England's relationship with an independent Scotland

BuzzJack - Entertainment Discussion _ General Discussion _ News and Politics

Latest Site News

A chart double for Taylor Swift

Hozier gets a second week at number one

Hozier climbs to number one

25 Pages

1 2 3 > »

England's relationship with an independent Scotland

Display modes

Track this thread - Email this thread - Print this thread - Download this thread - Subscribe to this forum

Calum View member profile	1st February 2014, 06:12 PM Post #1
nabad Pronouns: he/him Joined: 13 February 2013 Posts: 28,374 User: 18,316	There is of course already a ball of hate that is often passed around between Scotland and England, and in a time like this when Scotland is making an important decision whether to or whether not to become an independent country, the hatred is heightened by English people who will slag Scotland off at any given opportunity, but just how else can it have a major impact? Just been reading a news story about a girl who goes to the school I went to (!) who was told to 'f*** off back to your own country' (born in England, but moved to Scotland when she was young), when the pupils were asked to ponder upon a national anthem for Scotland that would embrace Scottishness. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-25...use-school.html Is this just the beginning for yet more feuds between both Scottish and English citizens in the lead-up to the independence referendum, or can it be contained and controlled to ensure that whatever the decision is both countries can remain civilised and it does not infect youths and make its way into places of education, etc, or is there no way of stopping it?


LexC View member profile	1st February 2014, 06:15 PM Post #2
Attack Dog/Sass Queen Joined: 29 January 2008 Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342	That link is from the Mail. Discussion over.


Qassändra View member profile	1st February 2014, 06:18 PM Post #3
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	I've got better things to do than discuss a relationship that won't happen.


Brett-Butler View member profile	1st February 2014, 06:33 PM Post #4
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	QUOTE(Cassandra @ Feb 1 2014, 07:18 PM) I've got better things to do than discuss a relationship that won't happen. Sounds like my love life.


Danny View member profile	1st February 2014, 07:12 PM Post #5
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(Cassandra @ Feb 1 2014, 06:18 PM) I've got better things to do than discuss a relationship that won't happen. Why are you so sure?!? ** Tbh, I don't think many English people are really talking/thinking about Scottish independence all that much yet. That said, I do think if Scotland went independent BUT they stayed in the pound, I think that could cause a lot of resentment. Even I, as someone who thinks I might vote for independence if I was Scottish, think it's a bit cheeky for Alex Salmond et al to talk like Scotland has an automatic right to stay in the pound and that the rest of the UK shouldn't get a say in the decision of whether they stay in or not.


Sandro Raniere View member profile	1st February 2014, 08:04 PM Post #6
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 13 May 2013 Posts: 2,198 User: 18,849	Won't happen anyways, turkeys don't vote for christmas, Scotland has been sucking off the teat financially of England (London) for years, they won't vote to change things


Qassändra View member profile	1st February 2014, 08:43 PM Post #7
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Danny @ Feb 1 2014, 08:12 PM) Why are you so sure?!? What big thing is likely to happen between now and the referendum that would sway opinion from what has been a pretty solid 60-40 lead (at the most generous to the nats, 66-33 otherwise - and it'll take more than a rogue poll miles off all the others to convince me much has changed on that front) all the way in the last two years? It's not really the kind of thing where people change their mind suddenly, given it's a pretty final thing to declare independence - and I think claims of 'Labour austerity' being enough to swing things by about ten points don't really add up, given you'd expect that sort of thing to have an effect reflected just as much on British polls.


Qassändra View member profile	1st February 2014, 08:44 PM Post #8
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Sandro Raniere @ Feb 1 2014, 09:04 PM) Won't happen anyways, turkeys don't vote for christmas, Scotland has been sucking off the teat financially of England (London) for years, they won't vote to change things You do realise that oil in Scotland's waters was kind of the only way the tax cuts of the 80s were made at all affordable, right? And on average a Scottish citizen pays more tax than an English one.


