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Posted by: Scene 18th September 2016, 12:18 AM

I ask this since streaming has become a far bigger force this year even compared to just last year. Christmas songs did well in the digital era anyway so could the rising popularity of streaming cause one of them to go to #1 this year? A lot of people will be going onto the Christmas playlists presumably and since digital sales are declining rapidly, would it be ridiculous to think Fairytale Of New York or All I Want For Christmas Is You could be #1 this Christmas?

Posted by: Rob S 18th September 2016, 12:27 AM

Even with Christmas songs increasing in streaming as the years go by will not be enough for Mariah or The Pogues to go to #1 for Christmas. Maybe top 5 for one of them is not impossible in the next few years but to answer this question not a chance this year.

You'd have to bear in mind that both have missed the top 10 ever since streaming has been introduced to the official chart!

Posted by: Houdini 18th September 2016, 12:31 AM

No. Justin Bieber will number one at Christmas.

Posted by: cqmerqn 18th September 2016, 07:47 AM

Well you never know

Posted by: danG 18th September 2016, 08:41 AM

I think Mariah Carey will be well within the top 10 this year. Remember she only missed out last year because Christmas Eve was a Thursday (and you all know about Thursday streams..), and streaming has only grown since.

#1 will be out of reach for her though. I think we may even get a normal song at #1 this year unless we have a charity song on the selling power level of Military Wives.

Posted by: ThePensmith 18th September 2016, 10:11 AM

We are approaching the back end of a year where Drake was at number one for four months. I'd hazard a guess at 'no' in answer to that question but stranger things have happened.

As has been pointed out above, the usual festive suspects - the Pogues, Carey, Wizzard etc - were all kept out of the top 10 due to streaming last year. And for all the world I can't see your Spotifys and Deezers giving homepage playlist exposure to 20, 30, in some cases 40 year old songs that lose all chart momentum come Boxing Day.

The trouble is as well, and I think it is this: people's idea of a Christmas song now is John Lewis getting some wispy voiced thing with a really twee stage name no one has ever heard of and will never hear of again beyond the preceding January to do some emotive, minimalist cover of any old thing and watch it do the business because of some rubbish advert.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least bit if this year it's some girl called Rain with a stripped back cover of "Agadoo" set to scenes of a snowman looking morosely on at a party he's not invited to, only to be taken in by some kid who should know better.

Oooh, I've gone all Charlie Brooker on my ass.

Posted by: jakewild 18th September 2016, 10:13 AM

if only mariah did xmas promo like she overdoes in america i think she could make it

Posted by: Ðøßßø 18th September 2016, 10:33 AM

The date Christmas day falls is crucial. It's on a Sunday this year so I don't think any Xmas tracks will end up going top 10 as the tracking week will end the Thursday before so the biggest day of streaming (Christmas day itself) won't contribute to that week. Then the week after will have 4 days of zero buying/streaming so I can't see it happening this time. We'll have to wait for Christmas day to fall on a Thursday...

As for the #1 itself, the UK is still not ready for a "normal" #1, last year would have been the one the signalled the change & it still didn't happen, so lacklustre charity single again it will be this year (and it will be only the second #1 of 2016 to spend a solitary week at the top)

Posted by: danG 18th September 2016, 10:46 AM

oh indeed I forgot about actually searching when Christmas Day falls. It seems the Christmas songs boost will be spread out across two chart weeks, as the two biggest days for Xmas streaming (24th and 25th) are at the start of the chart week and after that Xmas songs will plummet out the Spotify chart. And of course they already start plummeting down the iTunes chart on Xmas day itself. So yeah, seems unlikely that they'll get high peaks this year.

Posted by: Steve201 18th September 2016, 10:47 AM

Who knows what'll happen in the charts over the final quarter we didn't think James Arthur would be iTunes no1 2 weeks ago and now look.

As people above said tho we will have to wait until Xmas day falls on a Thursday to see if this will happen.

