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 Eurovision Song Contest 2017 · Predictions |
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 21st March 2017, 08:57 PM
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#41
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 Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342 
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I suppose we'll just agree to disagree on the subject then (and see who's got the least egg on their face come May 14th
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21st March 2017, 09:04 PM
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#42
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 Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,048 User: 116
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Ha! Indeed. I wouldn't be at all bothered if Italy don't win...unless something crap does! It's not my favourite of the year by any means and I always enjoy a surprise victor. Just my gut feeling is telling me this will be an easy winner.
But we'll definitely see, I thought the same about many entries that haven't done so! My 2011 predictions were so far out it's not funny and my 2014 predictions weren't up to much either, so going by the three-year rule I could be set to slip up spectacularly again! |
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21st March 2017, 09:19 PM
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#43
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,176 User: 10,139
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Oh Australia is deffo gonna be a jury hit, he is fine at performing ballads so is more than capable I just hate the song
 I agree it'll probably be borderline on televotes, like say 7th-10th, and then really buoyed up by the juries. I think the final could go anything from about 5th to 15th, but that's the same for a lot of songs. It's so hard to call this year, not helped by the fact that I'm crap at predicting!I am still of the opinion Italy has this, but with it being what feels like the only vague contender I wouldn't be entirely shocked if it didn't either. I get the qualms about his voice but it's not TOO bad so I don't think that will harm it too much. I think something we don't expect will come out of nowhere in the semis, nobody really expected a top 2 of Conchita and Common Linnets in 2014 before the semis for example. I couldn't begin to imagine what will do that, but that's the fun of Eurovision. I'd be totally fine with Italy storming it but a surprise victory is always fun. Conchita and to a lesser extent Jamala (I did have a "this could be a shock win" vibe after it won the selection but I stopped thinking that) were such moments partially because of that. It's always fun when someone just happens to have a really good performance that hits Europe and they knock the favourites out of the way. I hope perhaps Belgium can do it? |
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21st March 2017, 09:30 PM
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#44
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my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,756 User: 8,674
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Someone who did see the Conchita win coming - we need Tom Kay back to set us all straight on what's going to happen this year!
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21st March 2017, 09:42 PM
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#45
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,048 User: 116
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I could ask him
I spoke to him on FB last week. Some of his predictions were also traditionally well off mind.My sister - as a casual observer - used to be very good at this. I wonder if it helps sometimes to be looking in from the outside, as fans can get emotionally attached to songs and overrate them. She predicted Lordi in 2006 and Marija in 2007, both from the first listen, and neither were locked in favourites, Lordi certainly were only predicted to come low top 10 but she was pretty sure they'd run away with it from the first time she heard it. This post has been edited by gooddelta: 21st March 2017, 09:42 PM |
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21st March 2017, 09:44 PM
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#46
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929        |
I'm going to call Croatia nailing down their obviously tricky performance aesthetic with some clever holograms or something to shock and awe audiences into voting for them.
But like, a song that has that sort of uniqueness about it would be a call for a Conchita. Not necessarily Croatia if only because anecdotally here it seems to be only me who likes it. As there are no obvious ones like that, I'm going to stick to a Bulgaria for my real prediction for now but I'm going to reserve the right to change as new information becomes available. I'm going to watch France, Portugal, Belarus (a potential Common Linnets thing if they manage to overcome the language barrier, that seems to be becoming a common problem which if it isn't an obstacle could be the way the contest moves back from English domination), Latvia, Iceland, Cyprus, Macedonia amongst others to potentially come out of nowhere but those are all shots in the dark really and are mostly from countries with shaky records. Which is another thing about how this year is hard to call, can these countries overcome their poor records for success this time? |
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21st March 2017, 09:46 PM
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#47
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 29 April 2006
Posts: 3,392 User: 519
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This is the joys of overthinking eh? I've blocked 2014 results from my memory. I get Italy as the winner for now, but we have a small handful of songs that could be propelled by captivating staging. My heart wants Belgium to clinch this as it would be so deserved, not least as they haven't won since 1986!
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21st March 2017, 09:53 PM
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#48
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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I reckon Belgium are in with a shot if they really want to push for it. "All alone in the danger zone" is a pretty strong hook with scope to make it work on an affective level and it's the kind of thing they can stage really atmospherically (hoping for something suitably "manic pixie dream girl caught in the city lights" on that front) and given it's mostly the same people that staged Rhythm Inside I'm reasonably confident that they know what they're doing.
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21st March 2017, 10:11 PM
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#49
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 29 April 2006
Posts: 3,392 User: 519
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I've only listened to the Italian entry, say, twice and I've now just listened to the 3 minute edit which sounds terrible. Not great given I'm not fluent even with the original mix. Doubt this will make much difference however
This post has been edited by ScottyEm: 21st March 2017, 10:11 PM |
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21st March 2017, 10:18 PM
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#50
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,048 User: 116
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Maybe they'll perform a different edit on the night.
