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> Coronavirus Discussion, ..into 2021 - vaccination rollout etc.
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Jacob 😮
post Yesterday, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 6 2021, 09:49 AM) *
Although to be fair we hadn't got 40% of the population vaccinated back in early September.

Don't get me wrong, I think the strategy isn't great - the time in lockdowns could have been spent finding additional buildings/space for schools to use and to bring back some teaching assistants to help reduce class sizes and make social distancing much easier, as well as to improve community test, trace and isolate procedures.

We'll see what happens anyway - 5 weeks before the next end-of-lockdown phase, hopefully we see positive data.
Yes but most of those vaccinated aren't being put at risk, they're just isolating at home still. Don't get me wrong, the reduction in cases is positive and makes me feel a bit better but the fact is we've just become so desensitised that 6000 new cases a day seems good apparently. If we'd waited until after Easter for schools so many more people would be vaccinated and we'd be far closer to 0, it's such a shame this opportunity is being squandered.
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J00prstar
post 22 hours ago
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So done with lockdown today. How is it where you are? Here everything apart from food shops now closes at 4pm! It's getting ridiculous.
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T Boy
post 22 hours ago
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How are you defining ‘everything’ ? Because where I am it’s literally only food shops open.

Though Drakeford will apparently go forward with reopening non essential shops and hairdressers on the 15th. I guess I’d be excited if I had hair.
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Quarantilas
post 21 hours ago
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I literally drove across state lines to go to a garden centre - worth it for the discovery that theres a strip of the A111 on the way into Berlin that is de-restricted 🥰 - because f*** all is open in Berlin. Think 75% of the cars in Oranienburg today had Berlin plates 🤣
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T Boy
post 19 hours ago
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I had another chat with my mum today and I’ve resigned myself to the fact she won’t be getting the vaccine....yet. She has reasons , not that I agree with them, but she’s told me she would rather wait to get it in the Autumn when she feels it will be more effective. So I’m going to leave them to it but she was very supportive of me today. She’s encouraged me to contact my gp as I technically fall into group 6 for the vaccine so fingers crossed I may hear something soon.
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J00prstar
post 19 hours ago
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Mar 6 2021, 05:52 PM) *
How are you defining ‘everything’ ? Because where I am it’s literally only food shops open.

Though Drakeford will apparently go forward with reopening non essential shops and hairdressers on the 15th. I guess I’d be excited if I had hair.


You don't even have cafe takeaway?
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Smint
post 19 hours ago
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Dp

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Smint
post 19 hours ago
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In England we have takeaway up to 10pm. Just had an Honest Burger dance.gif
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T Boy
post 19 hours ago
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QUOTE(J00prstar @ Mar 6 2021, 08:38 PM) *
You don't even have cafe takeaway?


We have one cafe in my village but I rarely use it. They wouldn’t open much past 4 even normally anyway. We have pub take away too but they tend to be deliveries.
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TheSnake
post 19 hours ago
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QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Mar 6 2021, 06:33 PM) *
I literally drove across state lines to go to a garden centre - worth it for the discovery that theres a strip of the A111 on the way into Berlin that is de-restricted �� - because f*** all is open in Berlin. Think 75% of the cars in Oranienburg today had Berlin plates ��


Germany is a bit like the US then. I expect in the US loads of people drove from the blue states to the red states that don't generally lock down as much to access services.

QUOTE
I had another chat with my mum today and I’ve resigned myself to the fact she won’t be getting the vaccine....yet. She has reasons , not that I agree with them, but she’s told me she would rather wait to get it in the Autumn when she feels it will be more effective.


I can see why, although I don't agree with declining the current vaccine. Realistically, the current vaccine is likely only a short term control (a few months maybe) which will probably be largely ineffective by later in the summer when the virus will probably have mutated beyond it (especially considering the government hasn't really been effective in stopping new variants entering the UK via foreign travel), and hopefully we will get an update to the vaccine probably after another period of lockdown in late summer/early autumn. But a short term control provided by this current vaccine is better than nothing, it allows a summer with more freedom and where the economy is reopened. So as many people as possible taking the current vaccine is still very important to allow us to have a better summer.


