It is election year in America, with the vote due to be held on Tuesday 3 November.
Primaries and Caucuses commence very soon, starting with Iowa in early February - please continue the discussion and debate here.
Thanks for starting the new topic Danny, let's keep this one full of high-quality discussion, and primarily related, for the next few months to the primaries going on across the States for the first half of the year to choose the candidates for the presidential race.
I figure it might be helpful (and I enjoy doing this) to round up where exactly we are so we are informed:
The Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses
here's how Bernie can still win.
The expectation is that this is going to dominate 99% of relevant talking points about the primary process, who will be the challenger to the incumbent president? There are still more than 2 people who could still realistically win the nomination going into the election year. Those four, Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren, are all polling between 13-22%, which means the early primaries are likely to be very scattered, especially given there are 11 other hangers-on who haven't given up yet. It's almost like the Democrats have become Republicans... ahem.
Historically, the results of the early states tends to dictate the rest of the races, and candidates that weren't high in the polls CAN very easily maneuver themselves into a dominant position if they get good results in the first 4 states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
The candidates
In rough order of likelihood to win:
Joe Biden, former vice-president, black feminist
Bernie Sanders, Vermont Senator, hearty folk musician
Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, cites Sam Smith as inspiration
Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senator, has got a tribe for that
~
Michael Bloomberg, billionaire and former mayor of NYC, fiscally conservative on ad spendingAndrew Yang, entrepreneur, first ever forward-wing candidateCory Booker, New Jersey Senator, documentarian for Netflix
Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator, Leslie Knope cosplayer
Tom Steyer, billionaire, Honda Accord fanJulián Castro, former Secretary of Housing, prolific tweet merchantMichael Bennet, Colorado Senator, Ted Cruz' worst nightmare
Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii Congresswoman, "present"
Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachussetts, is literally ObamaMarianne Williamson, author, warrior against dark psychic forcesJohn Delaney, Maryland Congressman, lost $10 million to this campaign
Calendar for the first month
February 3rd: Iowa Caucus
February 11th: New Hampshire Primary
February 22nd: Nevada Caucus
Febraury 29th: South Carolina Primary
March 3rd: Super Tuesday - 14 states including California and Texas
Caucuses vs primaries
These might be unfamiliar terms. Both are forms of election to choose the Democratic candidate recommended for each state. If I've got any of this wrong please correct me.
Primaries are simple elections with ballot boxes. Most primaries are closed or semi-closed - New Hampshire is the latter, meaning that only registered Democratic Party members in the case of the former, or registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters (i.e. not Republican/Libertarian/Green/other party members) in the case of the latter can vote. A few states do run open primaries, where anyone can vote no matter which party they are a member of.
Caucuses are far more archaic and complicated. The type Iowa does is a 'walking subcaucus'. Party members gather in a meeting in their local precinct on February 3rd. They have a meeting/debate to choose their candidate, and indicate their vote by standing in a certain area of the room. The proportion is noted and reported. Each precinct then sends a small number of their members (representing the viewpoint split) to a county meeting held a month later. The process repeats and each county sends a proportion of their members to the state's districts the month after that. Finally, the state convention meets and decides what delegates to send to the national convention.
Whether the voting is done via primary or caucus, each state is assigned delegates relative to its population, and candidates pick up their predicted delegates and add them to their vote count. Most of these are pledged delegates, who look at the result of the state and split themselves according to the result, to vote for that candidate at the national convention. There are also unpledged delegates, aka superdelegates, who typically do not pledge themselves to any candidate prior to the convention.
Other primaries (Republican, Libertarian, Green etc)
Most attention is on the Democratic primary. However other primaries are still going on.
Some states are not holding a Republican primary/caucus this year, with the expectation that Trump will be renominated as the incumbent. However, most still are, and Trump can expect to face some token opposition from Bill Weld and Joe Walsh. He's likely to have his little hands full though - but this topic is not about the upcoming trial or his general non-primarying activities. We'll start a topic for that soon.
The Libertarian and Green primaries are also occurring, as well as even more minor parties. Delights like Vermin Supreme for the Libertarians abound.
Big oof at you declaring 2 other candidates less likely to win than Deval Patrick. Of course that far down the list the chance is 0 for everyone but... http://www.blackenterprise.com/deval-patrick-canceled-morehouse-event-because-only-two-people-showed-up/.
I think Biden is looking like not doing all that well in Iowa and NH which I hope will be enough to kill his candidacy and have Buttigieg replace him as the centrist candidate of choice, he's at least slightly better.
Ooh, yay, this thread has already claimed its first victim! And it's not Deval Patrick.
Rumours still abound in the US that Hillary will enter the primaries race late. Can't see it myself. Anybody else?
A good mate of mine is in South Carolina and I was getting the lowdown from her on the candidate’s. So Sanders is the millenials candidate basically but hes a turn off for a huge chunk of people. Basically he’s Corbyn. A totally unlike able fud running on a highly electable platform. Warren doesn’t have as good a platform but is probably the right candidate for where America is right now in terms of laying the groundwork for an AOC (or similar) presidency.
Caveat of course it’s just my mates view. But she is a democrat in a blue leaning city in a still quite red leaning state. Edge of the Bible Belt, still flies the confederate flag, very pro-gun, first of the confederate states to leave the union etc etc etc. basically on paper it’s a trump safe zone but it’s the kind of state the democrats should be starting to target (sandwiched between increasingly purple GA and NC with similarly changing demographics)
Bernie is most definitely not anywhere near as unpopular as Corbyn. I'm pretty sure he's actually one of very few US politicians who sometimes gets net positive results in approval polls.
edit: 'sometimes' is actually an understatement, he's http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/sanders_favorableunfavorable-5263.html (at least recently). Of course he isn't for everyone but who is? Certainly not Trump. (And with respect, although it'd be great if South Carolina flipped to the Dems, that should surely be a much lower priority for them than winning back the Michigans, Wisconsins and Pennsylvanias that had voted Democrat in every election for decades before flipping because of Hillary)
I'd love to see AOC become president in the future, a shame that she's too young at the moment or she could honestly have probably won this year...
Ummm your friend is high. Bernie is the MOST POPULAR politician in the entire United States. He is extremely well-liked and thr ONLY Democrat who wins independents.
Given that the closest you are to the United States is *checks notes* Northumberland, I'll stick with my actual American friend living in South Carolina speaking to other real Americans.
I feel the electoral ground is somewhat more favourable to Sanders than Corbyn, his engagement in the Rust Belt appears to be high, where he needs to win, and his opponent is more popularly seen as extreme than Corbyn's was. On the one hand, if you want to use the 'left fall in love' mantra to its fullest, you need their candidate (which is why Michael appears so blinkered), on the other, if he's targeting people who stayed at home rather than vote for Hillary, that's not the most reliable base.
South Carolina was incredibly hostile to Sanders last time and I don't expect that particular state to be any different this time to be honest. I think he as the candidate would have little hope of switching red states but he might cause some purple ones to flip. Biden would probably make ground where he doesn't need to which is why I feel he'd lose the most. Warren could do both. Her being chosen might be the potential unity candidate.
See I'd characterise those who vote for Sanders but not other Democratic candidates as less 'leftists', because those are really a rare breed in America, but 'anti-establishment' folks who don't like typical politicians. Only possibly Warren would get them to move out of the rest and for some of them it might be just as likely for them to go out and vote Republican.
Now those would be very useful facts to have at my disposal. I'd like to see the sources on that.
Every single poll confirms it:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/bernie-sanders-most-popular-politician-poll-trump-favorability-a7913306.html%3famp
Not only that, but polls show he has the HIGHEST favourability and strength among independent voters.
Things change Michael. You ignored my post above and that's telling.
What post?
And the polls since then HAVE ALL CONFIRMED IT. He is more popular. Whether he is more popular with REGISTERED Democrats who vote in the prims and caucuses is another matter entirely.
South Carolina is hardly on the Democratic win list, especially following a defeat. Hillary was deeply unpopular in contrast to Sanders' almost univwrsal appeal.
Marianne Williamson has reportedly laid off all her https://www.businessinsider.com/marianne-williamson-just-fired-everyone-on-her-2020-campaign-report-2020-1?r=US&IR=T, so will likely drop out of the race fairly soon (you can't run a campaign on good vibes alone). It's probably been worth it for her though, she's probably sold a shed-load of books off the back of it.
From CNN:
A new poll out today has a 3 way tie in Iowa between Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg all on 23%, Warren a little behind on 16%, but that would be enough to get her delegates.
Seems like this is going to end up a contested convention
Even tho Biden has been consistently ahead in national polls, it's never been a big enough lead to control the race, or to force others who are well funded and have a solid support base to drop out
Edit : New Hampshire poll out as well showing Sanders just ahead of Biden, with Buttigieg and Warren both around the delegate threshold
I predict it will all be very deja vu with 2016 in the early states, Biden will win Iowa by a whisker like Hillary did in 2016 and Bernie will bag New Hampshire.
New Iowa poll makes for interesting reading:
What does a Klobuchar voter look like I don't get it.
Also really trying hard not to follow this but...urgh.
Honestly American politics is bad because it manages to be both spectacularly depressing while still being pretty boring compared to most countries.
Other polls are also looking good for Sanders - the latest Ipsos poll actually puts him ahead nationally, though it's worth noting they also included Don't Knows in their data so the margins look more like this:
Donald Trump, after attacking Biden and getting impeached over illegally investigating him, has realised something: Bernie is gonna win as momentum is on his side. He has been attacking him non-stop instead! 
His attacks are pathetically bad. Looks like you got impeached attacking the wrong person, ey, Donnie!
I think you will faint if Sanders becomes president mate won't you?!
His attacks are pathetically bad. Looks like you got impeached attacking the wrong person, ey, Donnie!
If it is Sanders Trump and Pence will surely go on a lot about his heart attack. Expect a dirty contest from Trump. He wants a second term. A loss wouldn't auger well for Ivanka becoming the first female president, maybe in 2032 if Trump wins and Pence wants a go. She may even stand next time.
Didn't Trump also have a heart attack very recently?
Actually, that is a point, part of Trump's winning strategy was looking like a winner, looking like the active participant against Clinton's reactivity. That's gone against Sanders because he's a firebrand himself. And a key part of what also sets him apart from Corbyn, as much as anti-Sanders people will be keen to make that comparison.
Heart attacks are here or there, because it's what it'll look like that matters and Bernie would most likely be looking very energetic on the debate stage. Trump in comparison has looked lethargic in recent public appearances. Their lifestyles couldn't be further apart. He's not well.
and?
Dull moderates have a pretty bad track record of getting elected in America too. Electability, in such a form as to exclude the left from political power, is an argument with no substance.
If Trump is viewed negatively, and if Sanders is the candidate and is viewed as the answer to Trump, he will win. By that point it becomes a binary. If he is the candidate, then there will undoubtedly be inspiration and positivity behind his campaign that will put him in with a great chance. Which is something I wouldn't say about most of the other Democratic campaigns.
Bernie would have won. Guess what? Moderates don't inspire people to vote. The left does. It offers something different. The last election cycle should have told you that people want change, not establishment candidates. That's why Hillary lost to the anti-establishment, but really a secret elite establishment candidate, last time.
The Rust Belt/Midwest is going to be one of the biggest battlegrounds if not the key one to win in this election for sure. You need a candidate that can win there. My gut feeling is that they'll easily go towards Trump if they see a Democratic Party that's not listening to their concerns and only puts up a 'Trump bad' candidate that represents the establishment. We'll obviously know more once we've had a few primary results but Sanders is the apparent favourite in that part of the country as things stand if his high engagement and enthusiasm ratings in Iowa currently can be replicated across the region - he got great results there last time too.
Those states could still easily go towards Trump anyway and that's why he's got a good chance of reelection. But you need someone that can combat him there - winning back the odd state in the Deep South in return won't cut it.
And let's remember how Bernie destroyed Hillary in those states, even wih the fske polls the establishment kept pumping out to try and support her.
He has been impeached. He looks extremely unhealthy and sounds it too. The economy is only doing well FOR THE RICH PLUTOCRATS and all the infustry he promised didn't come back, obviously. Agriculture is suffering from his trade war with China. Sooo yeaaaaah. Who is this economy working for? Well, not tbe average person, and THAT'S what matters. Do you think this won't be Bernie's reply every single time the orange bloat brings it up?? That's why Trump is already copying Bojo and saying he won't go to debates, etc, as he KNOWS he will be destroyed. He is fleeing from accountability.
And you are still pushing rhe line that it was the policies, which are EXTREMELY POPULAR, and not the character assassination of Corbyn and the one party state media and the Tory lies and corruption, that was the problem. Lol.the Sun Daily Fail BBTory etc aren't polluting American politics with their right wing vile trash.
From The Daily Beast.
Should Sanders actually pull off the feat of capturing the nomination, Donald Trump would have been given a gift that almost assures his re-election. Trump already refers to the Democrats as “the far-left Democrats” and has branded all of the potential candidates as socialists. “We will not live in a socialist America,” he said to cheers in one of his rallies, suggesting that such an outcome would occur should any Democrat win the White House. With Sanders as the presidential candidate, he could say without distortion that the Vermont senator’s end goal is a socialist United States.