As for John Lewis - I think it's peak may have passed for now.

Posted by: Steve201 18th September 2016, 10:49 AM

Some like Mariah will be streamed enough on Friday and Saturday to be top 40 the following week which always makes it funny seeing AIWFCIY in the top 40 on MTV right up until 6/1 lol

Posted by: danG 18th September 2016, 10:50 AM

it'll actually be better for Christmas Day to fall on a Wednesday, because if it's on a Thursday then streams from the day won't actually get counted (as Thursday streams never do, the OCC always estimate based on trends from the past week)

Posted by: Ðøßßø 18th September 2016, 10:51 AM

Good point^ Roll on 2019!

Posted by: Steve201 18th September 2016, 10:53 AM

Yeh Dan is right - I was disgusted by Thursday's guesstimates underplaying them last year on the chart.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 18th September 2016, 10:58 AM

Mariah Carey was New Year #1 on the 2013 streaming chart (when Christmas fell on a Wednesday) - but as others have already mentioned this year it is on a Sunday meaning that the peak streaming will be split between two weeks.

Posted by: Steve201 18th September 2016, 11:07 AM

And by 2019 streaming could be in a different place to now!

Posted by: Scene 18th September 2016, 11:15 AM

Oh I didn't think of what day Christmas falls on this year. But I think what we need to remember is that buying a song is different to listening to a song. Lots of people like to listen to Christmas tracks from late November whereas they are probably less inclined to purchase them. If 'One Dance' could stay at #1 for nearly 4 months despite being out of the sales top 10 (my knowledge of the current charts is rusty so I might be wrong here), is it really that impossible for a Christmas song to top the official chart the Friday before Christmas?

Posted by: Doctor Blind 18th September 2016, 11:18 AM

Yep: Imagining will have taken over - many will condemn the imagining chart for ruining the streaming chart. Ministry of Sound will still be holding back releases on digital platforms of course and charting at #126 in their first week.

Posted by: danG 18th September 2016, 11:21 AM

You do realise MoS have stopped holding back releases now?

Posted by: Doctor Blind 18th September 2016, 11:27 AM

They've been taken over by Sony haven't they? Good riddance!

Posted by: ___∆___ 18th September 2016, 02:11 PM

A Christmas song would need to be released in July in order to build up enough streams to be Christmas #1 though tbh

Posted by: Ethan 18th September 2016, 03:12 PM

if we could have an xmas #1 that isn't a charity single, x factor ca$h in, or social media campaign, that would be frickin' awesome~

Posted by: ankietarrr 18th September 2016, 04:57 PM

So who decided about streams being included to the charts?
Did streaming companies give money to OCC under the table or artists like Drake/Rihanna etc paid them for including it?

I would remove streams and add votes to song popularity instead of sales. People could send emails or have a song lisstings on a website and can vote for songs

Remember Reshuffle on this website works really well pushing likable songs and eliminates thrash pushed and pumped by music industry pretty quick.

Last weeks can be reshuffled with last three songs being permanently eliminated from the charts would do a brilliant work IMO

Posted by: jakewild 18th September 2016, 04:58 PM

let it be mariah at least

Posted by: zenon 18th September 2016, 05:08 PM

But streaming benefits Xmas songs hugely unless I've missed something.

Posted by: JosephStyles 18th September 2016, 05:09 PM

This is nothing at all related to the current topic

Posted by: MyKindOfLove 18th September 2016, 07:18 PM

I think we'll see a normal song #1 (I'd rather NHS than Beiber anyday, even if I do like "Love Yourself" as the only good track of his), as streaming is in favour of who's big and what's popular. I reckon X-Factor, campaigns and John Lewis are confined to the history books now.

Posted by: danG 18th September 2016, 07:30 PM

Indeed.

