Eurovision Song Contest 2015 · Odds, A race between Sweden, Russia and Italy? |
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16th January 2015, 11:48 PM
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#1
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
It's of course incredibly early to start looking at odds, but we do start to see potential hype even at this early stage! The reason I'm opening this now as the first set of "proper" odds (not Betfair Exchange) have just been published by Betfred. As you'd probably predict the usually successful countries are at the top with one exception of Estonia: 10/1 - Estonia, Greece, Sweden, Azerbaijan 14/1 - Serbia, Armenia, Norway 16/1 - Denmark All the odds have remained the same since first published a couple of days ago except for Estonia who were at 16/1 and are now up with the predictable leaders. Elina & Stig really have managed to create a lot of hype - over 100,000 YouTube views in a week! Once the odds start moving properly then I'll post proper updates, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Finland (currently at 33/1) start to drop in price as I sense hype with Satin Circus. Also Czech Republic can be found at 25/1 surprisingly! |
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17th January 2015, 12:03 AM
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#2
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342 |
Just want to say this from the off that shortening odds only means that people are putting more money behind said entry winning rather than being organised by a super expert. Most people on here are generally fine in that regard but people on twitter/the Euroblogs really irritate me sometimes because they don't know how betting odds work.
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17th January 2015, 01:26 AM
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#3
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 |
It's also worth remembering that at this stage, all it literally takes is one or two medium bets to shift the odds. Latvia dropped from 100/1 to 66/1 instantly when I put on £30 after I first heard Saule riet.
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19th January 2015, 07:30 PM
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#4
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,043 User: 116 |
£30! Why on earth did you put that much trust in the Latvian voting public?
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19th January 2015, 07:32 PM
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#5
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 |
I managed to unwind it after, but given the hype around it (especially compared to bloody Cake To Bake...) while Latvia were at odds of about 100/1 it looked like an absolute *steal* of an each way.
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20th January 2015, 06:03 PM
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#6
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
I'll copy these over now from the 2014 thread so I don't forget about them, here are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum! I've added in artist/song names and eventual finishing positions for some extra fun! Always very interesting reading.
2014 01. 6/4 Armenia (Aram MP3 - Not Alone) 4th 02. 11/2 Sweden (Sanna Nielsen - Undo) 3rd 03. 12/1 Denmark (Basim - Cliché Love Song) 9th 04. 12/1 Norway (Carl Espen - Silent Storm) 8th 05. 18/1 Hungary (András Kállay-Saunders - Running) 5th 06. 20/1 United Kingdom (Molly - Children Of The Universe) 17th 07. 20/1 Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock) 6th 08. 20/1 Azerbaijan (Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire) 22nd 09. 25/1 Belgium (Axel Hirsoux - Mother) 14th (SF) 10. 25/1 Romania (Paula Seling & OVI - Miracle) 12th 11. 40/1 Russia (Tolmachevy Sisters - Shine) 7th 12. 66/1 Italy (Emma Marrone - La Mia Città) 21st 13. 66/1 Greece (Freaky Fortune feat. Risky Kidd - Rise Up) 20th 14. 66/1 Israel (Mei Finegold - Same Heart) 14th (SF) 15. 66/1 Ireland (Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat) 12th (SF) (Oddschecker) 2013 01. 6/4 Denmark (Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops) 1st 02. 8/1 Norway (Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love) 4th 03. 12/1 Ukraine (Zlata Ognevich - Gravity) 3rd 04. 16/1 Russia (Dina Garipova - What If) 5th 05. 16/1 Sweden (Robin Stjernberg - You) 14th 06. 19/1 The Netherlands (Anouk - Birds) 9th 07. 25/1 Germany (Cascada - Glorious) 21st 08. 25/1 Georgia (Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall) 15th 09. 25/1 Italy (Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale) 7th 10. 33/1 Azerbaijan (Farid Mammadov - Hold Me) 2nd 11. 40/1 San Marino (Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola)) 11th (SF) 12. 50/1 United Kingdom (Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me) 19th 13. 66/1 Ireland (Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives) 26th 14. 66/1 Belarus (Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh) 16th 15. 75/1 Greece (Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free) 6th (Oddschecker) 2012 01. 9/4 Sweden (Loreen - Euphoria) 1st 02. 8/1 Italy (Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina (Out Of Love)) 9th 03. 10/1 Russia (Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody) 2nd 04. 11/1 Serbia (Željko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar) 3rd 05. 14/1 Denmark (Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better) 23rd 06. 14/1 United Kingdom (Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free) 25th 07. 16/1 Ireland (Jedward - Waterline) 19th 08. 18/1 Spain (Pastora Soler - Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)) 10th 09. 20/1 Germany (Roman Lob - Standing Still) 8th 10. 20/1 Norway (Tooji - Stay) 26th 11. 22/1 Iceland (Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - Never Forget) 20th 12. 25/1 Greece (Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac) 17th 13. 28/1 Romania (Mandinga - Zaleilah) 12th 14. 28/1 Turkey (Can Bonomo - Love Me Back) 7th 15. 33/1 Cyprus (Ivi Adamou - La La Love) 16th (Sky Bet) 2011 01. 4/1 France (Amaury Vassili - Sognu) 15th
