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Posted by: Danvember Nov 20 2016, 10:11 PM

do we think it's X Factor's turn again this year or will something pop out?

Paddy Power

13/8 X Factor Winner
5/1 James Corden
8/1 Jollyboys and The King Lot
8/1 Gareth Malone
14/1 Vaults
14/1 Drake
18/1 Leonard Cohen
20/1 Justin Timberlake and Anna Kendrick
25/1 David Bowie
25/1 Spice Girls
25/1 Zayn Malik
25/1 Kylie Minogue

Bet365

13/8 X Factor Winner
6/1 James Corden
8/1 James Shinny Davenport
8/1 Calvin Harris
8/1 Gareth Malone
10/1 Military Wives Choir
12/1 Stormzy
12/1 David Bowie
12/1 Justin Bieber
14/1 Vaults
16/1 Leonard Cohen
16/1 Spice Girls
16/1 Emeli Sandé

Posted by: T Boy Nov 20 2016, 10:23 PM

Surely Christmas no.1 barely means anything anymore.

Posted by: Qween Nov 20 2016, 10:28 PM

The X Factor winner depends on WHO wins this year more than ever. Given that it's probably Matt, then I'd say the odds are a lot lower than that. I'd guess Corden *shudder*

Posted by: lewistgreen Nov 20 2016, 10:28 PM

I'm intrigued to know what the songs are!

Posted by: mr_pmt Nov 20 2016, 10:30 PM

James Corden is actually releasing music? Oh good heavens.

I blame Kylie for this, she opened the floodgates last year.

Posted by: liamk97 Nov 20 2016, 10:35 PM

Do we know when the X Factor final is this year and whether it'll mean the winner's single is released in time for Christmas Week? I'd say the winner stands a better chance this year if it's true that Ed Sheeran is writing the winner's single, given everything he touches seems to be guaranteed success.

Fingers crossed we finally get a 'normal' song hitting #1 this year after 'Uptown Funk' and 'Love Yourself' posing a threat in the past couple of years. I can't think of any potential campaigns that could gain particular interest, unless someone is planning an anti-Trump style campaign or something.

Posted by: Hadji Nov 20 2016, 10:36 PM

X Factor final is 11th December which means that the winning single will enter the chart on 16th December, a week before the Xmas chart

Posted by: Chez Wombat Nov 20 2016, 10:42 PM

Given the X Factor winner didn't get anywhere near Christmas number 1 last year, I'm surprised odds are that short, unless this year is that different in terms of quality (and of the one show I've seen, that didn't seem to be the case)? I'd say it's more likely to be the song that was there the previous week, maybe Rae Sremmurd *shudders*, barring an unexpected campaign. This really doesn't mean anything anymore.

I think it's his song on the Sainsburys advert that premiered this week...which is utter crap, so let's not make that a contender

Posted by: Dobbo Nov 20 2016, 10:44 PM

It'll be another charity single. X Factor has minimal effect these days & the public still aren't ready for a "normal" Xmas #1 yet...

I would lol if it was actually Rae Sremmurd but surely they'll have faded away by then (at least from the top spot).

Posted by: JosephStyles Nov 20 2016, 10:46 PM

Ed Sheeran has apparently written the winning single that will be used for three of the final 5 (not Honey G or 5AM), that will surely make it quite current sounding and if Matt wins like is expected, I could see it going to #1 although I'm not sure it'd last a second week to nab the Christmas #1? Hard to call right now!

(edit: oops, Liam has mentioned Ed already that teaches me for skim-reading)

Posted by: slowdown73 Nov 20 2016, 10:48 PM

I seriously hope it's not X factor. It only attracts 5-6 million viewers now so impact is much less than it used to be. Somebody release a decent original Christmas song and give the X factor a run for their money!

Posted by: Steve201 Nov 20 2016, 10:51 PM

Mariah for the top spot

Posted by: gooddelta Nov 20 2016, 10:54 PM

God knows, I'd love to think there are still a couple of big surprise releases left this year and that it won't just be Clean Bandit or Rae Sremmud on sales of 55k if X Factor fails again and no charity songs click this year (they'd need to grab large download sales in a dying market to make an impact).

That said, I'm sure Simon has learnt his lesson and expect this year's X Factor winning song will be much more current and streaming friendly. If it really is an original song, for the first time since...That's My Goal in 2005?...then it could do surprisingly well. I'm 95% sure at this point it will be Matt Terry too, who seems to have reasonable commercial appeal assuming he's got a decent song.

Posted by: JosephStyles Nov 20 2016, 10:56 PM

Make that 7-8 million for the official figures! Its viewership is still strong, the media exaggerate.

Posted by: Jonjo Nov 20 2016, 11:02 PM

Can Little Mix hurry up, release 'Touch' to radio, perform it on the XF final with Ariana and release that remix of it in time for Christmas number 1?

Posted by: -SCOTT- Nov 20 2016, 11:03 PM

On Xtra factor they were discussing how they all recorded winners singles this week.

Matt said his song contained the word 'cheer' whilst 5AM said their song contained the word 'Christmas' (neither appear in the title). Still unclear if they are originals or covers, or if they are different to each other but it appears we may finally be getting a Christmas winners single

Posted by: HRC Nov 20 2016, 11:06 PM

25/1 Spice Girls

OMG!!

It's been EXACTLY 16 YEARS ALMOST TO THE DAY!!! that I last saw this!!!

Back in 2000, people were (stupidly) betting on Spice Girls' cancelled flop If You Wanna (Have Some Fun) (Something On Your Mind) - yes, it is as bad as the title suggests - to beat Westlife etc to be Christmas 2000 no.1. They were also at 25/1 for that. They had aboot as much chance as this year then too!! XD

Posted by: HRC Nov 20 2016, 11:08 PM

Clearly Cheer and Christmas will be in the same song! 'Let's bring some Christmas Cheeer!'

I bet Cowell & Co. are betting on a new novelty slant: an Xmas song to cheer everyone up after Brexit and Trumpzilla to get the no.1.

Posted by: Rob S~ Nov 20 2016, 11:10 PM

I really am against X Factor and a charity track for #1 personally.

Tbh i don't know why Ed didn't keep the track for himself to release (as a one off Christmas track then release new material a few months later) as he'd certainly get there being another streaming force.

"Awaits Drake springing a Christmas track out of the woodworks" or Bieber recording a new Christmas track. As they'd be our only shot at getting an original track at the top even if partially we are relying on their streaming advantages/popularity!

I'd expect The X Factor will surely grab the #1 the week before though. I can sense they'll be back in force but whether that transfers over to the Christmas #1 is doubtful!

Posted by: -SCOTT- Nov 20 2016, 11:10 PM

Perhaps they are thinking its easy to be added to Christmas playlists on Spotify?

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Nov 20 2016, 11:12 PM

Remember that the XF only have 5 days to sell though!

Posted by: Jonjo Nov 20 2016, 11:14 PM

I am here for an original, Christmas X Factor winning song tbh. It's quite a clever move tbh, coz if it's any good, it'll be downloaded and streamed for years to come!

Posted by: -SCOTT- Nov 20 2016, 11:14 PM

Only on release week, not Christmas number 1 week

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Nov 20 2016, 11:17 PM

Ooh yeah my bad. Will they release a physical this year?

Posted by: Hadji Nov 20 2016, 11:54 PM

Of course they will. They do every year

Posted by: ben08 Nov 20 2016, 11:54 PM

Cliff Richard is trying again to reach no. 1 with It is better to dream (Christmas Mix) available on Friday.

Posted by: BillyH Nov 21 2016, 01:53 AM

'One Dance' with sleighbells over the top.

Posted by: AcerBen Nov 21 2016, 07:34 AM

I think people are being too quick to write X Factor off. Last year's winning song was dreadful and people weren't that invested in Louisa - she only won because the producers slayed all her rivals.

Matt Terry with an Ed Sheeran song would be the one to beat.

Posted by: richie Nov 21 2016, 08:17 AM

I'd be amazed if there's an official David Bowie release. I guess somebody might start a campaign to get an old song there, but very little chance of it succeeding. Same goes for Leonard Cohen.

Posted by: Mack Nov 21 2016, 08:48 AM

There is a campaign to get '2 Become 1' to Christmas No.1:

https://www.facebook.com/events/289611988099517

Posted by: Danvember Nov 21 2016, 09:30 AM

LOL as if that'll do anything. I think people are bored with these 'let's get xxx to Christmas number one' campaigns now anyway, so it'll just be charity causes and X Factor singles in the running.

Posted by: richie Nov 21 2016, 12:09 PM

I might support this one. The girls have had such a hard time of it.

Posted by: TomJ1991 Nov 21 2016, 12:23 PM

I wouldn't mind James Corden getting it. It's an original Christmas song; when's the last time an original Christmas track was Christmas #1? It's for charity, too.

Posted by: burbe Nov 21 2016, 01:08 PM

I'd much rather James Corden than the usual X Factor / charity. Let's have something different for once!

Posted by: Liаm Nov 21 2016, 02:06 PM

James Corden will be fine as something different. An original Christmas song is much better than one of those horrendous choir or ensemble charity singles that butchers a pop song and isn't even christmassy. I just don't get those, nobody wants the actual song so why not just give money to the charity if you want to support the cause? I also don't get the hate for Corden although I do have a weird crush on him so maybe that's why

I won't mind XF getting it if it's original, that's something different if it has to be them or a charity choir. As long as it's not bloody 5am

Posted by: iain Nov 21 2016, 02:10 PM

I don't think the X Factor winner will be Christmas no 1. It may well be no 1 on iTunes, but streaming will slow it down hugely. I think it will probably be Black Beetle.

Posted by: ML Hammer95 Nov 21 2016, 02:25 PM

Will Stormzy really release a song to challenge?! Would have to be a new one if so...

Posted by: Houdini Nov 21 2016, 02:40 PM

To be honest Stormzy only tried last year to stop Louisa Johnson from getting it. That's why he celebrated being ahead of her as if he actually got the Christmas number one.

Posted by: Mart!n Nov 21 2016, 02:47 PM

I thought Ed Sheeran was writing an original xmas track for the X Factor winners track

And its only got 4 days of sales for the week, plus a couple of hours, the final results are on a Sunday.

Posted by: Common Sense Nov 21 2016, 03:04 PM

Any odds for Christmas No.1 album anywhere?

Posted by: shindymindy Nov 21 2016, 05:37 PM

I think this will be a more interesting battle

Posted by: ThePensmith Nov 21 2016, 06:50 PM

I'd like James Corden to get Christmas #1, and I think he probably will. If not for the fact "Carpool Karaoke" is one of my main YouTube obsessions!