Christmas songs in the top 40s last year

Official

11. Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
13. The Pogues - Fairytale Of New York
18. Wham! - Last Christmas
26. Shakin' Stevens - Merry Christmas Everyone
27. Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday
29. Chris Rea - Driving Home For Christmas
38. Band Aid - Do They Know It's Christmas

Sales

14. The Pogues - Fairytale Of New York
18. Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
33. Wham! - Last Christmas
37. Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday
38. Chris Rea - Driving Home For Christmas

Streaming

4. Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
8. The Pogues - Fairytale Of New York
9. Wham! - Last Christmas
18. Shakin' Stevens - Merry Christmas Everyone
25. Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday
27. Michael Bublé - It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas
29. Chris Rea - Driving Home For Christmas
30. Band Aid - Do They Know It's Christmas

Posted by: cqmerqn 18th September 2016, 07:45 PM

LMAO, true!

Posted by: Scene 19th September 2016, 01:12 PM

It's going to be really interesting to see if the rising popularity of streaming this past year will give certain Christmas songs their highest peak in years. Fair enough, a #1 is likely out of the question for this year at least but we never know.

Posted by: danG 19th September 2016, 02:11 PM

Well the Michael Bublé song has never gone top 40 and it peaked at #41 last year, so we should at least see that gain a new peak (and hopefully they play the Christmas chart in full this year just so we can hear The Boob on Radio 1 *.*)

Posted by: Sinner 19th September 2016, 02:48 PM

Best post in ages, tbh

Posted by: Steve201 19th September 2016, 10:31 PM

Well indeed it would be fantastic - they do give that particular track a fair few spins from Dec 1st at any rate!

Posted by: Jaÿ 20th September 2016, 02:25 PM

I'd be happy if Mariah's AIWFCIY even made it into the Top 10 again, after a few near misses! I'd of course find it incredible if it finally achieved a #1 peak, although I can't see it happening sadly.

Highest position it's reached each year since 2007:

2007 - #4
2008 - #12
2009 - #18
2010 - #22
2011 - #11
2012 - #20
2013 - #12
2014 - #16
2015 - #11

Posted by: Scene 5th December 2016, 04:17 PM

Bumping this because Mariah is already at #9 in today's midweeks!

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 5th December 2016, 04:22 PM

And likely to be even higher than that come Friday!

Posted by: Jingle Burbes 5th December 2016, 04:27 PM

I think it's a strong possibility that Mariah could reach #1! It's already #2 on Spotify and doing well on sales as well!

It would be fab for it to finally reach #1 so here's hoping it happens

Posted by: Dmdr 5th December 2016, 05:29 PM

I hope she does, I decided to put a £10 bet on her getting number 1 at 33/1 yesterday, so I'll be quids in if she manages it.

Posted by: twentyonemdh 5th December 2016, 05:34 PM

I think she's going to make it, if I'm honest.

Posted by: Scene 5th December 2016, 06:34 PM

I just placed a bet on her too. So annoying how she was 33/1 on Coral but by the time I fixed my internet connection she was slashed to 25/1.

Posted by: Brian Quinn 5th December 2016, 06:46 PM

Isn't it ironic that Christmas is a religious festival and yet not one of the chart contenders, nor any those already in the charts, have a religious connection.

Posted by: twentyonemdh 5th December 2016, 06:48 PM

but over the years in addition to the religious connotations of Christmas, a theme of happiness and joyousness has been incoorporated into the 'Christmas spirit', so it's not as if Christmas songs are totally irrelevant to Christmas

Posted by: ElectroBoy 5th December 2016, 07:00 PM

I put a fiver on her at 100/1 during the week when I saw how high she was on streaming

Posted by: Chig66 5th December 2016, 07:07 PM

Me too, but as I was placing my bet on Coral, she shortened from 25/1 to 20/1.
The money's on Mariah!

Posted by: Dmdr 5th December 2016, 07:13 PM

Oh my god, how annoying for you both! Got my fingers crossed for us and ElectroBoy.

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ 5th December 2016, 07:18 PM

I reckon Mariah does stand a good chance tbh since streaming is clearly on her favour. I think it'll be between her CB & The Hospice Choir & possibly Rae Sremmurd too.