02. 13/2 Estonia (Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street) 24th 03. 7/1 United Kingdom (Blue - I Can) 11th 04. 8/1 Hungary (Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams?) 22nd 05. 10/1 Sweden (Eric Saade - Popular) 3rd 06. 10/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind) 6th 07. 12/1 Azerbaijan (Ell & Nikki - Running Scared) 1st 08. 12/1 Norway (Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba) 17th (SF) 09. 12/1 Germany (Lena - Taken By A Stranger) 10th 10. 20/1 Russia (Alexej Vorobjov - Get You) 16th 11. 20/1 Ireland (Jedward - Lipstick) 8th 12. 20/1 Denmark (A Friend In London - New Tomorrow) 5th 13. 33/1 Italy (Raphael Gualazzi - Madness Of Love) 2nd 14. 40/1 Romania (Hotel FM - Change) 17th 15. 40/1 Poland (Magdalena Tul - Jestem) 19th (SF) (Paddy Power) |
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20th January 2015, 06:03 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
2010
01. 5/2 Germany (Lena - Satellite) 1st 02. 5/2 Azerbaijan (Safura - Drip Drop) 5th 03. 8/1 Denmark (Chanée & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This) 4th 04. 8/1 Israel (Harel Skaat - Milim) 14th 05. 14/1 Armenia (Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone) 7th 06. 16/1 Croatia (Feminnem - Lako Je Sve) 13th (SF) 07. 20/1 Norway (Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours) 20th 08. 22/1 Sweden (Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life) 11th (SF) 09. 25/1 Ireland (Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You) 23rd 10. 28/1 Greece (Giorgos Alkaios and Friends - OPA) 8th (William Hill) 2009 01. 6/4 Norway (Alexander Rybak - Fairytale) 1st 02. 9/2 Greece (Sakis Rouvas - This Is Our Night) 7th 03. 8/1 Turkey (Hadise - Düm Tek Tek) 4th 04. 8/1 Montenegro (Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life) 11th (SF) 05. 10/1 Azerbaijan (AySel and Arash - Always) 3rd 06. 12/1 Sweden (Malena Ernman - La Voix) 21st 07. 14/1 Malta (Chiara - What If We?) 22nd 08. 18/1 United Kingdom (Jade Ewen - It's My Time) 5th 09. 25/1 Estonia (Urban Symphony - Rändajad) 6th 10. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Regina - Bistra Voda) 9th 11. 25/1 France (Patricia Kaas - Et S'il Fallait Le Faire) 8th 12. 25/1 Spain (Soraya - La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me)) 24th 13. 25/1 Russia (Anastasiya Prikhodko - Mamo) 11th 14. 33/1 Finland (Waldo's People - Lose Control) 25th 15. 33/1 Iceland (Yohanna - Is It True?) 2nd (Paddy Power) 2008 01. 7/2 Russia (Dima Bilan - Believe) 1st 02. 9/2 Serbia (Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić - Oro) 6th 03. 5/1 Ireland (Dustin The Turkey - Irelande Douze Pointe) 15th (SF) 04. 11/2 Armenia (Sirusho - Qele, Qele) 4th 05. 7/1 Ukraine (Ani Lorak - Shady Lady) 2nd 06. 9/1 Sweden (Charlotte Perrelli - Hero) 18th 07. 18/1 Bulgaria (Deep Zone and Balthazar - DJ, Take Me Away) 11th (SF) 08. 20/1 Greece (Kalomira - Secret Combination) 3rd 09. 20/1 Spain (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre - Baila El Chiki-Chiki) 16th 10. 22/1 France (Sébastian Tellier) 19th 11. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Laka - Pokušaj) 10th 12. 25/1 Latvia (Pirates Of The Sea - Wolves Of The Sea) 12th 13. 25/1 Turkey (Mor ve Ötesi - Deli) 7th 14. 25/1 Switzerland (Paolo Meneguzzi - Era Stupendo) 13th (SF) 15. 25/1 Romania (Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume) 20th (Paddy Power) 2007 01. 5/1 Switzerland (DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive) 20th (SF) 02. 7/1 Sweden (The Ark - The Worrying Kind) 18th 03. 8/1 Serbia (Marija Šerifović - Molitva) 1st 04. 8/1 Belarus (Koldun - Work Your Magic) 6th 05. 11/1 Ukraine (Verka Serduchka - Dancing Lasha Tumbai) 2nd 06. 11/1 Bulgaria (Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov - Water) 5th 07. 12/1 Russia (Serebro - Song #1) 3rd 08. 14/1 Greece (Sarbel - Yassou Maria) 7th 09. 16/1 Romania (Todomondo - Liubi, Liubi, I Love You) 13th 10. 16/1 Cyprus (Evridiki - Comme ci, Comme ça) 15th (SF) 11. 20/1 Slovenia (Alenka Gotar - Cvet Z Juga) 15th 12. 20/1 United Kingdom (Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)) 22nd 13. 20/1 Malta (Olivia Lewis - Vertigo) 25th (SF) 14. 25/1 Latvia (Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte) 16th 15. 25/1 Spain (D'NASH - I Love You Mi Vida) 20th (Paddy Power) It's crazy when you compare 2014 to the rest in that neither of the top 2 were in the top 15 just a month before the contest! Never realised Montenegro were so fancied in 2009 either. |
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20th January 2015, 08:43 PM
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#8
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,043 User: 116 |
DJ Bobo was robbed!
