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 Political Predictions 2019 |
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 Jan 1 2019, 09:01 AM
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#1
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561 
   
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So 2019 will undoubtably be an interesting year, whether it is the current expected date of the UK's departure from the EU (29 March) or the continuing rise of populism worldwide and especially in Europe where new European Parliament elections will take place in May - without the UK.
See how our 2018 predictions fared here: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=208175 What do you think will happen in 2019? |
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Jan 1 2019, 12:10 PM
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#2
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
   
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I didn't do any predictions in 2018, although if I had, one imagines that they would have been completely wrong, so nothing lost here. Keeping in mind my predictions end up being incredibly wrong, here are mine for 2019. You can find the salt beside the door, from which you are permitted to take as much as you can fit between your finger and thumb -
Brexit - In February 2019, parliament votes through Theresa May's Brexit deal, with a few minor alterations. The majority of the Conservative Party (with Kenneth Clarke a noted rebel), and a small but significant minority of the Labour Party vote in favour, as May's decision to play a game of chicken by continuously delaying presentation of the bill to the parliament, which spooks a lot of MPs into voting for it, scared of what happen in a No Deal scenario. The UK withdraws from Europe officially in September, and with the exception of some major tabloid scare stories over the summer months about 10 hour waits to get through passport checks in airports, appears to go through without many major hitches. UK Politics - Following the Brexit vote, there the usual tabloid scrum for a new "centrist" party, this time led by Lord Adonis and other "Peoples Vote" people, who begin the calls for a People's Vote for the UK to rejoin the EU the moment the UK leaves (having failed to get a 2nd referendum for the terms of the withdrawal agreement). Once again, this is hot air, and the year ends without any other major political party breaking through the Labour/Conservative duopoly. In by-election news, the Conservatives win the by-election in Peterborough caused by the resignation of Fiona Onasanya for perverting the course of justice. There are several other by-elections fought during the year, all of which are won by the same party that stood down. One story that begins to emerge from the by-elections is the slight re-surgence of The SDP, who start to win back their deposits during the year, having won tiny pockets of support from disillusioned Labourites, Tories & Ukippers. This causes the tabloids to talk about the re-rise of the SDP, which of course does not happen. UKIP finally goes full-fash, changing their rules so that ex-BNP members can join & appoints Tommy Robinson into a major role. They subsequently lose every single seat they are running for in the 2019 council election. There will be no General Election in 2019, and all major party leaders will be as they are come the end of the year. Labour/Tories will continually jostle for top spot in opinion polls during the year, ending with 39% Conservatives, 38% Labour, with no other party on more than 10% Northern Ireland - After the Conservatives pull the plug on their supply & demand relationship with the DUP after the latter refuses to vote with May on her Brexit deal, they set their sights back on NI, and the Assembly gets back up and running with a few conditions - the mandatory coalition system is abolished, and so is the petition of concern. In the subsequent election, a unionist majority emerges, with the DUP/UUP forming the government, with Sinn Fein as the official opposition. Serious calls for Irish reunification begins, as a result of complications on the border as a result of Brexit coming through, but as by the end of the year there has been no clear opinion poll suggesting a majority in favour of reunification, no poll happens this year. Europe - In the European elections, there is an unprecedented rise of populists and far-right politicians entering the European Parliament. This leads to a greater support of Brexit amongst the middle-classes, even to the point where an editorial in the Guardian insinuates that it is better for the UK not to remain in a club with these "nutcases". France - The Anglosphere finally wakes up to what a screw-top Macron is, as various scandals, and his inept handling of them, make them realise he wasn't the great saviour of the European ideal that he was excepted to be. Realistic calls for his resignation emerge over the summer, which result in Macron going all "Sun King", and refusing to leave his palace for days on end. USA - despite scandal after scandal, Donald Trump still remains president, with his approval rating remaining at about the same level. The preparations for the 2020 primaries begin - there are calls for a major "Never Trump" Republican to challenge him for his party's primary. By the end of the year the only two still in the running are Trump & Ben Sasse, but no media pundit believes that he can unseat Trump. In the Democrat primaries, 5 major candidates still find themselves seriously in the running for the party nomination, 4 of whom are female. The field had double the candidates during the summer, but had taken themselves out of the running having been tripped up by Trump's ability to get into their heads - Beto O'Rourke & Andrew Cuomo being the two highest profile casualties. Well, that's my thoughts. I'll probably being incredibly wrong about all of them, but hey, that's half the fun. |
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Jan 1 2019, 03:24 PM
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,022 User: 18,639
     
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-Tories collapse
- Mad May tries to bribe every last MP going over Brexit, but falls short - General Election, Corbyn becomes PM with Sturgeon Deputy - People's Vote and an extension of article 50 - Lib Dems continue to be irrelevant at a national level, but with inroads at the local - The perperrl have sperkerrrn Nazi propaganda is trotted out constantly in the first few months of the year USA: - Bernie and Biden fight it out for the prize. Bernie gets it. - The Mueller investigation continues and keeps targeting Trump - Trump becomes more unstable - Trump keeps the government shutdown going and going |
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Jan 1 2019, 10:45 PM
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#4
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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This was a very good call from Tyron last year:
QUOTE - Theresa May is still prime minister by the end of 2018, but a vote of no confidence is called among Tory MPs at some point by the hard Brexiteers out of dissatisfaction at the negotiations. May wins comfortably with at least 250 votes despite everyone still thinking she's useless, as the various factions other than the hard Brexiteers combine to back her in the hope of keeping her in place until after Brexit negotiations are completed.
