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> Formerly Forthcoming Tory leadership race
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post May 16 2019, 09:11 PM
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So, May is on notice now and been told to go by the 1922 Committee after she tries MV4 again, whether it's passed or not. Speculation is that she'll leave No.10 immediately and that David Liddington will be Acting PM whilst a leadership election is held.

So, two confirmed candidates so far. Boris Johnson and Esther McVey.

Who would you like to see as leader and who do you think has a good chance of actually getting it and becoming the next PM? Can Boris get enough MP support to put him through to the membership ballot?

I'd like to see Boris win but have a hunch Gove will actually get it. Think Hunt will stand too.


This post has been edited by Brett-Butler: Jun 13 2019, 09:42 PM
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Brett-Butler
post May 16 2019, 09:17 PM
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The smart money for me would be Home Secretary Sajid Javid. It's not going to be Boris, and it's not going to be Jacob Rees-Mogg - they are much less popular amongst their fellow MPs than they are amongst Conservative voters, and the way the Tory leadership contest means that neither are likely to make it to the final two for the wider party run-off, unless they are the only two people that put themselves forward, or are two of only three that do so.
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Harve
post May 16 2019, 09:18 PM
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I really don't care about this much as it won't change the parliamentary arithmetic (unless Phillip Lee, Justine Greening etc. want to defect and vote no confidence upon an ERG PM I know you want to pls that would be really really exciting). In reality it's just gonna embarrass the UK on the international stage even further when the Tories choose a zoomer to represent their zoomer membership.

But Rory Stewart, Matt Hancock, Gove, Penny Mordaunt or Amber Rudd would be some of the less terrible candidates.


This post has been edited by Harve: May 16 2019, 09:19 PM
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post May 16 2019, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 16 2019, 10:17 PM) *
The smart money for me would be Home Secretary Sajid Javid. It's not going to be Boris, and it's not going to be Jacob Rees-Mogg - they are much less popular amongst their fellow MPs than they are amongst Conservative voters, and the way the Tory leadership contest means that neither are likely to make it to the final two for the wider party run-off, unless they are the only two people that put themselves forward, or are two of only three that do so.



I don't think JRM will stand to be honest. I can see Javid and Gove going to the party membership.

Some newspaper political editors are saying that Boris wouldn't be standing if he didn't think he could get enough MP's to see him through to the run off with the membership.


This post has been edited by Common Sense: May 16 2019, 09:28 PM
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Doctor Blind
post May 16 2019, 09:42 PM
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After his disgraceful behaviour over the past year Boris is very much out of favour with the majority of Conservative MPs, so I really do not see him making the final two. He is the favourite at the moment and we all know the favourite never wins a leadership election in the Conservative Party.

Further to this, he is on track to lose his seat in the next General Election at the moment (on current polling).

I picked Amber Rudd in the 2019 Predictions thread and for now I stand by that prediction. I think the Tories will want to put two moderates up for leadership, however if any Brexit favouring candidates make it to the final two (Dominic Raab, Michael Gove) then they will easily win.
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Suedehead2
post May 16 2019, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 16 2019, 10:42 PM) *
After his disgraceful behaviour over the past year Boris is very much out of favour with the majority of Conservative MPs, so I really do not see him making the final two. He is the favourite at the moment and we all know the favourite never wins a leadership election in the Conservative Party.

Further to this, he is on track to lose his seat in the next General Election at the moment (on current polling).

I picked Amber Rudd in the 2019 Predictions thread and for now I stand by that prediction. I think the Tories will want to put two moderates up for leadership, however if any Brexit favouring candidates make it to the final two (Dominic Raab, Michael Gove) then they will easily win.

Amber Rudd's majority is far more precarious than Johnson's.
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ChristmaSteve201
post May 16 2019, 10:58 PM
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Amber Rudd is desperate to be PM!!

I think Sajid Javid has a good chance, he's fairly hardline on social issues, has a good background story being the son of a migrant and working his way up and he fairly inocuous when it comes to Brexit - a brexiteer but not overly loud about it!
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vidsanta
post May 17 2019, 05:06 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 16 2019, 10:42 PM) *
After his disgraceful behaviour over the past year Boris is very much out of favour with the majority of Conservative MPs, so I really do not see him making the final two. He is the favourite at the moment and we all know the favourite never wins a leadership election in the Conservative Party.