Posted by: Better Man Nov 21 2016, 07:12 PM

My predictions:
1. Elvis
2. Robbie
3. Ball & Boe

Posted by: The Hit Parade Nov 21 2016, 09:38 PM

Somebody is fortunate enough to have forgotten 'Shout (For England)' then?

Posted by: Jaÿ Nov 21 2016, 09:59 PM

:') Oh Michael!

(I can't resist replying to this) it's simply called 'If You Wanna Have Some Fun' as I'm sure you know, lol.

I can't find anything online about it being in the 2000 Christmas #1 odds but I'll take your word for it. It wasn't scheduled to be a single though, it just served as a promotional single - so it seems odd to me that it'd have been included in the odds. 'Tell Me Why' was a planned single from 'Forever', it was originally scheduled for a March 2001 release, but obviously it was cancelled because they parted company.

~~~~~

Mariah for Christmas #1 please! *.*

I wouldn't be opposed to the winner of the X Factor (Matt Terry~) managing it, particularly if it's a good original song!

Please no at James Corden. I don't dislike him, but I find the song to be irritating.

Posted by: Steve201 Nov 21 2016, 11:34 PM

Ball and Boe are looking good based on how their sales have held up but I would say they won't have quite as many promo slots as groups like LM!

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Nov 22 2016, 04:18 PM

The Gareth Malone Choir (ft. Sean Paul) [The Chainsmokers remix]

Posted by: Joe. Nov 22 2016, 04:27 PM

I guess that is how the chart works




Fixed, Jay

Posted by: BillyH Nov 22 2016, 04:36 PM

"BAAAAAABY, I LIKE YOUR STYLE..."

Posted by: Jaÿ Nov 22 2016, 04:41 PM

The ideal outcome!

Posted by: Danvember Nov 27 2016, 03:45 PM

this will be this year's charity release then, very big #1 contender.

Posted by: Danvember Nov 27 2016, 03:48 PM

Ladbrokes

7/4 London Hospices Choir
5/2 Matt Terry
5/1 Terry Wogan
10/1 James Corden
10/1 James 'Shinny' Davenport
10/1 5 After Midnight
10/1 Saara Aalto
10/1 Jollyboys and The King Lot
12/1 Calvin Harris
12/1 Justin Bieber
12/1 Vaults
12/1 Spice Girls
12/1 David Bowie
16/1 UMPSA
16/1 Gareth Malone
20/1 Emily Middlemas
20/1 Rae Sremmurd
20/1 Cliff Richard
20/1 Drake
20/1 Adele
20/1 Ed Sheeran
20/1 Olly Murs

Posted by: Dobbo Nov 27 2016, 03:53 PM

Well there it is, there's no way I can see it being anything other than that, even Bieber couldn't beat last year's one.

Shame the odds aren't as tasty this year. That'll be the first #1 to drop out of the top 40 the next week!

Posted by: Chez Wombat Nov 27 2016, 03:59 PM

Ugh, I love the original of that song and it never got to number 1, will be great to watch that murdered :'( (though no James Corden is a good thing)

Posted by: slowdown73 Nov 27 2016, 04:01 PM

I think this year the competition is very wide open. I just hope we don't get another horrific X factor Xmas no1.

Posted by: Danvember Nov 27 2016, 04:10 PM

I've taken a listen and it's actually quite a decent remake, Paul Carrack who sang the original version has kept most of his parts of the song too so it's not like last year's where it was just the choir the whole way through.

Posted by: Common Sense Nov 27 2016, 05:04 PM

No Honey G odds?

Seriously though, just listened to the choir on Youtube and it's a good version. They haven't murdered it. It'll be No.1.

Posted by: twentyonemdh Nov 27 2016, 05:42 PM

Calvin Harris? Is he due some new music out, then?

Posted by: Danvember Nov 27 2016, 06:01 PM

She was 25/1.

Posted by: Danvember Nov 27 2016, 06:02 PM

I don't believe so, they often just give short odds to popular artists like him, Adele and Bieber even if they seem to have no chance.

Posted by: twentyonemdh Nov 27 2016, 06:03 PM

Ah right ─ good technique, there're bound to be some punters with minimal knowledge of new releases who just bet on them simply because they're a big name.

Posted by: gooddelta Nov 27 2016, 06:38 PM

FAR better than the NHS Choir (the original is a great song too, even though I've always found Paul Carrack a bit annoying for some reason) but are we really going to have one of these every year. If it does make it then it will have a whopping great drop out the following week, a la NHS.

From the Ladbrokes odds...

10/1 Saara Aalto *.* IMAGINE!
12/1 Vaults -> Uh no, it's pretty obvious this will never catch on
20/1 Rae Sremmurd -> Amazed it's so low...I'm sure this will still be comfortably top five in a month's time...and no Clean Bandit at all?

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Nov 27 2016, 06:44 PM

I think Clean Bandit could stand a chance!

Posted by: gooddelta Nov 27 2016, 06:45 PM

It's a shame that we never have HUGE weekly sales anymore, everything sells so consistently over time but that does mean that on Xmas week concentrated sales campaigns will be able to get to the top without much of a problem.

The biggest (non-charity/X Factor) 'normal' song will probably only be selling at a rate of 60-80k come Xmas week which won't be that hard to overtake, so dreams of a 'normal' song getting the Xmas #1 might have to wait until such a song can shift enough copies to see off these one week novelties with their huge concentrated sales.

That said, there are a small few 'normal' artists that could command a sale to compete. For example, if Ed Sheeran was to release his comeback single on Xmas chart week then I'm sure he'd have no problem getting a 100k opening. But nobody major ever does release singles in the immediate run up to Xmas anymore.

*awaits Harry Styles dropping his debut solo single on 16th December*

Posted by: Mart!n Nov 27 2016, 06:49 PM

This was also covered by Mike & The Mechanics got the track

Posted by: Steve201 Nov 27 2016, 09:36 PM

Did this choir track Come from a Tv show or just out of nowhere?

Posted by: Mack Nov 27 2016, 11:31 PM

Terry Wogan is that 'The Floral Dance' campaign?

Posted by: ManicKangaroo Nov 27 2016, 11:53 PM

Yes

Posted by: richie Nov 28 2016, 08:02 AM

That IS Paul Carrack though.

Interested to read that BA Robertson co-wrote it. Not his finest moment then!

Posted by: gooddelta Nov 28 2016, 04:29 PM

The X Factor winner won't be releasing a physical.

If it's a popular winner that could cost them about 20-30k sales (even Louisa sold 30k in total), particularly as they are popular stocking fillers. Might not be a sensible decision as streaming is against it before it has got started:

http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/this-years-x-factor-winners-single-wont-have-a-physical-cd-release-for-the-first-time__17257/

Posted by: Jack Nov 28 2016, 04:34 PM

Didn't 'Something I Need' do well on streaming/sales?

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Nov 28 2016, 05:03 PM

EDIT: someone already said it

Posted by: JosephStyles Nov 28 2016, 05:29 PM

That's quite a baffling decision actually! The XF winner always sells well on physicals, I doubt Louisa would've been top 10 last year without them actually I'm sure it generates loads of impulse buys in supermarkets usually.

Posted by: Common Sense Nov 28 2016, 06:04 PM

Bad decision. Should be a physical at all the busy till points in supermarkets.

Posted by: Bluth Nov 29 2016, 12:52 PM

Why do people keep putting the John Lewis single in the contenders when none of them have ever done it before and they've only declined in popularity over the last few years?

Also, why have charity choirs now become the new X Factor single in terms of completely ERADICATING the notion of a Christmas Number One. It's been THIRTEEN years since we've had an original song as the Christmas Number One!!

Posted by: BillyH Nov 29 2016, 06:08 PM

Yeah, if the choir gets it I can see this being the default easy Xmas #1 until at least the end of the decade. A new one every year.

Half of me wonders if it's now just going to be charity releases until the end of time, even with the Spotify effect - look out for 1-OUT chart runs at Christmas in the future.

Posted by: The Hit Parade Nov 29 2016, 06:18 PM

Obviously, BA Robertson's finest moment is 'Carrie' by Cliff Richard.

His solo stuff is mostly as bad as 'The Living Years' though.

Posted by: twentyonemdh Nov 29 2016, 07:24 PM

The Power Of Love and Somewhere Only We Know made #1 at a different time, though, so there's still that logic as to why they put it in the odds.

Posted by: zenon Nov 29 2016, 07:45 PM

That year's Xmas number 1 - Gary Jules and Michael Andrews' Mad World - was also a cover version so you'll have to back to the year before when Girls Aloud topped the festive chart with the original Sound of the Underground.

Posted by: Steve201 Nov 29 2016, 08:21 PM

But Mad World is by far the better track 😜

Posted by: BillyH Nov 29 2016, 08:39 PM

Sound of the Underground was recorded in 2001 by Orchid! The year before that was Robbie's Frank Sinatra cover, so the last original Christmas #1 was in 2000.

Which was, erm...



EDIT: Actually, if you want to be really picky, 'Can We Fix It' was a remixed and extended version of a pre-existing television theme tune first heard two years earlier. Westlife a year before charted with a double A-side of covers, so we're back to 1998 and 'Goodbye' by the Spice Girls as the last truly original Christmas #1.

Bob is a funnier answer though.

Posted by: Taylor Jago Nov 29 2016, 08:57 PM

Killing In The Name is an original song though!

Posted by: Steve201 Nov 29 2016, 09:00 PM

Well this is it although a song already released in 1992

Posted by: Danvember Nov 29 2016, 09:03 PM

Shayne Ward's 'That's My Goal' (2005) was original too.

Posted by: richie Nov 30 2016, 09:01 AM

Heh heh, not 'We Have a Dream' by the 1982 Scotland World Cup squad? I actually really like 'Bang Bang' but my wife hates it.

Posted by: Dobbo Nov 30 2016, 09:06 AM

As was Wherever You Are wasn't it? I get the discussion though I can't see a normal #1 for a very long time unless as was mentioned a huge artist released their comeback single on Xmas week but that in itself seems too far fetched a prospect.

Posted by: JosephStyles Nov 30 2016, 09:12 AM

Orchid never released their version of SOTU so I'd say it actually was an original Christmas #1!

Posted by: Oliver Nov 30 2016, 09:40 AM

Can James Cordon stay as far away from the Christmas #1 as possible please?

Posted by: zenon Nov 30 2016, 04:16 PM

So to clarify Too Much in 1998 was the last truly original Christmas Number 1 that was not either from X Factor, a choir or already years old.

Posted by: Mart!n Nov 30 2016, 04:27 PM

From what I heard that was a Westlife track that was rejected

Posted by: twentyonemdh Nov 30 2016, 04:46 PM

I doubt he'll reach top 40 , let alone #1, luckily.

Posted by: The Hit Parade Nov 30 2016, 07:40 PM

No, 'Goodbye'. 'Too Much' was in 1997.

Is "not a choir" really a thing though?

Posted by: Danvember Nov 30 2016, 09:13 PM

I think 'charity collective' would be a better term, in which case there've been quite a few; Band Aid (2004), Military Wives (2011), Justice Collective (2012), NHS Choir (2015)

Posted by: JosephStyles Nov 30 2016, 09:18 PM

But it is original, many hit songs get rejected by other artists but that doesn't mean it's a cover by the time it's released