A bit like when Cascada decided to slice their verse in half to fit in more of the drop after people complained about it being cut (as opposed to the official ESC studio version which had less drop and more verse). Fat lot of good it did for them mind Mind you, Natalie was not on form vocally that evening so perhaps it was a relief to hear less of her singing.
This post has been edited by gooddelta: 21st March 2017, 10:19 PM |
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21st March 2017, 10:49 PM
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#51
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my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,756 User: 8,674
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I think the edit would sound a lot better / less obvious just by removing the 'a-ha ha' bit from where it's cut
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25th March 2017, 04:45 PM
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#52
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I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
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Semi 1
01. Sweden 02. Australia 03. Belgium 04. Latvia 05. Greece 06. Moldova 07. Azerbaijan 08. Iceland 09. Poland 10. Albania 11. Montenegro 12. Georgia 13. Finland 14. Armenia 15. Portugal 16. Cyprus 17. Czech Republic 18. Slovenia Semi 2 01. The Netherlands 02. Estonia 03. Macedonia 04. Bulgaria 05. Belarus 06. Israel 07. Romania 08. Serbia 09. Denmark 10. Hungary 11. Switzerland 12. Croatia 13. Norway 14. Austria 15. Russia 16. San Marino 17. Ireland 18. Lithuania 19. Malta idk though. It's REALLY hard to call this year, going to all come down to staging. |
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25th March 2017, 05:42 PM
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#53
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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That's quite the vote of confidence in The Netherlands, care to expand?
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25th March 2017, 05:53 PM
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#54
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I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
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Nobody was really jumping out at me as a winner of semi 2 to be honest! I could see The Netherlands being a bit of a dark horse in the sense that it's a great song first of all. Secondly I'm sure their live vocal is going to be amazing so that's a big jury pull. Also I think the live version could elevate it in the way 'Sound Of Silence' was, cause I always felt that to be a bit lacking in the studio version. Ultimately like I said it's going to come down to the staging, but we know the Dutch CAN pull it off, so until the 3rd May when it all goes tits up they are my pick.
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25th March 2017, 06:00 PM
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#55
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,176 User: 10,139
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Yeah with listening to Netherlands more it's growing a bit but also seeming like a bit of a dark horse. I don't think winner or semi winner but I keep saying something is going to knock it out the park live and I think it seems like one of the biggest possibilities for that after racking my brains. With the right simple staging the harmonies and vocals could really be onto something.
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31st March 2017, 12:02 AM
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#56
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New Entry
Joined: 30 March 2017
Posts: 9 User: 28,265 
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QUOTE(Cameron @ Mar 18 2017, 11:26 PM)  I just want Switzerland, Azerbaijan and Denmark to somehow all qualify. I know Switzerland are esc flops but I live in hope Hello everybody - newbie. You live in hope that Switzerland makes it - I live in hope that Portugal somehow cracks the Top 5 like one time ever. Would be beyond cool! For the record, I like the quirky songs and I wish there were more songs in languages other than English. You can do really interesting bilingual things and had Bosnia and H dropped the rap they'd have had a good solid entry with Zero English in it (I kinda liked it in a guilty pleasure kind of way). I am still furious with Albania for destroying their song. I literally did a dance around my living room when Czech Republic finally got through last year. As for underdogs, unfortunately, as delighted as I am to see Queen Valentina back amongst her subjects, I don't see her making it through. I admire San Marino's pluck for trying though - it would be fascinating to see what they'd do if they actually won, can you imagine it? I enjoy most things they send, usually for its car crash qualities I concede, but I was impressed that they managed to come up with a staging that made 'I Didn't Know' surprisingly entertaining. I'm disappointed by Slovenia - I did not have hate for ManuElla, it was fine for what it was, adequately entertaining cheese staged insanely. This time I'm underwhelmed because I enjoyed Omar Naber back in 2005 and was expecting more from him this turn around. Perhaps he's fallen to the curse of diminishing returns? I was wondering about those people who have equalled or improved upon a past performance, these are the names I can get so far (Udo Jόrgens, Johnny Logan, Vicki Leandros, Elisabeth Andreassen, Carola, Wind, Poli Genova, Valentina Monetta, Danny Montell and Cheryl Baker from Buzz's Fizz; anybody get anymore?) Out of 62 Contests (counting this one) and you've only maybe got no more than twenty people tops whose ranking stayed solid or improved between appearance. The odds are not in his favour I shouldn't think. Alas, as much as I like that Czech Republic are trying things and throwing interesting people at it - and there's usually nothing more