Posted by: ElectroBoy 5th December 2016, 07:47 PM

Mariah's shortened to 10/1 with Ladbrokes

Posted by: Scene 5th December 2016, 07:56 PM

Good luck all the Mariah betters. Someone start a Mariah for #1 campaign.

Band Aid - poverty
Wham - heartbreak
Mariah - "f**k the Christmas Spirit, I want a man"

It seems other things have been incorporated into the Christmas Spirit too.

Posted by: pippa 5th December 2016, 07:58 PM

This year appears to be Mariah's best chance of finally going to number 1.

Posted by: Steve201 5th December 2016, 08:42 PM

The fact that Xmas is on a Sunday is making me think that this won't happen and with XF out next week rather than Xmas week it will prob mean she won't! You never know tho, wonder if the bookmakers know how the chart works like we do?

Posted by: ElectroBoy 5th December 2016, 08:50 PM

She Number 2 on streaming 20 days before Christmas and will be hammered in the week leading up to Christmas. She is also near top 10 combined on downloads already. It will almost certainly be streaming Number 1 over christmas (at the very least) and given that streaming is more prevalent than ever on the charts, I would say unless there are mass numbers downloading/ buying the next in a long line of Choir charity single then she is in with a very good shot.

Posted by: Pingu92 5th December 2016, 08:51 PM

Would be great to finally have a Christmas song as Christmas number 1! I think during the tracking week she'll have a substantial lead in streaming and will be roughly around ~5 on the iTunes chart if you combine both versions. What her team needs to do is put the price down to 59p on iTunes on the 15th and that should be enough to push it to number 1

Posted by: Steve201 5th December 2016, 08:55 PM

So if this does happen are we in a position like 2007/08 in the download era where they leaked really high in those years but as streaming took everything over they will be pushed further down in subsequent years?

Posted by: gavindeejay 5th December 2016, 10:42 PM

Just put £10 down on bet365. Odds on Mariah are 20/1.

Posted by: Common Sense 5th December 2016, 11:05 PM

What I don't understand is why the XF winner doesn't just release a Christmas song one year. I bet you any money it would be Christmas No.1. If Matt wins they should release his version of Silent Night for example.

Posted by: Steve201 5th December 2016, 11:14 PM

Popstars released Happy Xmas (War is Over) in 2003 which was a relative flop!

Posted by: XMAS Rob S~ 5th December 2016, 11:21 PM

Fingers crossed the hospice & x factor both underperform allowing either Mariah or CB to take it.

Posted by: JosephCarey 5th December 2016, 11:22 PM

Because it would only sell for 1-2 weeks and drop like a stone after that. There's a much higher chance of the winning single sticking around into January and beyond with a regular track, even if it doesn't always happen.

Posted by: MARIAH. 6th December 2016, 12:44 AM

I've done the exact same as you. (The first time I've ever placed a bet )

Posted by: Scene 6th December 2016, 01:04 AM

I know it sounds morally bad to say, but I'm sick of the charity choirs always taking the Christmas #1. It's good that they raise money for charity but do it another time of year. I wish the race for Christmas #1 could be an event again. Also, why don't people just make their own donation to the charity rather than buy a song they'll probably never listen to again?

I can foresee the rising force of streaming helping the annual Christmas songs dominate the chart in the future. In the download era, barely anyone was going to buy the Christmas songs each and every year. A lot of people would've already got them on some compilation, in their original format, or even downloaded the songs the previous year. With streaming being the dominant platform these days, in the run up to Christmas, surely most music consumers would be listening to the Xmas Spotify playlists to get in the festive mood, and for Christmas parties etc. Nobody is going to stream an uninspired song for charity - and last year's one only sold 127,000 copies.

Posted by: Frosty Xmas Baps 7th December 2016, 06:43 PM

No chance Mariah is no.1.

No.8.

