A little later than last year but it's once again time for the odds thread! Last year of course Italy were the hot favourites right up until the week of the contest, which shows that the odds means absolutely nothing yet! However let's take at the current list, these are the best prices you can currently get according to https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision!
7/3 Israel
8/1 Estonia
9/1 Czech Republic
17/1 Australia
19/1 Bulgaria
20/1 Belgium
22/1 Netherlands
22/1 Sweden
26/1 Norway
29/1 Spain
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33/1 France
41/1 Greece
49/1 Belarus
64/1 Finland
66/1 Austria
69/1 Italy
79/1 Germany
84/1 Portugal
94/1 Denmark
100/1 Armenia
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109/1 Azerbaijan
109/1 Ukraine
139/1 Russia
159/1 Cyprus
229/1 Lithuania
259/1 Latvia
329/1 United Kingdom
349/1 Malta
409/1 Serbia
549/1 San Marino
559/1 Macedonia
559/1 Moldova
569/1 Romania
689/1 Hungary
709/1 Montenegro
719/1 Albania
719/1 Poland
719/1 Ireland
739/1 Slovenia
819/1 Croatia
889/1 Georgia
909/1 Switzerland
999/1 Iceland
I'd already put a £10 each way on Sweden when Benjamin won Melodifestivalen at 12/1, annoying that they've already gone out but that's the name of the game!
I got my £5 each way on Estonia when it was 12/1 or 10/1 icr
Ukraine being as far south as 100/1 is CRAZY good value!
Am I missing the reason why Finland is plummeting in the odds? I've placed bets on them and Ukraine with a safety bet on Israel.
I assume it's just a mix of Israel being the clear favourite and that more countries have confirmed with safer, guaranteed hits?
Plus, I think it’s easy to conflate where something is on the odds with where it’ll place. So Finland, for example, are pretty unlikely to win but that doesn’t mean that they’re unlikely to get, say, a top 10 or top 15.
What was the odd same time last year? Is there any truth to them?
Buzzjack getting that promo! https://www.escxtra.com/2018/03/25/eleven-years-eurovision-odds/
But it is interesting how all of last year's top 5 favourites were in the eventual top 6. I can't see them being anywhere near as accurate this year despite how amazing that would be!
Current odds (following Eurovision In Concert) courtsey of Skybet:
01 · 7/4 · Israel: Netta - Toy
02 · 11/2 · Bulgaria: EQUINOX - Bones
03 · 13/2 · Czech Republic: Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
04 · 8/1 · Australia: Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love
05 · 9/1 · Estonia: Elina Nechayeva - La forza
06 · 16/1 · Sweden: Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off
07 · 20/1 · France: Madame Monsieur - Mercy
08 · 20/1 · Norway: Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song
09 · 25/1 · Belgium: Sennek - A Matter Of Time
10 · 25/1 · Spain: Alfred & Amaia - Tu cancion
11 · 28/1 · Greece: Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou
12 · 33/1 · Italy: Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - Non mi avete fatto niente
13 · 40/1 · The Netherlands: Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em
14 · 50/1 · Finland: Saara Aalto - Monsters
15 · 66/1 · Austria: Cesar Sampson - Nobody But You
16 · 66/1 · Belarus: Alekseev - Forever
17 · 66/1 · Cyprus: Eleni Foureira - Fuego
18 · 66/1 · Germany: Michael Schulte - You Let Me Walk Alone
19 · 66/1 · Portugal: Claudia Pascoal - O jardim
20 · 80/1 · Armenia: Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
21 · 80/1 · Ukraine: MELOVIN - Under The Ladder
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100/1 · Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, United Kingdom
150/1 · Latvia
200/1 · FYR Macedonia, Hungary, Ireland, Malta
250/1 · Albania, Croatia, Georgia, Iceland, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Semi Final One - odds to qualify (courtsey of Unibet):
01 · 1/50 · Israel: Netta - Toy
02 · 1/14 · Czech Republic: Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
