  |
 Eurovision Song Contest 2021 - Potential Winners |
| Track this thread - Email this thread - Print this thread - Download this thread - Subscribe to this forum |
 Mar 19 2021, 10:20 PM
Post
#1
|
|
 Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,812 User: 9,885 
  
|
Now that we have all the songs (assuming that Belarus won't be taking part or won't win even if they do take part) - which are potential winners for you?
And which of the favourites do you seriously doubt have the necessary credentials to take the trophy? Any dark horses for you that have been completely ignored by everyone so far? Current odds 1 Switzerland Gjon's Tears - Tout l'univers 17% 2 Malta Destiny - Je Me Casse 17% 3 France Barbara Pravi - Voilà 8% 4 Bulgaria Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old 8% 5 Italy Måneskin - Zitti e buoni 7% 6 Sweden Tusse - Voices 6% 7 Lithuania The Roop - Discoteque 5% 8 Iceland Daði & Gagnamagnið - 10 Years 4% 9 Cyprus Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo 2% 10 Finland Blind Channel - Dark Side 2% https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision This post has been edited by Colm: Mar 19 2021, 10:21 PM |
 |
 
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 10:37 PM
Post
#2
|
|
|
Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,022 User: 116
        
|
I think any of Switzerland, Malta and Iceland could win, with Italy and Sweden certainly up there too.
I can't see France ending up anywhere near that high, I think Switzerland will mop up the French ballad jury votes and televotes. |
|
|
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 10:38 PM
Post
#3
|
|
|
Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,812 User: 9,885
|
I have my doubts about France and Switzerland competing for the same votes.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 10:41 PM
Post
#4
|
|
|
Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,812 User: 9,885
|
I'm gonna go with Italy or Finland at this stage.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 10:48 PM
Post
#5
|
|
|
#TeamAnneMarie
Joined: 3 July 2010
Posts: 18,270 User: 11,421
   
|
I think Switzerland and Malta are a sensible pairing! Will depend on staging as well as there's not one major front-runner! I don't think Lithuania or Iceland are quite strong enough to win in comparison to last year. Cyprus could contend but it might feel a bit lacking in warmth and personality in comparison to some of the other solo female artists? Then again Fuego really came alive on Eurovision week so I'm not sure! Bulgaria could also be magical if they get the staging right for it! Big stand out and I'd imagine towards the end of the final could do that wonders. France I don't see contending as much as I like it. Sweden is again a bit lacking in wow factor to contend but will be top 10.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 10:53 PM
Post
#6
|
|
|
Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,169 User: 10,139
     
|
Malta is my gut feeling, it gives me very similar vibes to Toy. Italy I wouldn't be entirely surprised at, Sweden I kind of feel is the sort that would do very well on both the jury and televote and potentially snatch the win if one of the faves underperforms in either metric.
France I feel will be the jury fave that comes 7th or so, but won't do so well in the televote. |
|
|
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 10:55 PM
Post
#7
|
|
|
Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,812 User: 9,885
|
I agree on France, Liam. 7th to 10th for France.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 19 2021, 11:27 PM
Post
#8
|
|
|
Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,169 User: 10,139
|
I don't think it even competes with Tout l'univers really, they're completely different songs just both in French, but Tout l'univers is more contemporary/accessible whereas Voila is VERY French chanson which I think will be loved by the juries and will stand out enough to do well, but it won't be widely loved enough to win at all, I just can't see it.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 12:03 AM
Post
#9
|
|
|
BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 29 April 2006
Posts: 3,392 User: 519
|
Bulgaria is the one that’s giving me the winning vibe. If they can get convey the emotion in the staging, we’re looking at a first-time win. A year of wall-to-wall bangers will swing in their favour too.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 01:47 AM
Post
#10
|
|
|
Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,812 User: 9,885
|
There's something in my head that says Tout l'Univers is too close to Arcade to win, even though there's no logical reason for that.
This post has been edited by Colm: Mar 20 2021, 01:48 AM |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 09:04 AM
Post
#11
|
|
|
Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,022 User: 116
|
It does feel like Destiny’s...destiny, to win Eurovision. If anything, not competing last year might have done her a favour as that song was good but not a winner.
Malta have also been waiting forever and so deserve it. They have come up with a standout, unique, catchy and fun track that will no doubt look great on stage, and her voice is amazing. I do still think an uptempo is more likely to win this year too rather than another ballad, just a hunch but I just think after a year of Covid people will be looking for escapism and the songs with TikTok potential will be in favour. The juries always love Malta and I see no reason they will stop doing so with this track. So I think it’s Malta’s to lose, the only thing that makes me have any doubt about this is the fact that they always seem to unexpectedly underperform on the televote. Let’s hope this track is strong enough to overcome whatever makes that happen. This post has been edited by gooddelta: Mar 20 2021, 09:05 AM |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 09:37 AM
Post
#12
|
|
 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929         
|
I am thinking Malta sounds possibly the most likely. France too, I'm not sure I see it with Switzerland, it's great but I feel like France will be able to project more warmth on stage and be the entry that stands out at the end of the night to more people. Switzerland feels perhaps a little too clinical to do that with?
Bulgaria is very staging dependent but could possibly be in the mix too. |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 12:05 PM
Post
#13
|
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 20 January 2011 Posts: 5,906 User: 12,837
   