Posted by: zenon Nov 30 2016, 09:27 PM

I only count Military Wives and the NHS Choir as choirs.

Posted by: andibob Nov 30 2016, 10:20 PM

And was never released... So many songs are recorded by other people first. Doesn't mean they are covers when they're finally released.

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 1 2016, 04:12 PM

I put a bet on Clean Bandit when they were at 66/1 and just cashed it out now they got slashed to 9/1 and made a bit of money. Yay. (I'm not repeating what happened with Bieber last year lol)

Posted by: TomJ1991 Dec 1 2016, 04:36 PM

The last original Christmas song was Cliff Richard's Saviour's Day, back in 1990.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 1 2016, 05:25 PM

Kylie Minogue is planning a top 40 assault with her new tune 'At Christmas'

doubt it will be a contender for number 1 but hopefully her 50th top 40

She has it Record of the Week on BBC Radio 2, performing it on Jonathan Ross on 10th December (recorded yesterday) and rumoured X-factor final on 11th....

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 1 2016, 10:49 PM

Is that track on her album rerelease?

Posted by: ManicKangaroo Dec 2 2016, 12:31 AM

Yes

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 4 2016, 02:01 PM

Clean Bandit are 16/1.

I am predicting them to be honest.. The XF winners single won't be anywhere near the top at Xmas and I don't see anything that could stop them? I can't see Rae Sremmurd taking it now

Posted by: ElectroBoy Dec 4 2016, 02:11 PM

I put a fiver on Mariah at 100/1 a couple of days ago - best odds now are 33/1.

I think she stands a very good chance - already 4 on streaming and top 20 on i-tunes and the song will be hammered in the week leading up to Christmas - particularly on streaming which I think is going to give her the nudge this year. Especially given as competition seems to be on the low side.

Posted by: Dobbo Dec 4 2016, 02:18 PM

It won't be a Christmas song until Christmas day falls on a Thursday so it gets maximum streaming before the midnight cut-off.

Can't see it being Clean Bandit either, surely they won't be still be shifting huge numbers in what would be their seventh week on top?

Only a choir/charity song will take it IMO as X Factor will also be very weak.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 4 2016, 02:20 PM

But then who'd sell enough to overtake Clean Bandit? I don't think the choir support will be that big tbh

Posted by: pes Dec 4 2016, 02:27 PM

There is any site where I can put my bet from Italy ?

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 4 2016, 02:29 PM

NHS Choir sold over 100k last year so it depends if people get behind it or not!

Posted by: Lenny Dec 4 2016, 03:04 PM

Sick of these choir songs, they're always bloody awful, wish people would just give money to the charities direct for crying out loud.

It really is an open race this year, and with the streaming phenomenon it really could be a Christmas classic we've not seen hit the top spot before. Or perhaps Ed Sheeran has written the winner a brand new Christmas song, we just don't know?

Posted by: Dancember Dec 4 2016, 03:23 PM

We all said that about the NHS Choir last year, but these charity choir singles always seem to get lots of media attention for the cause they're raising money for.

The choir this year will only need to sell about 80k to get #1 anyway unless The X Factor winners single is bigger than expected.

Posted by: Lenty Dec 5 2016, 09:59 AM

This might be unpopular opinion...
But James Arthur is releasing new single "Safe Inside" week before Xmass with (as he said) Epic music video and a lot of promotion in UK...

I have heard the song from his Back From The Edge album. His vocals are stunning and song is about a family member that you love and worry about.

If you make the same mistakes, I will love you either way
All I know is I can't live without you
There is nothing I can say that will change you anyway
Darling, I could never live without you
I can't live, I can't live, no, no

Like him or not. For anyone that knows anything about todays music. He is serious Xmass #1 contender.

Posted by: The Hit Parade Dec 5 2016, 12:09 PM

Surely anyone who knows anything about today's music knows it's virtually impossible for a post-album single to be Christmas Number One in the download era? The only time it's happened was Rage Against The Machine, which hardly counts.

Whether James Arthur knows anything is a question for the reader.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 5 2016, 01:26 PM

Mariah could be a contender

Posted by: Pingu92 Dec 7 2016, 11:55 AM

Cruz beckham in at 10/1 haha

Posted by: Mack'sXmasSack Dec 7 2016, 01:07 PM

I can see Mariah's odds shortening for sure.

Posted by: tommie Dec 7 2016, 02:01 PM

I'm surprised that she isn't on the front page to be honest.

She'll pretty much make every Christmas playlist + will probably be relatively early on as it's such an upbeat tune to get people in the mood. I believe she'll at least make it to number one on Spotify...

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 7 2016, 02:03 PM

Who was the Spotify Xmas no1 last year?

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ Dec 7 2016, 02:05 PM

Mariah, tommie she's always has been #1 on Spotify on Christmas week! She'll get there earlier this year with the bigger increase so far this month.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 7 2016, 02:10 PM

Thought that but can she be no1 on the official chart for the first time?

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 7 2016, 02:14 PM

Come on kylie! I need At Christmas to be top 40!!!!!!! Will we get a video or EP on Friday 9th? I think so

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 7 2016, 02:14 PM

Is it just out then or when was At Christmas released?

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 7 2016, 02:55 PM

Friends of Jo Cox favourites at the minute 5/4 and Mariah down to 12/1 - someone must have told the bookies something lol

Posted by: Mullo Dec 7 2016, 03:28 PM

with the album at the end of November
This weekend will see the only promo its getting though, RAH, Jonny Ross, and X Factor

Posted by: dennispennis123 Dec 7 2016, 03:41 PM

I presume a lot of people have been putting money on Mariah so the bookies will cut her odds to cover themselves.

Posted by: Common Sense Dec 7 2016, 03:50 PM

It's Record Of The Week on Ken Bruce's show on R2 too so quite a bit of exposure atm.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 7 2016, 05:03 PM

The Weeknd's 'I Feel It Coming' could get there actually!
#6 on iTunes
#11 on Spotify
He's performing it on the XFactor too!

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 7 2016, 05:49 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjsRTBk-hvg

first performance of At Christmas by Kylie ... on Italian TV...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjsRTBk-hvg

Posted by: Dobbo Dec 7 2016, 06:21 PM

Can't see it being Mariah, just seems too good to be true. Impressive its managed to get this high already but history tells us after its first big climb in the top 40 it evens out the next 2 weeks:

2015: 35-13-12-11-37
2014: 68-52-17-16-18-20
2013: 68-47-14-12-13-30
2012: 56-30-20-21-20-55
2011: 64-27-12-11-17

So yeah can't see it, it'll stay around the #5 mark going by this pattern^ altho its great to see it have this "mini 3-week run" within the top 10 this year. In a few years time (and when Xmas day falls more favourably within the charting week) it could feasibly manage 3 weeks in the top 3!

Posted by: twentyonemdh Dec 7 2016, 06:24 PM

I'm not ready for this *.* I really hope it gets put 59p, but I assume it could get to iTunes #1 regardless, meaning a big climb into the top 5 is bound for next week

Posted by: twentyonemdh Dec 7 2016, 06:25 PM

When are the Hospice and Jo Cox songs released? This Friday?

Posted by: Pingu92 Dec 7 2016, 08:41 PM

Jo cox song is already out. Hospice one comes out on the 16th

Posted by: Mango Dec 7 2016, 11:49 PM

Yes but the difference this year is that streaming has a much bigger effect on the chart than ever before, and from what I understand she always hits the streaming #1 in the week or so before Christmas, so rather than just even out over the next 2 weeks I think she might very well climb. I can certainly see her finishing Top 3 this year, if not #1.

Posted by: Scene Dec 8 2016, 12:55 AM

This.

If Drake can stay at number one for 15 weeks despite not being in the iTunes top 10 at one point (IIRC), I think Mariah has a good shot for just a week.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 8 2016, 02:27 PM

Kylie Minogue - At Christmas

now A-listed on BBC Radio 2 for next week
Live performance on Facebook at 5.30pm - Warner UK have tweeted
Jonathan Ross Xmas Special Performance - Saturday 10th
X-factor Performance - 11th December
2 gigs at Royal Albert Hall - 9th & 10th Dec

If she cant get her 50th top 40 hit with this song then.......

+ will we get a video tomorrow or even a remixes EP? ready for start of chart week.......

Posted by: crazy christmas Dec 8 2016, 03:52 PM

Greg Lake has died so wonder if it's a bit late for a campaign to get I Believe In Father Christmas to No.1. Great song, only kept off in 1975 by Bohemian Rhapsody

Posted by: zenon Dec 8 2016, 03:57 PM

There's still just over a week to sort any campaign out.

Posted by: richie Dec 8 2016, 04:02 PM

I suspect he'll get a bit of a boost and make the top 40, but number 1 seems a bit unlikely.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 8 2016, 04:36 PM

God I can't believe he's dead - must have only been in his 60s, wouldn't be the most well known artist so hard to know if there will be an affect!

Posted by: crazy christmas Dec 8 2016, 07:10 PM

He was 69 according to Wiki.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 8 2016, 07:11 PM

A long shot but I reckon Rag'N'Bone Man might do it. Worth a punt at 14/1 IMO.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 8 2016, 10:41 PM

Older than I thought - seen him in a Xmas chart rundown a few years back and thought he looked young.

And DB - everything seems a long shot in this years Xmas chart!

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 9 2016, 07:00 PM

Taylor and Zayn are the favourites - 11/4.

Posted by: Pingu92 Dec 9 2016, 08:10 PM

Bookies are so clueless when it comes to the charts haha. I doubt it'll even be in the top 10 in Christmas week

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 10 2016, 06:50 PM

Scarlett Moffat 66/1

?

Posted by: christmdhas Dec 10 2016, 06:54 PM

I'd assume this time tomorrow Louis and Steve will be favourite for #1.

Posted by: Dancember Dec 10 2016, 07:07 PM

Ladbrokes

5/2 Friends of Jo Cox
7/2 Zayn & Taylor
9/2 X Factor Winner
9/1 Greg Lake
10/1 The London Hospices Choir
10/1 Cruz Beckham
14/1 Clean Bandit
16/1 Inspiral Carpets (WHO?)
16/1 Mariah Carey
33/1 Rag'n'Bone Man
33/1 The Weeknd
33/1 Jamie Culum
40/1 Little Mix
50/1 James 'Shinny' Davenport
50/1 James Corden
50/1 Terry Wogan

