency had her nearly 10% behind the SNP. And westminster polling has the SNP on track to win way back up into the 50s seat wise and that makes her seat vulnerable. They did nothing in the Locals here, the fightback is to a much lower level in Scotland as well. If you're a remainer there is really only one party worth backing in Scotland and it sure ain't the LibDems.


She's already high-profile. Being the LibDem leader won't change the profile she has in her constituency. Just because little englanders don't know who she is doesn't mean that on the good side of hadrians wall she's just as anonymous.

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jun 1 2019, 08:00 PM

The latest Banter Era opinion poll:

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jun 3 2019, 08:53 PM

The Electoral Calculus site is a sobering read today... !

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jun 3 2019, 09:19 PM

If it does indeed become apparent that the Labour/Conservative duopoly is under threat by the two being cut off by Brexit Party/Lib Dems on both sides thanks to that whole EU thing, then we could see Hades becoming glacial and the LabCon MPs suddenly becoming warmer to the idea of PR, as it could save their bottoms from losing their seats. Well, one can hope.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jun 16 2019, 03:19 PM

Latest YouGov- would be interesting to see this tested in a GE, but I think things will have changed quite a bit by 2022 IMO.

Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 24% (-2)
CON: 21% (+4)
LAB: 21% (+2)
LDEM: 19% (-3)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Jun

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jun 16 2019, 04:04 PM

We're still in the banter era then, I see.

Whether the Brexit Party are still in that position come the end of the year/likely General Election remains to be seen - it depends on what happens in regards to Brexit in the next few months - if it looks like there will be a managed exit, then they will collapse a la UKIP following the initiation of Article 50. If there's no progress, or there's another delay, or Brexit is cancelled (could still happen!), then they will continue to grow in support. I do think their support will fall in opinion polls over the next few months whilst parliament is in recess and Brexit doesn't feature as much on the agenda, but come September it could creep up again as the October deadline nears again.

Posted by: vidcapper Jul 4 2019, 05:00 AM

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7211387/Labour-support-time-low-18-cent-according-poll-bad-Gordon-Brown-2008-crash.html

Corbyn takes Labour to ALL-TIME polling low: Just 18% would vote for the party in a general election as they slump to fourth place
Labour dropped 2 points since last week behind Tories 24% and Brexit Party 23%
Corbyn's ratings are so low they have dropped behind the Lib Dems on 20%
Growing discontent on Brexit position and leader's stance on anti-Semitism

************

The polls are so ridiculously volatile at the moment, that I wonder why anyone bothers taking them...

Posted by: Suedehead2 Jul 4 2019, 06:12 AM

They are a bit all over the place, but the general trend suggests a four-way tie. Under FPTP, that males things very unpredictable.

Posted by: Envoirment Jul 4 2019, 10:59 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jul 4 2019, 07:12 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Jul 5 2019, 04:56 AM

QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jul 4 2019, 11:59 PM)

Posted by: Harve Jul 5 2019, 05:15 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jul 5 2019, 05:56 AM)

How exactly?

The Greens could only contribute 1 or 2 MP's, the SNP maybe 50, so no way could the LD's muster 270-ish from just 20% of the popular vote...

Posted by: vidcapper Jul 5 2019, 05:46 AM

QUOTE(Harve @ Jul 5 2019, 06:15 AM)

Posted by: Iz~ Jul 5 2019, 07:26 AM

That is the ‘traditional’ way of thinking, sure, but with LDs and Brexit gaining support, who’s to say what are safe seats? Labour and Conservative tribalists will have you believe that to ensure they keep their holds but a balance upset by too many supporters from the other two COULD make seats go to very unexpected places.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jul 12 2019, 09:02 PM

Survation latest poll:


LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

(changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

Posted by: Brett-Butler Jul 27 2019, 08:15 PM

The first post-Boris opinion poll is out. As expected, a big bump to the Conservatives at the expense of the Brexit Party, although I imagine that the polls will calm down post-summer recess.

Posted by: Bré Jul 28 2019, 02:31 AM

Another poll has come out that has CON +10 and BXP -10. Really worried that we're going to get an early election that results in a huge Tory majority. But then that's what we thought would happen the last time there was an early election so...

Posted by: vidcapper Jul 28 2019, 05:13 AM

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7293197/Boris-Johnson-gets-bounce-Poll-finds-10-rise-support-Tories-PM.html

Boris Johnson gets his bounce: Poll finds 10% rise in support for Tories with him as PM - but delaying an election boosts Labour if party ditches Jeremy Corbyn

The surge in support has given the Conservatives a five-point lead over Labour
But if Labour ditched Corbyn, the Tories would trail them by six points
The rise corresponds to a ten-point fall for Nigel Farage's Brexit Party
Some 55 per cent think there will be an Election by the end of the year
The poll came as Mr Johnson's majority could be wiped out by next week

Posted by: Steve201 Jul 28 2019, 07:44 AM

I don't really know how anyone could predict a lead for labour if JC wasn't leader without knowing who the leader would be lol??

Posted by: vidcapper Jul 28 2019, 08:27 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jul 28 2019, 08:44 AM)

Posted by: Rooney Jul 28 2019, 11:36 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jul 28 2019, 09:27 AM)

How about on the 'ANYTHING'S better than Corbyn' basis...

I'd certainly be more likely to vote Labour without Corbyn in charge.

Posted by: Steve201 Jul 28 2019, 01:40 PM

I think JC has proven that he can put forward a manifesto for change in 2017, it's about building on that. So the ideology doesn't look to be the issue.

Posted by: vidcapper Jul 28 2019, 01:59 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jul 28 2019, 02:40 PM)

Posted by: Rooney Jul 28 2019, 02:20 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jul 28 2019, 02:40 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Jul 28 2019, 02:30 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jul 28 2019, 02:59 PM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Jul 28 2019, 02:48 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jul 28 2019, 03:30 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Jul 28 2019, 05:56 PM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Jul 28 2019, 03:48 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Jul 29 2019, 07:56 AM

Posted by: Steve201 Jul 29 2019, 08:40 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Jul 29 2019, 08:56 AM)

Posted by: Steve201 Jul 29 2019, 08:41 AM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Jul 28 2019, 03:20 PM)

Posted by: Harve Jul 30 2019, 03:05 PM

BJ's poll bounce is smaller than May's so far, but it has scope to go higher as something like 70-80% of the remaining BXP voters, 15% of likely voters, have a favourable opinion of BJ.