|
Ok, so here's my analysis of the Top 10 on betting odds and some other favourites.
01. Switzerland The most obvious. Gjon has a killer voice and the song is really beautiful. I would not be surprised in the slightest if this won. At this stage I think Switzerland could easily win the contest and very well may do so but at this point in time it would be quite a boring conclusion as it's really the only standout song that gives me proper winner vibes but does Europe want another "Arcade"? I personally think the majority of casual viewers don't remember that the last winner was a power ballad too even as Duncan is climbing Spotify everywhere so that probably won't be a factor in many votes so right now Switzerland being the winner is the most likely outcome in my mind. 02. Malta Not quite as obvious. Staging and performance will be key here but the song is catchy, unique and has a message so it could definitely work and give Malta their first win. At the moment I'm skeptic but not ruling it out. Destiny has won before, although that was in Junior ESC, and with the right amount of hype, solid staging and a flawless performance I think she could do it. I'm not as optimistic as the betting odds, placing her in almost joint second, but it would be refreshing to see a new winner in Malta. 03. France Could probably happen but I'm not convinced. Everyone thought "Requiem", "Roi" and "Mercy" were potential winners and (IMO) both were far more accessible than "Voila" so I don't think France winning is very likely. Barbara is a great singer and I can understand what people who love this see in it but, and I could be totally wrong, I don't see the televoters flocking to this song. I feel like the song has some strong competition with other native language ballads like Switzerland, other ballads like Bulgaria and of course the added minus of not performing in the semis and simply being France which has under-performed with all of the fan favourites they've sent in the past decade with maybe the exception of Amir but then again he was heavily predicted to win but wound up 9th in the televote. 04. Bulgaria Could she have won with "Tears Getting Sober"? I think so, definitely. Can she win with "Growing Up Is Getting Old"? I really doubt it. This will be a jury darling for sure but I just don't see the televoters flocking to this en masse in a large enough fashion that it wins. Without having to compare it with its predecessor I just think this song is far too slow and the Billie Eilish likeness will undoubtedly also turn people off (whether it holds any merit or not) so my prediction is that Bulgaria will not win. 05. Italy Rock has historically not done great in recent post-2000 Eurovision (I don't have enough knowledge about pre-2000 Eurovision to comment on that) although Lordi did indeed win in 2006 but that was before the juries were added and the gimmick was a big part of it. Now apparently Italy's entry this year isn't that kind of rock (I am certainly no rock subgenre expert so don't @ me for not knowing what kind of rock this is lol) but still the fact remains that I think rock will always be quite divisive in Eurovision given the main audience base so for Italy (or Finland for that matter) to win they have to manage to convince a large portion of the jury not to drag them down. It's feasible but I find it quite unlikely that Italy wins this year's contest. 06. Sweden Ahh, good ol' Sweden choosing a MOR generic male pop ballad, nature is healing and all that. I'll be honest, I didn't want Tusse to win and it wasn't even in my Top 5 in Mello 2021 BUT I think he could win but only by total accident lol. I don't think Sweden winning is likely at all but I can definitely foresee it coming somewhere like 1st-3rd in the jury vote and 2nd-5th in the televote which, given a big contrast in who the juries and televoters want to win, could result in a surprise winner. Now, obviously everyone loves to hate on Sweden by saying the televoters will pay them dust while the juries carry them but lets not forget that they don't have abysmal televoter scores either coming Top 10 in the televote every time since the J/T split with the sole exception of 2018. So, do I think Sweden WILL win? Not likely. But could they win? Definitely. 07. Lithuania I know I'm probably in the vast minority here but I personally think Lithuania's chances of winning this year are slim to none. A lot of the hype it's got going for it is riding on the hype from "On Fire" but let's be real "Discoteque" is not even half the song that "On Fire" is and without taking last year into account I think Lithuania remains nothing but a novelty entry this year. Most people watching Eurovision won't remember or know about their last entry so while I'm sure it will get a decent televote score (6th - 10th or so), I'm not even convinced that The Roop will end up in the top 10 in the grand final. Lithuania don't have a great track record with the televoters with two of their biggest hits of the last decade both only placing 10th. The jury voters have warmed even less to LT, placing absolute jury bait Ieva in 11th (behind MOLDOVA?) and Danny (2016) in 12th. "Discoteque" has a fun dance, silly costumes and shallow lyrics about dancing alone (while they presumably do the opposite on stage and dance together) and there is truly nothing original about this despite the main driving force behind this entry is being unique and memorable. I will be very surprised if Lithuania manages to contend for the crown in May. 08. Iceland Now before you all say it I'll just gladly admit my bias here being from Iceland but hear me out. I think Iceland can still win Eurovision. Do I think it's likely? Not at this stage. But do I think it's possible? Very much so. As we all remember, Iceland was greatly debated as one of the countries most likely to have won Eurovision last year. A big factor in that was the hype it got prior to what would have been Eurovision but also unlike The Roop there is something so unique and interesting about Daði & Gagnamagnið. Obviously "10 Years" it has been relentlessly compared to "Think About Things" and while I definitely agree it's not as good, I do think the song could surprise the nay-sayers. Part of what could work in Daði's favor is that we know the staging will be interesting. There could be a boost in hype when the music video is released in a week or two and there is actual depth to the song and lyrics. It's not a generic pop song by any means and anyone who hasn't heard "Think About Things" or doesn't realise that it was a Eurovision song will be very intrigued by this. I'm talking about the casual viewers here that make up probably at least 60%-75% of the total viewers and voters. I think Daði will easily come top 3 in the televote, possibly even first. The juries might be a bit more tricky. Some could view this as a novelty and obviously to an extent it is but if the hype train is up and running we all know the juries can easily get on board with what the betting odds are saying at the time (see: Netta). So my conclusion is that Iceland is probably not going to win but it could very well happen if the cards fall right. It's hard to say at this time but I'm in no doubt that it'll place top 10. 