Posted by: Mack'sXmasSack Dec 10 2016, 07:40 PM

http://www.radiox.co.uk/news/inspiral-carpets-fans-campaign-christmas-no1-gill/

This will probably explain who Inspiral Carpets are, Dan.

Posted by: christmdhas Dec 10 2016, 07:46 PM

I thought it was a carpet company at first, :,)

Posted by: crazy christmas Dec 10 2016, 07:48 PM

Ah well that grainy vid would be from 1975.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 10 2016, 10:40 PM

I mean one of those countdowns when he spoke about the track nowadays (although it was a few years ago I saw it)!

Posted by: Dancember Dec 11 2016, 01:25 PM

Ladbrokes

3/1 Friends of Jo Cox
4/1 Matt Terry
6/1 Louis Tomlinson/Steve Aoki
6/1 Saara Aalto
7/1 Zayn Malik/Taylor Swift
8/1 London Hospices Choir
---------
12/1 Little Mix
14/1 Kylie Minogue
20/1 Clean Bandit
20/1 Greg Lake
20/1 Inspiral Carpets
25/1 Mariah Carey
25/1 Calvin Harris
25/1 Cliff Richard

Posted by: christmdhas Dec 11 2016, 01:32 PM

Quite remarkable at just how open it is this year - I think we can rule out ZAYN and Taylor unless it gets put on Spotify, though.

So it seems a very very close race between Louis, Little Mix (who are being totally underestimated in my eyes), the X-Factor winner, Hospices & Friends Of Jo Cox, and I can't call it at all at this moment in time.

Posted by: timjimlee Dec 11 2016, 01:45 PM

Cool as ****

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 11 2016, 03:09 PM

How ludicrous that the current #1 is only being given odds of 20/1!

Posted by: The Hit Parade Dec 11 2016, 03:40 PM

Don't forget that bookies are trying to make money, so their odds aren't always a pure reflection of how likely something is.



And yes, I do feel old when people don't know who the Inspiral Carpets were. Believe it or not, I remember that song being played on Capital.

Posted by: Frosty Xmas Baps Dec 11 2016, 03:49 PM

Boo Spice Girl no longer featured!!

Posted by: 1990 Dec 11 2016, 09:18 PM

I think Mariah could do it this year, her streams should be huge that week and she has the Christmas Carpool Karaoke coming up, which should help with downloads.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 11 2016, 11:43 PM

Funny how this years race is one of the best in years - seems streaming inadvertently has revived the Christmas chart race!

Posted by: Robbie Dec 12 2016, 12:22 AM

I also hope it's stopped the one week wonders from getting to the top.

The Christmas number 1 used to be about records that were popular getting to the top of the charts. Heck, some even used to sell a million. When was the last time that happened?

With the greatest of respect to Jo Cox I hope that record doesn't reach number 1 nor any NHS song nor any dying child number 1. Let's have a proper number 1 at Christmas we all enjoy.

Sorry for replying to your post with this negative response Steve as it's not you - or anyone else at BuzzJack - I'm directing this at. I've hijacked your post. But let's cut the bullshit and stop these one week wonders from ruining forever the Christmas number 1. Thankfully the X Factor song won't do either as they are responsible for starting all this "let's aim a song at the top for Christmas number 1" rubbish. At least if Mariah gets to the top (which she won't, though she'll be top 10) at least she will have made her way to the top.

Bah, humbug!

Posted by: Lenny Dec 12 2016, 02:39 AM

I find your post to be the opposite of 'bah humbug' - completely agree!

Was Mr Blobby a charity single?!

Posted by: The Hit Parade Dec 12 2016, 09:38 AM

I don't think Mr Blobby was a charity single, no.

Was James Arthur the last Christmas Number One to sell a million?

Posted by: Dancember Dec 12 2016, 09:51 AM

No, mostly because James Arthur wasn't Christmas Number One.

The last one must've been Matt Cardle in 2010.

Posted by: The Hit Parade Dec 12 2016, 09:53 AM

Good point. But apart from that...

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 12 2016, 10:18 AM

I've never even heard of Matt Terry or Saara Aalto?

Posted by: *Xmas Ben* Dec 12 2016, 10:25 AM

Contestants of X Factor, the winner is Matt Terry.

Even I knew it, although I don't watch because I'm not in the UK.

Posted by: vidsanta Dec 12 2016, 10:43 AM

I should have guessed

I wish I could travel to Mars to get away from Cowell, or better still, send *him* there...

Posted by: Dancember Dec 12 2016, 11:18 AM

Ladbrokes

13/8 Matt Terry
4/1 Friends Of Jo Cox
5/1 London Hospices Choir
6/1 Louis Tomlinson/Steve Aoki
12/1 Zayn Malik/Taylor Swift
12/1 Inspiral Carpets
12/1 Honey G (ignoring that her single isn't out until 23/12 )
20/1 Clean Bandit
25/1 Little Mix
25/1 Mariah Carey
25/1 Calvin Harris
25/1 Cliff Richard

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ Dec 12 2016, 11:56 AM

the bookies really are underestimating Mariah with her streaming advantage. She probably won't be #1 or 2 but she's definitely worth better odds than 25/1 personally & Inspiral Carpets won't even be top 20, or even top 40!

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 12:11 PM

Why not?

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ Dec 12 2016, 12:19 PM

it'll get less news coverage than the Jo Cox & Hospice Choir. Could be wrong though but I'm not sure christmas campaigns are a big force anymore. It's difficult to tell how this one will do but I really can't see it making the top 20, maybe 26 or something at highest & it's not going to be very high on streaming!

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 12:22 PM

Is there much news coverage now at all? I reckon it'll depend on how far it gets spread on social media among groups of folk of a certain age who like bands like Stone Roses / Oasis etc.

Mind you, I bought it in 1994, not going to buy it again.

Posted by: Dancember Dec 12 2016, 12:30 PM

I doubt Inspiral Carpets will get anywhere tbh. They'll only be a low top 40 sales hit at best and with no streaming likely to miss the Top 100 altogether.

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 12 2016, 12:41 PM

It must be that not many people are betting on Mariah rather than the bookies don't think it will happen.

I don't think it will either, but I agree 25/1 is good value.

Posted by: Mack'sXmasSack Dec 12 2016, 12:53 PM

Can you have it each-way for the Christmas #1 by the way or is it win only?

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 12:58 PM

Can somebody explain this "no streaming" thing to me that everyone has started talking about? I just listened to it on Spotify, why is that any different to Mariah Carey?

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 12 2016, 01:03 PM

Mariah is going to have a lot of streams whereas Inspiral will have close to no streaming

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 01:18 PM

Right. So it's not a rule or anything, where a track has to be officially "re-released" for streams to count? Well, again, depends on the uptake of social media. I'd love to see you all proven wrong

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 12 2016, 01:21 PM

Its available on streaming services but its not guaranteed an awful lot due to the nature of the song whereas Mariah is guaranteed around 400k a day at weekends especially!

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 01:31 PM

Yeah, I just wasn't sure if there was some new rule. I don't doubt Mariah will be everywhere you go this weekend (assuming shops use streaming services nowadays) but I do reckon the Carpets will get enough to be in the charts. They wouldn't have odds if people weren't betting, and people wouldn't be betting unless there was a chance.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 12 2016, 01:35 PM

But then honey g is 12/1 yet her single isn't even out until the 23rd.. so people are betting on her even though there's 0% chance

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 01:55 PM

She has several tracks on Spotify so it isn't impossible. Just unlikely. But who knows what might happen.

Posted by: JosephCarey Dec 12 2016, 01:58 PM

None of them are chart eligible (like the other contestants' performances), so it is impossible as things stand

Posted by: richie Dec 12 2016, 04:13 PM

Fine - so I still have no idea what is eligible through streaming and what isn't. I give up.

Posted by: JosephCarey Dec 12 2016, 04:17 PM

It's just the X Factor performances, they were on iTunes instead between 2010 and 2015 and were ineligible there too!

Posted by: Dancember Dec 12 2016, 04:19 PM

Everything is eligible through streaming.

Except X Factor recordings from the live shows as X Factor asked to make those chart ineligible (but it's not like they're getting enough streams to chart anyway)

If you stream Inspiral Carpets then that WILL count. It's just that they are likely to not get many streams so their chart position will suffer as a result.

Posted by: n4yr Dec 12 2016, 07:45 PM

I think I know where Richie is getting confused - the people who are saying "song x will have no streaming" are using hyperbole. The song will have streaming, it just won't be very much.

Posted by: Davidson Dec 12 2016, 08:23 PM

I feel like the top 5 next week will be:

Clean Bandit
Louis/Steve Aoki
Mariah Carey
Charity Single
Matt Terry

Feel like any of the top 3 could take it (Clean Bandit and Louis being the most likely). I'm gonna wait until the end of the week to see how much Louis is rising on Spotify and how much he is falling on iTunes. I think Clean Bandit could well do it again if his sales lead starts to fall away during the week. 20/1 odds on them are looking very appealing I have to say.

Posted by: Davidson Dec 12 2016, 09:03 PM

Just a quick question with regards to placing bets on this, as I have never done so before.

Can you place bets up until the official announcement on the Friday or do they stop taking bets at some point before the mids are released? Just I'm not sure whether to place a bet before the official Christmas week starts or wait until we see a fuller picture?

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 12 2016, 11:56 PM

On Bet365 the books close for Christmas #1 at 18:00 on Friday 16th December, so I imagine it'll be similar for other sites? So before we will see any midweeks, but possibly enough time to see how well the charity singles are performing on iTunes.

Posted by: richie Dec 13 2016, 08:34 AM

Thanks, I think I have it now and didn't know that organisations could request their streams be ineligible (but I bet X Factor still take the money!)

I'd been thinking for ages that "no streaming" meant it didn't count.

Posted by: Mango Dec 13 2016, 09:33 AM

I've now got £5 on Mariah (at 33/1) and £5 on Clean Bandit (at 20/1) to cover myself. My bets hardly ever come off though so no doubt something else will take it!

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 13 2016, 12:14 PM

Of course they take the money.. the only reason they are made not eligible is because they didn't want contestants charting before the contest is over. But they've only been getting about 30,000 streams a week anyway.

Posted by: Mikal Dec 13 2016, 03:04 PM