03 · 1/9 · Estonia: Elina Nechayeva - La forza
04 · 1/7 · Bulgaria: Equinox - Bones
05 · 1/7 · Greece: Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou
06 · 1/4 · Belgium: Sennek - A Matter Of Time
07 · 33/100 · Cyprus: Eleni Foureira - Fuego
08 · 2/5 · Armenia: Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
09 · 2/5 · Austria: Cesar Sampson - Nobody But You
10 · 13/20 · Azerbaijan: Aisel - X My Heart
______________________________________________________
11 · 17/20 · Finland: Saara Aalto - Monsters
12 · Evens · Lithuania: Ieva Zasimauskaite - When We're Old
13 · 6/4 · Belarus: ALEKSEEV - Forever
14 · 7/4 · Ireland: Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together
15 · 5/2 · FYR Macedonia: Eye Cue - Lost and Found
16 · 3/1 · Albania: Eugent Bushpepa - Mall
17 · 3/1 · Switzerland: Zibbz - Stones
18 · 4/1 · Croatia: Franka - Crazy
19 · 10/1 · Iceland: Ari Olafsson - Our Choice
Semi Final Two - odds to qualify (courtesy of Unibet):
01 · 1/20 · Sweden: Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off
02 · 1/14 · Australia: Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love
03 · 1/14 · Ukraine: MELOVIN - Under The Ladder
04 · 1/9 · Norway: Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song
05 · 1/7 · Netherlands: Waylon - Outlaw in 'Em
06 · 33/100 · Poland: Gromee (feat. Lukas Meijer) - Light Me Up
07 · 4/11 · Denmark: Rasmussen - Higher Ground
08 · 11/25 · Moldova: DoReDos - My Lucky Day
09 · 11/20 · Russia: Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break
10 · 13/20 · Latvia: Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl
___________________________________________________________
11 · 4/5 · Hungary: AWS - Viszlát Nyár
12 · 4/5 · Romania: The Humans - Goodbye
13 · 11/10 · Serbia: Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova Deca
14 · 5/2 · Montenegro: Vanja Radovanovic - Inje
15 · 5/2 · Slovenia: Lea Sirk - Hvala ne
16 · 11/4 · Georgia: Iriao - For You
17 · 11/4 · Malta: Christabelle - Taboo
18 · 10/1 · San Marino: Jessika (feat. Jenifer Brening) - Who We Are
Bookies are tipping Finland to miss out... I must provisionally book a place in the Betty Ford clinic for 9th May.
Norway have largely risen to second favourite. This is very unnerving.
Part of me wants to say oh that's just name power, because honestly it is possiby the most embarrassing song I've ever heard in Eurovision, but I can't shake the feeling that it will do well :/ I just can't, it genuinely sounds like something that San Marino would send in 2007 and get 2 points in the semi. We shouldn't always give the bookies so much stock but I still can't help but be worried by it
Norway will do well, I don't think it's a winner because I don't see juries being particularly kind to it, definitely top 10 though - maybe it'll do a Michal Szpak.
I think people are getting a bit too enthusiastic based on the good reception he got in MGP (and don't seem to have gone by - he's the returning record breaking champion, it would be news if he DIDN'T get a huge reception with whatever he turned up with!).
HA laughing at Rybak haters. I knew it would be great, it's a catchy song.
By the way, Israel to win and Bulgaria to flop please.
Well if it does win at least Rybak will have one of the best and worst ever winners to his name and I'll be holding out for a Marie N masterpiece in 2019 to redress the balance.
But hopefully the juries will come through, or the public won't be as into it as the odds suggest, it really is a tacky, cringeworthy and just generally dire song. It's catchy but I'm hoping that can only take it so far...
Can’t cope with the thought of Saara not even getting to the final. Surely with the UK voting she will make it?
Yeah hopefully! After all odds are based on what people are placing money on by and large, and there are probably a lot of people who aren't as into it as us but like to bet on Eurovision each year.