09. Cyprus I don't know much about Elena outside of the music video but I don't think "El Diablo" can win. Top 10 definitely but until I see the staging I have a feeling it will only do a little bit better than Tamta. She doesn't seem like a very expressive performer and I have no idea about her vocal abilities so I could be dead wrong but given how many female pop bops we have here I think there could be a big battle for this demographic and that means it's unlikely any of them will actually win. 10. Finland Same as with Italy but only worse. Finland is definitely divisive and while I do like it more than Italy I think it's unlikely to do any better than the likes of Hungary 2018 or Georgia 2016. Before you say it, yes I know that these songs are not the same genre but you're kidding yourself if you don't think it's the same demographics that this song appeals to lol. 11. Norway Never going to win but could still do quite well. It's a well produced pop song so the juries could potentially not absolutely destroy it but more than likely it will rely mostly on televoter support. Unfortunately I'm not even sure that this will qualify but I really hope it does. 12. San Marino I'll just be happy if Senhit qualifies to the final but I don't think this is a contender for the crown, especially now that we know that Flo Rida won't be joining her on stage but I hope to see something crazy here. 13. Russia Don't foresee this as a winner but could definitely do well. Russia historically has great support from the televoters, even to the extent that they almost qualified with THAT mess in 2018. Sergey also placed 4th (ahead of Hatari, Luca Hanni, Chingiz and Kate Miller-Heidke to name a few) in 2019 with an incredibly boring and uninspired power ballad so I don't agree that they don't have the same support as before. The big difference is that now they will probably have big support from the juries too so I would not be surprised even in the slightest if this comes close to winning (and maybe even somehow actually winning) even though I think this song is an absolute mess and not my cup of tea at all lmao. 14. Moldova, 15. Greece, 16. Romania, 17. Azerbaijan, 20. Croatia Some further pop songs that will mostly be competing for the same demographics as Bulgaria (in Romania's case) and Malta, Cyprus & San Marino (everyone else). I think some of these will fail to qualify, most likely Croatia, while others will flop in the final (my bet is on Greece and Moldova). I think Romania and Azerbaijan could surprise us but neither of them strikes me as a winner but anything can happen. There's some other notable entries that could do well but I don't think any of them are contenders for the crown so I'll leave this at that as I've already included far more songs than I planned on lol. My betting odds as of 20/03: 1. (Most likely winner) Switzerland (46%) 2. (Second most likely winner) Malta (22%) 3. (Third most likely winner) Iceland (10%) 4. (Fourth most likely winner) Sweden (8%) 5. (Fifth most likely winner) Italy (6%) 6. (Sixth most likely winner) Russia (4%) 7. Anyone else (4%) Anyone else I think is not really a likely winner at this point in time. |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 12:15 PM
Post
#14
|
|
|
I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929
|
I've been wondering about Norway. I think it could go places, it's really rather catchy and we know that that can really shore up a song sometimes.
ROCK LESSON: Måneskin represents a more enduringly popular style of rock, almost traditionally such but also in the vein of Arctic Monkeys, that should appeal outside of the rather narrow base of metalheads that say, AWS, did. It is indeed more similar to Georgia 2016 but that was a lot less 'fun', this could really have a lot of energy on the stage and that can pick up a lot of unexpected onlookers. I could see it getting a rather high jury and televote. Quite possible that Italy enters the top 10 but I don't think it will win. More likely of the two to do it though. Blind Channel is almost pure nu-metal, a genre that is going to rely on nostalgia from milennial-aged people. Far narrower a base and I'm expecting the juries to absolutely destroy it (they shouldn't but they will), but I'd expect a result fairly similar to Minus One if all goes well. Not expecting it to be in contention. |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 01:43 PM
Post
#15
|
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 20 January 2011 Posts: 5,906 User: 12,837
|
QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 20 2021, 12:15 PM)  I've been wondering about Norway. I think it could go places, it's really rather catchy and we know that that can really shore up a song sometimes. ROCK LESSON: Måneskin represents a more enduringly popular style of rock, almost traditionally such but also in the vein of Arctic Monkeys, that should appeal outside of the rather narrow base of metalheads that say, AWS, did. It is indeed more similar to Georgia 2016 but that was a lot less 'fun', this could really have a lot of energy on the stage and that can pick up a lot of unexpected onlookers. I could see it getting a rather high jury and televote. Quite possible that Italy enters the top 10 but I don't think it will win. More likely of the two to do it though. Blind Channel is almost pure nu-metal, a genre that is going to rely on nostalgia from milennial-aged people. Far narrower a base and I'm expecting the juries to absolutely destroy it (they shouldn't but they will), but I'd expect a result fairly similar to Minus One if all goes well. Not expecting it to be in contention. I quite agree with everything you said here (outside of the rock song definitions which I know absolutely nothing about but I'll take your word for it)! Also about Norway, it could go one of two ways honestly. The staging is quite novelty but the song itself is pretty good and the melody is great. It could totally do a Moldova 2017 where a novelty song manages to impress both televoting and juries or maybe even Denmark 2018 where a novelty manages to go top 10 despite only impressing televoters or it could just go Montenegro 2017 and completely flop in the semi or Norway 2018 and do well in the semi but flop hard in the final. It's probably one of the hardest ones to predict for me this year 
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 02:03 PM
Post
#16
|
|
 my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,754 User: 8,674
  