Silas View member profile	1st February 2014, 09:23 PM Post #9
Queen of Soon Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 74,088 User: 3,474	I know you don't like facts Craig but it is FACT that, per person, Scotland contributes over £100 more than the rest of the UK in Tax income. And don't get me started on Oil money. It's been pissed away by the British Government on shitey tax cuts for the wealthy. We could have a wealth fund that makes Norway's look pathetic. Norway's is $400bn FFS! QUOTE(Cassandra @ Feb 1 2014, 08:43 PM) What big thing is likely to happen between now and the referendum that would sway opinion from what has been a pretty solid 60-40 lead (at the most generous to the nats, 66-33 otherwise - and it'll take more than a rogue poll miles off all the others to convince me much has changed on that front) all the way in the last two years? It's not really the kind of thing where people change their mind suddenly, given it's a pretty final thing to declare independence - and I think claims of 'Labour austerity' being enough to swing things by about ten points don't really add up, given you'd expect that sort of thing to have an effect reflected just as much on British polls. Actually that lead has been 40-33 for the past 5 years. The undecided vote is massive and at the moment all the movement is from No to Maybe with a slight trickle onto Yes. There is momentum in that movement, especially that we're still 8months away from the polling date. A bet against Alex Salmond is about as retarded as placing a wager on Scotland to suffer a drought.


Harve View member profile	1st February 2014, 10:13 PM Post #10
Cœur poids plume Joined: 3 November 2007 Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718	QUOTE(Silas @ Feb 1 2014, 09:23 PM) Actually that lead has been 40-33 for the past 5 years. The undecided vote is massive and at the moment all the movement is from No to Maybe with a slight trickle onto Yes. There is momentum in that movement, especially that we're still 8months away from the polling date. A bet against Alex Salmond is about as retarded as placing a wager on Scotland to suffer a drought. I wouldn't say so. Anyone not 100% sold on the idea of independence (the Don't Knows) are far more likely to opt for the least radical option, which would be voting No to maintain things as they are or simply not voting. A last-minute Yes surge would be likely to go down the same route as the 2010 Lib Dem surge.


Silas View member profile	1st February 2014, 10:23 PM Post #11
Queen of Soon Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 74,088 User: 3,474	I've lived in this country for too long to do anything as stupid as bet against Salmond. This may not be a Scottish Election but if anyone can win this referendum it's him. He is just too good a politician. With the No->Maybe momentum and the subsequent movement to Yes the momentum is actually in the SNP's favour. They have gone after the Maybe vote from the start and they are managing to get through to No voters. The No could still win it and the odds are in it's favour but if I can go from totally hating the man to voting Yes, anyone can.


Danny View member profile	1st February 2014, 10:36 PM Post #12
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(Harve @ Feb 1 2014, 10:13 PM) I wouldn't say so. Anyone not 100% sold on the idea of independence (the Don't Knows) are far more likely to opt for the least radical option, which would be voting No to maintain things as they are or simply not voting. A last-minute Yes surge would be likely to go down the same route as the 2010 Lib Dem surge. Hmm, I'm not totally convinced that's necessarily the case. People usually base that type of argument on the fact that the AV referendum ended up swinging heavily towards the status quo at the last minute, but I don't think that was because people were scared of change and just went for the least radical option, I think it was just the pro-AV side made a terrible case and didn't explain clearly why changing the voting system would be good (plus everyone wanted to give Nick Clegg a kicking). But I don't think you can take from that that every referendum will always go with the status quo.


Qassändra View member profile	1st February 2014, 10:50 PM Post #13
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	Why would somebody not entirely sold on the idea of independence go for something as final as declaring independence? I'd say if anything a referendum like this will tend even more towards the status quo than a mere reversible change to a voting system.


Harve View member profile	1st February 2014, 10:59 PM Post #14
Cœur poids plume Joined: 3 November 2007 Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718	QUOTE(Danny @ Feb 1 2014, 10:36 PM) Hmm, I'm not totally convinced that's necessarily the case. People usually base that type of argument on the fact that the AV referendum ended up swinging heavily towards the status quo at the last minute, but I don't think that was because people were scared of change and just went for the least radical option, I think it was just the pro-AV side made a terrible case and didn't explain clearly why changing the voting system would be good (plus everyone wanted to give Nick Clegg a kicking). But I don't think you can take from that that every referendum will always go with the status quo. Well I'd be pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be a close-run thing. The No campaign is pretty awful, it almost deserves to have a kick up the arse and be forced to put out a case of its own for a successful future.


