New year, new thread
Previous threads
http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=202207 (2017)
http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=208671 (2018 Part 1)
http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=211831 (2018 Part 2)
http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=215253 (2018 Part 3)
February 1
08 - 22 Ariana Grande - Thank U, Next
17 - 56 James Arthur and Anne-Marie - Rewrite The Stars
23 - 64 Zara Larsson - Ruin My Life
February 8
29 - 81 Clean Bandit feat Marina and Luis Fonsi - Baby
February 15
02 - 11 Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho
10 - 23 Post Malone and Swae Lee - Sunflower
21 - 68 Kodak Black - Zeze
23 - 62 George Ezra - Hold My Girl
27 - 77 Ellie Goulding and Diplo feat Swae Lee - Close To Me
28 - Out Ariana Grande, thank u, next
38 - 78 Calvin Harris and Dua Lipa - One Kiss
February 22
09 - 17 Mark Ronson and Miley Cyrus - Nothing Breaks Like a Heart
March 1
07 - 14 Post Malone - Wow
11 - Out Ariana Grande - Needy
33 - Out RUSS - Gun Lean
March 8
22 - 74 Jax Jones and Years and Years - Play
25 - 60 Freya Ridings - Lost Without You
March 15
23 - 65 Meek Mill feat Drake - Going Bad
24 - 67 Cadet x Dino Driz - Advice
March 22
05 - 16 Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing With a Stranger
34 - 79 Pinkfong - Baby Shark
38 - 86 Westlife - Hello My Love
March 29
03 - 16 Mabel - Don't Call Me Up
07 - 29 Ariana Grande - 7 Rings
April 5
36 - 85 J Cole - Middle Child
April 12
28 - 67 Blueface - Thotiana
April 19
15 - 39 Ariana Grande - Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
April 26
06 - 16 Calvin Harris and Rag 'n' Bone Man - Giant
23 - 51 NSG feat Tion Wayne - Options
38 - 86 YNW Nelly - Murder On My Mind
So what is likely to be on ACR tomorrow?
I don't believe anything is falling to ACR this week because the EOY effect boosted streams across the board.
nothing going to ACR but we have 4 resets!
One Kiss
2002
I'll Be There
New Rules
It's kind of a saving grace that 'Shotgun' had still been holding up as well as it was before, because if it had died off just a bit more that could easily have ended up getting a reset too and probably returning to the top 3 or something. This week makes me think it'd make the most sense for the OCC to just get rid of the automatic reset rule and make it label request only. Songs on ACR increasing streams by 50% in a week just seems like too high a bar to happen naturally ('Close To Me' really should be getting a reset for example but it probably isn't coming close), it'll only happen with cases like this.
That could easily affect some slow-burners though, no one has actually used the manual reset before have they? One example that immediately comes to mind is Tom Walker's Leave A Light On which didn't reach the top 40 on its first chart run but became a top ten hit later in the year. Would that have never been a hit otherwise?
I imagine they would have asked for a reset considering they officially re released the single
Oh... that's why 2002 is back inside the 40 I wish someone can make it go away, I wondered why it climbed so many places up the chart.
didn't Katy Perry get a reset with swish swish?
Fout songs reset and none of them really need it
If I understand correctly, the 14% drop in the market this week (more specifically the 14% drop in streams) due to the Christmas songs dropping out means that only a 36% boost in a song's streams was needed for a reset to SCR.
Assuming a lot of songs will be going onto ACR the week after next seeing as they’ve been dropping since the NYE increase and Xmas clearout
Freya's streams are up again this week. Does that mean she has avoided ACR for another 3 weeks?
When will Baby Shark get hit with ACR?
What songs are on ACR this week?
Nothing that wasn't on ACR last week, still a week to go before anything falls onto ACR.
Looks like 'Close To Me' has had a manual reset for whatever reason (it certainly didn't increase by 50% in streams last week). Perhaps it wouldn't have gone to ACR under the new rules so the label must have asked and in the interest of fairness OCC let them have their way.
Sales are up all round so it's looking rather likely that everything that would've gone to ACR will avoid ACR again.
Yasss justice for Close To Me!
Surely there must be some upcoming promo for it if the label asked for a reset?
Looks like there was insufficient data giving us a different story earlier this week, certain songs are now showing decline but we still have missing data so who knows.