Two days before Christmas, Sanders appeared at a major rally, the first since his heart attack, in Venice, California. At the rally he was joined by his socialist comrade in arms, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Reporting on the event for Newsweek, reporter Benjamin Fearnow wrote that she said the United States shouldn’t be called an advanced society even though it is the richest country in modern history, but “for who?…We’re here to say that what we’re living in now is not an advanced society. A society that allows people—it is fascism.”
Hopefully, sometime soon, rank-and-file Democrat activists and voters will come to their senses and understand that should Sanders win the nomination of his party, the election results will be a resounding victory for Trump. Our country is not the America of 1972, when Richard M. Nixon campaigned against the liberal-leftist Democratic candidate George McGovern, calling him the candidate of “amnesty, abortion and acid.” In that election, only one state, Massachusetts, gave the electoral college vote to McGovern.
Nevertheless, a Sanders nomination would put many states in play that Democrats had easily won for a quarter-century. Sanders is where he is today in part because no one has really attacked him. But just wait until Republicans spend a billion dollars painting him as an extremist. He’d win Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, California, Washington, and Hawaii, and also probably New York and Illinois. But a huge number of usually-blue states would be up for grabs. He would also find that Democratic candidates would run away from him. Many candidates running for governor, the Senate, and the House in purple states and districts would refuse to campaign with him, or at best make a half-hearted quick appearance.
In 1972, the candidate hated most by the left and the liberals, Richard Nixon, became President of the United States. Is that what today’s Trump opponents really want to repeat?
Same attack line they used on him in 2016. Pathetic that the establishment is STILL USING THE SAME LINE NOW WHEN THEIR ARGUMENT IS A PROVEN FAILURE!! They nominated a moderate and SHE LOST!! Bernie won, and by massive margins, the states she lost!! Please stop sharing things from the estabmishment daily beast mkay? Thanks.
I actually saw a yt video SAVAGING that establishment article earlier. Ridiculous. Btw, the only person who hasn't attacked him until now has been trump. Otherwise, he has been attacked a lot AND was attacked in 2016. And yet he's still top. Huh. Veeery popular with Repukes and independents too. Do the maths.
Anything else, Trump supporter?? No?? Okay.
Also, America has been CONSISTENTLY trending left, even as the UK stagnates and bows down to its disco citizens overlords, like it always has done. Sanders would have destroyed Trump last time. He will do it this time.
Yes I am a huge Trump supporter but want to post articles for both sides of the argument, both for and against his re-election. Then we get a wider viewpoint and wider opinions. I'm sure the Mods would agree that this is better.
Why? What does Trump do for YOU? He's a fat cat millionaire who won't reveal his taxes. NYS is bringing forward a legal case over his tax "irregularities". That's bad. The economy works only for the rich in both the UK and the USA and the neoliberal elite Trump just continues that. He has failed in everything, EVERYTHING!!!, he said he would do. He promised to revive dead industries in the usa in a globalised world lol. Did he f***. So I repeat: why?
I agree that Trump's done nothing for me as I'm not an American. He brought a breath of fresh air to the Presidency. Don't suppose you've ever read his Twitter. He Tweets most days and it's said to be always him and he's hilarious some days.
Now why are you seemingly obsessed with Bernie? What has he done for you. He stood in 2016 and didn't even get the nomination.
Exactly.
1. Tweets should NOT BE HILARIOUS FROM A PRESIDENT. If he wants to be a comedian, well, go ahead. But politics isn't a game. And you on the right will NEVER EVER get any respect from the left whilst you treat it as such.
2. He has not been. He has been like Hitler in his early years - a confusing mess on the international stage that has countries scrambling as he sidesteps international norms. This is appalling.
3. Bernie would mean a massive blow to the neoliberal world order and would shift the narrative globally. He will improve the lives of Americans and of people abroad as well. He is the one to support if you truly believe in humanism.
But when that is exactly what he has been doing?
Learning from history is very useful.
Random thoughts, which might veer into the morbid, but hear me out:
As things stand, Sanders seems the most likely to win the nomination. However, my feeling is that if he does win the nomination, and subsequently wins the presidency (which at the moment, I still think it's Trump's to lose), I do not think that he will survive his entire 4-year term (I also think the same about Joe Biden). Therefore, the most important task that he (and Biden) will have to undertake will be to pick a strong vice-President pick. No doubt there'll be other major commentators making the same comment, so any VP pick will be treated as a de facto future president as well. I've seen a few commentators suggest that Biden knows this and is purposely using his still pretty intact reputation to get the Democrats over the line in November, at which point he'll take his leave and hand over to a younger Democratic candidate, but of course this would be mere speculation at this point.
In Democratic candidate news, the most recent drama is Hillary Clinton wading an unnecessary foot into the debate and saying (paraphrasing) that 'no one likes Bernie Sanders'. To which #ILikeBernie was immediately made trending.
(and Sanders himself is as ever a class act, his response was 'My wife likes me' <3)
Social media is as ever coming out stronger for Sanders than I've ever seen it, even with the Warren thing last week - if you weren't caught up, Warren made an accusation that Sanders had said to her that a woman could never be president, something that has no basis in merit. Basically, the conversation is now almost entirely around Bernie.
Maybe the hype of social media won't reflect reality, but it means I'm really looking forward to seeing how the Iowa caucus shapes up.
The feeling across the pond is that Biden's the only one who could possibly beat Trump.
Trump will go on and on about Pocahontas, or Sleepy Joe (with an added drop of witch hunt starter), and I dread to think what homophobic slur he'd come up with should Buttigieg start to rebound. He will have a line of attack no matter what.
The conversation is that people are starting to get really excited about Sanders' chances. All the polling videos are exploring Biden vs Sanders, and they're basically tied right now. I would consider it very likely that Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire at this point, they're contests that I would guess are easy to translate online hype into real tangible votes, and then Sanders is in such a commanding position.
What did I tell you!? #MOMENTUM!!
He started out much higher than he did vs Hills, and she was better than Biden. Trump is panicking about Bernie winning too Bernie has co-opted one of Corbyn's policies: broadband as a public utility!
Warren's smears backfired and sealed the deal for Bernie! If he wins SC or comes within striking distance, it's over for Sleepy Joe.
New national poll @CNN just out:
Sanders 27%
Biden 24%
Warren 14%
Buttigieg 11%
Bloomberg 5%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 4%
Steyer 2%
Everyone else <1%
New national Monmouth poll just out:
Biden 30%
Sanders 23%
Warren 14%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Yang 3%
Apparently there's a Twitter hashtag trending in the US "Let's find Bernie some hot young girls" 
Speculation that someone wants to give him a heart attack! 
Let's remember Trump did his annual physical TWICE apparently , and for the "second" one he was rushed in! No one does a physical in two separate bits.
You'll also notice that the Trump trolls are now attacking Bernie. He is the front-runner now!
Further reading for the trump trolls:
https://www.msnbc.com/velshi-ruhle/watch/what-is-democratic-socialism-1266192963803?fbclid=IwAR0QGH5BRsCDo_Iqj0YoUp1Iaqux-U03O7KC5vYgHnWH1FC0K_pQ6EFLtPU
The farmers and people he promised to get jobs for are NOT benefitting from the economy for the rich. They can easily flip to Bernie.
New York Times/Sienna College presidential matchups for Iowa, Trump winning them all.
Trump 46 - Biden 44
Trump 48 - Sanders 42
Trump 47 - Warren 42
Trump 45 - Buttigieg 44
Trump 47 - Bloomberg 39
Iowa leans Repuke this election. We all know that. Bernie - 53 Trump - 42 - is all you need to know about how it's going to go though x Bye bye to the most corrupt evil president ever. As Obama said himself, Trump is a fascist.
Sanders is polling better than Trump in Texas!! If he wins Texas, the EC will be abolished within the year.
The campaign hasn't begun yet Michael. A lot can happen when it does.
If Sanders is the nominee all US news sites agree that he has to pick a good running mate, assuming he/she will be President. Not many think he'll last the 4 years. Trump should hammer that home.
You mean the dirtiest campaign in history from Trump, plus Russian bot interference, plus voter suppression? Not enough when rhe Dems have a 10 point lead I'm afraid!
Iowa poll is looking pretty damn good for Bernie only a week away, 30% up against 21% Biden. And Klobuchar 3rd in 13% for some godforsaken reason:
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-sanders-solidifies-frontrunner-status-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/25/only-one-i-didnt-want-her-pick-secret-recording-trump-admits-fear-clinton-picking?fbclid=IwAR38j3xatUqgcsLNrt_gsookApTUb4Ssh6C_3NP1ITO5O3NftB9tIfBIQbU
Trump is scared of Bernie. The most recent reports say he is stressing and obsessed with Bernie winning the nomination.
From LA Times.
Last week's anti-Sanders stuff from the media and Democratic establishment appears to have helped him. This is Trump 2016 all over again but on the other side. I wonder if Hillary Clinton realises that every time she speaks out against someone they receive a boost in the polls? Warren has moved back a bit, her attempts to smear Sanders as sexist appear to have backfired. On current polling Biden has a lead over Sanders nationally, but the momentum is with Sanders and that is unlikely to change with the results of the first two states.
IMO Biden remains their best option to beat Trump.
I have a US lady on my Facebook who also lost her daughter around the same time as Rachel died. We chat a lot but she hates Trump. I asked her why. She said "well how long have you got?" LOL. She says he has "no morals, pervs on his own daughter, is dishonest, corrupt, very lazy, a liar, self-centred and even his wife hates him according to rumours". She does think he'll get a second term though as there are so many idiots in America.
I feel really uneasy with certain post here banging on about people dying of a heart attack.
He came out the same day though. Now surely they keep you in at least a night if you've had a heart attack, even one that wasn't very severe. That's why I don't think he had one. Not just what they've said. My cousin had a mild one and was in a week.
Again I don't care if you think it matters stop talking about the potential of someone having a heart attack it's unsavoury at best.
Iowa tonight boys. This is when it really starts. Sanders is looking pretty good, most of the last minute predictions I've seen have him winning over Biden or Warren.
why am I excited? I just am excited. Prove yourself, Bernie.
Yes much excitement over Iowa which I actually expect Bernie to win. Super Tuesday will be far more important though.
Gosh it sounds very complicated.
From Wiki
Absentee voting (i.e. by mail) or proxy voting is not allowed in the closed 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses, where only registered Democratic Iowans (who meet the requirement of being minimum 18 years old by November 3, 2020) can vote by their physical presence at their designated precinct caucus site. Iowans who have not registered as Democrats before the caucus day, can still register as such on caucus night itself at their designated precinct, and hereby gain full voting right at the event.[1]
1,678 Iowa precinct caucuses plus 99 satellite caucuses around the world (organized as alternative voting sites for registered Democratic Iowans who are prevented from voting locally at their precinct caucus) will all be held with doors being closed 7 p.m. CST on February 3, 2020, in order to elect precinct delegates for the subsequent county conventions and allocate the state's 41 pledged national delegates based upon the proportional accumulative result of all the precincts.[1]
In all precinct caucuses, the presidential candidates must meet a viability threshold within the individual precinct in order to qualify as a viable candidate:[2]
min. of 15% for the majority of precincts with more than three delegates.
min. of 16.67% for small precincts only electing three delegates.
min. of 25% for smaller precincts only electing two delegates.
min. of 50% for the smallest precincts only electing one delegate.
Supporters of viable candidates after the first initial voting will have their vote locked to their chosen presidential candidate. Supporters of non-viable candidates having received a result below the viability threshold in the first preliminary vote, however, are allowed to vote a final second time, where they can either choose to transfer their vote to one of the already established viable candidates or alternatively merge their non-viable group with another non-viable group in order to create a big enough group to qualify as a viable candidate.[2]
It is delightfully complicated, and actually sounds quite fun to take part in, interacting with other voters and making an evening of it. Though it has issues with pressure and the demand on time, so less states are doing it this cycle.
The interesting thing that could change the result is where the voters for your Klobuchars, Yangs, Steyers and possibly even Buttigieg or Warren in some precincts will go after the first round should they not meet that 15% threshold. There's guesses out that say like Klobuchar is more centrist so hers might go to Biden, Yang's more anti-establishment so his might go to Sanders, but then the thing about caucuses that makes them interesting is that enthusiastic supporters are the ones making the most effective arguments to switch, which definitely helps Sanders.
And Iowa is deceptively important, it tends to set the tone for later contests, so very important that your favoured candidate does well tonight. We'll probably be down to three or four candidates by Super Tuesday with most votes going to one of the top 2, which will really focus a lot of support.
First caucus declared for Bernie. It was a satellite caucus, Ottumwa, and only had 15 people, 14 of whom supported Bernie. 1 supported Warren.