I'm normally "each to their own", like I hated Amar Pelois Dos but can see what people *did* see in it. With this Rybak song I just genuinely cannot fathom how on earth people enjoy it ://// It's an absolute embarrassment, there are fans like "people hate it because it's cool to!!1!" no it's because it's genuinely f***ing horrendous
If you look at the top 3/5 of juries from past years, they are either contemporary pop songs or have a classic sound. Rybak has neither - this verges into novelty and I’m trying to fathom juries putting this even as high as left side. It’s insipid.
I dont see Norway making the top 5 in the final.
Cyprus are flying up the betting, currently top 5 in some places ahead of Bulgaria and Czech Republic
I put a bet on Cyprus to finish top 10 at 7/4 the other day, glad I got in there when I did as they’re much shorter now!
I think Cyprus are a lot more likely than Israel. I've been thinking for a few days now that Israel isn't going to have what it takes to go all the way.
I can see Cyprus finishing top 10, but then I can also see them doing an IMRI from last year if she gets a first half draw. If Greece and Albania both DNQ then I think she'll be a lock for top 10 though.
If I was going to bet on a top 10 finish I think I'd go for Hungary.
I don't think Israel is anything great and likewise with Norway but Cyprus has something very appealing.
come on and slay them all cyprus yasssss
I put a bet for Cyprus to win when they were at 66/1, you can do this Cyprus !!
I can’t bring myself to get too excited though. La La Love is a flawless pop song and probably my favourite Eurovision song and it couldn’t even make top 10. 😩
Top 5: Israel - Norway - Estonia - Cyprus - France
Moldova is now top 10.
Cyprus top 4 <3 how amazing it would be if it won
Have finally put my annual bets on:
£2 each-way on Sweden to win @ 20/1 (I think it has a good shot at top four at least, and surely most countries will score it well)
£5 on Hungary to finish top 10 @ 4.86/1 (random odds but I used a bet boost, Hungary are no strangers to the top 10 and this will really stand out)
£2 on Estonia to win @ 5/1 (if Netta fails then this will surely be next in line)
£3 on Ireland to qualify @ 3/1 (still wouldn't be at all surprised to see this in the final)
£1 on Denmark to finish top 10 @ 7/2 (Depends how 'epic' it comes across on screen but it has the potential to be a moment/big Twitter viral moment etc)
I'm increasingly getting winner vibes from Fuego, it feels like at the very least the City Lights of the year in that it's the obvious commercial hit after the contest but unlike Blanche's whole deer in headlights thing, Eleni seems to be selling it for her life with such a firey (pun slightly intended x) and energetic performance. I'm still very worried about Norway though If that can just stay WELL AWAY then any of the realistic contenders I'm happy with.
My bets are Estonia each way and Hungary top 10 so fingers crossed one of them comes in, I'm still not over betting OG3NE to be top 10 last year and they were 11th with 8 points between them and top 10
Cyprus has overtaken Estonia and is closing on Israel
EDIT: Looking at Oddschecker she's joint with Israel on some and overtaken on a couple!!! I'm so here for Salvador to have to hand over to "yeah yeah fire" after she wins with a pyrotechnic performance given he said "music isn't about fireworks"
This is exactly what happened to Portugal last year, come on Cyprus!
Ooooh, how interesting!
Does Cyprus even have a venue big enough to host the damn thing though? Their biggest concert venue is listed as a 6,000 seater open air football stadium.
I think they’d have to host in their JESC 2008 venue in Limassol!
Amazed Cyprus (or anyone) have overtaken Israel! Is the latter starting to collapse under the intense overhype and going to go the same way as Italy last year?
Fuego would be a fantastic winner, it’s a high quality modern pop song but I wonder what makes it so much more of a smash than La La Love (which to me is still a better song...). Maybe Euphoria just snatched all of Ivi’s votes and Eleni won’t be up against such competition in the female dance pop stakes.
Cyprus is officially the favourite according to Eurovision World!