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T Boy
post 18 hours ago
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QUOTE(TheSnake @ Mar 6 2021, 08:59 PM) *
Germany is a bit like the US then. I expect in the US loads of people drove from the blue states to the red states that don't generally lock down as much to access services.
I can see why, although I don't agree with declining the current vaccine. Realistically, the current vaccine is likely only a short term control (a few months maybe) which will probably be largely ineffective by later in the summer when the virus will probably have mutated beyond it (especially considering the government hasn't really been effective in stopping new variants entering the UK via foreign travel), and hopefully we will get an update to the vaccine probably after another period of lockdown in late summer/early autumn. But a short term control provided by this current vaccine is better than nothing, it allows a summer with more freedom and where the economy is reopened. So as many people as possible taking the current vaccine is still very important to allow us to have a better summer.


You see, my mum would rather wait until Autumn because she believes the virus to be seasonal and she thinks she will need to protection more at that time of year. I don’t necessarily agree with her but I’m not falling out with her over this, I have enough on my plate and I don’t have the energy. Knowing that she will get vaccinated at some point is enough for me for now. I’ve told her she’ll still face restrictions and she’s ok with that.

You keep going on about the virus mutating and making the vaccine ineffective and yet at present it doesn’t look like this is the case. It seems very pessimistic and going by your logic perhaps we shouldn’t be getting to vaccine at all because it won’t offer us protection down the line. Surely the vaccines are not done and dusted already and they will still be being worked on in the eventualities of future variants.
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TheSnake
post 18 hours ago
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Mar 6 2021, 09:27 PM) *
You keep going on about the virus mutating and making the vaccine ineffective and yet at present it doesn’t look like this is the case. It seems very pessimistic and going by your logic perhaps we shouldn’t be getting to vaccine at all because it won’t offer us protection down the line. Surely the vaccines are not done and dusted already and they will still be being worked on in the eventualities of future variants.


I did say that the current vaccine was highly worthwhile to take as it almost certainly offers us protection for the next few months and I will be getting it myself but it doesn't mean like much of the media is suggesting that a return to complete normality in the summer is a good idea. Obviously the risk of cases and hospitalizations rising with new variants by the end of the summer and us having to go back into lockdown in the autumn while we wait for the new vaccine to be rolled out would be less if everyone was still largely social distancing in the summer albeit with the economy largely reopened like last summer but that's probably not going to happen as much of the media has hyped everyone up for 'a complete return to normality' in the summer. The return of foreign holidays especially which most of the newspapers have hyped up bring with it a risk of importing new variants.

I suppose though the recent high vaccine uptake has been on the back of the anticipation of a 'complete return to normality' in the summer including foreign holidays and to deny people that after most people have had the vaccine would undermine vaccine uptake in the autumn when the booster comes around. So it is is a very difficult situation to deal with. Of course if there is spike in Covid hospitalisations and deaths in late summer/early autumn as a result of all the summer festivities and freedom that will also probably undermine confidence in the vaccine in the autumn too. sad.gif


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Rooney
post 17 hours ago
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QUOTE(TheSnake @ Mar 6 2021, 09:39 PM) *
I did say that the current vaccine was highly worthwhile to take as it almost certainly offers us protection for the next few months and I will be getting it myself but it doesn't mean like much of the media is suggesting that a return to complete normality in the summer is a good idea. Obviously the risk of cases and hospitalizations rising with new variants by the end of the summer and us having to go back into lockdown in the autumn while we wait for the new vaccine to be rolled out would be less if everyone was still largely social distancing in the summer albeit with the economy largely reopened like last summer but that's probably not going to happen as much of the media has hyped everyone up for 'a complete return to normality' in the summer. The return of foreign holidays especially which most of the newspapers have hyped up bring with it a risk of importing new variants.

