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| Album Chart Battle: Drake vs. Iron Maiden, Certified Lover Boy vs. Senjutsu |
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 Aug 31 2021, 04:02 PM
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#1
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 A dead mouse (from my cat)
Joined: 2 March 2018
Posts: 28,438 User: 67,771 
     
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Another big album chart battle is upon us! Both Drake and Iron Maiden are releasing their new albums this week 'Certified Lover Boy' and 'Senjutsu' (Sept 3rd), but how will they fair in the race to #1? It will also be the first full week of sales for Kanye West's 'Donda'.
This is how their last releases performed: Drake - Scorpion (2018): 63,690 Iron Maiden - The Book of Souls (2015): 60,249 Of course Iron Maiden's last release was in a stronger time for album sales, but I think I'm leaning towards them for this as I can't see Drake hitting the highs of his last sales - particularly with the lack of lead single. |
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Aug 31 2021, 04:08 PM
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#2
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 I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,037 User: 8,300
                
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It's hard to gauge if Drake will be able to pull off similar numbers to last time when he hasn't led it off with a proper single ('Laugh Now Cry Later' may still technically be the lead single but that was forever ago now) but for what it's worth this album has been hyped for a long time in a similar (though less chaotic) way to 'DONDA' and that has ended up doing extremely well on streaming even without any singles so I think there is still definitely the potential for him to do huge numbers again. I think it's likely both of these albums will have a smaller debut than the previous albums but they are from completely different worlds within the music industry so no idea which one will be dropping more
 I lean to thinking Drake will pull it off but definitely can see it going either way.
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Aug 31 2021, 04:10 PM
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#3
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 22 December 2009
Posts: 30,292 User: 10,275
   
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Iron Maiden wins this battle but Drake will be #1 the week after.
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Aug 31 2021, 04:16 PM
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#4
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A dead mouse (from my cat)
Joined: 2 March 2018
Posts: 28,438 User: 67,771
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QUOTE(Sour Candy @ Aug 31 2021, 05:10 PM)  Iron Maiden wins this battle but Drake will be #1 the week after. Manic Street Preachers are releasing on the week after, I think they may be able to contend with Drake's second week. (and possibly Steps too) |
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Aug 31 2021, 04:20 PM
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#5
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 November 2015
Posts: 33,182 User: 22,665
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Iron Maiden sure they can do at least 40K
the thing is even if you do very well on streams like Kanye is doing now, thats 5K a day, no more... so even if doing exceptionally well all week you cannot reach crazy numbers |
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Aug 31 2021, 04:20 PM
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#6
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,536 User: 11,746
    
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I get the feeling it'll be Iron Maiden with them keeping most of their fanbase since 2015 ready to buy albums. Drake will be massive on streaming but I don't see him having half the traditional sales of Scorpion (13,975 sales) which could very well make the difference.
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Aug 31 2021, 04:24 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2006
Posts: 9,448 User: 2,021
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I think Iron Maiden will get this.
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Aug 31 2021, 04:27 PM
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#8
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,510 User: 20,053
  
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Drake easily!
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Aug 31 2021, 05:08 PM
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#9
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 22 December 2009
Posts: 30,292 User: 10,275
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QUOTE(WhoOdyssey @ Aug 31 2021, 05:16 PM) Manic Street Preachers are releasing on the week after, I think they may be able to contend with Drake's second week. (and possibly Steps too) Could be.. Manics did 24k last time around and their fanbase is probably one of the most loyal out there. |
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Aug 31 2021, 05:32 PM
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#10
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 BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 20 August 2021
Posts: 1,368 User: 135,527
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Iron Maiden - metal fans lean physically, and Maiden have a lot of older fans to boot.
It doesn't matter how much streaming Drake gets he's lost this already. |
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Aug 31 2021, 05:56 PM
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#11
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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Yup Iron Maiden!
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Aug 31 2021, 06:18 PM
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#12
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Discoverer of Artemas
Joined: 28 August 2017
Posts: 10,656 User: 38,591
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Aug 31 2021, 05:20 PM) Iron Maiden sure they can do at least 40K the thing is even if you do very well on streams like Kanye is doing now, thats 5K a day, no more... so even if doing exceptionally well all week you cannot reach crazy numbers Exactly this - Dave and Olivia's albums both opened with less than 33k from streams in week 1, and I think Drake may do similar this time. Scorpion opened with 49,715 from streams, but aside from the lack of hit singles this time, I think Spotify has lost some of its share since 2018 to Amazon, where album bombs have less of an impact (songs seem to take longer to break there generally). Ultimately I can see Drake doing no more than 40k week 1 in total, and Iron Maiden doing a bit more than that. |
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Aug 31 2021, 07:33 PM
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#13
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 25 March 2007
Posts: 21,284 User: 3,155
 