One of the most interesting statistics I read in the last few days is that out of Andrew Yang's followers, 42% of them would not support another https://www.newsweek.com/andrew-yang-bernie-sanders-supporters-wont-support-another-nominee-democratic-unity-msnbc-poll-1485241 (for context, it's 16% for Sanders and 0% for Warren). It seems that Yang is really popular with the sorts of people who wouldn't normally lean Democratic, which means that in the very low circumstances that he becomes the candidate, then there's a lot less of his supporters that could end up pivoting to Trump.
'Yang Gang'ers are very weird. Seems like he's getting a lot of apolitical types on board. Honestly if Sanders weren't so far ahead I'd be calling him my second choice, as you say, he'd be good for independents, pretty good for progressives, I think he's pretty good at getting into Trump's area, I honestly do hope he sticks around in politics after this.
Obviously pro-Bernie stuff is getting signal boosted a lot more online than the opposite and this is just one precinct but...
Uncharacteristic delays in the Iowa results, putting down to 'quality control'. Biden's team in particular have asked for some time to react to them. Only 1% of districts are even reporting, there's a few statistically meaningless popular vote statistics out (in which it's currently Sanders 1811, Warren 1636, Buttigieg 1553, Klobuchar 773 and Biden in 5th (!) at 722) but no delegate counts at all.
Signs elswehere do seem to sort of fit with that, suggesting that Sanders had a really good night and Biden a really poor one, Klobuchar and Buttigieg overperforming, perhaps Warren about as expected, but the delay in the official result means that most of the campaigns may well not have a chance to react before New Hampshire next week.
conspiracy theories about the DNC fixing these delays to avoid giving Bernie a primetime victory speech are currently running a little rampant so I'll save you the post, Michael.
From CNN
Iowa polling is fascinating.
Over 65s has Biden leading and Sanders on single digits
18-49 has Sanders leading and Biden on single digits
Age is surely the biggest dividing factor in the Democratic party.
Whether Sanders wins this time or not it suggests the move to the left is inevitable over the long term.
Rather concerning, the DNC had been using a new app that was supposed to count the results, known as Shadow. Shadow had apparently received funding from Pete Buttigieg's campaign (and a bit from Biden's but this is mostly Buttigieg), and Buttigieg has made tweets, at a time when no official results are known, indicating that he's done very well. The other candidates have not.
Warren's chief strategist:
https://twitter.com/rospars/status/1224588463334359040
Here’s what we know about what happened in Iowa:
It’s a very close race among the top three candidates (Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg) and Biden came a distant fourth
The process broke down; systematically and individually in many precincts, both people and technology failed
Any campaign saying they won or putting out incomplete numbers is contributing to the chaos and misinformation
For now, our incredible organizers who delivered a strong result in Iowa and who showed how to build a community of positive, passionate advocates for big structural change will deploy to the states that vote in the coming weeks — #LFG
The thing is, the only person who wins when a mess like this happens is the incumbent. Trump will probably be very happy about the complete shambles that occurred in Iowa last night. He's already gloat-tweeting about it.
I'll never be able to wrap my head around what a ridiculous process the Iowa caucus is.
Trump's said "They want one of theirs to run the country. They can't even get the caucus results. Couldn't run a bath" 
well he's certainly not one to talk having not done a single thing he promised so much during the last campaign. the one action was putting immigrant children in cages. what a noble guy 💖
Perhaps the subtitle should be amended to the date of the Iowa conference to 33rd Feb. as that’s when the results will finally be announced
Rumour, or speculation tonight, is that the whole Caucus may have to be completely run again. The app, which was only installed late last week with no time for it to be tested or anyone to be trained on it, is rumoured to have actually trashed the data. The 50% they are now declaring is all they have got left in paper records, because the cream of morondom were just keying the results directly into the electronic system without keeping an actual paper trail. We shall see.
Oh lord! Like I said to me friend, they should just cancel it and run it again as a PRIMARY at the very end of the process. It can be the last state instead.
They've still got a long way to go to beat the shambles of Florida 2000.
They've released the preliminary results, based on 62% of the votes counted, which give:
26.9% – Buttigieg
25.1% – Sanders
18.3% – Warren
15.6% – Biden
12.6% – Klobuchar
1.1% – Yang
It seems odd (and some would say...suspicious) that they've released partial results; as we don't know if this 62% is a representative sample, a different set of winners could have emerged if the remaining 38% were counted. Buttigieg will be happy that he appears to be the fake frontrunner at the moment; his name will dominate all the headlines and allow him to shape the media narrative over the next few days.
Yang may drop out soon then.
Wouldn't surprise me if he did. I suspect Yang didn't think he'd win the candidacy anyway; likely saw it as helping to leverage name recognition for a future run for Congress or to the Senate.
So er... Buttigieg is apparently leading the delegate count in these partial results despite Bernie having (quite a few) more actual votes. Caucuses are really ridiculous and need to be scrapped.
Fair play to Mayor Pete though, he's done much better than expected (whether or not he ends up 'winning'), shame for him that the media attention will be more on 'the entire caucus was a shitshow' than his strong performance.
At the least this should sink Biden. Getting no or very few delegates from Iowa for a candidate who's trading on ""electability"" is really not good.
I do reckon that the final 38% of that result will end up with Sanders narrowly ahead, but Buttigieg is going to do well out of this.
If you want to have some political geekery fun with the results that HAVE been announced, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus-precinct-map.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive®ion=Component, that shows the result of every precinct on a lovely coloured political map..
For the really rural precincts, you can easily imagine how the caucus in the village hall or whatever turned out. For example, there's a Klobuchar (green) precinct at the north of the state where in total 3 people turned up, one Biden, one Sanders and one Buttigieg and decided amongst themselves to award their precinct delegate to a candidate no one had as their first choice.
And those maps are why I think Sanders will edge ahead, there's marginally more urban districts left to announce than rural districts, and he does better there.
Trump's approval ratings are on the rise now,at 49%. Not brilliant but doing better.
How childish of Nancy Pelosi for tearing up Trump's State Of The Union speech whilst standing behind him. Likened to what a 5 year-old would do. All this will hopefully play in to his hands and hand him 4 more years in November.
She really is the gif that keeps on giving.
Sanders is now 2,000 ahead on the popular vote statistics I'm seeing even after final alignment, and 5,000 ahead on first alignment should that mean anything... yet he has 19 less state delegate equivalents than Buttigieg, democracy.
Still the same number of national delegates at least but this shit will probably end up with Buttigieg edging ahead on that as well.
550-547 on the 'media focus but eventually means nothing' state delegate equivalent metric that is the ONLY one that Buttigieg is still ahead of Sanders on with 97% reporting!!!
I mean honestly, if this shit had happened in a Latin American or African country there'd be op-eds filling American newspapers on how this undermines democracy and we need to intervene to sort it out.
They literally staged a coup for this in Bolivia last year. Hypocrites.
https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/06/buttigieg-and-sanders-move-up-biden-slides-after-bungled-iowa-caucuses/
The Iowa result seems to have boosted both Bernie and Pete, at the expense of Biden and (despite actually doing quite well in Iowa) Warren. Bernie up 3 points and Biden down 5 over the course of just two days giving Bernie the lead in this particular poll for the first time (although still statistically tied with Biden).
Also a fun observation, FiveThirtyEight's model for the primaries currently has Bernie favoured to win every single state. Now wouldn't that be fun. Although that has come with a footnote that the model is based on the assumption that the winner of Iowa would get a big boost from media attention but that is likely to be less impactful this year since the media focus was mostly on the caucuses as a whole being a giant mess, and also more focused on the success of Pete than Bernie, so the model is almost certainly overestimating him.
The DNC have stole Bernie's victory speech. He has declared victory now, but the national DNC want a review into these awful results. Anyone see the UTTERLY FAKE coin tosses too?! No wonder Bernie has never won a single one. Wow!
They are supposed to be DEMOCRATS. If they want to wheel out their preferred candidate, FINE. Just do it. But don't conduct sham democracy x
FiveThirtyEight have Bernie at 49% to win the democratic nomination.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
Sanders 49%
No one - 24%
Biden - 18%
Warren - 4%
Buttigieg - 4%
Sounds a bit high to me.
No-one means a brokered convention by the way and Superdelegates deciding.
Their ranges are pretty wide right now but they have him very likely to win New Hampshire by a mile, likely to win Nevada, and South Carolina is now looking like a tossup. This is most excellent momentum. He's also technically the most likely candidate to win every single state now, even in Delaware he's essentially tied with Biden. He's managed to be boosted by Iowa.
It's not nailed on yet, 538's predicted delegate count for him is a bit short of the number by which he wins the nomination outright without superdelegates, but on their ranges, he'd be so far ahead of his nearest rivals that they couldn't oust him without some true f***ery. Though the maths will change as other candidates start to drop out. I am concerned that Bloomberg and Warren will end up hurting Sanders if they don't withdraw soon, though that is likely Bloomberg's aim.
you'd think the Dems would want to unite to defeat THE GREAT EVIL because this is literally of the highest priority right now but nope. Politics~
I still feel like too many of the predictions aren’t taking Bloomberg into account enough. He’s 2nd top with a lot of betting odds now and climbing faster than anyone else - and we have no real clue how well he will do in the primaries yet. For me he’d be the worst candidate so chances are he’ll get nominated
Bloomberg would surely be even more of an enthusiasm drain for the Democrats than Biden. I really can't see a universe where he somehow wins the primary, money is literally the only thing going for him.
What worries me the most is the very real possibility that no one gets a clear majority of the delegates which opens up the DNC pulling some shenanigans to run one of their moderate candidates even if Bernie wins.
I think if Bernie is pulling numbers like the 538 prediction, which is roughly 1700 for him, and 400-600 for all of his nearest challengers bar maybe one pushing 1000, then even though yes he doesn't win the nomination outright, any shenanigans would be so transparent I'd hope the DNC wouldn't have the balls.
Though that depends on how delegates from dropped out candidates realign themselves, I've forgotten the rules on exactly how that works.
New Hampshire poll of 2020 Democrats: CNN/UNH
Sanders 28% (+3 since January)
Buttigieg 21% (+6)
Biden 11% (-5)
Warren 9% (-3)
Gabbard 6% (+1)
Klobuchar 5% (-1)
Yang 3% (-2)
Steyer 3% (+1)
I only wish that the Labour Party leadership contest released attack videos are brutal as Biden's on Mayor Pete:
Great answer from Elizabeth Warren at an event last night.
Someone in the audience asked her about a running mate, and said "Who will be your Mike Pence, and look at you with adoring eyes, the way Pence looks at Trump?"
She replied "I already have a dog"
There are rumours of a big announcement by Kamala Harris tomorrow, probably an endorsement of Biden and putting herself in position to be his VP choice.
Biden himself has effectively confirmed it anyway when he said something about how he'd like his VP to be a "woman or a person of colour".
Biden doing... not so great. x
The latest national poll has Bernie 8 points ahead with a huge drop for Biden (though in this one it's Bloomberg picking up the most and nearly overtaking Biden, though Bernie and Pete both made solid gains too), again the first time Bernie has been in the lead with that particular pollster.
Biden is currently 5th in New Hampshire with ~10% reporting...! Is he this election's Jeb?
Bernie with a fairly solid lead so far, Pete Buttigieg battling against Amy Klobuchar (!) for 2nd. #klomentum?
edit: also apparently Andrew Yang has now dropped out.
time to start klobbering!!!
Good stuff for Bernie so far and sad to see the back of Yang but hopefully he or his ideas can get another shot in the future.
this is apparently where the candidates are leading according to the New Hampshire exit poll:
klobuchar and buttigieg have double teamed Biden and obliterated him on the few issues that Sanders doesn't satisfy people on.
And Michael Bennet has now also dropped out.
*tumbleweed*
literally hu?
he was doing a lot of campaigning in NH so less votes than Deval Patrick on current numbers is not a good look
Pete closed the gap a bit (in percentage terms at least, I think he's been around 3-5k behind in raw votes the entire time) but NH has been called for Bernie now. Not as comfortable a win as he'd have wanted but a win is a win.
Iowa's result: Pete 26.2%, 14 delegates, Bernie 26.1%, 12 delegates.
New Hampshire's result: Bernie 26.0%, 9 delegates, Pete 24.4%, 9 delegates
I know the delegate numbers from this thing don't matter in the long run but that feels wrong. Would have been better for Bernie to win a bit stronger but this is very good for him nevertheless. Nevada still looks good for him.
How ridiculous. Getting 1.6% more votes yet the same number of delegates exactly.
Reuters reporting this morning that Bietenieg in second and Kloubuchar in 3rd and yet no word of the winner 🤔
The establishment will reign in behind those two clearly!
From BBC News:
Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary contest, on a terrible night for former vice-president Joe Biden.
The left-wing senator took a tight victory over centrist former mayor Pete Buttigieg, who offered a different Democratic vision in the race to take on President Trump in November.
Mr Sanders declared the night "the beginning of the end" of Mr Trump.
Success in New Hampshire - like Iowa - offers momentum for the race ahead.
Finishing behind Vermont senator Mr Sanders were two moderates - Mr Buttigieg and Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, who emerged as a surprise contender by taking third place.
Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and Mr Biden - two erstwhile frontrunners - finished in fourth and fifth places.
Technology entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Colorado senator Michael Bennet both dropped out of the race.
