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 General Election 2019 "The Poll" |
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 Oct 29 2019, 11:01 PM
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#21
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 Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718 
     
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My seat is a bellwether seat and voted for Blair's Labour three times, even though the Tories have built up a pretty big majority this decade.
So even though it could swing in the future, my thinking is that if the Tories lose this one, then they've also lost many, many others, in which case they'll be out of government regardless of what happens in Staffordshire Moorlands. So I'll vote for the best candidate rather than tactically here. That could cost Labour a seat, but it doesn't matter as much as it would in places that already have a Labour MP or are very marginal (the two Reading seats! The two Northamptons!). |
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Oct 29 2019, 11:13 PM
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#22
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 I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,037 User: 8,300
                
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^ is Reading West really 'very' marginal? We were Labour during the Blair years as well but the Tories won by over 10 percentage points in 2010 and 2015 and still by over 5 percentage points even after the Labour surge in 2017. I'd like to have hope it can swing again but I don't know if I can see it.
(I don't really have that good of an idea of how close seats need to be to be classed as marginal) Mind, it looks like Reading East was even more convincingly won by Tories in 2010/2015 and that did go Labour in 2017. |
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Oct 29 2019, 11:25 PM
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#23
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Bréxit @ Oct 30 2019, 12:13 AM)  ^ is Reading West really 'very' marginal? We were Labour during the Blair years as well but the Tories won by over 10 percentage points in 2010 and 2015 and still by over 5 percentage points even after the Labour surge in 2017. I'd like to have hope it can swing again but I don't know if I can see it. (I don't really have that good of an idea of how close seats need to be to be classed as marginal) Mind, it looks like Reading East was even more dominated by Tories in 2010/2015 and that did go Labour in 2017. Reading West has been Tory for the last 9 years but it's trending more Labour than most places in the country. Labour got more votes there in 2017 than they did in Blair's 1997 landslide. I can only guess from the last decade's results that Reading East is the younger/better educated/more remain voting part of the city but Reading West still looks fairly fertile ground for Labour. More likely than winning Mansfield back or holding onto Stoke anyway. Having said that, as polling stands we're going to see much bigger swings than 10 or 5 and they're going to vary according to region and demographic as a big realignment is happening for the Tories. It's looking super volatile and very few seats are truly safe. |
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Oct 29 2019, 11:48 PM
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#24
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929       
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Torn. Still technically a Lib Dem member (as if that means anything as an expat) but I've drifted a bit leftward recently and the main thing that I'm holding on to with them is their anti-Brexit stance. Could very possibly vote Labour particularly as my constituency saw a Labour surge last time and my Tory MP has just announced she's standing down.
My constituency (where my proxy vote will be, god just in time though, my parents are planning to move after Christmas), used to be Lib Dem as well, trending well into Labour territory these days though. Truro & Falmouth could be bringing Labour into Cornwall again, Falmouth in particular has a lot of Labour students. |
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Oct 30 2019, 02:23 AM
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#25
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 there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,131 User: 22,895 
   
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I'm intrigued as to who the third shy Tory is!
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Oct 30 2019, 06:01 AM
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#26
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(sm1ffj @ Oct 29 2019, 09:06 PM) Which party will you vote for in Election on 12th December. Choose 1 option only Not much choice but to choose only one, the way the poll was set up.  QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Oct 29 2019, 09:36 PM) SNP for me. My seat is held by literally 3 votes so it’s probably going to fall to the LibDems but voting SNP regardless as every damn vote counts I envy you that you are in a seat where your vote can really make a difference - totally safe Tory here.  The unusual thing is, while I live in Cheltenham (which is a marginal seat), my ward falls into Tewkesbury (safe Tory) for GE purposes. If I lived *literally* on the other side of the road though, I would be counted as Cheltenham.  QUOTE(Peentergeist @ Oct 29 2019, 09:40 PM) A quiet vote for Tory. I wonder who that could be ho hmm. What a mystery! Keeping up your 100% record of being wrong about me then - I chose Brexit, because I just cannot bring myself to vote Tory. 