The overall Tory + BXP + UKIP total is at a maximum of around 45%, which is smaller than the 55% Tory + UKIP total that May inherited in 2016.

Posted by: Trump2020 Jul 31 2019, 08:29 PM

Boris opens up 10 point lead.

Source: Daily Mail. YouGov

Tories 32%
Labour 22%
Lib Dems 19%

Down to rise in male support apparently.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Jul 31 2019, 08:53 PM

Well there will be an electoral test of that lead tomorrow in Wales where he was on Tuesday being 'welcomed' by the locals, in the Brecon and Radnorshire By-election

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 1 2019, 04:53 AM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jul 31 2019, 09:53 PM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 1 2019, 06:40 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 1 2019, 05:53 AM)

It would have been far more surprising if he had been cheered...

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Aug 1 2019, 07:00 AM

Why? What has he done to earn that respect?

Posted by: Popchartfreak Aug 1 2019, 12:26 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Jul 29 2019, 09:41 AM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 1 2019, 03:27 PM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Aug 1 2019, 08:00 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Aug 1 2019, 05:09 PM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 1 2019, 04:27 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 2 2019, 04:37 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 1 2019, 06:09 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Aug 2 2019, 01:18 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 2 2019, 05:37 AM)

On that basis, NO politician deserves respect.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 2 2019, 09:01 PM

What a load! Survation still has Labour leading. It's absolutely SHOCKING that so many would vote for Bojo and his shower of shite far right government! I just could not imagine supporting the Tories. All of their lies have been exposed. There is no excuse. They want to privatise the NHS, don't care about the poor, and are devious, spiteful and hateful. Get them OUT. NO respect for Bojo. This right wing talking point of show him respect that I keep seeing is LAUGHABLE. We have had this government for ten years. We know what they're like. We know what that buffoon is like. OUT!!!

Also, Labour is NOT extreme left. Labour is moderate European left of centre. Renationalising the NHS, our vital infrastructure, our services such as police and fire and rescue, and readdressing the rise of plutocracy, should not be seen as extreme. Ever. The only reason people think these moderate, very typical, policies are, is due to successive right wing governments and an extremely right wing media moving the Overton window.

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 3 2019, 04:40 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 2 2019, 02:18 PM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 3 2019, 07:30 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 2 2019, 02:18 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Aug 3 2019, 08:14 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 3 2019, 05:40 AM)

The Leader of the Opposition?

Posted by: Steve201 Aug 3 2019, 09:41 AM

JC has pretty much had the same views his whole career which is a strength and weakness!

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 3 2019, 10:43 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 3 2019, 05:40 AM)

The Leader of the Opposition?

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 3 2019, 12:44 PM

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 30% (+3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (-3)
BREX: 15% (-1)
GRN: 5% (+1)

via @ComRes, 26 - 28 Jul
Chgs. w/ 25 Jul

Oh, well look at that! It makes me to see y'all quoting ToryGov as a respectable source on hur! Survation and ComRes have Labour clearly ahead. Landed Gentry Etonian aristocrat pocket politician blustering buffoon Bojo is going to get SMASHED.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Aug 14 2019, 12:09 PM

Public opinion appears to be moving towards remain - and certainly AWAY from leaving without a deal.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 14 2019, 12:26 PM

The Torygraph have tried, with Cumming's permission and strategy of course, to create a counter narrative saying people want no deal xD They didn't mention the fact that Bojo has had secret talks asking the eu how long to start a deal after no deal, and that no deal with an entire continent we've aleays needed is ridiculous. It won't just disappear because the brexshitters want it to.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Aug 14 2019, 01:12 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 14 2019, 01:26 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 14 2019, 01:55 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 14 2019, 02:12 PM)

Posted by: Rooney Aug 14 2019, 06:32 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Aug 14 2019, 01:09 PM)

Public opinion appears to be moving towards remain - and certainly AWAY from leaving without a deal.

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 20 2019, 05:16 AM

New blow for Labour as poll shows voters would prefer a No Deal Brexit than for Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/17/48-35-britons-would-rather-have-no-deal-and-no-cor

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 20 2019, 10:23 AM

Lol yeah no.

Posted by: Iz O'Malley Aug 20 2019, 12:40 PM

To add a more nuanced perspective, that's a terrible poll question comparing two different categories of outcome, and excluding several possibilities, Corbyn isn't even necessarily popular among all Remainers.

Posted by: Brett-Butler Aug 21 2019, 05:04 PM

Oh my (note that this opinion poll doesn't offer Brexit Party or Green Party as a prompt):

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 21 2019, 05:11 PM

Survation actually only put Bojo the Clown on 28% and Lab 24%. Beggars BELIEF some people just believe whatever propaganda they're given. With how far right his government is, there is literally no reason for the brexshit party. Rhat means Labour shouls go full remain and make an electoral pact with all remain parties.

Posted by: blacksquare Aug 21 2019, 05:32 PM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Aug 21 2019, 06:04 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 21 2019, 06:01 PM

The far right have mobilised brexshit as an issue to get widespread support, even though brexshit only benefits the 1%

Posted by: Iz O'Malley Aug 21 2019, 07:39 PM

!

So, many things to say, it could be aimed at politicians, prompting safer ground for Boris for an election (with echoes of 2017), it could be a really weird outlier, it could be the current labour/lib dem spat which is entirely pointless and counterproductive, it could be due to the Conservatives temporarily in the good books of hardline Brexiteers with an angling towards no deal (as clearly more of those numbers are from lost Brexit Party votes), I don't know what exactly to make of that quite honestly.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Aug 21 2019, 07:43 PM

That’s also 3 months from the last poll by that company. So I’d be asking similar questions about that last one. Like how reliable are they, WBA’s their methodology, do the use non-standard questions.

Irregular polls can show big swings vs a more frequent one so I’ll take this with a container ship load of salt until comres/yougov et al publish their latest poll

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 22 2019, 05:11 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Aug 21 2019, 08:43 PM)

Posted by: Iz O'Malley Aug 22 2019, 08:03 AM

I've had a further look at that poll from Kantar, and the same research that gave that Conservative 42% poll shows this:

https://uk.kantar.com/public-opinion/politics/2019/brexit-barometer-more-than-half-of-britons-are-in-favour-of-any-final-deal-or-agreement-reached-by-the-government-being-put-to-a-public-referendum/

(one can find information about their methodology at the bottom of that page)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 22 2019, 10:09 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 22 2019, 06:11 AM)

Some people even take elections/referenda with a pinch of salt...