I think the bookies are completely wrong?! Louis is falling on iTunes and so is Matt.

Yet Clean Bandit are as low as 25/1 on some sites and Mariah as low as 33/1!

I'm putting my money on both of them. Me and some friends have got £40 so £20 on each. (£520 win if Clean Bandit are #1 and £680 for Mariah)

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 13 2016, 04:50 PM

Ed Sheeran has posted a teaser on his social media, but it's only a plain blue image with no confirmation of anything. Speculation that a single is coming... maybe he'll be the Christmas #1? ;o

For now I only have bets on Mariah Carey & Louis Tomlinson. If Ed confirms a single then I may go with him too. *#1 ends up being either Clean Bandit, Matt Terry or a charity single :') *

It's certainly going to be an exciting week, it could go so many different ways at this point! Can't remember a Christmas week like this. It's certainly not as clear cut as last year where it only seemed likely to be either Justin Bieber or Lewisham Choir.

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 13 2016, 04:54 PM

Ha. I've long said that if Ed was to release a single on Xmas week he'd easily go straight in at No.1.

But would he want to go against the X Factor track that he wrote?

Posted by: Dancember Dec 13 2016, 04:55 PM

Ed wouldn't challenge for the christmas #1 himself surely? that must've been part of the deal for X Factor to use his songwriting talent.

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 13 2016, 04:58 PM

It certainly seems like it'd be a conflict of interest, hmm. I look forward to finding out what Ed has to confirm!

Posted by: Jingle Burbes Dec 13 2016, 05:05 PM

Last week I put money on Mariah and Little Mix, at this point it seems Little Mix haven't received a big enough boost so relying on Mariah to come through for me. I do think she's being underestimated by the bookies though. I'll be surprised if she isn't top 3!

Posted by: christmdhas Dec 13 2016, 05:29 PM

Can you do the cash out thing for Little Mix?

Posted by: Davidson Dec 13 2016, 07:04 PM

How much of a Spotify boost did Mariah recieve last Christmas week? Like do we know how much the song increased? If it is not at least a jump of about another 100% on top of what she is streaming now there is no way she would do it. In fact shes fallen back down to #6 today.

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 13 2016, 07:18 PM

I'm tempted to have a nibble on Clean Bandit but surely Mariah's downloads aren't going to be high enough even if she does climb to #1 on streams (which I don't think will happen either)

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 13 2016, 07:42 PM

Mariah is very unlikely to do it - she was the streaming chart #1 in 2013 the week AFTER Christmas. The biggest streams for festive songs are usually on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day - both of which will nearly always fall into the sales period that counts for after the Christmas chart. In 2013 the chart week was favourable due to 22-25 December falling in the same week, this week that is split across 2 chart weeks with 22nd (Thursday) being the day that no data will be available for..

Posted by: SKOB Dec 13 2016, 07:55 PM

But I believe that the streaming is so much more mainstream now and people are loving that song like crazy. However, I believe she'll chart higher the week after this year and she can be #1 then.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 13 2016, 07:59 PM

That is unlikely too because festive streams drop off a CLIFF on Boxing Day (e.g. Mariah 1- 10 last year on Boxing Day)

Posted by: SKOB Dec 13 2016, 08:02 PM

Yea it depends how much she can collect streams in those 3 days

Posted by: scratchy23 Dec 13 2016, 08:52 PM

I've just put £10 on Clean Bandit at 25/1.

I've placed a few bets on various silly things over the last few years but never once won. Hopefully this will be my first win!

I put money on Marcus Collins to win X Factor (THANK GOD HE DIDN'T), Michelle Visage to win CBB and Gemma Collins to win CBB. I was close with Marcus but not with the other two lolz.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 13 2016, 09:07 PM

Yeh DB is right we have to wait for Xmas day to be on a wed/Thursday for that to happen - only difference now is downloads are much less so streams will be bigger but Mariahs downloads will also decrease too!

Posted by: ElectroBoy Dec 13 2016, 09:19 PM

I still think Mariah is in with a chance

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 13 2016, 11:16 PM

I've placed three bets just now, with my usual expenditure of £10:

£8 on Clean Bandit at 25/1 (amazed these odds are still so low)
£1 on Mariah Carey at 33/1
£1 on Ed Sheeran at 14/1 (worth a small punt...if he does happen to release anything he'll be a surefire bet)

Posted by: Mango Dec 13 2016, 11:19 PM

Ed has teased something on his instagram, so who knows. But then again, would he really be allowed to release a single to compete with his own penned X Factor single??

Posted by: JosephCarey Dec 13 2016, 11:22 PM

I guess if The X Factor wanted the Xmas #1 that badly, they'd have had the final a week later? I don't think they've ever had the Xmas #1 when the song first charted the week before unless I've forgotten something.

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ Dec 13 2016, 11:24 PM

Probably not but I don't get why he has to Shy away from it. Where are the days of not caring too much and going in for a battle. It would be a good story if Ed released his first single of the new album and turned out with it also being Christmas #1 whilst just being a ordinary non Christmas song like many would prefer..

I think it would be interesting for Ed to release his own song against a song he wrote for the x factor and it be in the same week!

Posted by: Frosty Xmas Baps Dec 13 2016, 11:25 PM

Mariah seems unlikely.

I think it's between Matt and the choir and maaybe Clean Bandit at a push.

Posted by: Mr. C. Joel Dec 14 2016, 03:42 AM

Got my bet on Clean Bandit. I really hope they somehow manage it.

All it needs is a big performance or some big top rated show to play Rockabye as backing music and It could just give it that little push, either that or reducing to 59p would be amazing!

Posted by: crazy christmas Dec 14 2016, 10:03 AM

Here's a post by Hitstatic on DS. Reckon he could be right, especially if GMB get behind it.

Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce this years Christmas #1.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-38293156

As soon as I read that the VAT from all sales of the single will be donated to the Jo Cox Foundation, I instantly thought "well, this is the Christmas #1".

I can see this selling similarly to The Justice Collective next week. Good Morning Britain will be backing this single, plus it's going to get widespread media attention purely because of the horrific attack that took place in the summer.

Sorry Cowell, you can throw as much Louis Tomlinson and Matt Terry as you want at the public, but ultimately you ain't getting that Christmas #1 this year.

Posted by: SKOB Dec 14 2016, 10:43 AM

With streaming it's not that simple. The charity thing doesn't work there as well as with downloads/physicals

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 14 2016, 10:54 AM

It doesn't seem TOO much of a stretch for the Jo Cox thing to clear 70k downloads if the media hammer it next week, which is all it would need to get the No.1.

Posted by: Mango Dec 14 2016, 10:57 AM

Do we know if the Jo Cox single is being released on CD too?

Posted by: Dancember Dec 14 2016, 11:00 AM

I don't think we should rule Jo Cox's Friends out, it'll get lots of media attention like NHS Choir did last year.

We may even see Matt Terry make a tweet about how they deserve it more than he does, as we now know that gets you good publicity...

Posted by: Dancember Dec 14 2016, 11:07 AM

Ladbrokes

11/8 Matt Terry
5/2 Jo Cox's Friends
8/1 Louis Tomlinson
8/1 London Hospices Choir
12/1 Inspiral Carpets
25/1 Ed Sheeran
25/1 Clean Bandit
25/1 Calvin Harris
33/1 Zayn & Taylor
33/1 RagnBone Man
33/1 James Corden

Posted by: chartdj Dec 14 2016, 11:09 AM

if it's the only way to stop xfactor, I accept the choir

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ Dec 14 2016, 11:27 AM

I'd prefer Jo Cox over both the choir and x factor. The choir thing for me is now beginning to get just as tedious. I wished they release away from Christmas week sometimes.

Besides the living years cover is a bit rubbish.

Posted by: Dancember Dec 14 2016, 12:08 PM

I think the choir will underperform seeing as the Jo Cox tribute is getting more attention and it usually is only one charity single that does well per year (ignoring The X Factor being a charity single as well)

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 14 2016, 12:38 PM

Definitely looks like the Jo Cox one is going to have better chance than the choir one. It's that, Matt or Clean Bandit now I think. Louis I'd rule out now and I don't think Mariah will be able to do enough streams to make up for lack of downloads.

So tempted to put a bit of money on Clean Bandit at those odds but after I screwed up my Eurovision bets this year I don't want to risk it!

Posted by: richie Dec 14 2016, 02:08 PM

Inspiral Carpets odds shortening - I wonder what's going on there?

Maybe they do "have streaming"

Posted by: Scene Dec 14 2016, 02:14 PM

I'm still holding out for Mariah! (it's all I can do at this point )

Posted by: The Hit Parade Dec 14 2016, 02:17 PM

These MPs (who appear on the single) seem to be holding physical copies of it. Unless they're only for promotional purposes.
https://twitter.com/MP4RockBand/status/809037845310611457

Edit: there's a CD available online: http://www.pledgemusic.com/projects/friends-of-jo-cox?referrer=happening

Posted by: Mango Dec 14 2016, 02:36 PM

If supermarkets are going to stock the CD single, that could make a huge difference.

Another factor to consider is how good or bad the song is. Has anyone actually heard it yet?!

Posted by: Davidson Dec 14 2016, 04:55 PM

Clean Bandit's odds are shortening a lot now. Decided to stick on £10 on them at 20/1 for now and for joining I have been given another £20 in free bets. Going to wait until tomorrow to decide who to place it on. I'm thinking Clean Bandit, Jo Cox and Matt Terry will be the top 3 but it really depends on the next few days.

Jo Cox has flown up to favourite now.

Posted by: Tinasha Dec 14 2016, 05:32 PM

I put money on Ed Sheeran yesterday so he'd better release!

Posted by: Davidson Dec 14 2016, 05:36 PM

If Sheeran releases I'll be fuming.

Actually to be fair, if we cock up now, it does seem easily rectifiable at another date. They all seem to be stopping taking bets at different times. One I checked (can't remember which bookies) took them up until 16:00 on Fri 23rd, so if it is crystal clear from the midweeks who's going to be #1 I will probably put another bit on them to make sure I'm not losing out any cash.