|
I'm nervous about seeing Malta as a potential winner...if they win the jury vote, it'll be an agonising few minutes to find out if the televote has underrated them as it has done before or not.
Switzerland I think is a likely win, and I wouldn't mind it too much, it would be nice to see another non-English winner and the Swiss have had such a bad track record recently that you couldn't begrudge them the win, even if it's not up at the top of my rankings. I don't think Switzerland and France will massively split the French ballad vote...I mean, there are only two of them but there are so many uptempo entries that would surely split votes more? And it isn't really a thing in the jury vote (50% of the overall result) I don't think when jurors have to rank every single song? Personally I think France are just as likely to win as Switzerland, I feel more passion and build in "Voila" and Barbara will really sell it on stage. Bulgaria I wouldn't mind winning at all, it's really growing on me even if it'll never have quite the same magic as "Tears Getting Sober". Italy I just don't see and it would annoy me if they won this year lol, they should've won with "Soldi" instead or in 2017 if the staging wasn't such a mess. QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ Mar 20 2021, 12:05 PM) I'll just be happy if Senhit qualifies to the final but I don't think this is a contender for the crown, especially now that we know that Flo Rida won't be joining her on stage but I hope to see something crazy here. Has this been confirmed somewhere? I didn't want to be giving up hope until May  But as long as the verse itself remains, hopefully it's still a moment. I'd love for San Marino to come top 4 as I have an each way bet on them placed when the odds were still 200/1 (and I will vote like crazy on the night!!!), but at this point my hope is just for them to achieve another personal best. |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 02:18 PM
Post
#17
|
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 20 January 2011 Posts: 5,906 User: 12,837
|
QUOTE(J❄️hq @ Mar 20 2021, 02:03 PM) Has this been confirmed somewhere? I didn't want to be giving up hope until May But as long as the verse itself remains, hopefully it's still a moment. I'd love for San Marino to come top 4 as I have an each way bet on them placed when the odds were still 200/1 (and I will vote like crazy on the night!!!), but at this point my hope is just for them to achieve another personal best. I could have sworn I read somewhere that he won't be there in person but now that I'm searching for it I can't find it again so maybe (hopefully) I'm mistaken! |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 02:41 PM
Post
#18
|
|
|
"Everything seems different the second time around."
Joined: 10 April 2008
Posts: 8,682 User: 5,830
 
