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 OPINION POLLS 2019-2024, This thread is 'oven-ready' for the latest polls. |
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 16th April 2021, 01:24 PM
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#401
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 BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 16 2021, 02:13 PM)  The idea of replacing Starmer is pretty mad though, who do you replace him with? There is a dearth of talent in Labour and internally the Party will throw different factions under the bus. Not sure a progressive allegiance will win back the seats the Party needs or plays to where Labour could go with winning back its support in the heartlands. The problem I always find and no matter who it is, the country is way too London/South-Centric. Even the likes of Momentum who are prominent don't have a clue what it's like on the whole to live in the North, especially away from the major cities. Well if the party is South centric, Labour is doing a poor job of getting seats there outside London and a few university cities. I do think you need someone who is inspiring - Starmer is not that person and is too calculating. I must admit that I can't think of an obvious successor- there are few great MPs who I would deeply love to PM, Clive Lewis, Roseena Allin Khan for example and I do love some of the newer younger ones such as Nadia Whittome and Zarah Sultana. But I doubt that any of them would cut through with the electorate. Maybe Andy Burnham? I don't see why a progressive alliance wouldn't work as the right wing have no problem uniting when need be. They just need to be bolder and believe in themselves a bit more. |
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16th April 2021, 01:58 PM
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#402
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,604 User: 88
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QUOTE(Smint @ Apr 16 2021, 02:24 PM) Well if the party is South centric, Labour is doing a poor job of getting seats there outside London and a few university cities. I do think you need someone who is inspiring - Starmer is not that person and is too calculating. I must admit that I can't think of an obvious successor- there are few great MPs who I would deeply love to PM, Clive Lewis, Roseena Allin Khan for example and I do love some of the newer younger ones such as Nadia Whittome and Zarah Sultana. But I doubt that any of them would cut through with the electorate. Maybe Andy Burnham? I don't see why a progressive alliance wouldn't work as the right wing have no problem uniting when need be. They just need to be bolder and believe in themselves a bit more. Not Party Centric, the Country is London/South Centric. As much as the Tories don't help that problem, they've at least begun to recognise there is more that can be done in the North. That's a wider problem, not just related to Labour. The problem I have is the idea that if Labour suddenly shifts to the Left it's going to win them elections is fantasy stuff. There is a lot more to be done than just appeasing the liberal, progressive middle classes. The only way Labour are going to get in the power unless the Tories self-destruct their massive majority is by appealing to Conservative voters. As shite as it is, voters want lower immigration than we had in the 2000s. All the better Labour MPs are in cushy Mayoral positions right now and I can't see them running in the future. Burnham seems completely bitten after his terrible performance in 2015. |
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16th April 2021, 02:03 PM
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#403
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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I'd go for Andy Burnham as next leader, looking at who's available now.
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16th April 2021, 02:23 PM
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#404
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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Well economically it could be argued that the Tories are planning some psuedo redistributive policies including raising corporation tax etc but I think they will look after their well heeled mates when it comes to it. And Labour were closest to winning in 2017 - albeit still pretty far away.
I personally don't think I could support a party that demonises the young, whitewashes racism reports, throws trans people under the bus and imply that waving flags will solve all the problems. The USA have just elected a President who certainly appears progressive and liberal and puts our country to shade (I know economically they've got a huge way to go to be considered anything like fair). It worries me when Labour tries to mimic the Tories - it means that they can go even more xenophobic as the Overton window on social issues/progressivity goes to the right and dangerous territory. |
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16th April 2021, 03:03 PM
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#405
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929               |
Two things, there are seats in the south that Labour could pick up due to changing demographics and progressive politics, not too many right now granted, but the likes of Chingford, Uxbridge and Esher may well be more solidly progressive and go to either Liberals or Labour in a few cycles depending on how far ideologically the Tories continue on. Just as places like Colorado in the US have been trending more solidly Democrat and were just as big a part of Biden's victory as winning the Rust Belt, it'll be places like that that'll be a part of a future Labour victory. Just as much if not more so than Bishop Auckland, Bolsover or Mansfield. So keeping Labour's current core voters is important.