Posted by: John-James Dec 14 2016, 08:27 PM

I hope CB can get it. It's been awhile that a song just naturally got the Christmas #1 without it being a song from X-Factor or a campaigned song

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 14 2016, 10:18 PM

I would t mind CB getting Xmas no1 but not only sales of less than 60k 😭

Posted by: Serg Mix Dec 14 2016, 10:49 PM

I can't see past CB victory at this point, hopefully it's an exciting race tho.

Posted by: Davidson Dec 14 2016, 10:56 PM

I would be very happy with a CB victory as I would be up £410.

Posted by: PeaceMob Dec 14 2016, 10:57 PM

If Clean Bandit are Christmas Number 1 next week, that would be 7 weeks on top, I can't see that happening on hopefully a very competitive week. So I'm hoping Ed Sheeran releases a surprise Christmas song, that would really spice it up.

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 14 2016, 10:59 PM

Are Spice Girls still in the betting?

Posted by: Davidson Dec 14 2016, 11:03 PM

They are, at 100/1. Even if they did release, a GEM track would do like 10k max surely

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 15 2016, 02:49 PM

I'll win £105 if Clean Bandit get it... for a second time though, I have an opportunity to cash out my bet on them and win myself around £7 again (I previously did this when I put £5 on them at 66/1 then cashed out after XF when they dropped to 9/1, kinda wishing I hadn't done so now!!1) which I'm tempted to do as I can't really see past the Jo Cox single getting the #1... but what if?

Posted by: Davidson Dec 15 2016, 02:53 PM

Nah I don't think it's worth cashing out, especially when lots of bookies are taking bets way into Christmas week.

If we see from the mids that it's a clear Jo Cox victory you could easily put enough on the charity song to make your money back. I still think Clean Bandit are the next most likely candidates to her.

Posted by: Mr. C. Joel Dec 15 2016, 03:27 PM

I can see myself streaming all versions next week 😂😂

I stand to make nearly £700 if they manage it 😍

Posted by: zenon Dec 15 2016, 03:42 PM

My prediction

1. Jo Cox and Friends
2. Clean Bandit
3. Ed Sheeran
4. Matt Terry
5. London Hospices Choir

Posted by: Davidson Dec 15 2016, 03:52 PM

Yeah, I am going to wait until tomorrow to buy Clean Bandit officially and also going to stream it all week. I would quite like £400 please.

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ Dec 15 2016, 03:57 PM

Yeah Zenons looks like it could be right (that's if Ed releases) however I'd replace the Choir with Mariah! I think the Choir is surely going to be overshadowed by the Jo Cox track this year.

Posted by: MyKindOfLove Dec 15 2016, 04:16 PM

Clean Bandit would be a bad Xmas #1. I'm sick of this zombie-fied tropical dance tripe - it's so bland and boring. Can see why a lot of people don't have a personality, it's this rubbish music. Jo Cox or Mariah for the #1.

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 15 2016, 04:22 PM

If Ed release something then he'll trounce Clean Bandit. It could probably clear 30k in curiosity streams alone let alone repeat listens and download sales!

Posted by: Lenny Dec 15 2016, 04:40 PM

Because Jo Cox's Friends is an example of REAL music?

Posted by: Mr. C. Joel Dec 15 2016, 04:53 PM

I doubt Eds going to release anything, I think the blue updates were just uploaded as He's come off social media for the time being?

Definitely, be buying Clean Bandit in all music stores and streaming all the versions from tomorrow haha!

Posted by: bah... humbug... Dec 15 2016, 04:59 PM

I don't mind having Rag'N'Bone Man at #1 next week, at least he get a few weeks at #1 if he wins the Sound of 2017 the week after.

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 15 2016, 05:14 PM

He left his social media on 13th December 2015, the blue image updates came exactly a year later! It's anyone's guess what it means precisely, but it does seem to indicate a return to social media / a tease of a new era.


I don't think that's very likely, 'Human' is #26 on Spotify, so his streaming would need to become a lot stronger - and sharpish!

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 15 2016, 05:15 PM

Oh you cannot put Clean Bandit in the same category as tropical house! Rockabye is poptastic and the very opposite of bland.

Posted by: scratchy23 Dec 15 2016, 05:42 PM

I don't think Ed would be allowed to release something. He penned the XF song. If Syco had any sense they'd write some clause in the contract that he can't release something on xmas week to avoid competition

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 15 2016, 06:10 PM

I doubt he'll release something tomorrow. It would be pretty shitty of him to try to compete with a charity record he'd written himself and I can't imagine he's bothered about getting a Christmas #1 of his own. I think the only reason he did that announcement the other day was because it was exactly a year since he'd stopped tweeting.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 15 2016, 06:35 PM

Just watching Prime Minister Questions from yesterday and they were talking a out the importance of downloading the Jo Cox single and Angus Robertson actually held up the cd single - didn't realise it was getting a physical release!

Posted by: chartdj Dec 15 2016, 06:41 PM

what time are the new contenders released? for now we have CB leading on streaming and matt on downloads

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 15 2016, 06:42 PM

The Christmas chart starts from midnight tonight!

Posted by: SevenSleighz Dec 15 2016, 06:59 PM

Clean Bandit down to 5/1 and lower on oddschecker now

But I guess if it's not the x factor getting the #1 then it has to be the charity single *shrug* (I still reckon Matt would have a really gold chance if they hadn't ditched the physical copies this time, kinda baffling tbh)

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 15 2016, 08:24 PM

More betting coverage than the Grand National on here.

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 15 2016, 08:36 PM

Odds with Coral

Friends Of Jo Cox 6-5f
Clean Bandit 4-1
Matt Terry 13-2
The London Hospices Choir 14-1
Louis Tomlinson and Steve Aoki 16-1
Rag N Bone Man 16-1
Inspiral Carpets 20-1
Louis Tomlinson 20-1
Ed Sheeran 20-1
Little Mix 25-1
Calvin Harris 33-1
Justin Bieber 40-1
Mariah Carey 50-1
James Corden 50-1
Rae Srummerd 50-1
Terry Wogan 50-1
James shinny Davenport 50-1
Greg Lake 66-1

Posted by: SevenSleighz Dec 15 2016, 08:36 PM

i guess you could say it's the Grand National for chart followers (only difference being the grand national is far more exciting and interesting every year )

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 15 2016, 08:38 PM

This year's is still wide open, big gamble from Clean Bandit from 25-1 to 4-1. This is the Grand National for chart followers.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 15 2016, 09:10 PM

It is wide open, but my gut feeling at this stage is that the charity single by Friends Of Jo Cox will take #1.

Clean Bandit are on their 9th week charting and starting to flag, probably on for around 55-60K next week which could easily surpassed by a well organised campaign. They may also even be overtaken by Rag'n'Bone Man...

Posted by: Dancember Dec 15 2016, 09:14 PM

Ladbrokes

4/5 Friends of Jo Cox
4/1 Clean Bandit
8/1 Rag'n'Bone Man
10/1 Matt Terry
10/1 London Hospices Choir
12/1 Louis Tomlinson
16/1 Inspiral Carpets
20/1 Ed Sheeran
25/1 James 'Shinny' Davenport
25/1 Little Mix
33/1 Calvin Harris
(50/1 Zaylor)

Clearly bookmakers are starting to realise the potential of current big hits like Clean Bandit and Rag'n'Bone Man to take the #1!

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 15 2016, 10:08 PM

Hmm...Human will really need to soar on sales or have a dramatic increase on streams to overcome Clean Bandit but I suppose it's not impossible.

Is this Jo Cox song available to listen to anywhere yet? Though I suppose what it sounds like is completely irrelevant, which is what irks me most about it being the favourite, it's based entirely on the sentiment behind the song as all charity records are, they might as well have just recorded a cover of John Cage's 4'33 because most people who download it will probably never listen to it.

I'm waiting for the day now where sales die off completely so we don't have to put up with this hijack at the top from irrelevant records that nobody likes but feels compelled to buy into to 'do a good thing'. I'm a huge charity supporter and donate a lot to good causes but would still never buy a song that I don't like, I'd donate to the charity instead if I felt compelled to do so. Then again, as we haven't heard it yet it might well be incredible!

I'll be interested to see how the Hospices Choir does now...this has completely taken the wind out of its sails as the media won't focus on both, and that record, which could have been a top 3 hit, will probably be lucky to make the top 10.

I'm also reminded of 'shock' charity flops in the past like It's Only Rock & Roll in 1999 and many of the recent Children In Need singles and wondering if that fate could befall these singles? Probably not, seeing as Xmas week is a different kettle of fish to any other week!

Posted by: The Hit Parade Dec 15 2016, 10:09 PM

Been done, mate.

Posted by: scratchy23 Dec 15 2016, 10:50 PM

At this point I think the Jo Cox song will get it easy

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 15 2016, 11:20 PM

The fact MPs will talk about it throughout the week and if it's no1 in the mids it's will have decent sales IMO!

Posted by: Davidson Dec 15 2016, 11:38 PM

Yeah, I agree, I think Jo Cox will get it easily.

If the charity single wins I'm up £7.50. If Clean Bandit do it I'm up £410.00. A little bit of a difference but at least I've hedged my bets either way. The charity single is for a good cause, so I can't bregrude if it gets more money for charity than it puts in my own pocket

Posted by: 1990 Dec 16 2016, 11:20 AM

Mariah is up to 3 on Spotify already and she has the Christmas Carpool coming up, I really don't think she is out of the race.

Posted by: Ricky Dec 16 2016, 11:38 AM

Bookies don't realise sh1t, they copy odds from Betfair with a build in percentage for themselves.

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 16 2016, 12:38 PM

Odds are determined by a) what punters are actually betting on and b) how the bookies will make the most money. It isn't just a prediction.

Posted by: Mango Dec 16 2016, 12:52 PM

Coral are offering 100/1 on Mariah at the moment might be worth a fiver if anyone's interested?

Posted by: Frosty Xmas Baps Dec 16 2016, 12:53 PM

Hmmm maybe.

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 16 2016, 01:17 PM

The bookies favourite has stalled at the first fence.

Posted by: richie Dec 16 2016, 02:50 PM

They showed quite a few clips of it on the news a week or so ago. It's a cover of "You Can't Always Get What You Want" by the Stones done Band Aid style. You can pretty much guess what it'll sound like.