This post has been edited by vidcapper: Oct 30 2019, 06:01 AM |
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Oct 30 2019, 06:11 AM
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#27
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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How do you see the polls changing during the campaign?
IMO the Tory lead will close, but not as much as last time. Labour will pick up a bit, the LD's will remain static or fall slightly, Brexit will be squeezed in favour of the Tories, and there will be little change for the Others. My initial prediction (subject to later revision)... Con 36%, Lab 32%, LD 18%, Br 8%, Oth 6% This post has been edited by vidcapper: Oct 30 2019, 06:47 AM |
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Oct 30 2019, 08:32 AM
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#28
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Here in East Ham, London, it's so red you could put a donkey up with a red rosette and Labour would win. Stephen Timms is our MP. He was stabbed a few years go so seems to have a private big burly bodyguard with him now.
This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Oct 30 2019, 08:32 AM |
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Oct 30 2019, 09:17 AM
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#29
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,653 User: 3,272
 
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QUOTE(Bréxit @ Oct 29 2019, 11:13 PM) ^ is Reading West really 'very' marginal? We were Labour during the Blair years as well but the Tories won by over 10 percentage points in 2010 and 2015 and still by over 5 percentage points even after the Labour surge in 2017. I'd like to have hope it can swing again but I don't know if I can see it. (I don't really have that good of an idea of how close seats need to be to be classed as marginal) Mind, it looks like Reading East was even more convincingly won by Tories in 2010/2015 and that did go Labour in 2017. Traditionally, a seat has been considered marginal if the majority is under 10% (i.e. vulnerable to a 5% swing). However, the last few elections have seen many swings in individual seats well in excess of 5% so that definition is somewhat dated. |
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Oct 30 2019, 11:20 AM
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#30
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Oct 30 2019, 08:32 AM) Here in East Ham, London, it's so red you could put a donkey up with a red rosette and Labour would win. Alas, under FPTP about 5/6ths of seats never change hands. |
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Oct 30 2019, 02:40 PM
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#31
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-76...l-election.html
The 10 crunch battleground seats which could decide the 2019 December general election as Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage battle it out for the right to determine the UK's Brexit fate MPs voted in favour of holding UK's first December general election since 1923. It will be held on December 12 Winner of the pre-Christmas snap poll is expected to finally decide Britain's Brexit fate If Boris Johnson and the Tories win a majority at the pre-Christmas poll then he will deliver his Brexit deal If Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party win a majority then he will facilitate a second referendum These are 10 of the key battleground seats which are likely to determine the UK's Brexit fate Cheltenham is named as #2 on the list! What the Mail doesn't know though, is that several of the most LD parts of the town are actually not in the Cheltenham parliamentary constituency. That's not so say they *won't* win it, but I suspect it'll be a harder fight than they suggest. Also, the LD council is well known for their financial f*ck-ups, so that could count against them... This post has been edited by vidcapper: Oct 30 2019, 02:42 PM |
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Oct 30 2019, 07:31 PM
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#32
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,541 User: 10,030
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I'll be voting for the Lib Dems. My seat is a Labour stronghold, although the Lib Dems came fairly close once. I'm hoping they could potentially see a big surge and take the seat. The more seats the LDs have the better. Hopefully the LDs will be able to take a fair few seats from the Conservatives.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservatives start dropping in the next set of polls due to Boris failing his 31st deadline and the re-admission of a number of rebel Tories, with the Brexit Party taking up their lost vote share. I also believe that now the Brexit deal can get properly analysed and scruitinised, the public will be made more aware of the details. Particularly in regards to workers rights/de-regulation. I also hope the public will be made aware of the long trade talks that will occur if the WAB gets through and the allowing US companies access to the NHS in order the get a trade deal done with the US. There're so many negatives that Labour/LDs could mention in regards to Brexit, I just hope they come up with good short slogans/phrases to highlight them. (Bollocks to Brexit that the LDs usedin the EU elections for example). I would love to see a Labour/LD/SNP/Green colatition of sorts or even a big Labour surge again. This election is going to be very tiring though by the end of it. I do hope the SNP snatch up every Tory seat in Scotland. This post has been edited by Envoirment: Oct 30 2019, 07:37 PM |
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Oct 30 2019, 08:09 PM
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#33
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Fun fact - the last time there was a General Election in December, back in 1923, Labour won the most seats, and governed in a minority government with support from the Liberals. I imagine such a scenario in 2019 might go down well with some people on this board.