Further to this, he is on track to lose his seat in the next General Election at the moment (on current polling).


I don't put too much stock in current polling though, it is all over the place! tongue.gif
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Popchartfreak
post May 17 2019, 07:10 AM
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Thatcher.

A zombie leader for an Undead political party.
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post May 17 2019, 07:51 AM
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 16 2019, 11:58 PM) *
Amber Rudd is desperate to be PM!!



Rudd is very likely to lose her seat at the next election if there's a big swing to Labour and Corbyn's elected. Anyway don't think they'll go for another woman.


This post has been edited by Common Sense: May 17 2019, 07:53 AM
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Tawdry Hepburn
post May 17 2019, 08:49 AM
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All my instincts point towards Michael Gove being the next PM.

Whatever way you look at it though, it's so bloody bleak. Much as I solemnly detest Madame Mayhem, the thought of what could happen after this terrifies me.
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vidsanta
post May 17 2019, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ May 17 2019, 09:49 AM) *
All my instincts point towards Michael Gove being the next PM.

Whatever way you look at it though, it's so bloody bleak. Much as I solemnly detest Madame Mayhem, the thought of what could happen after this terrifies me.


If you're referring to Brexit, I think you are over-egging the pudding a bit. unsure.gif
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Tawdry Hepburn
post May 17 2019, 10:17 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 17 2019, 09:59 AM) *
If you're referring to Brexit, I think you are over-egging the pudding a bit. unsure.gif


I'm talking specifically about who could potentially end up at the helm after she's gone.
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Suedehead2
post May 17 2019, 11:52 AM
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Just about the only positive thing that can be said about May is that the likely alternatives on the Tory benches are even worse.
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Liаm
post May 17 2019, 12:07 PM
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I'm thinking Gove too, as said most of the realisitc options are far worse than even Theresa so it's hardly the good thing we want it to be that she's off drama.gif

QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 16 2019, 11:58 PM) *
Amber Rudd is desperate to be PM!!

She's desperate enough just to stay as an MP!! Queen of recounts.
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LexC
post May 17 2019, 12:09 PM
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Penny Mordauntís constituency is 30 seconds away from my house and can I just say ANYBODY but her!
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LexC
post May 17 2019, 12:10 PM
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Gut instinct is itíll be Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab that make it to the membership vote and Raab will win it.
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Holly and Izzy
post May 17 2019, 12:59 PM
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I'm thinking similar Lex, but Hunt against Gove, with Gove then winning. Picking ones ideal leader out of the bunch is not a pleasant process but I might be inclined to say Hunt... very reservedly.

There are surprisingly a lot of names that have maneuvered themselves well. This will be chaotic (as if it were going to be anything but).
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post May 17 2019, 01:47 PM
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According to some posters on DS, if Boris gets through to the last two then he'll win, simply because he's the likeliest to beat Corbyn in a general election. Polls have shown that and the Tories want to stay in power at any cost. His problem is getting past the MP's though so he'll be promising Cabinet and Ministerial posts right left and centre. Such as McVey may drop out if promised a cabinet post and get behind Boris. That's the thinking anyway.
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Suedehead2
post May 17 2019, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 17 2019, 02:47 PM) *
According to some posters on DS, if Boris gets through to the last two then he'll win, simply because he's the likeliest to beat Corbyn in a general election. Polls have shown that and the Tories want to stay in power at any cost. His problem is getting past the MP's though so he'll be promising Cabinet and Ministerial posts right left and centre. Such as McVey may drop out if promised a cabinet post and get behind Boris. That's the thinking anyway.

So DS posters agree with just about every political commentator in the country. Wow.

Any MP who believes a promise of a Cabinet seat from Johnson should be automatically disqualified from public office on the grounds of showing dangerous naivety. Why would anyone believe a man who has been sacked from two jobs and two marriages for lying?
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