unusual than a jazz singer at Eurovision, I agree with those who think they might well be in trouble. Albania, Finland, Georgia, Portugal and UK all have ballads/slower numbers, anything that's unusual or upbeat is going to be in with a shot in Semi 1. But it Czech Republic are to stand a real chance, they are going to have to make big strides in their staging, particularly as we know that this although Ukraine at ABSOLUTELY NOT going to win, they will inevitably stage the hell out of what is probably going to be another Marmite entry from them (I was a '1944' early adopter, so to speak, largely because I knew something of the history so I had the context and because I tend to like quirky entries but I am not a fan of this one. It might improve for me, but I don't think it will.) I too am intrigued by Belgium - contemporary without being hideously EDM, quite cool. Interesting, if they can bring some awesome staging, we have ourselves a proper dark horse here. I also love the happiness of NAVIband and appreciate that they will be singing in Belarussian - hurrah! Semi 2 suddenly got much more open now Russia are gone baring some kind of miracle. It's a terrific shame really, but given the state of relations between those two countries I am not in the least surprised, the whys and where-fors are unfortunately irrelevant, the two countries are in such a weird place vis a vis each other rationality has nothing to do with it. The consequence of course opens up a spot for one of the entries in the 'Maybe' pile to sneak through and its not Ovidiu levels of unlucky, I am given to understand that Channel One have pre-selected Yuliya Samoylova for 2018 if she's DQ-ed this time, so we shall see her rock the stage and being totally awesome next year and she'll no doubt have a lot of support behind her. It'd be fascinating to see how they manage to present the song, whatever it is, especially when compared to Poland in 2015. I will file it under 'something to look forward to' and 'you go girl' when it comes. And anybody else loving the transition from O'G3NE to 'Yodel It'? That's gonna be delightfully random. Can't hardly wait! |
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31st March 2017, 11:15 AM
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#57
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 20 January 2011 Posts: 5,907 User: 12,837
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Ok, gonna have a crack at my predictions now..
Semi Final 1 :: May 09, 2017 01  Sweden ∙ Robin Bengtsson I Can't Go On02  Belgium ∙ Blanche City Lights03  Azerbaijan ∙ DiHaj Skeletons04  Greece ∙ Demy This Is Love05  Australia ∙ Isaiah Don't Come Easy06  Poland ∙ Kasia Mos Flashlight07  Armenia ∙ Artsvik Fly With Me08  Iceland ∙ Svala Paper09  Latvia ∙ Triana Park Line10  Montenegro ∙ Slavko Kalezic Space11  Moldova ∙ SunStroke Project Hey, Mamma!12  Portugal ∙ Salvador Sobral Amar Pelos Dois13  Cyprus ∙ Hovig Gravity14  Czech Republic ∙ Martina Bαrta My Turn15  Finland ∙ Norma John Blackbird16  Albania ∙ Lindita World17  Georgia ∙ Tamara Gachechiladze Keep the Faith18  Slovenia ∙ Omar Naber On My WayHonestly I feel like this semi is infinitely tougher than the second one and this could go so many ways really. I tried to look at it based on jury votes, televotes, running order and neighboring countries voting etc and I think this could be the result. - I feel like Sweden, Belgium and Azerbaijan are the only ones I'm 100% confident will make it through in this semi. Strong entries bound to do well both in the semi and final. - Greece and Australia are like 90% likely to qualify. I feel like the hate Isaiah is getting won't be reflected by the public because he's a young boy and the song really is beautiful. It won't do as well as the last two years though. - Poland will do well on the televotes again and in my opinion is the "boring ballad" (imo) out of Poland/Portugal/Finland that is most likely to do well mostly thanks to a huge number of Polish immigrants all over Europe. - Armenia will do well if the show will be a spectacle as I suspect it will be (based on the video). - Iceland, Montenegro and Latvia are total wildcards. They could really place anywhere from 8th to 18th in my opinion. Iceland should hopefully get good scores from the juries (she's great live) and somewhat good scores from the televote. Montenegro will possibly get a big number of votes from the televotes but I could easily swap this one with Moldova as the televote hog. Latvia will greatly benefit from its closing slot and that could be just what it needs to close given that she performs well. - I think Portugal and Finland will flop. This is mostly based on the fact that I feel both of these songs have been greatly hyped by euro fans and (in Salvador's case) by their home nations themselves. No really in most polls that I've seen where Portugal is high up it seems that a HUGE number of the voters are from portuguese voters. See escstats for example where Portugal is 4th, and the nation with the most voters on that chart is.. Portugal with 142 voters. They have almost 50 more voters than the second highest nation. I really just don't see the televoters eating this up and even have a hard time seeing the juries place them above a lot of the other songs so I think they'll place midfield at best. - Slovenia and Georgia are really the only two countries I think are destined to be non-qualifiers this year. Will do Semi 2 later. |
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2nd April 2017, 10:43 PM
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#58
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New Entry
Joined: 30 March 2017
Posts: 9 User: 28,265
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Semi 1 is full of female full-on ballads (Albania, Georgia, Finland, Poland plus AQ UK) and Semi 2 full of male pop-ballads (Austria, Bulgaria, Ireland, Israel) right? We could start by dropping the song from that list we don't like the most and assume they will cancel each other out in the voting.