The other, Labour going left to me doesn't mean going more progressive socially. Its current stance is pretty much hard-wired in there. It means being tougher on businesses and corporate greed, populist in the sense of appealing to workers, well, labour, the things the party was founded for. There's a lot to be said for fighting against the London-centric model and it is a bit of an own goal that Starmer is very much a Westminster/London elite placement. If Labour seeks to win back the northern voters, then picking up on their distrust of the establishment and yes, heaven forbid, going a little populist, could well bring them back onside. If they're sticking with Starmer though, they need to start following the Biden playbook, include the left policies without making them too front and center. Just occasional reaffirmations that the man still believes in the pledges he was elected on would be enough. |
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16th April 2021, 03:12 PM
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#406
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
anyway, that one is an outlier, always wait for Survation 
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16th April 2021, 04:01 PM
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#407
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,117 User: 18,639
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A little reminder that Cprbyn picked up Tory seats in the south east that were basically rotten boroughs and had NEVER changed hands x
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16th April 2021, 04:57 PM
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#408
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,562 User: 10,030
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I was going to say... The Greens being up to 8% seemed a bit too good to be true! It's a shame we don't have proportional representation and likely never will.
 It would likely stop the conservatives ever getting into power.  Hopefully the survation increase for Labour is a sign of things to come with the lobbying scandal and Keir Starmer actually playing the opposition on it. |
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16th April 2021, 05:29 PM
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#409
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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Hopefully Labour now know how to attack the Tories: their stinking, vile corruption and the elite all being in it together! Combine that with attacking their austerity and quietly promoting left policies, without focusing on it so that the neoliberal, classist British state doesn't work itself up into a propaganda frenzy, and attacking Tory incompetence, and they have a way forward, even with Steir.
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16th April 2021, 05:45 PM
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#410
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Apr 16 2021, 06:29 PM) Hopefully Labour now know how to attack the Tories: their stinking, vile corruption and the elite all being in it together! You're like a stuck record Michael. |
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16th April 2021, 10:09 PM
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#411
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Apr 16 2021, 05:57 PM) I was going to say... The Greens being up to 8% seemed a bit too good to be true! It's a shame we don't have proportional representation and likely never will. It would likely stop the conservatives ever getting into power. Hopefully the survation increase for Labour is a sign of things to come with the lobbying scandal and Keir Starmer actually playing the opposition on it. Yes thankfully something non-brexit/covid that Starmer has instructed the shadow cabinet to go big on how tory sleaze is still the same as the 90s. |
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16th April 2021, 10:13 PM
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#412
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 16 2021, 02:58 PM) Not Party Centric, the Country is London/South Centric. As much as the Tories don't help that problem, they've at least begun to recognise there is more that can be done in the North. That's a wider problem, not just related to Labour. The problem I have is the idea that if Labour suddenly shifts to the Left it's going to win them elections is fantasy stuff. There is a lot more to be done than just appeasing the liberal, progressive middle classes. The only way Labour are going to get in the power unless the Tories self-destruct their massive majority is by appealing to Conservative voters. As shite as it is, voters want lower immigration than we had in the 2000s. All the better Labour MPs are in cushy Mayoral positions right now and I can't see them running in the future. Burnham seems completely bitten after his terrible performance in 2015. You could argue the only time Labour have EVER got into power is when the tories eat each other after long periods in office. So whats the points in trying to mimic them and why not challenge the system and change it for the better similar to like they did in 1945. Look how much better the country became when that did actually happen. It became more equal, more compassionate, more moral and less poor. I know it might not come natutrally to a centrist/centre right person but some of the things in the system do need to change to help everyone move on together or we will forever be in the old boom and bust bootm rung growth phase of the post 2005 era. |
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16th April 2021, 10:28 PM
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#413
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,117 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(common sense @ Apr 16 2021, 05:45 PM) You're like a stuck record Michael. It is a disgusting party and authoritarian clown Blojo is the worst of it. |
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16th April 2021, 10:32 PM
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#414
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,604 User: 88