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Iron Maiden - they have a physical buying fanbase and have plenty of formats (although the price tags are high)
Standard 2CD Digipak Deluxe 2CD Book Format Deluxe heavyweight 180G Triple Black Vinyl Special Edition Triple Silver & Black Marble Vinyl Special Edition Triple Red & Black Marble Vinyl Super Deluxe Boxset |
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Aug 31 2021, 08:47 PM
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#14
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I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,037 User: 8,300
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QUOTE(jimwatts @ Aug 31 2021, 07:18 PM) I think Spotify has lost some of its share since 2018 to Amazon, where album bombs have less of an impact (songs seem to take longer to break there generally). I don't think market share is a relevant argument here, people who would normally stream a Drake album surely aren't just going to randomly skip this one even if they are among the alleged people who have switched from Spotify to Amazon (or any other service Spotify is supposedly losing market share to). I think any potential drop in the streaming figures from 'Scorpion' will just be from people losing interest in Drake as an artist / him not being as omnipresent as he was in 2018 / him maybe having less aggressive promotion (lest we forget when Spotify infamously had Drake on the cover of literally all of their playlists when 'Scorpion' dropped lol) |
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Aug 31 2021, 09:05 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 January 2021
Posts: 7,018 User: 122,344
 
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Iron Maiden due to physical buying fanbase!
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Aug 31 2021, 09:29 PM
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#16
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Discoverer of Artemas
Joined: 28 August 2017
Posts: 10,656 User: 38,591
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QUOTE(Bré @ Aug 31 2021, 09:47 PM) I don't think market share is a relevant argument here, people who would normally stream a Drake album surely aren't just going to randomly skip this one even if they are among the alleged people who have switched from Spotify to Amazon (or any other service Spotify is supposedly losing market share to). I think any potential drop in the streaming figures from 'Scorpion' will just be from people losing interest in Drake as an artist / him not being as omnipresent as he was in 2018 / him maybe having less aggressive promotion (lest we forget when Spotify infamously had Drake on the cover of literally all of their playlists when 'Scorpion' dropped lol) My point was a general one about Spotify impact and its translation into album sales, compared to 3 years ago. Based on how much the Olivia and Dave album tracks dominated Spotify on their release weeks, I actually expected them to open with closer than 40k from streaming, or at least more than the 35k which Post Malone got for 'beerbongs & bentleys' in 2018 - it feels like something has gradually changed since then, regardless of the artist. Of course people who are still invested in Drake will be seeking out his new album regardless. |
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Sep 1 2021, 12:23 AM
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#17
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I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,037 User: 8,300
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QUOTE(jimwatts @ Aug 31 2021, 10:29 PM) My point was a general one about Spotify impact and its translation into album sales, compared to 3 years ago. Based on how much the Olivia and Dave album tracks dominated Spotify on their release weeks, I actually expected them to open with closer than 40k from streaming, or at least more than the 35k which Post Malone got for 'beerbongs & bentleys' in 2018 - it feels like something has gradually changed since then, regardless of the artist. Of course people who are still invested in Drake will be seeking out his new album regardless. I don't think the conversion between pure streaming numbers and album sales has changed at all since streaming was introduced to the albums chart (unless they did apply the change to differently weight ad-funded vs. premium streams? iirc that was only on the singles chart but I may be wrong) so similar numbers from Spotify should still translate to similar album sales. Was interested enough to crunch some numbers here if y'all will pardon a long post with a lot of numbers - comparing 'beerbongs & bentleys' to 'We're All Alone In This Together', these were the first week Spotify totals for their 3rd through 12th most popular tracks (i.e. the relevant ones for the album streaming sales calculations): 7 Paranoid by Post Malone 2,818,682 9 rockstar (feat. 21 Savage) by Post Malone 2,376,254 13 Spoil My Night (feat. Swae Lee) by Post Malone 2,198,506 15 Rich & Sad by Post Malone 2,121,197 16 Over Now by Post Malone 2,059,479 17 Stay by Post Malone 2,041,215 20 Zack And Codeine by Post Malone 1,938,858 21 Ball For Me (feat. Nicki Minaj) by Post Malone 1,900,306 24 Takin' Shots by Post Malone 1,798,349 25 Same Bitches (feat. G-Eazy & YG) by Post Malone 1,761,590 Total: 21,014,436 (25,217,323 including the top 2 tracks weighted down) 6 In The Fire by Dave 2,821,691 8 System (feat. WizKid) by Dave 2,183,292 11 We're All Alone by Dave 2,081,212 17 Twenty To One by Dave 1,661,292 18 Lazarus (feat. Boj) by Dave 1,641,152 20 Three Rivers by Dave 1,534,367 21 Heart Attack by Dave 1,534,118 