|
QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ Mar 20 2021, 02:18 PM) I could have sworn I read somewhere that he won't be there in person but now that I'm searching for it I can't find it again so maybe (hopefully) I'm mistaken! As far as I've seen, the only message has been 'Flo Rida has been involved with the track yada yada, and we're still working out if he will be with us on stage... But we'll play his rap regardless'... Also, I'm very confused at the whole backing vocals rule anyway. When Surie got stage invaded, the track clearly has backing vocals, no? |
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 02:42 PM
Post
#19
|
|
|
Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,022 User: 116
|
I read that Senhit filmed the on tape backup performance most likely by herself, as she did it in Italy while Flo Rida was posting from Instagram in Miami. Could he not be on the 'on tape' performance but still feature in person in May? I think that would be too much of a change to be allowed.
|
|
|
|
|
Mar 20 2021, 02:51 PM
Post
#20
|
|
 Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
  
|
So at risk of having egg on my face I think "Tous l'univers" is less of an "Amar Pelos Dois" and more of a "Sognu" principally because I struggle to see it connecting enough to get enough televotes to be in the mix to win (hell I'm not sure I see it in the top 10 of the televote).
Comparing Switzerland and France does I think draw out an interesting comparison. I agree that both of them are likely to do very well with the jury vote but I think France fulfils more of what I think people want to see and hear from a French ballad whereas Switzerland is more of a ballad in French than a "French ballad" if that makes sense? So I see more scope for France to actually do decently with the televote than Switzerland that I struggle to see cutting through in a field of 26. |
|
|
|
|
| Time is now: 20th April 2024 - 02:30 AM |
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 BuzzJack.com
About | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service