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 16 2021, 11:13 PM) You could argue the only time Labour have EVER got into power is when the tories eat each other after long periods in office. So whats the points in trying to mimic them and why not challenge the system and change it for the better similar to like they did in 1945. Look how much better the country became when that did actually happen. It became more equal, more compassionate, more moral and less poor. I know it might not come natutrally to a centrist/centre right person but some of the things in the system do need to change to help everyone move on together or we will forever be in the old boom and bust bootm rung growth phase of the post 2005 era. Things won't change though with the current system. It's near enough impossible I'd say unless you have a truly populist leader, which I don't think is going tp happen anytime soon. There definitely needs to be change, I 100% agree on that point. But what I think a lot of people fail to realise, is that for the change to work you actually need to work together and compromise on principles to win the electorate. This is a major problem I have with Momentum, who would love control of the Labour Party but would never actually get elected because they can't ever compromise so they're never going to gain power where it matters. The polling seems all over the place right now, it's hard to know where we really are. Will be interesting once normality begings to form a bit of semblence again, that's when we will really know where Labour and the Tories stand with the electorate. |
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16th April 2021, 10:40 PM
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#415
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,117 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 16 2021, 10:32 PM) Things won't change though with the current system. It's near enough impossible I'd say unless you have a truly populist leader, which I don't think is going tp happen anytime soon. There definitely needs to be change, I 100% agree on that point. But what I think a lot of people fail to realise, is that for the change to work you actually need to work together and compromise on principles to win the electorate. This is a major problem I have with Momentum, who would love control of the Labour Party but would never actually get elected because they can't ever compromise so they're never going to gain power where it matters. The polling seems all over the place right now, it's hard to know where we really are. Will be interesting once normality begings to form a bit of semblence again, that's when we will really know where Labour and the Tories stand with the electorate. And yet had the CENTRISTS not sabotaged Labour - this is a fact - then Momentum and Corbyn would have won vs a buoyed Tory Brexshit vote x The Tories and the neoliberal British state were TERRIFIED of momentum and Corbyn, and had entire lectures at their conferences - packed to the brim - about how the argument was being won by the left. How quickly we centrists forget! |
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16th April 2021, 11:05 PM
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#416
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 16 2021, 11:32 PM) Things won't change though with the current system. It's near enough impossible I'd say unless you have a truly populist leader, which I don't think is going tp happen anytime soon. There definitely needs to be change, I 100% agree on that point. But what I think a lot of people fail to realise, is that for the change to work you actually need to work together and compromise on principles to win the electorate. This is a major problem I have with Momentum, who would love control of the Labour Party but would never actually get elected because they can't ever compromise so they're never going to gain power where it matters. The polling seems all over the place right now, it's hard to know where we really are. Will be interesting once normality begings to form a bit of semblence again, that's when we will really know where Labour and the Tories stand with the electorate. I agree with your points but disagree it takes a populaist leader to bring that change about and again history shows it. You need systematic change and cultural change in institutions and economics which pave the way for political change like in 1945. The old system has to be so discredited that it becomes inevitable and the two major events this century have been the 2008 crash and the fallout including MPs expenses and then corona virus, they will combined tip the system to create change. So its not politicans its events in my thesis. This post has been edited by steve201: 16th April 2021, 11:06 PM |
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16th April 2021, 11:44 PM
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#417
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,604 User: 88
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QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Apr 16 2021, 11:40 PM) And yet had the CENTRISTS not sabotaged Labour - this is a fact - then Momentum and Corbyn would have won vs a buoyed Tory Brexshit vote x The Tories and the neoliberal British state were TERRIFIED of momentum and Corbyn, and had entire lectures at their conferences - packed to the brim - about how the argument was being won by the left. How quickly we centrists forget! Momentum and Corbyn have never won an election though and nor were they ever likely to. Yes your can point to 2017 as I suspect you will, a manifesto which was actually largely written by the liberal left before Momentum got their sticky fingers involved, but completely ignore the 2019 election. Conferences and small rallies are not the elctorate! QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 17 2021, 12:05 AM) I agree with your points but disagree it takes a populaist leader to bring that change about and again history shows it. You need systematic change and cultural change in institutions and economics which pave the way for political change like in 1945. The old system has to be so discredited that it becomes inevitable and the two major events this century have been the 2008 crash and the fallout including MPs expenses and then corona virus, they will combined tip the system to create change. So its not politicans its events in my thesis. But how do we shift under the current system? I think it is almost impossible, especially with Labour losing any sort of vote in Scotland and now their Heartlands. I totally agree the Expenses scandal left a very sour taste and this was compounded with the Crash with Labour took the immediate brunt for. But the problem now is it is relly impossible for Labour to get back in to power unless they shift to become more conservative under the current FPTP system. |
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17th April 2021, 12:10 AM
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#418
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561
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That YouGov poll may have been an outlier, but the trend is there to see...