I am slightly disappointed by Bernie’s NH performance, I’d have like him to take the lead in totoal number of delegates over Pete but I’d imagine that will happen in a week or two anyway
Some UK bettings sites like Betfred and Coral now have Bloomberg just as likely to win the Presidency as Bernie! I mean they all had Clinton winning the election so it's not reliable but it is interesting that so many people are willing to put their money behind Bloomberg this early on
Interesting article from Five Thirty-Eight:
The Democratic primary is in a confusing state at the moment. And our forecast model is a little confused, also. There are a couple of assumptions it’s making about how the polls may react to New Hampshire that may not be entirely right. The model is also limited by the lack of polling in states after New Hampshire, most notably Nevada and South Carolina. So we’d encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in.
But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:
Model takeaway No. 1: Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing.
I’m going to be relatively brief here as I’m writing this at 2 a.m. in the morning. But let’s take the Sanders conclusion first. The model’s contention that he’s the closest thing to a frontrunner in this race seems inescapable to me. Sanders won the popular vote in each of the first two states (and he may eventually win the state delegate equivalent vote in Iowa). He leads in national polls (having recently overtaken Joe Biden). He’s raised a ton of money. He polls fairly well in Nevada (or at least he did back when people bothered to poll it). And he has a reasonably diverse coalition that should net him at least some delegates in almost every state and congressional district.
There are also some negatives for Sanders. While he won New Hampshire — although pledged delegates were split evenly between Sanders and Buttigieg, which the model gives Buttigieg a tiny bit of credit for1 — his 25.7 percent of the vote there underperformed our projections by 2 to 3 percentage points. New Hampshire is a state that by all rights ought to have been fairly strong for him (as Iowa should also have been). And although Sanders leads in national polls, he averages only 22 percent of the vote in them, unusually low for the national leader at this stage of the race. Between the slight underperformance in New Hampshire and a couple of mediocre polls coming in for Sanders while our model was frozen awaiting New Hampshire results, he actually fell slightly in the forecast from where he had been 24 hours earlier.
Still, Sanders’s 38 percent chance of a pledged delegate majority is far better than any other Democrat. He also has a 52 percent chance of a pledged delegate plurality. Even if this isn’t the strongest possible version of Sanders, he’s come far closer to actualizing his potential than anyone else in the field. Furthermore, the tactical considerations of the race are setting up well for Sanders: The moderate “lane” still very crowded and perhaps even getting more crowded (no longer just Biden and Buttigieg but also Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg!), and Sanders has pulled well ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the progressive lane.
But New Hampshire is also good news if you’re rooting for chaos. Our forecast has the chance of no pledged delegate majority up to 33 percent, its highest figure yet, and roughly double what it was before Iowa.
Almost everything went well from the standpoint of a contested convention. Sanders won, but with a smaller share of the vote than the model expected. Moreover, the second and third place candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, may or may not be poised to take advantage of any post-New Hampshire surge they get, having begun the evening at just 10 percent and 4 percent respectively in national polls, and not having any obvious strength in Nevada or South Carolina. Meanwhile, the two candidates apart from Sanders who had seemed to have built the broadest national coalitions, Warren and Biden, did terribly in New Hampshire. (Although the race is so wide-open that they can’t entirely be counted out either — especially not Biden — at least not until we see some Nevada and South Carolina polling.) Meanwhile, Bloomberg continues to rise in polls, including having his first polling lead of the campaign in any state in an Arkansas poll that came in while the model was frozen.
I can't believe this and surely he wouldn't agree. They're desperate to stop Sanders it seems.
WASHINGTON—As the beginning of primary season upped the stakes in their search for an alternative candidate, Democratic National Committee officials reportedly mulled Monday asking Donald Trump to run for president as a Democrat in an effort to stop Bernie Sanders. “He’s obviously not our first choice, but Trump has a track record of winning elections, not to mention he does well with the conservative voters we’ll need to swing some red states blue—if that’s who we need to ask to ensure Bernie doesn’t win, we’ll do it,” said DNC chairman Tom Perez...................
Nelson Mandela became president at 77. Trump believes he should run AGAIN for a third time, at which point he'll be as old as Sanders is now. Tonny Bennet is in his 90s and still recording. I hope people start using this line of defence against the ageist attacks I see from other Democrats' supporters on twitter.
Yep Trump has reportedly said the two-term limit is ridiculous as he believes he should serve more than two terms as America needs him.
Have seen the Twitter ageist comments too Michael. Not just about Sanders but Biden, Warren and Bloomberg too.
Honestly if Bloomberg wins the nomination it would be almost like Trump is running for the Democrats and in many ways, worse. At least Trump was dumb.
The amount of people online defending Bloomberg from all these leaked tapes because "he could be out nominee you can't attack him like this" are such hypocrites. It makes you think, are they really disgusted by all the things Donald Trump has said or are they only pointing them out because he is their enemy.
Bloomberg is a Republican and the sooner the Democrats realise that they better, though I doubt they will and I'm fairly sure he will somehow become the nominee now
Last week I was going to joke that if the Democrats want to win the next election, they should make Mitt Romney their nominee. The more I hear of Mike Bloomberg, I wish it were him.
He’s been accused of many of the same things as Trump in terms of sexual harassment (and worse). The only difference is that Bloomberg literally has a media empire behind him, and enough clout that he could pull down several other media channels that don’t toe his party line by pulling his funding. He’s got the money to clinch the nomination , it’s then a matter of what the Democrats do next - I imagine that a majority would fall behind him, with a sizeable minority opting for A 3rd party candidate.
The worst thing about this though? It makes that gosh-awful spider episode of Doctor Who, where a Trump-hating billionaire tries to become US president, prophetic.
Watching Bloomberg buy his way into this election is just insane to witness — the US desperately needs campaign finance reform. Do democrats really want to elect someone wasting that amount of money? And with his track record? Him and Trump are just different sides of the same coin.
It is quite terrifying to see how much impact money has in US elections. It’s scary to think you can literally buy your way into office. Some many people beholden to their financiers first and foremost, that’s no democracy
From CNN:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Post-NH South Carolina poll!
Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Steyer 14%
Buttigieg 8%
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Biden's lead is down quite a bit. But this is also hardly catastrophic for him.
If those results were to translate Biden would still be very much in this. He's been prematurely written off in some peoples' opinion, in truth the map is just horrible for him to start off with, but if he wins that he'd get a huge boost coming into Super Tuesday which have a set of states favourable for him.
.
He is continually falling across all demographics. Nevada is next. Imagine if Bernie wins there too! Bernie is way ahead in California and Texas, the two most delegate-rich states, and rhe ones that basically gave Hillary a plurality. Biden's best chances are now in South Carol and Florida, but no candidate EVER has done as badly as he has in early states and gone on to win. That's not to say that shenanigans can't happen at the convention, but for the actual process, no, he's done. It's not even a discussion at this point. We can only hope that he doesn't go into TOTAL collapse and can hold out until at least Super Tuesday before giving up. Sanders is 10 points clear pf him ALREADY, note trajectories, for super tuesday. Btw, he has also never won a single caucus or primary in three separate runs, sooo.
So, yes, it IS catastrophic for him.
Bloomberg, all centrist candidates pooling their votes and getting effective wins basically everywhere, or a Klobuchar Buttiejg double act are far more of a threat than Biden now.
I didn't write the above Michael. A CNN reporter did. They must know what's happening. He's started badly but is still in with a chance according to him.
Yeah ... nooooo. CNN despises Sanders and loves Biden. It is not impartial here. If you had any clue about how American media works, yiu would not say, oh, they said it, so it nust be true It's not even like that here.
Okay then I bow to your superior knowledge. Must admit I don't know much about the US media except that Trump dismisses most as fake news.
From NBC:
Democrats seem to be trying their best to lose in November.
After reports that Sanders is considering Gabbard to be his VP, there is a report in the NY Post now that Bloomberg would ask Hillary Clinton to be his VP.
Would make McCain's pick of Palin actually look sensible.
I told you all months ago that we may not have heard the last of Hillary yet. Bit surprised she's not pitched herself in as a candidate yet. Still very very bitter about being beaten by Trump.
I would be flabbergasted at Sanders taking Gabbard. He's on record as 'probably a woman, and maybe a woman of colour', but there's so many other options that would ensure that his ideas are continued after him. Tammy Baldwin seems a good shout, Nina Turner's name has been mentioned, and even Rashida Tlaib is more likely than Gabbard.
Bloomberg + Hillary is a) not happening and b) perhaps the least likely pairing to beat Trump yet.
She won't take it and it won't be offered. She's far more comfortable sitting "throwing shade" from the sidelines, if she had any desire to still get the top job she wouldn't be waiting around for a VP call.
Bloomberg is more canny than that anyway.
Bernie will be "considering" a lot of people right now. He will "consider" a lot more if it means they drop out and endorse him! Tulsi would get a role in his admin - maybe even secretary of state - but not VP. Her 2-5% polling would help him out.
So! Bloomberg is HILLARY.
It sounds like he was always hanging around as her plan B. He wants her as his running mate. She will agree. Her voters will splinter off from Biden, Warren Pete and Amy and support Bloomberg. Bloomberg then only needs to spend a year as president and then resign, handing off the presidency to her.
They are running out of time to pull this off, so hopefully Bernie can walk the nomination.
Bloomberg is far worse than Hillary. He's a billionaire with his fingers in everything who's attempting to buy the presidency through sheer tidal waves of money and bribery. At least if you disapproved of Hillary's corporate agenda you could vaguely rationalise a lesser of two evils thing and justify voting for her...
This is an absolute joke. Talk about buying your way into power. And controlling an aspect of the media to do so too!
We no longer live in democracies. We live in pure oligarchies now.
If Bloomberg wins the nomination, you'd hope that a decent number of Americans would finally begin to question whether the system is working. If it happened, I can see a third credible candidate standing and splitting the anti-Trump vote.
Was watching clips from The View and it astonished me how much sense Meghan McCain was making. She was essentially calling out the media for completely ignoring all the racist etc. things Bloomberg has said whilst Joy sat there defending him and reading out things Trump has said?
I don't get this option that seems to exist that its ok for the Democratic Nominee to be racist cause Trump is too and probably worse?
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
#National, NPR/NewsHour/Marist General Election Poll
Biden 50% (+6)
Trump 44%
Bloomberg 48% (+4)
Trump 44%
Sanders 48% (+3)
Trump 45%
Buttigieg 47% (+2)
Trump 45%
Klobuchar 47% (+2)
Trump 45%
Warren 47% (+1)
Trump 46%
Reid Wilson
@PoliticsReid
WISCONSIN WH'2020 poll (Quinnipiac):
Trump 50
Klobuchar 39
Trump 51
Warren 41
Trump 49
Buttigieg 41
Trump 50
Sanders 43
Trump 49
Biden 42
Trump 49
Bloomberg 41
Those Wisconsin numbers are not good at all for Democrats. Clinton lost it by less than 1% in 2016 and now depending on the candidate the Democrats appear to be 7-11% behind, that's an enormous step backwards in a state they should be wanting to take. Democrats seem to be losing the most support in white areas which perhaps demonstrates how divisive identity politics is, when you embrace one group you unintentionally exclude another. In these head to head polls Warren almost always performs poorly compared to the other Democratic candidates, and I wonder if that is because she so strongly plays identity politics with gender. Of course there is nothing wrong with addressing issues that disproportionately affect women and/or minorities, but if those issues are all you talk about you shouldn't expect votes from men and non-minorities because you have given them no reason to support you
PENNSYLVANIA WH'2020 poll (Quinnipiac):
Biden 50
Trump 42
Klobuchar 49
Trump 42
Bloomberg 48
Trump 42
Sanders 48
Trump 44
Buttigieg 47
Trump 43
Warren 47
Trump 44
MICHIGAN WH'2020 poll (Quinnipiac):
Sanders 48
Trump 43
Bloomberg 47
Trump 42
Biden 47
Trump 43
Warren 45
Trump 43
Buttigieg 45
Trump 44
Klobuchar 45
Trump 44
This really was fantastic to watch — hopefully Warren just ended the Bloomberg campaign.
I’ve watched that like 4 times now and I swear down it gets better every time. This time I noticed Klobuchars face at the start on Warrens first attack and she was like “oh damn that bitch got me real good”
You’re not flying to London City from Tegel this morning are you Michael? There’s a lass here in a Bernie 2020 shirt - first time I’ve seen one in Europe - and the only possible person I can think who would have one on the good side of the Atlantic is you 
I thought Michael was a he?
i never realised Trump was even that egotistical to also try running for the Democrats against himself
I agree with people on other forums and in the US press who say that the only person who would definitely beat Trump would be Michele Obama. Black female with the surname Obama could give them a landslide but she's shown no interest in standing.
Nevada results starting to come in now with Bernie having a lead over Biden who really needs to come second if he's still to have any chance going forward.