The "why buy a CD, why not just stick a fiver in a box" debate has been going on for years. The best example was the awful mess Elton John made of Candle in the Wind, but people were buying armfuls of it. Given how much it sold, it must be by miles the least listened to record of all time by sales.

At least when Band Aid did it, the song was half decent, brand new and some people may have genuinely bought it because they quite liked it.

Posted by: Lenny Dec 16 2016, 03:03 PM

I really like that Elton John song, haha! Not the best example to use (IMO anyway)

Posted by: ElectroBoy Dec 16 2016, 03:17 PM

I put a fiver on at 100/1 a couple of weeks ago. Considering nothing has really made a big impact (although I guess you can never tell if there may be a media push as with last year... and Beebs telling people to buy the Choir) I do think Mariah is in with a chance. She's top 3 on streaming atm and bound to have mega figures over the weekend and into next week.

All the Christmas songs should also start advancing.

Its between Clean Bandit, Matt, Mariah and probably Rag'n'bone Man with an outside chance of the Jo Cox thing - although the charity singles have all seemed to stalled currently.

Posted by: zenon Dec 16 2016, 05:57 PM

Friends of Jo Cox and Clean Bandit now joint favourite at 7/4 at Betway!

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 16 2016, 06:12 PM

Come ON Clean Bandit, bag me that £200 Xmas present.

Sounds too good to be true though so no doubt the media will hype something up early next week.

Posted by: zenon Dec 16 2016, 06:19 PM

Clean Bandit now made favourites by Bet 365 at 7/4 with Jo's friends at 2/1.

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 16 2016, 06:21 PM

CB are now the favourite on Bet365. I'm still expecting a sudden media blitz propelling Friends Of Jo Cox to #1 like there was for the NHS Choir after Bieber was the favourite for a while but this is promising at least

Posted by: zenon Dec 16 2016, 06:23 PM

CB now also the new favourite at Ladbrokes.

Posted by: BillyH Dec 16 2016, 06:29 PM

Almost bet a tenner on CB when they were 15/1 a few days ago...might regret not doing that now! A worthy winner if so all the same!

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 16 2016, 06:33 PM

I wish I'd kept my £5 bet on them at 66/1 a few weeks ago lmao. Still currently have £5 on them at 20/1. x

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 16 2016, 06:34 PM

Mariah is at 34 on iTunes though. She would need ridiculous number of streams to make up for lack of downloads.

Posted by: ElectroBoy Dec 16 2016, 06:40 PM

She's top 15 or thereabouts combined on iTunes she's got 2 versions which are top 50 (ish)

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 16 2016, 06:45 PM

OK.. still well off though

Posted by: ElectroBoy Dec 16 2016, 07:10 PM

Well she's closer than a heck of a lot of other songs with shorter odds

Posted by: Pingu92 Dec 16 2016, 08:02 PM

Mariah needs to cut the price to 59p asap

Posted by: scratchy23 Dec 16 2016, 08:16 PM

Out of interest, how did last year's Christmas week go? Did the charity song lead from the start? I rememebr there being more media attention towards the end of the week but can't remember if it was already a foregone conclusion at the start that nhs would win?

Posted by: Col1967 Dec 16 2016, 08:57 PM

From what I recall it was only in the last couple of days that the NHS choir looked like snatching it. Massive media hype and poor Justin Bieber being compelled to ask people to buy that rather than his own single.
I am hoping that as time goes on and streaming becomes ever more prevalent that nonsense charity singles like that become a thing of the past.

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 16 2016, 09:00 PM

NHS Choir shot into an early (small) lead on iTunes and then Bieber overtook them quite quickly, then there was a massive media blitz which resulted in NHS Choir rebounding strongly and getting a huge lead and ultimately the #1. Helped a bit by Bieber himself tweeting support for it.

I think NHS Choir was also #1 on the early midweek update(s) but Bieber overtook in the middle of the week? Not 100% sure.

The Jo Cox single is off to a much weaker start but it's completely too early to rule it out as I'm sure it'll get plenty of media coverage as well.

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 16 2016, 10:23 PM

Throwing all my support behind Mariah! £210 for me if she does it (I placed £10 on her at 20/1; I wish I'd waited because Bet365 had her at 33/1 in the end, but never mind).

To those who have placed a bet on her, don't lose faith. Do all that you can to help her along! So far I've bought three of her dance remixes [with a free £5 Google Play gift voucher via O2, so no real expenditure] and have streamed various different versions a few times on Spotify.


Adele is also here for a Mariah Christmas #1.




I actually placed small amounts on Clean Bandit, Jo Cox & (somewhat foolishly) Hospices in an attempt to cover myself. Would win £9.76, £6.80 or £8.80 respectively... so if Mariah can't manage it, I'll accept Clean Bandit.

Posted by: chartdj Dec 16 2016, 10:42 PM

so after day 1 CB should be in the lead overall

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 16 2016, 11:16 PM

That's exactly how it unfolded - the important part being the early mids lead which meant the media got behind it as it was at no1 and it went from there. Obv with streaming helping Justin ease ahead as the week went on the promo of Bieber was also a gamechanger!

Posted by: BillyH Dec 16 2016, 11:44 PM

I remember a lot of posts suggesting that the NHS Choir had no chance until very late in the week, about the point Bieber tweeted his support. Surprised a fair few people in those last few days!

Posted by: chartdj Dec 17 2016, 12:21 PM

the charity songs are not getting a boost even today

Posted by: Pingu92 Dec 17 2016, 01:13 PM

Mariah up to #10 on iTunes combined and #2 spotify. Still some hope..

Jo Cox single has fallen from #11 on iTunes to #15

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 17 2016, 01:23 PM

The first mids are in (though the Friday Chart Predictions thread isn't up yet so I'll have to post them here)

http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/london-hospices-choir-rag-n-bone-man-and-inspiral-carpets-lead-christmas-number-1-race-after-24-hours__17538/

Hospices Choir #1! But this is based only on Friday sales and no streams of course...still, how did they do that when they never went top 10 on iTunes?

Posted by: Dobbo Dec 17 2016, 01:28 PM

Must be physicals. They were my shout ages ago and haven't changed my mind on that front although Jo Cox has a chance with a big media story. I refuse to believe a normal song will be #1.

Posted by: chartdj Dec 17 2016, 01:37 PM

are there figures for the top songs? I can't see the link from my phone

Posted by: seltinpixmile Dec 17 2016, 01:41 PM

The difference between the Top songs should be small, as Human was 0.01 ahead Matt yesterday on iTunes and is 2 spots ahead in the mid.

Posted by: zenon Dec 17 2016, 01:53 PM

Clean Bandit now all the bookies' favourite.

Posted by: bluebitchboy Dec 17 2016, 02:48 PM

After winning last years betting, and actually making a killing by cashing out on justin bieber at just the right time, I have staked my cash on clean bandit - got 20/1 on Thursday.
Was going to put a small secondary bet on Mariah, but it's just not going to happen. And I think this year the 2 big charity singles will cancel each other out. I'm very confident clean bandit will get this with ease.

Posted by: zenon Dec 17 2016, 02:55 PM

Friends of Jo Cox now down to 4/1. Unless the single generates huge media coverage then I think Clean Bandit have it in the bag.

Posted by: Davidson Dec 17 2016, 02:56 PM

So glad I got Clean Bandit when they were 20/1. Feeling very opptumistic right about now.

Posted by: Mikal Dec 17 2016, 02:59 PM

Yeh I got Clean Bandit at 25/1 and could win £650 which is looking promising now!

Posted by: BillyH Dec 17 2016, 03:54 PM

The Christmas Top of the Pops is going to need some frantic re-editing if Clean Bandit win - you've got Rockabye as a scheduled studio performance and an Xmas #1 "revealed" at the end of the show, presumably by just playing the video. As they can hardly air Rockabye twice, they might have to shift the performance to the end - but now Fearne & Reggie's link won't work and the episode is four minutes too short. Hmm...

Posted by: zenon Dec 17 2016, 04:00 PM

I was thinking that earlier.

Posted by: zenon Dec 17 2016, 04:27 PM

Friends of Jo Cox - 11/2

Posted by: Col1967 Dec 17 2016, 04:55 PM

I think this will be something of a roller-coaster ride, especially for those who have bets on!
The same thing happened last year, those who bet on Bieber at good odds thought they were quids in but we all know what happened.

Posted by: AcerBen Dec 17 2016, 05:01 PM

It'll be fine. They record the shows in four separate recordings as it is so it's not like it's filmed as one show end to end like back in the day. They'll just shove in an extra performance from Glastonbury/Teen Awards/whatever and no one will know!

Posted by: bah... humbug... Dec 17 2016, 05:12 PM

I think Clean Bandit have got this now, its got potential to stay longer at #1 though probably another week or 2, with the 2 TOTP performances unless Human picks up a gear, goodness knows what their sales will be like by than.

10 #1s of 2016 if nothing else gets in the way when compared to 40+ last year, anyway that's going off topic a bit.

I must admit its pretty nice to have a normal track at the top on Christmas week, than the usual Charity or X Factor tracks, hopefully more artists will suddenly realise to release new material around the same time.

Posted by: RobBob Dec 17 2016, 05:21 PM

I got Clean Bandit at 66/1 with a whole 50p!

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 17 2016, 05:40 PM

I hope you'll took the price with Clean Bandit. Please say you did.

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 17 2016, 05:45 PM

Odds (Coral)


Clean Bandit 4-7f
Friends Of Jo Cox 4-1
Liv N G 7-1
The London Hospices Choir 14-1
Inspiral Carpets 20-1
Matt Terry 25-1
Rag N Bone Man 25-1
Little Mix 25-1
Louis Tomlinson and Steve Aok 28-1
Mariah Carey 33-1
James shinny Davebport 33-1

Posted by: Lenny Dec 17 2016, 05:59 PM

I think the only one I'd put my money on that isn't Clean Bandit now is Matt Terry, and that would probably be a silly idea

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 17 2016, 09:21 PM

I so wish I'd put more than £8 on Clean Bandit!

Posted by: jase. Dec 17 2016, 11:48 PM

Just put £50 on Clean Bandit with William Hill. I'll get back £80.76 if they are #01 Not much compared to some of you but oh well

Posted by: Davidson Dec 18 2016, 01:39 PM

This week is making me so excited.

I love 'Rockabye' even more if it's gonna get me £460

Posted by: zenon Dec 18 2016, 01:40 PM

Clean Bandit - 4/9
Jo Cox - 9/1

CB can only throw it away now.

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 18 2016, 01:48 PM