Posted by: mald487 Aug 22 2019, 11:36 AM

Like I said before, let them have their rude awakening. I will sit back and laugh from a distance.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 22 2019, 12:09 PM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Aug 22 2019, 12:36 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 22 2019, 01:33 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 22 2019, 11:09 AM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Aug 22 2019, 05:50 PM

And they did. And their votes were completely ignored.

It is an undeniable fact that the older you are the more likely you were to vote for it and the youth, with the most to lose, votes to remain by a considerable amount.

Anything that impacts the long-term future of a country should be weighted in favour of those who have to bare the majority of the consequences. A massive chunk of the Brexit vote is already f***ing dead and another big chunk will be dead before the day we eventually leave

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 22 2019, 06:00 PM

Vould under 18s vote? No? Do Scotland and NI or even Wales COMBINED have a population total equivalent to England's? Whaat no??? Oh. Was Scotland told the only way it could remain in the EU was to stay a part of the landed gentry, Etonian-run UK? It was you say? Oh.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 22 2019, 06:02 PM

Also please explain how a teeny tiny majority on a SECOND referendum, and a non-binding one at that, in a parliamentary democracy where sovereignty resides in the crown in parliament, is enough? Surely it should be enough - at an absolute PUSH - for a softer than soft single market brexshit at best? That's without even mentioning AGAIN that leave campaigned on a single market, Norway style platform. They didn't mention that Norway would not accept them into that agreement, but oops. They didn't mention a lot of things.

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 23 2019, 05:40 AM

QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Aug 22 2019, 06:50 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 23 2019, 11:08 AM

Except this is a LONG TERM major decision. The youth should take point. And they said no to brexshit. Sorry Otherwise, we get a situation like ww do now - the oldies are dying off and the polls have already swung away from the original result! Not that 51% or 27% of the population is a major rrsult that has to be carried out anyway.

Yes and their votes are completely trampled by Lil England, treating them like colonies, overpowrring them through size, rather than treating them as they are: countries that need to be respected.

Posted by: TheJüpreme Aug 23 2019, 11:15 AM

Out of interest, watching from the outside I'm fascinated to have watched the English/UK media manage to shift the view of Mr Corbyn - who seems to me literalky the stereotype of an inoffensive older English man who likes gardening and is generally friendly & well-meaning - into this bizarre fearmongering image that I don't recognise in the guy at all.

What's up with that? Does anyone here who's not rabidly rightwing have an opinion on that? Like I genuinely am confused at his unpopularity with so many in the UK when he seems to be basically the nice British person stereotype that the UK has over the years tried to sell to the rest of the world. (While Boris and a lot of his Cabinet also appear like stereotypical English villain characters in the style of e.g. a Bond film) It seems from the outside like a really strange distortion of reality.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 23 2019, 11:20 AM

That is bescause we have a mainstream one party state media. The papers and Murdoch set the agenda with the Tories - and the tv, especially BBtory, usually just follows. Once the Tories are in, they do not easily get out. They control the media and create stupid, ministry of truth narratives. Corbyn has been everything from a communist spy to a russian-hat-wearing russia lover to a pet hamster hunter And people like Chris and vidcapper eat it all up!

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 23 2019, 11:27 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 23 2019, 12:08 PM)

Except this is a LONG TERM major decision. The youth should take point. And they said no to brexshit. Sorry Otherwise, we get a situation like ww do now - the oldies are dying off and the polls have already swung away from the original result! Not that 51% or 27% of the population is a major rrsult that has to be carried out anyway.

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 23 2019, 11:29 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 23 2019, 12:20 PM)

That is bescause we have a mainstream one party state media. The papers and Murdoch set the agenda with the Tories - and the tv, especially BBtory, usually just follows. Once the Tories are in, they do not easily get out. They control the media and create stupid, ministry of truth narratives. Corbyn has been everything from a communist spy to a russian-hat-wearing russia lover to a pet hamster hunter And people like Chris and vidcapper eat it all up!

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 23 2019, 11:38 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 23 2019, 11:39 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 23 2019, 12:29 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Aug 23 2019, 12:03 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 23 2019, 12:29 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 23 2019, 12:15 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Aug 23 2019, 01:03 PM)

Posted by: Iz O'Malley Aug 23 2019, 12:59 PM

Re: Jupiter, that is an accurate perception of what Corbyn should be, my main issue with him is given the cartoonish villainy of the Tories he hasn’t quite been the hero we hoped for, which is nothing compared to the bizarre painting the media have of his incompetence (quite obviously because they’d have a lot to lose under a Corbyn premiership and they get to control the narrative).

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 23 2019, 01:45 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Aug 23 2019, 01:03 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Aug 23 2019, 02:52 PM

The whole Anti-Sem issues is of grave concern but there is an element of right wing media hyping it up a lot. Most of the left who spout out A-S nonsense are the idiot fringes and JC has continually opposed rascism in all its forms. He cannot do something about every on line troll who spouts it out in Labours name.

With regards to the second article - give me strength - how dare JC have a different economic and foreign policy point of view to the last 2 generations in the UK. I mean NATO itself nearly got us into a war with Putin over their expansion in Ukraine so I think its too influenced by the USA and CIA!

The same people said these things about SF in Ireland only 25 years ago but hey look the British were talking to the IRA at the same time and look what happens when you talk to marginalised groups - they join the democratic process and Ireland is a much better country for it.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 23 2019, 02:53 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Aug 23 2019, 03:52 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 24 2019, 04:58 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 23 2019, 03:53 PM)

Posted by: Rooney Aug 24 2019, 08:47 AM

QUOTE(TheJüpreme @ Aug 23 2019, 12:15 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Aug 24 2019, 09:32 AM

But he doesn't want to nationalise a load of businesses he wants to nationalise monopolies that are in the public interest to nationalise such as water/electric/public transport and there has been seen to be genuine public support for this. People aren't being given a fair turn by privatised utilities which everyone needs and has s right to for a fair price. He's not looking to nationalise Ryanair or Boots chemist like.