But can we really call Bernie the frontrunner? After all he's only winning the popular vote, the delegate count, the predicted matchups in both future primaries and the general and the hearts of millions of Americans. The Democrats need to be thinking about how to stop this.
the media are ghouls. Very hard for them to downplay this though. It's not a close victory like it was in the first two states, there's only a few reporting but the result's not in doubt, he currently has over 50% of the vote!
Reports that Sanders is to be given full Secret Service protection now as he's looking like the front-runner and because of all the Stop Bernie calls. Maybe they're thinking it only takes one nutter with a gun who believes he shouldn't get the nomination. Usually it's only when the nominee is confirmed that he/she is given a 24 hour armed SS team. Obamas got it much earlier though and Clinton already had it for life as an ex First Lady.
That's the correct answer. I was doing a sarcastic impression of MSNBC/CNN news anchors/Democratic establishment heads who seem barely able to contain their dismay that a candidate leading a popular revolution and getting people excited to turn out for their party is looking like their next presidential candidate.
What’s this crazy fascination with age?! Have you met some 80 year olds? My grandma at 82 was more active than an average 30 year old and she didn’t even have access to presidential level health f***ing care.
The general opinion is that Trump is a clueless orange thing but he’s still the president somehow
These Nevada results *.* Buttigieg is currently only barely above the 15% threshold to win any statewide delegates, hopefully he'll end up dropping below that.
You're far underestimating the American disdain for political dynasties. There are more than four families in the USA and it's not supposed to be an oligarchy. Plus it would be nice if the first woman president wasn't connected to a man who'd gotten there first, it's a little bit bad optics.
Anyway, been both enjoying Sanders' total dominance and the scrambling of 'reasonable centrists' to start talking him down. No other campaign can claim anything other than a total failure from Nevada and weird things like Buttigieg's ramblings about a story of a power cut aren't going to do it.
I really do think that Bernie would win the general quite easily. Trump's so clearly running scared.
Crushed it.
Whoops again, buzzjack!! One even tried to say he was Corbyn 
Told y'all I know a thing or two x
Whoops again, buzzjack!! One even tried to say he was Corbyn Told y'all I know a thing or two xIf he loses South Carolina, he's done. If he wins, he limps on. He might eventually, if everyone else drops out (but I can't see Pete dropping out due to how smug and arrogant and anti-Bernie he is, or Bloomberg for that matter), get 2nd place, but eh. Bernie is the frontrunner.
Whoops again, buzzjack!! One even tried to say he was Corbyn Told y'all I know a thing or two x
His Iowa and NH losses were historic.
I have to say my confidence that Bernie will definitely beat Trump is not quite as much as it was before after seeing that one poll showing him losing to Trump in Wisconsin, as that's going to be one of the most important states. If Trump is holding onto the Rust Belt even with Bernie as the candidate then I don't think there's really much the Democrats could do to stop him being re-elected which is a pretty scary thought. That is just one poll though and other polls have come out which show Bernie and indeed all the other Dems leading there and holding larger leads in the other Rust Belt states.
I am still very confident though that Bernie is the Democrats' best hope of making the race against Trump as easy as it's possible to be, because the other Dems would do worse in those states (and they'd make up for it by, what, making South Carolina and Mississippi slightly less one-sided while still losing?) There is also another very encouraging sign for Bernie in that he's done extremely well with Latino voters (winning over half of them in Nevada) which is a good sign for him in the increasingly Dem trending states with high Latino populations like Arizona and - dare I say it - Texas (I wouldn't go so far as to say I expect him to win Texas but it wouldn't be wildly out of the realm of possibility).
If the Democrat establishment weren't so INCOMPETENT, they wouldn't have basically rigged the primary season last time and allowed a fair fight. We would have a Bernie presidency right now! Incumbents are simply harder to beat and Trump has a cult. It will be a battle this time around.
Re: Trump's defeat, last year I was about 70% sure a Democrat would beat him, with Bernie being a riskier choice with regards to that question. Now my guess would put it at about 50/50.
But I increasingly feel that the best route to beating Trump is choosing Bernie, even if he's not still exactly the ideal candidate. It's not that my faith in Sanders's ability to win has improved, but more that Primary voters so far - a majority of whom haven't voted for Sanders - have failed to coalesce around a different option. You can point to all of the non-Sanders options and claim they have their own electability/other serious issues anyway. 
Hoping for more Nevada-like results going forward.
I'm also spooked by the 12% of the Sanders Primary voters in 2016 ending up choosing Trump in November and, given the way the Primaries are going, I can't help but feel this number will be higher amongst the losing cohort of Primary voters, regardless of whether Sanders or a moderate is chosen.
Also an interesting side note - based on the results we have from Nevada so far Bernie's leads in the three different metrics of the convoluted caucus system are the exact inverse of what they were in Iowa, there he went from a 4 point lead in the first alignment to a 2 point lead in the final alignment to essentially a dead tie / very very marginal loss in the state delegate equivalents, whereas in Nevada he currently appears to be 'only' 17 points ahead in the first alignment but 22 points ahead in the final alignment and 26 points ahead in the county convention delegates. Weird. xx
Pete has fallen beneath 15%! 
From Politico.
MIAMI — Bernie Sanders says he’s the Democrat best-equipped to defeat Donald Trump in November.
But Florida Democrats insist he‘s the worst-equipped after Sanders’ refusal Sunday night to thoroughly condemn the Cuban revolution. His comments on 60 Minutes sent shock waves through the nation’s biggest battleground state, where Democratic members of Congress, state legislators and party leaders warned that his nomination — and Sanders’ self-described “Democratic socialism” — will cost them the biggest battleground state of them all.
Donald Trump wins Florida if Bernie is our nominee,” said state Rep. Javier Fernandez, a Democratic candidate in a majority-Hispanic state Senate district.
“If Bernie Sanders is atop the ticket, it’s going to make it tougher for all of us to win in Florida,” said Fernandez, who has endorsed Sanders’ rival Joe Biden. “No one really sees Sanders winning Florida and I don’t think his campaign does either.”
As a state with an influential cross-section of Latinos whose families fled leftist Latin American regimes and violence, Sanders embrace of far-left leaders and his past refusals to wholeheartedly condemn Latin American strongmen and the Soviet Union have long been seen as fatal flaws.
Sanders on Sunday did nothing to allay those concerns in a 60 Minutes interview in which he was asked about his 1985 comments stating that the Cuban people didn’t “rise up in rebellion against Fidel Castro” because “he educated their kids, gave their kids health care, totally transformed society.”
There was no mention of the firing squads, political purges and mass arrests that accompanied the 1959 revolution.
"We're very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba but you know, it's unfair to simply say everything is bad. You know?" Sanders said Sunday when asked about the remarks. "When Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing? Even though Fidel Castro did it?"
Sanders’ campaign dismisses concerns about socialism as modern-day “red-baiting” and points to polling, however, that shows he’s essentially tied with Trump in Florida, just like other Democrats like Biden.
But that could change under the kind of sustained assault that Trump’s campaign is waiting to unleash once he becomes the nominee — Florida is a must-win state for Trump.
Donald Trump wins Florida no matter the Democrat nominee, I'm fairly certain it's trending Republican in a way few other states are.
Anyway, this interview, it's a 'ask him about Cuba, he won't condemn it completely and then we've got him' thing.
In any case the great thing about the Sanders campaign is that it's not necessarily about one man, it's just being led by a very charismatic man who's had a lifetime of fighting for social democracy.
https://www.newsweek.com/boy-asks-pete-buttigieg-help-coming-out-gay-1488624?
I though this was lovely, and moments like this show why it's a momentous and important thing that he's running and why I'm glad he's in the race. (even if he's completely not who I'm backing to win in this).
Yeah saw that yesterday and meant to post it but forgot.
From CNN.
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has widened his lead for the Democratic presidential nomination and overtaken Joe Biden in support among African Americans - a voting bloc that until now has largely favored the former vice president, according to a Reuters/Ipsos national poll released on Tuesday.
The result could spell trouble for Biden, the one-time frontrunner who has lagged behind the field after the first few Democratic nominating contests. To remain a viable contender, Biden has been banking on a strong showing in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, a state where black voters make up more than half of the Democratic electorate.
The debate last night was a joke, Warren getting booed from bringing up Bloomberg's sexual assault allegations again? Bloomberg getting cheered for saying the bare minimum
The consensus seems to be it wasn't a great night for Bernie which doesn't fare well seeing as this is the last debate before Super Tuesday. I think Biden will take SC fairly comfortably now.
Apparently there is a group of republicans that are set on ruining the democratic election by voting the worst candidate. My guess is they were there cheering on Mike to stir up some trouble.
https://operationchaos2020.com/
Republicans are just the worst ugh.
Operation Chaos. Love it LOL. Anything to get Trump re-elected.
You lot would vote for Hitler if he was fat and smiled and had a beautiful young wife and insisted that all the claims against him were fake news from whiny liberals.
Don't be silly. Trump's nothing like Hitler. He was an evil monster.
Yeah this is literally being shady as f**k and honestly nothing funny about this.
It's of course totally impossible that a leader today could also be an evil monster and have enough money and power to make the image of himself presented to the public be that that hides or downplays his worse qualities. Completely implausible.
I think SC will be a narrow victory for Biden, just enough to keep him in the race. Sanders will do very respectably but suddenly one clear state loss and everyone (by which I mean the news pundit class being bought gotten by Bloomberg) starts talking about him running out of steam. Remember it always was likely to be a comfortable victory for Biden, if Sanders does well then he's still very much the frontrunner. He's still on to win every Super Tuesday state except for Alabama.
Klobuchar and Warren are almost certs to drop out after Super Tuesday, I think they're only still in to see how much support they can muster from their home states. Steyer and Gabbard will go too, possibly Steyer after SC, and the only reason Buttigieg won't go after Super Tuesday is that a) his home state is further down the calendar and b) he's convinced himself he's Obama.
I don't understand why they have live audience there anyway, it's not a f***ing press conference :|
It’s not even remotely informative or uses anything approaching a scale that means you can understand where on the left/right scale they sit. (And by that I mean the RoW scale and not the US L/R scale)
Is the BBTory showing itself as a hard rught propaganda station again? It hasn't even been a week since their far right Question Time audience chief had a Britain First Free Tommy far righter screaming propaganda on the show. BBTory just casually uploaded the clip as well. Vile.
From NBC's political editor.
Now I see that leading members of the democrat party are saying that THEY will do all they can to ensure that Sanders does not get to stand against Trump even if he wins the nomination race, and they call themselves 'the democratic party'. They would prefer to inflict damage to their own party than to have a democratic socialist at the head, I'm certain I've come across this contempt for the democratic process before, quite recently and across the Atlantic last November and December.
As I said, he's gonna get a taste of 'the Corbyn effect' from the UK. The rich and powerful elite or establishment will NEVER just sit back and allow a socialist to be in a position to push their snouts away from the trough that they believe to be their birth right.
We saw 'so called' UK Labour party MPs side with the rich and powerful, even plotting a coup against their own democratically elected leader, putting two fingers up to the vast majority of their membership and most outrageous of all, to democracy.
Both the US and the UK demonstrate the utter 'sham' of their democracy, "you can have all the democracy you want so long as it does as it's told", as soon as it strays from the 'acceptable' conditioning then we get a glimpse of the reality of our 'democracies'
Good luck Bernie you're going to need it, especially if as expected now you get the nomination.
Stay away from underpasses at night and grassy knolls in the day time.
We don't live in democracies, especially in the US and UK. Our democracies are a sham. We live in a neolibreral plutocracy.
The US is supposed to be the biggest Democracy in the world. It's said that any American can grow up and become President.
The 538 forecast suddenly gave Biden a huge jump today and Sanders a huge fall, making it the closest since Iowa. It's now back to predicting Biden doing as well in SC as the predictions looked before the process began. Apparently that's the polls, but sure is strange how the momentum is now against the candidate who won Nevada so strongly. Almost like the media and their Democratic backers are going into overdrive panicking.
The Democratic Party needs to nominate the popular choice (Medicare For All is the key, it's simple and the hottest political issue for America), or be broken up. I feel that one of those will happen.
I suppose a slight positive to come out of this is that its greatly lowering Bloomberg's chances too. But it seems pretty clear now that Bernie is getting less likely to meet the threshold to win the nomination outright and the super delegates will give it to Biden
Yeah, the democratic establishment desperately trying to paint Biden as rhe big winner with momentum when he finished a distant second is just lol. These polls feel VERY Michigan 2016 with the fake polls trying ro boost Hillary. Republicans can and will vote in this primary, though. Maybe they said one thing in public, Bernie, but will vote Joe for maximum chaos now that Bernie is the front-runner.
That is who the DNC is all in on. Whoever is telling him to run for president is a disgrace.
Definitely suspicious of these South Carolina polls. The DNC desperately claim that Biden's momentum exploded due to a weak 2nd place finish. Ho hmmm I know that is the narrative they want, but these polls all smell very Michigan fakery 2016. The DNC had rhe fake polls released for Hillary in order to persuade through the bandwagon effect. If Bernie had won South Carolina, he would have outright won the nomination. What better time to fake some polls and give it to the superdelegates?