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Jan 1 2019, 11:59 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Michaelmas! @ Jan 1 2019, 03:24 PM)  - Bernie and Biden fight it out for the prize. Bernie gets it. The US election isn't until November 2020 and we won't know the Democratic candidate this year. Can't see either getting it unless they have a young, maybe female, running for Vice President. My money's on a Sanders/Elizabeth Warren dream ticket losing to Trump. Think it's going to take something special to unseat Trump in 2020. This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: Jan 2 2019, 12:03 AM |
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Jan 2 2019, 12:05 AM
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#6
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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Something special?! He is DESPISED. Bernie IS THE. MOST. POPULAR. POLITICIAN. IN. THE. US. AND. WAS. ABOVE. TRUMP. BY. DOUBLE. DIGITS. And that was the first time! He wins. Easily.
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Jan 2 2019, 12:15 AM
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#7
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 2 2019, 12:05 AM) Something special?! He is DESPISED. Bernie IS THE. MOST. POPULAR. POLITICIAN. IN. THE. US. AND. WAS. ABOVE. TRUMP. BY. DOUBLE. DIGITS. And that was the first time! He wins. Easily. Yet Hillary beat Sanders to the nomination.  Not such a cert amongst his own party members then! Give it a rest. I'd say Biden has a better chance of unseating Trump.I'd bet my house and all my savings that Trump will be re-elected comfortably and he should be. The best US President in living memory. This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: Jan 2 2019, 12:18 AM |
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Jan 2 2019, 12:30 AM
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#8
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,022 User: 18,639
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Yes because she won the SOUTHERN states and the DNC rigged it. ALSO he started at 2%. Ended nearly winning
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Jan 2 2019, 12:31 AM
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#9
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,022 User: 18,639
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You must be trolling. He is atrocious and literally INSANE. That fat cat piece of shit should not be in the white house. He will not be reelected. Sorry.
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Jan 2 2019, 06:32 AM
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#10
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 2 2019, 12:31 AM) You must be trolling. He is atrocious and literally INSANE. That fat cat piece of shit should not be in the white house. He will not be reelected. Sorry. That's what we thought before his election the first time...