Cyprus now favourite - oh my actual goodness!!! How fantastic is that? I have to say, the more I've heard "Fuego" since it was launched, the closer and closer it has gotten to France in my rankings. It started off 4th behind France, Finland and Israel and is now 2nd. I'd LOVE to see this win. And to be honest, I actually think it sounds like more of a winner than anything else this year.
Cyprus being the favorite is absolutely making my day. The press reception to Eleni has been MASSIVE and I'm so excited to see her slay tonight!
I was just thinking a couple of days ago about that run of Sertbab, Ruslana and Helena *.* What a glorious step up that would be from Amar Pelois Dos. I'm so glad Eleni is proving us wrong, I remember me and Cameron saying she was gonna flop live because it just seemed like the sort of song that would be a banger let down by the vocals or performance! How wrong that was, she comes on stage and it's like they've got a worldwide superstar for the interval rather than a contestant! For me it's what Eurovision is about, selling a brilliant pop song as a whole package, it doesn't have to be overwrought "real music" and a cloud of pretentiousness. Like I said Fuego feels like the obvious commercial hit from this year, but she is obviously selling it much better than Blanche did so I feel like she really has a chance whereas I never let that thought take me with Blanche for example.
I love Fuego but I don’t envisage it winning? I still think Estonia/Israel top two.
Thankfully Rybak's odds are in red across the board (ie they're lengthening) on Oddschecker whereas Eleni is in blue across the board, I was worried he'd overtake Not that odds mean anything but it puts my worries at rest a bit.
I feel Israel has been over hyped for so long, it will do very well in the final but don't see it winning.
Estonia, could be in with a chance as from the favourites i feel Estonia will do much better with the juries than the others will. That said, i cant see Estonia topping the public vote but could see Cyprus doing it.
I will just put it out there but i can see Ireland coming for that top 10 finish shocker. It is so different to everything else in the competition and appears to be gaining interest. I am really finding it hard to predict Finland, i thought Sarra was fantastic in the semi final and performed brilliantly and would love her to win outright this year but it doesn't look like it will happen.
When We're Old will be the shock package if anything, the more I hear that I feel like it could do a mini Calm Before The Storm! Together is just not that good of a song, and as Iz says everything it supposedly has about it, something does it better imo and I can't see it standing out.
Rybak has COLLAPSED to 16/1 *.*
oops! I still think he'll finish top five but I really can't see past a Cyprus win at this stage.
Sweden is basically on the brink of leapfrogging Norway out of the top 5 entirely!
Ukraine as low as 100/1?
GET THOSE EW BETS ON QUICK
GOOD
karma's there when you need it
Lovin' the (well deserved) current bottom 3: Albania, Serbia and Slovenia.
Live footage of Rybak's odds:
Oddschecker's changing by the minute but i THINK Sweden's just overtaken Norway!! (At least for most bookies). Also Germany is closing in very fast on the top 5....
Norway has drifted an incredible amount! As long as 20/1 now given they were up with Cyprus, who have shot quite far ahead of the competition now at 5/4 in some places!
I've never seen anything like it, mental
Sweden also look like they're ready to overtake France into fourth place as well!
The clip of France clearly didn't do much for the audience! Could grab a nice 'each way' vote on them if they drift far enough
All of this after Rybak was basically the fave song of all the bettingbros makes it all the sweeter <3
I think France are gonna be lucky to be top 5 now unfortunately. It certainly seems the year of the uptempo (*.*)
Norway falling to 9th below Ireland in the odds yaassssss
Ireland continuing to rise, rise, rise!
Lithuania on the drop now after being drawn 4th.
UK have climbed off the bottom, displacing Serbia... have UK got any chance of anything above last place I wonder
omfg Ireland now 4th favourites!!!
This is amazing - it still feels like absolutely no one has any idea as to how well anyone's going to do. It seems like Cyprus has won it but from memory Australia or Russia were in the lead this time in 2016.