Danny View member profile	1st February 2014, 11:08 PM Post #15
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(Cassandra @ Feb 1 2014, 10:50 PM) Why would somebody not entirely sold on the idea of independence go for something as final as declaring independence? I'd say if anything a referendum like this will tend even more towards the status quo than a mere reversible change to a voting system. Because maybe they're waiting to see if it's actually possible for them to get what they want if they stay in the UK? The two main things that can change between now and the referendum, are either the Tories looking more likely to win the next election, or Labour saying they'll be implementing Tory policies to an even greater extent than the last Labour government. Either would likely exaggerate the feeling among Scottish people that the UK as a whole is never going to elect a government that Scotland would be happy with. (Of course, whether an independent Scotland would actually get to implement different policies if they were staying in the pound is a different issue.) This post has been edited by Danny: 1st February 2014, 11:16 PM


Qassändra View member profile	1st February 2014, 11:25 PM Post #16
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	As I say every time someone points out a poll showing one, a poll showing a rise/fall of anything within three points either way is totally statistically meaningless. Because you're asking a (demographically representative) group of 1,000 people to try and deduce the opinions of x million people, the result will always fall ±3 points of the actual result because of sample error - therefore the fact it looks like it's consistently rising is utterly meaningless, as all those three polls tell us is that the actual state of affairs is 95% likely to be within three points of that. Hence, it could even be the case that support for independence has stayed at 27% or 28% for the last three months - or even fallen a bit from 28 to 27! Now, it may be the case that support for independence has risen slightly. I'd even say that's the likely scenario (given the White Paper's come out in that time, it'd be pretty disastrous for the Nats if it hadn't!). But you'd have no way of knowing that from a monthly poll showing a two point rise. EDIT: Oh, you'd already gotten rid of it


Qassändra View member profile	1st February 2014, 11:35 PM Post #17
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	Still, let's take that poll as a baseline. 29 in favour of independence. 43 in favour of the status quo. At that point, 28% have yet to decide, and only 7 out of those 28 have to plump with the status quo for the Nats to lose. Winning more than a 2:1 split of undecideds is a hell of a climb, by any standard. Language like 'the momentum is in Yes's favour' and 'No could still win it' really does obscure the issue that at no point ever has there been a majority in favour of independence. Expecting one to happen out of thin air now in the last seven months because, oh, I don't know, Alex Salmond/Labour 'austerity'/Tory government (all of which are issues which have had prominence far before now and have not led to majorities favouring independence or people suddenly changing their minds) is nothing short of wishful thinking. Yeah, the No campaign isn't a positive one. Yeah, Tory governments and the idea of Labour putting in spending cuts aren't great. It doesn't mean all of a sudden a third of Scots will suddenly by a 2:1 margin want to declare their English brothers and sisters foreigners.


Danny View member profile	6th February 2014, 09:47 PM Post #18
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	And this could be the "game-changing" thing: www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/labour-mps-plan-conference-boycott-amid-income-tax-row.23365395 I believe virtually everyone who currently answers "Don't know" to independence wants so-called "devo max" (which I guess is the Scottish Parliament getting even more powers). If Labour don't support devo max or give mixed messages about whether they'll support it, which is seeming likely, that could tip over more people to voting "Yes".


Soy Adrián View member profile	6th February 2014, 09:53 PM Post #19
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	Cameron was a moron not asking a Devo Max option on the ballot paper, clearly not wanting to give an inch and assuming that No would win without it. Labour could really steal a march by backing it and put extra pressure on the SNP if the referendum fails.


Danny View member profile	6th February 2014, 09:58 PM Post #20
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(¿ CATORCE ? @ Feb 6 2014, 09:53 PM) Cameron was a moron not asking a Devo Max option on the ballot paper, clearly not wanting to give an inch and assuming that No would win without it. Labour could really steal a march by backing it and put extra pressure on the SNP if the referendum fails. In fairness, I seem to remember Labour were also insisting on it not being on the ballot paper. I think it was some utterly moronic short-termist thinking that they didn't want to "give Alex Salmond a win" or something in the negotiations over the referendum. If independence happens as a result, they only have themselves to blame.