You also act like capitalisms in place so it can't be reversed - the same was true 70 and 100 years ago but people see the inequalities it brings and are disgusted by this.

I believe people want a free society but also a FAIR one and regulations are needed to ensure the minority of racketeers in society play a fair game.

As for Vids point - JC one a decent coalition of 40% on a fair democratic socialist platform in 2017 so it is possible. The electoral coalition won by Blair in 1997 has moved on and we live in a different time now.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 24 2019, 09:56 AM

QUOTE(Rooney @ Aug 24 2019, 09:47 AM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 25 2019, 03:33 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 23 2019, 12:08 PM)

Except this is a LONG TERM major decision. The youth should take point. And they said no to brexshit. Sorry Otherwise, we get a situation like ww do now - the oldies are dying off and the polls have already swung away from the original result! Not that 51% or 27% of the population is a major rrsult that has to be carried out anyway.

Yes and their votes are completely trampled by Lil England, treating them like colonies, overpowrring them through size, rather than treating them as they are: countries that need to be respected.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 25 2019, 03:39 PM

THE RESULT WAS NOT OUT. THE RESULT WAS ... WHO KNOWS?! It was a 50 50 split in numbers and countries and the youth, the DECISIND FSCTOR, decided to stay. Sorry. The end.

You lost get over it. NEVER USE THAT RIDICULOUS BRAINDEAD ARGUMENT AGAINST ME EEEVER AGAIN. HOW DARE YIU INSULT OUR INTELLIGENCE USING IT?!

The last person who shut down parliament caused a civil war and was soon out of power. So please. If you shut down parliament, you guess what? LOSE CONTROL. Parliament is sovereign. If Bojo shuts it down, then guess what? He comes a FAR RIGHT DICTATOR. Not that you'd care. You'd still doff your cap and look up with big puppy dog eyes at a right wing authoritarian male figure.

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 25 2019, 03:40 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 25 2019, 04:39 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 25 2019, 03:44 PM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 25 2019, 04:40 PM)

Sorry but last time I checked the UK voted to leave the EU. END OF.

Posted by: Izzy Aug 25 2019, 03:55 PM

It does take a special kind of effort to sound madder than Chris when he unleashes Uneducated Brexit Bravado (August 2019 edition) but you managed it.

Keep the quality up and knock this awful discourse off please. Though welcome for mods to delete as this has got quite off-topic.

Posted by: TheJüpreme Aug 25 2019, 04:26 PM

Its not just the youth vs the elderly, its educated vs un too.

Wonder which ones will be able to leave when it all goes tits up. At this point its kind of hilarious to see who is supporting it being exactly who have not a lot of strings to the bow if things go bad. Those who rely on state support cheering to impoverish the state...interesting flex tbh

Posted by: mald487 Aug 25 2019, 07:25 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 25 2019, 03:39 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 25 2019, 07:28 PM

I actually think the hardcore extremist Brexshitters will start to claim that whatever shortages, etc, happen is exactly what they voted for. They'll neeever admit they were wrong. Far right dictator shutting down parlisment? Wahey finally in full control! Food shortages? That's alright - they wanted to show some "blitz spirit" and now they get the chance! No feesh fruit? They wanted to grow some anyway. And on and on and on.

Posted by: mald487 Aug 26 2019, 03:54 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 25 2019, 07:28 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 26 2019, 04:15 PM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Aug 26 2019, 04:54 PM)

Oh totally. There will be many of them that will claim that they knew all of this was going to happen and it's fine. We already know from observation(see Vidcappers comments) that they are planning to blame Remainers for "talking down Britain" when(YES...WHEN....NOT IF) the s£ht hits the fan. They've already got their excuses lined up.

You really couldn't make any of it up. It's nuts and to be honest on a world stage.....it's very embarrassing. Yet somehow all of these countries around the world are desperate to do brand spanking new trades deals with us. Oh I'm sure...what with all of the things that we manufacture( ). After all it's not like we've just left a major trading bloc of 28 countries.... It's not like we will be the ones in the negotiation that will need it more than any country that we negotiate with, hence we will be the ones at an immediate disadvantage....OH WAIT.

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 26 2019, 04:22 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 25 2019, 08:28 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 26 2019, 04:31 PM

Oh my GOD

Can't you brexshitter extremists just go live out a dystopian fantasy on one of the unoccupied islands? We'll continur living to a 21st century european standard x You can tske the landed gentry party with you as you go x

Posted by: mald487 Aug 26 2019, 04:54 PM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 26 2019, 04:22 PM)

Posted by: Rooney Aug 26 2019, 05:09 PM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 26 2019, 05:22 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 27 2019, 05:10 AM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Aug 26 2019, 05:54 PM)

Posted by: mald487 Aug 27 2019, 09:56 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 27 2019, 05:10 AM)

You mean 'the jobs that won't exist because of Brexit reducing our economy to 3rd world levels'

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 27 2019, 10:30 AM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Aug 27 2019, 10:56 AM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 27 2019, 11:22 PM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Aug 26 2019, 05:54 PM)

Posted by: Trump2020 Aug 27 2019, 11:27 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 27 2019, 11:30 AM)

Posted by: mald487 Aug 27 2019, 11:39 PM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 27 2019, 11:27 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 28 2019, 01:02 AM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 28 2019, 12:27 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 28 2019, 04:50 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 28 2019, 02:02 AM)

Posted by: Izzy Aug 28 2019, 08:31 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Aug 28 2019, 04:50 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 28 2019, 08:32 AM

Newsflash: capitalism just rebranded it. Newsflash: the Tory landed gentry are the same families. They have clung on to power and people still keep doffin their caps.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Aug 28 2019, 09:08 AM

QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 28 2019, 12:27 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Aug 28 2019, 09:10 AM

QUOTE(Izzy @ Aug 28 2019, 09:31 AM)

Posted by: Esmerelda Sep 14 2019, 08:44 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 37% (+2)
LAB: 25% (-)
LDEM: 16% (-1)
BREX: 13% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

via
@OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 06 Sep

Good grief! Seems the worse Boris is the more he is liked...

Posted by: Steve201 Sep 14 2019, 11:41 PM

Showing himself off as being a strong leader who wants to push through Brexit at any cost goes down well with voters who are Brexit at any cost and those more moderate who just want it decided upon!

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 14 2019, 11:48 PM

Why are you quoting the outlier?