Those 2011 odds *.* Everyone was SO wrong! I still think Blue should have been top five at least though, as they were on the televote. For me it's still one of the most memorable songs from that year, Popular and Jedward () being by far the most memorable. |
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26th January 2015, 06:16 PM
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#9
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
Of course as we know any small bets make a huge difference at this point, but as I expected Finland's odds have been slashed a couple of times now - down to 10/1 and joint 2nd favourite behind Estonia who are now down to just 7/1! Presumably this is due to Satin Circus, but they are only 2nd favourites to win the Finnish selection according to Unibet, the favourites being Pertti Kurikan Nimipaivat.
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3rd February 2015, 10:20 PM
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#10
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
Estonia as low as 9/2 now, Finland down to 5/1 and Sweden down to 8/1. No change anywhere else except Switzerland are down to 20/1 suggesting they have a little bit more support than the other selected entries so far (but of course the market is very slow at the moment).
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11th February 2015, 10:14 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
Betfred now have Estonia and Australia as joint 9/2 favourites!
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11th February 2015, 10:32 PM
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#12
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🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,569 User: 11,746 |
Australia as the fave even without their entry or artist revealed.
Slay. |
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12th February 2015, 01:09 PM
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#13
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eat hot chip, be homosexual
Joined: 29 August 2008
Posts: 45,109 User: 6,946 |
To be fair, Estonia's hasn't been either. Why are they getting such short odds?
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12th February 2015, 02:47 PM
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#14
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 |
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12th February 2015, 04:50 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
The only similarity Elina & Stig have to The Common Linnets is the fact it's a mixed duo but apart from that they aren't that similar - 'Goodbye To Yesterday' reminds me more of Gotye's 'Somebody That I Used To Know' than it does of 'Calm After The Storm'. However yes they have got a lot of hype, they are nearly at one million YouTube views in just 6 weeks which I believe is unprecedented for an Eesti Laul entry! Although the Estonian jury aren't very reliable so I very much doubt they will win.
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6th March 2015, 09:06 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
More and more bookmakers are putting their odds up now so we are beginning to get a bit more of a clearer picture. Italy are still favourites at around the 2/1 mark but over the last few days Estonia have been shortening across the board and now down to around the 3/1 mark.
Finland who had moved up to 2nd have started to drop, out to 7/1 at a couple of places, but Sweden are picking up momentum who are between 5 and 10/1. Australia are around 12s and 14s now after their artist announcement. |
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11th March 2015, 02:38 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
Slovenia's odds are continuing to shorten quickly today, they are now comfortably fifth favourites to win!
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14th March 2015, 11:11 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 |
About time for our first complete odds update I think! As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker.
01 | 05/2 | Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore 02 | 04/1 | Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes 03 | 04/1 | Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday 04 | 10/1 | Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää 05 | 10/1 | Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You 06 | 16/1 | Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me 07 | 16/1 | Australia · Guy Sebastian - TBA 08 | 25/1 | Azerbaijan · TBA 09 | 25/1 | United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You 10 | 25/1 | Armenia · Genealogy - Don't Deny 11 | 33/1 | Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside 12 | 33/1 | Spain · Edurne - Amanecer 13 | 33/1 | Greece · Maria-Eleni Kyriakou - One Last Breath 14 | 40/1 | Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices 15 | 50/1 | Latvia · Aminata - Love Injected 16 | 50/1 | Austria · The Makemakes - I Am Yours 17 | 50/1 | Switzerland · Mélanie René - Time To Shine 18 | 50/1 | Malta · Amber - Warrior 19 | 50/1 | Cyprus · John Karayiannis - One Thing I Should Have Done 20 | 50/1 | Romania · Voltaj - De La Capăt Above 50/1... 066/1 | Iceland · France · Hungary · Germany · The Netherlands · Serbia · Ireland 080/1 | Lithuania 100/1 | Poland · Montenegro · Israel · Belarus · Denmark · San Marino · Czech Republic · F.Y.R. Macedonia · Moldova · Portugal · Georgia |
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14th March 2015, 11:13 PM
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#19
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I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955 |
Iceland and Georgia are fantastic each way bets there!
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16th March 2015, 01:23 PM
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#20
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,043 User: 116 |
Sweden really need to move in front, in what world is Italy going to win exactly?
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