#psychicbeaver

Brooklyn Beckham stands a chance though tbh! Like S Club Juniors rubbish attempt.

Posted by: Chig66 11th December 2016, 12:54 AM

Considering that Brooklyn Beckham has only taken the cover photo for his little brother's single, the chances of him also releasing a song at the same time seem remote.

Posted by: Steve201 12th December 2016, 12:09 AM

Could well if the XF one sells well!

Posted by: Scene 19th September 2017, 10:36 PM

Just over a year after I started this thread, what does everyone think the chances are this year? With the streaming ratio increasing to 300:1 for older songs declining and Christmas songs generally increasing in sales week on week until December 25th, I think Mariah could do it since she managed #5 last year. Or perhaps a new Christmas release? Little Mix could throw a curveball.

Posted by: Steve201 19th September 2017, 10:50 PM

I think the changes to the chart will most likely mean that she doesn't quite make it again prob top 10!

Sales don't always increase before xmas week sometimes they rise in the first week of December then fall and then rise in the week before xmas!

Posted by: ThePensmith 20th September 2017, 10:37 AM

Meow at that actual rant of mine a year later. Typical that the one year I rant about John Lewis' irritating method of singles being attached to their cloying adverts, the one for the 2016 advert flopped like a lead balloon.

I do think my point of a year ago still stands though: streaming is going to make it ever more difficult for a Christmas or Christmas-y themed song to get anywhere near #1. Mariah went top 10 last year, true, but it's probably shot its bolt where trying to be a Christmas number one this year is concerned.

Looking at it, Clean Bandit's 'Rockabye' got released end of October last year, and was Christmas number one all of eight weeks later. So in all honesty, any single that gets released towards the end of next month by one of the big likely names of this year's autumn release schedule - I am looking in particular at Taylor Swift, Sam Smith, and potentially Little Mix if they have something new to go soon - are going to be one of the ones most likely to get it this year.

Having said that, in light of the new 'million sellers' list being published by Official Charts today, James Masterton made a startling observation. The 'Various Artists' version of Lou Reed's 'Perfect Day' - the BBC Children in Need single from 1997 of course - is the only million seller on the list by virture of pure sales alone, as it's not currently available to stream or download (probably due to legal wranglings I'll be bound). As it's now 20 years since that single, I think the Beeb would be missing a trick not doing an updated version with the original 1997 version tacked onto its release. Mind, that awful 'God Only Knows' shambles they did a few years back to a spectacular flop springs to mind...

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th September 2017, 10:57 AM

Mariah did get the streaming #1 last year on the chart published on 30 December 2016, she will probably do it again this year so it just depends how strong the #1 on sales is on streaming services over the festive period - usually the gift card week was enough to drown out the excessive Christmas streaming but that is rapidly dwindling away... (see below for the singles market in each 'gift card week' versus mean market size at the time). Note that there is a trend downwards in the increase in market size during gift card week which is I assume the practice becoming less popular..

One thing is for sure, she is unlikely to be the Christmas number one as the maximum streams often occur over Christmas and therefore count for the week after the Christmas chart.

Gift card week sales (Change versus 52-week average market size)

Xmas '16 30/12/2016: 2,045,026 (+34%)
Xmas '15 01/01/2016: 3,046,660 (+51%)
Xmas '14 28/12/2014: 3,751,126 (+42%)
Xmas '13 29/12/2013: 4,532,613 (+48%)
Xmas '12 30/12/2012: 5,696,413 (+65%)
Xmas '11 01/01/2012: 5,451,493 (+65%)
Xmas '10 02/01/2011: 4,757,430 (+59%)
Xmas '09 03/01/2010: 4,220,989 (+56%)

Posted by: Steve201 20th September 2017, 10:32 PM

I think that is changing with the new ACR rules as the average weeks of a song at no1 is showing now although we haven't had a Shape of Youesque hit to show this in a better way. I think an xmas track could still build through December given the right song!