I suppose though the recent high vaccine uptake has been on the back of the anticipation of a 'complete return to normality' in the summer including foreign holidays and to deny people that after most people have had the vaccine would undermine vaccine uptake in the autumn when the booster comes around. So it is is a very difficult situation to deal with. Of course if there is spike in Covid hospitalisations and deaths in late summer/early autumn as a result of all the summer festivities and freedom that will also probably undermine confidence in the vaccine in the autumn too. sad.gif


People are going to need a vaccine to be able to leave the country or possibly even attend a football match, so you're going to see high levels of uptake. The stuff around the new variants is concerning, but there's no point worrying about it, they can tweak the vaccine and I'm sure I've read some pharma companies are not even tweaking the vaccine right now for production as it is still good against the other variants. The likelihood is people will need a booster shot in the Autumn. Covid isn't going away and like the flu we're going to have to learn to live with it and carry an acceptable risk every year. I genuinely don't think we will be in another lockdown again after this one.

The plan is sensible enough, it's given businesses timeframes to aim to which is positive. Of course the major problem is if people take it as fact that we will open up on those dates, but that's a while away yet. Problem is everyone is just itching to get back to normal now. I'm actually amazed the infection numbers are as low as they are tbh.
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J00prstar
post 17 hours ago
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Mar 6 2021, 08:48 PM) *
We have one cafe in my village but I rarely use it. They wouldn’t open much past 4 even normally anyway. We have pub take away too but they tend to be deliveries.


Oh well. It kinda makes sense that only supermarkets are open if that's all there is :')
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Suedehead2
post 17 hours ago
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Mar 6 2021, 09:27 PM) *
You see, my mum would rather wait until Autumn because she believes the virus to be seasonal and she thinks she will need to protection more at that time of year. I don’t necessarily agree with her but I’m not falling out with her over this, I have enough on my plate and I don’t have the energy. Knowing that she will get vaccinated at some point is enough for me for now. I’ve told her she’ll still face restrictions and she’s ok with that.

You keep going on about the virus mutating and making the vaccine ineffective and yet at present it doesn’t look like this is the case. It seems very pessimistic and going by your logic perhaps we shouldn’t be getting to vaccine at all because it won’t offer us protection down the line. Surely the vaccines are not done and dusted already and they will still be being worked on in the eventualities of future variants.

People who know far more about these things than I do seem to be confident that the vaccines can be tweaked to cope with new mutations. The bigger issue is the matter of how long the protection given by the vaccine will last. At present, for obvious reasons, nobody really knows.

A lot of people seem to be acting as if the vaccine gives protection for life. Perhaps it does. If so, that would be wonderful. However, it seems to me that the likelihood is that it doesn't. That means that we will all need to be vaccinated again at some point. We will probably only need one jab rather than two, but it will still be a huge exercise, particularly as a lot of the places currently being used will be unavailable.
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Quarantilas
post 16 hours ago
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QUOTE(TheSnake @ Mar 6 2021, 09:59 PM) *
Germany is a bit like the US then. I expect in the US loads of people drove from the blue states to the red states that don't generally lock down as much to access services.

The German federal structure is modelled off the US, so individual states hold a lot of power and each are having fractional differences. But it’s not so much on political grounds as the SPD lead the coalition govs in both Berlin and Brandenburg and the Greens are part of the coalition in both states too. (Die Linke being the third party in Berlin and CDU in Brandenburg)


I’m not sure there is much cross-state traffic either in the US or DE except for where you have an interlinked population. The same as in the UK. Berlin is surrounded by Brandenburg and a big chunk of Brandenburgs population, including the state capital Potsdam, are basically just “Greater Berlin” as the towns are well integrated with Berlin. Like I went to Oranienburg which is the end of the S1 on the Berlin S-Bahn so not really like if I was going from a blue to a red state in the us.
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TheSnake
post 16 hours ago
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Mar 6 2021, 10:12 PM) *
People are going to need a vaccine to be able to leave the country or possibly even attend a football match, so you're going to see high levels of uptake. The stuff around the new variants is concerning, but there's no point worrying about it, they can tweak the vaccine and I'm sure I've read some pharma companies are not even tweaking the vaccine right now for production as it is still good against the other variants. The likelihood is people will need a booster shot in the Autumn. Covid isn't going away and like the flu we're going to have to learn to live with it and carry an acceptable risk every year. I genuinely don't think we will be in another lockdown again after this one.

The plan is sensible enough, it's given businesses timeframes to aim to which is positive. Of course the major problem is if people take it as fact that we will open up on those dates, but that's a while away yet. Problem is everyone is just itching to get back to normal now. I'm actually amazed the infection numbers are as low as they are tbh.