If not a conspiracy, then 2 reasons: 1. Centrists freak out once Bernie has a massive win and rally around one candidate in south carolina, and that candidate being the one they were supporting a few months ago and the 2nd place finisher, or 2. Republicans are voting for Joe, knowing he is suffering from a mental decline and showing synptoms of dementia, in order for the DNC to steal the nomination and guarantee a Trump victory.
https://mobile.twitter.com/shaunking/status/1233776288252538881
No idea how to embed tweets, so check that out. Massive anti-Semitism vs Bernie from CNN. To think that these were the same people trying to use that vs Bernie's campaign!!! The neolibrals are busy claiming any left wing politician, at the moment a Jewish one at that, is anti-Semitic, whilst they pump out ACTUAL anti-Semitic comments like that!! It's beyond contempt.
The DNC is now so desperate, they have resorted to Republican voter suppression tactics.
https://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/1233827915332227072
Why were the lines so long? Oh. Well! In counties suspected to go to Bernie, polling stations were shut ... for no reason
I know that is the narrative they want, but these polls all smell very Michigan fakery 2016. The DNC had rhe fake polls released for Hillary in order to persuade through the bandwagon effect. If Bernie had won South Carolina, he would have outright won the nomination. What better time to fake some polls and give it to the superdelegates?Apparently Biden has won every county in South Carolina which Hillary didn't even do in 2016.
Tom Steyer is dropping out of the race despite coming third in S.Carolina.
Bloomberg has announced he is not standing down despite being told he is enabling Bernie by splitting Joe Bidens vote.
Allegedly the Biden campaign wants Warren and Klobuchar to stay in the race till Super Tuesday as there are signs in Minnesota (Klobuchar's home state) and Massachusetts (Warren's home state) they may block Bernie from winning there, Klobuchar is currently leading in Minnesota by about 5 points.
Analysis from NBC:
The aim for Biden will be to restrict Bernie's delegate count lead and to finish a clear 2nd place on Tuesday, hoping for the field to narrow and consolidate around him thereafter.
Biden might not finish with most delegates, but the hope for the democratic establishment is for Bernie to fail to win a majority of delegates at the convention and for the superdelegates to put Biden over the top.
The closer Biden gets to Bernie the more viable that option becomes for the DNC. The NYT reported some very ugly noise coming superdelegates, interviewing 93 of them, almost all saying they personally don't like Bernie Sanders and will not vote for him even if he gets a plurality of delegates. That doesn't bode well for him at a contested convention.
It would be some delicious irony if Bloomberg did enable a strong Sanders victory on Tuesday.
Klobuchar is currently on to win Minnesota but (correct me if I'm wrong any actual Americans) I have this impression of Minnesotans being particularly patriotic to one of their own which is why, and the only reason she's stayed in the race this long has been about making her campaign seem 'homey' for Midwesterners and just about nobody else. Warren will probably lose Massachusetts. No reason for either to drop out yet, and if Warren actually is going to make good with actually being on the left of the party then endorsing Bernie would have a stronger impact if she actually takes part in Super Tuesday, even though she will take a few delegates and waste them.
Bernie knows he has to get an overall majority of delegates to clinch the nomination. If he falls short then the Super-Delegates will give it to Biden if he's second. 93 were interviewed anonymously and most said they disliked Bernie and would vote for Biden to stop him even if that means losing to Trump.
Wait and see. If they give it to Biden -and frankly, forcing him to run in his current mental state is just abuse of the elderly - the Democratic party is finished. It would be a landslide Trump win, and not only because Trump would take Biden apart. The democratic base would stay home after their candidate had an election undemocratically stolen from him AGAIN. Would the dnc be so self-destructive? They want Trump to win for the gravy train to keep on rolling ... but if the party splits in two, that funding starts to dry up. So! We'll see.
Pete Buttigieg has withdrawn ahead of tomorrow’s primaries.
Makes all polls irrelevant. Fnc probably had a hand in it. His supporters are alnost evenly split between Biden and Bernie, but that may change ig more moderates drop out. However, it means Biden will hit 15% in more locations, basically confirming a split convention.
Elizabeth Warren is in the smoky back-room deals against Bernie. Wow. Fake progressive. I was right all along! Buzzjackers, hang your heads with your awful judgement of character and awful political predictions.
I like Warren and think she'd make a great President. Far better than Hillary, Bernie or Joe.
So I have been off of supporting Warren for about a month, ever since that clash between her and Sanders in the debates. It came across as ungenuine and trying to play this narrative of identity (whereby people will support a woman, any woman, no matter their policies). Ever since then I've heard almost nothing about her policies and just stuff about her character, which is pretty superficial when you're going to be running one of the most important countries on Earth. At the moment, she has no credible path to the White House and if she truly is a progressive, then she is hurting the leading progressive candidate by staying in for Super Tuesday.
Most analysts are saying that Buttigieg's withdrawal (calculated and cynical to the end) will help Biden as it allows for there to be one less moderate choice and allows Warren or Bloomberg to reach viability in a few states, thereby having a knockon effect of less delegates for the top 2 and more likely to reach a brokered convention which we have strong reason to believe will be an anti-democratic shitshow should Bernie go in with a plurality and not a majority. Warren staying in for Super Tuesday only hurts the progressive cause.
So Super Tuesday is almost here with a huge 1344 delegates out of the 3979 total up for grabs tomorrow.
From CNN.
Q: Why is Super Tuesday a big deal?
A: It’s simple: There are a whole lot of delegates at stake.
The way to win the Democratic nomination is by winning delegates — specifically, winning 1,991 out of 3,979 pledged delegates, enough for a majority to get the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. And there are 1,344 delegates — one-third of the total — up for grabs in Super Tuesday’s contests.
Though there will be several more months of primaries remaining, it’s possible that Super Tuesday can settle the nomination contest. It’s not mathematically possible to reach the “magic number” of delegates yet — but Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 won so convincingly on Super Tuesday that their opponents quit shortly afterward.
States voting tomorrow with no. of delegates. From CNN.
California (415 delegates)
Texas (228 delegates)
North Carolina (110 delegates)
Virginia (99 delegates)
Massachusetts (91 delegates)
Minnesota (75 delegates)
Colorado (67 delegates)
Tennessee (64 delegates)
Alabama (52 delegates)
Oklahoma (37 delegates)
Arkansas (31 delegates)
Utah (29 delegates)
Maine (24 delegates)
Vermont (16 delegates)
American Samoa (6 delegates)
CNN experts analysis.
If a candidate finishes Super Tuesday with 40 percent of delegates so far, he or she needs to win 56 percent of the remaining delegates for a majority.
If the top candidate has 35 percent of delegates after Super Tuesday, he or she needs to win 59 percent of the remaining delegates.
If the post-Super Tuesday leader has 30 percent of delegates so far, he or she needs to win 62 percent of the remainder.
So while the expectation now is that Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner, and polls appear to back that up, this won’t really be set in stone until we see how he — and everyone else — does on Super Tuesday.
Sanders could, as many now expect, win most states by significant margins and build a sizable delegate lead that will carry him to the nomination. But if there’s a late swing to another candidate — such as Biden, who just won big in South Carolina on Saturday — Sanders could also lose his frontrunner status quite quickly.
For the other candidates who have had more mixed outcomes or little success, Super Tuesday is really do or die. If you don’t get a significant chunk of the Super Tuesday delegates, it becomes all but impossible to get a pledged delegate majority.
Possibilities:
One candidate emerges with a large delegate lead and on track for the majority: This would mean they’re a commanding favorite to win the nomination.
One candidate emerges with a large delegate plurality in a split field but is not on track for a majority: This means that person is the favorite to get the nomination eventually, but one or more of their rivals could continue campaigning to try and deprive them of the majority and make things interesting at the convention.
Two candidates split almost all the delegates: This would likely mean a two-person race going forward, with the outcome up in the air, but likely to be settled before the convention (since it’s extremely likely, in a two-candidate race, that one person ends up with a majority).
Three or more candidates split delegates, and no one’s on track for a majority: This is the scenario where a contested convention would be most likely and votes of the so-called Super Delegates come in to play.
Finally, it’s entirely possible that we won’t actually know the Super Tuesday outcome on Super Tuesday. For instance, California takes a famously long time to count votes (due to the need to verify late-arriving mailed ballots), and the exact vote shares and margins both statewide and in its 53 congressional districts could be important.
If one candidate does end up winning almost everywhere, that might not be such a big deal. But in this nomination contest so far, it’s usually prudent to expect that things could get messy.
Klobuchar's gone and endorsing Biden.
They're really coalescing around the anti-Bernie candidate now. Dear god.
I have been a fan of Warren for the past decade — it's a shame to see her destroy her credibility like this. It's been a massive disappointment, other than the first debate with Bloomberg, for a few months now. PAC money, hoping for a brokered convention, the attacks on Bernie. Do they really think the Democrats would even cope if she walked away with the nomination despite having the smallest share of delegates? It's time to drop out and endorse Sanders, anything else is selfish and destructive to herself and the party.
I am starting to believe she is a Manchurian candidate, bought and paid for by the eich to infiltrate the left. That's what she did as a professor after all.
I missed out this - what did Warren do?
It's not so much a conspiracy as much as it is looking at the basic electoral maths and seeing that it only hurts Warren's progressive cause to stay in at this point, and the only other answer is that Warren has an ego keeping her in. Which I think she does to an extent.
Her campaign has taken on a distinct shift towards moderate liberal politics also, while still remaining the common second choice for progressives. I think it's clear she wanted to try and be the 'unity' candidate but didn't consider that there are such irreconcilable differences between the wings of the party that it tore apart her base. Honestly, moderate Democrats and progressives in many cases shouldn't be the same party. The former are conservatives who care about at least appearing civil to minorities and the latter are leftists who are only engaging with this corrupt party because they want a chance at actually changing something.
Klobuchar definitely had a talk with Biden, given she immediately endorsed him. Buttigieg was also flying to a Biden rally not long after his campaign's suspension. If you don't think this was orchestrated then I'm sorry but you're naive.
I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that Warren's been persuaded by certain people with a lot to lose to dog Bernie enough today to get a contested convention and potentially remain in the race as a spoiler for quite a while. Not as likely as Buttigieg/Klobuchar ensuring that the moderate vote wasn't split but still pretty likely.
This moment is the first and only time I'm glad Bloomberg is running, even if everyone working for him and liking him can be bought, he can't so at least there'll be some split on the other side of the aisle.
From reports I'm seeing, Warren got 9$ million out of agreeing to stay in the race until after super tuesday. That's all her morals and progressive policies cost. That's if we believe she really is a progressive.
FiveThirtyEight is deeply depressing today. Here's hoping their numbers are just wildly overreacting to relatively limited data since Saturday (although the most recent polls are showing an alarmingly big swing back to Biden).
It's the false hope that kills me. It really seemed for a moment that Bernie was in touching distance of being unstoppable but everything seems to have very rapidly turned against him. I hope if Biden is going to be the nominee after all that it'll at least be a fair and clear win rather than convention shenanigans with Bernie keeping a small plurality but denied the nomination anyway. I have very little hope that Biden beats Trump under any circumstances though. Biden at least feels mildly more palatable compared to the worryingly real prospect of Bloomberg getting it I guess...
Also wtf is Elizabeth Warren doing?
I hope that Biden is the nominee as I think he'll be easier for Trump to beat.
Trump's already saying "sleepy Joe's so sleepy he doesn't even know which contest he's even supposed to be in at the moment. Never mind they'll wake him up to tell him"
Hope is the only thing that we have Braylene :'(
Where the f*** did you pull that shit poll from?! Bernie is INCREDIBLY BUT INCREDIBLY popular in Utah. They despise centrist establishment democrats. He will win it um TODAY.
First ST exit polls due at 10pm UK time.
Yeah, no. Utah hates establishment democrats.
what is it with you and grave circling white male hyper controlling “progressives”? It’s like a left wing version of Chris at his least tolerable except with the ability to do a confirmation biased google search.
Because the alternative is terrible neoliberal shills like Hillary or Sleepy Joe.
To be fair, Michael is right - Joe Biden is essentially Hillary Clinton 2.0. If the Democrats wants to lose the electoral college again then fair enough, I suppose some of them hate Bernie Sanders and his policies just that much. Much like the centrists and the Liberal Democrats hated Jeremy Corbyn and left wing policies more than Brexit.
Breaking News: Tornado in Tennessee with structural damage in Nashville. Some polling stations damaged and voters re-directed to others. Am watching CNN.
Didn’t say he was completely wrong. But it is possible to be partly right without making me want to carve my eyes out with a rusty dull spoon.
Also still doesn’t give you license to dismiss out of hands things that don’t fit your narrative. (Still a little in shock at Chris providing actual relevant and accurate receipts for once)
I don’t think Sanders is the right answer because I don’t think America is ready for that yet. This is a country that arguably has never been further left than centre-right in modern history. The political institutions aren’t sturdy enough for the change and they’re still too stacked with right wingers not to water down the changes. And that’s without even considering the individual state legislatures and the heavily decentralised way the US operates.