All others have Labour way in front, including internal no.10 polls

Posted by: Izzy Sep 15 2019, 02:10 AM

Oh yes, I do like the ComRes one where Labour has a lead of -1.

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 15 2019, 04:43 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 15 2019, 12:48 AM)

Why are you quoting the outlier?

All others have Labour way in front, including internal no.10 polls

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 15 2019, 09:37 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 15 2019, 12:48 AM)

Why are you quoting the outlier?

All others have Labour way in front, including internal no.10 polls

Posted by: Brett-Butler Sep 15 2019, 10:20 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Sep 15 2019, 12:41 AM)

Posted by: mald487 Sep 15 2019, 02:34 PM

The polls aren´t surprising at all(unfortunately IMO). Most people accept that Brexit is happening and just want it over with now regardless of how they voted and see Boris as far more likely to carry it through than Corbyn. What most people aren´t thinking about however, is the aftermath

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 15 2019, 03:13 PM

Again, ONE outlier vs the rest of the polling data that shows the end of the Tory party x

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 15 2019, 03:31 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 15 2019, 04:13 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 15 2019, 04:52 PM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Sep 15 2019, 03:34 PM)

The polls aren´t surprising at all(unfortunately IMO). Most people accept that Brexit is happening and just want it over with now regardless of how they voted and see Boris as far more likely to carry it through than Corbyn. What most people aren´t thinking about however, is the aftermath

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 15 2019, 05:05 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 15 2019, 04:31 PM)

The power of wishful thinking...

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 16 2019, 04:57 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 15 2019, 06:05 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 16 2019, 08:43 AM

Quite well thanks. The opposition has a lot more mps than the weak and wobbly chaotic disco citizens party x

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 16 2019, 08:57 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 16 2019, 09:43 AM)

Posted by: Izzy Sep 19 2019, 04:04 AM

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 19 2019, 04:33 AM

QUOTE(Izzy @ Sep 19 2019, 05:04 AM)

Posted by: Izzy Sep 19 2019, 04:56 AM

If you want to go back to that halcyon period where the B-word didn't dominate all political discussion, vote Lib Dem to get out of it

(estimated time only 1 year, other parties all offer 10 years or more)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 19 2019, 10:45 AM

ComRes

28% Evil rich party
27% Labour for the people
20% Yellow Tories

After Oct 1st the Tories will collapse, plus the impartiality laws in an election to stop the massive anti Labour bias, Corbyn's campaigning, and it's a done deal. Fiiinally a Labour government! We've been waiting so many years for a party that isn't neoliberal!!

Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 26 2019, 09:42 AM

Latest Survation:

CON: 27% (-2)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 22% (+4)
BREX: 16% (-1)
SNP 4%
Grn 3%

Highest Lib Dem poll for a decade.

Would put the Conservatives on around 280-290 seats, so about where there are now and well short of a majority, Lib Dems up to 45 and Labour down to 240-ish. Just 1 seat for the Brexit Party.

At the moment a GE would change little in the HoC (Con gains quite limited but massive losses in Scotland to SNP and S England to the Lib Dems) except perhaps a Lab/Lib/SNP coalition which would likely have a mandate to govern for a short period..

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 26 2019, 10:21 AM

That will do to bring in non-bias laws, get the Tories out, and force reform of the BBTory. Then opinion polls will really start to change.

Posted by: Brett-Butler Sep 26 2019, 05:06 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Sep 26 2019, 10:42 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 26 2019, 05:14 PM

And this is before the Labour campaign begins or the impartiality laws come into play to control our one party state media.

Posted by: Envoirment Sep 26 2019, 11:40 PM

Hopefully the Lib Dem surge continues. At the start of the year they were polling ~10%. Now they're consistently polling ~20%. I hope they can move up into 25-30% territory and continue their strong remain stance. Perhaps even surprise during a GE. I'm hoping the Brexit Party will eat into the Con vote and allow surprise wins by the Lib Dems in multiple constituencies come the next GE.

Posted by: Steve201 Sep 27 2019, 12:01 AM

In that scenario you'd think the LDs and laabour could work something out.

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 27 2019, 04:20 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 26 2019, 06:14 PM)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Sep 27 2019, 08:33 AM

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Sep 26 2019, 06:06 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 27 2019, 10:56 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 27 2019, 05:20 AM)

Posted by: Botchia Sep 29 2019, 06:32 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Sep 27 2019, 01:01 AM)

Posted by: Steve201 Sep 29 2019, 07:11 PM

Labour are trying to keep voters in different seats happy which is the right thing to do imo!

Posted by: Rooney Sep 29 2019, 08:02 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Sep 29 2019, 08:11 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 29 2019, 08:51 PM

They are saying they are neutral and will give the country a choice between a soft brexshit or remain.

Posted by: Common Sense Sep 29 2019, 09:41 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 29 2019, 09:51 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Sep 29 2019, 10:42 PM

Problem is by fence sitting they’re haemorrhaging votes left and right and centre. They can broadly afford to lose the right but the centre and left is something they can’t afford if Comrade wants to be PM

Posted by: Rooney Sep 29 2019, 11:08 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 29 2019, 09:51 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Sep 30 2019, 07:02 AM

Is she? Disgraceful!!

Not sure the northern seats will vote Tory which is a good thing but they might vote BP!

Anyone else just noticed Nigel Farage initials are NF 😂 for National Front!

Posted by: Suedehead2 Sep 30 2019, 08:17 AM

It's fairly common for MPs of one party to attend events at another party's conference. Actually addressing the conference (not just a fringe meeting) would be a different matter.

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 30 2019, 09:33 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Sep 30 2019, 08:02 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 30 2019, 10:29 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Sep 30 2019, 08:02 AM)

Posted by: Izzy Sep 30 2019, 10:34 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 30 2019, 10:29 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 30 2019, 10:37 AM

QUOTE(Izzy @ Sep 30 2019, 11:34 AM)

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Sep 30 2019, 10:49 AM

I saw about that, what a dickwad he is.

I'd be really interested to see if those who expressed outrage over the milkshake incident would be willing to call him out on it. I won't hold my breath.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 30 2019, 11:07 AM

He is terrified of milkshakes His nice veneer slipped as he went posh boy private school mode and started going off it at his security over it

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Sep 30 2019, 11:40 AM

He is! Do you remember when he was held hostage on the top of a bus by a few people outside holding milkshakes?

