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 UK General Election 2024 |
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 5th May 2024, 01:15 PM
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#1
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 BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 407 User: 175,892 
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So with the local elections results almost wrapped it seems a good time to start this thread. The general election will be the first to be held since 12th December 2019.
It must be held by the 28th January 2025 however it is widely expected to be held at some point in the latter half of 2024. The Prime Minister has said his “working assumption” is that the election will be held in the second half of 2024 - and given it’s in his power to call it there’s no reason not to believe him. For the first time since 2010 the boundaries of parliamentary constituencies will be changing however the total number of constituencies up for election will stay the same at 650. The actual results of the 2019 election by constituency can be found here. The notional results of the 2019 election by constituency based on the new boundaries can be found here. The breakdown of MPs elected in 2019 was: Conservative Party - 365 Labour Party - 202 Scottish National Party - 48 Liberal Democrats - 11 Democratic Unionist Party - 8 Sinn Fein - 7 Plaid Cymru - 4 Social Democratic and Labour Party - 2 Green Party of England and Wales - 1 Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1 Speaker - 1 Over the course of this parliament that breakdown has changed as a result of resignations, by-elections, defections and suspensions. The break down of current MPs is as follows: Conservative - 345 (-20) Labour - 203 (+1) Scottish National Party - 43 (-5) Liberal Democrats - 15 (+4) Democratic Unionist Party - 7 (-1) Sinn Fein - 7 (-) Plaid Cymru 3 (-1) Social Democratic and Labour Party - 2 (-) Alba Party - 2 (+2) Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1 (-) Green Party of England and Wales - 1 (-) Workers Party of Great Britain - 1 (+1) Reform UK - 1 (-) Independent - 18 (+18) Speaker - 1 The breakdown of vote-share for the parties that won more than 0.1% of the vote at the 2019 general election was as follows: Conservative - 43.63% Labour - 32.08% Liberal Democrats - 11.55% Scottish National Party - 3.88% Green Party of England and Wales - 2.61% Brexit Party - 2.01% DUP - 0.76% Sinn Fein - 0.57% Plaid Cymru - 0.48% Alliance - 0.42% SDLP - 0.37% Ulster Unionist - 0.29% According to analysis of the new boundaries Labour would need a record swing of 12.7% to win and overall majority in the election. That's more than achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945 or Tony Blair in 1997. Current polling suggest that they are on course to with a swing even bigger than that but the polls could narrow as we move closer to the election. The Guardians poll of polls at the time of writing this has the main parties as follows: Labour - 43.6% Conservative - 23.4% Reform - 12.1% Liberal Democrat - 9.3% Green Party - 5.8% Obviously under First Past the Post those vote-shares won't translate directly into seat numbers - as demonstrated by the last election. The current seat prediction from Electoral Calculus as of May is as follows: Conservatives - 85 Labour - 472 Liberal Democrat - 50 Reform - 0 Green - 2 Scottish National Party - 19 Plaid Cymru - 4 Other - 2 Democratic Unionist Party - 8 Sinn Fein - 7 Social Democratic and Labour Party - 2 Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1 There will be live coverage of the election results as they come in on BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky News. Other smaller channels may also cover it. At present it is not known if leadership debates that have been a feature since the 2010 election will take place or whether the Prime Minister will take part in them (in 2017 Theresa May boycotted them). Finally of note - a minimum of 100 MPs - 63 of them Conservatives - have already announced that they will be standing down/not seeking re-election at the upcoming general election. This may make some difference in the result in seats where an incumbency factor might have otherwise helped their party to keep the seat. Key Dates (added 28th May) 30th May - Parliament dissolved 5th-16th June - Party manifestos expected to be published (based on stats on past elections) 7th June - Deadline for candidate nominations 18th June - Deadline for new voter registrations 19th June - Deadline for new postal vote applications 26th June - Deadline for new proxy vote applications and voter authority certificates 4th July - Polling day. Emergency proxy votes deadline 5pm. Polls 7am-10pm. This post has been edited by DoBelieveTheHype: 28th May 2024, 10:02 AM |
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5th May 2024, 01:26 PM
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 Baby Reindeer
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 14,225 User: 5,567
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Finally coming round
 Cannot wait to see the tories annihilated! I just hope another Labour smear campaign doesn’t sabotage them this time around.