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Oct 30 2019, 08:24 PM
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#34
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,653 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Oct 30 2019, 08:09 PM) Fun fact - the last time there was a General Election in December, back in 1923, Labour won the most seats, and governed in a minority government with support from the Liberals. I imagine such a scenario in 2019 might go down well with some people on this board. Except they didn't. The Tories won the most seats but without a majority. They tried to form a government but their King's Speech was defeated. Ramsay McDonald then became the first Labour PM at the head of a minority government for a short period. Incidentally, the 1923 election was the last one where three parties won at least 100 seats. |
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Oct 30 2019, 08:28 PM
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#35
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 30 2019, 09:24 PM) Except they didn't. The Tories won the most seats but without a majority. They tried to form a government but their King's Speech was defeated. Ramsay McDonald then became the first Labour PM at the head of a minority government for a short period. Incidentally, the 1923 election was the last one where three parties won at least 100 seats. Mea culpa, I mis-remembered who won the most seats. |
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Oct 30 2019, 09:01 PM
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#36
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 14,281 User: 3,002
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I'm in a Tory stronghold really (Chelmsford); although the council went over to Lib Dem control in the council votes....
So i'm gonna vote Lib Dem - which I did last time too |
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Oct 31 2019, 02:30 AM
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#37
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929
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I would also watch carefully, everyone for tactical voting sites if your top priority is beating the Tories. There are going to be a lot of them about. When I see one that has good information I'll post it here.
I would recommend using one if any of you are unsure between Labour or Lib Dems. I would also recommend checking who is funding them to ensure they aren't leading you towards one side or the other. However, it is in the interests of Labour and Lib Dem activists to say that they are all supporting the other side. Also important is if you are more towards the Lib Dem side of the equation that efforts are focused on getting Conservative votes from moderates who are disapproving of Johnson, they are far more likely to go Lib Dem than Labour. (I would totally be on the ground doing this stuff if I were in England but I'm not so online it is) |
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Oct 31 2019, 05:30 AM
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#38
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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Will the weather be a factor?
Bad weather would certainly reduce the turnout, but would it affect one party more than another? |
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Oct 31 2019, 05:37 AM
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#39
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929
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Hmm, the common theory is that higher turnout (and good weather) should favour Labour and conversely bad weather would favour more certain voters, older and Conservative. However, what won't have been a factor in other elections will be the likelihood of cold weather, which may stop some older voters. And further to that, imagine if there is a snow forecast - that'd significantly disrupt everything.
If it's an average cold winter's day with light rain though, probably minimal overall impact aside from a little bit of a lower turnout due to the season. |
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Oct 31 2019, 05:52 AM
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#40
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 31 2019, 05:37 AM) Hmm, the common theory is that higher turnout (and good weather) should favour Labour and conversely bad weather would favour more certain voters, older and Conservative. However, what won't have been a factor in other elections will be the likelihood of cold weather, which may stop some older voters. And further to that, imagine if there is a snow forecast - that'd significantly disrupt everything. If it's an average cold winter's day with light rain though, probably minimal overall impact aside from a little bit of a lower turnout due to the season. Personally, even having to walk a mile through a blizzard wouldn't stop me! |
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