I wouldn't really put much trust in that Swayable Utah poll, they've put out polls from all 14 Super Tuesday states and that one + the Maine poll (which also has Bloomberg in the lead, massively out of line with other polls) are with much smaller sample sizes (and so much larger margins of error) than the other states. Vermont also has a small sample size but the result there isn't even close to in doubt so that's less of an issue. Also Swayable looks to be a pretty new and untested polling organisation, they don't even have a pollster grade on FiveThirtyEight. The couple of other Utah polls (and the 2016 result) indicate Utah should be a win for Bernie. God knows really though, a lot has changed in the last few days.
Well, it's all over. Trump has won. The Supreme Court is lost for 30 years.
Bloomberg wins American Samoa, with the only other viable candidate being... Tulsi Gabbard. Lol.
More importantly though Biden was instantly declared the winner in both Virginia and North Carolina. Both not at all surprising but still, the fact they weren't even remotely close is early confirmation that the huge Biden surge is real. Sigh.
Bernie instantly won Vermont. Obvz.
Wih the older voters out in force, the establishment candidates being brought into thr fold the day BEFORE Super Tuesday, and Warren bought and paid as a spoiler, it's over.
Had Bernie smashed Super Tuesday, as he would if they hadn't planned this perfectly behind the scenes, it would be different.
Now, he either gets a small plurality and loses at convention, or Biden gets a small plurality and wins at convention anyway. So! Enjoy 4 more years of Trump, everyone! 4 years of Trump and Bojo. Wow.
NYC retracts North Carolina Biden call. The mainstrram media is calling them as early as possible for Sleepy Joe and as late as possible for Sanders to discourage Sanders voters in Western states where polls are still open.
Warren 3rd in Mass so far.
This is all academic to me now. I don't support establishment democrats and now that Bernie can't get an outright win, he cannot win the nomination with how corrupt and desperate the dnc is. They WILL keep Warren in the race, practically forcing her with the purse strings for her senate reelection and any future race.
Not sure where you’re reading that? I’ve read that Obama called Pete but didn’t say anything about endorsing Biden, and according to Amy’s team she hasn’t spoken to Obama.
I do think America can be ready for a left-wing president, but when the media acts like a blunt cudgel at manufacturing consent for a candidate that won't upset the status quo for rich oligarchs, it's going to be an uphill battle all the way.
Biden looking at winning Minnesota and Massachusetts is not good, Warren ended up being a complete negative on the progressive campaign given the latter. Still looking like Sanders is ahead in Texas though last I checked.
California's been called for Bernie but full results and delegate counts might not be available for a while. Which is bad for him, getting the narrative of a big victory in the biggest state was the only hope of a positive narrative from this night.
Biden's now even looking like he might be ahead in Texas (where apparently some voting lines are open HOURS after the polls closed, jesus christ) I do think the candidate that comes out on top in Texas is extremely likely to end up winning the nomination, rightly or wrongly, such a big state and what is now unbelievably a major Democratic target being a tossup is very significant.
And that is why the Democrats closed 100s of Texas polling stations in Latino areas the day before Super Tuesday without warning.
But oh look. Who won Utah? Sigh. Bullshit pollx Common Sense. Bernie is widlldly popular in Utah as I said.
CNN saying Biden's won Texas. Great night for him.
From CNN:
Time for Bloomberg (and Warren) to drop out, they are getting 15% in a number of places so their continued presence risks a brokered convention which could lead to long lasting bitterness within the party.
Clearly Biden is now the strong favourite to win the nomination. We don't see it as an enormous endorsement of Biden per se (except from black voters), a week ago it was Sanders who looked like he had a strong national lead. Voters are merely rallying around whichever candidate they feel is most likely to beat Trump at the time.
Our early prediction is that Trump beats Biden with a slightly bigger electoral college vote than he won in 2016 but not necessarily a landslide.
Ding dong Bloomberg’s gone
As CNN are saying, it's not over til the fat lady sings folks. Biden doesn't have a huge delegate lead over Sanders, less than 100 without California. Still a lot of states to vote in the next few weeks.
Bloomberg urging his supporters to now support Biden though as he feels he's their best chance to defeat Trump and that's what matters this time.
If Biden does get the nomination it's best he does it by a majority rather than at a contested convention which can mean bad feeling in the party. A majority means he won fairly and Sanders lost, as a poster said above, simply because less people voted for him.
I don't wanna be pessimistic but I think it is kinda over now, I jus can't see how Berne can bring it back now. He needed to do very well in states like Texas and Massachusetts to ensure he gets a majority not just the most votes and he couldn't even win those states
Yeah it is over now unless something really miraculous happens. Biden winning Massachusetts and especially Minnesota is a gigantic oof, that's even worse than the already bad projections FiveThirtyEight had for Bernie.
Biden is still polling well in head-to-head polls against Trump so I hope I'm wrong that he has little chance in November.
(Lol at Warren not even coming top 2 in her own state btw - and yet she STILL isn't dropping out!)
Time to bring out the 'here's how Bernie can still win' meme (which means, for those among us who don't get irony, that we definitely think it's over).
Obligatory getf***edbloomberg but otherwise yeah, this is a good time for Republicans (they couldn't have been more obvious about how they wanted to face Biden and yet everyone still fell for it) and, for about six months, the doddering grandpas who voted for their own doddering grandpa in the mistaken belief that he stands a good chance, and just about no one else. Establishment wins again, poor people get f***ed on their health, and anyone who cares receives a stern reminder that electoralism can only go so far when so much of it is controlled by the establishment's interests.
At the least I hope Bernie can dog Biden a bit in the debates to come and still finish well. There's a long shot but possible turn of events that I'd quite like to see a few of play out, including but not limited to, the DNC forced to look corrupt by not nominating Sanders as the popular vote winner, Sanders running as a third party candidate, revolution, you know.
Shame the half a billion dollars couldn’t have gone to worthwhile causes rather than feeding an ego. An absolute disgrace and an embarrassment.
No chance at all Bernie will run as a third party, he pushed hard for Hillary after losing last time and I'm sure he'll do the same for Biden this time. Because when/if Biden loses the media will once again blame Bernie for it because of some of his supporters refusing to back Biden in November (ignoring the fact that those people would most likely never have voted for Biden regardless even if Bernie was never in the race). Maybe more likely that Tulsi Gabbard might try and run as a third party for the lolz.
Michael, admit it, Bernie's just not popular enough in enough states to win the Nomination. Interesting as all your various conspiracy theories are, they're rubbish.
Bernie wasn't as popular as Hillary in 2016 and isn't as popular as Biden now. Anyway Biden's more qualified as he was VP.
You are completely and utterly naive.
When you have Republicans crossing over and voting for Biden to get Trump a weak candidate, there is nothing to be done. Add Warren as a paid spoiler and of course he can't win. There are some roadblocks that are too large for ANY campaign to get around.
Anyone seen these YT videos with Joe getting a little over familiar with woman and girls? There was one posted on DS today where he's touching the chest of a little girl, over top but still, and she keeps trying to nudge him off. It's as clear as anything. Bet Trump and the GOP uses these.
We've already got the worst person we know tweeting with the perfect attack angle, HE's saying Bernie was robbed and Warren helped to ensure that he'd lose states to Biden. And well, if he's seeing an opportunity to win over disaffected Bernie supporters who are fed up with DNC/media bullshit, this will be easy street for him.
I don't see a path for victory for Biden at all.
The grim predictability of all of the other candidates coalescing around a mediocre candidate, simply because they had the greatest chance of defeating Bernie Sanders is depressing to see. It's quite possible that we now merely get a repeat of 2016. Bring on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2024 I guess.
Actor James Woods, banned many times from Twitter, said today that "Biden will choose Hillary as his running-mate then if they win he'll resign as his dementia worsens and hey presto, she fulfils her dream and then gets re-elected in 2024. Watch this space"
You literally posted that yesterday. What's the point you're trying to make here?
Warren has now dropped out after all, so we're officially down to a 1 v 1 (ignoring the irrelevant sideshow of Tulsi Gabbard). She hasn't yet given an endorsement.
Bernie's campaign made a fes misteps with the political operations game and that's all it took for Obama and the DNC to pounce and force everyone behind a man showing clear signs of worsening dementia. He is a figure easily controlled by the DNC too. Sigh.
I want Bernie to run 3rd party. Trump will win anyway against Joe, so may as well try and take down the electoral college once and for all and create a multi-party system while you're at it.
No, no, Biden is desperate for Warren as VP to try and unite the two parts of the party.
Officially-on-the-medal-table Gabbard and that one American Samoan delegate are going to come through at a contested convention, I believe. #tulsi4americaspresent
The next debate will be interesting, it'll be a head-to-head. But good call for Warren, she had nowhere left to go.
(enough with rumours about VPs to be quite honest, we won't officially hear about any of that for ages yet)
I actually agree with your rumour that he probably forced her out, too. If she'd stayed in, progressives wouldn't have forgiven her. With her out and Joe winning anyway, now they will see her more favourably. They might refuse to vote for old sleepy Joe, but if his vp was Warren?? Fake progressive, but she can still get some moderate change through, palatable to the rich and non-rich alike. And they'll look at his mental decline and age and go, well, okay, it's a vote for Warren.
I think she won't endorse anyone just like in 2016. If she truly believed in her ideals, though, she would endorse Bernie and go around with him in a double whammy campaign.
To compare Hillary 2016 vs Biden 2020, a failure vs a potential/probable failure.
My prediction is that Biden will do only slightly better with white voters with no college education, hopefully halting the bleed, and perform just as well with well-educated, anti-Trump ex-Republican voters (disproportionately women) but making no progress in that group which should be trending Democratic. I think that Hispanic voters won't quite be as strongly Democrat as in 2016, and this could close off the Arizona/Florida route.
But most of all I think turnout will go down by a lot. I also think it will be down some amongst Trump's contingent too, I just hope by enough.
Maybe I'll remember this post in 8 months.
Wow Biden's polling at 61% in Florida now so he should take that on 17th and is tipped to take Michigan on Tuesday too. Think it really is all over.
Yeah and so was Hillary
It is what it is. Bernie's campaign made some massive missteps, which it couldn't afford to do wih the entire establishment against it.
I hope a new party forms out of the ruins of the democrats after 2020. Bernie won't start one before, unfortunately. The Progressive Party.
We can just hope that Bernie runs him close.
But seriously, sending a man with clear signs of dementia into a battle with Trump is just beyond contempt. The dnc and his family know about his mental decline, and yet got all in behind him.
To hide Biden's cognitive decline and to protect him from a one on one, the DNC are canncelling events, citing corona, and have CHANGED THE ENTIRE FORMAT OF THE DEBATES!!! Now, they sit down and answer questions from the audience and don't engage each other. Omg.
Sleepy Joe has apparently offered the vp slot to Amy Klobuchar due to her being from the midwest. Whether he offered it to all of them, only for him to conveniently forget, remains to be seen.
You all know what I think of Trump, but I don't like Biden or the DNC at all! Nothing would change with Republican Joe in charge. Who is there to root for in this situation? With Joe, the DNC will choose left-wing Supreme Court picks, but the balance has already gone and it is now to the right. On the other hand, if Joe managed to win thanks to the DNC, then the DNC would use that to hamper progressives for years to come. Soooo. I guess I'll just watch with a bemused expression. There is very little chance that Joe can win agaisnt Trump anyway.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/mar/11/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-democratic-primaries-michigan-live-coverage for Biden last night.
Progressive ideas and policies polled favourably again. Oh well.
Definitely over for Bernie now but will he throw in the towel or stay in for the next debate?
So the Democrats have chosen a republican to represent them in the presidential race in November, the fools.
Bernie: *proves Biden is lying*
Biden: [Oprah style] "YOU get a female running mate, YOU get a female running mate, we ALL get a female running mate!!!"
everyone: okay this is over, Biden CLEARLY should win now omg what a man *.*
Sigh.
If he is going to say that they're female, why not tell us who it is? It's just blatant tokenism otherwise where it doesn't matter as long as they're a woman. I mean, this is binders full of women 2.0.
I'd have liked Bernie to go in a little harder, he needs to be brutal at this stage and what I saw wasn't cutting it.
Biden's won Florida and Illinois, with Arizona yet to declare, and Ohio... I don't know what's gone down in Ohio, it seems like it's delayed. The pandemic surely affected turnout and that'll throw the results into question for some... will the rest of the primaries even be able to happen with the current situation?
I know that everything is getting cancelled and delayed left and right (har har) right now but the US election won't be unless their government completely collapses. The world's oldest representative democracy is not going to let 200+ years of 4 year presidential terms get delayed for anything. It didn't happen in the world wars and it's not going to happen now. Allowing it to do so would raise up such a stink as it basically gives Trump a free year in office (if defeated and Biden commits to 3) and without a pledge to make the cycle re-right itself for 2024 could give him a nine-year term... and that'd make the heads of liberals explode.
Now maybe the primaries will be thrown a bit and people will question it, but it seems very likely it's a Trump vs Biden race at this point so legitimacy is okay.
Tbh if Trump goes and supports M4A + YangUBI to help people through this crisis and fix the healthcare issue such like then frankly he'd deserve to win if Biden wasn't going to promise the same.