Anyhow here's what's possibly going to ACR next week:
thank u, next
Rewrite the Stars (JA/AM)
Ruin My Life
A Million Dreams (P!nk)
New Rules
New Rules going to ACR too soon
But i thought you could only get a
Reset if you were out of the top 100?
Don't expect the OCC to apply their own rules. For the millionth time.
Baby will easily drop from the top 40 then...
Is baby shark arc
Was sure with baby clean bandit or baby shark thank Joseph clean that up
Guess it's about time for Baby. I just thoughts its rise in Spotify streams last week might give it another 3 weeks
Freya is on 2 weeks Spotify decline so needs a streaming boost this week to avoid ACR because AFAIK it's iTunes rise is not a factor any more
'Lost Without You' is up to #71 on Spotify from #106, so the performance has clearly had an impact there and she could still avoid ACR (yet again).
Baby and Baby Shark are the big name casualties this week and both are no longer in the Top 75
Baby Shark isn't on ACR, just suffering from the midweeks having no YouTube data as things stand!
When does a song usually become affected by ACR (in terms of how many weeks it spents on the chart/Top 40)?
No earlier than its 10th week on the chart but it has to have 3 consecutive weeks decline in streaming numbers. I think.
Freya's performance means she is currently c30k up on Spotify on the week but it may still be touch and go whether she yet again avoids ACR
Next week's potential ACR victims... and there's a lot of them! (will confirm on Monday):
Advice
Close To Me
Hold My Girl
I'll Be There
Leave a Light On
Mo Bamba
Money
One Kiss
Perfect To Me
Sunflower
Sweet but Psycho
ZEZE
Fans of songs avoiding ACR time and time again will be pleased to hear that Lost Without You and Baby Shark will most likely avoid it for another 3 weeks.
I hope Advice, Zeze and PTM can avoid it. Ill be happy if OK, SBP and LALO all get caught by ACR
I admit I'm a big fan of Lost Without You but think Good Soldier should try and push another single given her album release is late in Q2
Tom Walker's album is early March so I hope we can finally move on to the next single now
Close To Me to avoid it pls
I know about Just You and I. It just can't make much impact because it is being overshadowed by LALO.
I hope "Advice" avoids ACR due to the death of Cadet
I assume it's already going onto ACR for this week but it might get enough of an increase this week to be reset again the following week (depending, as ever, on how the OCC choose to interpret their rules).
Kobbar would not approve. (RIP Cadet)
Clearout of the bottom end of the chart this week
Hope Camelphat and Tom Walker (JYAI) can benefit from it and rise a fair few spots
So if 'Advice' has what would have been a 50%+ sales increase if it were not moving to ACR, but because of the move to ACR the nominal increase is less than that, will it still get the reset? Who knows. (I think this happened with 'Mi Gente' and it did get reset but not sure).
Yeah it's registering a 128.4% increase in streams currently this week so it'll get the reset next week if it keeps above 50%!
Next week's potential ACR victims...
Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
...and that's it. We should also see Advice be reset.
I glad Freya Ridings goes arc
It is reset and heading for a top 20 peak
Freya is on 2 weeks decline now
I hope they move on to the new single which is supposed to be out next Friday- You Mean the World to Me
What will be on ACR this week if anything>
Lost Without You needs to die now.
Next week's potential ACR victims...
Gun Lean
Leave Me Alone
Saturday Nights
Wow too potentially but it's more likely that it would have just avoided it.
Under the old rules, Wow would be on ACR for sure, as the song has declined in total sales for the last 4 weeks while the market has always increased
Checking on Spotify only, Wow's stream figures have been pretty stable for the last month,
with an average of 400K on week 6, 395K on week 7, 394k on week 8, and a slight increase this week to 404k (week 9)
but of course no clue about other platforms, but last least on Spotify he increased this week
Wow is up three to #4 in audio streaming and up one to #8 in overall streaming, so I think it's likely his streaming points increased.
Freya is up 2 to 40 on the Audio Streaming charts despite being in the 90s on Spotify with lower figures than last week. Does that mean she is doing well on Apple Music and may still have a chance of avoiding ACR yet again?
She's #70 on AM at the moment so I'm not sure how she's getting enough streams to make #40, she must be doing better on Amazon but I don't think they have a streaming chart so I can't check.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Most-Played-in-Prime/dp/B07NWF2KGH/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-music-playlist&ie=UTF8&qid=1550924261&sr=1-1&refinements=p_n_format_browse-bin%3A5685284031
Say 6 on amazon Freya Ridings
I just hope that "Shotgun" doesn’t get a reset
There's absolutely no chance of Shotgun getting a reset.
