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BuzzJack Music Forum _ Lady Gaga _ Rain On Me (with Ariana Grande) PREDICTIONS
Posted by: Jordan Lee 16th May 2020, 04:23 PM
We have just under a week now until we hear this song for the first time
But thought I’d make this thread based on what we think it will do chart wise.
Where are we thinking this will debut at and peak.
I’m hopeful tbh!
If Stupid Love can go top 5 here I think we can push for the top 3 with this one tbh.
I also think Spotify debut will be higher than what Stupid Loves was too in the UK.
Posted by: Hauspital* 16th May 2020, 04:26 PM
Again, the poll will come next Friday for release week but this will be fun to see initial predictions before hearing it.
I'm saying top 5 and maybe a slightly healthier run that Stupid Love!
Posted by: Jordan Lee 16th May 2020, 04:32 PM
I think the album release the following week will help this remain stable in week two!
This could really get some great pure sales for week one though. Both Gaga and Ariana have their stans who like to download via iTunes.
I’m hoping next week Gaga gets the NMF cover and track 1!
Posted by: Hauspital* 16th May 2020, 04:36 PM
It's quite a brilliant release timing, cus it will obviously have a huge first week, but the second week will be great too with the album! 
her mind x
Posted by: SKOB 16th May 2020, 04:39 PM
Is there anything else "huge" out that we know of? This week is pretty light in terms of new singles.
Posted by: Jordan Lee 16th May 2020, 04:40 PM
Unless we get a shock release what’s un announced there isn’t too much to worry about I don’t think!
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 16th May 2020, 04:46 PM
I believe this can go all the way on debut, both here and in the US!
Posted by: LMLou 16th May 2020, 04:47 PM
I feel like the top of the US chart is really tough to break just now, with Say So, Savage, Toosie Slide and Blinding Lights all gaining quite a lot on radio still so I think it'll get a higher debut in the UK
I'll say like #4 UK and #7 US - with a slightly better chart run than Stupid Love in both countries. I'm hoping a better video will help it out as well
Posted by: Jαsє 16th May 2020, 04:48 PM
UK: #03 (debut), #01 (peak)
US: #05 (debut), #01 (peak)
Posted by: Andrew. 16th May 2020, 04:51 PM
This sounds like a cop out but it really depends on the song. If it's an all out, balls to the f***ing walls banger (which I'm confident it will be) then #1, if it underwhelms (and superstar collabs have in the past, Don't Call Me Angel and Walk On Water off the top of my head) then around #5. It's going top 5 no matter what surely.
Posted by: Jade 16th May 2020, 04:54 PM
US: #02
UK: #04
Secretly hoping #01 though x
Posted by: Jordan Lee 16th May 2020, 04:58 PM
UK: #04
Secretly hoping #01 though x
OMG imagine if Ariana gets another #4!
Posted by: StupidLove 16th May 2020, 06:03 PM
US: 03
UK: 01
I think it'll debut 1 in the UK and top 3 US, slowly reaching the top spot once the radio support grows. There is The Weeknd and that Rockstar song here, but I think people want new music especially from Gaga. The wait has been too long.
Posted by: Jordan Lee 16th May 2020, 06:09 PM
The Weeknd and Drake are also releasing a song together on May 22!
(Apparently the only source I’ve seen is a Weeknd fan page I follow on Facebook)!
Posted by: SKOB 16th May 2020, 06:15 PM
Not gonna believe that lol (but anything is possible of course)
The first day numbers will be big due to hype and two fan bases uniting but the quality is the most important thing from there onwards.
Posted by: Spice Girls Net 16th May 2020, 06:33 PM
UK #1
US #3
Posted by: Scene 16th May 2020, 06:52 PM
UK: 3 (entry) / 2 (peak)
US: 5 (entry) / 3 (peak)
UK Spotify entry: 6 (but it enters officially at #3 on strength of downloads alone and it will be #1 in the midweeks 
)
Posted by: Hauspital* 16th May 2020, 06:56 PM
(Apparently the only source I’ve seen is a Weeknd fan page I follow on Facebook)!
Oh.