Just for fun, I thought I might consider matters based purely on geographical voting. It turns out that a random draw just shows up the regional voting patterns as much as a deliberately computer-generated draw would have. If this is largely driven by a lot of political voting, here's what might well happen - Semi 1 - a) Greece and Cyprus will vote for each other and could form a Med bloc with AQ Italy. b) assume that the AQ UK, Cyprus and Greece will rain points on Australia and vice versa (UK, Cyprus, Oz = Commonwealth, lot of Greeks in Oz) c) mini-Nordic bloc, Sweden, Finland and Iceland d) Azerbaijan and Armenia might deliberately try to knock each other out - both are so out there it seems less likely that they will both survive e) Central European bloc - Poland, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovenia f) AQ Spain will try to save Portugal g) some Balkans points exchanged h) Sweden, Australia, UK, possibly Finland, Iceland, possibly one Eurasian country will throw a bone to Belgium so long as she's good Likely Qualifiers = Greece, Cyprus, Australia, Sweden plus one other Nordic, one Eurasian country likely Azerbaijan, probably Poland and Latvia, one Balkans state either Moldova or Montenegro, Belgium Definitely out = Georgia, Albania, Slovenia Might be out = Czech Republic, Armenia, Belgium if she stuffs it and there's a lot of Eastern bloc voting, either Finland or Iceland and Portugal Semi 2 - (assuming absence of Russia) a) five Balkan countries, assume around three are safe b) mini-Nordic bloc Norway and Denmark c) AQ France will likely support Switzerland d) potential Mitteleuropa bloc AQ Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Hungary e) AQ Ukraine teams up with Belarus and backs Estonia and Lithuania f) Israel might find itself disadvantaged - no neighbours left unless it becomes a sixth Balkans state g) one country that wasn't getting through now is h) Ireland could struggle even more Likely Qualifiers = Netherlands, Austria (one other Mittel-state possible), one ex-Soviet country probably Estonia (probably between them and Belarus), Switzerland, Serbia, FYR Macedonia, Bulgaria, probably both Norway and Denmark because its the easier Semi and they are usually solid Might be out = Israel (no neighbours), Croatia, Hungary, Lithuania, Belarus (depending on performance) Definitely out = San Marino Bit disturbing that's that easy to whittle-down based just on where places are on the map, isn't it? |
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4th April 2017, 10:21 PM
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#59
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Going to make a few new predictions now we have a running order and have seen LEP:
Semi-Final One Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 02 01 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On02 01 05 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois03 04 02 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights04 06 06 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me05 10 03  Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy06 03 13 Greece: Demy - This Is Love07 09 07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons08 05 15 Latvia: Triana Park - Line09 17 04 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird10 07 14 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma11 11 10 Albania: Lindita - World12 08 16 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight13 13 11 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity14 16 09 Iceland: Svala - Paper15 18 08 Czech Republic: Martina Bαrta - My Turn16 14 12 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith17 12 17 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way18 15 18 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - SpaceSemi-Final Two Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 01 01  Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess02 02 04  Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive03 09 02  Denmark: Anja - Where I Am04 08 03  The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows05 06 07  Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life06 03 12  Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!07 04 11  Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona08 10 05  Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep09 14 06  Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo10 07 13  Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air11 13 08  F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone12 05 17  Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning13 15 09  Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment14 11 15  Hungary: Joci Pαpai - Origo15 18 10  Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly16 16 14  Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try17 12 19  Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution18 17 16  Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend19 19 18  San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The NightMuch more difficult without a running order but here we go... Final Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 01 01  Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma02 02 02 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess03 03 07 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On04 07 03 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights05 04 08 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois06 13 04 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy07 14 05  France: Alma - Requiem08 08 13 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me09 16 06 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am10 06 17 Greece: Demy - This Is Love11 09 14 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life12 05 20 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!13 10 15 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep14 11 16 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive15 18 11 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows16 17 12 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons17 12 18 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona18 24 09 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird19 23 10  United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You20 15 22  Ukraine: O.Torvald - Time21 19 24 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma22 20 23 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air23 22 21  Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover24 25 19 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo25 21 25 Latvia: Triana Park - Line26 26 26  Germany: Levina - Perfect Life
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4th April 2017, 10:27 PM
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#60
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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If Portugal didn't even win its own televote then I don't think it's going to win the televote in the semi-final!
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