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 30 2019, 01:25 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 30 2019, 11:29 AM)

QUOTE(Izzy @ Sep 30 2019, 11:34 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 30 2019, 01:39 PM

And yet his politics show no sign of having changed? He is still extremely right wing? Stole Nazi propaganda for Leave? Sooo? His words and actions now echo those of the NF-bragging spoilt brat.

And unless you were um a communist, you weren't more left wing than me. In fact, you probably weren't very left wing at all.

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 30 2019, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 30 2019, 02:39 PM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Sep 30 2019, 02:19 PM

Maybe you shouldn't have let yourself be brainwashed bt the dailymail since then.

Andno. He is extremely fsr right. He's probably still fscist

Posted by: vidcapper Sep 30 2019, 03:37 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Sep 30 2019, 03:19 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Sep 30 2019, 04:27 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 30 2019, 02:51 PM)

He is not as right-wing as the NF - right-wing, but not extreme-right.

As for myself, I voted for Labour in the 1983, Michael Foot and all. Read Labour's 1983 manifesto and then try to tell me that it wasn't left-wing...

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 1 2019, 04:49 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Sep 30 2019, 05:27 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 1 2019, 06:41 AM

But why use such devisive language then?

Kauffman was from the Labour right who opposed the leadership so no surprise he had that view.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 1 2019, 07:17 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 1 2019, 07:41 AM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 1 2019, 07:54 AM

Winning a majority doesn't make you right in your arguments though.

Look what Thatcherism has done to your once great country. We can do so much more together than we can ever do alone!

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 1 2019, 10:08 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 1 2019, 08:54 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 1 2019, 11:24 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 1 2019, 11:08 AM)

It is when the question is 'Who do you want to be the next gov't of this country?'

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 1 2019, 09:08 PM

Exactly those election victories led to the tories doing some things right and a lot more wrong imo. Britain is a crueler and more survival of the fittest country now due to her.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 2 2019, 04:42 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 1 2019, 12:24 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 2 2019, 06:51 AM

So you have slightly changed your original rebuttal of my point to that if the people vote for it then so be but it doesn't mean the people are always right.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 2 2019, 07:09 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 2 2019, 07:51 AM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 2 2019, 11:44 AM

Yes...you have.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 2 2019, 01:42 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 2 2019, 12:44 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 2 2019, 03:54 PM

You stated that the 1983 labour manifesto was left wing and said that the argument for democratic socialism was lost because the tories won that election.

Obviously that doesn't mean that people who argue for this are wrong overall and are still entitled to argue for that now.

My argument is that the 83 manifesto simply tried to defend the gains made between 1945-79 and that doesn't mean to say it was overly left wing, in fact in the late 1970s this was the consensus view.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 2 2019, 04:08 PM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 2 2019, 04:54 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 2 2019, 04:42 PM

Well we all know its the Bennite left like JC who have consistently opposed it. Ironic the Benn Act to prevent a No Deal exit in 2019 was produced by his son Hilary.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 3 2019, 05:13 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 2 2019, 04:54 PM)

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 2 2019, 05:08 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 3 2019, 06:59 AM

I wouldn't say that Britain was anything like Venuzuela tbf but the tories will always use silly arguments that will hit home with middle of the road voters.

The social changes you mention of course were different, thankfully Labour succeeded in many of these even if the economic arguements were being lost.

Most people won't follow as they are forgetful but the best way to counter neoliberal arguements is again looking to the past and debating the 1930s and the Victorian era as this is the type of economy tories want.

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Oct 3 2019, 08:33 AM

Literally all we have to do is point to the Victorian era or the thousands dying from extreme poverty right now plus rhe doubling of the national debt to toepedo any Tory eeconomic argument. Oop. Sorry. The UK and Keynesian efonomics have nothing to do with Venezuela, tour personal voogeyman. Sorry Mwaa. You are such a Tory

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 3 2019, 07:51 PM

It's simply highlights the advances we have made because mainly due to the left! Tories were dragged kicking and screaming at each turn!

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 4 2019, 04:59 AM

QUOTE(Steve201 @ Oct 3 2019, 08:51 PM)

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 4 2019, 08:02 AM

Exactly, successes which can't be undone!!

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Oct 4 2019, 08:12 AM

You're wrong. They are desperate to get us oot the EU to do away with human rights. We have a modern day poor house, foodbanks. We have a modern day workhouse, 0 hour contracts, so please.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 4 2019, 09:02 AM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Oct 4 2019, 09:12 AM)

Posted by: Algernon Monqueef Oct 4 2019, 09:10 AM

It is true. Sorry you are too much of a right wing Tory to see it.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 4 2019, 02:02 PM

QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Oct 4 2019, 10:10 AM)

Posted by: Common Sense Oct 5 2019, 08:11 PM

Opinium poll for Observer, Cons back to 15-pt lead:
Con 38% +2
Lab 23% -1
Lib Dem 15% -5
Brexit 12% +1
Green 4% +2
2,006 UK adults 3-4 Oct, change since last week

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 6 2019, 01:56 AM

If there's another extension beyond 31st October that'll change a lot!

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 14 2019, 05:48 AM

Polls update :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 15 2019, 10:07 AM

Latest polls have a 3% gap, and we all knoe these polls are propaganda exercises for Tories, rather than fact. They're done. They're finished.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 15 2019, 01:52 PM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 15 2019, 11:07 AM)

Posted by: Tones and Iz Oct 15 2019, 01:59 PM

I think we're still in a honeymoon period for the PM (even Brown's lasted 3 months) and the Tories could easily fall away in any election scenario. Corbyn's shown his expertise in a campaign scenario, Johnson from his public appearances decidedly... hasn't. And the gap was far bigger in 2017. This isn't an ideal situation for the Conservatives.

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 15 2019, 02:06 PM

Rememebr: polling companies are propaganda tools. The bandwagon effect is a real thing. They were completely wrong last time, all fvaouring 400 seat Tory majorities etc! We saw the same with Michihan, with them pretending Hillary was 23 points ahead vs Bernie.