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Jan 2 2019, 06:27 PM
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#11
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 there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,130 User: 22,895 
   
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 1 2019, 12:10 PM) I didn't do any predictions in 2018, although if I had, one imagines that they would have been completely wrong, so nothing lost here. Keeping in mind my predictions end up being incredibly wrong, here are mine for 2019. You can find the salt beside the door, from which you are permitted to take as much as you can fit between your finger and thumb - Brexit - In February 2019, parliament votes through Theresa May's Brexit deal, with a few minor alterations. The majority of the Conservative Party (with Kenneth Clarke a noted rebel), and a small but significant minority of the Labour Party vote in favour, as May's decision to play a game of chicken by continuously delaying presentation of the bill to the parliament, which spooks a lot of MPs into voting for it, scared of what happen in a No Deal scenario. The UK withdraws from Europe officially in September, and with the exception of some major tabloid scare stories over the summer months about 10 hour waits to get through passport checks in airports, appears to go through without many major hitches. UK Politics - Following the Brexit vote, there the usual tabloid scrum for a new "centrist" party, this time led by Lord Adonis and other "Peoples Vote" people, who begin the calls for a People's Vote for the UK to rejoin the EU the moment the UK leaves (having failed to get a 2nd referendum for the terms of the withdrawal agreement). Once again, this is hot air, and the year ends without any other major political party breaking through the Labour/Conservative duopoly. In by-election news, the Conservatives win the by-election in Peterborough caused by the resignation of Fiona Onasanya for perverting the course of justice. There are several other by-elections fought during the year, all of which are won by the same party that stood down. One story that begins to emerge from the by-elections is the slight re-surgence of The SDP, who start to win back their deposits during the year, having won tiny pockets of support from disillusioned Labourites, Tories & Ukippers. This causes the tabloids to talk about the re-rise of the SDP, which of course does not happen. UKIP finally goes full-fash, changing their rules so that ex-BNP members can join & appoints Tommy Robinson into a major role. They subsequently lose every single seat they are running for in the 2019 council election. There will be no General Election in 2019, and all major party leaders will be as they are come the end of the year. Labour/Tories will continually jostle for top spot in opinion polls during the year, ending with 39% Conservatives, 38% Labour, with no other party on more than 10% Northern Ireland - After the Conservatives pull the plug on their supply & demand relationship with the DUP after the latter refuses to vote with May on her Brexit deal, they set their sights back on NI, and the Assembly gets back up and running with a few conditions - the mandatory coalition system is abolished, and so is the petition of concern. In the subsequent election, a unionist majority emerges, with the DUP/UUP forming the government, with Sinn Fein as the official opposition. Serious calls for Irish reunification begins, as a result of complications on the border as a result of Brexit coming through, but as by the end of the year there has been no clear opinion poll suggesting a majority in favour of reunification, no poll happens this year. Europe - In the European elections, there is an unprecedented rise of populists and far-right politicians entering the European Parliament. This leads to a greater support of Brexit amongst the middle-classes, even to the point where an editorial in the Guardian insinuates that it is better for the UK not to remain in a club with these "nutcases". France - The Anglosphere finally wakes up to what a screw-top Macron is, as various scandals, and his inept handling of them, make them realise he wasn't the great saviour of the European ideal that he was excepted to be. Realistic calls for his resignation emerge over the summer, which result in Macron going all "Sun King", and refusing to leave his palace for days on end. USA - despite scandal after scandal, Donald Trump still remains president, with his approval rating remaining at about the same level. The preparations for the 2020 primaries begin - there are calls for a major "Never Trump" Republican to challenge him for his party's primary. By the end of the year the only two still in the running are Trump & Ben Sasse, but no media pundit believes that he can unseat Trump. In the Democrat primaries, 5 major candidates still find themselves seriously in the running for the party nomination, 4 of whom are female. The field had double the candidates during the summer, but had taken themselves out of the running having been tripped up by Trump's ability to get into their heads - Beto O'Rourke & Andrew Cuomo being the two highest profile casualties. Well, that's my thoughts. I'll probably being incredibly wrong about all of them, but hey, that's half the fun. Good analysis in general but I'd question how stable your NI predictions are. A UUP-DUP government in power at a time when we've been discussing reumification and the UK, England, the British people and British politicians seem to all intents and purposes not give a fig about understanding the state of play currently or history of NI and Ireland, and at the same time seem content to put up a literal wall between the north and the south... well, I don't see those of a more Republican bent within the island being happy with that at the best of times, and it happening under an English PM and an UUP-DUP government would be insult to injury. I could definitely foresee at least tension and at worst a return to civil violence if that was to pass. It sounds very Cromwellian. |
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Jan 2 2019, 06:31 PM
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#12
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,651 User: 3,272
    
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QUOTE(MÿrtleSnow @ Jan 2 2019, 06:27 PM) Good analysis in general but I'd question how stable your NI predictions are. A UUP-DUP government in power at a time when we've been discussing reumification and the UK, England, the British people and British politicians seem to all intents and purposes not give a fig about understanding the state of play currently or history of NI and Ireland, and at the same time seem content to put up a literal wall between the north and the south... well, I don't see those of a more Republican bent within the island being happy with that at the best of times, and it happening under an English PM and an UUP-DUP government would be insult to injury. I could definitely foresee at least tension and at worst a return to civil violence if that was to pass. It sounds very Cromwellian. You're assuming that the UK government listens to reason. I think we have plenty of evidence that this government does no such thing. |