Mostly vaccine rollout related though tbh 
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17th April 2021, 11:40 AM
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#419
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,117 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 17 2021, 12:44 AM) Momentum and Corbyn have never won an election though and nor were they ever likely to. Yes your can point to 2017 as I suspect you will, a manifesto which was actually largely written by the liberal left before Momentum got their sticky fingers involved, but completely ignore the 2019 election. Conferences and small rallies are not the elctorate! But how do we shift under the current system? I think it is almost impossible, especially with Labour losing any sort of vote in Scotland and now their Heartlands. I totally agree the Expenses scandal left a very sour taste and this was compounded with the Crash with Labour took the immediate brunt for. But the problem now is it is relly impossible for Labour to get back in to power unless they shift to become more conservative under the current FPTP system. Again, left wing policies were EXTREMELY popular and got Corbyn more votes than Blair. Stop blaming the left for the entire British STATE attacking Corbyn maniacally and destroying him. Combine that with Brexshit and there you have 2019. It wasn't the left. I know you centrists would looove that to be the case, but the centre's dead. Look at the Lib Dems. The only way the centrists beat Bernie was by conniving- sound familiar? - and forcing Buttiege and Amy out the race and keeping Warren in. There were massive disparities between the exit polls and the "real" data later, too, always in favour of Biden. This is after the DNC defended its actions vs Bernie in 2016, sayong that primaries were not in the constitution, it could do what it wanted, and there was no need for there to even BE primaries, when the DNC is perfectly within its rights to just wheel out its candidate from the smoky boardrooms and say, here. Biden then struggled to beat Trump. Bernie, meanwhile, is the most popular poltiican in the US and was polling well ov3r 10% more than Trump and taking all swing states but Florida. The centrists screamed about thia, only to handily lose Florida themselves... If the Labour centrists had got behind Corbyj in 2017, hadn't tried to dethrone him for Angela bloody Eagle, hadn't sabotaged the election then guess what? We would have Corbyn RIGHT NOW. We were 2k votes fron a progressive coalition 2k. They were close. Centrists ruined it. Thanks for brexshit and Blojo, centrists! |
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17th April 2021, 11:50 AM
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#420
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
I mean, Corbyn still would have implemented Brexit, just with probably less corruption, instability in NI and other things that look immediately wrong.
Yeah, 2017 does prove that it's possible for left policies to be within a fighting chance - and to get millions more votes than an embattled Labour, when angled correctly and not up against something else like a culture-defining moment like Brexit + a press that realises how close they got last time and can fire up the manufacturing consent machine. Starmer would be ideal for the left if he were hiding his power level until he got into office. I don't know if he is, the evidence every week suggests not. But without that enthusiasm, a damp squib Miliband or Kinnock-esque failure of a centre campaign is just as possible and in fact looking far more likely. Basically, the Labour Party needs to chill about which faction is in charge and not go so hard on purity-testing in EITHER direction and instead come out with something that they can stand for, that has a competent team willing to stand behind it. The Telegraph will still make up deranged shit about the party no matter what, in fact they did so this very week, but not all the press will do, and they're willing to back Starmer as the competent one on evidence, he just needs to have actions that deserve it. |
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