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5th May 2024, 01:57 PM
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,740 User: 124,514
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Genuinely shocked that Labour only have ONE more MP then 2019 after all their election success since PartyGate
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5th May 2024, 02:15 PM
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#4
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,740 User: 124,514
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QUOTE(Scene @ 5th May 2024, 02:26 PM)  Finally coming round Cannot wait to see the tories annihilated! I just hope another Labour smear campaign doesn’t sabotage them this time around.I'm sure the Mail and co will try their best, as in Desperate Dan Hodges trying to hype that boring tax affair story about Rayner tax for the 93832th day when nobody cares. Luckily, Johnson already released the Saville/Starmer connection nonsense about 2 years too early as we just knew that they'd throw that one out on election week but it's now debunked news. I just can't see anything working this time - certainly not enough to replace the horrific legacy of the Tories and their unpopular leader. |
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5th May 2024, 02:22 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 407 User: 175,892
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QUOTE(Smint @ 5th May 2024, 03:15 PM) I'm sure the Mail and co will try their best, as in Desperate Dan Hodges trying to hype that boring tax affair story about Rayner tax for the 93832th day when nobody cares. Luckily, Johnson already released the Saville/Starmer connection nonsense about 2 years too early as we just knew that they'd throw that one out on election week but it's now debunked news. I just can't see anything working this time - certainly not enough to replace the horrific legacy of the Tories and their unpopular leader. It's going to be hard for them to convince anyone to give a shit about £3000 in unpaid capital gains tax from a genuine error when the PM is responsible for hundreds of millions of pounds of PPE fraud whilst he was chancellor. The more concerning thing is that Sunak has decided a lurch to the hard-right will save his election fortunes. He's wrong but that's no solace for the people these policies target. This post has been edited by DoBelieveTheHype: 5th May 2024, 02:23 PM |
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5th May 2024, 02:23 PM
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,669 User: 10,030
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Really excited for the upcoming election night. I really hope that the polling remains similar, if not the conservatives fall even further. I do feel that the public are very much in favour of big change from the current government and that they can't pull the wool over their eyes as easily as they have done the last 10+ years.
Hopefully Labour will build in the coming months with many sensible & popular policies being revealed - such as their recent policy to nationalise the railways. They should extend that policy to the likes of water & electricity as well in the coming months to align themselves with what a lot of the public would want. Lastly, it will be amazing for the greens to get a 2nd seat in parliament! They have really been going from strength to strength over the last 10 years despite the voting system being quite against them. I do think they will be able to take Bristol Central with how well their local election result went. And likely end up gaining record-high votes breaking their previous 2015 record in a general election. I do feel the greens may become a fairly significant party in the 2030s. Hopefully their local election success and gaining their 2nd MP will help build a great foundation for them to continue their gains. |
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5th May 2024, 05:09 PM
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,652 User: 18,639
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Greens are neoliberals and have a lot of posh Tories in their ranks. The real leftist party, except under scabs like Starmer, is Labour. But yes, we need Labour to bring in pr. That way, we'll almost be free of rhe evil Tories forever.
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5th May 2024, 05:26 PM
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 The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,307 User: 9,232
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Let's go with the 1997 style wipeout *.* (I was too young to pay much attention when it last happened x). I imagine the next few months will be scrambling to ensure that them and their mates get cushy deals or GB News posts and an election probably September/October.