Curated by Amazon's Music "Experts"
I know this is slightly off topic but the current top songs for amazon are:
1. Calvin Harris and Rag N Bone Man - Giant
2. George Ezra - Shotgun
3. Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho
4. Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
5. Mabel - Don’t Call Me Up
6. Marshmello and Bastille - Happier
7. Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing With A Stranger
8. Ariana Grande - 7 Rings
9. Ariana Grande - Break Up etc.
10. Post Malone and Swae Lee - Sunflower
11. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper - Shallow
12. Panic! At The Disco - High Hopes
13. Mark Ronson and Miley Cyrus - Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
14. Post Malone - Wow
15. Jess Glynne - Thursday
16. Billie Eilish- Bury a Friend
17. Hugh Jackman - The Greatest Show
18. Keala Settle - This Is Me
19. Calvin Harris and Sam Smith - Promises
20. Tom Walker - Leave a Light On
Amazon users seem to lag behind Spotify a bit with their new music listening. They also don’t seem to like rap music at all!!
Wow. was at #7 over 11k ahead of bury a friend at #8 last week, so a modest decline on ACR makes sense
Could Shallow be reset - bound to get a massive boost this week?
No, because iTunes no longer count towards ACR. (Unless it gets a massive streaming boost, so who knows actually).
Who gone arc this week
going to ACR next week (potentially)
Jax Jones - Play
Freya Ridings - Lost Without You
Yxng Bane - Needed Time
Fisher - Losing It
Hope Freya can get another hit with the new single
And very surprised to not see Baby Shark on that list actually
Baby Shark is actually gaining in streams so it has at least another 3 weeks and I'd be willing to bet that it'll avoid ACR again within the next 3 weeks, it's not going anytime soon.
It's going to literally keep 'selling' until the end of time at this rate, it's still #1 in the video streaming chart and there will always be young children who are easily entertained by videos like these.
Case in point: the Gummy bear song from over 10 years ago is #51 in the video streaming chart too - that'll be Baby shark in 10 years.
Last not as bad crazy frog
Wounded gone arc this week
So, Lost Without You goes to ACR on its 34th week. That's 5 weeks earlier than Feel It Still which still holds the record for ACR avoidance of songs released since it was introduced.
However I think Freya has set a new high for this era, of 22 weeks between LWY first reaching its peak (#9) and going to ACR.
I was debating whether LWY actually was on ACR given it having dropped into the 40s on iTunes and its streaming having been woeful all year.
I am worried about how long it is taking the new song to get back to the Top 200 on Spotify too
next week's potential Victims...
Meek Mill feat Drake - Going Bad
Cadet & Deno Driz - Advice
Chris Brown - Undecided
21 Savage - A Lot
A Boogie Wit da Hoodie - Look Back At It
Headie One feat. Dave - 18Hunna
next week's potential victims:
Dancing With A Stranger
Baby Shark [finally!]
Hello My Love
2002 [finally!]
Desire
Lost In the Fire
Longshot*Baby Shark and 2002 get a sudden sales spike at the end of the week just to annoy me further*
Didn't realise that '2002' was still coasting along on SCR.
Baby Shark down 1 place today. I wonder if we will only know if it's still on SCR in the first set of the midweeks.
Wait WHAT 2002 is still on SCR? How?!
It's not been on SCR since it came out - it came off ACR after Christmas I believe.
Nooo, not Baby Shark ending its run of avoiding ACR!
What about giant as came out same time Sam smith
And week after Ariana Grande 7 rings
Not sure Lewis Capaldi grace or someone you love as on over 10 week
7 Rings has one more week on SCR. Grace, SYL and Giant have two more weeks (if they all keep declining).
Thank dan g how many week Mabel got left
One more for Mabel.
Projected drops:
The Weeknd didn't have much longevity with the songs that made it onto 'My Dear Melancholy,' so it's no surprise that he didn't with the blatant leftover either. A real shame that Gesaffelstein couldn't even make the top 100 with the massively better follow-up 'Blast Off' though, and his album didn't go top 100 either, proving as if there was any doubt that 'Lost In The Fire' was basically just treated as a new The Weeknd song by the public and Gesaffelstein got absolutely nothing out of it as an artist despite being the lead artist.
Hope Swarmz goes to arc this week
Swarmz still has another week.