I'm surprised that the Jo Cox charity single is not doing that well, I presume that this may be because:

a) It is not very good (though that never stopped NHS choir last year)
b) Sentiment is pretty negative towards MPs in general, regardless of the tragedy surrounding Jo's death.

Should the #1 actually be Clean Bandit it will be the first time since 2004 that the #1 on the Christmas chart was not a new entry (or change from previous week, i.e. climber).

Posted by: Danta Claus Dec 18 2016, 01:54 PM

I think it's because people are bored of charity singles now, only a few thousand people are going to buy singles just because they're for charity which isn't enough for #1. Not to mention no one wants to stream them.

Posted by: jakewild Dec 18 2016, 03:09 PM

sameee

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 18 2016, 03:23 PM

So if you put a tenner on CB now how much would you get back?

The thing about the no1 race this week is it won't take much to turn things around as Rockabye will only sell 60-65k so any hype by the OCC that reaches the media could change things!

Posted by: zenon Dec 18 2016, 03:38 PM

Friends of Jo Cox now third favourites behind weirdly Liv 'N' G.

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 18 2016, 03:46 PM

Current odds are 2/5 on Bet365, so £10 would get back £14 at the moment.

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 18 2016, 03:46 PM

Christ!

Posted by: scratchy23 Dec 18 2016, 04:04 PM

Very happy and very excited that I got CB at 25/1 with a tenner

Should hopefully be a nice early Xmas present for me!

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 18 2016, 06:22 PM

Coral

Clean Bandit 2-5f
Friends of Jox Cox 6-1
Liv N G 8-1
The London Hospics Choir 16-1
Rag N Bone Man 20-1
Inspiral Carpets 20-1
Matt Terry 25-1

First 'normal' Christmas No1 since 2003 for Clean Bandit excluding X Factor/Popstars/ charity singles, chart campaigns.

Posted by: n4yr Dec 18 2016, 06:42 PM

And if you exclude cover songs and novelty records, it's the first since the Spice Girls

Posted by: Dobbo Dec 18 2016, 06:48 PM

Nothing is decided yet. All it takes is a huge boost for something from out of nowhere, I do hope clean Bandit take it though.

Posted by: zenon Dec 18 2016, 07:45 PM

Clean Bandit are in the equivalent of a 3-0 lead in a footy match with 36 minutes played.

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 18 2016, 08:29 PM

Clean Bandit's sales are still not going to be anything special though so it won't take THAT big an event to shift things. I'm not getting too excited until maybe Wednesday.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 18 2016, 08:58 PM

Me and my parents were listening to the Vodafone Big Top 40 and when my dad heard Rag'n'Bone Man was number one he insisted that he would put £20 on him being Xmas number one at 16/1.. I told him that he didn't stand a chance but nope

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 18 2016, 09:13 PM

Rag'n'Bone Man has just had a worryingly big jump on iTunes. Panic panic panic

(lol)

Posted by: Dobbo Dec 18 2016, 09:18 PM

As was Bieber last year but we all remember how that turned out.

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 18 2016, 09:32 PM

Human odds SHORTENING DRAMATICALLY, down as low as 6/1 with some places. Dramatic music plays

Posted by: zenon Dec 18 2016, 09:42 PM

Clean Bandit now in a 3-1 lead with 37 minutes played!

Posted by: christmdhas Dec 18 2016, 10:00 PM

are you going to be providing these updates in real time

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 18 2016, 10:12 PM

Though last week despite being ahead on sales he was around 20K behind so streaming will definitely mean he ends up #2 (at the highest).

Posted by: Davidson Dec 19 2016, 12:48 AM

Yeah I don't see how Rag'N'Bone Man could do it. Doing the maths shows he will always fall slightly short.

Clean Bandit are being streamed 400,000 thousand times a day, compared to Rag'N'Bone Man's 170,000. Say Rag'N'Bone Man manages to rise massively on Spotify to 200,000 streams average for the week and Clean Bandit fall down a bit to 370,000 thousand on average daily, that would mean Clean Bandit would rack up 26,000 streaming sales compared to 14,000 streaming sales for Rag'N'Bone Man.

That would mean that Rag'N'Bone Man would need to sell around 13k more than Clean Bandit on downloads. Clean Bandit sold 22k pure sales last week, so if we take that down to 20k this week, 13k then starts to seem like a mountain to climb. To sell 13k more Rag'N'Bone Man would probably need to get Clean Bandit down to less than 0.5 of it in the next couple of days on iTunes seeing as the last few days the gap has been less than 0.1 on sales, even when combined.

Even at that I'm being generous with the Spotify boost I'm giving Rag'N'Bone Man for the week too, seeing as he's come nowhere near to 200,000 streams the last few days. He would have to skyrocket on sales to beat Clean Bandit I think, I'm still seeing him around a good 5k behind if not more so.

I feel like my £450 is safe as of yet

Posted by: gooddelta Dec 19 2016, 08:42 AM

I do agree with all that for sure though if there is any week for logic and sales patterns to go out the window (with a little help from media hyping) then it's Xmas week. It's hard to pre-empt what they will get behind, if anything, or if the public will take any notice of them.

But yeah, it looks pretty damn good for Clean Bandit right now!

It is weird just how poorly Human is doing on streaming at the moment though, wonder why anything remotely alternative struggles so much (like Tilted too) yet are big sales hits. I guess this one just needs traction though and will pick up on streaming in the new year.

Posted by: bah... humbug... Dec 19 2016, 08:54 AM

I'm hoping he will get the boost from the sound of 2017 if he wins that's usually announced the first week of January ain't it an a Friday though when the winner is announced. So technically he has to wait another week.

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 19 2016, 03:42 PM

6-1 on now for Clean Bandit with Rag N Bone Man at 4-1.

The rest 20-1 above.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 19 2016, 04:16 PM

I think Clean Bandit are 1-6

Posted by: zenon Dec 19 2016, 04:18 PM

1-6 does mean 6-1 on though.

Posted by: Hollyver Dec 19 2016, 04:19 PM

That's what Mack meant by "6-1 on".

EDIT

Beaten to it!

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 19 2016, 04:22 PM

Ahh ok, I don't understand odds

So 6-1 is 1-6?

Posted by: zenon Dec 19 2016, 04:42 PM

Clean Bandit 1/10 with a few bookies.

Posted by: JingleBellsMack Dec 19 2016, 05:19 PM

It's all right, I know my odds from the horse racing.

Yes 6-1 on means 1-6 it is a phrase that sometimes bookies use.

So with some bookies, Clean Bandit are 10-1 on which would be 1-10.

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 19 2016, 06:41 PM

Calvin Harris is the 3rd favourite now

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 19 2016, 07:24 PM

I can now cash out for £90 at bet365... do I really care that much about the extra £15...

(leaving it for now xx)

Posted by: Danta Claus Dec 19 2016, 07:25 PM

Is he planning on releasing a surprise single tomorrow then? Why would he be in the running?

Posted by: Michael Bubré Dec 19 2016, 07:28 PM

I think that just means that 'Rockabye' and 'Human' are the only viable challengers at this stage. (Seems to be only one bookie offering odds on Calvin according to Oddschecker anyway so it's pretty irrelevant).

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 Dec 21 2016, 08:27 PM

Clean Bandit 1/200 on Betfred

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 21 2016, 10:50 PM

With sales so low I was too scared to put on that much cash in case something happened randomly lol

Posted by: Dmdr Dec 22 2016, 12:54 AM

Well I originally bet on Mariah getting the number 1 several weeks ago when she was already doing so well on streaming, but covered myself when I seen the way things were going a week or two ago and managed to put £10 on Clean Bandit at 25/1, so should get a nice return come Friday.

Posted by: MusiqqisuM Dec 22 2016, 01:18 PM

Given it's almost impossible for Dave Clark Five to be Christmas No. 1, why is no one putting a lay bet aginst them? You could win some very easy money e.g. a £10 lay bet against Dave Clark Five being no. 1 tomorrow would win you £3,700 via Betfair.....unless I've misunderstood things.

Posted by: christmdhas Dec 22 2016, 01:30 PM

How do you do that?

Posted by: MARIAH. Dec 22 2016, 06:12 PM

*Does not understand lay betting, oop* I am feeling rather tired though. :')

I'll just have to make do with my stunning £9.76 winnings from Clean Bandit being #1 tomorrow, ha. (I did a stake of just £2.44 at 3/1. I certainly wish with hindsight that I'd placed more than that, but at the time of making this bet I was worried at the possibility of one of the charity singles being a runaway Christmas #1... sigh, that seems laughable now!).

Posted by: Mr. C. Joel Dec 22 2016, 07:24 PM

You wouldn't win that amount youD make a loss of £3,700 because the figures are in the minus.

I wonder if that means if you placed the bet you would actually end up owing Betfair money? I went to do it and realised it stated 'liable -£1.689 on a £2 bet haha

Posted by: Sagand Dec 22 2016, 07:47 PM

When you lay an outcome you set the backer stake aka your winnings rather than how much you want to bet. So the £2 would be your winnings and the £1,689 is how much you'd have to bet to win that.

Posted by: MusiqqisuM Dec 22 2016, 09:28 PM

You should see two options. One labelled "payout" and one labeled "liability". At current odds 840 I see a £2 lay bet resulting in a £1680 payout (if they don't reach no. 1) and £1678 liability (if they do reach no. 1)

Posted by: richKringle Dec 23 2016, 08:06 AM

Several newspapers are reporting the Dave Clark Five as being genuine contenders now thanks to thousands of Rangers fans downloading it. Is it still an impossibility or have things changed now?

Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 23 2016, 08:13 AM

We'll get the figures around 10.30 but it looks like they'll end up around the #30 mark.

Since when have newspapers been a trusted source?

Posted by: richKringle Dec 23 2016, 09:35 AM

Heh, that's what I thought. But then I remembered how low the midweek sales were for Clean Bandit etc. and figured that Rangers fanbase could easily get 50k people to download through a quick social media campaign. If they had a big push last night before the chart deadline then you never know...

But I'd be happy if they fail to get it as high as Aberdeen fans got The Human League a few years back!

Posted by: Steve201 Dec 23 2016, 10:12 AM

The papers just need to fill column inches at this quiet time - so they look on iTunes OKane think that's no1!

Posted by: Danta Claus Dec 23 2016, 10:45 AM

They sold about 10k in the last 24 hours according to digital sales data, nowhere near enough to be #1.