The Tories are finished.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 16 2019, 04:32 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 15 2019, 03:06 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 16 2019, 04:36 AM

QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 15 2019, 02:59 PM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 16 2019, 09:52 AM

You do rralisr impartiality rules come in to play too, so thr one party state media has to dial back its government propaganda too? The polls in thr US are still reporting error-riddled polls and freely ADMIT Bernie will probably outperform them. Oops. It's the same here. Sorry.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 17 2019, 05:18 AM

Another one of these 'fake' polls?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/16/political-trackers-14-15-oct-update

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 17 2019, 09:02 AM

Yes. It is ToryGov, literally the worst one.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Oct 17 2019, 09:06 AM

The recent increase in the Conservative vote share has been taken from the Brexit Party, that may change if there is an extension beyond 31st October...

Average (1-10 Oct) over 4 polls:

Con 34%
Lab 24½%
Lib Dem 18%
Brexit Party 12%
Green 5%

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 18 2019, 05:10 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 17 2019, 10:02 AM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 18 2019, 01:47 PM

Except it buoyed the Tories, as did Brexshit? Given REAL UNBALANCED polling feom the start, Mad May would have lost far more seats.

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 18 2019, 01:47 PM

If it weren't in the corporate neoliberal interest, polls would be far more accurate. It is a whole thing in political theory. Sorry.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 18 2019, 02:10 PM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 02:47 PM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 18 2019, 02:12 PM

And yet wa sonly 2k votes away from an overall majority based on narrow seats after being written off THANKD TO BIASED POLLS. Soo yeaah.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 18 2019, 02:56 PM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 03:12 PM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 18 2019, 03:40 PM

Not fanrasy, but facts. That was the difference. Sorry.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 18 2019, 04:04 PM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 04:40 PM)

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 18 2019, 04:06 PM

Michael doesn't like facts. He still says REMAIN won and Hillary's sat in the Oval office.

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 18 2019, 04:12 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 18 2019, 05:04 PM)

No, the facts are what the result *actually was*!

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 18 2019, 04:14 PM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 05:12 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 19 2019, 04:37 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 05:12 PM)

Posted by: Tones and Iz Oct 19 2019, 04:45 AM

I think Michael is merely describing a minor psychological effect, that of perceived winner’s advantage, that possibly caused enough floating votes, a small but not insignificant number, to vote for the candidate they perceived as more electable. Which is an outcome that doesn’t seem entirely fair but it happens. In combination with the right media bias, this results in a conservative government more often than it should given how generally equal the splits otherwise are. This is worse because our system is a harmful winner takes all construct.

Such is the advantage to the leading party unless it is completely neck and neck.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 19 2019, 07:25 AM

QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 19 2019, 05:45 AM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 19 2019, 08:38 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 19 2019, 08:25 AM)

Possibly, but that is counterbalanced somewhat by the benefit Labour gain through their constituencies being smaller than average in size - and the longer we go between boundary changes, the more of an advantage it becomes.

Of course, whenever there *is* a boundary review, Labour kick & scream like toddlers having a tantrum about 'Tory bias'...

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 19 2019, 09:05 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 19 2019, 09:38 AM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 19 2019, 09:08 AM

You do realise that thr TORIES suggest HOW the changes are made and the commission responds to that, right? The Tories have decided to change how constituencies are based. You realise that, yes? You realise it is not fair. Like, at all, yes, to guarantee a one party state with no change in vote volume? Idiot.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/14/conservative-power-grab-stay-in-power-permanent

Cheer and clap for your right wing aristocrat masters. They're never wrong and never corrupt!

Also the boundary commission's role is to follow the electoral rules to make it as fair as possible. That's it.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 19 2019, 10:20 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 19 2019, 08:25 AM)

Possibly, but that is counterbalanced somewhat by the benefit Labour gain through their constituencies being smaller than average in size - and the longer we go between boundary changes, the more of an advantage it becomes.

Of course, whenever there *is* a boundary review, Labour kick & scream like toddlers having a tantrum about 'Tory bias'...

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 19 2019, 02:55 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 19 2019, 11:20 AM)

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 19 2019, 03:15 PM

PR or leave as is. The end. The Tories are trying to make a one party state and you are just guffawing like the village idiot and nodding as they do it.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 20 2019, 05:54 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 19 2019, 04:15 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 20 2019, 08:31 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 19 2019, 03:55 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 20 2019, 08:44 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 20 2019, 09:31 AM)

Posted by: Doctor Sleep Oct 24 2019, 04:28 PM

Westminster voting intention...

if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Oct


OOOOOOOOFFFFFFFTTT.

Posted by: Michael Myers Oct 24 2019, 05:06 PM

EVIL TORIES OUT!

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 24 2019, 05:07 PM

QUOTE(Doctor Sleep @ Oct 24 2019, 05:28 PM)

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 24 2019, 05:18 PM

Many Labour MP's and the SNP saying they won't back an election as they suspect some kind of clever trap by Boris to then somehow refuse the extension and crash us out with no deal still on 31st.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 24 2019, 05:33 PM

QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Oct 24 2019, 06:18 PM)

Posted by: Envoirment Oct 24 2019, 07:16 PM

Not surprised by that given what's happened the last few weeks and with public opinion shifting against Boris. Now the important thing is how does it translate into seats? I expect the Brexit Party won't get too many seats, but come 2nd/3rd in a lot of constituencies. That would lead the way for a potential Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green colatition of sorts. I find it hard to believe the Conservatives will be in power in some form again after another GE. Another May-like scenario but worse.

Posted by: Michael Myers Oct 24 2019, 07:32 PM

But we are living in a one party media state, which does buoy the evil party. Brainwashing is a thing.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 25 2019, 04:47 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 24 2019, 06:33 PM)

QUOTE(Envoirment @ Oct 24 2019, 08:16 PM)

QUOTE(Michael Myers @ Oct 24 2019, 08:32 PM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 25 2019, 08:56 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 25 2019, 05:47 AM)

And that's different from *every other* PM, how?

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 25 2019, 09:12 AM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 25 2019, 09:56 AM)

Posted by: blacksquare Oct 25 2019, 09:26 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 25 2019, 10:12 AM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 25 2019, 10:01 AM

QUOTE(blacksquare @ Oct 25 2019, 10:26 AM)

Posted by: Peentergeist Oct 25 2019, 10:10 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 25 2019, 05:47 AM)

And that's different from *every other* PM, how?
Hard to believe, despite the polls?
Ever wonder *how* you became so convinced there's a 'secret Tory plot to create a one party state' in the first place?