Yeah what has me worried is these new variants seem to be happening worryingly quickly and unfortunately not making the virus less dangerous to health along with more easily spread like some scientists expected to see happening with virus mutations. Hopefully with mass vaccination, the mutation pace will slow down though.

'Learning to live with it' doesn't sound good when the chance of risking the health of your parents through going to a social gathering is still there as it may be in the summer. You compare it to living with flu but Covid having a significantly higher mortality rate has a higher range of at risk groups of people than flu does and can seriously affect or kill more otherwise relatively healthy people.

The football matches that you mention are at least are outside so the risk of spread is less there. Other mass gatherings inside and especially foreign travel to places where maybe testing for new variants is less than the UK do is more risky.


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steve201
post 14 hours ago
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QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Mar 6 2021, 11:25 PM) *
The German federal structure is modelled off the US, so individual states hold a lot of power and each are having fractional differences. But it’s not so much on political grounds as the SPD lead the coalition govs in both Berlin and Brandenburg and the Greens are part of the coalition in both states too. (Die Linke being the third party in Berlin and CDU in Brandenburg)
I’m not sure there is much cross-state traffic either in the US or DE except for where you have an interlinked population. The same as in the UK. Berlin is surrounded by Brandenburg and a big chunk of Brandenburgs population, including the state capital Potsdam, are basically just “Greater Berlin” as the towns are well integrated with Berlin. Like I went to Oranienburg which is the end of the S1 on the Berlin S-Bahn so not really like if I was going from a blue to a red state in the us.


Makes sense considering the allies dictated the government structure post war as they couldn’t trust them to sort themselves.
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T Boy
post 5 hours ago
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QUOTE(TheSnake @ Mar 6 2021, 11:43 PM) *
Yeah what has me worried is these new variants seem to be happening worryingly quickly and unfortunately not making the virus less dangerous to health along with more easily spread like some scientists expected to see happening with virus mutations. Hopefully with mass vaccination, the mutation pace will slow down though.

'Learning to live with it' doesn't sound good when the chance of risking the health of your parents through going to a social gathering is still there as it may be in the summer. You compare it to living with flu but Covid having a significantly higher mortality rate has a higher range of at risk groups of people than flu does and can seriously affect or kill more otherwise relatively healthy people.

The football matches that you mention are at least are outside so the risk of spread is less there. Other mass gatherings inside and especially foreign travel to places where maybe testing for new variants is less than the UK do is more risky.


At some point we are going to have to get on with our lives though and asses the risk for ourselves. That’s why having the vaccine, even should we require top ups, is such a good thing. You obviously live with your parents and aren’t required to leave the house for work so it makes sense for you to stay inside indefinitely. But some of us aren’t in that situation, I will be mixing indoors with over 100 people a day in the next few weeks because I won’t be allowed to world from home and I live alone which leads me to having to make decisions on whether I can see my family. I am more than happy to live with the restrictions for as long as we have them but I can’t wait to return to some form of normality. It just doesn’t suit everyone to be holed up in the house for the rest of our lives.
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Quarantilas
post 5 hours ago
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Look the reality is snake that variants require a huge incidence rate in order to occur. The better we hold onto lockdown now as the vaccine roll out goes ahead, and the longer we keep control of the numbers, the probability of a new variant dramatically decreases.

The second wave variants have come from places with weak ineffective governments that have allowed the virus to run rampant. You had the Spanish strain that wasn’t more infectious but carried a mutation taking over the continent in Aug and causing wave 2 for the EU because no one could resist their all inclusive week on the costa del scum. Now you’ve got variants from England, Brazil and South Africa where the virus has been running rampant unchecked and god only knows how many variants of concern are in the US right now. I’d personally be more concerned about Czechia If it wasn’t the English strain behind their case rises and the fact the country is so small population wise that at their current rate of infections they should hit natural heard immunity before we have the chance to get a Czech variant.

Control the virus by vaccine and quarantining folk from anywhere with a high incidence or lax policies and we will prevent a mutation reaching us that escapes the vaccine. It’s quite simple really and the experts have been saying it for months
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