Though their friends there will certainly try, I can't see how any media scandal can stop Labour now. They've been pretty smart and the Tories have just continually dug deeper with a leader that wasn't even their first choice. I do hope Labour use this opportunity to show how how their policies they can actually change things and not just go for the centrists, it's not like the Tories are not pleasing anyone right now so it's not like they've got much to lose x (I will likely vote for them but purely tactically, Starmer isn't appealing to me much) |
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5th May 2024, 05:27 PM
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 6 December 2023
Posts: 1,016 User: 173,568
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Nobody appealing to me at all. I'd like to see more independents but fat chance of that. I'd probably vote green if I could be bothered to vote just for something different but a lot of them are focused on nonsense. If it's November I guess we will hsvevthe US and UK elections almost at the same time
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5th May 2024, 05:31 PM
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#10
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,652 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Liam sota @ 5th May 2024, 06:27 PM) Nobody appealing to me at all. I'd like to see more independents but fat chance of that. I'd probably vote green if I could be bothered to vote just for something different but a lot of them are focused on nonsense. If it's November I guess we will hsvevthe US and UK elections almost at the same time Depends on your sest. FPTP means you vote for the area's biggesy party or its biggest opposition in that seat, or your vote does nothing |
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5th May 2024, 06:10 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 407 User: 175,892
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QUOTE(Long Dong Silver @ 5th May 2024, 06:31 PM) Depends on your sest. FPTP means you vote for the area's biggesy party or its biggest opposition in that seat, or your vote does nothing Except for when people voting for a third party in 2015 led to a referendum on Europe and ultimately our exit from the European Union - 12.6% of our population having a bigger impact on policy than the 67.2% who voted for Labour/Conservative in that election. Third party votes do have an impact on policy of the major parties whether they're in opposition or government. It's not true to say it does nothing - it just doesn't necessarily affect the winner in that seat - it can still have a huge impact on main parties policies. Unfortunately it's not going to have as much impact under PR but it looks unlikely we'll get PR any time soon at the moment. There is also of course the 2010 election where people voting for a third party managed to moderate the worst excesses of a Tory majority government to some degree in that parliament - even if we ended up with a Tory government anyway 5 years later. On which note one of the interesting things at the next election will actually be the impact of third parties. Reform UK will not be replicating the Brexit Party in standing aside in rafts of seats to aid the Conservatives instead standing everywhere and the Workers Party of Great Britain say it will be standing in all seats. Whilst this probably lead to a large number of lost deposits for both parties, it could also influence both the Conservatives and the Labour Party in terms of election policy - with Conservatives veering further to the right - and Labour looking to through sops to more economically left-wing vote without going full on Corbynite or Gallowayian in their policies. There's also going to be a lot of pro-Gaza independents in heavily Muslim areas - looking at the council votes in more detail it's clear many Muslim areas shows independents doing well at Labours expense on that issue - I actually suspect a handful of MPs at the general might be decided on the Gaza issue - either WPGB or Independent pro-Palestinian candidates. Those announcements mean we can expect at least 6 candidates in most seats (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Greens, Reform and Workers Party). That's before regionalist parties. smaller parties and independents are taken into account. |
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5th May 2024, 06:52 PM
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#12
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,695 User: 88
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QUOTE(DoBelieveTheHype @ 5th May 2024, 07:10 PM) Except for when people voting for a third party in 2015 led to a referendum on Europe and ultimately our exit from the European Union - 12.6% of our population having a bigger impact on policy than the 67.2% who voted for Labour/Conservative in that election. Third party votes do have an impact on policy of the major parties whether they're in opposition or government. It's not true to say it does nothing - it just doesn't necessarily affect the winner in that seat - it can still have a huge impact on main parties policies. Unfortunately it's not going to have as much impact under PR but it looks unlikely we'll get PR any time soon at the moment. There is also of course the 2010 election where people voting for a third party managed to moderate the worst excesses of a Tory majority government to some degree in that parliament - even if we ended up with a Tory government anyway 5 years later. On which note one of the interesting things at the next election will actually be the impact of third parties. Reform UK will not be replicating the Brexit Party in standing aside in rafts of seats to aid the Conservatives instead standing everywhere and the Workers Party of Great Britain say it will be standing in all seats. Whilst this probably lead to a large number of lost deposits for both parties, it could also influence both the Conservatives and the Labour Party in terms of election policy - with Conservatives veering further to the right - and Labour looking to through sops to more economically left-wing vote without going full on Corbynite or Gallowayian in their policies. There's also going to be a lot of pro-Gaza independents in heavily Muslim areas - looking at the council votes in more detail it's clear many Muslim areas shows independents doing well at Labours expense on that issue - I actually suspect a handful of MPs at the general might be decided on the Gaza issue - either WPGB or Independent pro-Palestinian candidates. Those announcements mean we can expect at least 6 candidates in most seats (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Greens, Reform and Workers Party). That's before regionalist parties. smaller parties and independents are taken into account. I can't see Labour changing their scope, I imagine they might try a bit harder to engage with local communities, but a general election is a different beast altogether. Not sure Reform or Workers Party will win any seats. I'm fairly certain the SNP and Labour lose seats and Galloway also loses. However, I do think 5 years down the line we will be in trouble, but we can only play what's in front of us and a lot of the future is going to be dicatated by foreign policy and what Russia does next. |