Here's what should be going to ACR next week:
Mabel - Don't Call Me Up
Ariana Grande - 7 Rings
NSG feat. Tion Wayne - Options
CamelPhat & Cristoph feat. Jem Cooke - Breathe
AJ Tracey - Psych Out!
Annoyingly A Boogie/6ix9ine were set to join them but they're almost certainly gaining this week.
Very unlikely. Not only is Lewis gaining this week so it'll be a while before he hits ACR, Ariana is declining fairly quickly and isn't anywhere near #1.
Thank you dan g
I'd go for Tom Walker or Jonas Brothers for #1 next.
As an outside guess I'll go for Marshmello/CHVRCHES.
Lewis Capaldi is not going to ACR any time soon, he is still gaining. The next #1 will quite likely be something that's not out yet.
may i know westlife - hello my love position if it wasnt for acr? they charted at #86 i think.
which songs are entering ACR this week?
It says a few posts above
ah yes - we should wait till tomorrow to find out
Calvin Harris rag n bone man giant still safe so change top 2 singles chart again
I would not have expected Giant to avoid ACR! Will probably just mean a longer run at #2 though
both Giant and SYL are gaining this week so there's very little chance of Giant ever getting lucky and going to #1 just from SYL being on ACR.
Think About Us has avoided, the other two have not.
Also, Nevermind has been reset.
Will So Am I be affected?
Well eventually yes, but it’s still a while away
next week's ACR victims should be...
Blueface - Thotiana
Kehlani feat. Ty Dolla $ign - Nights Like This
What’s set to go to ACR next week?
Ariana Grande - Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
Mustard & Migos - Pure Water
Lizzo - Juice
Quite a dull week really.
How much long giant to arc
Quite a few songs potentially going to ACR next week...
Giant
Don't Feel Like Crying
Options
Murder On My Mind
Please Me
Think About Us
K!tchen Kings
Ladbroke Grove
Robbery
Should give go change jonas blue climb top 40 next week if does not get in this week all songs drop just need 2 Lewis Capaldi go arc happy days
Lewis won’t be going to ACR for a while, he looks to be gaining this week actually.
I mean on this Friday's chart they'd have declined for 3 straight weeks, then next Friday they are on ACR.
Sigrid is reaching new streaming peaks it’d be a shame if she hits ACR now
Another interesting thing to note is that Ariana's break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored becomes only the sixth #1 since ACR was introduced to have left the top 10 BEFORE ACR hits
Artists For Grenfell - Bridge Over Troubled Water (not on chart long enough)
Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do (ACR in 10th week, four weeks outside top 10 beforehand, fell 24-51)
Jess Glynne - I'll Be There (ACR in 12th week, two weeks outside top 10 beforehand, fell 14-25)
Dave & Fredo - Funky Friday (ACR in 10th week, one week outside top 10 beforehand, fell 12-51)
LadBaby - We Built This City (not on chart long enough)
Ariana Grande - break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (ACR in 10th week, one week outside top 10 beforehand, fell 15-39)
It's a real shame to see Dave and Ariana on the same list as those other 4 for this unusually fast descent from #1, they're 2 of the better #1s of the last few years for me. (I do like 'I'll Be There' as well but not nearly as much - that song's chart run is really anomalous among recent non-charity #1s though, it is the only one there that didn't debut at #1 and yet it still actually spent multiple weeks outside the top 10 before ACR hitting! 'Look What You Made Me Do' also rather anomalous in a different (and deserved) way x)
I guess I'll Be There didn't hit ACR on its 10th week like the other three on the list!
16-13-6-5-2-1-4-4-7-13-14-25-...
It must have increased on the underlined week to keep it off ACR. If it went on week 10, it would have fallen from #7 to... wherever and it would swerve the list!
Good for Sigrid, she seems to have stability now anyway
She's been placed high on Summer Hits UK which has given her a new Spotify peak so she should fine for the next month at least.
I wounded got arc tomorrow
Hope big list of arc this week to
there's not a lot going to ACR next week, the likely contenders are...
Billie Eilish - Bury A Friend
Giggs - Baby
How long before Swervin potentially goes ACR?
Any new arc tomorrow tracks
going to ACR next week will be...
Billie Eilish - Wish You Were Gay
Roddy Ricch et al - How It Is
(Swervin won't be on ACR for a while)
Ugh I was hoping I’m So Tired and Someone You Love would be Hit this week
Is grace arc yet
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