It's more likely to be completely mail-in ballots or even online than cancelled. Sorry.
The date of the US election is literally in their constitution, it's not something they can just change. Theoretically anyway.
New polls show Biden SMASHED in Ohio and Pennsylvania. He is tied in Wisconsin. Well done, DNC and your army of boomers!
Well the US has managed to be the WINNER of country with the most infections in the world. So great. I’ve heard them say biggest win in history.
Michael's right only in the sense of accelerationism vs status quo, you'll supposedly get more people voting for leftists if their lives are really bad. Which isn't good, if I were an American I'd still be voting Biden as a form of harm reduction and I'd hope most leftists would do the same. It wouldn't be MUCH of a harm reduction, I reckon there would be materially very little change if a lot of optical change. For all we say Trump is an idiot, the most meaningful difference between him and Biden is that Biden is "supposed" to be a president, while Trump is not. And that is what's driving Biden voters the most, Trump is an idiot, and it is the foremost priority of the country that he is removed. In their minds. I suppose the biggest actual reason for voting Biden over Trump is directly reducing racial hostility. There should definitely be healthcare and worker's rights in there but Biden isn't that sort of president, he'll pass a few anti-discrimination laws, keep liberal and identity politicians happy, and also prefer spending on the military while poor people suffer under the same system they've suffered from Reagan to the present.
But if you think that 'showing' the DNC by making their chosen candidate lose will make them HAVE to pick a progressive next time you're not thinking realistically. They'll want to nominate milquetoast centrists (who in some cases are really just conservatives) until the day they die out. That's how politics is 'supposed' to be for them. And their corporate backers.
Just found this.
The synergy between Donald Trump and the coronavirus pandemic is a disaster.
Writing at the Advocate, John Casey summarizes this deadly synergy: “As this crisis deteriorates, becomes unmanageable and inexplicably horrible, so will Trump’s behaviour. A perfect storm that will unravel an unprepared, unrelatable, and unsympathetic president. A fairy tale turned into the horror of all horror stories.”
As many of America’s and the world’s leading mental health experts have repeatedly warned, Trump is mentally unwell to the extreme. He has publicly and repeatedly shown that he is a malignant narcissist, a pathological liar and a delusional fabulist. He is detached from reality and appears to live in his own fantasy world. His lack of empathy, care and concern for others can reasonably be described as sociopathic.
For many reasons, including his mental health, overall temperament, values and intelligence, Donald Trump is existentially ill-equipped to handle this emergency and defeat the coronavirus pandemic.
Dr. Bandy Lee is perhaps the leading voice among those who have warned the American people and the world that Donald Trump’s presidency would result in disaster. She is a professor of psychiatry at the Yale University School of Medicine and editor of the bestselling book “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump.”
In our most recent conversation, Lee contended that explains the pressures of the coronavirus pandemic are making Donald Trump’s various mental pathologies worse and more dangerous. She explained her view that Trump, aided by Fox News and other parts of the right-wing echo chamber, is creating a collective state of mental illness among his cult members that is making the coronavirus even more lethal.
As she has done before, Lee argued that Donald Trump is the most dangerous person on the planet and expressed her concern he may use the coronavirus pandemic to start or inflame mass violence in order to keep himself in power permanently.
Once again, Trump has managed to hit a new low. When signing the massive economic rescue plan into law, he said that State governors who have been particularly critical of his administration shouldn't bother to call to ask for help. Someone needs to remind him of the First Amendment to the Constitution he claims to love so much.
Wow. That is truly some psycho shit
“The woman in Michigan”. Not even bothering to learn the name or calling her a governor.
Let’s hope the virus does it work on him ASAP for everyone’s sake. It’s a bad thing to say this but that’s what some people truly deserve. He played with lives of so many people and continues to do so by claiming he won’t help states whose governors don’t say a thank you to him and his lap dogs. Psychopath.
What a disgusting thing to say. You should be ashamed of saying that at this worrying time for everyone. He has family, wife, children, grand-children.
So do the majority of Americans who have died or will die because of his administration's inept response to the pandemic.
jeez. I thought it was well established among polite society that Trump is f***ing evil and cares not one little bit about the lives his government ends up throwing away as a direct or indirect response of their actions.
What a disgusting thing to say. You should be ashamed of saying that at this worrying time for everyone. He has family, wife, children, grand-children.This is the first election in a long while where I just do not care who wins. They're both utterly abysmal. It's an abject failure of a two party 1st past the post system where money has free reign and also an abject failure on capitalism's part. Without that, we wouldn't even have this choice.
the way things are going it looks like they are not going to have the same voters in November
This is an analysis of exactly why Trump has been disastrous for the USA and why the death toll is going to be HUGE compared to countries who weren't quite as intentionally crap.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster
I'm going to remind people that the Trump mastermind's - Steve Bannon - chief aim with electing Trump was to destroy democracy and the government as it is set up, and that includes pandemic experts.
It's f***ing brilliant to see all those who've spent years slagging off experts reluctantly now saying it's over to the experts to sort out, both in the US and the UK. A quick hello to Michael Gove and coronovirus Boris top of the expert pooh-poohers here.
We see you, we know what you have done, and you will never be forgiven despite bullshit "we're all in this together, the virus is indiscriminate" That's what all the experts were saying before it became a world pandemic.
I've blathered on this forum before when ebola was a thing about not being prepared - we dodged that bullet, but along came another less-lethal one that has hit the bulls-eye caused by Trump, Bannon and their greedy, selfish cronies. If it gets hold in 3rd-world countries there is going to be massive problems, both directly and indirectly, with no safety nets for people who need to work to stay alive and can't self-isolate for that reason.
Trump is currently more concerned as to whether his TV ratings are higher than the Bachelor or not...
If only someone explained to him that people are watching because they are scared what's about to happen and hardly because they are entertained. What an absolute psychopath.
Fingers crossed corona catches him
best Twitter response I read in a while
Trump has said that he wants all virus compensation cheques to have HIS signature on them instead of the usual signature of another official.
A psychologist points out that to the electorate it makes him look like the good guy compensating them himself! Clever Donald.
more like an idiot/psycho with god complex
to people who actually have a TINY bit of a clique about how taxes work
He has the biggest God complex society has ever seen
Clever Donald. Clever Donald.So, the self-proclaimed "stable genius" has misstated the population of South Korea's capital city by 28 million people, moments after telling a news conference he knew the country "better than anybody".
Bernie has been offered the Green Party nomination!! Aftee the DNC stole his nomination and gave it to Sleepy Biden, he should take it.
Also even more rumours that Trump is going to move left of Biden for thr election. Sleepy Joe is toast.
The Democratic convention to choose the Nominee has been moved to August now but no date set yet.
Bernie Sanders is suspending his campaign.
I would prefer Bernie as president over Biden, but since that hasn't been possible for a number of weeks now, this is great news.
Sad to see!
The election could be up for grabs now with all that is happening!
If Biden doesn't take up Bernie-influenced policies as a result of this then if I were an American I'd not want to vote for either, still would vote for Biden but he's a piss poor candidate and I wouldn't blame any leftist for abstaining or third-party voting.
Cursed election.
I would not vote for Biden. There is not a chance I would - and especially not after all this manipulation and cheating. Nope. Four more years of Trump and Common Sense and I are kind of on the same side, as I see four years of neoliberal Biden as far more harmful to democracy. It would affirm to the DNC that they can get away with centrist puppets and cheating forevermore. Huh. Funny ol world.
tbh if it was Bernie dropping out to ensure that the other states didn't need to go out and vote in the middle of a pandemic then I can salute that, his campaign had basically been a coronavirus fundraising machine for the past 2 weeks anyway
medicare4all to win despite everything. Given the current situation, if Biden's campaign don't put it in their platform then they're ghouls for the insurance industry and deserve to lose.
Some excellent points there
As a general rule, the challengers to an incumbent president have been pretty uninspiring in most recent elections. It seems as if the better candidates choose to sit such elections out on the assumption that the incumbent will win and that it's better to wait four years for a better chance of winning. Why waste months of campaigning and huge sums of money on an election you expect to lose and when you expect that defeat to mean you have little chance of winning the nomination again four years later?
Well, that's Trump getting another 4 years then. If Bernie had any sense, he'd use this opportunity to run as a 3rd party candidate to see if there really is a demand for his policies - if he performs better than expected ie notches up a few states and takes quite a few votes off Trump as well as Biden (I do think that there is significantly more Trump voters who would switch over to Bernie than you would think), then it means that going forward, there's a good chance the American duopoly could start to crumble and there's be a greater range of candidates going forward.
Quite. If that was a phenomenon, it's been put on hold this cycle because of the Democratic party's fervent concern that 'we need to beat Donald Trump', and anyone can start running a presidential campaign on that basis, so nearly everyone did. Conveniently, that means the policymaking team can have a rest and whoever feels like it can have a go, I mean, what else do you need to win a presidential election? Probably nothing, the Trump-hating will do it. It worked so well in 2016 after all.
See I don't think the DNC really think this election can be passed by, there's a real risk that they lose control of the Supreme Court for decades and they probably, certainly at the start, viewed it as an easy chance of getting back in office in 4 years, but they've flubbed it on delivering a candidate.
The issue is more than in a post-Trump world where people who distrust the 'establishment' (surely a majority of Americans) know they can win, a Dem promising only a return to the status quo and to forget this era ever happened isn't going to go down well. At least the Republican Party is acknowledging that the left behind nature of so many American people is legitimate. They're stoking it up with racism and hatred and won't do any good for them in the long run, but at least they're paying attention to them.
Fundraising capabilities, name recognition, media attention, the pretty obvious occurrence of every other moderate candidate falling in line behind Joe Biden once it was clear it was him or Bernie. There's some straight lines to how this ended up the way they did and very little of it has to do with Biden's worth as a candidate.
The Democratic party think Trump will be a cakewalk. They're wrong, but they do, or they'd have thrown their media weight behind Sanders/a candidate with significant policies. They've always thought that Trump is easily beatable. So I really don't think this is a case of better candidates saving themselves, because they'd be assuming that the Democrats will win this cycle and then it really would be 8 years.
With Sanders having effectively given his endorsement to Biden, there doesn't seem much prospect of a third-party candidate. Not one with any sort of name recognition anyway.
There's an interesting article on the Presidential election on the BBC website today - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52326166
The gist of it is that the date of the election is governed by federal law, not the constitution. Therefore, the date can be changed. However, that fact is rendered largely irrelevant by the fact that the four-year term is governed by the constitution. Regardless of when (or whether) the election is held, Trump's term ends on 20 Jan 2021. The term of the next two people in line (Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi) ends on the same date.
Just to add to the fun, there is a reminder that - in theory - the President is elected by the electoral college, not the people. The individual state votes are advisory, not binding (that bit might sound familiar). States could try to insist that the electoral college can go ahead without an election. What fun!
Quite concerning about the House and Senate races - with likely limited opportunities to properly hold primaries there might be legal challenges there to ensure the electorally correct candidates are selected, and in scenarios where the elections just don't happen they you have literally only 2/3rds of a Senate legally in office across both houses.
It won't look pretty either if the electoral college decides on some seemingly arbitrary basis what to vote for either.
Perhaps a big part of what those looking to defend the constitution should be doing is arranging and publicising the ability for universal mail-in ballots.
(I have no idea how South Korea managed to pull off their election a few days ago even with their comparatively good situation)
https://medium.com/@ruthannoskolkoff/party-insiders-talk-cheating-rigging-and-smearing-517601f1d9bb
Aand that was written back in January! Hence Warren randomly attacking Bernie in February, Pete mysteriously dropping out in 2nd place, 100s of poll closures, exit polls being massively wrong, etc. They went and stole it again!
On the Russian thing: my Bernie friends have bren accused of being Russian bots for months.
Warren is going to be vp. Greaaat! That's their attempts at swaying Bernie voters. Too and they have seen through her and want to primary hwr in hwr own state!
So in light of the Tara Reid allegations, and Joe's general awfulness and creepiness, rumours abound that Pete has been privately declaring himself the new presumptive nominee. Meanwhilw, presumptive VP pick, Warren, has been negotiating for TOP of the ticket, and Noam Chompsky has been mediating a Warren-Bernie discussion. It appears that Bernie wants witnesses for any and all future meetings with The Snake.
It's all kicking off isn't it, Trump had a meltdown yesterday and Biden https://www.dailydot.com/debug/joe-biden-intercourse/ in interviews.
We are witnessing an inward turning America sliding rapidly away from its global dominance to be replaced by China imminently...
God we need the European Union. Every step I see the US makes underlines that, for me, the world would be in a better place where the EU replaces the US at the top of the western hierarchy. It’s not flashy and fancy and it’s deeply flawed but it’s stable and moves with thought and diligence
I worry about the big world power passing from the US to China during this century, it's been a while since a great power wasn't a democracy!
The local town in from in a NI was featured in the Ch4 news tonight 😀 Quite cool as I riding expect it and watch the ch4 new religiously every night, by far the best news programme!
Nothing about Trump lol just NI restrictions!
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