Posted by: Jαsє 16th May 2020, 07:56 PM
PLEASE tell me that Weeknd/Drake rumour is bullshit
Posted by: StupidLove 16th May 2020, 08:45 PM
I swear we can't have a week where Drake doesn't clog up the charts
Posted by: Hauspital* 16th May 2020, 08:47 PM
6ix9nine or whatever the f*** his name is, is threatening to release again too on that week because Ariana could be blocking him from #1 in the US 
Posted by: SKOB 16th May 2020, 08:49 PM
Jesus, how awful a person can be
Posted by: LMLou 16th May 2020, 09:39 PM
ugh if that pos stops Gaga getting another one there will be RIOTS
Posted by: Jαsє 16th May 2020, 09:57 PM
Why can't he f*** off back to prison 
Posted by: Andrew. 17th May 2020, 12:05 AM
The first day numbers will be big due to hype and two fan bases uniting but the quality is the most important thing from there onwards.
WHY DOES THIS ALWAYS HAPPEN TO GAYS
Posted by: Jordan Lee 17th May 2020, 01:08 AM
I’ve searched twitter for more info on Drake / Weeknd and seen nothing except posts from 2012
Plus both of them have recently just brought out releases Drakes mixtape is like two weeks old and The Weeknds already revealed there’s no more to come from After Hours (in terms of new material we haven’t heard )
We might be safe on that front then!
Posted by: SKOB 17th May 2020, 06:18 AM
These days anything can happen, two weeks is like 4 months in the old system lol. If a shit song/album hasn't been successful, people will throw new shit out there just to see if it clicks with the public. 
For rappers, it's all about having as many tracks out there as possible.
Drake does not have any hits in the rise at the moment so he can very well do that, and IYE by The Weeknd has stalled too.
Posted by: Hauspital* 17th May 2020, 07:22 PM
I wish we had confirmation on whether these songs are dropping because it would help ease my nerves 
Posted by: Nick Jonas 17th May 2020, 08:15 PM
Sounds like the peado’s song is definitely coming Friday.
Posted by: Hauspital* 17th May 2020, 08:16 PM
I feel really sick and angry not because of the threat in terms of competition or charts, but because the release is to spite Ariana when this should've been a special and magical moment for pop music. OH WELL, going to try and maintain that mindset and not let this phase me ~~~~
Posted by: Andrew. 17th May 2020, 08:18 PM
He won't win in the UK. His song this week which I don't know the name of and never wish to (okay I've just remembered lol) only got #6 and this will surely do less? US might be a different story though 
Ugh what a c***
Posted by: Hauspital* 17th May 2020, 08:24 PM
Ugh what a c***That's what I thought! Gaga will surely beat him in the UK, but I am much more doubtful about the US
Posted by: SKOB 18th May 2020, 06:11 AM
I believe two weeks is too soon for a new track to make HUGE waves but if the video is somehow controversial (he threatens to kill someone or sth) then it might have enough virality to chart well.
The song will be very bad of course regardless.
Posted by: Hauspital* 18th May 2020, 09:09 AM
Does anyone think 6**9***'s release may actually help Rain On Me's sales? In that the Gaga and Ari stand will come out in bigger force to overcome 69? 
Posted by: Andrew. 18th May 2020, 11:06 AM
I'm calmly confident the gays and girls will come out in FORCE to buy/stream Gaga and Ari. People will be drawn to the chart battle and any decent person would root for Gaga/Ari out of the two (and that's not an exaggeration x)
Posted by: Hauspital* 18th May 2020, 11:16 AM
I really hope this is the case
Whatever happens in week 1 though, we know which song will have the sustained greater sales over time so that's that x
Posted by: HausofGhibli 19th May 2020, 11:02 AM
69 has apparently deleted the post saying he's releasing this Friday.... no idea what is going on lmao!
Posted by: SKOB 19th May 2020, 11:22 AM
The one where he licks his toes is still there though, talking about new video on Friday.
Posted by: Jαsє 19th May 2020, 12:17 PM
Posted by: HausofGhibli 19th May 2020, 01:26 PM
Yeah that is definitely something I do not need to see tyvm. I need confirmation about whether he's releasing or not because stressin'.
Posted by: davidas 19th May 2020, 04:15 PM
I genuinely think it will go #1 in both US and UK... the hype is huge and Ariana is a force to be reckoned with when it comes to chart positions since TUN.