23 Law Of Attraction (feat. Snoh Aalegra) by Dave 1,485,572 24 Both Sides Of A Smile (feat. James Blake) by Dave 1,377,074 27 Survivor's Guilt by Dave 1,262,428 Total: 17,582,198 (21,098,638 including the top 2 tracks weighted down) Based on that it's actually surprising that Dave's first week album streaming sales were as close to Post's as they were if you only look at Spotify, as the total from Spotify after performing the relevant calculation was only 83.7% of what Post got compared to Dave ultimately getting 92.4% of Post's first week album streaming sales - this is presumably explained by the increased userbase of Apple Music especially as that tends to be a big platform for UK rap artists. Unless you want to be a conspiracy theorist and accuse Dave of making up streams etc. As for 'SOUR', that album actually only had 11 songs which put it at an immediate disadvantage - her adding just one extra track would increase her streaming sales by at least ~9% pretty much for free. But for what it's worth the same calculation for her: 5 drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo 2,654,846 7 traitor by Olivia Rodrigo 2,431,047 8 brutal by Olivia Rodrigo 2,228,584 9 enough for you by Olivia Rodrigo 1,952,019 10 happier by Olivia Rodrigo 1,853,950 11 1 step forward, 3 steps back by Olivia Rodrigo 1,826,943 13 favorite crime by Olivia Rodrigo 1,766,680 14 jealousy, jealousy by Olivia Rodrigo 1,620,539 19 hope ur ok by Olivia Rodrigo 1,432,920 Total: 17,767,528 (21,715,868 including the top 2 tracks weighted down) So that does track well with Olivia having roughly the same (slightly higher) first week album streaming sales as Dave, with a much more comparable non-Spotify market in that comparison than the Dave vs. Post one of course. This was the benchmark set by 'Scorpion' for further comparison (so if - big if - 'Certified Lover Boy' does close to this well then it should have a similarly high first week album streaming sales total): 3 Nice For What by Drake 3,486,946 7 Emotionless by Drake 2,817,799 8 In My Feelings by Drake 2,766,105 9 God's Plan by Drake 2,759,201 10 I'm Upset by Drake 2,468,372 11 Survival by Drake 2,461,591 13 8 Out Of 10 by Drake 2,424,372 14 Elevate by Drake 2,404,860 17 Mob Ties by Drake 2,292,222 20 Can’t Take A Joke by Drake 2,034,821 Total: 25,916,289 (31,099,547 including the top 2 tracks weighted down) Interestingly there, the Spotify numbers for 'Scorpion' were 23.3% higher than those for 'beerbongs & bentleys', but in the end Drake's first week streaming sales total was 41.1% higher than Post's - those two albums were in the same year so I'd expect them to be closer but again it may just be explained by Drake doing a lot better on Apple Music / other platforms than Post did (perhaps 'beerbongs & bentleys' just relatively underperformed outside of Spotify in general given it also appears to have underperformed relative to Dave and Olivia when just looking at Spotify numbers). The implied Spotify market share, incidentally, based on each album (dividing the Spotify totals by 1,000 and comparing those to the final first week album streaming sales): Post Malone: 71.6% Dave: 64.8% Olivia Rodrigo: 64.7% Drake: 62.6% So Post Malone definitely seems to have had a higher proportion of his streams coming from Spotify than the other 3, but aside from that it appears that, anecdotally, Spotify's market share at least when it comes to album bombs is roughly the same if not very slightly higher than it was in 2018. That is unless Drake is the outlier rather than Post. Would need to check more albums to have more evidence but I cba at this moment xx |
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Sep 1 2021, 06:40 AM
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#18
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Discoverer of Artemas
Joined: 28 August 2017
Posts: 10,656 User: 38,591
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Thanks for crunching those numbers Bré. I wouldn't argue that Spotify's share when it comes to album bombs has drastically changed. However if you compare the weekly Spotify streams of the #19 or #20 for the week of those two 2018 albums:
20 Zack And Codeine by Post Malone 1,938,858 20 Can’t Take A Joke by Drake 2,034,821 with the two from earlier this year: 19 hope ur ok by Olivia Rodrigo 1,432,920 20 Three Rivers by Dave 1,534,367 that basically illustrates my original point, that landing your entire album in the Top 20 on Spotify doesn't carry as many streams as it used to. |
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Sep 1 2021, 11:23 AM
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#19
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I'll just stick around and do some more damage
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,037 User: 8,300
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Fair point but I don't think that necessarily means that Drake won't be able to do similar numbers again - I guess if anything it just means that if he does he will just appear to be even more dominant than last time
(also look out for how Ed does later in the year, 'No.6 Collaborations Project' had a similar first week streaming total to 'Scorpion' and I would expect '=' to do even better, of course '÷' currently remains pretty much in a league of its own with its first week figures).
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Sep 1 2021, 02:45 PM
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#20
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BuzzJack Idol
Joined: 29 June 2006
Posts: 128,408 User: 845
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Iron Maiden.
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