The irony is - you accuse me of being brainwashed by the Daily Mail, yet are oblivious to to your own 100% reliance of leftist sources to form your own opinions...

Posted by: Peentergeist Oct 25 2019, 10:13 AM

Grow up. Bojo is a serial liar and a crook. There is a world of difference. Only Cameron and Mad May even come close to his levels of skullduggery and lies.

Also, 51% is a non binding referendum where you expressed an ooinion, a vague one, rather than voted. It's not enough for major constitutional change. Sorry. Aaand no one voted for a hard tory brexshit. Sorry. It is totally undemocratic.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 25 2019, 10:17 AM

QUOTE(Peentergeist @ Oct 25 2019, 11:13 AM)

Posted by: Peentergeist Oct 25 2019, 10:19 AM

And maybe one time it will finally sink in instead of you repeating the lies of the hard right press and Tories you've obviously been brainwashed and conditioned by x

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 25 2019, 10:44 AM

QUOTE(Peentergeist @ Oct 25 2019, 11:19 AM)

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 25 2019, 10:57 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 25 2019, 11:17 AM)

If I had a penny for every time you repeated *that*, I could retire tomorrow.

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 25 2019, 10:59 AM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 25 2019, 10:12 AM)

Posted by: mald487 Oct 25 2019, 12:13 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 25 2019, 10:01 AM)

Did you mean 'tool'?
It's not a question of being 'unable' - I would do the same for anyone who appears to be making a good attempt to get through what we voted for, namely leaving the EU.

Posted by: mald487 Oct 25 2019, 12:21 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 25 2019, 10:59 AM)

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 25 2019, 12:52 PM

QUOTE(mald487 @ Oct 25 2019, 01:21 PM)

Posted by: mald487 Oct 25 2019, 01:35 PM

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 25 2019, 12:52 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 25 2019, 01:46 PM

I think we're drifting off-topic for this thread, perhaps it should be continued elsewhere?

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 26 2019, 07:56 PM

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 36% (-1)
LAB: 23% (+1)
LDM: 18% (-1)
BXP: 12% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-1)

Via @YouGov - 24-25 Oct,
Changes w/ 20-21 Oct.

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 26 2019, 07:57 PM

Opinium poll for the Observer, 23-25 Oct

Con 40% +3
Lab 24% ±0
Lib Dem 15% -1
Brexit 10% -2

Change since 15-17 Oct

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 26 2019, 07:58 PM

Two great polls there for Boris to ponder. Would give him a nice overall majority.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 27 2019, 05:52 AM

QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Oct 26 2019, 08:58 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 27 2019, 03:44 PM

Age, rather than class, has come to determine how Britain votes

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/27/age-rather-than-class-now-determines-how-britain-votes

By 2017 a 30-year-old was twice as likely to back Labour over the Tories, while a 70-year-old was twice as likely to do the opposite

[article continues]

Posted by: Peentergeist Oct 27 2019, 05:00 PM

Evil brainwashing Tories OUT!!

They brainwash old people who aren't as net savvy and fall prey to the evil BBTory, corporate news and right wing rags.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 27 2019, 05:22 PM

QUOTE(Peentergeist @ Oct 27 2019, 05:00 PM)

Posted by: Peentergeist Oct 27 2019, 05:32 PM

40% agaimst rhe most hostile media v a politician EEEVER x Sorry.

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 27 2019, 08:41 PM

Opinium (Con +16), Deltapoll (Con +13) and YouGov (Con +15) all showing Conservative leads in excess of 10pts.


Are they all wrong?

Posted by: Freddie Kruger Oct 27 2019, 08:43 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 27 2019, 05:22 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Oct 30 2019, 10:17 AM

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18002245.new-poll-reveals-support-snp-scottish-independence/

Unionist newspaper the Herald has published its readers poll showing a 57.5% backing for the SNP, 80% (!!!) backing for remain (admittedly not overly surprising given it’s broadsheet) and finally 60% backing for independence.

Tides be turning in Scotland

Posted by: Suedehead2 Oct 30 2019, 11:05 AM

Polls of a self-selected sample of readers of one paper are completely meaningless. Pretending such polls mean anything should be left to the Daily Express.

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Oct 30 2019, 11:52 AM

Usually id agree, but the unionist/nationalist divide in Scotland provides a different frame to look through. When a unionist paper is returning such a heavy volume of nationalist support there is something relevant there and worth thinking about

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 31 2019, 05:07 AM

I eagerly await the first during-campaign polls - that's when the action was last time!

Posted by: Harve Oct 31 2019, 12:13 PM

Vote by education level, YouGov:

Degree holders

28% LAB
28% LD
24% CON
8% GRN
5% BXP
4% SNP
2% Other

GCSEs highest qualification obtained

45% CON
19% BXP
18% LAB
10% LD
3% SNP
3% GRN
2% Other

The Tory/BXP voter demographics are becoming like the US Republican Party's.

Posted by: blacksquare Oct 31 2019, 12:23 PM

QUOTE(Harve @ Oct 31 2019, 12:13 PM)

Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner Oct 31 2019, 01:37 PM

7% of 18-24 backing SNP is something like 80-85% of all under 25s in Scotland if that held out over a full sample size for scotland

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 31 2019, 02:45 PM

QUOTE(Harve @ Oct 31 2019, 12:13 PM)

Posted by: Tones and Iz Oct 31 2019, 03:47 PM

Doesn’t look like suggesting anything, merely that if you are less educated, you are more likely to vote the Conservative Party. What that says about the value of the parties can be left up to the reader.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 31 2019, 04:19 PM

QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 31 2019, 03:47 PM)

Posted by: Harve Oct 31 2019, 04:48 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 31 2019, 03:45 PM)

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 31 2019, 05:07 PM

QUOTE(Harve @ Oct 31 2019, 04:48 PM)

Posted by: blacksquare Oct 31 2019, 06:05 PM

QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 31 2019, 05:07 PM)

And *I* have no idea how people infer things about me, so if they don't like it done to them, don't do it to me.

If people *are* going to make claims about me, at least be 100% honest about what you are implying, so I have a chance to defend myself.

Posted by: vidcapper Nov 1 2019, 03:53 PM

Guardian Polltracker : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/31/uk-general-election-2019-poll-tracker

As it's the Guardian, maybe it'll even be an acceptable source for Michael Moaner?