The Drake/Weeknd release rumour was fake and I don't think 69 will make as much noise as everyone thinks he will.
Posted by: blacksquare 19th May 2020, 04:49 PM
The Drake/Weeknd release rumour was fake and I don't think 69 will make as much noise as everyone thinks he will.
Really? I'm sensing an underperformance...
I would love to be proved wrong though.
Posted by: HausofGhibli 19th May 2020, 08:51 PM
I am not confident on #1 debuts (or peaks) either. I am thinking somewhere in the top 5 both here and the US. And that would be a great success to continue the top 5 streak that Stupid Love started for the era
Posted by: Jordan Lee 19th May 2020, 10:18 PM
I’m feeling like this could peak in week one but be a long runner regardless.
However in the UK none of Gagas #1 singles went there in week one so if it doesn’t go to #1 in debut week don’t panic too much!
69s recent post about “next time he’ll go to #1” posing with his cards. Can’t they just make make another chart for his kind and have him row with R Kelly instead of dragging Ari and Justin. I swear if he name drops or mentions Gaga I’ll RIOT.
There’s definitely more hype for this than what there was for boyfriend, don’t call me angel and stuck with u though and I’d even probably say there’s more hype for this than Stupid Love too (but with SL that leaked and most of us caved and heard it before the actual release)
Posted by: Jαsє 19th May 2020, 10:24 PM
Same. Just a feeling!
Posted by: Jordan Lee 19th May 2020, 10:38 PM
YouTube wise I’m expecting BIG views for this.
Will probably outview Stupid Love by a week or so
Posted by: SKOB 20th May 2020, 06:35 AM
Not to set the bar high on hopes BUT the #1 song in the UK is currently at 45k or so. Even Stupid Love did 41k.
Posted by: HausofGhibli 20th May 2020, 08:39 AM
This makes it sound good for at least a top 5 debut maybe better!
Posted by: SKOB 20th May 2020, 08:50 AM
DCMA did 47k.. I guess that is something we can expect or perhaps a bit more considering the two fanbases uniting?
Posted by: HausofGhibli 20th May 2020, 08:52 AM
Is this week's #1 looking to do similar numbers to that too?
Posted by: Jordan Lee 20th May 2020, 01:57 PM
40,989 was the week one total for Stupid Love for a direct compare with that.
Arianas Stuck with U which is the current #4 sold 37,614 copies last week.
I’m expecting more for this tbh!
Posted by: LMLou 20th May 2020, 02:02 PM
DaBaby solo 45k in the UK for #1 last week but his numbers are up quite a lot in the midweeks, I'd expect to reach around 55k this week and maybe stabilise around there for ROM release week
Posted by: LMLou 20th May 2020, 02:06 PM
Any position higher than 5 would be a pretty big success for Gaga in the UK, I don't think she's even had her highest peaking single from an album not be the official lead single (apart from Poker Face tying with Just Dance)
Posted by: HausofGhibli 20th May 2020, 02:29 PM
Yeah I think #2 or somewhere from 2-5 now!
Posted by: Jordan Lee 20th May 2020, 03:51 PM
Ffs now Twitter is saying Post Malone is releasing on Friday.
I’ve not heard anything off him officially though and I haven’t from Drake regarding the Drake / Weeknd rumour.
The Weeknds release is supposedly a remix of In Your Eyes with Doja Cat.
Posted by: Slick 20th May 2020, 03:55 PM
I would be happy with Top 5 in both the UK and US. Top 3 would be AMAZING. I am expecting Top 5 too, so I hope I am not disappointed.
Posted by: SKOB 20th May 2020, 04:57 PM
This is confirmed but it's not a competition really.
Posted by: dan-G 20th May 2020, 06:29 PM
Post Malone may be a threat in the US but he's never had a song debut higher than #4 in the UK, Gaga could easily out-debut him if he's releasing given the mass hype and instant radio / presumably streaming playlist support.
Posted by: SKOB 20th May 2020, 07:39 PM
I don't think that Post Malone releases, he is on same label with Ariana.
Posted by: Nick Jonas 21st May 2020, 08:47 PM
I think this will have a big lead on iTunes for a week or so, Spotify maybe Top 10 for a few weeks, supported by the album release.
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