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5th May 2024, 07:35 PM
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#13
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,652 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(DoBelieveTheHype @ 5th May 2024, 07:10 PM) Except for when people voting for a third party in 2015 led to a referendum on Europe and ultimately our exit from the European Union - 12.6% of our population having a bigger impact on policy than the 67.2% who voted for Labour/Conservative in that election. Third party votes do have an impact on policy of the major parties whether they're in opposition or government. It's not true to say it does nothing - it just doesn't necessarily affect the winner in that seat - it can still have a huge impact on main parties policies. Unfortunately it's not going to have as much impact under PR but it looks unlikely we'll get PR any time soon at the moment. There is also of course the 2010 election where people voting for a third party managed to moderate the worst excesses of a Tory majority government to some degree in that parliament - even if we ended up with a Tory government anyway 5 years later. On which note one of the interesting things at the next election will actually be the impact of third parties. Reform UK will not be replicating the Brexit Party in standing aside in rafts of seats to aid the Conservatives instead standing everywhere and the Workers Party of Great Britain say it will be standing in all seats. Whilst this probably lead to a large number of lost deposits for both parties, it could also influence both the Conservatives and the Labour Party in terms of election policy - with Conservatives veering further to the right - and Labour looking to through sops to more economically left-wing vote without going full on Corbynite or Gallowayian in their policies. There's also going to be a lot of pro-Gaza independents in heavily Muslim areas - looking at the council votes in more detail it's clear many Muslim areas shows independents doing well at Labours expense on that issue - I actually suspect a handful of MPs at the general might be decided on the Gaza issue - either WPGB or Independent pro-Palestinian candidates. Those announcements mean we can expect at least 6 candidates in most seats (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Greens, Reform and Workers Party). That's before regionalist parties. smaller parties and independents are taken into account. That's called ILLUSION of choice x |
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5th May 2024, 08:32 PM
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,740 User: 124,514
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Galloway's Workers Party of Britain - terrible name of a party as it stigmatises people who can't work (I know that Labour could be the same but thats been the name of party for centuries whereas the WPB formed in 2019) will hopefully suffer due to their homophobic leader's recent interview where he said gay relationships aren't normal and shouldn't be taught at school.
That's more extreme than the official Conservative party position. Prob a ploy to some of the Muslim community. |
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5th May 2024, 08:50 PM
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,652 User: 18,639
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Didn't he crawl around the floor, meowing like a cat, to impress a woman? He's not a goof barometer of "normal", as whatever that is ... it ain't him.
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6th May 2024, 07:37 AM
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Baby Reindeer
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 14,225 User: 5,567
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QUOTE(Long Dong Silver @ 5th May 2024, 09:50 PM) Didn't he crawl around the floor, meowing like a cat, to impress a woman? He's not a goof barometer of "normal", as whatever that is ... it ain't him.  !!!!!!!!I'm hoping a lot of pressure is put on Sunak to call an early election! |
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6th May 2024, 07:56 AM
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#17
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 407 User: 175,892
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QUOTE(Scene @ 6th May 2024, 08:37 AM) !!!!!!!!I'm hoping a lot of pressure is put on Sunak to call an early election! There might be a lot of pressure from other parties but the pressure from his own party has gone. You've even got rebels openly saying it's too late to replace him and wanting the defeat squarely put at his door. He was only going to go early if a viable plot to oust him and there's no such plot. That means he can wait until at least one flight to Rwanda has gone off and an interest rate cut has taken place. We should all remember though even if it was a "early election" it's technically a "late election" as the government repealed the legislation that meant it should have been held on May 2nd alongside the local elections. |
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6th May 2024, 01:28 PM
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 407 User: 175,892
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So in the first shots to fire post-local elections the Liberal Democrats are going to table a motion of no confidence in the government tomorrow. It's somewhat unlikely to be selected for debate or voted on but if it is it will force the Tories to either publicly support Sunak or vote no confidence and essentially for a general election. Neither option is great for Tory MPs trying to distance themselves from their leader.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24301524....ory-government/ |
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6th May 2024, 01:33 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 17 July 2015 Posts: 719 User: 22,168
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QUOTE(DoBelieveTheHype @ 6th May 2024, 02:28 PM) So in the first shots to fire post-local elections the Liberal Democrats are going to table a motion of no confidence in the government tomorrow. It's somewhat unlikely to be selected for debate or voted on but if it is it will force the Tories to either publicly support Sunak or vote no confidence and essentially for a general election. Neither option is great for Tory MPs trying to distance themselves from their leader. Fingers crossed it does lead to a general election.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24301524....ory-government/ |
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6th May 2024, 03:05 PM
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#20
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,652 User: 18,639
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Thr client journslists are saying they heard "rumours" that the rlection will be in November, to give Richi Rich two full years.
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