Ireland's surge might just be from Irish betters getting overexcited that they're a) in the final and b) not terrible - a more extreme version of Lucie Jones shooting up the odds last year. But maybe they acrually are in for a good result this time?
Ireland now into 3rd
Things have gone a bit crazy.
I'm really struggling to see Ireland that high on Saturday
I'm struggling to see past Eleni winning, Netta *could* do it as she will likely strike a chord with casuals hearing it and falling in love with how crazy it is on first listen. The rest of the top 5 is anyone's guess, I feel like something like Moldova or Hungary will sneak up there alongside Netta, Eleni and probably Benjamin/Michael/maybe Ieva fighting for the rest of the top 5. Ireland maybe like 10th.
Then again a top 5 of something like Netta, Eleni, Benjamin, Michael and Ieva seems WAY too good to be true, Rybak will probably sneak in too with a massive televote.
TBH I imagine Israel and Cyprus are probably far enough ahead that the rest of the pack between 3rd and about 10th is all quite close together.
Should have put an each-way on Ireland on Sunday, rather than just a bet on them qualifying for the final. But I would have never expected it to contend for the top five, as lovely as it is.
Imagine if you’d said in 2014 that just 4 contests later we’d have a top 5 in the odds of Cyprus, Israel, Ireland, France and Germany/Lithuania!
I had Ireland as a no-hoper until I seen it on the night. I think it’ll do well in western states. Either way, we’re looking at a very unpredictable final potentially.
Just had a tenner on Ukraine to come top 10 at 5/2.
I don't think Ireland's position in the odds will be reflected in the final at all. I thought it was something to do with the whole China being banned after censoring the Irish song and there being a general increase in interest with it.
It is a wide open final this year which should make the voting exciting. I hope its a close run contest and not a runaway winner as it adds to the voting.
Israel, Estonia, Cyprus and possibly Norway look like the front runners but the remainder of the top 10 is hard to predict.
Ireland and Moldova i believe could finish top 10.
SuRie deserves to be on the left side of the scoreboard but like so many others it is hard to predict.
I will be extremely disappointed if Finland flop as i want Sarra to do well.
Remember take the price when betting on Eurovision.
Took Cyprus at 66/1 back in April.
Praying that Ireland stay on the right side of the scoreboard
Omg at Ireland being 719/1 on the first page of this thread two months ago and now they’re 3rd favourites to win at 9/1
Does Cyprus stand a very good chance now?
I'm fairly sure it'll win the televote, the jury vote is maybe more of a question mark but it's definitely the front runner.
I’m ready for Fuego to smash the charts
I think France will win the jury vote and Cyprus the tele vote. I predict a tight contest between Cyprus, Israel and France tomorrow! My top 3 as well
I think Cyprus is a very feasible jury winner. Big pop banger that is chart ready, performed brilliantly she she looks like a true pop star.
Her vocals aren't exactly nailed on, though it is a fantastic and captivating performance. I don't know how strict they are on vocals being spot on...
^^ I was meaning the juries not the public
I kept playing his mess up in that semi to my friend when I was in Australia a couple of months ago, we couldn't stop laughing about it!
Where do I put my money if I'm wanting to make a bet tonight guys?
Moldova or Ukraine to finish top 10 after the ex-Soviet wipe out in the semis.
Nice one guys, I plumped for Cyprus and a small e/w for Ukraine.
United Kingdom are actually the favourites to finish last!
Odds (William Hill)
Cyprus 6-5f
Israel 3-1
Ireland 7-1
France 16-1
Lithuania 20-1
Italy 20-1
Sweden 25-1
Germany 25-1
Estonia 28-1
Norawy 33-1
Finland 40-1
Moldova 50-1
Bulgaria 50-1
Australia 50-1
Czech Republic 50-1
United Kingdom 50-1 from 150-1
Denmark 66-1
Hungary 66-1
Ukraine 100-1
Austria 150-1
Netherlands 150-1
Spain 150-1
Albania 200-1
Serbia 200-1
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