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Jan 2 2019, 07:26 PM
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#13
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,022 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 2 2019, 06:32 AM) That's what we thought before his election the first time... Not me. Bernie was ahead by double digits. Hillary was 2-3 or sometimes even behind and won only the southern states which always vote Republican |
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Jan 2 2019, 07:39 PM
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#14
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(MÿrtleSnow @ Jan 2 2019, 07:27 PM) Good analysis in general but I'd question how stable your NI predictions are. A UUP-DUP government in power at a time when we've been discussing reumification and the UK, England, the British people and British politicians seem to all intents and purposes not give a fig about understanding the state of play currently or history of NI and Ireland, and at the same time seem content to put up a literal wall between the north and the south... well, I don't see those of a more Republican bent within the island being happy with that at the best of times, and it happening under an English PM and an UUP-DUP government would be insult to injury. I could definitely foresee at least tension and at worst a return to civil violence if that was to pass. It sounds very Cromwellian. I suspect that Sinn Fein would acquiesce to a DUP-UUP Executive in the event of a unionist majority in the hope that it galvanises the republican/nationalist base and paves the way for a United, although I admit that this is the one prediction that is perhaps the least likely to come to effect. |
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Jan 13 2019, 10:45 AM
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#15
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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I'm in agreement with a lot of what BB has said, but first a look back at my predictions for 2018:
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
This did happen, GroKo II (Große Koalition) was voted through reluctantly by the SDP but this was mainly achieved through older voters. As a result a fair few of the now disillusioned younger SDP supporters have since peeled off to the more left-wing Greens instead and given them a huge boost and resulted in a continued loss to the support of the SDP. What I didn't envisage was Merkel agreeing to step down as leader of the CDU (though she remains Chancellor for the time being). QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
No, sadly. His campaign manager was convicted and received a 9 month suspended sentence but bizarrely he was acquitted. QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
I've grouped these together because they both deal with the economy. Oil prices have actually remained steady over 2018, although they were rising until October - and have since collapsed. Inflation did not fall back below 2%, indeed it was 2.3% in November so not a bad prediction and interest rates were increased in the summer by 0.25% to 0.75% so that was another incorrect prediction! In terms of wage inflation, that actually exceeded inflation later in the year and so there was less of an issue, although spending was down at retail and productivity did indeed remain flat. GDP figures for 2018 aren't out yet, but to the 3rd quarter they were 1.5% year-on-year so my prediction potentially not bad in the end! QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
Well, yes. Didn't envisage his attempted assassination of a former spy on UK soil though. He is becoming more and more rogue so expect more of the same next year. QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
There were quite a few defeats for the government - including infamously being found in contempt of Parliament (which passed 307–311, by just 4 votes). The EU Withdrawal Bill was passed, but the transition period has yet to be agree (see predictions for 2019). No general election was called, although Jeremy Corbyn has been trying for the past few months despite no hope of it happening. Well it appears I was too optimistic thinking that the new trade deal would be sketched out by now - we still have no detail AT ALL - so that was wrong, though I was right about the deal (about the divorce) pleasing nobody and the issue of the Northern Ireland Backstop appears to be the defining issue at the moment. At the end of the year a recent poll from Survation shows support for Remain and Leave still more-or-less split at 50/50 and Labour and Conservative roughly neck-and-neck in the polls with 40%. JC, TM and VC all remain leaders of their respective parties and the Lib Dems did indeed do rather well at the local elections in May. Er, the less said about UKIP the better... Finally whilst Labour did move further towards a remain position, their actual Brexit strategy remains wilfully nebulous in order to continue to carry along the awkward coalition of metropolitan cities and former industrial towns in the north. How long that can continue is an open question, but it seems increasingly fragile IMO. QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM)
Well we got Trump survive another year, although it ended with extraordinary attacks of the Fed and a partial government shut-down over Congress' refusal to approve money to build his beloved wall. How will 2019 turn out? The Democrats did relatively well and took back a majority in the House of Representatives - but did not take the Senate. |
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Jan 13 2019, 11:47 AM
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#16
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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2019 then... it's going to get interesting...
Let's start with the easy stuff(!)
Big calls:
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Feb 19 2019, 03:55 AM
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#17
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 17 September 2016
Posts: 243 User: 23,606
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Little bit curious to see BJ prediction on Scotland, Ireland (North and/or Republic) and Gibraltar this year despite not knowing much the general political climate in Europe.
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