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| Christmas #1 2015 early predictions |
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  Dec 12 2015, 01:53 PM
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#1
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,506 User: 11,746 
              
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This week's chart isn't too exciting but next week we have the Christmas Chart Battle.
I've included the artists that are getting good odds in the poll, but I've also left an 'other' option. Current odds: 10/11 X Factor Winner 5/1 NHS Choir 7/1 Justin Bieber 10/1 John Williams (Star Wars Theme) 12/1 Eagles of Death Metal 12/1 Grace 14/1 Adele 25/1 Her Majesty The Queen (A Tribute) 25/1 Military Wives 33/1 Bob Dylan 33/1 Kylie Minogue feat. James Corden 33/1 Robin Thicke feat. Nicki Minaj 33/1 Scouting For Girls 50/1 Cilla Black 50/1 Crowded House I expect it'll be any easy victory for X Factor Winner this year unless they're only popular on a Sam Bailey level (i.e. if Ché Chesterman wins) in which case Justin Bieber could put up a strong fight helped by his massive streaming. It would be the eighth time an X Factor winner has the Christmas #1, and the third consecutively following 'Something I Need' and 'Skyscraper'. NHS Choir I expect will go top 40 but I presume their fans won't be streaming this much so that will hit it hard. Likewise with the John Williams campaign which will probably miss the top 40 altogether. I don't expect EODM will do anything either, their last campaign missed the official top 50 despite being a top 20 sales hit. |
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Dec 12 2015, 01:55 PM
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#2
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,496 User: 20,053
  
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Probably X Factor winner because its 2nd week streams will be greater so won't be at as much of a disadvantage to Bieber.
Also why are there even odds for Robin Thicke & Scouting For Girls?  Not even 33 billion/1 odds would make me risk a quid on.
This post has been edited by Doboggan: Dec 12 2015, 01:56 PM |
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Dec 12 2015, 03:10 PM
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#3
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 20 November 2014
Posts: 12,623 User: 21,386
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Let's not forget that the winners single doesn't get streamed a lot. If they're on the same level as Sam Bailey, they definitely won't get it. Last X Factor winner who spent multiple weeks at the top was James Arthur three years ago
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Dec 12 2015, 03:15 PM
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#4
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,531 User: 10,030
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I can't realy see the X-factor winner getting it. It'll be their second week and I think first week sales will be ~150k (only has 4 and a bit days of sales) and then second week ~100k. I think Justin will be able to do 100k+ that week too and get the Christmas #1. Although I hope it's Adele that gets the Christmas #1. Would be great if she could get the #1 song and album Christmas week. Perhaps they can reduce the song to 59p?
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Dec 12 2015, 04:38 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 March 2011
Posts: 5,262 User: 13,126
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I'd quite like to see the X-Factor winner claim multiple weeks at #1, but only if it's Louisa (and the cover actually sounds half decent). It'd be a real testament to Bieber's domination in 2015 though if he could claw back the number-one in time for Christmas.
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Dec 12 2015, 04:54 PM
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#6
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 9 May 2009
Posts: 3,615 User: 8,809
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Louisa will easily claim the Xmas number 1 if she wins tomorrow.
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Dec 12 2015, 05:11 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 20 November 2014
Posts: 12,623 User: 21,386
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QUOTE(zenon @ Dec 12 2015, 04:54 PM)  Louisa will easily claim the Xmas number 1 if she wins tomorrow. If the chart day didn't move to Friday, XF would get Xmas #1. The winner has to hang on for another week for that to happen. James Arthur was the last winner to spend multiple weeks at the top and with the winners song hardly being streamed, I don't think so |
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Dec 12 2015, 06:16 PM
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#8
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 I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,023 User: 8,300
            
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I'm putting an imaginary fiver on Bieber getting it. Surprised his odds are as long as that.
(That said, it probably will be Reggie N Bollie). |
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Dec 12 2015, 07:34 PM
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#9
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3:23
Joined: 18 January 2008
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it's hard to look beyond the x factor winner's single, although if for whatever reason it under performs that could potentially open the door for bieber ~ either way it's shaping up to be yet another uninspiring festive chart topper~
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Dec 12 2015, 07:38 PM
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#10
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 The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,096 User: 9,232
   
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If Louisa wins, then I think she'll get it as they'll be picking up a few more streams the second week than the first, Love Yourself will obviously be really close behind and overtake pretty swiftly afterwards though.
With streaming growing so much, I do wonder if the Christmas number 1 race will ever be exciting again, rapidly becoming just another week going by such little competition out that week  These Christmas number 1 campaigns just aren't gonna work in the era of streaming, even just top 40 looks a challenge now. Can see the gradually dying out unless they get with the times a bit~ This post has been edited by Cheznuts: Dec 12 2015, 07:40 PM |
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Dec 12 2015, 07:56 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 November 2015
Posts: 4,439 User: 22,687
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Streaming huge maybe a Christmas song Mariah perhaps na jk
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Dec 12 2015, 08:17 PM
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#12
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
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Could be the closest Xmas chart since Rage vs. Joe.
I could imagine the X Factor winner clearing around 90-100k on the second week and Love Yourself will probably be level pegging. |
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Dec 12 2015, 08:28 PM
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#13
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,114 User: 5,138
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Think the NHS Choir could take off!
The Couteeners Christmas song - Winter Wonderland is a really good track, people should give it a listen! This post has been edited by Christmaseve201: Dec 12 2015, 08:29 PM |
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Dec 12 2015, 08:30 PM
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#14
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,114 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Doboggan @ Dec 12 2015, 01:55 PM) Probably X Factor winner because its 2nd week streams will be greater so won't be at as much of a disadvantage to Bieber. Also why are there even odds for Robin Thicke & Scouting For Girls? Not even 33 billion/1 odds would make me risk a quid on.They don't have a chance but S outing for Girls have a Xmas single out - Christmas in the Air (Tonight)! |
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Dec 13 2015, 01:19 AM
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#15
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 25 March 2007
Posts: 21,270 User: 3,155
 
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Never underestimate the power of Adele even with a near million selling former #1 - XFactor is on a major slump, The other contenders for #1 wouldn't generate enough streams aside from Bieber and we have seen time and time again Adele achieve the impossible, I don't think she will make it but nothing would surprise me with her especially if she pulls off an epic performance.
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Dec 14 2015, 02:15 AM
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#16
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 April 2015
Posts: 7,816 User: 21,725
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Dec 14 2015, 10:28 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 January 2014
Posts: 13,439 User: 20,515
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Got to be Bieber no?
Just wait until school kids are off school and streaming all day all night next week....... |
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Jan 10 2016, 07:41 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 April 2015
Posts: 7,816 User: 21,725
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Shocking that only 2 people voted for NHS Choir.
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Jan 10 2016, 08:46 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 November 2015
Posts: 4,439 User: 22,687
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QUOTE(Hazza Chapman @ Jan 10 2016, 07:41 PM) Shocking that only 2 people voted for NHS Choir. Guess people have voted just now says 5
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Jan 10 2016, 09:02 PM
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#20
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BuzzJack Idol
Joined: 8 December 2010
Posts: 50,917 User: 12,472
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Before anyone else votes, this is the final result:
X Factor Winner | 27 | 36.00% Adele | 9 | 12.00% Justin Bieber | 26 | 34.67% NHS Choir | 5 | 6.67% Grace | 2 | 2.67% John Williams (Star Wars Theme) | 2 | 2.67% Eagles Of Death Metal | 1 | 1.33% Other | 3 | 4.00% |
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